The seventh annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.
Last year, we introduced a contest that allowed you to test your free agent prediction abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers. Of 5,020 total entries, only one person managed to bat .300 and make 15 correct picks. I set the bar pretty low, managing just eight correct. The contest is back for 2013 and is open now! You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 7th at midnight central time, and you're free to make changes up until that point. A Facebook account is required. Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you'll be making predictions, along with my guesses.
1. Zack Greinke – Angels. Greinke is clearly the best available free agent pitcher this winter. He's got it all — the 29-year-old former Cy Young winner misses bats, limits free passes, and has been battle-tested in the American League. He's also avoided any major arm injuries to date. I find him a better bet than Hamilton, hence the first overall ranking. The Angels badly need Greinke back in their rotation, and they'd be well-served to keep him away from the division rival Rangers. Huge money will be required, especially if the Dodgers also join the bidding.
2. Josh Hamilton – Rangers. Hamilton is a fascinating free agent, combining superstar talent with a lengthy injury history and early-career drug problems. It's going to take a special kind of recklessness to guarantee this man $150MM, and the Dodgers' outfield is already full. This early in the offseason, people toss around speculation on the Tigers, Giants, Phillies, Mariners, Orioles, and Brewers, matches that don't work for me. Though the Rangers won't make Hamilton an offer right out of the gate, he's expected to circle back with them after surveying the market. If Texas has not allocated big money to Greinke at that point, they could go back to the table with Hamilton.
3. Michael Bourn – Nationals. The speedy Bourn plays strong center field defense and gets on base just enough. The free agent market generally rewards power, but these days Bourn's skillset is appreciated as well. Bourn has long been speculated as the heir apparent to the Nationals' center field job, and the team's comfort with agent Scott Boras doesn't hurt. Still, this match is far from a lock if we're talking Torii Hunter 2007 money. I don't expect the Braves to re-sign Bourn, but the Phillies are another potential match.
4. Anibal Sanchez – Tigers. Sanchez, 29 in February, has been a dependable number two or three starter over the past three years. He capped off his 2012 resume with a successful American League stint and 20 strong playoff innings. A C.J. Wilson-type contract seems fair. The Tigers have interest in bringing Sanchez back, though the Blue Jays, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, and Padres are among the teams that may make bids if he hits the open market. Unlike Kyle Lohse, Sanchez will not cost a draft pick to sign.
5. B.J. Upton – Phillies. Upton's best offensive season was 2007, when the Rays employed Steve Henderson as their hitting coach. Henderson now fills that role for the Phillies, which has to be a plus for the center fielder. Playing on the East Coast might also appeal to Upton, who hails from Norfolk. From the Phillies' point of view, Upton could add some balance and power to their lineup as well as strong center field defense. At 28 there's room for growth with Upton, but the status quo would probably give a team their money's worth. The Nationals and Rangers could be other contenders for his services.
6. Nick Swisher – Orioles. Swisher hasn't played left field regularly in many years, but if he's willing to do so for the Orioles they could be a match. The 31-year-old also plays some first base, another question mark for the O's. Swisher would be a fine addition to any lineup, though he doesn't pass the gut test as a potential $100MM player. Perhaps we just have to account for salary inflation — $100MM doesn't buy what it used to. The Giants and Mariners are other reasonable fits here.
7. Edwin Jackson – Blue Jays. Perhaps under the advice of former agent Scott Boras, Jackson turned down at least one three-year offer last offseason in favor of a one-year deal with the Nationals. He's since joined Legacy Sports Group and figures to snag the first multiyear deal of his career. The 29-year-old throws hard, misses bats, and takes the ball every fifth day. The Jays are one of many teams that'd take a look unless, perhaps, Jackson insists on four guaranteed years or a $15MM annual salary.
8. Dan Haren – Padres. Haren is an interesting case. As recently as last year, he was a 235 inning a year horse, a good number two on most staffs. He had some home run problems in 2012 and missed a few starts with back issues, and to hear multiple MLB executives tell it, we've got him ranked way too high. The Angels didn't want him at a club option that amounted to one year and $12MM. However, he seems like a solid play in that price range if his back checks out.
9. Hiroki Kuroda – Yankees. Sure, Kuroda turns 38 in February, but he had a great year for the Yankees on a one-year deal. If he's open to another one-year contract, the Yankees will probably be happy to get it done. There should also be opportunities on the West Coast should Kuroda choose to return, but he may come with a draft pick cost if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Yankees.
10. Kyle Lohse – Dodgers. Though I pushed him up to the #10 spot on this list, I'm not a huge believer in Lohse having sustained success over a four or five-year contract. It might take a healthy payroll and a win-now attitude to meet Boras' demands on Lohse, so I went with the Dodgers. If the Royals make a free agent starter splash, I think they'd prefer Sanchez to Lohse.
11. Angel Pagan – Giants. Obviously the Giants want to avoid another Aaron Rowand deal, although five years and $60MM might be the kind of contract Pagan seeks. It's easy to picture GM Brian Sabean wanting to keep his top of the order Pagan-Marco Scutaro combination together fresh off a World Championship.
12. Shane Victorino – Braves. Victorino must re-establish his reputation as an above-average outfielder, after an off-year hitting right-handed pitching. I imagine Victorino will be open to all three outfield positions, which would create a wide market potentially including the Braves, Rangers, Nationals, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Tigers, and if the price is low enough, Reds and Mets. He's a strong Plan B in the likely event the Braves are outbid for Bourn, but if the bidding reaches three guaranteed years on Victorino I can see some teams dropping out.
