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Archives for October 2013

Rockies Decline Rafael Betancourt’s Option

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The Rockies announced on Twitter that they have declined their half of the $4.25MM mutual option on closer Rafael Betancourt's contract. The news comes as no surprise, as the 38-year-old recenly underwent potentially career-threatening Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Betancourt pitched to a 4.08 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 28 2/3 innings this season, although that ERA was a noticeably stronger 2.93 prior to his final two outings in 2013. Betancourt missed time with a groin strain and an appendectomy this season, and injured his elbow immediately upon his return from the second DL stint. Betancourt allowed four earned runs over his next two appearances (totaling one inning) before the ligament tear was discovered.

As of late August, the 11-year Major League veteran was hoping to rehab from Tommy John surgery and attempt a comeback, although doing so will mean attempting to resurface in the Majors in 2015 at age 40.

AL West Notes: Astros, Colon, Farquhar

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United States Bankruptcy Judge Marvin Isgur is considering an order to allow the Astros (and the Houston Rockets) to negotiate with other parties to see if another business model with a new partner could make a Houston sports network profitable, according to David Barron of the Houston Chronicle. Those partners include FOX Sports, and Astros owner Jim Crane disclosed in the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings for CSN Houston that he spoke with FOX executives earlier in the year about returning to FOX Sports Southwest. Crane has previously expressed concern about CSN Houston's impact on his team's ability to compete within the division. Here's more out of the AL West…

  • There's mutual interest between the Athletics and Bartolo Colon, agent Adam Katz told Joe Stiglich of CSN California. Colon "loved his time" with the A's and would be open should they wish to make an offer, Stiglich elaborates (Twitter links). Colon recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he thinks he can pitch three more seasons.
  • Speaking of Slusser, her latest column has a host of info on the decisions facing the A's early in the offseason. A qualifying offer seems too steep a price for Oakland to offer Colon, though she feels that he's likely to seek a deal similar to the one-year, $15MM contract Hiroki Kuroda signed this past offseason. Echoing earlier reports, Slusser feels that Grant Balfour is likely to leave as a free agent.
  • MLB.com's Greg Johns looks at the unlikely path that right-hander Danny Farquhar took to become the Mariners closer. The 26-year-old went from the Blue Jays to the A's to the Yankees to the Mariners in a span of 12 months and entered 2013 as an afterthought before finishing the regular season with one of the most dominant stretches of any AL reliever this year.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Dodgers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kershaw easily has the largest projected salary of the 200+ arbitration eligible players.  Furthermore, his projection tops the largest arbitration reward in MLB history, Prince Fielder's $15.5MM in 2011.  Cole Hamels set the record for a pitcher with $15MM in 2012.  We had to invoke the Kimbrel Rule in limiting Kershaw's raise to $6.9MM.  

There seems to be a general feeling that Kershaw has little chance of reaching the open market, because the Dodgers have the money and intent to sign their ace long-term within the next 12 months (and preferably before the 2014 season begins).  The largest contract ever given to a pitcher remains the seven-year, $161MM deal C.C. Sabathia signed with the Yankees nearly five years ago.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported progress in June between the Dodgers and Kershaw on a seven-year deal worth more than $180MM, with other proposals under discussion such as $250MM over 10 years and $300MM over 12 years.  In August, Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers and Kershaw were close to a seven-year, $210MM deal that would have included a player opt-out clause after five years, from which the Dodgers backed off.  This month, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about a $300MM lifetime contract the Dodgers had offered earlier in the season, perhaps the same one to which Rosenthal referred in June.  Players must file for arbitration on January 14th next year, with figures to be exchanged on the 17th, but I imagine the Dodgers and Kershaw will be willing to talk about a long-term deal up until Opening Day.

Closer Kenley Jansen posted another fine season, though perhaps his first 30-save campaign will come in 2014 assuming he owns the job from the start of the season.  There is no extension model for three-plus closers, so the Dodgers and Jansen would have to forge new territory to get a deal done.

