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2014-15 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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After watching Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon depart, and then overhauling their roster this offseason, the Rays will rely on a strong young rotation to remain competitive in the AL East.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It was already going to be a transformative winter for the Rays with longtime team executive Matt Silverman taking over for Friedman as the team’s top baseball decision-maker, yet the club’s chain of command was further shaken up when Maddon exercised an out clause in his contract and left to manage the Cubs.  (The Rays’ tampering charge against Chicago is still unsettled.)  After a lengthy search for a new manager, Kevin Cash was hired to lead this new era of Rays history.  Though Cash has only a couple of years as a scout and two years as the Indians’ bullpen coach on his post-playing resume, he was considered by many to be a top managerial prospect, and in fact was almost hired by the Rangers earlier in the offseason.

The 37-year-old Cash is currently the youngest manager/head coach in any of the four major sports, which perhaps exemplifies the Rays’ overall offseason youth movement.  Tampa’s farm system was in need of rebuilding following several years of unproductive drafts, and thus almost all of the Rays’ moves this winter brought them back at least one pre-arbitration prospect in return.  Of all that young talent, Daniel Robertson is probably the best long-term prospect, and he looks to be Tampa Bay’s shortstop of the future.

For 2015, however, the youngster best positioned to help the club immediately is Steven Souza.  Ranked as the 37th-best prospect in the sport by Baseball America, Souza received just 26 plate appearances for the Nationals last season but is best known for his spectacular catch to clinch Jordan Zimmermann’s no-hitter.  Tampa Bay’s outfield mix includes Desmond Jennings playing mostly in left field, with Souza and Brandon Guyer (both right-handed hitters) sharing time with Kevin Kiermaier and David DeJesus (both left-handed hitters). Souza and Kiermaier will be given every opportunity to step up as everyday options.

The Rays overhauled their catching situation by releasing Jose Molina (eating his $2.75MM 2015 salary in the process) and trading Ryan Hanigan as part of their big three-team deal with the Padres and Nationals.  The newly-acquired Rene Rivera figures to see much of the time behind the plate, and while the veteran is better known for his excellent pitch-framing than his bat, Rivera posted a .252/.319/.432 line over 329 PAs in San Diego last season.

John Jaso will notably not be an option at catcher due to his concussion history, as the Rays will instead use him mostly at DH with perhaps some time at first base or even in left.  Jaso will essentially replace Matt Joyce’s role in Tampa’s lineup — the left-handed power source in need of a platoon partner due to struggles against lefties.MLB: Tampa Bay Rays-Photo Day

As usual, the Rays weren’t big players in free agency, with Asdrubal Cabrera’s one-year, $7.5MM deal accounting for almost all of their free agent spending.  He’ll add a veteran presence to the middle infield, though it remains to be seen where he’ll start. Going by his below-average career defensive metrics (-10.6 UZR/150 at shortstop, -2.5 UZR/150 at second base), Cabrera would be a better fit at the keystone.  With Cabrera filling one MI spot, Nick Franklin and Logan Forsythe will battle for playing time at the other, with two post-hype prospects (Hak-Ju Lee and 2008 first overall pick Tim Beckham) and minor league signee Alexi Casilla also in the hunt for playing time.

Despite losing two very versatile options in Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez, the Rays have retained much of their signature infield flexibility.  Furthermore, with Cabrera only signed for one year, the team has left the door open for its younger infielders to establish themselves going into 2016.

Questions Remaining

Once the Rays underachieved over the first few months of the 2014 season, it was only a matter of time before they pared down last year’s team-record $76.87MM payroll.  David Price, the biggest piece, was moved at last year’s trade deadline. The cost-cutting continued with Yunel Escobar (owed $13MM in 2015-16), Hanigan ($8MM in 2015-16), Zobrist ($7.5MM in 2015), and Joel Peralta ($2.5MM in 2015) all traded along with players like Rodriguez, Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson and Cesar Ramos who were becoming more expensive in arbitration.  The Rays took a chance with an “unsustainable“ payroll in 2014 in order to take a shot at a World Series, and their big bet simply didn’t pay off.

Zobrist’s defensive versatility and still-potent bat made him a 5.7 fWAR player in 2014 — a total topped by only 11 other players in baseball.  Given how 26 other teams outscored the Rays last season, losing Zobrist and Joyce’s lefty power will only make it harder for Tampa Bay to score runs.  While Wil Myers had a major sophomore slump in the wake of his 2013 AL Rookie Of The Year campaign, trading him is a bold move.  Clearly the Rays weren’t totally sold on Myers’ potential, yet given his high ceiling and Tampa’s need for young talent, Myers could eventually turn into a regret if he breaks out in San Diego.

Perhaps the bigger issue for the Rays is that in order to get into contention, they’ll need several players coming off tough seasons to get back on track.  Evan Longoria tops the list, as despite playing in all 162 games and posting 23 homers and 83 runs, he contributed only a .253/.320/.404 slash line and a career-low 107 wRC+.  Longoria already carries an outsized role with the Rays given his big contract and face-of-the-franchise status, and the team is now counting on him to an even greater extent to make up for the lineup’s lack of pop.  If Longoria’s 2014 season was the first hint of a decline phase, his contract could quickly become an albatross for the low-revenue Rays.

Tampa Bay also needs rebound years from James Loney and Grant Balfour, both of whom disappointed after signing expensive multi-year contracts last winter.  Loney produced only 0.9 fWAR over 651 PA, while Balfour struggled to a 4.91 ERA and 5.9 BB/9 and lost the closer’s job in June.  Both players could also be midseason trade candidates if they return to form and the Rays are out of the race.

