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Archives for November 2014

Cafardo On Lester, Cespedes, Porcello, Miller

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that some in the Red Sox organization see Xander Bogaerts as a young Hanley Ramirez.  “They are both fun-loving kids who love playing the game,” Red Sox first base/outfield coach Arnie Beyeler said. “I didn’t see Hanley after the Dominican League, but I remember him as a kid who once he got his chance just did things better than everyone else. He ran better, threw better, hit better. It was easy to see that he was going to develop into a very good baseball player. And you see the same things with Xander.”  More from today’s column..

  • Major league sources tell Cafardo that the Cubs are very serious about Jon Lester while the Giants are becoming more serious about him.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are thinking about getting serious about Lester but haven’t committed to doing so.  The Red Sox remain interested but it remains to be seen how far they’ll go.
  • If the Red Sox sign Jon Lester, Cafardo can see them moving Yoenis Cespedes for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter such as Reds hurlers Mat Latos or Mike Leake.  The Reds would have a need for Cespedes’s bat, but they would also probably have a need for shortstop Deven Marrero.  Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto would cost Cespedes and maybe two top prospects, but it would be tempting for Boston.
  • The Tigers could also be a match in a Cespedes deal.  If those talks were to take place, the Red Sox would have more interest in Rick Porcello than Anibal Sanchez.  David Price could be a possibility if the Red Sox whiff on Lester, but that would be costly.
  • It’s strange to some that the Yankees haven’t re-signed closer David Robertson by now.  One rival AL East GM wonders if the Yankees might change direction and go after someone like Andrew Miller, a power lefty, to go along with Dellin Betances.
  • It’s hard to tell whether the Nationals are serious about trading Jordan Zimmermann because they have the resources to sign him and he’s their best pitcher. “It doesn’t hurt to listen,” said one NL executive about GM Mike Rizzo’s strategy. “If you get overwhelmed, you do it. If you don’t, you keep him. Pretty simple, actually.”  Cafardo writes that the Red Sox, Rangers, and Cubs seem to have the pieces to get a deal done.
  • There are teams interested in Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz.  “There’s a lot of talent there that hasn’t come out,” one NL scout said.

AL East Notes: Sandoval, Ramirez, Rays

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Red Sox owner John Henry made comments back in April that seemed to imply he was done with signing players over the age of 30 to monster contracts.  However, Boston’s signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez show that’s not quite the case.  “John Henry comes from a world where everything has a value,” General Manager Ben Cherington said, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “Sometimes it’s worth investing a lot if you think you’re getting really good talent back or performance. The age thing, of course, is part of the conversation because we all know players age and when they get into their 30s, historically speaking, there starts to be a decline. But when we get in a room and talk about offseason planning, it’s never pursue this guy or don’t pursue this guy just for these rules. It’s all about what makes sense, what fits on the team.”  More from the AL East..

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Tomas, Red Sox, Angels

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On this date in 2012, Mets third baseman David Wright agreed a seven-year, $122MM contract extension.  The new money, when combined with his previously exercised 2013 club option, made for an eight-year, $138MM pact.  Wright slashed just .269/.324/.374 last year while dealing with a left shoulder injury and will look to get back on track in 2015.  This week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Athletics, Braves Discussing Justin Upton, Evan Gattis

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SUNDAY, 8:11am: There have not been any recent trade talks between the Braves and A’s, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter).  Meanwhile, a source close to the A’s tells John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (on Twitter) that Oakland will not be trading Jeff Samardzija to the Braves.

FRIDAY, 11:39pm: After pulling off a blockbuster earlier tonight, the Athletics are perhaps unsurprisingly exploring more deals. The team is in conversations with the Braves regarding outfielder Justin Upton and catcher Evan Gattis, reports John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).

The precise nature, timing, and progress of these talks remains unclear; indeed, it is not even apparent that both players would be under consideration in the same deal. While it is not difficult to imagine that Oakland could make use of those players — particularly if still other moves are being contemplated — neither do they jump out as obvious fits.

The Athletics did sacrifice a good bit of right-handed power in the Jon Lester deal, of course. But the club just added an everyday right-handed bat in Billy Butler. (And with respect to Gattis, if he is viewed as a catching option, Oakland has Derek Norris behind the dish.) More to the point, perhaps, the addition of another bat that requires time in the corner outfield would raise the question of what the team will do with a mix that includes the right-handed-hitting Craig Gentry and lefties Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick.

Hickey notes that starter Jeff Samardzija could be involved in talks involving the aforementioned players. From my perspective, though, it makes little sense for Atlanta to chase after a one-year arm of that kind. Of course, a three-team scenario could be imagined that might make sense of that concept. It should also be remembered that the A’s have a stock of arms beyond their projected Opening Day rotation, with A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker readying to return and carrying plenty of excess value upside.