Ellis' production declined from 2012, to .238/.318/.364 in 448 plate appearances.  The team could consider trading Ellis to open up a pursuit of Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Butera, a backup type acquired for depth at the trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered.

The Dodgers picked up Baxter from the Mets on a waiver claim this month, suggesting they'll consider tendering him a contract.  He'll make something around the league minimum, so it's really about how they want to use the roster spot.  Elbert, a 28-year-old lefty reliever, had Tommy John surgery in June and is a non-tender candidate.  Belisario was not particularly good this year, with ERAs around 8.00 in June and September.  He did have a 3.97 ERA overall and the Dodgers liked him enough to use him in the playoffs, so he's probably safe.

Assuming the Dodgers tender contracts to Kershaw, Jansen, Ellis, Belisario, and Baxter, they're looking at an estimated $29MM for five arbitration eligible players.

AL Central Notes: Cabrera, Konerko, Abreu, Twins

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The Tigers announced today that Miguel Cabrera underwent successful core muscle repair surgery (a.k.a. sports hernia surgery) this morning. The operation was performed by Dr. Bill Meyers in Phialdelphia, and Cabrera's timetable for recovery is expected to be six to eight weeks. The Tigers anticipate that their perennial MVP candidate will be healthy in time for Spring Training. Here's more out of the AL Central…

  • At today's press conference to announce the signing of Jose Dariel Abreu, White Sox general manager flatly said that the Abreu signing does not preclude the team from bringing back Paul Konerko in 2014. Hahn added that he spoke with Konerko about the potential of signing Abreu back in September, and Konerko was his first call after they had officially reached an agreement with Abreu.
  • Also from the conference, Abreu himself stated (through his translator) that the history of Cuban players finding success in the White Sox organization was an important element for him in choosing to sign with the Sox.
  • Abreu's agent, Barry Praver, tells Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago that eight teams made offers to his client, and five of the offers hit $60MM (Twitter link). It's already been reported that the Rockies were surprise contenders, offering $63MM over six years.
  • Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at the Twins recent hiring of Larry Corrigan, noting that he is the latest of GM Terry Ryan's former associates to be brought back into the fold. Corrigan had served as a Major League special assignment scout for the Angels but declined a one-year extension, according to Berardino. Ryan has also brought former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky back to the Minnesota front office as a special assistant. The three men were at the helm for the Twins from 1995-2005 and played a large role in building the successful core that brought the Twins to prominence in the 2000s. Corrigan has spent more than two decades with the Twins in the past, signing both Torii Hunter and LaTroy Hawkins.

White Sox Sign Jose Dariel Abreu

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The White Sox have officially announced the signing of Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu to a six-year, $68MM contract. According to the team's official release, the first baseman will receive a $10MM signing bonus before earning $7MM in 2014-15, $10MM in 2016, $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019. Abreu, who isrepresented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management, can opt out of the guaranteed salaries in lieu of arbitration after three years if he wishes, according to Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (on Twitter).

Within the release, White Sox GM Rick Hahn offered the following quote:

"We are very excited to add a talent like Jose to our roster for the next several years. His skill set should translate very well to our ballpark, and we expect him to be a part of successful White Sox teams throughout his time in Chicago."

The Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Marlins and Giants all reportedly showed interest in Abreu. The White Sox, however, were able to lure him with a contract that's the biggest ever for an international free agent. The contract easily tops the seven-year, $42MM contract Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last year.

Abreu, 26, posted video-game-like numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional, and his power is very highly regarded. Athletics assistant GM David Forst, for example, favorably compared Abreu to Ryan Howard. Some experts have had concerns about Abreu's bat speed, however, and many have been critical of his athleticism and defense. Tim Dierkes' free agent profile predicted Abreu would get six years and $54MM.

In the short term, the signing should help the White Sox generate fan excitement after a miserable 99-loss season in 2013. Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn shared the first base position for the White Sox last season, and both struggled. Konerko is now a free agent, and it's unclear whether he will return next year. If he does, he could get at bats at designated hitter. The White Sox still owe Dunn $15MM for 2014.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports originally reported (via Twitter) that Abreu would sign for six years and $68MM, and that the White Sox were the likely team. MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez was the first to confirm the official agreement and that the White Sox were indeed the signing team (also on Twitter).