Deal Of Note

Of all the Rays’ trades this winter, the Joyce-for-Kevin Jepsen swap was the only one that saw Tampa receive only Major League talent back in return.  Jepsen enjoyed the best season of his seven-year career in 2014, posting a 2.63 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 3.26 K/BB rate over 65 bullpen innings for the Angels.  The right-hander has been a solid relief option in two of the last three years (injuries hampered him in 2013) and at worst, he projects to be a good setup option for the Rays.

I say “at worst” since the back of the Tampa Bay bullpen is somewhat in flux right now, as Jake McGee is sidelined until late April due to elbow surgery.  McGee will certainly figure to get first crack at the closer’s job when he’s healthy given his outstanding 2014 season, and until he’s back, Brad Boxberger is likely the top choice as interim closer.  If McGee has a setback or Boxberger regresses a bit from his own excellent 2014 form (he allowed a .227 BABIP last year), then Jepsen figures to get the call ahead of Balfour, though Jepsen only has five career MLB saves.  All in all, a solid reliever like Jepsen was a good return for the Rays in exchange for a somewhat limited player in Joyce, who brings little defensive value and struggles against southpaws.

Overview

Taken as a whole, Silverman’s very busy offseason almost breaks down as a series of one-for-one replacements.  The Rays have a new veteran middle infielder (Cabrera for Escobar), a slugging lefty bat (Jaso for Joyce), a solid righty reliever (Jepsen for Peralta), a touted young outfielder (Souza for Myers) and a defensive ace at catcher (Rivera for Hanigan/Molina).  The irreplaceable piece is Zobrist, of course, though if Franklin or Forsythe step up at second and Longoria and Loney get hitting again, that will help fill the void.

Another internal replacement should come in the form of Matt Moore, who is slated to return from Tommy John surgery in late June or early July.  With Moore on the way back, the Rays felt comfortable in dealing Hellickson and using Nathan Karns, Burch Smith or Alex Colome as the fifth starter until Moore is healthy.

If Moore is able to rediscover his 2013 form, that will only help a Tampa rotation that could already be the best in the AL East.  Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi comprise the Rays’ top four, and given the limitations on offense, Tampa Bay will need this quartet to live up to their considerable potential to give them a fighting chance of getting back to the postseason.

A lot of things went wrong for the Rays in 2014, but despite their many changes, it wouldn’t be a total shock if they got back over the .500 mark.  There are just so many questions up and down the roster about young players and possibly-declining veterans, however, that it seems 2015 may be more about rebuilding than the beginning of a new stretch of winning Rays baseball.

Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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Cleveland entered the offseason with some buzz surrounding a pitching staff that looked dominant for much of the 2014 season and a glut of outfielders to which they added, rather than subtracted.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It was clearly a quiet offseason for the Indians, and perhaps that shouldn’t be considered a significant surprise. As I noted in previewing the club’s offseason, while there was a bit of financial wiggle room in the 2015 payroll — which has primarily been allocated to Brandon Moss and Gavin Floyd — the 2016 payroll is already tight due to a growing crop of arbitration-eligible players. That group includes names such as Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Cody Allen — so the spending won’t be insignificant.

The moves they did make didn’t address obvious areas of need. Adding Moss will give the lineup some extra punch, but he’s likely going to play in right field, where the Indians already have David Murphy, Ryan Raburn and Nick Swisher as options. All three of those players disappointed in 2014, so it’s not surprising to see the team seek an upgrade, but Moss is a relatively expensive alternative, and the club has yet to move any of the three pre-existing options (more on that in a bit).

Gavin Floyd

Floyd, too, represents a curious fit: Kluber was set to lead a staff that also featured Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and some combination of Danny Salazar, T.J. House, Josh Tomlin and Zach McAllister. A healthy Floyd, of course, would be a bargain at $4MM, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a broken olecranon bone in his elbow and barely pitched in the 2013 season due to Tommy John surgery. Indeed, questions about his health have already come up this spring. The additional depth is hardly a bad thing, but it’s at least somewhat puzzling that none of Cleveland’s limited resources went to finding a platoon partner for Lonnie Chisenhall or upgrading the bullpen.

Questions Remaining

The Indians will likely need to jettison one of their outfielders this spring, and Murphy has already voiced his opinion that he’d prefer a trade to seeing his role slashed to the point where he’d receive just a couple hundred at-bats. He’s still owed $6.5MM and hits left-handed, like Moss, eliminating the possibility of a platoon. Given the exorbitant price tag remaining on Swisher (two years, $30MM) and the fact that Raburn is right-handed (as well as cheaper and more versatile from a defensive standpoint), Murphy does seem the likeliest candidate to be playing elsewhere come Opening Day.

Shifting to the infield, Cleveland will again be giving Lonnie Chisenhall the chance to prove that he can be an everyday player in the big leagues. While Raburn and Mike Aviles present plausible platoon options, neither hit lefties well in 2014. Chisenhall did handle lefties pretty well in 2014, admittedly, though his .369 BABIP against southpaws isn’t likely to be repeated. He also comes with defensive question marks, as Defense Runs Saved pegged him at -14 runs in just 973 innings, while UZR/150 felt he’d cost a team 15 runs over the course of 150 games. Chisenhall notched just a .591 OPS in the second half, so Cleveland is counting on a bounceback of sorts.

