You knew there would be a lot of Yankee news the day after the Bronx Bombers were eliminated from the postseason. Ben Nicholson-Smith already gave us one batch of items out of New York today, and now here are a few more tidbits as the Yanks look ahead to next year…
- Jesus Montero may once again be trade bait this winter, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. A group of scouts tells Harper that such pitchers as James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos or Matt Cain could potentially be obtained in a deal featuring Montero. Harper also says "the early indications are the Yanks won't go to extremes to sign" C.J. Wilson as a free agent.
- Brian Cashman says that starting pitching is "always, always, always" the club's offseason focus and this year will be no different, reports Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. Cashman noted, however, that he doesn't expect next year's roster to be drastically different from the 2011 edition.
- With Alex Rodriguez's weak postseason numbers fresh in everyone's mind, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post and Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal both express worry about the six years and $143MM remaining on A-Rod's contract.
- Locking up C.C. Sabathia for more years and more millions could turn the ace into a Rodriguez-esque albatross on the Yankee payroll, warns Johnette Howard of ESPN New York.
- Which of New York's two big free agents is a safer signing: Sabathia or Mets shortstop Jose Reyes? Ken Plutnicki of the New York Times asks the question.
for four years they are both equally safe. for six-seven years, neither is even remotely safe.
the rolls on his neck the give away?
Id be more comfortable giving CC 4 years than Reyes. Id be equally worried about 6 years for either of them, and Id rather have Reyes for 8. If I were negotiating with CC, and I had the pocket book that Steinbrenner has, Id be willing to give him 5 years 125 million, and then throw in a few option years depending on DL stints, inning pitched, etc. If I were really paranoid, I would even require a physical examination for the options to kick in.
There is absolutely NO CHANCE the Giants would trade Matt Cain for Jesus Montero. None.
“in a deal featuring montero”
Granted I misread it..But still..I don’t think the Giants would trade Cain even in a deal featuring Montero…ONLY if the Yankees absolutely blew their socks off…But I just don’t see it happening…
so what you’re saying is, that the san francisco giants won’t trade Cain to the Yankees for a package which included Montero… unless they liked the deal the yankees offer..
hmm, interesting theory
Great trades a one’s that are good for all teams involed. Yanks-Grandy Arizona-Kennedy and Tigers- Jackson,Coke is an example of a great trade.
Coke on your pitching staff? Hey, it’s the ’80s all over again!
Tigers also got Scherzer let’s not forget
and the D’Backs got Edwin Jackson, who they later traded for Daniel Hudson
Good analysis there LB45
The Giants would be idiots not to make that trade with Cain having 1 year left on his deal. They need OFFENSE!
Do the Giants need a DH in a league that only has a use for one like 18 times and also.. Lets make sure the kid Montero is everything he is supposed to be before the Giants give up a top 8-10 pitcher in the national league one would thing and btw… Why has not SF signed this guy LT? Hitters are far easier to find on the market than dominant starters.
No, the Giants would be idiots to trade a world class starting pitcher for a guy who cannot play defense, and occasionally hits a homer. How many homers have won playoff games this year? Guess what, the homer ain’t taking you to the WS. Pitching does that.
Breaking down Montero’s value into a guy that “occasionally hits a homer” is incredibly short sighted and dumb. He’s been compared to guys like Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera. Were they that great at defense? No, but the Giants need offense and putting him at 1B with Belt in the OF makes a ton of sense. I mean Aubrey Huff is awful and you don’t have much of anything in the OF.
outfielders and first baseman are easier to find. and i’m not so sure the Giants are as deep in pitching as people instantly assume they are (Zach Wheeler for a rental is likely to haunt them)
“Guess what, the homer ain’t taking you to the WS. Pitching does that.”
Not always the case. Look at the Phillies in the postseason this year. And the Yankees did not advance Not because of their pitching but because of no clutch hitting. Now I know it wouldn’t have taken them to the WS if they beat Detroit, but a step closer nontheless, same for the Phillies.
Neither the Philles nor the Yankees lost because of pitching.
did they lose because of a lack of hitting, or did the other teams win because of pitching?
in the case of philly’s game 5 last night, i don’t think you can really say that team needed more hitting. sometimes you just have to say damn, great game. they were good enough to win, but lost by a run. getting outplayed in a short series happens
But again, I guess the way to breakthrough each series (since they are short) is to go game by game, the Yankees outscored the Tigers by 11 runs. The games they lost, they failed to come up big in the end. They had the tying or winning/go ahead run at the plate in the 9th inning of all 3 games they lost. Yes you credit Tigers pitching in that case, but simply put, the Yankees lost that series due to not being clutch. When they won, it was blowouts, when they lost it was “failing” in the 9th. I don’t know if you consider it “luck” or not, but with the exception of Benoit and Valverde’s Game 5, the Tigers bullpen did not pitch well this series at all.
I’m just simply stating that if Nick Swisher or A-Rod get a base hit with the bases loaded, the chances are, the Yankees win that series. Instead, each struck out, and the Yankees don’t score except for the bases loaded walk. I don’t know if you can call it “good pitching” or “luck pitching” when a reliever allows base runners, some to score, but hold on (such as Game 2).
Crazy year this has been, while the Tigers/Rays did not go the distance, all final games of each series were won by a run.
Again, my main point was, neither the Yankees nor the Tigers lost their Game 5’s due to their own team’s pitching.
i hear you. all i’m saying is a lack of timely hitting is different than a lack of hitting talent. yankees and phillies had plenty of hitting talent, but it didn’t come through in a short series
that can happen with pitching too, of course, but good pitching is a lot less streaky
The Yanks had a higher batting average than the Tigers .260-.228, and had a lower ERA3.27- 5.73 and lost the short series because they didn’t hit with men on base in the games they lost.
That was my point
You need clutch players to win championships. The is why the yanks need to get rid of nick swisher he doesnt get the job done in the postseason PERIOD. Obviously AROD deserves to go but whod take him!