13. David Ortiz – Red Sox. Last winter, Ortiz was compelled to accept Boston's arbitration offer, perhaps because another team would have had to surrender a draft pick to sign him. That, plus his inability to play the field, limited his market. Ortiz, 37 in November, continued to rake in 2012 but missed a large chunk of time to an Achilles tendon injury. Big Papi again wants a two-year deal. If the Sox have warmed to the idea, Ortiz should sign soon rather than grapple with the same draft pick compensation issue he had a year ago.
14. Mike Napoli – Astros. A qualifying offer would be a risky move on the Rangers' part; if they make it, the 31-year-old might feel compelled to accept. There aren't too many teams looking to spend big money on catching. The Rays could fit on a team-friendly deal, while the Astros have the payroll space but not necessarily the inclination.
15. Adam LaRoche – Nationals. There seems to be momentum toward a deal, as LaRoche came up huge for the Nationals this year and was comfortable there. Otherwise, a three-year deal north of $10MM per scares me a little bit, and I don't see a huge field of suitors with a qualifying offer attached. The Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants could, in theory, look to add a first baseman. They won't all add one, nor would they all have interest in signing LaRoche for multiple years this winter. The problem with the Bourn-plus-LaRoche scenario for the Nats is that it requires a trade of Mike Morse.
16. Ryan Dempster – Brewers. Count me as a skeptic on the Brewers-Hamilton idea. I do expect them to bring in a veteran leader for their rotation, and Dempster fits the bill. The 35-year-old enjoyed a decade in the Midwest with the Reds and Cubs, and perhaps at his age would be receptive to a two-year deal with a vesting option. I can see a strong market for Dempster, but it may be more about where he and his family want to be geographically.
17. Rafael Soriano – Yankees. Three years ago, Soriano accepted arbitration from the Braves following a strong '09 season rather than hit the market with a draft pick cost attached, and Atlanta unsurprisingly traded him. Would Soriano accept a qualifying offer from the Yankees this time around after opting out, knowing it would net him an extra $800K overall? That'd give him only a week to consider multiyear offers from other teams, and Scott Boras is known for taking his time.
Soriano had a strong 2012, but he'll be 33 in December, has a concerning injury history and reputation, and could cost a draft pick. Boras has pulled rabbits out of his hat before, but currently I can't identify a team that would offer Soriano $13-15MM a year for three or four years. I think the Tigers have bigger needs, and the Angels aren't going to do that deal with Boras. If the market runs dry, maybe Boras would come back to Randy Levine and the Yankees in January assuming Mariano Rivera retires. You'll notice that I predicted Rivera will come back to the Yankees, though, so the two guesses don't work together as a cohesive scenario.
18. Melky Cabrera – Red Sox. Cabrera, disgraced this year by a 50-game PED suspension and cover-up attempt, could settle for an affordable one-year deal to prove he can provide drug-free offense. The Red Sox will likely be thinking short-term in free agency this offseason, with the most question marks in recent memory. The Orioles, Mets, Phillies, and Mariners are other possible fits, but any team signing Melky will have to brace for a certain amount of media scrutiny as a tradeoff for the bargain contract.
19. Shaun Marcum – Cubs. The question with Marcum is how intent he is on playing for a contender, since teams like the Cubs, Royals, Padres, and Twins may have interest. Marcum will only be 31 in December, but he battled elbow pain this year and doesn't have the power repertoire of an Edwin Jackson. He'll hold appeal to many teams if he's open to a two-year deal.
20. Torii Hunter – Yankees. I reported last week that the Angels are highly unlikely to re-sign Hunter. That doesn't close the door completely, but he'll explore the market and probably won't have draft pick compensation attached. A one-year deal is possible, so the Yankees could add him as Nick Swisher's replacement without a long-term commitment. The Rangers, Orioles, and Phillies could be other possibilities.
21. Russell Martin – Yankees. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote in September, Martin may not see an offer matching the three years and $20MM proposed by the Yankees prior to the season. The simplest solution would be a one or two-year deal to remain with the Yankees. The Rays, White Sox, Rangers, Mets, Astros, and Pirates may also be in the market for a catcher.
22. Cody Ross – Red Sox. Ross provided good value for the Red Sox in 2012 at $3MM, down from his $6.3MM salary in the previous year. He'll be seeking multiple years for at least his 2011 salary. The Sox have interest in a new deal, but I don't expect them to go overboard for Ross.
23. Marco Scutaro – Giants. With an excellent stint with the Giants following a trade from the Rockies, the 37-year-old will have good buzz on the open market if he gets there. I can see the Giants doing something slightly unreasonable to retain him as their second baseman.
24. Stephen Drew – Red Sox. Drew is the best available shortstop in a weak market. He's relatively young (30 in March), but he missed a huge amount of the last two seasons due to July 2011 ankle surgery. As a Boras guy, a one-year contract to rebuild value could be the strategy, making Boston a nice fit if the A's don't bring Drew back. The Blue Jays, Rays, Twins, and Dodgers could also seek a shortstop this offseason.
25. Joe Saunders – Orioles. Saunders pitched well for the Orioles in the regular season and postseason following an August trade. The 31-year-old grew up in northern Virginia, so Baltimore is a strong fit if they'll pony up the multiyear deal Saunders couldn't find last offseason.
26. Ryan Ludwick – Reds. Ludwick's career seemed to be trending downward, but he bounced back in 2012 to hit 26 home runs in 472 plate appearances. I imagine the 34-year-old will require a multiyear deal. The Reds have the budget to re-sign Ludwick, though spending decent money there could limit their search for a leadoff hitter.
