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Possible Fits For A.J. Burnett

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1:40pm: The Pirates have spoken to the Yankees about Burnett, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, "though those conversations failed to progress and perhaps qualified only as due diligence."  Rosenthal says that Burnett hopes to stay with the Yankees, but notes that the Pirates are not on his no-trade list.

8:05am: Righty A.J. Burnett has provided innings for the Yankees over the last two years, 377 in the regular season to be exact.  His peripheral stats suggest a brighter future, but Burnett posted a 5.20 ERA over 2010-11.  How does the free agent market deal with starting pitchers who provide innings and good stuff but lack the hoped-for results?

The free agent market just valued Edwin Jackson at $11MM for one year, but his ERA over the last two years is a full run lower than Burnett's, and with 32 additional regular season innings.  He does seem to have Burnett's reputation of good stuff without the results to match, though Jackson is significantly younger.  Had Jackson set out to find the best two-year offer possible, perhaps he could have gotten $20MM.  A year ago, Carl Pavano signed for two years and $16.5MM, and he too was coming off a better two-year performance than Burnett.  Pavano, however, lacks the upside of Burnett or Jackson.  The bottom line is that as a free agent, I think Burnett might find $12MM if he were set on a two-year deal.

Word from Joel Sherman of the New York Post is that the Yankees are "quietly — but diligently — still working to trade" Burnett to create additonal payroll flexibility for both Eric Chavez and one of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, or Raul Ibanez.  GM Brian Cashman lacks leverage, as Burnett hasn't pitched well over the last two seasons and will be battling this spring to crack the Yankees' rotation.  So if Burnett's free agent value is around $12MM over two years, Cashman might have to let a team take him for $8-10MM over that span.  That could be the possible savings for the Yankees against the $33MM owed to the 35-year-old.

Possible fits for Burnett:

  • Pirates: The Pirates can't seem to convince free agent starters to take their money, and Burnett could reject them as well if they are one of ten teams covered in his limited no-trade clause.   Still, they'd represent a fresh start back in the easier league, and Burnett could be a big fish in a small pond.
  • White Sox: If the White Sox add Burnett, they'd have the rotation depth to trade Gavin Floyd for prospects without decimating their rotation.
  • Orioles: Their rotation has plenty of options, but without Jeremy Guthrie, the veteran role falls to Jason Hammel.  Burnett's wife is famously a Maryland resident, as we learned from past trade rumors and his free agency process.  Burnett could work for the Orioles, but only if they found some payroll flexibility, had the desire to add yet another rotation candidate, and Cashman was willing to trade within the division.
  • Athletics: When Bartolo Colon is your innings guy, a little more veteran depth wouldn't hurt.

Reds Designate Carlos Fisher For Assignment

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The Reds designated righty Carlos Fisher to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Ryan Ludwick, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.  Jeff Francis' minor league deal with the Reds was also finalized.

Fisher, 28, has compiled a 4.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings across stints with the Reds in each of the last three seasons.  Fisher, a native of Duarte, California, was drafted by the Reds in the 11th round in 2005.

Yankees Sign Russell Branyan

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The Yankees signed first baseman Russell Branyan to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post.  The move does not impact the team's pursuit of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Raul Ibanez, notes Martin, though it could affect their interest in Eric Chavez.  Branyan will make $750K plus incentives if he makes the big league roster, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Branyan, an ACES client, hit .197/.295/.370 in 146 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks and Angels last year.  The D'Backs released him in May.  The powerful left-handed hitter has 194 career home runs and a .485 slugging percentage.

Athletics Extend Beane Through 2019

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WEDNESDAY: The extensions will have option years, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

TUESDAY: Not much is certain when it comes to the future of the Athletics, but their leadership team will remain in place long-term. Owner Lew Wolff said today that GM Billy Beane and president Michael Crowley have agreed to extensions through the 2019 season, Jon Erlichman and Rob Gloster of Bloomberg News report. Beane told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.com that reports of a deal are a bit premature (Twitter link), but Wolff expects Beane and Crowley to sign within 30 days.

Beane became the team's GM after the 1997 season and Crowley became team president one year later. They face a problematic stadium situation in Oakland and the club may move to San Jose in the relatively near future. Both Beane and Crowley have ownership stakes in the Athletics and Wolff is the club's managing partner.

The Athletics have made five playoff appearances under Beane, who has been with the team longer than any other American League GM. Beane was recently portrayed on the big screen by Brad Pitt in Moneyball. He last constructed a playoff team in 2006, when Oakland made it to the ALCS.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.

Giants Designate Justin Christian For Assignment

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The Giants designated outfielder Justin Christian for assignment, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.  With the additions of Ryan Theriot and Guillermo Mota, the team's 40-man roster is now full.

Christian, 31, hit .294/.376/.459 in 589 plate appearances across Double and Triple-A in 2011, appearing at all three outfield positions.

Emilio Bonifacio Beats Marlins In Arbitration

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Emilio Bonifacio beat the Marlins in their arbitration hearing, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. The Wasserman Media Group client will be paid $2.2MM in 2012 instead of the Marlins' $1.95MM figure.

Like the Rays, Nationals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and Astros (prior to Jeff Luhnow), the Marlins have a policy of going to hearings once the arbitration figure exchange deadline is reached.  This year they also lost a hearing to Anibal Sanchez.  The Marlins lost to Cody Ross in 2010, Dan Uggla in 2009, and Miguel Cabrera in 2007.  The team beat Kevin Gregg in '07.  Keep in mind, though, that if the Marlins had settled at the midpoint in all six cases, they only would have saved $1,562,500 in total.  They might have gained more than that amount if their "file and trial" policy compelled other players to settle at team-friendly amounts out of fear for going to a hearing.

