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Top Offseason Storylines For 2012-13

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Blockbuster trades, nine-figure free agent contracts and shrewd minor league signings will all be completed in the coming months, as MLB executives attempt to mold their rosters into World Series contenders. There are inevitably hundreds of rumors and deals to track, but rest assured that MLBTradeRumors.com will have constant updates before, during and after the biggest moves. Here’s a look ahead at ten of the offseason's biggest storylines…

1. Who will pay Josh Hamilton?

There’s no doubt Hamilton could make any team better. Yet so many questions surround the 31-year-old as he hits free agency for the first time. Can he sustain this level of production without landing on the disabled list? Might his poor plate discipline become a serious problem? Should teams worry about his past addiction issues? The Rangers are best-equipped to answer these questions, so other teams figure to monitor Texas’ bidding closely.

Hamilton has a case for a long-term deal worth considerably more than $100MM given his on-field production. Plus, team owners might expect him to generate fan interest and boost TV ratings.

2. Could Alex Rodriguez be traded?

General manager Brian Cashman has acknowledged that the Yankees don't consider Rodriguez a superstar caliber player anymore. Now 37 years old, Rodriguez doesn't resemble his former self. The Yankees know it, and so do the 29 other teams. Trading the three-time MVP will presumably be extremely difficult unless the Yankees absorb most of the $114MM remaining on his contract. That’d be unappealing for New York executives, especially at a time that the trade and free agent market for third basemen looks thin. Like it or not, it seems probable that Rodriguez will return to the Bronx for another year.

3. Who will win the bidding for Zack Greinke?

Greinke, the year’s top free agent starter, could draw interest from both Los Angeles teams. The Angels, who acquired the 29-year-old midseason, have interest in re-signing him. The Dodgers, now flush with cash after an ownership change, could also make an offer. Many other clubs will check in on Greinke, who could obtain the largest contract ever for a right-handed pitcher.

4. Will the Dodgers keep spending?

The Dodgers have made hundreds of millions in future payroll commitments since new ownership gained control of the team this spring. Expect a busy offseason now that they can finally bid on free agents. The Dodgers could pursue free agent starting pitchers such as Greinke, Jake Peavy and Hiroki Kuroda.

5. Will the Mets extend David Wright and R.A. Dickey?

There’s no guarantee Wright and Dickey will be playing for the Mets beyond 2013. Both players will hit free agency a year from now if they haven’t signed contract extensions. It’s difficult to imagine that ownership could convince Wright to stay without offering considerably more than $100MM. Determining Dickey's value is more difficult considering his rapid ascent from journeyman knuckleballer to Cy Young candidate.

6. Will the Rays trade pitching?

The Rays have enviable starting pitching depth and clear needs on offense, so they’ll exchange starters for hitters this offseason, right? Not necessarily. Executive VP Andrew Friedman has said the Rays might keep their starting pitching. 

David Price's salary continues rising, so it's time for the small-market Rays to consider a trade. He’s still three seasons away from free agency, which means there’s no rush to complete a deal. But at a time that Price’s salary could rise to the $10MM range through arbitration, Friedman will have to explore the possibility of dealing the left-hander.

7. Will the Indians trade Chris Perez and Shin-Soo Choo?

It could be time for the Indians to trade two of their most prominent players. Perez, the All-Star closer who publicly criticized ownership toward the end of the regular season, might never have more trade value. His salary projects to rise to the $7MM range this winter, not that that would be an obstacle for large market teams.

Choo will hit free agency a year from now, which means Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti has two chances to make a trade: this winter and at next summer’s trade deadline. It’d make sense for the Indians to trade Choo for a controllable, young player if possible, as a contract extension seems unlikely.

8. Will the new collective bargaining agreement make a difference?

Players, agents and team executives won’t have to overhaul the way they do business this winter, the first full offseason under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement. Free agents will be able to sign generous long-term contracts just as easily as before. In fact, the elimination of the Elias rankings system will be a welcome change for the middle relievers and role players who will no longer be linked to draft pick compensation. However, baseball’s luxury tax will continue to create a deterrent for large market teams who might otherwise spend more aggressively. The Yankees, for example, say they aim to avoid the tax by 2014, which means they’re not expected to be bidding quite as aggressively as in years past.

9. What’s next for Melky Cabrera? 

Cabrera's free agent value plummeted once he received a 50-game suspension for testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone. But he could be an intriguing buy-low option for teams seeking an impact bat. He has put together consecutive All-Star caliber seasons and at 28, he's still in his prime. However, he’s hitting free agency at the same time as many other All-Star outfielders. There’s lots of competition with Hamilton, Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino also seeking new contracts. Still, many teams will have interest in signing Cabrera for one year and a multiyear contract can’t be ruled out.