Non-Tender Candidate: Gordon Beckham

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The Angels acquired infielder Gordon Beckham from the White Sox last August. Now the club has to decide if he will be tendered a contract. According to MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, he’s projected to earn $5MM in his final spin through arbitration. Coming off arguably the worst season of his career, the expense might outweigh the benefits.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles AngelsAny discussion of Beckham inevitably digresses to 2009, when the then 22-year-old posted 2.5 WAR in two-thirds of a season. In parts of five seasons since his breakout, he’s managed just 2.8 total WAR over 2,528 plate appearances. Last year, he struggled to a .226/.271/.348 line and -0.2 WAR, although he was much better with the Angels (.286/.328/.429) during a brief 61 plate appearance audition.

Beckham, now 28, is best viewed as a utility fielder. While the Angels did use him a few times at shortstop, he’s most successful at second and third base. He’s maintained strong contact rates throughout his career, but he’s never managed to produce much power after his rookie season. It’s worth noting that Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field – where Beckham spent most of his career – is among the best offensive environments in baseball. In other words, the move to Los Angeles shouldn’t help his power.

Beckham’s performance in 2014 makes a trade unlikely. His $5MM projected salary is only affordable to a large market club in desperate need of middle infield depth. Incidentally, the Angels are perhaps the only team to fit that description. Howie Kendrick and David Freese have an intimate familiarity with the disabled list, which makes a player like Beckham a useful handcuff.

His presence on the roster, along with that of Grant Green, may give the Angels more confidence shopping Kendrick and Freese, both of whom have appeared in trade rumors. They’re free agents after 2015. Confidence should not be confused with reliance. While it’s possible Los Angeles could enter the season with Beckham, it’s unlikely they would plan to use him as a starter. The club is poised to contend in 2015, and Beckham’s bat would present a considerable hole in the lineup. If Kendrick or Freese are dealt, I expect the club to target infielders like Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, or Jed Lowrie.

Other infielders who offer similar versatility include Emilio Bonifacio, Kelly Johnson, Ed Lucas, and Alberto Callaspo. Since they should all cost less than Beckham’s $5MM projection, the most likely outcome appears to be a non-tender situation. The going rate for 0.0 to 1.0 WAR middle infielders appears to be between $500K and $3MM. The Angels do need a player like Beckham, so he could be re-signed at a lesser rate. His relative youth assures that some club will hand him a bench role.

Quick Hits: Hunter, Fowler, Bargains

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Here’s the latest from around the league.

Tigers Notes: Masterson, Rotation, Relief

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On Thursday, we learned the Tigers inquired about free agent starter Justin Masterson. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press speculates that Masterson could be open to a one-year contract to re-establish his value. Given his history of past success – including an All-Star appearance as recently as 2013 – he could provide affordable value. In my opinion, Detroit makes a lot of sense for Masterson if he wants to sign a pillow contract. It’s a high profile ball club with a good chance to make the postseason and a neutral stadium.

Poll: The Next Athletic To Be Traded

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Many analysts believe the Athletics aren’t done making trades after consummating yesterday’s blockbuster deal with the Blue Jays. Oakland traded Josh Donaldson to Toronto for Brett Lawrie and three prospects (MLBTR link). While the value is easy to see for the Blue Jays, the deal also makes sense for the A’s as part of a series of moves, according to Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. For at least a week, it’s been thought that the additions of Billy Butler and Ike Davis could signal a trade of Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, or John Jaso. We’ve also heard increasing chatter about Jeff Samardzija, including recent ties to the White Sox.

Moss, 31, fits the sell-high mold of the A’s. After three straight seasons of at least 20 home runs, MLBTR estimates he’ll earn $7.1MM via arbitration. He’s club controlled through 2016. As an aging, increasingly expensive slugger with questionable defense, he seems like the perfect trade candidate. His power numbers saw a downturn in 2014 due to a late season hip injury, although he memorably bashed two home runs in the Wild Card game. There are few comparable deals for left-handed designated hitters with about two-years of club control. One example might be Seth Smith, who the A’s dealt for a season of Luke Gregerson prior to 2014. Moss is probably slightly more valuable than Smith, who cost less but was due to hit free agency after just one season.

Reddick, a left-handed outfielder entering his age 28 season, could make for an intriguing option. Unlike Moss, Reddick rates as a plus defender. In an injury riddled season, he quietly punished right-handed pitching with a .280/.330/.519 line in 288 plate appearances. He’s an obvious platoon candidate, but his defense is good enough to justify an everyday role for a second division club. Reddick is estimated to earn $3.7MM in arbitration and is club controlled through 2016.