27. Kevin Youkilis – Phillies. Youkilis' numbers have been trending downward, but the third base market is terrible and he could still secure a multiyear deal. The Phillies have the need, though signing both Upton and Youk would put them near their limit. The Orioles, Dodgers, and Indians are other options if the White Sox don't re-sign Youkilis.
28. Francisco Liriano – Red Sox. Liriano posted a 5.34 ERA in 2012, walking five batters per nine innings. He had the same ugly walk rate in 2011. Nonetheless, his 2006 and 2010 seasons are tantalizing, and the 29-year-old can probably be had on a one-year deal. All kinds of teams will line up to try to fix him; the Padres, Blue Jays, Cubs, Royals, and Astros seem like good fits as well.
29. Carlos Villanueva – Royals. Villanueva, 29 in November, was pretty good in 16 starts for the Blue Jays this year, with a 3.44 K/BB ratio. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos called Villanueva's durability an unknown, comments that disappointed the righty. Villanueva will clearly be seeking a rotation spot, and teams such as the Royals, Padres, Twins, Indians, and Cubs have the vacancy.
30. A.J. Pierzynski – Rangers. Pierzynski, 36 in December, put on a surprising power display in 2012 with a career-high 27 home runs. He slugged .412 on the road, though, and that's a reasonable projection moving forward. It's difficult to picture A.J. leaving the Sox, though he nearly signed with the Dodgers during the 2010-11 offseason before owner Jerry Reinsdorf stepped in. The White Sox could give the catching job to Tyler Flowers, while Pierzynski could replace Napoli in Texas.
31. Joe Blanton – Twins. The Twins, Cubs, and Padres are seeking two starters apiece this offseason, so I've mixed and matched with some of the mid-tier guys. Blanton, 32 in December, is generally good for 190 innings and would be well-served to choose a team with a big ballpark.
32. Brandon McCarthy – Athletics. The A's and their fans rallied behind McCarthy after his September emergency brain surgery, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle expects that special bond to lead to a new contract.
33. Jason Grilli – Brewers. The Brewers may be willing to put some dollars toward revamping their bullpen, though Grilli will be a hot commodity after posting a 13.8 K/9 and 32 holds for the Pirates. Though he turns 36 in November, Grilli seems likely to find a multiyear deal as someone's new setup man.
34. Kyuji Fujikawa – Angels. Fujikawa was a dominant closer in Japan, and the 32-year-old is finally getting his shot at MLB. The Angels are expected to augment their bullpen this winter, and Fujikawa is a nice addition.
35. Koji Uehara – Dodgers. Uehara, 38 in April, was limited to 37 innings this year due to a lat strain. He remains dominant, however, and should attract strong interest on a one-year deal. The Dodgers could further deepen their bullpen by bringing him aboard.
36. Ryan Madson – Tigers. I applauded the Reds for pulling off the impossible last offseason: signing an elite, relatively young Boras client coming off a strong season to a one-year deal. Then Madson missed the entire season with Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old is in line for another one-year deal, and could solidify the back end of the Tigers' bullpen.
37. Joakim Soria – Royals. Soria, who had Tommy John surgery around the same time as Madson, won our recent Free Agent Faceoff against him. At 29 in May, Soria still has age on his side. He told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star earlier this month that remaining with the Royals is best for him and his family.
38. Joel Peralta – Mets. The Rays are known for high bullpen turnover, and Peralta might have to move on despite his strong desire to stay. I'm guessing someone will commit two years to Peralta even though he turns 37 in March, and it won't be the Rays. The Mets could use a solid veteran arm at the back end of their bullpen, and Peralta's flyball tendencies might not be a problem at Citi Field.
39. Mariano Rivera – Yankees. It's clearly Yankees or retirement for Mo. I generally try to create one cohesive scenario with my free agent predictions, but I have to admit the Yankees are unlikely to have both Rivera and Soriano in their 2013 bullpen. Rivera had surgery to repair a torn ACL in June, and I'll hold him to his word that he wouldn't go out like that.
40. Ichiro Suzuki – Rays. If Ichiro is willing to prioritize starting for a contender over his salary, the Rays could be a match. He might not be Plan A for many teams, but plenty of clubs have corner outfielder openings and would welcome the attention that might accompany Ichiro.
41. Jeff Keppinger – Orioles. Keppinger was non-tendered by the Giants a year ago, but the high-contact infielder bounced back to hit .325/.367/.439 for the Rays in 418 plate appearances. Obviously that production is unsustainable, but it might net the 32-year-old a multiyear deal or a starting gig. The Orioles are one possibility, though they do have internal options at second base.
42. Mike Adams – Phillies. The Phillies probably cannot afford all the players I've picked for them, but on an individual level Adams makes sense. The 34-year-old has been a dominant setup man, though he had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome this month. Adams expects to be 100% by Spring Training, though there is some risk he won't be.
43. Andy Pettitte – Yankees. Pettitte, 40, surprisingly came out of retirement to sign a minor league deal with the Yankees in March. He joined the Yankees' rotation in May and pitched well in nine starts before breaking his ankle in June. He came back strong in September and the playoffs, and seems likely to re-sign with the Yankees rather than retire again.
44. Jose Valverde – Reds. Valverde still holds cache with MLB executives, who insisted I should not omit Valverde from my top 50 despite his rough year. After so many years as an elite closer, he could take an affordable one-year deal for a shot at pitching the ninth inning for a new team. The Reds could be a match if Aroldis Chapman moves to the rotation. Overall I don't see too many teams with big bucks for a closer.
45. Jonathan Broxton – Rangers. Unlike last offseason, the 28-year-old Broxton is coming off a healthy season and looking for a multiyear deal. He had an interesting 2012, with the lowest strikeout rate of his career but also the best control and an increased groundball rate. A closer job would be best, and that might be possible with a return to the Reds. Otherwise a team like the Rangers could sign him for a setup role with games finished incentives.