10. Where do the Red Sox go from here?

Replacing Bobby Valentine with John Farrell should be a positive development for the Red Sox, but they’ve still got lots of work ahead following their first 90-loss season since 1966. They'll need to obtain more starting pitching depth and add to their outfield. Plus, rival general managers will be interested to see if the Red Sox hold onto Jacoby Ellsbury or trade him with one year to go before free agency.

Week In Review: 10/21/12 – 10/27/12

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The Giants are the 2012 World Series Champions after sweeping the Tigers in four games. The victory marks the Giants' second championship in three seasons and gives the National League three straight World Series titles. With the trophy presentation just moments away, let's take a break from the action to catch up on the week that was here at MLBTR…

  • The Red Sox announced the hiring of John Farrell as their new manager and his agreement to a three-year deal that will run through 2015. As compensation to the Blue Jays, to whom Farrell was under contract through 2013, Boston traded shortstop Mike Aviles for right-hander David Carpenter. 
  • The White Sox promoted long-time GM Kenny Williams to executive VP and Rick Hahn to senior VP and general manager. Williams, 48, has been Chicago's GM since the end of the 2000 season.
  • The Marlins fired manager Ozzie Guillen after one season with the team. Guillen, a 16-year MLB veteran who made three All-Star teams as a player, managed the White Sox for eight seasons before joining the Marlins. 
  • Right-handers Dustin Moseley and Tim Stauffer cleared outright waivers and elected to become free agents. Both pitchers were entering their third year of arbitration eligibility and both were seen as likely non-tender candidates by MLB.com's Tim Dierkes in his look at the Padres' arb-eligible players.
  • The Angels signed infielder Angel Sanchez to a minor league deal. The contract contains an invitation to the Halos' Major League Spring Training camp.
  • The Blue Jays designated Tyson Brummett for assignment five days after claiming the right-hander off of waivers from the Phillies. Brummett made his MLB debut earlier this month, getting two strikeouts against the Nationals.
  • Right-hander Manny Corpas elected free agency after being outrighted off of the Cubs' 40-man roster. Corpas made 48 relief appearances in 2012, posting a 5.01 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 46 2/3 innings.
  • The Royals claimed Chris Volstad off of waivers from the Cubs. Volstad, 26, had been a non-tender candidate in Chicago following a season in which he posted a 6.31 ERA in 111 1/3 innings.
  • The Mets claimed catcher Anthony Recker from the Cubs. Recker, 29, posted a .143/.263/.245 slash line in 58 plate appearances for the Athletics and Cubs in 2012. 
  • Right-hander Chad Beck finds himself with a new team after the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Blue Jays. The 27-year-old appeared in 14 games for the Blue Jays this year after spending most of the season at Triple-A.
  • The Mariners released infielder Munenori Kawasaki.The left-handed hitter posted a .192/.257/.202 batting line in 115 plate appearances. The team also parted ways with Miguel Olivo as it declined its option on the veteran catcher.
  • The Twins declined their 2013 club option for Matt Capps. The option was worth $6MM and the veteran right-hander will instead receive a $250K buyout.
  • The Padres requested unconditional release waivers for right-hander Micah Owings. 
  • Bobby Wilson's headed north of the border as the Blue Jays claimed the catcher off waivers from the Angels. Wilson, 29, posted a .211/.277/.292 batting line in 201 plate appearances and prevented 29% of stolen base attempts from behind the plate. 

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Rockies’ Opening, Dodgers

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The San Francisco Giants have the opportunity this evening to give the National League its third consecutive World Series win, the Senior Circuit's longest such streak in three decades. If Game Four starter Matt Cain wins tonight, he will become only the third pitcher in MLB history to record three series clinching victories in one post-season. As the Giants try to bring the Commissioner's Trophy to the NL West for the second time in three years, here's the latest from that division:

  • Major League Baseball presented Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw with the Roberto Clemente Award, given to the player who most embodies the humanitarian vision of the late Pirates star, prior to the start of Game 4 of the World Series, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
  • The Rockies have expressed interested in interviewing Giants bench coach Ron Wotus for their managerial opening, reports the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders. Saunders also confirmed Matt Williams, the Diamondbacks' third base coach, is the sixth candidate to be interviewed joining Rockies bench coach Tom Runnells, Jason Giambi, former Rockies shortstop Walt Weiss, ex-White Sox and Mets manager Jerry Manuel, and former Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin.
  • Weiss would be an inspired choice to become the Rockies next manager, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Weiss was universally respected for his knowledge and work ethic by his teammates and he knows the Rockies' culture, having played for the team and worked as a special assistant for general manager Dan O'Dowd, opined Renck. 
  • Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, in his World Series column for the Los Angeles Times, understands the logic of those who believe it is difficult for teams in Southern California to win the World Series because of the cold weather conditions in October.
  • MLB is in discussions about the possibility of starting its 2014 season in Australia, reports Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. A MLB spokesman said the possibility of playing in Australia is not currently being explored. Dilbeck also referenced a report in the Sydney Morning Herald where the preference of the Australian promoters is a series between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Sydney.
  • Sharon Robinson, daughter of Jackie Robinson, told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times she will be joining the Dodgers' board of directors representing her family and the Jackie Robinson Foundation. A Dodgers official said the team is finalizing an agreement with the Robinson family but declined to comment publicly in advance of an announcement.

