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Archives for August 2012

Poll: How Will The Orioles Finish?

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The Orioles were one of MLB’s model franchises for decades, but teams of the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s have given way to clubs that have been unable to reach the .500 mark for the last 14 years. While no organization rivals the Pirates’ streak of losing seasons, the Orioles haven’t had a winning record or made the playoffs since 1997.

Everything could change this year if the Orioles continue to play well for the next two months. They're currently 60-51, tied with the Tigers and Athletics for the lead in the American League Wild Card race, and 1.5 games ahead of the Rays and Angels. With five teams playing for two spots, competition for the Wild Card spots will no doubt be heated.

The Orioles have allowed 47 more runs than they've scored, which suggests their .541 winning percentage is unsustainable. But their 60 wins aren’t going to disappear, so they’re very much in contention. Manny Machado is joining the team, and Dylan Bundy might be next. As Dave Cameron explained this morning, there’s a definite chance Baltimore could win enough to reach the postseason. Even if it’s not necessarily likely, the playoffs are within reach.

For the Orioles to end up below .500, they’d have to finish 20-31 or worse. To win 90 games, they’d have to finish 30-21 or better. There are still 51 games to go…

Regular MLBTR Features

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If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

  • MLBTR Chats - Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
  • Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
  • Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
  • MLBTR Originals - We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Astros Designate Brian Bixler For Assignment

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The Astros announced that they designated infielder Brian Bixler for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for Tyler Greene, who was claimed off of waivers from St. Louis.

Bixler has appeared in 36 games for the Astros this year, playing second, third, shortstop and both corner outfield positions. He posted a .193/.253/.330 line in 96 plate appearances at the MLB level and has a .267/.349/.366 batting line in 229 plate appearances at Triple-A. The Astros claimed the 2004 second round pick off of waivers from Washington last November.

Astros Acquire Tyler Greene

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The Astros have acquired utility player Tyler Greene from the Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash considerations, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). The Cardinals selected Greene in the first round of the 2005 draft, back when current Astros GM Jeff Luhnow was overseeing the amateur draft for St. Louis.

Greene has appeared in 77 games for St. Louis this year, playing second, shortstop and both corner outfield positions. The 28-year-old has a .218 /.272 /.358 batting line in 197 plate appearances so far in 2012. He won't be arbitration eligible before the end of the 2013 season.

The teams completed the trade this morning, after the Astros claimed Greene on waivers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on Twitter).

Non-Tender Candidate: Jair Jurrjens

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Jair Jurrjens entered the 2012 season with a career ERA of 3.40 and a sparkling 50-33 record. He had just obtained a substantial raise through the arbitration process and seemed to have established himself as an All-Star caliber pitcher.

Jair Jurrjens - Braves (PW)

But he has pitched ineffectively this season, struggling as a Braves starter and getting a demotion to the minor leagues. He’s now on the disabled list and he’s not getting any more affordable, so the Braves will have to consider removing him from their roster by the December deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration eligible players.

The Tigers signed Jurrjens back in 2003 and traded him and Gorkys Hernandez to Atlanta four years later for Edgar Renteria. In 2008, his first season with the Braves, Jurrjens started 31 games and finished third in the Rookie of the Year balloting. By 2009 he had reached the 200-inning plateau and posted a 2.60 ERA with twice as many strikeouts as walks. And in 2011, he made the National League All-Star team, posting a 2.96 ERA with 5.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 42% ground ball rate in 152 innings.

Yet the 2012 season has consisted of one disappointment after another. Jurrjens struggled through four April starts and, after losing his rotation spot and being demoted to the minor leagues, posted a 5.18 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in ten forgettable starts at Triple-A. The Braves recalled him in late June, and he made seven more appearances before hitting the disabled list with a strained right groin. In total, he has a 6.89 ERA with about as many strikeouts (19) as walks (18) in 48 1/3 innings at the MLB level this year.

Given that stat line, it’s not surprising to learn that Jurrjens’ stuff appears to be in decline. His average fastball velocity has declined for the fifth consecutive season and now sits at 88.6 mph, according to FanGraphs. And among pitchers with at least 40 innings this year, only Burke Badenhop, Bartolo Colon and Aaron Cook generate a lower percentage of swings and misses than Jurrjens, who induces swinging strikes on fewer than five pitches for every 100 thrown (4.6%). Simply put, hitters aren’t have any trouble connecting with his offerings. 

Jurrjens earns $5.5MM this year and is on track to go to arbitration for the third and final time this coming offseason. He projects to earn $5.9MM in 2013 if he continues pitching at the MLB level and the Braves tender him a contract, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates. That would be a major commitment for a player who might not even make the Braves’ 2013 rotation, so the possibility of a non-tender looms despite his past contributions.