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Angels Willing To Trade Bourjos, Trumbo For Pitching

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The Angels' desire for young, controllable pitching is no secret, and ESPN's Buster Olney reports that they've indicated to other teams a willingness to trade center fielder Peter Bourjos or first baseman Mark Trumbo to acquire such talent (Twitter link).

Bourjos and Trumbo both have three years of team control remaining, and each is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Bourjos, who turns 27 in March, will earn $1.1MM in 2014. Trumbo, set to turn 28 in January, is projected by Swartz to see his salary jump to $4.7MM.

The salary gap between the two is sizable due to the fact that arbitration rewards Trumbo's power-oriented game while overlooking Bourjos' speed- and defense-oriented game. In terms of WAR, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference feel that Bourjos has actually been more valuable through 354 big league games than Trumbo has through 450. Bourjos has been worth 9.0 fWAR and 8.4 rWAR to Trumbo's 6.6 fWAR and 7.6 rWAR.

Trumbo has shown more durability than Bourjos, appearing in at least 144 games in each of the past three seasons and slashing .251/.300/.473 with 95 home runs in that time. On-base percentage is unlikely to ever be one of his strong points, but his right-handed power is among the game's best, and he's been a solid defender at first base by both UZR and DRS.

Pointing out Bourjos' lack of games played isn't entirely fair, given that the majority of the time he's spent on the disabled list has come as a result of being hit by a pitch on the wrist two different times. He does have a pair of hamstring-related DL stints as well, though the hamstring issues have amounted to less time on the shelf than his wrist woes. Over the past three seasons, Bourjos is hitting .262/.321/.401 (104 OPS+). Since his promotion to the Majors, he's tied with Michael Bourn for second among center fielders in defensive value added, according to Fangraphs, trailing only Carlos Gomez for the league lead.

The free agent market offers little in the way of reliable, right-handed power at first base, with Mike Napoli representing the best option. Corey Hart belongs in that conversation too, but he was unable to take the field in 2013 after surgery on both knees. Likewise, the center field market is bleak beyond one high-priced star and another coming off an inury-riddled season. Jacoby Ellsbury may sign the second-biggest contract of the offseason, and Curtis Granderson was hit by a pair of pitches that resulted in a pair of broken bones and nearly 100 games on the DL. With little help on the free agent market, three years of Bourjos or Trumbo will be highly desirable alternatives that should net at least one solid young arm, should the Angels pull the trigger on a deal.

The Angels are also said to be willing to trade Howie Kendrick this offseason, and Erick Aybar was discussed at this year's trade deadline, so he could be on the block as well. Also on the trade front, the Blue Jays are interested in Hank Conger or Chris Iannetta. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto figures to be in for a busy offseason and will have plenty of avenues to explore in order to add the young pitching he's looking to acquire.

Ryan Madson Changes Agents

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Embattled right-hander Ryan Madson has left the Boras Corporation in favor of Damon Lapa and Scott Leventhal's All Bases Covered Sports Management, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter).

It's been two years since Madson, who turned 33 in August, has thrown a Major League pitch. After nearly agreeing to a four-year deal to remain with the Phillies following the 2011 season, he found himself on the outside looking in as GM Ruben Amaro Jr. instead brought Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia. Madson would ultimately sign with the Reds on a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee, but Tommy John surgery that Spring caused him to miss the entire 2012 season.

Of the reported near-agreement, Boras told Crasnick in Jan. 2012 that they never rejected a four-year offer from Philadelphia, but rather told Amaro that they would agree to such a deal, and Amaro elected to go in a different direction. Likewise, Amaro said no agreement was ever reached.

Madson signed with the Angels for one year and $3.5MM this past offseason but persistent setbacks in his rehab prevented him from ever taking the field. He was released in early August and is currently a free agent.

