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Archives for October 2012

Tigers Expected To Exercise Peralta’s Option

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The Tigers are expected to exercise their 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta following a strong postseason showing from the shortstop, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. The Tigers consider the $6MM option “reasonable,” according to Heyman.

The Tigers would ideally like to have a shortstop with more range than Peralta, especially with Miguel Cabrera beside him at third base. There’s a chance GM Dave Dombrowski could explore deals for shortstops after exercising the option, Heyman reports. Yunel Escobar figures to be available, but he doesn’t appear to interest the Tigers.

Peralta, who homered in Game One of the World Series last night, posted a .239/.305/.384 batting line in 585 plate appearances with Detroit this past year. The Tigers would have to pay the 30-year-old a $500K buyout if they don't exercise his option. Back in September I explained that the option would likely appeal to the Tigers given the scarcity of alternatives available.

Latest On Ichiro, Yankees

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Ichiro Suzuki strongly wants to re-sign with the Yankees, a person close to the free agent outfielder told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Ichiro enjoyed playing in a winning atmosphere with players in his age range this past season, Sherman reports. It sounds as though Ichiro could be retained for a one-year deal in the $5-8MM range.

The Yankees still intend to build around left-handed power, Sherman reports. This will make it difficult to accommodate both Ichiro and Brett Gardner without shifting Gardner to a reserve role. Yankees GM Brian Cashman recently said the Yankees will have a better sense of how Ichiro fits in their plans when they hold their upcoming pro scouting meetings.

Managerial Notes: Marlins, Blue Jays

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Three teams are still looking for managers: the Marlins, Blue Jays and Rockies. Here’s the latest on the managerial searches, starting in Miami…

  • Ozzie Guillen told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that he doesn't think the Marlins made the right decision in firing him earlier this week. Guillen had three years and $7.5MM remaining on his contract at the time of his dismissal.
  • Former MLB catcher Mike Redmond has impressed baseball people such as Jack McKeon and Fredi Gonzalez with his knowledge of the game, Spencer reports. Redmond, a minor league manager in the Blue Jays organization, appears to be a leading candidate for the Marlins' managerial position. The Marlins hope to interview others, including Reds pitching coach Bryan Price, according to Spencer.
  • Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar won’t be interviewed for the Blue Jays job, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports (on Twitter). The Blue Jays interviewed Bogar for the position two years ago before hiring John Farrell.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels will pursue starting pitchers and relievers in the offseason ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Dan Haren, SP: $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
  • Ervin Santana, SP: $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Free Agents

The Angels are expected to make significant changes to a team that fell short of expectations in 2012. While it'd be hard to match the kind of impact additions they acquired a year ago, GM Jerry Dipoto recently indicated to Mike DiGiovanna of Los Angeles Times that the Angels will be able to spend in the offseason ahead. "We've never been short of resources," the GM said.

Mike Trout - Angels (PW)

Zack Greinke will hit free agency as the top starting pitcher available. Whoever signs the right-hander will presumably complete a deal after he has listened to offers from other clubs. He didn’t wait this long and turn down a nine-figure contract only to pass on free agency with weeks remaining before his best chance for a major payday. The Angels should bid on Greinke, an elite pitcher in his prime. They have the need and the resources, so spending in excess of $110MM would be justified.

The Angels are expected to decline club options for starters Dan Haren and Ervin Santana. Haren had a mediocre season, and won't be retained for $15.5MM. That shouldn't stop the Angels from making him a $13.3MM qualifying offer in my view. Extending a qualifying offer would lead to one of two desirable outcomes: Haren returns on a one-year deal or he departs, netting the Angels a compensatory draft choice in 2013.

Santana’s option will also be declined following a season in which his ERA climbed over 5.00 and his fastball velocity dropped. He won’t get a one-year qualifying offer from the Angels — it’d be an excessive commitment. Even if the Angels sign Greinke, they’ll be expected to seek a back-of-the-rotation option to complement Garrett Richards and Jerome Williams. Dipoto will be able to address this need later in the offseason, when potential bargains exist in free agency.