You can’t rate a player simply based on what he does in a short 5 game series. If that were the case then logic would dictate that the Yanks resign Posada for 2012 simply based upon the exceptional series he had vs the Tigers.
Which one would you want?
A player that performs above average w/ a 3.8 WAR or the guy that had a great 5 game series but had a below average full season with a -0.4 WAR?
When it comes to a 5 game series it is randon who is going to perform better, there is no formula!
That’s not fair to Posada. Swisher is a fine hitter, who, over 38 career post season games has “hit” .169, with an OBP of .295 and slugs .323. These are pathetic numbers and very much out of line with his regular season numbers. The conclusion is inescapable that he doesn’t come through in the clutch.
Jorge’s numbers over 125 post season games are .248/.358/.387. These are not Ruthian stats, but come on, they are at least professional numbers, and are somewhat comparable to Swisher’s REGULAR season line of .254/.360/.466.
“Which one would you want?” That’s a no-brainer, I’ll take Posada.
Now I know Posada is unlikely to be back due to his age and the limited at bats he’d get, but a better move would be to refuse the option on Swisher and let him leave. Then move either Rodriguez or Jeter to LF, and Gardner to RF.
I agree with just about everything you said. You had me until you went to the fantasy baseball world of plugging two future HOF’ers who are at an advanced BB age into a new position.
So you would rather have below average production over 162 games inorder to get a 5 game hot streak? Great move.
Swisher led the team in OBP, was 4th in hrs and provided good defense this year with a 6.9 UZR. To think Arod or Jeter can do anything like that never having played the OF is ridiculous.
As YFS78 said, it’s a small sample size. Plus do you realize Swisher led the team in OBP? .10 points higher than Granderson.
I’m not certain that it’s a small sample size with Swisher. We are talking 3 yrs of post season play here. ’09 gets overlooked because NY won, but he didn’t hit in ’10 and in this series aside from the HR, he disappeared again.
It’s a shame because he’s an easier target than A-Rod or Tex to pick on, but they have a slightly better track record. A-Rod did stand out during the ’09 post season and Tex brings the glove if nothing else. Swisher can’t even claim that.
“Tex brings the glove if nothing else. Swisher can’t even claim that”.
6.9 UZR, but continue…..you amuse me (stroking my chin).
My point had to do more with post season performance than overall play. Though we both know that UZR with outfielders is somewhat skewed to say the least. And we both have been seeing Swish play the outfield since he got to NY. Possibly you stopped, but I still hold my breath when Swisher has to run after a fly ball in the OF. I will acknowledge that his defense has improved from atrocious when he arrived to mediocre at present time. I don’t mean to dump on the guy because he’s been a great addition to the team, the fans and the clubhouse, but he’s just not my guy.
But to answer your question, I call it lack of hitting if you keep leaving base runner after base runner.
If the Yanks play the final game on Saturday and the temp is 80 then the ball Jeter hit is going over the fence rather than falling three feet short, there are just too many factors to consider.
Carpenter throwing a CG is in my opinion the Phillies losing because of pitching.
CG shut out by the way.
Um, as I siad, the Phillies lost Game 5, simply because they had no offense. When you’re pitching only gives up 1 run, chances are you probably will win the game. The opposing pitching shut down the Phillies, but the Phillies did not lose because of Their pitching. Get it?
Actually, both lost because of pitching. The Yankees pitching was not very good, and the Phils simply got outclassed by Carpenter on the final game.
The Yankees pitching was not very good? Even slider said, the Yankees had a 3.27 ERA which was the lowest amongst all the playoff teams.
Neither the Yankees nor the PHillies lost because of Their team’s pitching. Are you saying the Game 5 loss for the Phillies is Hallday’s fault?
Correct, the Yankees did not pitch very good. That statistic you guys are tossing around is very misleading. For instance, Garcia had something like a 6.35 ERA in his outing in game 2. The same for CC in game 3, 6.35. CC and Nova combined for an ERA of 5.40 in game 5. Their starting pitching fell short of “sucking,” but it sure wasn’t very good.
I am not blaming Halladay. I am simply stating he was outclassed and outmatched on that particular night by a superlative performance by Carpenter.
I stand by my conclusion. It is pitching that wins these things.
“Guess what, the homer ain’t taking you to the WS. Pitching does that”.
Granted, pitching plus defense usually = playoff team.
In reality, Giants starters ranked 2nd behind Philly. The defense ranked 5th in the NL. The team ranked last in Runs scored, OBP and 2nd last in OPS. They didn’t make the playoffs. Last year was a perfect storm and this year reality hit. Ignore the offense again and the same results will happen.
I’m not saying that Montero is the answers and in truth, I don’t want Montero to be traded, but the Giants can’t ignore the offensive holes again.
The Yanks had the lowest ERA in the playoffs and they lost!
That’s sort of my point. Great pitching is the main ingredient but you also need the other components.
Remember back in the 70’s when the Red Sox would lead the world in offense (opposite) but no pitching other than Luis Tiant up until ’78 and that season they had Dennis Eckersley, but nobody else in the rotation worthy whily the NYY were loaded. It was always pitching that would win it rather than having the worlds best lineup.
Right but one of the main problems the Yanks have had for a while is that they hit in clumps but all seem to struggle at the same time. We win a lot by 6 or 7 runs but not enough when the score is 4-3.
This year, including the playoffs, the pitching was good DESPITE not having any big names other than CC. In this case perception of no pitching was not the reality.
That’s highly misleading. They had two strong performances, one from Nova and one from Burnett. But they had 3 poor performances out of Garcia, CC and CC/Nova combo. The statistic you are throwing around does not prove your supposed point that the pitching was not the reason for their losses. The ERA of the Yankees starters over the specific 16.1 innings I am referencing was something like 6.06.
I guess you would know best since your native team made it to the playoffs.
Maybe if I was the GM of the BoSox, your criticism would make sense.