46. Scott Baker – Twins. The Twins need to acquire at least two starters, and there's mutual interest to keep Baker even after his option was declined. The 31-year-old had Tommy John surgery in April, but is a useful mid-rotation guy when healthy.
47. Sean Burnett – Cardinals. The Cardinals enter the offseason without many needs, though left-handed relief is one. Burnett and Jeremy Affeldt will be some of the hottest commodities; both will receive multiyear offers. At 30, Burnett has age on his side and is coming off a strong campaign in which he was effective against lefties and righties.
48. Jeremy Guthrie – Pirates. Guthrie rescued his free agency by finishing strong with the Royals after an awful stint in Colorado. But, as MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith suggested, he still might be limited to one-year offers. Teams like the Pirates, Cubs, Twins, and Padres will be looking for at least one innings guy.
49. Eric Chavez – Yankees. Chavez, 35 in December, was the perfect A-Rod backup/occasional DH for the Yankees this year. The role allowed him to stay healthy and effective for the first time in years, so his stock will be up in free agency.
50. Jeremy Affeldt – Giants. The Giants may not have the payroll space to keep the band entirely together, if Affeldt is now a $6-7MM a year reliever. The 33-year-old posted another strong season, including postseason dominance, and you have to think the Giants will at least make a competitive offer. Other potential suitors include the Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Phillies, Nationals, and Brewers.
So the White Sox sign nobody this offseason… interesting
This is where I make my usual point that there are solid players outside of the top 50, and also…trades. Plus, the Sox did already make a big move on one of the better SPs out there.
No outfielder for the Tigers? No way that happens. They aren’t going into the season with Quintin Berry/Avisail Garcia/Andy Dirks as their LF/RF combo.
There will be an OF signing/trade. Hunter makes a lot of sense. His son just committed to Notre Dame, otherwise he doesn’t leave the west coast.
Hunter makes a ton of sense on a short deal…
Initial wonderment, too, but Tigers could just as easily trade for one instead of acquire this offseason.
Not quite “just as easily”. You need to find a match and pay the price in terms of talent to get a player already under contract. The trade route is always there, but it’s not as cut and dried as signing a free agent. Several of the outfield candidates will be over paid, as is the nature of the baseball business. Players are paid below market value for the early years of “club control”, then make up for it if they make good later on.
I agree. Dirks likely holds down one corner OF spot, at least against RHP, and they’ll go outside the organization to add a second OF. If they’re able to keep Sanchez, they could trade Porcello or Smyly in a package for another OF. Among the free agents, I see more of a speedy, defensively strong corner guy to bat second rather than another power bat.
Think Pagan, Upton, or Victorino, rather than Hamilton, Hunter, or Swisher, IMO.
You think the Cubs make a DeJesus-for-Smyly deal?
Sure, but the Tigers wouldn’t. Smyly has much more value and is more difficult to replace.
As a Braves fan, no thanks on Victorino… I think they trade for a CF. I’m surprised Swisher, Ross, Hunter were not mentioned for LF..
Agree. I just don’t think Victorino will be a Brave.
I think he will…and I like it. If Bourn is priced out of our range, then so will BJ Upton. Pagan will go back to SF with open arms (and $10M per). Hamilton will definitely be too expensive and he’s not our CF of the future. We have some money to play with, but we still need to address either 3B/LF. Victorino wants to start, is from the NL East, is a competitor, and could be had for less in years/money than the others, while provide us enough time and finances to find our CF of the future. He could also be a solid glove and leadoff hitter, providing speed on the basepaths.
Frankly, I like it. I hated playing against the guy when he was in PHI and based on the scouting reports of all of our CFs coming up through the ranks, I think Victorino and a 3-year deal could work out for both sides.
BOS will overpay Ross and he’s already spurned us (ATL) once in his career. I like Hunter. Could be one of those deals to be had, possibly. Hunter is one of those rare incredible baseball ambassadors and he could lead the young Braves while doing something great in the community and providing good offense/defense. Victorino and Hunter would be 2 older choices, but could be a good OF.
Swisher will be too expensive and frankly, I don’t think he’d be an upgrade, especially for his money. I think he’ll get $85 million+, and not from ATL.
Keppinger isnt going anywhere, he wants to stay a Ray and is willing to play 1st base.
If he wants to make money he will be gone, some team will probably offer him a starting gig.
I’d far rather LAD trade for Shields than sign Lohse.
agreed yet trading with the rays you never really win. Will have to give up a lot of good prospects to get sheilds in the rotation come spring training
I’d hope Pederson + Reed gets it done, but I have my doubts.
Gotta think the bidding starts with Zach Lee and I hope Colletti walks away at that point. I just hope that Lohse is not Plan B. Would rather see us lose the draft pick for signing Kuroda instead of signing Lohse. I would not put it past Colletti to make another run at Dempster, too.
Shields has turned himself into a solid #2/#3. he had 2 bad looking seasons in 2009/2010 but his xFIP was fine both years. I think fairly to acquire him it deserves good prospects. Dodgers won’t acquire him for just a few scraps. To get quality you need to pay.
I think over the last two years Shields has qualified himself as a very good #2.
Gordon and lee for sheilds tb should offer that
and a million dollars just CUZ
I don’t understand the Chapman move to the rotation. He broke down in relief stints this year and required a rest.
You just answered your own question. Pitching once every 5 days vs. 2-3 days in a row could be better for his style of pitching. Take 4-5 mph off his fastball and he still has upper tier velocity
As a closer, Chapman has 60 – 70 IP max.