This year the clubs and players are even at 2-2, with the teams having beaten John Lannan and Jeff Niemann.  14 arbitration eligible players remain unsigned, though in recent years we have not seen more than eight total hearings.  Check out MLBTR's arbitration tracker here.

Comparing Cruz, Jones, Gordon In Arbitration

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Arbitration eligible outfielders Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, and Alex Gordon all remain unsigned.  As outfielders with at least four years of big league service and less than five, their cases are tied together.  Let's take a closer look.

Cruz and Jones submitted near-identical salaries of $7.5MM and $7.4MM, respectively.  The Orioles value Jones less than the Rangers value Cruz, submitting a figure $500K below Cruz's $5.5MM.  It's no coincidence MLB scheduled the players' arbitration hearings for the same day, as that way a win by one can't benefit another.  Should one of the two reach an agreement soon, the salary figure might be kept under wraps until the other's is determined.  Gordon's hearing is scheduled one day earlier, but they're reportedly close to an agreement.  The Cruz-Jones argument can be tailored either way — Cruz has more career power, but Jones is more durable and plays a premium position.

Gordon is valued below Cruz and Jones by all parties, as he submitted $5.45MM and the Royals $4.15MM.  All things considered Gordon had the best platform year, topping Cruz and Jones easily in batting average, on-base percentage, runs, and stolen bases while posting similar home run and RBI totals.  He's further boosted by a Gold Glove, so one separator here has to be the players' career numbers and related previous year earnings.  Though Gordon wins in career OBP, his home run and RBI totals lag well behind the other two players.

Looking at past precedent, how strong are the cases of Cruz, Jones, and Gordon?

  • Cruz wants a $3.85MM raise, while the Rangers are trying for the same $1.85MM one Carlos Quentin received after the 2010 season.  Using Quentin's numbers through 2010, Cruz has better career numbers and a similar platform year.  Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham received $1.75MM and $1.65MM raises in similar situations, though Cruz trumps all in career power numbers.  However, Cruz does not have an advantage over where Luke Scott was after 2010, and Scott received a $2.35MM bump.  Scott seems to push the argument in the Rangers' favor, except that Scott spent much of 2010 at designated hitter.  Another point in Cruz's favor, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned to me, is his fantastic postseason production.
  • Jones wants a $4.15MM increase.  He's short on career home runs compared to his arbitration peers, so maybe his argument will be based on his ability to play center field regularly and a better platform year than B.J. Upton's 2010.
  • Gordon seeks a $4.05MM raise.  Given his batting average, run total, and Gold Glove award, he had the best platform year of his peers.  He also has the worst career power numbers, plus the Royals filed a million bucks higher than the Rangers and Orioles did for their guys.
  • We always hear that arbitration hearings are a crapshoot, and perhaps none of these players will end up going to one.  However, the arguments seem to favor the teams in the cases of Cruz, Jones, and Gordon, who are seeking to top Hunter Pence's $3.5MM raise despite inferior numbers.  Additionally, Matt Swartz's arbitration projections came in below the midpoint for all three players.

Introducing HoopsRumors.com

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We are proud to announce our new NBA rumors site, Hoops Rumors!  Luke Adams and his team of NBA fanatics are covering rumors and transactions 365 days a year with the style, timeliness, and analysis you've come to love on MLBTR.  The team has been quietly covering all the latest for the past week, so there is plenty of reading material. 

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The NBA trade deadline is just over a month away, so head over to Hoops Rumors to get the latest trustworthy information from around the web on Dwight Howard, Chris Kaman, Stephen Jackson and more.  If you like what you see, please bookmark the site, follow us on Twitter, and like us on Facebook.

Quick Hits: Mets, Phillips, Brewers

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Here are some notes from around MLB to cap off a day that saw Billy Beane, Clayton Kershaw and Elvis Andrus agree to extensions with their respective clubs…

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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Yoenis Cespedes is in the U.S. and plans to meet with the Marlins tomorrow. The latest on the Cuban outfielder, who may have a deal by the time Spring Training begins:

  • Marlins president David Samson hinted to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com that Miami might be ready to make its move. “I don’t know how tomorrow will go. But it would not surprise me if it ended with an offer,” Samson said (all Twitter links). Samson said the Marlins will go to lunch with Cespedes tomorrow and show him their new ballpark. The Marlins will "do something spectacular" for Cespedes, Samson said.
  • Cespedes told reporters he'd like to play in Miami, Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald tweets. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro hears the Marlins are the frontrunner at this point (Twitter link).
  • An American League source tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel that the Marlins are likely to sign Cespedes.
  • Cespedes is arriving in Miami today to meet with Katz, tweets Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post, and he's expected to meet with the Marlins tomorrow for a ballpark tour.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that executives from other teams may visit Cespedes later in Miami as well.  The Orioles are planning a scouting trip to see Cespedes within seven to ten days, tweets Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun.
  • As of Sunday, Cespedes still had not been unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, even though he's a free agent and can negotiate with MLB teams.  Katz explained, "I think we can come to terms with no execution of contract and no playing."  Katz is "reasonably confident" Cespedes will be signed in time for camp this year.
  • Cespedes awaits face-to-face meetings with his agents and interested teams, writes Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.  The goal is to have Cespedes in big league camp by the third week of February.  Industry sources tell Levine bidding could reach $60MM over six years.  In January, Cespedes named the Cubs as his most interested suitor.

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