Yeah just ask the Phillies Pitching gets you straight to the SHIP
Just “having” pitching is not enough. They’ve got to show up and pitch well. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt failed them by offering poor performances (Lee 5 runs over 6+ IP; Oswalt 5 runs over 6 IP). If their pitching had performed up to snuff, they would have won that series.
Sabean has to at least listen to offers. If we don’t get some offense, Cain is out when he becomes a free agent. Montero plus some other top prospects. Then he goes to first and Buster behind the plate. Plus we could trade them up once in a while to give Posey a rest.
I submit the Yankees wouldn’t even entertain trading Montero for Cain. Cain in Yankee Stadium and the AL East isn’t even close to the pitcher you see for the Giants. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys and his underlying numbers are most impressive in suppressing home runs. Something that undoubtedly would change in the AL East and as a right handed pitcher in Yankee Stadium. Especially since he gives up a TON of fly balls. Add in that he has 1 year left on his deal and I have no idea why the Yankees would really give up much for Cain, none the less 6 years of one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball.
Among active pitchers, Cain is 25th in k/9 and 11th in WHIP. Cain has learned to pitch to contact, he walks far less guys than when he came up. But it is still a nuetral park, he is still a top 10 pitcher.
You didn’t even respond to what I was actually saying. WHIP isn’t exactly the best stat in the world but his k/9 would definitely drop without seeing the pitcher and actually facing good lineups. Last year his HR/FB also dropped well below a sustainable rate and will most likely return to normal. You really think there isn’t a massive difference for a right handed fly ball pitcher pitching in the NL West in a ballpark that suppresses home runs to right field and pitching in the AL East in a ballpark that allows a ton of home runs to right field? And he’s walking less but also striking out less. Contact is a good thing in a weak hitting division in a large park. Pitching to contact in the AL East in Yankee Stadium will get you killed. Add in the 1 year left on his deal and it’s not worth it. Not even close. If you can’t understand why trading a top 5 or so prospect for someone switching from one of the most ideal places to pitch for his skill set vs one of the worst with 1 year left on his deal then I dunno how to even argue the point with you.
His k/9 was 7.3 last year, the previous two years were 7.1. His career is 7.4, I fail to see how his k/9 dropped. Cain’s hr/fb ratio has always been abnormal, and his peripherals have always been great. Cain is known for pitching up in the zone, don’t you think that has something to do with the ballpark he calls home? I’d rather keep Cain if the return is Montero, especially considering the Giants don’t have the luxury of DH. Bet the Yankees would have loved to have him in the playoffs this year, especially considering what he did last year
You are still missing some valid points. I still think Cain would be a good pitcher in the AL but he probably won’t be the same.
Montero can also play 1b so to keep acting as if he wouldn’t be useful is simply a joke.
You can’t ignore the differences between the NL and AL though.
the giants have belt at first who is an above average defender there, montero has nowhere to play
I know where Belt plays. He can also play the OF as well. The suggestion made by others was that Montero could play 1B, Belt the OF and Posey @ C. However, my thought was that Huff would be a problem because he’s due another $13 mil or so for next year plus the buyout for 2013.
I know where Belt plays. He can also play the OF as well. The suggestion made by others was that Montero could play 1B, Belt the OF and Posey @ C. However, my thought was that Huff would be a problem because he’s due another $13 mil or so for next year plus the buyout for 2013.
His k/9 was 7.3 last year, the previous two years were 7.1. His career is 7.4, I fail to see how his k/9 dropped. Cain’s hr/fb ratio has always been abnormal, and his peripherals have always been great. Cain is known for pitching up in the zone, don’t you think that has something to do with the ballpark he calls home? I’d rather keep Cain if the return is Montero, especially considering the Giants don’t have the luxury of DH. Bet the Yankees would have loved to have him in the playoffs this year, especially considering what he did last year
You didn’t even respond to what I was actually saying. WHIP isn’t exactly the best stat in the world but his k/9 would definitely drop without seeing the pitcher and actually facing good lineups. Last year his HR/FB also dropped well below a sustainable rate and will most likely return to normal. You really think there isn’t a massive difference for a right handed fly ball pitcher pitching in the NL West in a ballpark that suppresses home runs to right field and pitching in the AL East in a ballpark that allows a ton of home runs to right field? And he’s walking less but also striking out less. Contact is a good thing in a weak hitting division in a large park. Pitching to contact in the AL East in Yankee Stadium will get you killed. Add in the 1 year left on his deal and it’s not worth it. Not even close. If you can’t understand why trading a top 5 or so prospect for someone switching from one of the most ideal places to pitch for his skill set vs one of the worst with 1 year left on his deal then I dunno how to even argue the point with you.
Bottom line is that Cain will be a free agent in a year and unless he is willing to sign a long term contract the Yanks will not trade for him. The Yanks need a #2 pitcher and will be looking to put a package together for one with Montero in it. The Giants need hitting and the Yanks need pitching so they might be a match.
I feel the Yanks need to get more than a 1 year rental. A deal for Cain would probably demand Montero plus others. After 2012, the situation would dictate the Yankees pay at all costs to retain Cain and that, IMO, compounds the cost of Cain.
IF Montero were to be traded it would almost have to be for a pitcher of the caliber and the contract of a guy like James Shields, Jon Lester, etc. That prospect price has to be offset by performance and the ability to retain that talent over a 3 or 4 year period at a fixed price or a young pitcher with 3 years of team control left.
The Rays would never trade with the Yanks!
If the Yankees offered them the best package I bet they would.
If the Yankees offered them the best package I bet they would.
Wow….I did say “like” Shields as well as “like” Lester. OBVIOUSLY, most Al teams aren’t looking to trade with the Yanks. The operative words were “like”.
Wow….I did say “like” Shields as well as “like” Lester. OBVIOUSLY, most Al teams aren’t looking to trade with the Yanks. The operative words were “like”.
Intelligent post
yeah, the only thing the giants have going for them is pitching. And don’t they already have Buster Posey?
I hope the Padres don’t trade away Latos.