While the rotation figures to be a strength, even if it’s not yet known which promising young arm will round out the starting five, the bullpen is decidedly shakier. Allen has emerged as a shutdown option in the ninth inning, and Bryan Shaw appears to be a perfectly serviceable setup man. Marc Rzepczynski is a weapon against lefties, and either Kyle Crockett or Nick Hagadone can join him as a second left-handed option for manager Terry Francona. However, whether or not Scott Atchison can repeat his strong season at age 39 is up for debate, and the occupants of the final two spots are to be determined. Perhaps some of the arms that miss out on the rotation spot could slot into the ’pen, but the Indians may not be too keen on moving a younger arm that they feel can be a starter into the bullpen for a season. In my eyes, a veteran complement was more needed here than in the rotation.

Additionally, Cleveland will need some bounceback efforts from several regulars around the diamond. Swisher slashed just .208/.278/.311 last season, but the veteran had offseason surgery on both knees and has since said that the pain he experienced in 2014 made it difficult to walk when he would awake in the night. Michael Bourn, the team’s other expensive free agent expenditure from the 2012-13 offseason, hit only .257/.314/.360 and played in just 106 games. And Jason Kipnis, the team’s best player in 2013, slumped to a meager .240/.310/.330 batting line with only six home runs in the first year of his new six-year extension.

Perhaps the greatest question mark, however, will be the team’s defense. Cleveland ranked last in the Majors in both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved in 2014, and they ranked 25th in defensive efficiency. Shedding Asdrubal Cabrera for a combination of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor will be a significant upgrade at shortstop, and if Bourn returns to form and plays a full, healthy season in center, the defensive value of the outfield should see a boost as well. Yan Gomes is among the game’s best and will reprise his role behind the plate.

Still, Chisenhall is not well-regarded at third base, and the team is likely to receive negative value in right field as well from a defensive standpoint. Michael Brantley, curiously in the eyes of some, grades out poorly in left. Carlos Santana will be better at first base than he was in an unsuccessful tryout at third base last year, but he’s still not exactly a gifted defender. Even the bench options — with the possible exception of Ramirez, should he become a reserve to make way for Lindor — appear to be fairly lackluster defenders. The pitching staff is talented enough to make up for some of those deficiencies, but converting balls in play into outs could be the Achilles heel of what looks to be a largely solid team.

Deal Of Note

Though there may not have been a significant need in the rotation, $4MM on Floyd (plus an additional $6MM worth of incentives) could work out to be a nice value play. Floyd worked to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings with the Braves last year before fracturing his elbow, and he was a key member of the White Sox’ rotation from 2008-12, pitching to a 4.12 ERA (108 ERA+ given his homer-friendly home park there and the increased offense the game several years ago) and averaging 190 innings per season.

Floyd is a nice insurance policy for a team with a young rotation, and he’s the type of arm they could conceivably flip in July, even if they’re still in contention. We saw in 2014 an increase in contending teams trading pieces from their Major League roster, and Floyd gives them enough rotation depth to move him if he’s healthy and effective, which remain significant uncertainties.

Overview

The Indians won 85 games in 2014 based largely on a pitching staff that will return in its entirety. Kluber showed that his brilliant second half in 2013 and ace-like peripherals were no fluke and is now rightly regarded among the game’s best arms. Some feel that Carrasco, who posted a 1.72 ERA in the second half and had a 2.58 SIERA on the season as a whole could do the same in 2015. If Kluber, Allen, Carrasco and Gomes can sustain the progress they showed in their excellent 2014 seasons, that alone could be enough to keep the Indians in contention, assuming no significant declines elsewhere around the diamond. Rebounds from Kipnis, Swisher and Bourn could make the Indians among the AL’s most formidable teams.

GM Chris Antonetti and his staff admittedly did little this offseason, but the rationale may simply have been that they didn’t feel drastic upgrades were needed throughout the roster. This won’t be a pretty team to watch in the field, but it’ll be a fun team to watch on the mound, and they should hit enough to keep pace with the rest of the competition in what figures to be a closely contested American League Central Division.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds’ offseason was highlighted by two solid trades of starting pitchers who were about to approach free agency, but the team still could face tough times ahead as its core continues to age.

Major League Signings

  • Burke Badenhop, RP: One year, $2.5MM ($1MM plus $1.5MM buyout on $2.5MM 2016 mutual option)
  • Total spend: $2.5MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Reds’ most pressing problem was the impending departure of much of their rotation next winter, and they addressed that issue by trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, both of whom could join Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake on the free agent market after the season. With over $82MM already on the books for 2016 (much of that coming from long-running contracts for Joey Votto and Homer Bailey), the Reds were in a tough spot from which the Latos and Simon deals helped remove them. They also saved about $14MM for 2015, given the two pitchers’ salaries in their last years of arbitration.

The Latos deal, in particular, will help, in that the Reds got a young starting pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani who has six full years of control left and should be able to help right away, perhaps developing into a middle-of-the-rotation type. Along with Bailey, Tony Cingrani and top prospect Robert Stephenson, DeSclafani will help the Reds adjust to life without Latos and Simon, and, perhaps eventually, without Cueto and Leake as well. The Reds also got Chad Wallach, a young catcher with a good eye at the plate who will likely start the season at High-A.

Jonathon Crawford, the pitcher the Reds received in the Simon trade, is further from the Majors, and is a bit of a project — his statistics in Class A last year were nothing to write home about, and most observers haven’t thought much of his changeup. His development will depend upon how well he’s able to use his other pitches to complement his plus fastball. The Reds also added Eugenio Suarez, a capable defensive shortstop who hit reasonably well in the minors and held his own in the big leagues as a 22-year-old last season. If Suarez can continue to improve, he’ll likely eventually replace Zack Cozart, whose subpar hitting mostly canceled out his plus defense last year.

