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Giants Notes: Baer, Zito, 2012 Payroll, San Jose

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Bill Neukom officially announced that he will retire from his position as the Giants' CEO at the end of the season, according to a press release from the club.  Current team president and COO Laurence Baer will officially take over as the Giants' new CEO on January 1, 2012.  Here are a few of the hot stove-related items from Baer's introductory press conference today at AT&T Park, plus some other links related to the transition….

  • Baer said he wants Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to remain as the Giants' GM and manager, respectively, reports Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News.  Sabean and Bochy are both under contract only through 2012, though both have been expected to receive extensions given the team's World Series title last year.  Kawakami also speculates about the "dysfunction at the highest levels" that led to Neukom's retirement and guesses the Giants will be operate "much more like a corporation than before."
  • Baer said the Giants' payroll next season "won't go down" from what the team spent in 2011, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, though Baer didn't say if payroll would rise, either.  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Giants' 2011 payroll was a little over $118MM.  The club has a few notable contracts coming off the books (Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa) but if the payroll doesn't rise, that will take the Giants out of the running for a top free agent like Prince Fielder.
  • Also via a tweet from Shea, Baer didn't elaborate on Barry Zito's future in San Francisco, other than to say that players under contract for 2012 should be expected to be with the team next year.
  • The Giants are just switching CEOs, not ownership, so Major League Baseball doesn't have any leverage that would allow it to force the Giants to drop their objection to the A's moving to San Jose, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (both Twitter links).

Quick Hits: Wilson, White Sox, Cubs, Fielder

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Links for Thursday, before the Rays visit the Red Sox for a four-game series that's critical to the American League Wild Card race…

  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker hears that Yu Darvish is undecided on whether it's the right time for him to join an MLB team. The Japanese right-hander could be available via the posting system this offseason.
  • C.J. Wilson, who will hit free agency this winter, likes pitching under pressure in September, T.R. Sullivan writes at MLB.com. The Rangers left-hander has lowered his ERA (3.01) and walk rate (2.9 BB/9) this year, setting a career-high in innings pitched (209) with an improved strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) and an All-Star berth.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears from someone close to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen that there’s just a 10% chance the skipper will return to Chicago next year. Though Guillen is under contract in Chicago, he appears to be tiring of his current role and his relationship with GM Kenny Williams appears “unsalvageable,” Rosenthal reports.
  • There’s almost no chance that the Cubs will have their next GM in place by the end of the month, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Morosi hears from one agent who expects the Cubs to try to get “the biggest name they can," and goes on to discuss some of the high-profile candidates who have been linked to the job.
  • Jon Heyman of SI.com suggests the Orioles, Rangers or Dodgers could sign Prince Fielder this offseason (Twitter link).

Jacoby Ellsbury’s Arbitration Case

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A year ago, Jacoby Ellsbury had nearly as many trips to the disabled list (three) as he did extra base hits (four), which tells you much of what you need to know about his season. It’s hard to imagine a more complete turnaround for the 28-year-old, who might be the American League’s MVP in 2011.

Jacoby Ellsbury

The increase in productivity foreshadows an offseason raise for Ellsbury, who will be arbitration eligible for the second time after the season. He earns $2.4MM this year and, as you might imagine, stands to earn much more through arbitration in 2012 and 2013 before hitting free agency after the ’13 campaign.

How much more? Let’s start by examining the case of Hunter Pence, a similar player who’s ahead of Ellsbury in terms of service time. Pence earned a $3.4MM raise last offseason after putting together a solid season in 2010.

Two weeks' worth of games remain this year, yet it’s already clear that Ellsbury’s platform season blows Pence’s away (see note 1). From a career standpoint, Ellsbury is comparable to where Pence was a year ago (see note 2).

With far better platform numbers and comparable career numbers, it won’t be hard for agent Scott Boras to argue that Ellsbury deserves a raise that exceeds the $3.4MM boost Pence obtained a year ago. In that sense, Pence’s raise is a springboard for Ellsbury.

Our latest projections have Ellsbury making $6.8MM next season, which would represent a $4.4MM raise (though it would fall short of Pence’s current $6.9MM salary). Ellsbury could earn significantly more than $6.8MM if he brings in lots of offseason hardware and no award would affect his bank account like the MVP.

