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Checking In On The Offseason’s Multiyear Deals

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So far this offseason, 33 players have signed multiyear deals. Albert Pujols’ megacontract is worth 100 times as much as Laynce Nix’s relatively modest $2.4MM deal, so not all multiyear deals are created equal. But they demonstrate a willingness on the part of teams to commit long term and, usually, to spend more. Here's a look at which teams have spent most aggressively on multiyear deals for free agents so far this winter (extensions not included).

As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, 19 of the 30 MLB teams have already signed at least one player to a multiyear deal. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Marlins lead the way with four apiece and the Phillies have signed three such deals. On the other hand, the Braves, White Sox, Reds, Indians, Astros, Yankees, Padres, Mariners, Rays, Blue Jays and Nationals have yet to sign a free agent to a multiyear deal. However, some of those teams have been linked to Prince Fielder and other free agents, so the offseason totals are by no means final.

Last offseason 22 clubs signed at least one player to a multiyear deal, as our Transaction Tracker shows. Five teams have avoided multiyear free agent deals in both of past two offseasons: the Braves, Indians, Astros, Rays and Blue Jays.

In some cases teams prefer long-term deals. Why lock a superstar player like Jose Reyes up for one-year when you can have him for six? And in some cases players prefer short-term deals. Why sign long-term after a disappointing season when an Adrian Beltre-like 'pillow contract' will allow you to re-establish your value? Generally speaking, however, players prefer multiyear security.

Tigers Notes: Damon, Cespedes, Turner

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The Tigers announced this week that Victor Martinez is likely to miss the 2012 season with a torn ACL and though GM Dave Dombrowski said the team won’t act rashly, the Tigers figure to be on the lookout for a bat. Here’s the latest on the defending AL Central Champions…

  • Tigers manager Jim Leyland said on MLB Network Radio that the Tigers probably aren’t going to find someone as good as Martinez. “So if you say it’s not gonna hurt us, you’re lying,” he added. Hat tip to Jason Beck of MLB.com, who has a partial transcript of Leyland's comments.
  • Leyland said Johnny Damon’s name will likely come up since he can contribute to a club, even if he's not a "prototype DH."
  • Leyland knows there are a lot of options remaining for teams in search of hitters. “How good they produce anymore, I don’t know,” he said. “And I always ultimately leave that up to Dave. We’ve already had some discussions, I won’t say who they are, of some guys internally.”
  • John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press suggests Vladimir Guerrero and Raul Ibanez could be fits for the Tigers and notes that it remains to be seen whether Martinez's injury will affect the Tigers' pursuit of Yoenis Cespedes.
  • Right-hander Jacob Turner, third baseman Nick Castellanos, left-hander Drew Smyly and left-hander Casey Crosby top Baseball America's list of the Tigers' best prospects entering the season.
  • Leyland said the Tigers could round out their rotation with a trade or a free agent acquisition, James Schmehl of MLive.com writes. Turner and others would compete for the team's final rotation spot if Dombrowski doesn't add a starter.
  • Right-hander Max Scherzer is an extension candidate and I previewed a possible deal last night.

NL East Notes: Wigginton, Brown, Oviedo, Fielder

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Earlier today we heard that the Nationals are discussing a contract extension with Ryan Zimmerman and that the agent for Cole Hamels doesn't think Jered Weaver's five-year $85MM deal is that relevant for his client. Here are some more notes on the NL East, starting with Hamels’ teammates in Philadelphia…

  • GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on MLB Network Radio that the Phillies are operating carefully because they’re up against the luxury tax, Jim Bowden tweets.
  • Amaro said Ty Wigginton will play first base regularly until Ryan Howard returns from the disabled list, Bowden tweets. Jim Thome will also get occasional starts at first.
  • Amaro said he expects to platoon John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix in left field, Bowden tweets. Unless Domonic Brown wows his bosses in Spring Training, he’ll head to the Phillies' Triple-A club. 
  • There’s an expectation that the Marlins will try to trade Juan Carlos Oviedo, and the reliever told Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that he’s mentally prepared for a deal. “It's a business,” he said. “I'd like to stay in Miami, but those are things they decide.”
  • Many baseball people still view the Nationals as the favorite to sign Prince Fielder, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Quick Hits: Motte, Cespedes, Garcia, Angels