Overall, that’s a good haul for Latos and Simon, particularly given that DeSclafani and Suarez might be able to help right away. Latos and Simon both had just one year of control left, and neither of them are aces — both of them had better ERAs than peripherals last year, and Simon, in particular, is a good bet to take a step backward next season. Latos also missed time in 2014 due to knee and elbow injuries. Whether the Reds will be able to keep Cueto and Leake beyond 2015 is an open question, but those two were probably the best pair of starters from among the four facing free agency, and the Reds got good value for the lesser pair.

The Reds also shipped outfielder Chris Heisey to the Dodgers for 25-year-old righty Matt Magill. Magill walked 6.3 batters per nine innings at Triple-A last season and doesn’t throw particularly hard, so he’s unlikely to contribute much. Heisey doesn’t hit well, although he’s a strong enough defender to be an asset, and his departure leaves the Reds’ rather thin outfield vulnerable if anyone is injured.

To bolster their bullpen, the Reds added righty Burke Badenhop on a one-year deal. Badenhop is a soft-tosser whose strikeout rate has shrunk over the past three seasons and whose xFIP was a run and a half behind his ERA last year, but at $2.5MM, the Reds didn’t overpay for a reliever who can limit walks and get bunches of ground balls.

The Reds also signed two core players, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, to extensions. The Frazier contract was fairly routine — it’s a two-year pact that buys out only Frazier’s first two years of arbitration eligibility, tracking fairly closely to what his salaries would have been through the arbitration process in those two seasons. After it ends, the Reds will be able to take Frazier through arbitration once more. Frazier’s deal came in lieu of an extension to buy out free-agent seasons, but since Frazier is already 29, such a deal might not have been necessary anyway.

USATSI_8109526_154513410_lowresThe Mesoraco deal is a more significant commitment. Like Frazier, Mesoraco was arbitration eligible for the first time. But Mesoraco’s contract buys out all three of his arbitration seasons, plus one year of free agency. Mesoraco and the Reds had already exchanged arbitration figures, and the midpoint of those two figures of $3.025MM would have given the two sides a rough guide to how much Mesoraco might have made through the arbitration process in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The deal comes with risk for the Reds — Mesoraco has only had one excellent season, and by extending him, the team is gambling that his 2014 breakout is real, or mostly real. Mesoraco is also an injury risk, having missed time with hamstring problems in 2014. The Reds also didn’t get any club options. If Mesoraco keeps hitting, though, the deal will be a bargain — if we assume, somewhat conservatively, that Mesoraco would have made about $15MM in his arbitration seasons, the deal buys out Mesoraco’s age-30 season at $13MM, a good price for what might be a strong late-prime season for a quality catcher. And if Mesoraco can approximate his .273/.359/.534 2014 outburst in 2015 and 2016, he would have been able to get far more than $15MM total in his three arbitration seasons.

Questions Remaining

As a team in transition, the Reds have no shortage of questions. Many of their highest paid players (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips among them) either had injury or performance issues or both in 2014. It will be difficult for the Reds to compete in 2015 if those players don’t stay healthy this time, since the team doesn’t have much depth, particularly now that Heisey is gone.

Key bench player Skip Schumaker is coming off a poor .235/.287/.308 season upon which he doesn’t figure to improve much. Backup catcher Brayan Pena was little better, at .253/.291/.353. The fact that Schumaker and Pena were already under contract for 2015 likely meant that the Reds weren’t going to spend much of the offseason hunting for position players who weren’t starters, but even a better crop of minor-league free agents would have helped. The team’s position player depth in the high minors is nothing to write home about, and its top hitting prospects are far from the Majors. Fangraphs’ depth chart currently lists nine Reds position players — their eight starters, plus Suarez — who project to be more than a tenth of a win above replacement in 2015. That’s a shame, because given the Reds’ veteran-heavy lineup, good backup plans could really have come in handy.

When Reds GM Walt Jocketty worked for the Cardinals, he frequently built benches full of light-hitting players like Aaron Miles, Roger Cedeno, Kerry Robinson and Miguel Cairo. But at least in St. Louis, Jocketty could lean hard on stars like Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds year-in and year-out. Jocketty did the same with the 2014 Reds, depending on players like Votto and Phillips, and it didn’t work. As of this writing, Votto, who missed 100 games last season with a knee injury, still hasn’t appeared in Spring Training action, although he’s expected to do so Saturday. If the Reds are to be successful in 2015, they need him.

The Latos and Simon deals will help the Reds beyond this season, and probably aren’t even as detrimental for 2015 as they might initially appear, but they do leave the team’s rotation thinner than it had been before. Tony Cingrani will occupy one of the last two spots, and he’s excellent as a back-end option, although the Reds will hope he’s past the shoulder troubles that ended his 2014 season. (He’s currently pitching normally in Spring Training.) DeSclafani is the front-runner for the fifth spot. The Reds also aren’t sure whether Bailey will be ready for the beginning of the season after having forearm surgery last September, which could mean Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis gets starts in his absence.