While Torii Hunter had a tremendous season, there are signs that his production could fade in the relatively near future. Hunter led the American League in batting average on balls in play this past season, posting a career high mark of .389. That's not sustainable for anyone, let alone a 37-year-old with diminishing speed. Furthermore, Hunter's isolated power dipped for the third consecutive season. It must also be noted that at some point Hunter’s defensive skills will decline. If the Angels want to re-sign Hunter for something like two years and $20MM, they should go for it. He’s still a good player. But if it takes a longer term contract or significantly more dollars it’d make sense for the Angels to let him go. Even large market teams must be discerning with their money.

This brings us to Vernon Wells, the 33-year-old outfielder with two years and $42MM remaining on his contract. Though the Angels would reportedly like to trade Wells, he has limited trade value after a season in which he posted a .230/.279/.403 batting line and hit 11 home runs. Unless the Angels work out a deal involving a comparable bad contract or absorb $30MM-plus of Wells' contract, he's not going anywhere.

It’s worth discussing the contract status of another Angels outfielder, even if he just completed his rookie season. Mike Trout might be viewed as an extension candidate after an extraordinary debut performance. While I understand the urge to lock Trout up, the Angels should be patient. The only players who compare to Trout at this point are Hall of Fame caliber talents, which means he’d be justified in demanding a historic financial commitment. If the Angels wait a year and Trout repeats his performance, they can pursue an extension at that point with the knowledge that a discount wasn’t attainable. But if Trout’s not quite as dominant in 2013, the Angels might be able to avoid paying him an unprecedented amount.

Though Alberto Callaspo will likely return to the Angels through the arbitration process, the Angels could seek upgrades at third base. There’s not a whole lot out there now, either in trades or free agency. Dipoto should keep tabs on trade candidates in case someone like David Wright or Chase Headley becomes available. Alex Rodriguez, another potentially available star, wouldn’t be a fit in Anaheim unless the Yankees are taking on a significant majority of the $114MM remaining on the 37-year-old’s contract.

The Angels got an early start on the offseason this month, signing Chris Iannetta to a three-year extension. It seems likely that other prospective free agents including Maicer Izturis, LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen will move on this winter.

Dipoto will be seeking bullpen help in the months to come. He has said he doesn’t intend to pay a premium for relievers given the volatility of relief performances from year to year. Rafael Soriano might tempt the Angels if he opts out of his contract with the Yankees, yet a major free agent deal seems unlikely. Perhaps trade candidates such as Chris Perez and Joel Hanrahan will appeal to the GM instead. Alternatively, he could wait and obtain an affordable middle reliever or two in January or February.

The team's arbitration class could shrink to just three players if Williams gets non-tendered this winter. The remaining trio of Callaspo, Kevin Jepsen and Kendrys Morales shouldn't cost much more than $10MM in total and doesn't include any obvious extension candidates.

There's seemingly no chance the Angels will generate as much buzz as they did last winter. But Dipoto's roster already has enough star power that he doesn't need to make headlines for the offseason to be considered a success. He needs pitching and at this point that seems like an attainable goal.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

For Latos to reach our projected salary, he'll have to set a new first-time starting pitcher record.  A comparison to the relevant slice of Jered Weaver's career suggests it's possible but far from certain, especially with Weaver holding a signficant advantage in wins.  At any rate, Latos should exceed $4MM and is on track for some large raises in the coming years unless the Reds extend him.  Latos' agency, Bledsoe Brothers, would be in uncharted waters on an extension, as there are no comparable contracts signed by other pitchers.  I'd expect more than $60MM on a five-year deal.

Bailey's peripheral numbers were remarkably similar to last year's, but he topped 200 innings for the first time, posted his first sub-4.00 ERA, and finished his season with a run of dominance that included a no-hitter.  Given the 26-year-old's shoulder issues prior to this year, the Reds may want to be cautious about an extension.  Leake has shown himself to be a credible back-end starter.  Perhaps the Reds hoped for more upon drafting him eighth overall in 2009, but he's still a good deal his first time through arbitration.