Last year’s winner, Josh Hamilton, did not end up going to arbitration, but we have a sense of how his hearing would have gone from the numbers filed by his agency and the Rangers. Boras, who will no doubt mention Hamilton, will be careful in bringing filing numbers up, since arbitrators view them differently than actual, agreed upon salaries (see note 3). Hamilton filed for $12MM last year and the Rangers countered at $8.7MM, conceding that Hamilton’s MVP season had earned him a raise of at least $5.45MM (see note 4).

Jose Bautista, who emerged as one of the game’s best players last year, earned $2.4MM during his breakout year – exactly what Ellsbury earns this year. Like Hamilton, Bautista signed an extension before going to an arbitration hearing, though he completed the deal after the Blue Jays offered $7.6MM in arbitration. In other words, the Dominican slugger was headed for a worst-case-scenario raise of $5.2MM.

Hamilton and Bautista showed that players can overcome low career totals in arbitration with a huge platform year, but Ellsbury’s history won’t be forgotten. The Red Sox could point out Ellsbury’s shortcomings when it comes to length and consistency of career contribution if the sides go to a hearing.

He was limited to 18 games last year after fracturing his ribs in an April collision with Adrian Beltre and had three separate stints on the disabled list. While Boras might argue that the injury was fluky and doesn’t present long-term concerns, he wouldn’t debate that it will limit his client’s negotiating power (see note 5).

To match the raises Texas and Toronto offered their respective stars last winter, Boston would have to offer a 2012 salary in the $7.5-8MM range. Boras, of course, could file for considerably more. It’s early and Ellsbury’s earning potential depends on the season’s final two weeks, the playoffs and postseason award voting. Even at this point, we can safely say that he’s headed for a salary that exceeds $6MM. Millions more than that are within Ellsbury's grasp, not that the Red Sox are complaining.

Notes:

1 – Ellsbury already has more homers (27 vs. 25), more RBI (94 vs. 91), more runs (109 vs. 93), more stolen bases (36 vs. 18) a higher average (.320 vs .282), a better on-base percentage (.379 vs. .325) and a better slugging percentage (.544 vs. .461) than Pence posted in 2010. Ellsbury was an All-Star (Pence was not) and will collect MVP votes (Pence did not).

2 – Both have a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting and one All-Star selection. Pence had more homers (92 vs. 47), RBI (315 vs. 224) and a better slugging percentage (.481 vs. .446). Ellsbury has more runs (330 vs. 304), more stolen bases (172 vs. 54) a higher average (.300 vs. .287) and a better on-base percentage (.355 vs. .336). It’s also worth noting that Ellsbury has 22 games of postseason experience (.261/.316/.391 line with 5 steals) and a World Series ring, while Pence has never appeared in the playoffs.

3 – Similarly, the Red Sox have to be careful about pointing to the salaries Hamilton ($7.25MM) and Jose Bautista ($8MM) are earning in 2011, since the salaries are part of carefully structured mutliyear deals.

4 – Hamilton won a batting title and led the league in slugging percentage and OPS, but Ellsbury doesn’t lead the league in any traditional stats (he leads all of baseball in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement – not that there’s precedent for WAR convincing panels of arbitrators).

5 – If Ellsbury signs an extension – the Red Sox would like to lock him up – the discussion shifts once again, since the sides would have to value multiple future seasons instead of just one. It’s early but MLBTR projects that Ellsbury's salary could rise as high as $13MM in 2013, his last year before hitting the open market.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Matt Swartz contributed analysis to this post.

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Logan Morrison Files Grievance Against Marlins

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Logan Morrison filed a grievance against the Marlins after they demoted him last month, Amy K. Nelson of ESPN.com reports. Though the Marlins have maintained that they demoted the 24-year-old left fielder for baseball reasons, Morrison and agent Fred Wray are arguing that the demotion was a form of discipline without just cause.

"I'm doing this because I'm standing up for what's right," Morrison told Nelson. "If I thought it was because of my performance on the field, then I wouldn't be filing a grievance."

Morrison missed an event with Marlins season ticket holders before his demotion and not long afterwards Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said that the outspoken Morrison needed to learn more about "being a Major Leaguer." Morrison, who spent ten days in the minors, filed the grievance on August 25th, according to Nelson.

Morrison wants big league pay for the time he spent in the minors, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (on Twitter). He can still obtain a full year of service time in 2011, so the demotion didn't affect his path to arbitration or free agency.