Deal of Note

The Reds spent much of their offseason dealing veterans and reshaping their roster beyond 2015, but they went the opposite direction when they traded pitcher Ben Lively to the Phillies for outfielder Marlon Byrd. With the departure of Ryan Ludwick (who did little in two years in Cincinnati to prove he’s a starting outfielder going forward anyway), the Reds had a gaping hole in left field, and Byrd might be able to fill it capably, even at age 37. After a career year in 2013, his rate stats went backward in 2014, but he still hit 25 homers, a total he could match this season in a homer-happy ballpark like Cincinnati’s. If he stays healthy, the Reds will likely be happy to be on the hook for his $8MM 2016 team option, which will vest if he manages 550 plate appearances this season.

The quality of the trade, though, depends on Lively. The Reds know him better than anyone, and perhaps thought that his blend of reasonable stuff and deception wouldn’t be enough to succeed in the long term. Lively had an excellent first full pro season, though, and could be ready for the Majors by the end of this season or early next. He would have been a good arm for the Reds to have in their system as they prepare for life without many of their top starting pitchers. Perhaps the value of having a competitive 2015 team was worth the cost of losing Lively, but acquiring a relatively cheap free-agent outfielder, like Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki or Michael Morse, might have made more sense.

Overview

Step back a bit, and the Reds still look like they could be very good. Cincinnati has a power-hitting catcher, a first baseman with a career .417 OBP, a star veteran second baseman, a third baseman who’s coming off a career year, and a center fielder (Billy Hamilton) who gives opposing catchers nightmares. They have one of the National League’s best starting pitchers in Cueto, and a terrifying closer (Aroldis Chapman) who joins Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland among the best relievers of this decade so far. If everyone is healthy and performs at his career norms, that’s an excellent core.

A closer inspection, though, isn’t as kind. The Reds’ core is old enough and expensive enough that the team can’t necessarily fit many good complementary players into its budget. (That might not improve much in the coming years, either, with the $213MM remaining on Votto’s contract potentially causing the Reds huge headaches.) With a few obvious exceptions like Hamilton and Cingrani, the Reds’ farm system hasn’t developed the young players necessary to replace core pieces as they age. The team can’t necessarily count on Votto being healthy, and Phillips isn’t nearly as good as he once was. And Cueto is only under team control for one more year.

Perhaps a more aggressive route for the Reds this offseason would have been to trade Cueto and rebuild — one would think Cueto would have been able to land the Reds at least a couple top prospects, given his 2014 performance and ultra-cheap 2015 option ($10MM). The Phillies are having trouble getting the package they want for Cole Hamels, however, and James Shields lasted late into the winter on the free agent market. The Athletics’ return for Jeff Samardzija appears to have been relatively meager. Perhaps the Reds are gambling that they can get better value for Cueto at the deadline, or perhaps they’ll end up extending him (although it’s debatable whether a team in the Reds’ position should commit to what would presumably be a nine-figure contract that goes well into Cueto’s thirties).

In any case, the Reds appear to be in a holding pattern. This offseason’s Latos and Simon trades were steps toward a brighter future, but they were small ones, and the Byrd deal went in the opposite direction. There’s no rule stating that a team can only contend or only rebuild, and in fact many teams this offseason have pursued both goals at once. The Reds, though, don’t really seem to be doing either one. It wouldn’t be a miracle if they made the playoffs this year, but it would be a surprise, and as their core ages and departs, it’s unclear what’s on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Front office controversy generated more headlines in Baltimore than any of the Orioles’ winter moves, as the team had one of the quieter offseasons of any contending team.  The O’s will rely on some lower-profile transactions and a return to form from injured stars as they look to defend their AL East crown.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Several of the Orioles’ most notable offseason moves were completed before October was even finished.  Exercising 2015 options for Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day were virtual no-brainers given how well both men pitched last year, and the O’s kept J.J. Hardy off the free agent market by signing him to a three-year extension before their postseason run was even over.

The outfield and DH spots became major needs for the O’s once Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis signed elsewhere.  The team explored signing or trading for several candidates to fill those spots, ranging from big-name everyday options as Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Marlon Byrd, Michael Morse and Colby Rasmus, to players better suited for a platoon role, i.e. Jonny Gomes or Chris Denorfia.MLB: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

In the end, the Orioles brought back a familiar face in Delmon Young and acquired an intriguing piece in ex-Pirates outfielder Travis Snider.  Young hit well (.302/.337/.442 over 255 plate appearances) in a part-time role for the O’s last season and he can play either corner outfield spot, though defensive metrics suggest he’s a better fit for a DH spot.  Snider was rated as one of baseball’s top-10 prospects in his days as a Blue Jays minor leaguer, though he never gained a solid foothold in the majors until he posted a .776 OPS over 359 PA for the Pirates last season.  Snider is still just 27 and comes with two years of team control, so a breakout isn’t out of the question, and at worst the O’s should have a solid lefty bat.

Overall, manager Buck Showalter has lots of opportunity to mix and match his lineup when it comes to his corner outfield and DH positions.  He has Snider, David Lough and Alejandro De Aza as left-handed bats and Young and Steve Pearce hitting from the right side.  Pearce is the best bet for regular playing time given his huge 2014 numbers, though the O’s have given themselves some depth should Pearce come back down to earth.

Though Wesley Wright is much more of a lefty specialist than a dominant bullpen southpaw like Andrew Miller, Wright’s signing will help fill the left-handed hole left by Miller in the Orioles’ bullpen.  There was speculation that Wright’s signing could have also been made to account for a possible trade of Brian Matusz, though since no move materialized, Baltimore will go into the year with significant left-handed relief depth in Wright, Matusz, T.J. McFarland and closer Zach Britton.  Before landing Wright, the O’s also looked into acquiring Antonio Bastardo from the Phillies before he was traded to the Pirates.