“There is absolutely NO CHANCE the Red Sox will trade Nomar. None. Nomar is a lifer!” Well, you get what my point is…
You have to admit montero for Cain makes no sense if the giants neith posey and belt assured to start next season at C and 1st.
The only problem with fitting Montero in a lineup with Posey and Belt is Huff and his $12 mil that’s owed (assuming they decline the 2013 option and just pay the buyout).
Yeah, but, Nomar never pitched 21.1 innings of post season baseball allowing no earned runs while helping lead his team to a World Series title either….
wait, so you’re saying it’s NOT a great idea to give a player a massive, exorbitant, ridiculously irresponsible contract??? gosh, i sure do feel bad those poor yankees. what a tragedy.
Not if his name is Zito.
I think ppl have to put aside risk for a second. Pitchers like CC don’t come along often and when they do, they get paid and they get paid way past their prime. Yanks can afford to pay that price.
If he opts out I can see the Yanks offering, and Sabathia signing, another deal at something like:
2012: $24 mil, 2013: $24 mil, 2014: $24 mil, 2015: $20 mil, 2016: $20 mil, 2017: $18 mil, 2018: $18 mil
That’s 7/$148 mil and I can’t see any team beating that deal. He gets a slight raise for what is the tail end of his “prime” years and overall an additional 3/$56 mil. It would end at age 38 which is the same age (about) that Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay’s deals end and I think those are comparable pitchers.
Serious question: do you think the Yanks might be better served to let CC walk and go after 2-3 other guys? I know CC is an outstanding pitcher (one of the best lefties in the game right now), but he is going to be extremely expensive and his skills are likely going to be greatly diminished years before his next contract is up.
I’m just thinking that they might be better off to go after Wilson, Darvish, and maybe a Buehrle/Jackson/or trade for someone.
It’s unrealistic to think the Yanks are going to get 3 quality pitchers and chances are there still not going to be as good as CC will be over the next 3 years. I completely understand that CC will not be the same guy in 4 years but that’s the price you pay. The Yanks have some luxuries some are overlooking.
Other than CC and AJ the rest of the staff is relatively inexpensive. AJ has two years left on his deal and everyone else is relatively inexpensive over the next couple of years as Hughes and Nova are cheep and there are a host of 3 -4 guys that can be added to the 2013 staff.
The key is to develop the rest of the staff so that whatever they commit to CC for his age 35-37 seasons to be a #4 type starter is offset by cheap but higher performance of the others.
Signings like Wilson and Darvish are going to come close to $100 mil and there’s no reason to think they will outperform what CC has given you.
don’t see it happening for any of those guys. Maybe Cain. Maybe Cahill. But both would cost at least Montero + Banuelos + Betances or something along those lines… which would hurt. alot.
Yeahhh, no one except Seattle would get those three all together for one player. Cahill? Puh-lease.
Is that a joke? I don’t think the Yankees would trade one of those guys for Cahill. And Cain? Ya a massive fly ball pitcher switching from a huge home ballpark and an easier league and MUCH easier division with one year left on his deal…sounds like the ideal way to spend your top 3 prospects…get real.
Hey man, we got your point the last 12 times you made it ok…
But people can come on and say something ridiculous like Cahill would cost Montero + Banuelos + Betances? If you’re going to criticize someone making a valid counter-point, even if it’s the same counter-point again and again, criticize posters for repeating the first point in the first place.
Ya’ll need to calm down. Cahill would cost that much because he is under team control for the next six years (two options at the end of the deal) that are relatively cheap.
That would be great if Cahill proved himself to be better than a 4.10 FIP pitcher. He’s pitching in an extreme pitcher friendly ballpark and still comes up very short of ace like performance by every measure last year, and I’m sorry, you need more of a track record of being an ace if you’re going to demand that package.
I don’t blame the A’s for asking for that if they did because he doesn’t have to be moved because he doesn’t earn much over the next 3 years and they can afford to pay under $8 mil for a 4.00 FIP over the next few years. However, I attach a monetary value to trading Montero, Bets and Bans and it far exceeds what Cahill is producing.
Probably but look what Ubaldo brought back.. from a lesser division/league.
But people can come on and say something ridiculous like Cahill would cost Montero + Banuelos + Betances? If you’re going to criticize someone making a valid counter-point, even if it’s the same counter-point again and again, criticize posters for repeating the first point in the first place.
Hey man, we got your point the last 12 times you made it ok…
Like I said in the reply to the other dude, Cahill is team controlled for the next six years. You think the A’s are gonna dump him for one top prospect? Didn’t think so.
I’m just being as realistic as possible here people. The A’s aren’t going to give him away for Ramiro Pena.
Montero is a DH. Don’t try and cover it up. The A’s have 4 1b for next year and anyone of them could slide into DH. If the A’s trade Cahill for prospects it would be for a 3b prospect. The Yanks wouldn’t offer him around if they thought he was more than a DH. The writer just threw in a bunch of names and hoped one would stick. Cain for Montero was just play dumb. The yanks will end up keeping montero and slide him to DH and hope he bombs away and shows he is worth a ace.
Cahill has youth on his side but a deal like the one you mentioned has to be based on as much of a guarantee of “ace” like performance as possible. Cahill has a FIP of 4.10 and 4.19 over the last two years. He still has potential to be an ace but the Yanks need someone who is a proven ace for that kind of package.
As for Cain, that’s too much for a 1 year rental of a NL West pitcher. Yanks don’t have the luxury to wait for an adjustment period.
I would only consider trading Montero if its a guy like Gallardo/Kershaw/Cain/Lincecum/etc, yes Gio Gonzalez is good, but I’m not sure how he’d handle the AL East all the time and not pitching in an extreme pitchers ballpark.
well the only chance you get a guy like those you meantioned is a deal in which Montero’s the second best value traded to them
Haha!! Kershaw? Lmao…
Haha!! Kershaw? Lmao…
Kershaw would cost about as much as King Felix. And then you’re talking Montero plus your 4 top minor leaguers and 2 more between 10 and 20 in your system.
