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2015-16 International Prospects

Giants To Sign Lucius Fox

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10:10am: When the deal is official, it will be for $6MM, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter.

8:34am: The Giants have agreed to sign shortstop Lucius Fox to an approximately $6.5MM bonus, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Fox, who’ll officially sign out of the Bahamas, entered the July 2 period as a consensus top-five prospect.

Fox had been said to be a Dodgers target, but news emerged yesterday that he was likely heading to their NL West rivals. He was a consensus top-five available player, with Sanchez and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel placing him third and Ben Badler of Baseball America slotting Fox in the fourth spot.

This signings demonstrates some of the interesting interplay between the draft and international market. Fox is a native of the Bahamas, but had been playing high school ball in Florida. But he was successfully able to sign as an international free agent after returning to the Bahamas and winning a petition with Major League Baseball. That gave the MVP Sports Group client a chance to cash in on a much bigger bonus than he likely would have achieved through the draft.

Fox is said to be an excellent athlete, and he offers a high-contact bat — though he lacks power. He could be a quality up-the-middle defender, per Badler (subscription link), who says there’s a possibility that Fox will end up in center. McDaniel notes that Fox could also play second, but may also have a chance at sticking at his natural shortstop and will likely begin his professional career there.

San Francisco had just $2,130,900 in available pool capacity coming into the day, per Baseball America, meaning that it will owe a significant penalty fee on top of the dollars owed to Fox. And the Giants will be among those teams that is heavily restricted from major spending (bonuses of $300K or more) over the next two signing periods.

Cubs Sign Slate Of International Prospects To Large Bonuses

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The Cubs have made a splash early in the international market by locking up a lengthy list of players to significant bonuses. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first reported the bulk of the signings.

Among the players inked, the biggest bonus goes to Yonathan Sierra Estiwal, an outfielder from the Dominican Republic, who’ll get $2.5MM. He earned the 16th slot on the MLB.com board, which noted that there could be some power in his long frame, while Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked him outside the top thirty available players.

Another $2MM will go to countryman Aramis Ademan, a shortstop, whose signing was first reported by Ben Badler of Baseball America with Sanchez adding the cash value. Badler placed him within his top dozen players, explaining that he offers more in the way of solid promise than huge upside. A contact hitter with minimal power and uninspiring speed, Ademan shows promise as an on-base threat and is a smooth, competent fielder at short with solid arm strength.

Also checking in with seven-figure bonuses were Venezuelan shortstop Yonathan Perlaza ($1.3MM), Panamanian catcher Miguel Amaya ($1.25MM), and Dominican corner infielder Christopher Martinez ($1MM). All of those players earned top-thirty billing in at least one of the above-linked rankings. Sanchez adds that righty Yunior Perez is also going to Chicago for $600K.

Tally up those deals, and the total outlay stands at $7.65MM. That’s more than double the club’s $3,230,700 total pool allocation (via Baseball America), meaning that the Cubs will sacrifice the ability to hand out any $300K+ bonuses for the next two years and incur a 100% tax on its overage. The club could still trade for some additional spending slots to offset some of those penalty fees.

Twins To Sign Wander Javier

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The Twins have agreed to a deal with Dominican shortstop Wander Javier, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. Javier rated as the No. 9 prospect in this year’s international class, per Badler. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs ranked him fifth, and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez ranked him eighth.

Javier will earn a $4MM bonus, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter, matching the figure reported by McDaniel dating back to early Spring. Sanchez’s scouting report indicates that Javier has plus raw power and a plus throwing arm with a chance to stick at shortstop, though there’s also a possibility that his 6’0″, 165-pound frame could grow to the point where he’ll have to move to third. McDaniel writes that he ran a 7.01 in the 60-yard dash in February (50-grade) and could pick up a step or two as he matures. He has a raw hitting approach writes Badler (subscription required), and while his swing can get long and flatten out, some scouts project above-average power down the line. Badler notes that tools like Javier’s are tough to come by in the draft, causing multiple teams to be drawn to his ceiling.

Rangers To Sign Leodys Taveras

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The Rangers have reached a deal with highly-regarded Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. He is the cousin of former big leaguer Willy Taveras.

BA had the highest grade on Taveras among international prospect evaluators, ranking him third overall on the basis of his strong overall skillset. Indeed, Badler writes that the youngster could ultimately possess five average or better tools when all is said and done. He is a switch hitter with a nice stroke and good strength given his frame. While he’ll need to work to improve his instincts to stick in center, says Badler, he has the speed and arm strength to develop into a good defender.

Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs largely concurred with that assessment, placing Taveras seventh on his board. MLB.com took a somewhat dimmer view, rating him 18th, due to the fact that Taveras could use some polishing at the plate.

Taveras will earn a $2.1MM bonus, Badler tweets. That is a good deal less than the $3MM expected for Taveras, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, and could leave some additional space for the Rangers, who have just over $4.5MM in total pool allocation.

The club is also said to have signed Venezuelan outfielder Miguel Aparicio, also per a Badler report. He’ll receive a $500K bonus. Badler rates him the 13th-best player available, citing his all-around tools.