As a starter, Chapman is expected to go 200 IP
Even after reducing his velocity he still won’t have the endurance.
He used to be a starter on the Cuban national team. There’s no reason to believe he couldn’t start for the Reds.
I think if he can start they should start him it would preserve his arm
Has nothing to do with number of innings pitched. Starting and relieving puts two different kinds of stress on a pitcher. As a starter he has 4 days to recover before his next start where as a reliever he could be forced to pitch 3 days in a row with no rest while pitching at max effort.
Lol, so I guess White Sox aren’t getting anyone this year.
Just not the top 50 free agents
when do the white sox really sign top free agents? most of their squads year to year are made up of trades, waiver claims, international free agents. adam dunn 2 years ago but none others really come to mind. jermaine dye, jessie craine, aj?
Youk and AJ are still options for the Sox…Napoli and Keppinger would be matches but will probably be overpaid.
They’ll have to pick up someone at Third, that is for sure!
I could see them kicking the tires on Russell Martin. Martin won’t bust anyone’s budget.
They already resigned Peavy (before the ranking list came out)…he would have been a top 10 free agent in my opinion.
no Iwakuma ?
it’s called an extension
I wouldn’t be surprised with Haren, Marcum, Adams, Hunter, and Valverde all considered by San Diego.
I know these are just predictions but come on. You don’t think the Mariners will spend money on a single one of the top 50 free agents this winter? with almost 35 million dollars in team salary space to match last year?
Personally, I was thinking they’d finally go after a bat. I don’t know if Swisher would be a match, but I could see them (over)paying him for a bat like his. Not sure if I’ve heard that anywhere else though.
Yeah I actually could see Swisher signing with the Mariners.
I hope they go after Laroche. I would rather have a solid 1b th wait for a guy who still has potential but in all likelihood a bust below average 1b
I think Smoak could get it done, his defense is there. He just needs to adjust his swing and patience. No doubt he has power and we need that. He did hit 19 HR last year which isn’t bad, but he needs to atleast be upwards of 25+ HRs with .250+ BA.
Lol, batting average. Here’s your real devil: Justin Smoak’s 2012 OBP:.290, SLG: .364. Who gives a crap about his BA if he can’t take a walk or an extra base?
I think the Tigers take a look at Tori Hunter. By the way in the game you have Jhonny Peralta (Club optioned picked up by the Tigers) listed at 38 instead of Joel Peralta.
My primitive mind can’t imagine the Red Sox inviting NEW controversy by bringing in Melky. That is just not where they will go with their PR in a fragile state already. I think that is kind of obvious.
There will always be controversy in NY and Boston about one thing or another for how much media scrutiny there is. Like bringing Melky in will make a difference…
there will always be PR drama in boston. making moves to impress the media is how you end up with john lackey and carl crawford.
signing melky is a smart baseball move for any team that needs an outfielder and fenway is a good park for melky to rebuild his value.
They brought in ‘Mr. Accountability’ John Farrell. So why wouldn’t they bring in Melky too?
Your assessment of the Yankees acquiring any high priced outfielder makes no sense when they got Brett Gardiner positioned to start in left field next year and them wanting to lower their payroll from that insane 190 million.
They are peeling quite a bit of salary this season and next, and they will need to fill RF.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they resigned Raul Ibanez and slapped him into left field like they did for most of 2012. Gardiner is assured a starting spot in the outfield and with Granderson back that leaves no room for anything other than bench players.
No way Hamilton returns to Texas in my opinion. List aint half bad this year!
If the Rangers make the moves above, I’ll consider it a very disappointing off-season. All they’d have done is become older, slower and more expensive.
What do you want them to do?
They have a pretty good farm system, They will either bring a few guys up, or make a few trades.
Well obviously Profar will see the Majors again this year. I can see anyone else in the farm being dealt.
If we lose Hamilton, the ideal situation would be to sign Greinke and trade for one of David Price or Justin Upton…keep in mind I said ideal.
Yanks are more than likely going to go after Ichiro. That is a very strong outfield. Ichiro could prioritize playing for a contender over making money by coming back to the Yankees
If the Miami Marlins are willing to pay money for an outfielder than Nick Swisher would be the perfect fit for them. He’s the only player with a personality colorful enough to match Miami’s uniform scheme and ballpark. He brings 110% energy day in and day out.
And he won’t be managed by Ozzie! Lord knows how well that turned out.
Had to do a double take on predicting Napoli to Houston since we already have Castro, then I remembered we need a DH now… This will take some getting used to.
Keep in mind that Napoli bats 0.400 against the Angels. Even if the Rangers don’t want to keep him, the ‘stros might be able to get Nolan Ryan to chip in some cash to spoil the Halo situation for them.
I think the Rangers keep him, because they are done with Hamilton. He’s too expensive for the ‘Stros anyway; I think (sorry Houston) Delmon Young is a better fit for a rebuilding team that just needs a DH on the cheap.
I’d love it if the Astros signed Napoli, but I seriously doubt that will happen. Delmon Young or Luke Scott are more likely.
Napoli isn’t much of a catcher anyways. Usually doesn’t catch more than 50-60 games a year. He is more of a 1B.
If he can catch 50-60 games that would make him a good backup for Castro. In addition to being their primary DH and sometimes 1B. Castro has yet to catch 100 games in a season.
Definetely, it’s just not right to view him ever as your primary catcher, and he is too expensive to not have playing everyday.
Personally, if Ortiz doesn’t re-sign with BOS (which it looks like he’s hitting the open market according to reports), I see BOS signing Napoli who could be a decent bat to replace Ortiz while still filling the DH position and platoon at C/1B, if necessary.