Montero is a beast….Legendary bat, DO NOT TRADE.
legendary? give me a break
Pffffttt, kid is gonna be a hall of famer, fo’ sure!
A legend where did i hear that before on a Yankee DH? Oh yes Kevin Maas. LOL
Pffffttt, kid is gonna be a hall of famer, fo’ sure!
Listen, I know your a Blue Jays fans however, that does not mean you can’t realize the Yankees have a very special young hitter in their organization (Like the Blue Jays’ Lawrie). This is what will basically happen:
1.They trade him (Praying won’t Happen)
or
2.He grows in the yankees organization and becomes an elite force to reckon with
This is what every Angels fan thought of brandon wood…
Perhaps, but Wood and Montero are two very different players and have different make ups.
It might be a little early to call him a legendary bat…same goes for Brett Lawrie…However, Montero’s career stats (when matched by age) compare to some Hall of Famers. So, yes, he has the “potential”.
Yawn. Small sample size. Jeremy Reed looked great in his first September stint, too.
You don’t know what he’s going to become. He could flame out next year and wind up being a life-time AAAA player.
and he goes into the hall of fame with Travis Snider
A good young hitter I will acknowledge that Montero is, I’m not a homer I don’t hate him because he’s a yankee…
but to call him ‘legendary’ is both premature and ridiculous
legendary? give me a break
The legendary bat part is to be determined. I think we need a much bigger sample size before making such a conclusion. But if you are happier with keeping him over scoring another high quality starter, I certainly support your sentiment.
It’s not that I’m happier without a high-quality starter, it’s the fact that the Yankees have tremendous talents waiting for the opportunity. I believe in Banuelos and Betances while Hughes and Nova have already shown they can be high-quality starters right behind CC
The legendary bat part is to be determined. I think we need a much bigger sample size before making such a conclusion. But if you are happier with keeping him over scoring another high quality starter, I certainly support your sentiment.
Like how Joba was a legendary arm and Rivera’s successor? That’s worked out rather well.
Yeah, he just killed those Tigers in that series, didn’t he?
He actually batted 1.000 in his 2 at bats against the Tigers. So yes, in his limited at-bats he killed the Tigers in that series.
How many runs did those two plate appearances generate? Enough to win games? Yeah, didn’t think so. Lotta confidence your man Girardi has in Manny Ramirez 2.0 or whatever he’s being lauded by Yankees fans today.
Ervin Santana for Montero straight up.
Ridiculous. A potential CY candidate for a guy who can’t play defense and has all of 69 MLB plate attempts. Put down the crack pipe and step backward.
Montero and others not named Bans or Bets wouldn’t be too far off IMO. When has Santana been close to a legit Cy Young winner? A lot of guys have potential but he’s 7 years deep into his career and has had a FIP under 4.00 once.
Throw in Manny Banuelos as well to get talks started.
Throw in Manny Banuelos as well to get talks started.
Santana is far from a Cy Young candidate. He’s a good #3. THat being said, Yanks fans over-value Montero. If he was actually going to be a full-time catcher then maybe, but he’s just another 1B.
Lol. He had a 4.00 FIP. You know who else had a 4.00 FIP? Ivan Nova.
A-Rod has 6 yrs and 143 mil left? His production iis already getting horribly ugly at 35 years old imagine him in 2015. OUCH BRO!!!
Teams should look at that before giving Pujols a massive contract.
Teams should look at that before giving Pujols a massive contract.
Imagine him in 2017 at 41 lol
Imagine him in 2017 at 41 lol
A-Rod’s production is not horribly ugly by any standard. He was 4th among MLB third basemen in fWAR this year, behind only Longoria, Beltre, and Sandoval. His wOBA was similar to that of both Longoria and Kevin Youkilis. He was still worth 19 million dollars this year according to FanGraphs, and that’s in only 99 games. He significantly outperformed fellow injury victims David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman in a similar amount of playing time. A-Rod is still an extremely good hitter, and among the best third basemen in the game. His health is definitely a concern, and seemed to be affecting him in the ALDS, but the Yankees should be comfortable that if A-Rod is healthy, he will produce at a very high level. But hey, why not ignore the facts and focus on a sample of 18 at bats if it fits your narrative.
If you’re behind Panda in any category…it’s something to leave off the ol’ resume.
Underrating Sandoval is a mistake, this guy has already shown he can hit in the majors and is very young.
You overrating Montero is a mistake.
Very sensitive people around here. I’m assuming your a Yankee hater??
lol of course he is. If you don’t like them, you hate them. And I see he’s a Rangers fan, probably since 2010, so.
Look we’ve known since 2008 that Arod was not going to perform up to his contract. Everyone except for Randy Levine and the Steinbrenner sons knew that.
As for 2011, Arod had a strong season DESPITE his injuries. He had a 4.2 WAR which was 4th behind Longo, Beltre and Panda. His DEFENSIVE WAR was 4th overall just behind Palanco, Beltre and Sandoval. He was also 7th in wOBA and OPS among ALL 3b. So by all accounts, aside from being injured, he had one of the best seasons offensively and defensively among all 3b. But hey….don’t let facts get in the way of a crazy rant.
your post is contractidory because you claim that if he’s healthy that he will remain productive… the issue is, as he ages given his history (steroid use) will he be able to stay intact for a season? Will he ever play a full season again??
I doubt it, look at his injuries this year, weird, sort of insignificant injuries that kept him out for extended periods of time.
here it is now in baseball world, the last refuge of desperate rationalizing:
when f’s and w’s and references to FanGraphs start appearing
To his credit he was hurt the last 2 months of the year, the first half of the year when he was healthly he was on pace for 30/100 as usual. He hurt the lineup by playing at the end of the season, but when you make his money the Yanks have to play him even when he was hurt. A-Rod is an immortal player but like all big free agents these days he will never meet your expectations. How did Lee do in the playoffs. He had not been that good in the playoffs. You can go down the list with Crawford, Lackey, Werth, and Burnett just to mention a few. I think your going to see more teams try to obtain players this off season through trades rather than spend big money on free agents.