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Quick Hits: Leyland, Orioles, Chris Perez

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Let's take a look at the latest news and notes on what could be the final day of the 2012 baseball season.

  • Jim Leyland's future as manager of the Tigers is still unclear, tweets Tom Gage of the Detroit News. Before tonight's World Series game, Leyland said nobody puts a team together better than team President/CEO/GM Dave Dombrowski adding "hopefully he feels I'm the guy to manage it."
  • The Orioles' most pressing needs for 2013 are a frontline starter, a second baseman, and dealing with the unsettled positions of left field and first base, writes MASN.com's Roch Kubatko. 
  • Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy are among the Orioles who could make a big step in 2013, according to Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.
  • The Indians should only trade Chris Perez if they feel Vinnie Pestano can replace him as closer, opined Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer as he delved into his readers' mailbag. Hoynes also believes Lonnie Chisenhall will be given every opportunity to be the everyday third baseman and Sandy Alomar, Jr. would have been the slam-dunk choice as manager, if Terry Francona hadn’t been so adamant about getting back in the dugout.
  • In the wake of Shohei Otani's announced intention to pursue a MLB career rather than play in Japan, Japanese baseball officials are considering stricter rules for amateur players who want to do the same, reports the Associated Press (via the Boston Herald).
  • Tom Kotchman denied he was forced out by the Angels insisting his decision to leave was due to a desire to find something closer to his Tampa-St. Petersburg area home, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. 
  • Congratulations to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who was named the first female president in the 104-year history of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
  • Manny Ramirez's quest to resurrect his baseball career has the slugger heading to the Dominican Republic in hopes of catching the eye of a potential suitor during a tryout for three Japanese teams, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. 

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

NL Central Notes: Astros, Cardinals, Braun, Cubs

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Earlier today, MLBTR gave you the latest news and notes from the AL East and the NL West. Now, let's visit the NL Central, which could be in its final hours as the only six-team division in baseball. 
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow's vision to rebuild the franchise is a club that grows and develops its players but can spend when it needs to thanks to increased revenue from a new local cable partnership with Comcast, according to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle.
  • There will be competition for at least one spot in the Cardinals' starting rotation, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold. Goold theorizes that competition will pit incumbent Lance Lynn against Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and Shelby Miller.
  • In a separate piece, Goold named the seven best starting pitching prospects in the Cardinals' system that have yet to exhaust their rookie eligibility, including the aforementioned Rosenthal and Miller.
  • Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch lists five reasons for optimism and five reasons for concern for the 2013 Cardinals.
  • After speaking with members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has the distinct impression that Ryan Braun will be penalized in the voting for NL MVP because of his failed drug test last year and subsequent successful appeal. Haudricourt also believes the failed drug test played a role in Buster Posey being named the NL winner of the Hank Aaron Award instead of Braun. 
  • The Cubs have hired Derek Johnson to become their new minor league pitching coordinator, tweets Baseball America's Aaron Fitt. Johnson was Associate Head Coach/pitching coach at Vanderbilt where he tutored six pitchers who were drafted in the first round including David Price and Sonny Gray.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Rivera, Blue Jays, Rays, Molina

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Let's take a look at some items out of the American League East..

  • Mariano Rivera says that he isn't sure if he wants to return in 2013, but Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) cautions that it may just be part of negotiations with the Yankees.  The closer is coming off of a deal which paid him $15MM in each of the last two seasons and the Bombers will likely try to shave that number down on a new contract.  Rivera and the Yankees have a history of tough negotiations, including a couple of years ago when he threatened that he would sign with the Red Sox.
  • The Blue Jays are not considering Brad Ausmus, Jim Tracy, or Manny Acta for their managerial vacancy, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.  Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach is in the mix along with DeMarlo Hale, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Blue Jays third base coach Brian Butterfield.  Along with Butterfield, bench coach Don Wakamatsu is another internal possibility.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times believes that the Rays will wind up extending a qualifying offer to B.J. Upton as he will most likely turn it down, putting the club in position to net a compensatory pick.  Last month, more than 61% of MLBTR readers polled said that the Rays should extend Upton a qualifying offer.
  • Meanwhile, the Rays also have a decision to make on Jose Molina's $1.8MM option, which can be bought out for $300K.  While the catcher hit just .223/.286/.355 last season, Topkin notes that his work with the pitchers was strong and he could be worth keeping.