Dodgers To Sign Yadier Alvarez, Other Top International Prospects

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The Dodgers have indeed agreed upon a $16MM bonus with Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (links to Twitter). That is expected to be the single largest payout given a single player on this year’s international market and is the second-largest bonus ever given to an international amateur, trailing only Yoan Moncada’s $31.5MM bonus with the Red Sox. Alvarez is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council and Rick Thurman, Rafael Nieves and Nelson Montes.

Alvarez popped onto the scene earlier this year with a big fastball and exciting slider. He has drawn some mixed reviews, but obviously the Dodgers are believers. The opportunity to sign Alvarez, among other players, was cited as a primary reason that the organization declined to top the Red Sox’ offer for Yoan Moncada this spring.

In the eyes of Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, Alvarez was the best player available on the basis of his mid-to-upper nineties heater, plus slider, and promising change. He also possesses good athleticism and good overall physical tools, leading McDaniel to believe that he has a good chance of harnessing his stuff. Ben Badler of Baseball America expresses more concern with Alvarez’s lack of a track record and current tendency toward being wild, explaining that there is plenty of risk to go with the obvious upside.

Los Angeles has also agreed with outfielder Starling Heredia on a $2.6MM bonus and with infielder Ronny Brito on a $2MM bonus, per Sanchez. Those players, both hailing from the Dominican Republic, also rated amongst the thirty best international prospects available according to most analysts. MLB.com placed Heredia fifth on its list, citing his “raw power and projectable body.” McDaniel had Brito in the 15th place on his board, noting that he has the upside to develop into a prospect on the order of J.P. Crawford if he can pair a useful bat with good speed and fielding ability.

With just these three signings alone, Los Angeles will easily land well over its fairly meager international spending allocation of $2,020,300. Every dollar spent above that mark will be taxed at a 100% rate, meaning the Dodgers are already nearing $40MM in total obligations.

2015-16 International Signing Period Now Open

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Today marks the opening of the 2015-16 international signing period, during which so-called “July 2” prospects can begin inking deals with MLB clubs. Every MLB team has been allocated a series of bonus slots, all of which may be traded, with certain restrictions. Baseball America provides a tally of each team’s total available pool this year. Clubs that spend over their allotment face escalating penalties, ranging from 100% taxes on overages to a two-year ban on $300K+ international bonuses (for going over 15% above the total allocation). This year, the team with the top overall pool allocation — the Diamondbacks ($5,393,900) — is ineligible to spend more than that amount on any single player, and is expected to deal away some of its capacity since it cannot put it to full use. Likewise, the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees face that limitation due to budget-busting deals in the 2014-15 July 2 period. And numerous additional clubs are expected to incur future signing limitations in the coming signing period. While most of the players subject to the signing rules are a long ways away from the big leagues, there are undoubtedly impact players among them — some of whom could come up in trade talks long before they’re close to the majors.

Here’s the latest on the market, which will gear up quickly, as well as some key resources to get acquainted with:

  • As has been widely expected — and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reported several months back — the Dodgers are set to sign Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez to a $16MM bonus, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (Twitter links). Passan does caution that it’s best to wait until Alvarez formally signs to declare his market closed. Los Angeles has just over $2MM in spending capacity, meaning that it would start off with a $14MM overage tax on its bill and take on a two-year signing ban for adding Alvarez alone.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just provided one major market shift, reporting that the Giants appear to be in the lead for shortstop Lucius Fox, who landed third overall on Sanchez’s list of the thirty best international prospects available on the market.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides his final top-thirty prospect list, with detailed scouting reports on all those players ranked as well as notes on the teams favored to sign them. He also breaks down each MLB team’s expected overall approach heading into July 2.
  • Likewise, McDaniel has produced his final pre-signing board, which also includes his own assessments of many of the most highly-regarded names and projections of their landing spots. While Badler rates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first overall, McDaniel places him fourth, giving the top spot to the aforementioned Alvarez.

Giants The New Favorites To Sign Bahamian Shortstop Lucius Fox

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Though the industry expectation has long been that the Dodgers would reel in highly coveted international shortstop Lucius Fox, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez now reports (via Twitter) that the division-rival Giants have leapfrogged the Dodgers as the favorites to land Fox when tomorrow’s signing period kicks off. In fact, according to Sanchez, the Dodgers are no longer even in the race to sign Fox.

Fox, a native of the Bahamas, moved to the United States and attended American Heritage High School in Florida. However, the 18-year-old recently moved back to the Bahamas and petitioned with Major League Baseball to be an international free agent as opposed being subject to the draft. The league approved his request and declared Fox a free agent, making the MVP Sports Group client eligible to sign as an international free agent, beginning tomorrow.

Sanchez ranks Fox third among this year’s class of international prospects — a ranking with which Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel agrees. Ben Badler of Baseball America recently ranked Fox as the No. 4 prospect in this year’s international class. Fox is projected by McDaniel to land a $6MM signing bonus, although it’s certainly possible that the change in likeliest landing spot has come as a result of an increase in the Giants’ willingness to spend.