To A-Rod’s credit, he isn’t on HGH anymore. How can he be expected to be the player he once was?
90% of the players were using something, get over it! Its like saying who used mary jane ing the 70’s.
your lack of knowledge on preformance enhancing drugs in baseball should bar you from any argument pertaining to them.
it’s fun to yank on the Yanks for this, and it’s fun to watch A-hole gag out, but the sad reality for all of baseball is that idiot/deluded owners continue to sign off on these longterm deals
Montero will likely be traded. To the people above that wouldn’t trade Cain for Montero, you’re crazy and have absolutely no idea what you are talking about and I am hoping none of you run businesses for a living. Seriously? Guy has a 1 year left of his deal and he ain’t exactly cheap and there is virtually no chance the Giants re-sign him after 2012. Think about it, seriously. It’s a bad trade for the Yankees when they can use Montero for something just as good via trade, and be one of the bidders the following season.
Now that being said, I’d argue the most valuable pitcher of those named above is Cahill and that is the only guy that would command Montero + Betances + Maxwell and one other decent prospect. Everything else is a two for 1 and in some cases a straight up swap for Montero. Latos. lol. Seriously? He’s done well, but come on.
Fans can resist this all they want and we’re back to square one with Montero after a September where he showed what he is about, 2 plate appearances in the PS and both for hits. The guy is a beast with the bat and let’s not forget he is one of the top 5 prospects in baseball on everyone’s list, at anytime over the last few years. If anything his value continues to increase.
Anyone who thinks a package of Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Nova or Nunez for Gio Gonzales is fair, is nuts. That ship has sailed people. I’m not even keen on serving something like that up for Felix any longer. Something is just not sitting well with me about Hernandez these days and I don’t know why. I want the best for that guy and to be a HOF, but I’ve just got a bad feeling on the Mariners handling of him. You do not put an entire sports organization on the shoulders of a 25 year old guy, which is essentially what they’ve done.
your preference for cahill over latos is baffling
Just my opinion, which is only one.
you’re entitled to it, but what is it based on? what do you like about cahill that you don’t like about latos? the groundballs? latos has a better k-rate, better walk-rate, better stuff. they’re the same age
i just don’t know what you like about cahill. his contract?
I’ll admit I don’t know enough about Latos make up, but I do like Cahill’s contract and having seen him several times now, the kid is star. As you know with me on here by now, 9 out of 10 times my comments are just based on intuition and what I see play out on the field. I’m also a big proponent of surroundings, including other players, the environment, parks players play in, etc. Plus Cahill already has had a retarded shut down year in 2010 where as I don’t feel Latos has, as of yet. From the standpoint of consummating a business transaction, I just feel Cahill has the better upside regarding an extended stay in the AL. It would be hard for anyone to guarantee the same with Latos, again at least for the time being. Especially considering any adjustment from the NL West to the AL East. My point wasn’t so much that I would frown upon the Yankees swinging a trade including Montero with the Padres, I just wouldn’t do more than say, Montero, Maxell and Corban Joseph.
I don’t see the Padres being a good trade partner nonetheless, with Rizzo likely to man first, unless of course there’s been a change with that. Any receiving team for Montero goes into this thinking they need to have two spots open, one at catcher and another at first and be able to move Montero around and keep his bat in the line-up. The Giants are great for this, but I’m not keen on trading for Cain, for only a year.
Cahill pitches in the AL and sees better line-ups every time he pitches.
AL West isn’t exactly full of feared line-ups and it sure doesn’t hurt he pitches in that A’s ballpark. Latos has the same thing so it’s a wash.
I would take Latos over Cahill, personally.
Worth noting, Cahill ERA on the road is much higher than at home. Latos is higher as well but not nearly as much as Cahill.
if only we had numbers that adjust for league and park. choose a pitcher:
FIP-
A: 124, 104, 105 – 1 plus pitch
B: 122, 83, 90 – 3 plus pitches
I don’t know much about Latos, and don’t see him pitch because he’s in the NL. therefore Cahill is better
For a 3 month stretch last year Latos was pitching like the best pitcher in the game. He ended this year with an extremely impressive September (5bb/42k in 36.2 IP, 1.96 era).
His splits in his young career are some of the best us Pad fans have had from a pitcher (for instance they blow Jake Peavy’s away, who was prone to lefties as well as being a lot less effective on the road).
Latos’ splits:
Home: .229/.287/.348 (635 ops)
Away: .224/.286/.351 (637 ops)
vs RHB: .208/.277/.335 (612 ops)
vs LHB: .243/.295/.365 (659 ops)
Cahill’s splits are solid: Home 702 OPS, Away 746 OPS, vs RHB 675 OPS, vs LHB 763 – but again, no where near Latos class. If your comparing the two guys by their dominance, and Latos strikes out a TON more, the difference is not one of leagues, but of quality of the pitchers at hand.
Dude would thrive in the AL West. Would love for the Padres to give him a Cahill like contract. He has less reason to accept it due to the more imressive resume, but no hurt in trying.
People talk about his deminished velocity (averaging 92.8 in 2011), but if your watching his starts it seems more of a pitcher growing, as he’s still hitting 96 most, if not all games, while realizing he doesn’t have to put everything he has on his heaters each time he throws one. His slider and curveball are pretty special for a 23 year old pitcher with his velocity.
It’s fun listening to opposing announcers when Latos is pitching like a man possessed. Cahill will have to improve a ton to be in Latos class, but yeah, it’s a nice contract he has and the A’s would get back a lot for him if they were to shop him. I imagine they’ll do so prior to his last guaranteed year when the salary shoots up, but before then it’d take a hard to give up package to sway them.
Can’t see the Padres making Latos available for a package built around Montero. They’re knee deep in 1b as it is and with Hundley’s huge 2nd half, he wouldn’t get a ton of time behind the plate.