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On this date last year, the White Sox selected Philip Humber off of waivers from the Athletics. The right-hander posted a 3.75 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 163 innings in 2011 and projects to start for Chicago in 2012. We didn't see anyone claimed on waivers today, but we do have these links…

  • A multiyear deal between the Cardinals and Jason Motte is ‘in play,’ though nothing is close, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Motte filed for $2.4MM in arbitration, with the Cardinals countering at $1.5MM, as our Arbitration Tracker shows.
  • Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes hit his first home run since joining the Dominican Winter League and you can view a clip of it here (hat tip: Keith Law).
  • Another Cuban, left-hander Onelkis Garcia, will be eligible for the 2012 amateur draft, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. MLB made Garcia eligible to MLB teams as last year's draft approached, before making him ineligible at the last minute. Scouts tell Badler the 22-year-old projects as a reliever and could be selected in the third round this June.
  • Angels GM Jerry Dipoto explained to Lance Pugmire of the LA Times that at one point during the Winter Meetings, the Angels had people negotiating with representatives for C.J. Wilson, LaTroy Hawkins and Albert Pujols in three different places.
  • Indians president Mark Shapiro, who is depicted in the Moneyball movie, told Jordan Bastian of MLB.com that he enjoyed the film for what it was. "I appreciate why most people would like it,” Shapiro said. “But I felt like it was an oversimplified kind of view, which is kind of what you have to do when you take a lot of history and condense it into an hour and a half."

Contract Details: Bray, Nationals, Cust

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All of last night’s filing numbers, including player submissions, team submissions and midpoints, can now be found in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Here are some contract details from around MLB:

Rangers Notes: Darvish, Fielder, Hamilton

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The Rangers officially got their man today, signing Yu Darvish to a six-year, $60MM contract on top of the $51.7MM posting fee they will now pay the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish will wear #11 with the Rangers according to Jeff Wilson of The Forth Worth Star-Telegram (on Twitter), a number that NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman says will be semi-retired by Nippon Ham. Here's the latest from Texas…

  • The Rangers remain interested in Prince Fielder, but Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News says it would likely take a creative, short-term deal to make it happen.
  • “I’m intimately aware of our budget and it’s very unlikely," said GM Jon Daniels to reporters (including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan) when asked about Fielder. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports corroborates these reports (Twitter link), saying the slugger's price must come way down.
  • Morosi adds (on Twitter) that the Rangers and Josh Hamilton shelved extension talks recently so they could focus on Darvish and their arbitration-eligible players. Hamilton doesn't want to talk about a new deal once Spring Training starts.
  • "Sometimes these negotiations can be contentious, these were not," said Daniels to reporters (including Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthwest.com) when asked about the nature of the Darvish discussions today (Twitter link).

Orlando Cabrera To Retire

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Longtime MLB shortstop Orlando Cabrera said on a Colombian radio station that he will retire from baseball, reports ElHeraldo.co. Cabrera spent 15 seasons in the Major Leagues, winning two Gold Gloves and collecting 2,055 hits along the way.

The 37-year-old Colombia native signed with the Expos in 1993, made his MLB debut four years later and played for Montreal until the Red Sox traded for him in 2004. After winning a championship in Boston, Cabrera moved on to the Angels, White Sox, Athletics, Twins, Reds, Indians and Giants. He retires with a .272/.317/.390 career batting line, 123 home runs and 216 stolen bases. Baseball-Reference pegs his career wins above replacement at 18.3 and his career earnings at $51.7MM.

Nationals Talking Extension With Ryan Zimmerman

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The Nationals have been kicking the tires on Prince Fielder and recently locked up Gio Gonzalez long-term, but now they're focusing on their homegrown star. MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that the team is currently discussing a contract extension with Ryan Zimmerman. Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post says (on Twitter) that the two sides have been talking for a while, but they're no closer to a deal. 