In the bullpen, the Reds have Bray, Ondrusek, and Simon up for arbitration.  Bray missed most of the season with injuries, and could be a non-tender candidate.  On the other hand, his raise wouldn't be much, and his injuries were not arm-related.  Ondrusek's control problems continued this year, and he was left off the Reds' playoff roster in favor of J.J. Hoover.  Ondrusek could be cut loose, more out of concern for a roster spot than his salary.  Simon, claimed off waivers from the Orioles in April, increased his groundball rate and had a solid year, so he's safe.

On the position player side, Stubbs' offense continued to plummet.  He could be trade bait this winter, but it seems more likely the Reds will wait until Billy Hamilton is ready for the Majors.  I expect Stubbs to be tendered a contract, though it's not a total lock.  Heisey seems secure in his oft-used fourth outfielder role.  Valdez is headed for a non-tender after posting a .463 OPS this year.

If Latos, Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Bray, Heisey, Ondrusek, and Simon are retained, the Reds are looking at $20MM for eight arbitration eligible players.  As I've mentioned, however, some of those eight are borderline non-tender candidates.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Quick Hits: Fujinami, Antonetti, Giants, Guillen

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In a subscriber-only piece, Baseball America's Ben Badler wrote about Japanese right-hander Shintaro Fujinami, who may be the country's best high school player. Fellow right-hander Shohei Otani has garnered most of the recent attention, but Badler says talent evaluators are split. It's unclear if Fujinami will try to join an MLB team in the near future, however. Here's the latest from around the league…

AL East Links: Red Sox, Ortiz, Yankees, Orioles

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We've already had two managerial changes in the AL East this offseason, and a ton of player moves will surely follow this winter. Here's the latest from the only division to house three 90-win teams in 2012…

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lohse, Reds

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All five NL Central teams are in full-on offseason mode now that the Cardinals have been eliminated from the postseason. Here's the latest from what used to be baseball's only six-team division…

  • The Pirates have continued putting their prospects through Navy SEALS-style exercises at all hours, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Outfield prospect Gregory Polanco told Kovacevic that he injured himself in an unconventional drill that included sprints through ice water and leaping into a sand pit. Team president Frank Coonelly stated his support for the Pirates' baseball operations staff in late September, after news of the unconventional training methods surfaced.
  • Kyle Lohse, a free agent this coming offseason, said he'd like to play for a winner, B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest reports. The right-hander hasn't been in contact with the Cardinals about a new deal and is expected to sign elsewhere. "There are certain places I'd like to go and certain places I probably wouldn't," he said.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the Reds' 2013 payroll commitments and determines that if GM Walt Jocketty does anything big this offseason, it will likely be with a trade rather than a free agent signing.

Mariners Release Munenori Kawasaki

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The Mariners announced that they released infielder Munenori Kawasaki. Seattle's roster now includes 39 players.

Kawasaki, 31, appeared in 61 games for Seattle in 2012. He appeared in one game at third base, mostly playing the middle infield positions. The left-handed hitter posted a .192/.257/.202 batting line in 115 plate appearances. Kawasaki and the Mariners agreed to a minor league contract worth $625K back in January.

Mariners Decline 2013 Option For Olivo

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The Mariners announced that they have declined their 2013 option for Miguel Olivo. Olivo's contract included a $3MM club option for 2013, but the Mariners preferred the $750K buyout. The catcher will hit free agency once the World Series ends. 

Olivo, 34, appeared in 87 games last year, posting a .222/.239/.381 batting line in 323 plate appearances. He hit 12 home runs in total, doing more damage against left-handers (seven homers, .657 OPS) than right-handers (five homers, .590 OPS) as usual. Olivo prevented 31% of stolen base attempts against him this past season.

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