A’s Notes: Willingham, Wuertz, Harden

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Though the A’s aren’t going to discuss possible deals with their free agents until the season ends, Susan Slusser previews the club’s decisions at the San Francisco Chronicle:

  • Josh Willingham has said that he'd like to return to Oakland, according to Slusser. The 32-year-old, who established career highs in homers and RBI this year, projects as a Type A free agent in our latest rankings.
  • Michael Wuertz told Slusser that he has recovered completely from the thumb injury that sidelined him in August. The A's have a $3.25MM option ($250K buyout) for Wuertz in 2012 and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes gets the sense that they'll decline it.
  • Harden likes pitching in Oakland under pitching coach Ron Romanick so he could re-sign there this offseason if he’s healthy and the A’s are interested. Harden doesn't project as a ranked free agent, so compensatory draft picks won't be a consideration.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains that MLB remains desperate for a solution to Oakland's stadium issues, more than two years after establishing a committee to study the situation.

GM Candidate: De Jon Watson

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MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Dodgers executive De Jon Watson. 

Twenty five years ago, De Jon Watson appeared to have a future as a Major League first baseman. The former third rounder’s professional playing career ended long ago, but Watson has become a different kind of prospect – an MLB general manager candidate.

Watson, 45, is responsible for the Dodgers’ player development as an assistant GM to Ned Colletti. He got into scouting with the Marlins once his five-year minor league playing career ended. After the Marlins won the 1997 World Series, Watson went to Cincinnati, where he was the Reds’ scouting director for three seasons. The California native joined Ohio’s other team in 2004 as their pro scouting director before arriving in Los Angeles. 

Watson’s current role includes hiring minor league coaches, overseeing Latin American player development and providing input on Major League transactions. The Diamondbacks interviewed him for their general manager opening last fall and his peers say he could soon become a GM.

I spoke with him yesterday about scouting, drafting and stats. Here are some highlights:

On transitioning from playing to scouting:

Players are already scouts, because you’re already scouting your competition – who you’re playing against, the pitcher you’re facing, what he brings to the table. A lot of [minor league playing experience] helped when it came to the scouting side. I played with some really good players along the way who went on to the big leagues and you looked at their skill-sets. That helped formulate my thoughts and ideas on the scouting side.

On drafting Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and B.J. Ryan during his tenure as the Reds’ scouting director:

It was really a challenge in itself to come into a new organization, not really knowing everyone there and trying to get the guys on board with what you’re trying to do from and organizational standpoint and be aggressive with the kind of player we were trying to procure at that time. It was fun.

You look at Kearns, you look at Dunn, you look at B.J. Ryan, you look at some of the athletes that we were able to acquire in ’99 and 2000, there were some bodies and some athletes. We were looking for some power arms and power bats at that time.

On mentors in the game:

[Scout and executive] Gary Hughes on the scouting side, [Tigers president and GM] Dave Dombrowski, [Braves GM] Frank Wren and [Indians president] Mark Shapiro from the front office and executive side. Bill Lajoie [a longtime MLB scout and executive] before he passed away was unbelievable as far as going back and picking his brain and getting some thoughts on how to put together an overall program from a player development standpoint.

I’ve worked with guys here [in Los Angeles] – [longtime manager] Tommy Lasorda, [former player] Tommy Davis, [former player] Don Newcombe, [veteran scout and executive] Ralph Avila, getting to pick Sandy Koufax’s brain. When you’re putting together actual programs and you’re talking about the ‘Dodger Way’ and how it was done, my resources are limitless.

On when to use stats and when to ignore them:

Everyone uses them. We all use them to a certain degree. When you’re talking about the amateur side, I’m not sure you can find a lot of balanced stats when you’re talking about a high school kid in a small town. Austin Kearns, for example, from Lexington, KY, who’s he’s matching up against, really? I think it’s a little harder on the amateur side, but there are stats on the pro side that you can use to help you. They show how guys are trending, if they’re going up or down.

On the possibility of becoming a GM:

It’s an honor to have your name considered. The opportunity to speak with the Diamondbacks last year was really cool. I’ve been very fortunate and I’m comfortable doing what I’m doing right now. If an opportunity arises for me to sit down and talk to someone about being a general manager, that’d be great. But I don’t feel like it’s my life goal or calling by any stretch of the imagination. I just enjoy working in the game and working as a team to try to build something that’s really strong.

NL Central Notes: Fielder, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates

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The Brewers have a 99.8% chance of going to the postseason and the Cardinals have a 4.5% chance of advancing, according to Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds report. Meanwhile, the Astros, Cubs and Pirates are setting themselves up for top ten picks in next year's draft. Here's the latest from the NL Central…

GM Candidate: John Coppolella

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MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced the MLB executives who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces.