Jaso is likely the roster’s sell-low candidate. The erstwhile catcher emerged as a viable designated hitter against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, clubs may be skittish about using him as a catcher – he ended the season on the disabled list with a concussion. The 31-year-old is thought to earn about $3.3MM in his final season of club control.

Samardzija is perhaps the most high profile of Oakland’s trade targets. The ace is entering his age 30 season coming off the best year of his career. He’s one season away from free agency. The A’s dealt their top prospect and several other notable players to acquire Samardzija and Jason Hammel during the season. Undoubtedly, Oakland would like to add an important piece of the future with any Samardzija trade. Recent rumors link the A’s to White Sox infielders Alexei Ramirez, Marcus Semien, and Tim Anderson. If Samardzija is willing to negotiate an extension as part of a deal (unlikely but not impossible), it could increase his trade value.

Other A’s who could prove expendable include Scott Kazmir, Craig Gentry, Sam Fuld, and Sean Doolittle. Kazmir is under contract for just one more season, although he may work better as a mid-season target. Gentry draws some of the best defensive marks in the league and hits well against left-handed pitching. He’s a useful complementary piece on any roster with a $1.5MM estimated price tag and two years of club control. Fuld also supplies good defense, except his bat isn’t as easily leveraged. He’s set to earn about $1.6MM this offseason via arbitration and can be controlled through 2016. As for Doolittle, the A’s may seem unlikely to trade him after his breakout 2014, but they do have a history of selling their relief aces at peak value.

AL Notes: Samardzija, Donaldson

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Here’s the latest from the AL as we continue to digest turkey and the Josh Donaldson blockbuster.

  • Earlier today, we learned the White Sox and A’s were discussing a trade for Jeff Samardzija. Shortstop Alexei Ramirez may be the A’s prime target, but they also like infield prospect Tim Anderson and utility fielder Marcus Semien, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Some view Anderson, 22 next season, as the second best prospect in Chicago’s system after pitcher Carlos Rodon. Semien, 24, has looked overmatched in 326 major league plate appearances, but he’s featured reliable power, speed, and position flexibility at the Triple-A level. It’s worth wondering if the Sox would deal a top prospect like Anderson for just one season of Samardzija – especially with an apparent buyers market for pitchers.
  • Donaldson credits part of his 2012 offensive breakout to studying the swing of new teammate Jose Bautista, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. According to Donaldson, he’s watched “thousands of hours” worth of Bautista swings (that’s at least 83 days of swing analysis if you want to take the hyperbole at face value).
  • The Blue Jays may feel good about their recent moves, but they won’t boast, reports Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. The club hasn’t reached the postseason since winning the World Series in 1993 – the longest such drought in baseball. While they have to feel good about the core of the lineup, there are plenty of holes on the roster. Second base, left field, and late innings relief are the most pressing areas, although the rotation and center field are notably thin too.

Quick Hits: Strop, Samardzija, Rays

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Cubs reliever Pedro Strop was in a car accident in the Dominican Republic Thursday, but he didn’t suffer any significant injuries, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports. Strop did require stitches in his left arm, but he is reportedly “doing fine,” according to a team spokesperson. Strop, 29, was a key part of the Cubs’ bullpen in 2014, posting a 2.21 ERA in with 10.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 61 innings. Here are more notes from around the big leagues. Here’s more from around the big leagues.

  • The White Sox aren’t the only team interested in Athletics starter Jeff Samardzija, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Four teams contacted the A’s about Samardzija just on Saturday morning. Still, teams might not want to give up top talent for a rental, which is what Samardzija, who is eligible for free agency after the 2015 season, probably would be. Billy Beane likely wouldn’t want to reach agreement on a Samardzija deal and then give his new team a negotiating window on an extension before completing the trade, and Samardzija would probably not be interested in an extension right now anyway. Another potential factor to keep in mind with a Samardzija deal is his team’s ability to extend a qualifying offer after 2015 — his new team would have that ability if a trade were to be completed now, but not if a trade were done during the season. One scenario would be for Beane to wait until Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are off the market to complete a deal.
  • The Rays have already traded three key pitchers from their 2014 staff (Jeremy Hellickson, Joel Peralta and Cesar Ramos), and they’re prepared to listen to more trade offers, although perhaps not always in earnest, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “We listen on everyone, but in many cases it’s for the comedic value more than anything else,” says team president Matt Silverman. Part of their motivation for being so active early in the offseason (also dropping Jose Molina, utilityman Sean Rodriguez and infielder Cole Figueroa from their 40-man roster in the last ten days) was the need to protect prospects from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft, Silverman says. The Rays added pitchers Jose Dominguez, Matt Andriese, and Grayson Garvin, infielder Ryan Brett, outfielder Mikie Mahtook and catcher Justin O’Conner to their 40-man roster last week.

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