While Matt Wieters is expected to be recovered from the Tommy John surgery that cost him all but 26 games of the 2014 season, Baltimore added to its catching depth beyond Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph by signing J.P. Arencibia and Ryan Lavarnway to minor league deals.  (Michael Ohlman was also in the mix before being dealt to the Cardinals.)  Wieters is an important name to watch; not only will his health be a key factor in the Orioles’ success, but he’s also entering the final year of his contract.  A big year will make Wieters one of the top names in the 2015-16 free agent class, so his future in Baltimore will be one of the team’s major ongoing storylines.

MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected that the Orioles would spend $56.9MM to cover the contracts for their whopping 11-player arbitration class.  The total ended up being $57.515MM, which included winning a hearing against Alejandro De Aza.

Questions Remaining

The general feeling going into the offseason was that of the Orioles’ three biggest free agents, Miller was sure to leave, Cruz was 50-50 and Markakis was leaning towards re-signing.  As it turned out, all three players departed, leaving the O’s with a particular need for lineup reinforcements.

As ESPN’s Jayson Stark recently pointed out, those reinforcements could already be on the roster if Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis are all healthy and productive.  Relying on those three, however, is no sure thing.  Wieters was already in need of a rebound after a sub-par 2013 season, Machado has now undergone two knee surgeries in as many years and it’s hard to know what to expect from Davis, who went from a 53-homer year in 2013 to being barely above replacement level (0.5 fWAR) in a 2014 season plagued by injuries and a suspension for using Adderall.

It remains to be seen if the platooning rotation at LF/RF/DH can work, as a lot rides on whether Pearce, Young and Snider can continue to hit as well as they did in 2014 rather than struggle as they have in previous seasons.  An everyday option like Upton or Byrd would’ve provided more stability, though the Orioles were leery of parting with any significant minor leaguers.  In my opinion, this is where you can second-guess Baltimore’s decision to deal Eduardo Rodriguez for Miller at the trade deadline.  While Miller undoubtedly helped the O’s win the East, a top-60 prospect was a stiff price to pay for two-plus months of a relief pitcher, and Rodriguez could’ve perhaps been better served as trade bait for a bigger roster piece this offseason.

It seemed as if the Orioles were constantly on the verge of a major move this winter, as in addition to being linked to those notable outfielders and Bastardo, there were also rumors of a Chen-for-Howie Kendrick trade with the Angels.  Chen and Bud Norris drew some trade interest, though the Orioles decided to hang onto their starting pitching depth; a wise move in my view given how Ubaldo Jimenez struggled last year.

The biggest development of the Orioles’ offseason (and one that could have ramifications for seasons to come) was the Blue Jays’ pursuit of Dan Duquette to be their new team president and CEO.  After roughly six weeks of speculation and negotiations between the two clubs, talks finally ended with the Jays walking away due to Baltimore’s demand for multiple top prospects as compensation for Duquette’s services.

The relationship between Duquette and the Orioles was thought to be as solid as could be, given the team’s two postseason appearances in Duquette’s three seasons as the executive VP of baseball operations and the fact that Duquette had signed an extension that keeps him with the O’s through the 2018 campaign.  After this winter, however, questions have to be asked about Duquette’s long-term future in Baltimore, especially given how owner Peter Angelos was reportedly very upset about the situation.  For now, it’s a situation to keep an eye on.

Deal Of Note

Since being named to the 2013 All-Star team, Everth Cabrera’s career has taken a turn for the worse both on and off the field.  Cabrera served a 50-game suspension for PED use, posted only a .572 OPS over 391 PA last season and is facing charges for resisting arrest stemming from a suspected DUI last September.

Given all of these recent troubles, it’s no surprise that the Padres non-tendered Cabrera last December.  That said, if Cabrera can put his troubles behind him, then he could be yet another unheralded Duquette signing that pays big dividends for the Orioles.  Cabrera is controllable through the 2016 season and he still has a minor league option remaining, making his one-year, $2.4MM contract even less of a risk for the team.  He’s seen time all around the diamond during Spring Training camp, so the O’s could employ him as a switch-hitting supersub, or they could focus on him as a backup or even a platoon mate for Jonathan Schoop at second base.

Overview

While some fans and pundits think the Orioles’ quiet offseason will lead to a step back in the AL East, it’s worth noting that Duquette’s three previous offseasons running the Orioles were also not particularly newsworthy on paper.  It was only in hindsight that some of those under-the-radar moves stood out, ranging from claiming O’Day off waivers or getting good contributions from Jason Hammel or Nate McLouth, to the admittedly more notable steal of Cruz’s 40-homer season on only a one-year, $8MM contract.

In those past offseasons, however, Duquette’s strategy was to tinker around an already-solid core of players.  This is the first time Orioles have had to deal with some major losses to that core, as Cruz immediately became a key part of the lineup and Markakis had been a staple for years.  That said, the club still has Adam Jones, Hardy, the returning trio of injured stars, an underrated bullpen led by Britton and a solid starting rotation that could get a boost if Kevin Gausman takes a step forward or if Jimenez gets back on track.

While winning the division by 12 games again may be a stretch, it isn’t hard to see the Orioles in playoff contention again.  The pressure is on, however — with a whopping 12 players set to hit free agency next winter, this may be this roster’s last chance at a pennant before some inevitable reshuffling for 2016.