The 27-year-old Zimmerman still has two years remaining on the five-year, $45MM contract he signed prior to the 2009 season. He'll make $12MM in 2012 and $14MM in 2013. Zimmerman has been one of the game's best players in recent years, hitting .296/.370/.499 with 70 homers over the last three seasons with stellar defense at the hot corner. He earned MVP votes in 2009 and 2010, and probably would have again in 2011 if he didn't miss two months due to an abdomenal problem.

Zimmerman's camp is likely looking at extensions recently signed by Troy Tulowitzki (six years, $119MM) and Ryan Braun (five years, $105MM) as framework for a new deal. All three players were selected within the top seven picks of the 2005 draft, as were Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Ricky Romero. Zimmerman is represented by Brodie Van Wagenen.

Rockies To Sign Jamie Moyer

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The Rockies have agreed to sign 49-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer to a minor league deal, the team announced. Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported Monday that the Rockies had offered the veteran a contract. The Rockies will give Moyer the chance to compete for a rotation spot while tutoring younger pitchers on the staff, assuming he passes an upcoming physical.

Moyer pitched for the Phillies in 2010 and missed last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He worked out in front of scouts this offseason and appears to have impressed the Rockies.

Moyer owns a 267-204 career record with a 4.24 ERA in 24 MLB seasons. He posted a 4.84 ERA with 5.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 44.1% ground ball rate for the 2010 Phillies. 14 of the players on Colorado's 40-man roster were not yet born when Moyer debuted with the Cubs in June of 1986.

Extension Candidate: Max Scherzer

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The Tigers and Max Scherzer agreed to a 2012 salary of $3.75MM yesterday, but the negotiations won’t necessarily end there, since extension season is just beginning. Last year, for example, 24 players signed extensions between the date arbitration numbers were exchanged and the end of April. Just one of those players was a client of the Boras Corporation — Scherzer's agency — but the possibility of an extension exists for the 27-year-old right-hander nevertheless.

Max Scherzer - Tigers

Gio Gonzalez and Justin Masterson are two of the first-time arbitration eligible pitchers who most closely resemble Scherzer. Gonzalez (38-32, 3.93 ERA in 535 1/3 innings) Masterson (28-38, 3.92 ERA in 613 2/3 innings) and Scherzer (36-35, 3.92 ERA in 617 innings) all have similar numbers from a career standpoint. However, Scherzer's platform season ERA of 4.43 exceeded the 2011 marks Gonzalez and Masterson posted by more than a run. Gonzalez recently signed a five-year, $42MM extension and Masterson is another candidate for a long-term deal.

Gonzalez and Masterson aren’t the only pitchers who resemble Scherzer. The Tigers right-hander has numbers that resemble the ones John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza and Johnny Cueto had when they became arbitration eligible for the first time. The various contracts those pitchers signed offer insight into Scherzer’s future earning power.

A four-year deal worth slightly more than $30MM could work for both sides, I believe. Recent deals for the pitchers above suggest a deal between Scherzer and the Tigers might look like this: $3.5MM in 2012, $6MM in 2013, $8MM in 2014, $12MM in 2014 and a modest buyout for one or two additional club option seasons. A guaranteed four-year total in the $30MM range would eclipse Cueto’s $27MM deal and while it wouldn’t reach Gonzalez’s $42MM mark, that may not be realistic for a pitcher with Scherzer’s 2011 ERA. 

The Tigers would extend their control of Scherzer and cap his earnings by buying out his arbitration seasons and at least one year of free agency. Tigers starters Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister and Jacob Turner are all under team control through 2014 or later and extending Scherzer would keep the group in place for even longer. While there are risks associated with every pitcher extension, the 2006 first rounder has made 30-plus starts in both of the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Scherzer would obtain multiyear security and extend his stay with the 2011 AL Central champs.  

Advanced metrics such as xFIP (3.70), FIP (4.14) and SIERA (3.63) suggest Scherzer's 2011 ERA of 4.43 was higher than expected for someone with his peripheral stats. If the statistically-minded hurler is willing to gamble on similar health and improved luck in 2012, his extension prospects might look considerably better a year from now. But if Scherzer is willing to sign before the season and the Tigers are looking to lock him up, a four-year deal in the $30MM range seems fair.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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