Though Jurrjens seems headed for free agency this winter, another option exists. There could be a team looking for pitching — the Royals, Rockies, Astros or Twins, perhaps — that would be willing to take a chance on a 26-year-old one year removed from an All-Star season. The Braves, who were said to be willing to listen on Jurrjens last offseason, wouldn’t get much in return this time. But it’s a possibility general manager Frank Wren will surely consider if it would allow the Braves to obtain something of value in return.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Orioles Notes: Machado, Bundy

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The Orioles announced last night that they will promote 20-year-old infield prospect Manny Machado to the Major Leagues. It seems likely that Machado, the third overall pick of the 2010 draft, will play third base in Baltimore. Here are the latest Orioles-related links…

  • One rival general manager questioned the Orioles' decision to promote Machado, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. "Just because he's better than Wilson Betemit doesn't mean it's the right move for the kid,'' the GM said. The GM acknowledged that Machado is “really good, one of the top ten prospects in MLB.”
  • Orioles manager Buck Showalter recently made it sound like Machado was headed to the Instructional League this September, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes (Twitterlinks). 
  • Sherman suggests the Orioles could call on top prospect Dylan Bundy this September and use him out of the bullpen. Bundy, 19, was just promoted to Double-A after posting a 1.92 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 84 1/3 innings at Class A.
  • ESPN.com’s Buster Olney points out that the Orioles have had to juggle their roster all season long. Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told Olney the Orioles have been “piecing it together” and relying on manager Buck Showalter to get the most out of the roster. Showalter said it helps that the Orioles are a professional, blue collar group “They really like each other. And they like to win," he said.

Extension Candidate: Buster Posey

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The first order of business for Buster Posey this season was to prove himself healthy following a 2011 campaign cut short after 45 games due to a fractured fibula.  Not only did that home plate collision with Scott Cousins cost Posey most of a season, it also may have cost him some money in the short-term, as the Giants may have wished to quickly sign him to a multiyear extension. Uspw_6440026

Ironically, Posey's injury may make him a wealthier man in the long-term.  Posey had a .756 OPS when he was injured in 2011, so supposing he'd stayed healthy and stayed at that more modest number (call it a sophomore slump), the Giants might have been able to sign Posey to an extension akin to Carlos Santana's five-year, $21MM deal with the Indians. 

That scenario will remain a hypothetical, however, as Posey has returned from injury with an MVP-caliber .328/.394/.542 batting line and 18 home runs over 409 plate appearances entering Wednesday's action. This performance has only strengthened Posey's case as the best-hitting catcher in the game and now he'll have an even higher price tag should the Giants look to lock him up.

Posey will reach arbitration for the first time this winter and he'll have four arb years in total as a Super Two player, leaving him under Giants control through the 2016 season.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith opined that Posey would likely be in line for a salary between $2-$3MM for 2013, and at Posey's current rate of production, I'd guess that $3MM will be at the low end of his 2013 salary.

The Super Two status makes Posey a unique case, as while several notable catchers (such as Santana, Brian McCann, Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer) have signed extensions that covered their arb years, none of these players had that fourth year of arbitration.  Also, none of these players signed their extensions with between 2-3 years of MLB service, as Posey will have at the conclusion of this season.

Perhaps the closest comparison is Mauer, who signed a four-year, $33MM extension with the Twins before the 2007 season that covered his three arb years and his first free agent season.  Mauer had a career line of .321/.399/.471 with 28 homers through his first 1284 plate appearances before signing his extension; Posey currently has a a 307/.369/.492 career line and 40 homers through 1054 plate appearances and should make up that gap in PAs by the end of the season.

Mauer's deal broke down as $20.5MM for his three arb years and $12.5MM for his first year of free agency.  If we use $3MM as the baseline for Posey's 2013 salary, I could see the Giants offering something like a five-year deal worth around $47MM for their star catcher.  The salaries would break down as $3MM in 2013, $6MM in 2014, $9MM in 2015 and $12MM for 2016 to cover the arb years, and Posey would then earn $17MM for the 2017 season, which would've been his first free agent year.  Posey will turn 31 years old in March 2018, so he'd still be young enough to net another big contract in free agency.

There's also the possibility that Posey and agent Jeff Berry would look to go even longer-term in San Francisco.  A seven-year deal — worth $17MM and $20MM, respectively, for 2018 and 2019 — would bring the total value to $84MM.  That's a big contract for any player and especially for a catcher, though the Giants have already looked to keep Posey fresh with occasional starts at first base.  If Posey can keep up his current .935 OPS, that's certainly enough pop to play at first base (particularly at AT&T Park) and be worthy of that type of major financial commitment.     

A seven-year, $84MM contract would be the third-most expensive deal ever given to a catcher, behind Mauer's eight-year, $184MM extension with the Twins and Mike Piazza's seven-year, $91MM deal with the Mets from 1999-2005.