In Sanchez’s free scouting report, he notes that Fox is considered by some to be a five-tool player and the best athlete in the class. A switch-hitter, Fox has a line-drive stroke and has a knack for putting the ball in play, per Sanchez. Badler notes in his own scouting report (subscription required and highly recommended) that some scouts feel he’ll move to center field. He adds that Fox has little power, but calls him a plus-plus runner with a chance to hit at the top of a big league lineup. McDaniel feels that second base is a possibility as well, but says he should start his career at shortstop and has a real chance to be a regular contributor at any of the three up-the-middle position

Cuban Outfielder Yadiel Hernandez Defects

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Highly regarded outfielder Yadiel Hernandez has left Cuba’s national team — which was playing in North Carolina — in hopes of achieving MLB free agency, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. Hernandez placed 16th on BA’s most recent list of top Cuban prospects.

That being said, Hernandez is not a prospect in the sense we use the term for players already playing within the MLB hierarchy. He is already 27 years old and an established player in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, so it would seem that he profiles more as a near-term contributor. Because of his age and experience, Hernandez will not be subject to international spending limitations (as with countryman Hector Olivera, most recently).

Badler explains that Hernandez is a small and not overly toolsy player who profiles as a corner outfielder. That seems to be a rather unexciting profile, at least at first glance.

But the left-handed hitter has excellent on-base ability. Indeed, he slashed .369/.509/.535 over 369 plate appearances in his most recent campaign in Cuba, walking 77 times — good for a 20.9% walk rate (which is higher than all currently qualifying MLB hitters, for some frame of reference). In its full scouting report (subscription required, and recommended), Baseball America likened his overall skill set to that of Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava.

Quick Hits: Heyward, Segura, Giants, Joseph

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Jason Heyward got off to a slow start with the Cardinals but he posted a .960 OPS and five home runs over 100 plate appearances from May 27 to June 27.  As Heyward tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the improvement came in no small part due to intensive work on his swing, and it seems like things are finally clicking for the right fielder.  If Heyward can keep this hot hitting going throughout the season, it will send his free agent value soaring; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has speculated that if Heyward could land a $200MM contract if he delivers a big season and proves he can be a consistent force at the plate.  Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • The Brewers haven’t told inquiring clubs that they’re not trading Jean Segura, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes, but the team would clearly want a lot in return for the shortstop.  Haudricourt ranks Milwaukee’s roster in terms of likely trade targets, and the only seeming untouchables being Jonathan Lucroy and young arms like Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, Jimmy Nelson and others.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle believes that the Giants’ top priorities heading into trade season are fixing the bench, improving the outfield if Hunter Pence and Nori Aoki have longer-term injuries, and addressing the rotation.  He adds that while it seems like San Francisco needs to dabble in the market for a front of the rotation starter, it might be too tall of an order.  Over the weekend, Giants GM Bobby Evans acknowledged that it could be hard to pull off a deal for a high-end starter given the team’s glut of pitchers with limited trade value.
  • Phillies prospect Tommy Joseph is being shifted from catcher to first base, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports.  Multiple concussions and a wrist injury limited Joseph to just 63 total games in 2013-14, and after suffering another concussion this season, the decision was made to end Joseph’s catching career for the sake of his health.  The Giants drafted Joseph in the second round of the 2009 draft and he came to Philadelphia as part of the Hunter Pence trade package.
  • The Padres may “take a more measured approach” to their spending when the July 2 international market opens, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  The Padres are already scouting the 2016-17 international class and may be looking to spend more heavily next year when several big-market teams will be under bonus penalties and out of the market for the top prospects.

West Notes: Martin, Harrison, Bradley, Giants

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Here’s the latest from the game’s western divisions:

  • Rangers outfielder Leonys Martin may be fighting for his roster spot over the next week, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. The speedy outfielder is sporting a .270 OBP on the year, and with Delino DeShields and Josh Hamilton set to return before long, the club may soon have viable replacements in center. Martin can still be optioned, so Texas can give him some time in the minors to work things out if it wishes.
  • The Rangers also have new options in the rotation with Matt Harrison seemingly nearing readiness for a big league start, Grant further writes. A six-man rotation is possible, says manager Jeff Banister, as is the potential of resting one of the current rotation members with a DL stint. Regardless of the team’s course of action, it’s remarkable that we’re at this point, as it once seemed that Harrison might never pitch again.
  • Diamondbacks hurler Archie Bradley is headed for a visit with Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion on his balky right shoulder, Nick Piecoro reports (Twitter links). The club’s physician found only tendinitis, but Bradley continued to feel discomfort in his latest rehab outing. It’s far too soon to speculate, of course, but at a minimum it seems it’ll be a while longer until Arizona gets Bradley back into its rotation.
  • The Giants are working hard on the July 2 market, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs tweets. San Francisco is “trying hard” to land Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox and may be the single team most closely pursuing Eddy Julio Martinez, says McDaniel. But the sense in the industry is still that the Dodgers will get both players, he adds.
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