“The problem with the Bourn-plus-LaRoche scenario for the Nats is that it requires a trade of Mike Morse.”
Should I assume the problem in that scenario is the Nats getting lowballed on trade offers for Morse because they’d have no place to play him? Because with Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Desmond, Espinosa, and Werth (hopefully) they aren’t exactly lacking for power.
send Morse to Baltimore, please
I’d take Morse in a heartbeat on the Mets……
Really, Jeremy Affeldt at number 50 with 3 of his last 4 years being so good? At least put him ahead of Chavez…
Agreed. Unfortunately he’s probably wrong about the Giants re-signing him too. Affeldt’s going to chase the $$$
He made it known during the parade today that he was aware of the League deal. In response, he said that if this was the end of his time in SF, then he’d cherish the memories. He got how two rings but now its time to get paid.
Thanks, Jeremy. Wouldn’t be here without you.
Those comments don’t make the re-signing any less likely, for me. He’d have a pretty bad agent or internet connection to not notice the League deal.
I definitely hope you are right. I feel like until the Giants know what they have in Wilson moving forward though, It may be hard to justify giving a potential 7th inning guy a 3/$21 deal no matter how solid he is.
and chavez was very good in 300 PA (so both players play part time)
Rankings are subjective. All comes down to who views a player as more valuable. Same as prospect list rankings, what is important though that someone at 30 is higher value than someone at 40. deciding between 50 and 49 really isn’t all that important, just the general ranking that Affeldt is near the bottom of the top 50.
There’s a lot of guys I’d have in the top 50 that aren’t listed. The list in general is short on relievers who will be in high demand by a lot of teams.
No way Swisher becomes an Oriole. He’s the one Yankee that is the least likely. There’s a lot of personal bad blood with him particularly. And, he’s just too openly confident which appears very disrespectful and cocky, particularly in incidents with the Os. Not Showalter’s style of player. He’s perfect as a Yankee.
This has to be one of the most outrageous statements I have ever read on here.
What Bad Blood? Why? Is it because Swisher has hit a lot of game winning home runs against the O’s. Swisher also loves to hit in Camden Yards. Sure he is a bit cocky, some would even say it’s swagger. As far as I am concerned the Orioles need someone like him!
I totally disagree with what you typed. I probable have watched as many O’s games as you have these past couple of seasons, and I have no reason to dislike Swish and yet you do.
As for Showalter’s style of player, Show hasn’t re-upped yet to be here after the 2013 so who knows what his future holds.
The Orioles need to sign players that will help them win and it’s my opinion that Swisher can do that!
Exactly. I haven’t seen a single O’s fan thrilled by the idea. He’s that guy you just can’t root for after disliking him on another team. The kind of player “anonymous sources in the clubhouse” complain about.
Swisher has the kind of big personality that obviously isn’t going to work with everyone who has to deal with him, but for the most part, comes across well with the team he’s playing FOR. Fans of teams he’s playing against might understandably see it differently. Once he’s getting big hits and acting happy about it while wearing your team’s colors, he may not seem so bad.
That said, there’s very little chance he remains a Yankee and I for some reason see him ending up in Texas, LA or Philly.
I’m going out on a limb and saying Hamilton signs with BAL. Don’t exactly know about the BAL finances, but this could be what P.A. has been talking about for years after seeing what Showalter can do with a decent squad. This would be the kind of signing that could reshape a vastly-changing AL East.
I agree he’s not coming here but for two different reasons:
He isn’t a great fielder and the Os won’t spend that type of money on Nick Swisher.
My question is..where is the Dodgers finding all this money to be rumored to sign Greinke let alone any other top free agent?
Their ownership group controls $235 billion in assets.
Talk about unfair….
we had McCourt for 7 years. We deserve something
they will be starting a new TV deal soon probably worth at least 3.0 to 4.5 billion
gee, I don’t know man. good question.
I would be pleased with those moves for the Red Sox. Not a bad list, but I don’t really like Liriano. He flashes some great stuff and then falls back to the same old inconsistent pitcher.
at this point, Liriano is really only a backend starter. He was never really the same, sad since his rookie campaign was brilliant.
Problem with the Orioles signing Saunders is that they already have 8-10 starting pitching types. Also with Jones and Markakis locked up they have 3-4 left fielders. I really hope they package something together for a #1 ace pitcher. They have enough 3-5 type pitchers…..which is what Saunders is.
Nice to see the Cubs going all out in ’13.
I’m always sad to see the lack of Braves love on these lists but then I remember how good of a trader Frank Wren is. The trades don’t always work out in the long run but at the time of the trade he tends to make teams look just flat unintelligent. I would love to have Victorino. His speed and fielding ability would work out nicely in the cavern the Braves call a ballpark. BJ Upton wouldn’t be half bad either and I’d love to have Bourn back.
I look forward to winning this again 🙂
The chance that Hamilton resigns with the Rangers is close to zero. As a Rangers fan, I really get the feeling that the team is fed up with all of the crap that comes along with having Hamilton on the team: the nagging injuries, the relapses, the terrible plate discipline, the lack of intensity.
Don’t get me wrong. Hamilton is an immensely talented player that any team would be happy to have. But at the price it will take to resign him, I really think that the Rangers are ready to move on, and I have to say I’m ready to move on too. Thanks for the memories, Josh.
I don’t see him re-signing with TEX, unless he comes crawling back to them after getting spurned by other teams — and that won’t happen with a bat like his. I’m taking the risky road and saying that BAL will sign him.
I think the White Sox are going to seriously overpay Youk if they have to. Otherwise, there is absolutely no one to play third base. Brent Morel? He gone.
if they were going to overpay on him, wouldn’t they have just picked up his option?