Sherman on Mets, Phillies, Cabrera, Olivo, Shoppach

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Even in the middle of the World Series, baseball people continue to talk about embattled Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  News on Cabrera and other notes from today’s column..

  • Sherman spoke with a group of baseball executives about where Cabrera will sign and the Mets and Phillies both came up regularly.  The Mets could look to Cabrera as corner outfield insurance against Jason Bay and Lucas Duda if he is affordable.  Such a move would make even more sense if they are unable to retain Scott Hairston.
  • The majority of the execs see Cabrera winding up with a one-year deal in the $2-$5MM range to audition himself.  One exec could see him getting $10-$12MM while another said he could possibly get one year at $8-10MM.
  • The Mets are unlikely to obtain catcher Kelly Shoppach and they are instead eyeing free agent Miguel Olivo.  When the Mets were combing the trade market for catchers this summer, the Mets had Olivo as a secondary candidate to the Rockies’ Ramon Hernandez before ultimately trading for Shoppach. The Mariners announced on Wednesday that they would not pick up Olivo’s $3MM option for 2013.
  • Yankees officials never saw Cabrera as a negative influence on Robinson Cano the way that people outside of the organization did, but he doesn’t look to be a great fit regardless.  The Yankees might not be able to offer the certainty of playing time that Cabrera will need to rebuild his value.

Cafardo On Dodgers, Hamilton, Brewers, Otani

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For most of his eight-year tenure with the Dodgers, General Manager Ned Colletti had to mindful of the budget and the bottom line.  Now, Colletti has the financial freedom to make bold moves, such as the trade with the Red Sox which brought Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Carl Crawford aboard.  Colletti has no doubt that Crawford is ready to regain his old form.  "He’s still a dynamic player," Colletti said. "A couple of years ago, he was one of the most sought-after free agents in the game for good reason. People in Tampa saw it a lot. People in the AL East saw it a lot — a combination of abilities not many players have. In this league, the ability to hit and steal, doubles and triples — this is a tough park for home runs sometimes — his ability to create things offensively with speed and ability to hit."  Here's more from today's column..

  • There’s mounting evidence that the Brewers could be one of the teams that emerges in the market for Josh Hamilton.  Milwaukee is at least looking into the possibility, though their top priorities are still finding a starting pitcher and revamping their bullpen.
  • The Cubs appear to be players for 18-year-old pitcher Shohei Otani, but Theo Epstein recently expressed trepidation about plunging back into the Japanese market.  Otani was recently taken with the first-overall pick in the NPB draft and the Nippon Ham Fighters have until March to try and sign him.  A major league club can still sign him at any time, but it would likely irritate Japanese baseball officials.
  • Bobby Valentine declined to say whether he'd like to be considered for the managerial openings with the Rockies, Marlins, and Blue Jays.  The manager also clarified some of his recent remarks on the Red Sox and noted that his line about leaving a note for incoming manager John Farrell was merely an old-time baseball joke.
  • After removing himself from the interview process with the Astros and declining to meet with the Marlins, it's possible that Brad Ausmus only had his eye on the Red Sox job.  However, teams will still try to lure the former catcher who quickly found himself in high demand.
  • Terry Francona did speak with the Marlins earlier this year, but he wanted to be with the Indians all along.

Quick Hits: White Sox, Orioles, Pierzynski, Dodgers

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Links for Saturday evening…

  • Chris Kamka of CSNChicago.com looked at the best and worst trades Kenny Williams made as GM of the White Sox. Williams was recently promoted to vice president with Rick Hahn taking over as GM.
  • CSNBaltimore.com's Rich Dubroff listed the five best top draft picks in Orioles' history, meaning 1978 second rounder Cal Ripken Jr. was ineligible.
  • White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski says that he hasn't heard from the club as he is set to hit the open market, but a club source says Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf had lunch with Pierzynski after the season, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Meanwhile, GM Rick Hahn says that he is going to take his time in talks with Pierzynski, Jake Peavy, or Kevin Youkilis.
  • The Orioles are set to cut ties with former first-round pick Billy Rowell as he approaches minor league free agency, an industry source tells Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun. Rowell, the ninth-overall selection in the 2006 draft, signed for a $2.1MM bonus but failed to advance beyond Double-A in his time with the O's.
  • The Dodgers have hired Patrick Guerrero as their Latin American coordinator, a baseball source tells Ben Badler of Baseball America. Guerrero was let go by the Mariners earlier this month along with vice president of international scouting Bob Engle.
  • Giants president Larry Baer isn't threatened by the prospect of the Dodgers spending wildly this winter, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
  • The Orioles are still waiting for Cuban defector Henry Urrutia to be able to report to Sarasota, Florida after signing with the club in July, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. The O's gave the 25-year-old outfielder a $778K signing bonus and he could begin his professional career at Double-A.

Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

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