Photo courtesy of Joy R. Absalon/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates spent much of the winter trying to insulate themselves against the potential departures of players who had been keys to their successful 2013 and 2014 seasons. In the end, they spent surprisingly heavily, given their usual thriftiness, signing two familiar starting pitchers and adding a high-profile but largely untested Korean infielder.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Pirates lost catcher Russell Martin, a key to their franchise-changing 2013 and 2014 campaigns and a bargain to the franchise when he signed following the 2012 season for two years and $17MM. Martin headed to Toronto at a dramatic markup, with the Pirates receiving only a draft pick in return. In Martin’s place, the Bucs acquired former Yankees backstop Francisco Cervelli, who has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t likely to hit nearly as well as Martin did, since Cervelli’s strong offensive performance in a small sample last year was largely BABIP-fueled. Via StatCorner, however, Cervelli and backup Chris Stewart have both ranked as above-average pitch framers in each of the last four seasons, potentially giving the Pirates an edge that won’t be reflected in their catchers’ offensive numbers. Cervelli and Stewart aren’t likely to replace Martin’s .290/.402/.430 2014 season at the plate, but they could approximate Martin’s value behind it at a fraction of the cost.

The Bucs also faced uncertainties in their rotation, given that Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez were eligible for free agency. The Bucs re-signed Liriano for $39MM, more than doubling Martin’s record for the organization’s largest ever free agent contract. To some extent, the Pirates paid heavily for their own handiwork, as their combination of framing, defensive shifts and strong coaching had helped Liriano rebuild his value after he posted consecutive seasons with five-plus ERAs in 2011 and 2012. But the Bucs needed pitching, and there were few better bets on the market, with Brandon McCarthy the only pitcher in the Pirates’ presumed price range who might have been as good a fit for their ground-ball-heavy approach. Liriano’s price was reasonable, too, given that McCarthy and Ervin Santana, pitchers in a similar tier, each got four years and more money (although it should be noted that McCarthy, unlike Liriano and Santana, did not require the loss of a draft pick).

The Pirates’ replacement for Volquez (another pitcher whose value skyrocketed thanks in part to the Bucs’ planning and coaching) fell into their laps in November, when A.J. Burnett told his agent he was only interested in playing in Pittsburgh. Burnett had rejected a $12.75MM player option to remain in Philadelphia, and he took a significant discount to return to the Pirates. Burnett’s peripherals declined with the Phillies, and at 38, he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat his excellent performances with Pittsburgh 2012 and 2013. Like Liriano and Volquez, though, he’s a good fit for the Pirates given his ground ball tendencies and the Bucs’ defense and ballpark, so some rebound from his disappointing, hernia-plagued 2014 season is likely.

The Pirates also allowed Clint Barmes, a light-hitting shortstop whose good glove was often a crucial part of the Bucs’ swarming infield defense, to leave for the Padres via free agency. With Jordy Mercer remaining as the Pirates’ starter, the Bucs first aimed to replace Barmes’ glove by collecting low-cost infielders, including Sean Rodriguez, Justin Sellers, Pedro Florimon and Jake Elmore (who is already out of the organization). Rodriguez, who can also play the outfield, still looks like a fit for the Pirates’ bench, but the Bucs’ plans for the others likely changed in December, when they unexpectedly won the bidding for Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang. The Bucs then signed Kang to a four-year deal with an option for 2019.

It’s hard to tell what to expect of Kang, the first position player from the KBO to arrive in US baseball via the posting system. The 27-year-old posted a ridiculous .356/.459/.739 line with Nexen in 2014, although the KBO is an extremely hitter-friendly league with a competition level significantly lower than that of the Majors, and there are questions about Kang’s ability to handle shortstop in the big leagues. He’ll likely start the season as a bench option for the Pirates. If he proves he can handle big-league pitching, however, he might not stay there. Mercer has never been a star, first baseman Pedro Alvarez is strikeout-prone and erratic, second baseman Neil Walker has struggled to stay healthy, and third baseman Josh Harrison is versatile and can be moved back into his previous super-utility role, so there could be opportunities for Kang to start at some point in the future.

Kang wasn’t the only player from the KBO the Pirates added, also signing Dominican pitcher Radhames Liz, who pitched for the LG Twins from 2011-2013, to a cheap one-year deal. Liz started in Korea, but the Pirates have already suggested they’re likely to use him in relief — not a surprise, given the 31-year-old’s live arm and history of control issues.

To make up for the departure of lefty Justin Wilson in the Cervelli deal, the Bucs traded lefty prospect Joely Rodriguez to the Phillies for Antonio Bastardo, who they’d also reportedly pursued at the 2014 trade deadline. As a fly ball pitcher, Bastardo doesn’t match the Pirates’ usual pitcher type, but he whiffed 11.4 batters per nine innings last season and should give the Bucs an effective second lefty to pair with Tony Watson.

Finally, the Pirates signed Corey Hart to a cheap deal to provide a right-handed bat at first base and in the outfield. Hart effectively replaces Gaby Sanchez, who struggled while serving as the right-handed side of an underwhelming platoon with Ike Davis in 2014. Hart himself missed the entire 2013 season due to injury and had a terrible 2014 in Seattle, but he was well above average in three straight seasons before that, so he might have some upside that Sanchez doesn’t. At $2.5MM (plus some incentives for plate appearance thresholds he isn’t likely to reach), Hart poses little risk.