No, I think they can get under $13M but I still think $8-9M AAV is overpaying.
You will be in for a rude awakening then. I think he should be able to get that much, he was still decent last year, and 3B market is very barren. You can go with the fragile chavez, youk, or Keppinger.
You got O-Dog, what more could you ask for
hmm, a broomstick with a sox cap on might be just as effective
Hamilton to the Rays! Perfect fit, hit in front of Longo (lefty, righty) doesn’t have to fight the Texas sun in the Trop. The Rays are a star hitter away from winning the AL East every year. I love the Ichiro option to the Rays as well!
Well considering they may possibly move Shields/Price for monetary reasons I just can’t see that happening.
That was pretty funny. Any other good jokes?
TB stuck with Hamilton through all of his early-career personal mess, and didn’t reap any of the benefits. If Hamilton has a relapse, that could financially cripple the squad, considering the burden they presumably would have to take on the make a nice offer, even if Hamilton did want to waive some.
Kudos for saying Melky would sign with the Red Sox- I think this is a deal made in heaven since the Sox need protection if Kalish fails or they fall out of contention and decide to trade Ellsbury. I could also see them in the market for Napoli, if this is the year of the pillow contract for Boston as they sort things out, though I think they may be strong suitors for Laroche . Stephen Drew, though? Don’t think they’re taking a chance on J.D.’s malingering Rounger sibling! I’d kind of like to see them go after Brandon McCarthy as a young risk/reward candidate, though I could also see them going for Haren.
Melky Cabrera – considering the PR nightmare of the last season – would probably be the last move that team would make at this point. I’ll eat my shirt if he ends up there. I’d probably cancel my seasons tickets, too.
The shot at the Dodgers under Hamilton was pretty funny, and I really hope the prediction for Blanton is wrong. Beggars can be choosers.
Not happy Cardinals aren’t projected to do much.
Don’t need much.
What do you want them to do? Basically all everyday jobs are anchored down and the rotation has the “problem” of choosing between about 6 different worthy candidates for one or two spots. A bench bat could be possible, but with Adams expected to make a much longer appearance next year and M-Carp’s promising year, there’s no real dire want there. The pen is the only blatantly obvious need. I think Scrabble gets it together this (next) year, but one lefty isn’t going to cut it.
LOL mariners just don’t sign anybody this offseason
Knowing Theo Epstein, I’m pretty sure damn sure he’s going to take a shot at Hamilton or Grienke. If he puts too much, he might just win.
Don’t see either. Cubs are still in a pretty big mess and it will be a few more years before the farm system is rebuilt. Cubs aren’t in the position to compete as is, and there is no point spending, since when you sign a free agent it’s best years are at the front end of the deal, and by time player declining that is when they would start competing.
I’m completely sure that one of the top 10 free agents in this list will land with the Cubs. Or at least trading for a big name or something. But I doubt that Cubs will stay silent this offseason.
Anibal Sanchez also looks like another kind of guy with room for improvement, yet good enough to win 15 games a year. Look for the Orioles to sign him.
So the Red Sox are projected to only resign their own guys or reclamation projects on short-term deals. I’m… uh, kind of okay with that. Spending recklessly helped get them in the hole they’re in at this stage of the game, and they’ve got the young talent in the system to push forward. They just need to patch a bunch of holes until the long-term fixes are ready to come to Fenway, and I don’t see anyone on this list who’ll block their best prospects. The key is to keep them on short contracts at good value.
If this list turns out to be true……..that means the Cubs will only get Shaun Marcum. Yikes.
i could see dodgers getting back kuroda instead of lohse. i would really want is dodgers upgrading their prospects……. they have what? zach lee that is it. i wont trust van slyke or federowicz but give some opportunity in majors, but that would be it.
The Mets really could use guys like Peralta and Burnett for the bullpen. Hell I think all bullpen arms the Mets should be looking at period to be honest as they need a lefty and righty for sure.
@Basemonkey, in case my one comment doesn’t get released. I just want to make it clear that I totally disagree with what you typed about Nick Swisher!
Astros Mike Napoli C Delmon Young DH
Oh, that’s right… I can’t play the game since I won’t do Facebook. Silly me.
Keppinger is a perfect fit with Royals at 2nd
Nats keep Laroche then sign Bourn.. end up trading Morse to the Red Soxs
I have a feeling Hamilton will go somewhere else my pick is the Brewers
Well, you’ve missed one so far – No way the Flyin’ Hawaiian will have a tomahawk on his chest.
I don’t think Doug Melvin is dumb enough to focus on 2 “buy high” guys in their mid 30’s. Dempster had 4 good months with no pressure in Chicago, then failed in Texas. Brewers have been down that road with Suppan and Wolf, but then they didn’t have the arms in their system that they do now. Brewers would like a one or two year guy. Haren makes sense for them. Another guy who does is Liriano. Melvin should also be wary of Grilli coming off a career year at 35, especially considering the failures of his pen last year. I think he’ll grab a “safer” rubber arm type like a Rauch, and a quality lefty like Burnett or Howell and fill the rest of the pen with young guys.
I see the red sox signing sanchez to a 5 or even 6 year deal to be honest and Im ok with that. A 5 year deal would give them his 29-33 year old seasons and he doesn’t require compesnation. They need solid pitching and have the money. Plus he was once a red sox prospect. can’t be an ace but a solid number 2 or 3 at 200 IP of ERA below 4.