It's time to get acquainted with Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella.  John worked his way from the ground up in baseball, landing an unpaid internship with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in 1997.  By the time John graduated from Notre Dame he had an Angels internship in his pocket as well, and that led to a couple of positions with the Yankees.  John joined the Braves' front office five years ago and currently has a hand in player evaluations, acquisitions, and contracts.  

I recently exchanged emails with John covering a wide range of topics, many of which follow up on comments he made in a Baseball Prospectus chat last month.

Which people have served as mentors for you in baseball?

At the Yankees it was Brian Cashman, Mark Newman, Kim Ng, Damon Oppenheimer, Gordon Blakeley, and Billy Connors.  Damon taught me a lot about scouting and got me to spend less time on the computer and more time in the stands.  At the Braves it was and continues to be John Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Jim Fregosi, and Paul Snyder.  I consider John to be the best GM in the history of the game while Frank and Bruce are extremely bright and hard-working leaders who have helped me grow and provided me with opportunities.

How has your job description changed with the promotion to director of professional scouting?

Not at all.  Like Frank said it was more a case of having my title match my job description.  I still continue to lead our analytics department, statistical efforts, and arbitration research, but the most important work I do is with our scouts.  All of that work ties in with waivers, free agency signings, etc, and helps me assist Frank and Bruce in all facets of baseball operations.

You've called the current arbitration system "terrible."  Can you elaborate?

It’s a flawed system that leaves both parties unhappy.  I’ve done dozens of deals and don’t feel great about any of them, but I feel even worse about the process.  A couple of years ago Bruce and I were getting ready to pull two of our players out of big league spring training so we could fly them across the country to Phoenix in order for them to attend a hearing where they would hear us berate their performances in an effort to take money out of their pockets.  The cases got settled, but neither player is still in the Braves organization.

Assuming the current arbitration system stays in place, do you envision a day, perhaps five years from now, when advanced statistics will help one side win a hearing?

Arbitration is a complete crapshoot.  Either side – club or player – could make a compelling case and still lose based upon the whims of an arbitration panel that knows very little about baseball.

Do you have any ideas on changes that could eliminate the manuevering some teams do to prevent top prospects from getting Super Two status?

I don’t think a perfect system exists.  I would be lying if I said I didn’t think some clubs tried to prevent prospects from getting Super Two status, but I think it’s overstated.  Teams need to win games, otherwise the management team holding these players back will themselves be held accountable.  We all need to win and I know at the Braves we have never held somebody back because it might save us a few million dollars a few years down the line.

You recently mentioned Brooks Conrad, Jose Constanza, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristian Martinez as minor league signings/waiver claims of which you're most proud.  Can you elaborate?

All of these waiver claims and minor league signings make me proud because it shows the great work our scouts are doing for the Braves.  A week ago we closed out a doubleheader sweep of the Mets in New York with Cristhian Martinez, Eric O’Flaherty, and Anthony Varvaro, all three of whom were claimed off waivers.  Dom Chiti and Jeff Wren pushed hard for Martinez.  Fregosi and Dick Balderson pushed hard for O’Flaherty and Varvaro.  Tim Conroy pushed hard for Constanza.  All of us talk about these players and Frank makes the final decision, but we are all part of the process, and I feel like we have had more success in these markets than any other team in baseball.

You've mentioned how the next Cubs GM will be entering a challenging situation.  What would be your approach to fixing the club?  Do you think the Cubs should use 2012 as a rebuilding year, despite the size of their fan base?

I don’t feel comfortable commenting on how other clubs should approach the construction of their club.  Our focus at the Braves is on getting into the playoffs, advancing as far as possible, and putting together another great club for 2012.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Millwood, Cameron

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The Tigers extended their winning streak to 12 games with a comeback victory against the White Sox today. Here are this evening's links…

  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that scouting director Tim Wilken is scheduled to meet with Cubs ownership about an extension similar to the four-year deal farm director Oneri Fleita recently signed. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry recently met with commissioner Bud Selig and could resurface in a high-profile job before long, according to Wittenmyer.
  • MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided the latest Cubs updates this morning and we heard later in the day that the Reds intend to keep Walt Jocketty in Cincinnati.
  • Kevin Millwood told Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post that he hopes to pitch in the Major Leagues again next year. Rockies manager Jim Tracy says he can imagine Millwood returning to the organization in 2012.
  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald hears that the Marlins released Mike Cameron after he got into a "verbal altercation" with a flight attendant that prompted the charter company to complain.

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