Questions Remaining

The Bucs have few obvious holes, but it’s unclear whether they have the talent necessary to topple the Cardinals and hold off the Cubs in the NL Central. (And while the Brewers and Reds aren’t as likely to contend, they won’t be complete pushovers either.) With the departure of Travis Snider in a deal with the Orioles, the Bucs will lean heavily on Gregory Polanco in right field. Polanco, who has stratospheric upside, should certainly start, but he struggled in his rookie season in 2014. He has more than enough talent to make the necessary adjustments, but if he doesn’t, the Pirates’ outfield picture could get interesting, particularly if Kang proves he’s good enough to start somewhere in the infield — in that case, Kang could take over at third with Harrison moving to right.

The Pirates’ new first base platoon of Alvarez and Hart might or might not pan out. Alvarez, who had to be moved off third after a series of throwing misadventures last season, has barely played his new position. And then there’s his offense — he’s only two years removed from a 36-homer 2013 campaign, but he has strikeout issues that dramatically limit his ability to hit for average. He improved his plate discipline in 2014, but his new approach perhaps cost him power, as he went from one home run every 17 plate appearances to one every 25. He’s set to make $5.75MM in his penultimate season before free agency eligibility, and this year could be his last in a Pirates uniform, since the arbitration process threatens to pay him more than he’s worth.

The Pirates will also have to determine who belongs in their rotation. Liriano, Burnett and Gerrit Cole are easy choices, along with Charlie Morton, as long as Morton remains on track after having hip surgery late last season. After that, there’s Vance Worley and Jeff Locke, both of whom are out of options. Worley was the better of the two last season, posting a 2.85 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, so he could take over the fifth spot. Locke is too valuable to designate for assignment and probably isn’t ideally suited to relief work, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Pirates trade him near the end of Spring Training if all their big-league starters are healthy. If they did, it would make sense to get a starting pitcher who has options. The Bucs’ rotation depth took a hit in early March when it was revealed that Brandon Cumpton, a starter on the 40-man roster who figured to begin the year at Triple-A Indianapolis, needed to visit Dr. James Andrews.

The Pirates’ biggest problem, though, is that they’ll have to make up for some individual performances they probably won’t get again. Cervelli is capable, but he’s not Martin. Harrison produced an out-of-nowhere 4.9-WAR season that he’s unlikely to repeat, given his previous performance record, although his breakout was fueled in part by an increase in his line-drive rate that’s probably sustainable to some degree. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Neil Walker had terrific seasons as well. Breakouts from Polanco or Cole would help offset likely declines at other positions. If flame-throwing rookie reliever John Holdzkom can pitch as well over a full season as he did for the Pirates in September, that would help, too.

Deal of Note

USATSI_7997081_154513410_lowresThe Pirates spent most of the offseason accumulating veteran talent where they could, but they went in the opposite direction when they traded Travis Snider to the Orioles for pitching prospects Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault. They had traded two young pitching prospects, Joely Rodriguez and Buddy Borden, in previous offseason deals, so their return in the Snider deal allowed them to replenish their farm system. But it still seemed like an odd trade — even with the left-handed Polanco projected to take over for the Snider in right field, Snider had a clear role on the team as the Bucs’ only projected lefty bench option. Snider hit a solid .268/.338/.438 and produced 1.7 fWAR in just 359 plate appearances last season, so his loss is a significant one, at least on the surface.

Many projection systems think Snider and minor-leaguer Andrew Lambo will produce at about the same rate next year, though, and Snider had never previously had a big-league season like the one he had in 2014. So perhaps the Pirates thought they sold high on Snider while clearing a space for Lambo, who clobbered Triple-A pitching for the second consecutive season last year. And while trading Snider for prospects seems like the behavior of a rebuilding team, not a contending one, GMs increasingly seem to be pursuing multiple goals at once — not just trying to win now or just trying to win later, but trying to do both at the same time.

Overview

Pirates GM Neal Huntington, his front office, and the Bucs’ coaching staff have now produced two straight teams that were better than they appeared to be on paper. The Pirates target pitchers who induce buckets of ground balls, then get the most out of what seem to be average infield defenses with expert positioning. Add in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and the NL’s lack of the DH, and many Pirates pitchers during the last two years — Burnett, Liriano, Volquez, Charlie Morton, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes — were probably as likely to succeed with the Pirates as with any other team in baseball. The way the Bucs help pitchers, chronicled in detail in Travis Sawchik’s forthcoming book Big Data Baseball, is specific and sophisticated enough that certain types of pitchers — ground-ballers who can pitch into the Bucs’ shifts — give the Pirates a significant edge on their competition. The number of pitchers it even makes sense for them to pursue in any given offseason is thus fairly small.

Because of their pitcher support system, the Pirates have a good chance at continued success in the future despite payrolls that most of their fans still find frustratingly low. They have a collection of relatively cheap pitching that they are ideally suited to nurture. They have a franchise player, Andrew McCutchen, who’s under control for four more years thanks to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game, and an emerging star in Starling Marte who’s signed to a team-friendly deal of his own. The Bucs also have one of baseball’s better farm systems, with Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon set to join their rotation by 2016 and Josh Bell perhaps set to take over for Alvarez and Hart at first base around then. By 2018, after which McCutchen is eligible to depart via free agency, maybe those players will be part of a Pirates core headed by Marte, Polanco and Cole.

2014-2015 was about as flashy as Pirates offseasons get, and yet, by the standards of most other teams, they did very little. In fact, with Martin gone, they probably even downgraded. But the Pirates’ plans don’t center on flashy offseason moves. Or, as Huntington puts it, “We’ll never win the offseason.” They probably won’t head into any season in the near future as a favorite to win the World Series, or perhaps even as a runaway favorite to win their division. But they do look like they could continue to contend for the next several seasons, 2015 included.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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