Sorry, the nats aren’t going to sign *BOTH* LaRoche and Bourne. That leaves them with four starting OFs or two starting 1Bs. If they sign LaRoche, Morse is staying in the OF (along with Harper/Werth). If they sign Bourne, then Morse has to move to 1B. And Morse’s trade value is limited because he’s only signed through 2013.
It’s fine to consider individual FAs in a vacuum, but your predictions need to work together in a valid way to be able to come true.
This winter I’ve moved more toward vaccum than trying to paint one big picture where everything can happen. I’ve always leaned toward one big picture, and I think it steers you in a bad direction because one flimsy prediction leads to more. I think the text of the post noted the Morse situation fairly clearly, ditto the Yankees with two closers.
You really see the Yankees spending more than $14 Million on Soriano?
I can’t see the Nationals going after Bourn – Harper’s turning out to be pretty strong in center field, and Bourn’s profile of a speedy singles-hitter just isn’t the kind of player Johnson and Rizzo seem to favor. They tend to favor power hitters over anything else, and they’ve got a good outfield for that now, with bench players that can both hit for power (Moore) and singles+speed (Bernadina and Lombardozzi).
Really, assuming they can resign LaRoche (which I hope they can), the only move I’d expect them to make is for a starting pitcher and maybe a few bullpen guys.
These predictions are terrible
Do a better job. Right here right now.
Ichrio will stay with the Yankees. It benefits both sides both with Ichrio’s desire to play with players his own age, and the Yankees expanding their global market within Japan.
What a terrible FA class. I could see Hamilton on the Phillies, rather Upton.
This top 50 list came out after Jake Peavy was resigned by the Chi-Sox…where would he had been ranked had he not signed yet? Top 10?
I see Nats signing Bourn and resign LaRoche then trading Morse (a lot of teams would gave heavy interest = big return)
does anyone else see the Angels as possible contenders for Chavez?
The Reds would be much more interested in Broxton and Madson than Valverde. There’s a bias here – you have the Tigers picking up a quality closer who was on the Reds roster in 2012, and the Reds settling for their diminished castoff.
Joe Blanton – Twins ace. Whee!!! Hope the season ticket phones are well-manned.
personaly i disagree with torii signing with anyone but the angels. not many players like him can give the experience and expertise in the OF to the Halos’ young star trout and bourjos. not only that he had a fantastic year after being put in the 2 spot, and he also stated earlier in the year he would accept less money to stay put
Can’t wait to see my name at the top of the Predictions Leaderboard.
Why would the Nationals sign Bourn? They will have Werth, Harper, and Morse in the outfield. I would say move Morse to first, but according to this, they will re-sign Laroche.
The Nationals would sign Bourn because they need a leadoff hitter. They’ve given Bernadina and others a chance to get it done, but no one has taken on the job. Signing Bourn allows you to drop Werth into Morse’s spot and trade Morse. Morse isn’t good enough defensively if your ultimate goal is to make a run at the Series. I think an OF of Harper/Bourn/Werth with LaRoche at 1st and one more back end starter would be a pretty incredible team.
Sean Burnett will set the cards bullpen up very nicely. Now if we could only work a trade for Elvis Andrus, this team will be set.
I honestly think the Brewers make a run at mike adams due to a shake bullpen along with dempster with they’re sub-par rotation
its fun to read, but you guys only predicted 7 correct last year, and 5 of them returned to the team they previously played for
If Ichiro ended up on the Rays I could die a happy man. Getting to see my favorite baseball player on a semi-daily basis would be amazing.
Weakest free agent pool in decades. I see no reason to sign any of these guys to a big contract.
Playoffs sure make a difference last year the top free agents wouldnt even come to Baltimore.
Ichiro to the Rays? No way!
giants don’t want pagan
I guess it doesn’t matter how many times the NL wins the all-star game or the world series. The “real test” of pitching is surviving the gauntlet of AL lineups like Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Cleveland and Seattle. Baseball journalism ftw.
Mike Napoli is an amazing hitter. He can hit mostly everywhere. He loves to hit in Texas but I think Ron Washington has different things to focus on. The Astros sucked this year so they definitly need players so I think there is a possibility that Napoli will go to the Astros.
Rangers have to sign Grienke. They are the clear World Series favorites if they do so. Their management is smart and knows it takes pitching , pitching , pitching. Trade harrison, holland, and olt for David Price as well. Grienke, Price, Darvish, as your top 3 starters I like our chances!!!
to get price the rangers would have to give up a lot more. id imagine the rays would want profar
Rangers should do away with Hamilton & free up some $ for Greinke and Michael Bourn. Cut ties with Napoli and pick up a steal in AJ Pierzynski. Dude can hit for avg and has a nice pop in the bat. Broxton would be a solid CP. I would also try to make a deal with the Giants by trying to acquire Tim Lincecum or Madison Bumgarner for $ and Holland or Ogando
Can someone tell me why Joe Blanton is way ahead of guys like Madson, Rivera, and McCarthy? I would take any one of those guys over joe and I would have to pay more. Blanton can barely pitch at an MLB level, yet he’s more valuable then the greatest closer of all time.
Valverde to the Reds? No thanks!
Tigers winning only one of the top 50 FA? Not going to happen. They will get 2-4 because if Illich’s desire to win… NOW.
I’m not sure where Adam LaRoche will sign, but I don’t see him getting a fat contract, or even 3 years…not at 10 MIL per year. The Nationals could make a lower offer. Or, just not sign him and keep Mike Morse at 1st base full time and, if they sign Bourn, so be it.
Napoli to the Astros makes no sense to me whatsoever given the direction that they are going in. Can def see him on the RedSox or even the O’s.
They left Jacoby Ellsbury off this list. His gonna be looking for $$$.
Would have been more accurate just to write every player to the Red Sox