Madson was a strong setup man for the Phillies from 2007-10, posting a 3.01 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 before taking over as the team's closer in place of Brad Lidge in 2011. In his lone full season as the team's stopper, Madson piled up 32 saves with a 2.37 ERA and a stellar 62-to-16 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings. Even more impressive is that eight of those free passes were intentional, demonstrating how well he had honed his command over the years in Philadelphia.

Lapa and Leventhal represent a number of Major Leaguers, including Kevin Correia, David Robertson, Eric Chavez, Nate Schierholtz and Brian Dozier. Madson is the second notable free agent to switch representation in the past 24 hours, as outfielder Chris Young made the switch from CAA to Reynolds Sports Management last night.

For more info on nearly 2,000 Major League, Minor League and international players, check out MLBTR's Agency Database. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know by emailing mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Twins Outright Pedro Hernandez

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Here are today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • Twins left-hander Pedro Hernandez has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Rochester, according to the team's transactions page. Hernandez, 24, was one of two players acquired from the White Sox in exchange for Francisco Liriano in a July 2012 trade that was mostly a salary dump. Hernandez pitched 56 2/3 innings for Minnesota this year, posting an unsightly 6.83 ERA with 4.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate. His 4.50 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 45 Triple-A innings look better than his big league numbers.

AL Notes: Wotus, Corrigan, Orioles, Youkilis

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What are the biggest holes to be filled by potential 2014 contenders? Writing for ESPN, Paul Swydan lists catcher for the Tigers, right field for the Orioles, and DH for the Yankees. Having already covered some of this evening's news from the AL Central side, here are more notes from the American League:

  • The Mariners have interviewed Giants bench coach Ron Wotus for the team's manager role, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman notes that Wotus joins a lengthy group of candidates vying to become the new Seattle skipper. 
  • The Angels lost major league special assignment scout Larry Corrigan, who will return to the Twins in some capacity, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports via Twitter. Corrigan has previously been described as one of GM Jerry Dipoto's most trusted scouts.
  • While the Orioles have a lengthy list of free agents, the club is taking its time addressing their situations, reports Dan Connolly of the Balitimore Sun. With well-known names like Scott Feldman, Nate McLouth, Michael Morse, Brian Roberts, and Francisco Rodriguez all coming off the books, the Baltimore front office has to decide who to pursue. "We haven't moved on any of those free agents yet," said executive VP Dan Duquette.
  • Yankees third baseman Kevin Youkilis is healthy and ready to test the free agent market once more, agent Joe Bick tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The 35-year-old was a bust for the Yanks, who got 28 games off subpar production from him at a cost of $12MM. 

AL Central Notes: Konerko, Abreu, Jimenez, Ausmus

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The Fielding Bible released its list of the best defensive players in all baseball, and one of only two back-to-back names is Alex Gordon of the Royals. (Of course, the other – Yadier Molina – has accumulated six total nods.) Elsewhere in the AL Central …

  • First baseman Paul Konerko is apparently unsure of how to interpret the White Sox' signing of Jose Dariel Abreu, He said he doesn't "know what the story is behind that" – referring to Abreu's long-term deal — as reported by Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). A meeting between player and team has yet to be put on the schedule, according to Kane.
  • Meanwhile, Abreu's deal has seen mixed reactions. Count Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs in favor of the deal: he predicts that Abreu will be one of the game's 25 best hitters, making him well worth his contract.
  • The Indians will "almost certainly" make a qualifying offer to starter Ubaldo Jimenez, says Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Echoing other recent reports, Bastian says that the team would like to retain him on a one-year deal in the QO range, but will not be interested if his price tag approaches the $35MM given the similarly situated Tim Lincecum. While opinions have varied as to whether Lincecum's deal will have a real impact on the open market, it could have a fairly direct bearing on Jimenez since it takes one competitor out of the free agent supply.
  • Bastian also opines that the Indians will most likely shop for a mid-tier rotation piece while aiming to extend Justin Masterson. MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently previewed the Tribe's offseason, discussing the internal rotation options and noting that the club could well need a replacement for Jimenez.
  • Brad Ausmus has interviewed for the Tigers' managerial opening, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports via Twitter. For more details, see this article from John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.

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