Why wouldn’t the Giants resign Cain?
yankees had the chance to trade montero in a deal for roy freakin halladay and they backed out. you think years later, after crushing it in the majors (albeit for a small time), theyd take a cain/cahill quality of pitcher.
forget it.
this is just like with hughes and joba for santana. if the yankees didnt trade them then, you knew they were going to stick with them.
I don’t remember Montero being mentioned in a deal for Halladay.
And regarding Santana, no one, not one person can criticize the Yankees resistance to include Hughes and Joba. You see how that turned out and none are thrillers, but at least the Yankees are on the end where it doesn’t cost them $20mm for a player on the DL for 2 years.
I don’t remember either…however, I will be surprised if Jays didn’t shop Halladay to Yankees and ask for Montero Joba & Gardiner given what is known about the asking prices provided to other teams.
what im getting at is, if the yankees arent going to trade their top prospects for the best pitcher out there then, than why in the world would they trade montero for someone who isnt of that caliber.
They offered a Montero for Halladay straight up deal as well as a couple of other scenarios.
Interesting scenario….IMO….Blue Jays would have seen Halladay’s base value as a 1st round and supplemental pick due to his Type A status. It appeared, as a result, they expected something above that value or an additional good prospect if the top player in package wasn’t equivalent to a 1st round pick player. They would have expected something more than Montero for Halladay.
I am sure the GM on the other side of the table with JP thought the perceived value was over priced since JP used his draft picks poorly and should not be valued as if they were being used by…say the Red Sox, Phillies, or Braves. However, that has changed since AA has taken over as GM.
cuz, yeah, the Yankees so cautiously avoid being ‘on the end’ of a player for $20M
Still won’t give the Yanks credit for avoiding question mark players like Santana and Zito in favor of a durable guy like CC, huh? Ok.
Nope! c’mon YFS, you know the deal. just following the code (although i like to think of them more as guidelines, really) — the Yankee-haters’ code!
Nope! c’mon YFS, you know the deal. just following the code (although i like to think of them more as guidelines, really) — the Yankee-haters’ code!
Still won’t give the Yanks credit for avoiding question mark players like Santana and Zito in favor of a durable guy like CC, huh? Ok.
Yankee fans…do you think it was a mistake for Yankees to overlook Shaun Marcum last off-season? AA probably would have asked for Montero+ (maybe Joba) in exchange. Would you have done the deal?
Even if that was a deal I think the jays
Got the better deal with lawrie. This is just my opinion but a guy who is super young. Hits for average and tons of
Power and an steal a base while playing good defense at both second and 3rd is more valuable than a power hitting weak
Fielding 1st basemen/dh
good points but i need to add one and clarify another:
1. it is no small matter that Lawrie is Canadian, being as thrill-pill as it looks he is. it’s our national equivalent of ‘hometown hero.’ except for Larry Walker before he left the Expos, this is the first time a Morneau-level Canuck has played up here
2. Lawrie has not played second-base in the majors and so it is mere projection/speculation that he could. his D at 3rd has blown everyone away and that becomes dangerous when people start to think it will automatically translate to another position
I share your opinion…however…you have to admit…last winter, Montero must have been enticing to many GMs.
I don’t think AA is looking to trade with the teams in his division, but I think the Tigers got a steal when they picked up Fister. That’s the kind of deal that makes you a Champion.
I don’t share your opinion…I foresee AA being at the front of the line when Tampa has to move one of their good players in order to manage their budget.
I don’t think the Yanks overlooked Marcum at all. He may not have been offered to them and if he was the price may have been much more than what the Yanks felt he was worth. There is a serious history of teams, especially AL East opponents, asking for a premium from the Yanks and Sox, and for obvious reasons.
You are probably right…there always seems to be a tepid response from Yankee fans whenever I bring up Marcum. Probably because he doesn’t throw hard enough for AL East which might have contributed to him being traded by AA.
The Yankees can’t trade Jesus Montero, they already made his plaque for Monument Park.
Actually Montero’s and the future Yankees stars plaques are not going to be displayed at the New Yankees Stadium. Plans are to put the future plaques at Citi Field in order that Mets fans will have Baseball stars besides Tom Seaver and Casey Stengel to admire.
No thanks, you can keep the plaques. We’ll take the players though.
“Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Nova or Nunez” for Gio/Felix/Whoever
Let me break this down as a Mariners fan who loves Felix.
Betances – Simply not interested. Not sure how he Baseball America prospect #43, either. His major league sample (albeit microscopic) was not good. His minor league stats in 2011 — 5.14 ERA in AAA — is not impressive at all. A career 3.49 ERA in MiLB is not that interesting, either. His 10+ K/9 is what intrigues people to believe he’s a good prospect, but a 4.3 BB/9 is not worth it.
Banuelos – 4.19 ERA in AAA, 3.59 in AA why is he the #41 prospect? Everything good he has accomplished has been in A or Rookie ball. Again, it’s the K/9 being over 9. His BB/9 isn’t high at 3.6, but in AA and AAA it is at 5.0! I’ll pass.
Nunez – looks to be a solid shortstop who can hit around .270 with some speed and I would take him over Brendan Ryan.
Nova – looks like he would either be a solid number 3, or a plus number 4 in a rotation.
Montero – obviously, like Ackley, there’s not much question about whether he can hit. Ackley proved he could field, but the Yankees aren’t very confident in his catching ability. Looks to be a 1B or DH.
That said — although the Mariners need hitting — I wouldn’t make the trade. We don’t need a few pitching prospects who may be the next big thing. I would take Montero and Nunez off of their hands gladly, but those two alone aren’t worth Felix.
What the Mariners need to do this offseason is dangle one of THEIR pitching prospects for some bats. Somebody like Hultzen, Erasmo Ramirez (Imagine the press this kid would have gotten pre-2011 if he was on the Yankees), James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Jose Campos.
Those are just the big named ones, too. How about Stephen Pryor with a 1.19 ERA in AA, Scott Patterson, Jarrett Grube, Mauricio Robles, Andrew Carraway, Anthony Fernandez Willy Kesler (1.45 ERA in A+), Tyler Burgoon, Tony Butler…
Even kids like Furbush and Vasquez could be added as fillers.