Since the Giants do have four years of control to work with, it's possible they just settle on a one-year deal with Posey this offseason and save extension talks for a later date.  Still, the Giants face some interesting payroll issues — Melky Cabrera will be a free agent and the newly-acquired Hunter Pence is going into his last arb year (the Giants claim to be able to extend both), not to mention potential tough decisions about franchise icons like Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson.  Posey is a player the Giants obviously want in the fold for years to come so they might look to get some cost certainty on his future salaries before looking at other business.

Photo courtesy of Kelley L. Cox/US Presswire

Orioles To Call Up Manny Machado

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The Orioles will select the contract of top prospect Manny Machado before Thursday night's game against the Royals, according to a team press release.  Machado, the third overall pick of the 2010 draft, is hitting .266/.350/.431 at Double-A Bowie this season.  The 20-year-old was regarded as the 11th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America's preseason rankings and moved up to the #9 slot in BA's midseason rankings.

Though Machado was drafted as a shortstop and has played all but five pro games at the position (three games at DH, two games at third base), it appears as though the O's will use Machado at third.  Though J.J. Hardy has struggled to a .658 OPS this season, he has a firmer grip on the shortstop position than the defensively-challenged Wilson Betemit and Mark Reynolds have at the hot corner.  It's a big surprise to see Machado called up this early, though with the Orioles in a pennant race, "if we can do something that makes us two inches better to have a chance to win the last 49 games, we’re going to do it," manager Buck Showalter tells MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli (Twitter link). 

The early call-up will put Machado in line to be arbitration-eligible after the 2015 season (though not Super Two-eligible) and able to hit free agency after the 2018 season at age 26, according to MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith.  These calculations are based on Machado remaining in the majors, which Nicholson-Smith calls "a big if."

Quick Hits: Oswalt, Bourn, Hendry, Bay Area

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The Indians snapped an 11-game losing streak today with a 6-2 victory over the Twins.  The 11-game skid matched a franchise record, set four times previously in Tribe history.  Avoiding a new futility record is of small consolation to the Indians, who were in wild card contention before their streak and now can only look ahead to 2013.

Here's the latest from around the majors….

  • The Red Sox scouted Roy Oswalt and expressed interest in him earlier this season but they never made an offer, the veteran right-hander tells Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  Oswalt also said that he didn't insist to pitch for a team close to his home in Mississippi, noting that he was "pretty close" to signing with the Dodgers before finally settling on a contract with the Rangers.
  • Michael Bourn "strikes out a lot and doesn't have a great on-base percentage.  He's going to be 30 years old, and guys his age do not get faster. I'd be careful," a scout tells Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  The Phillies have been rumored to be interested in signing Bourn as a free agent this winter, with the Nationals and Braves also in the mix for the center fielder.
  • Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry has embraced being a special-assignment scout for the Yankees, writes Daniel Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal.  Brian Cashman said that Hendry played key roles in the signing of first-round draft pick Ty Hensley and in the team's recent trade for Casey McGehee.
  • The dispute between the Athletics and the Giants over San Jose territorial rights "might be the most difficult decision in baseball history because of the circumstances," an MLB executive tells Yahoo Sports' Steve Henson.  The executive says there is some belief that the Giants could break protocol and sue the league if the A's are allowed to move.
  • Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres thinks the Padres made a good move in extending Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, though wonders if either player can "stay healthy in a heated pennant race."

Rangers, Hamilton To Wait For Offseason To Negotiate

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The Rangers and Josh Hamilton will hold off on contract negotiations until the end of the season, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Hamilton said last winter that he didn't want talks to extend into the season, but the two sides held light discussions in May, when Hamilton was in the midst of his early-season tear.  Both Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Hamilton's agent Michael Moye declined to comment on the state of negotiations.   

It was seen as a longshot that an agreement would be reached, with even Nolan Ryan saying that he expected Hamilton to test the free agent market.  Heyman reports that the Rangers have yet to make Hamilton a contract offer, which Heyman interprets as a possible sign that the team isn't willing to extend the kind of eight- or nine-year commitment that Hamilton reportedly wants.  The Rangers shy away from very long-term contracts in any case and "indications are that they won't buck that trend here" for Hamilton.

Signing any 31-year-old with a checkered injury history to a big multiyear deal would already be a risk, but that uncertainty is compounded by Hamilton's struggles with substance abuse.  Heyman hears from two rival general managers that Hamilton carries too much risk to get more than a five-year deal (worth $100MM-140MM) on the open market, though the GMs note that Hamilton just needs one particularly aggressive team to potentially offer him that longer contract.  One GM suggests the Dodgers could be in on Hamilton this winter as their new ownership is willing and eager to spend.

Hamilton looked to be on track for one of baseball's greatest seasons after he posted a .368/.420/.764 line with 21 homers in April and May, though he has struggled badly since, hitting just .209/.284/.383 since May 31.

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