The fact of the matter is that the Mariners are absolutely stacked throughout the minors and majors with pitchers, and we NEED to find out which ones are not in our plans and ship them off for somebody before it’s too late.
Not trying to slander the Mariners farm system but notice how most of the pitchers you mentioned are all in the lower levels.
Of course. That’s why we have to trade some before some don’t pan out as well as people outside the system might think they will.
Interesting post…..sort of.
Bets’ prospect rating is a combination of size, stuff and what he’s done over a period of time. It’s not all based soley off of what he did in 2011. Thought that was sort of obvious considering the rankings were based off of pre-2011 stats.
Bans is a legit prospect because of his stuff, makeup, the fact he is a lefty…and oh yeah…20 years old having success at the AA and AAA level.
Then you go on to say…..
“What the Mariners need to do this offseason is dangle one of THEIR pitching prospects for some bats. Somebody like Hultzen, Erasmo Ramirez (Imagine the press this kid would have gotten pre-2011 if he was on the Yankees), James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Jose Campos”.
Hultzen- FYI can’t be traded this offseason because he was just drafted.
Ramirez- The difference between him and Ramirez is that ManBan wasn’t ranked at all (by BA) until AFTER he pitched and had success at A+/AA. Ramirez didn’t pitched above low A in 2010. in 2011 he pitched at AA and AAA and had a combined 4.83 ERA. His FIP is better but he allowed more hits than IP and had a lower K/9. Still time to improve because of his age though.
Walker-Hasn’t pitched above low A but DOES look very good.
Campos- 81 IP @ low A ball. Everything else at the rookie level. Still looks good.
Paxton- Is the only 1 on your list that has pitched above A+ and had success and that was only 39 IP.
Interesting that you question the experts who have scouted and watched Bans and Bets pitch over 140 IP each AA or higher over the last 2 years and yet you dismiss them and gush over your prospects, most of whom haven’t even pitched at A+ yet.
Bans at ages 19 and 20 has pitched 140 IP at the AA/AAA levels and has had levels of success.
Bets at age 23 is close to mlb ready and despite control issues, he still managed to strikeout batters and have stretches of dominance.
Bets and Bans are closer to being mlb ready than most of the guys you mentioned and are listed as top 50 guys for a reason other than the logo on their uniforms.
when i read his comment a few hours ago, i could already hear you typing yours
when i read his comment a few hours ago, i could already hear you typing yours
I’m saying that we need to get rid of some of them while they are still successful while we can still get return, because I know not all of them will pan out as well as they should.
you’re not interested in a 20 year old pitcher who can throw 98+ with a nasty slider on any given day?
you’re not interested in a lefty who’s stuff has been called ace-like?
isthisreallife?
Too bad you did not include the prospects’ ages when presenting your analysis. A pitcher playing in AAA at age 20 is very advanced in his development and appears to be developing at a rapid rate. Rapid development is a very key attribute.
Brett Lawrie was in AA at age 20 with “respectable” stats. However, his rapid development has placed him at MLB level by age 21 with impressive stats.
So, don’t let poor stats from a 20 year old in AAA fool you.
Off-topic but did anyone notice how much BJ Upton hit in September??? .363, Bj’s turning the corner
B.J. saw what Jennings did and realized that he’s not all he thinks he is, most likely.
The Rays are a smart bunch and will trade Shields and Upton this year when their value is high like they did with Garza.
If they keep Shields and Upton they will win the division next year. Without those two they’re a borderline playoff team.
I wouldn’t count on another collapse by the Sox next year, the Rays will be the odd man out if they don’t find some punch for that line up.
I wouldn’t count on another collapse by the Sox next year, the Rays will be the odd man out if they don’t find some punch for that line up.
If they keep Shields and Upton they will win the division next year. Without those two they’re a borderline playoff team.
I’d keep Shields. BJ has worn out his welcome, despite being incident free this year, the Rays can find plenty of suitors for this talented headcase.
I’d keep Shields. BJ has worn out his welcome, despite being incident free this year, the Rays can find plenty of suitors for this talented headcase.
Yep, all because he is in the 2-spot.
Yep, all because he is in the 2-spot.
Mark, I have news for you. Matt Cain will not be traded to the Yankees. End of story.
The Yanks will be agressive in the off season for a #2 or #3 pitcher,either through a trade involving Montero or signing Wilson or Darvish. If they don’t trade Montero they will have him as the DH which will be an upgrade over Posoda. Cashman will also take a hard look at rightfield with either Beltran, DeJesus, or Kubel.
I don’t get this discontent towards Swisher. He had a better year than all 3 of those guys and is much more durable than Beltran.
The Yanks will be agressive in the off season for a #2 or #3 pitcher,either through a trade involving Montero or signing Wilson or Darvish. If they don’t trade Montero they will have him as the DH which will be an upgrade over Posoda. Cashman will also take a hard look at rightfield with either Beltran, DeJesus, or Kubel.
I love that the Yankees are so blinded by espn’s over exaggeration of their lame prospects that they think they can just get any player they want. Same think happened with Joba, that went so far that they even tricked themselves into keeping him cause they thought he was so good.
Matt Cain? Are you kidding me this is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball for a DH prospect unbelievable. When I first heard there was a Cain Yankees rumor I assumed it was for Robinson Cano and still wasn’t for it. Montero? Please.
your crazy the giants would drool if they were offered cano
Cain will be a free agent in 2013.
Right …………because the only “expert” analysis that favored the Yanks prospects were those on the ESPN dime and the Yanks as well as all other Gms take their que from what ESPN says. You’re so lame. It kills me how every other teams prospect evaluations outside the organization are valid except for those directed towards prospects wearing a Yankee uniform.
So according to you, Baseball America, Johnathon Mayo, John Sickels, etc are ALL influenced by ESPN and every GM that demanded Montero, Bets and Bans were influenced by ESPN too? Right……..