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Archives for September 2011

Cubs Or Retirement For Kerry Wood

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Kerry Wood, out for the rest of 2011 with a torn meniscus in his left knee, told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago that he will retire if the Cubs aren't interested in bringing him back in 2012. Wood, who intends to undergo surgery next week before beginning a six-week long recovery process, turned down more lucrative offers to return to Chicago on a one-year, $1.5MM contract last offseason.

The Cubs selected Wood in the first round of the 1995 draft and he has since developed strong ties in Chicago, where his family started the Wood Family Foundation this summer. In 51 innings of work, he posted a 3.35 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 35.8% ground ball rate this year. The two-time All-Star is still just 34, so he figures to have more innings in him if his health holds up.

Since the Cubs have yet to appoint a permanent GM, there's no guarantee that the team would like to have Wood back, but it's hard to imagine that there wouldn't be some mutual interest.

D’Backs Designate Tommy Manzella For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have designated infielder Tommy Manzella for assignment to create roster space for top pitching prospect Jarrod Parker. The D'Backs have 32 players on their active roster and their 40-man roster remains full.

Arizona claimed Manzella off of waivers in August, after the Astros designated him for assignment. The 28-year-old reported to Triple-A Reno and appeared in 22 games for the D'Backs' top affiliate. In 485 plate appearances for two Triple-A teams, Manzella hit .232/.315/.351 with eight home runs and 11 stolen bases this season.

Parker, a 2007 first round pick, entered the season as the #33 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. The 6'1" right-hander has the "stuff to become an ace," according to Baseball America, which placed him first among D'Backs prospects before the season. Parker pitched well in his first full year since undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of 2009. He posted a 3.79 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings at Double-A Mobile in '11.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cody Ross

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Cody Ross would have been better off hitting free agency last year, after the Giants won the World Series and Ross hit five postseason home runs on his way to winning the NLCS MVP. It's not that his season numbers are that different this year, but Ross would have had some buzz if he had hit free agency after his strong finish and postseason heroics in 2010. This year, San Francisco will in all likelihood miss the playoffs, so there's no way for Ross to supplement his pedestrian season stats.

Cody Ross

The 30-year-old outfielder has a .240/.325/.405 line with 14 homers in 461 plate appearances for the Giants this year, not far off of the .269/.322/.413 line and 14 homers he had for the Marlins and Giants a year ago. Yet Ross no longer seems critical to the Giants’ success, as he did a year ago.

To his credit, Ross raised his walk rate to a career-best 10.6% in 2011 and played all three outfield positions, marking the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has appeared in left, center and right.

Though he hoped for a long-term extension with the Giants as recently as this spring, reality has since set in. The Giants seem unlikely to offer Ross a raise from his current $6.3MM salary or sign off on a multiyear deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. 

If the Giants are indeed hesitant to pay Ross more than $6.3MM, they may decide against offering arbitration after the season. Ross projects as a Type B free agent, which means San Francisco would obtain a top pick in next year’s draft if the New Mexico native declines their offer and signs elsewhere. 

Given Ross’ free agent prospects, he could receive encouragement from his representatives at SFX to accept should the Giants offer arbitration. If they don’t offer arbitration, he would appear to be in line for a one-year Major League deal on the open market. He has had enough success in his career, particularly against left-handers (career .912 OPS), for teams to guarantee him a few million dollars and a roster spot, but his luster has disappeared, so a multiyear deal would now be a coup for Ross and his agency.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Heyman On Fielder, Rollins, Madson

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his column by ranking the favorites for Prince Fielder, putting the Brewers sixth while noting that owner Mark Attanasio "should never be counted out and is expected to make one final run" to retain his slugger.  Heyman's other notes:

  • The Phillies "very much" want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Heyman thinks the Phillies are willing to do a three-year contract while Rollins is expected to seek four or five.  Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .268/.338/.395 in 582 plate appearances this year.  UZR continues to rate his defense as above average, and it seems likely Rollins will score an eight-figure salary for the first time in his career.
  • The Red Sox "are thought to have interest" in Phillies closer Ryan Madson.  Madson, a 31-year-old Scott Boras client, has a 2.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, and 50% groundball rate in 56 2/3 innings this year.  Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained that Madson will probably cost another team a draft pick, but a three-year deal appears likely.  In March, Madson said he wanted to finish his career with the Phillies.

 

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Rangers face one of the more sizeable arbitration classes we've encountered so far in the American League.  Blanco could be cut if the Rangers don't want to guarantee him a roster spot, though we're estimating only about $500K for his salary.  Lewis' $3.25MM club option is a slam dunk, as we're estimating a $6MM salary if he goes to arbitration.

Napoli's fantastic offensive year should push his salary to the $8.5MM range.  Cruz has again battled injuries, but he's in line for a healthy $6MM salary.  Deadline acquisition Mike Adams is looking at about $4.3MM in his last year before free agency.  Andrus, Harrison, and Murphy fall within the $2.6-3.2MM range, while relievers Lowe and O'Day project for $1.3-1.4MM.

All told the Rangers have a pretty expensive group, at an estimated $30MM not including Lewis and Blanco.  They have about $101MM in commitments for next year once you add Lewis and Yoshinori Tateyama but before minimum salary players are included.  That'd mark the Rangers' first foray past the $100MM mark since the Alex Rodriguez days, so you can see that simply squeezing in C.J. Wilson might require GM Jon Daniels to move some pieces around.  On the other hand, attendance is up over 5,000 tickets per game this year and payroll figures to be on the rise.

Tsuyoshi Wada Eyeing MLB

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Southbank southpaw Tsuyoshi Wada owns a 1.80 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2/0 BB/9, and 0.41 HR/9 on the season.  According to NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman, Wada recently reached the service time requirement for free agent eligibility and "is widely expected to make a run at an MLB contract this offseason."

Wada, 31 in February, is a Dallas Braden type with "a 86-87 mph fastball, a good circle change, and a solid slider," in the opinion of Newman.  Newman's biggest concern is whether Wada could handle the innings required of an MLB starting pitcher.

In an email exchange, Newman guessed that teams might view a two-year deal in the $8MM range as a reasonable risk for Wada this offseason.  Wada may be viewed by some as a reliever, though the pitcher's view on his role is not known.  Wada ought to generate decent interest this offseason, though the bigger name pitchers coming out of Japan will be Hisashi Iwakuma and perhaps Yu Darvish.

Your Poll Performance

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It's always interesting to see what MLBTR readers think in our polls, especially with thousands of votes coming in.  Looking through four February 2011 polls, how have you done?

How Many $100 Million Contracts?

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By my count, seventeen $100MM+ contracts have been signed in free agency, making an exception to include the $103MM commitment required by the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Here's the breakdown for recent offseasons:

For the 2011-12 offseason, will we see a return to the crazy money of 2006-07?  We've got a trio of $100MM locks with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Sabathia.  As with the better $100MM contracts in baseball history, these three are current superstars.  However, three additional players could tip the scales and give us as many as six $100MM deals this winter: Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish.

Reyes and Wilson may fall short – I could certainly see them in the $90MM range.  With Darvish it's more a question of whether he's posted, because five years later I do think he'd match or exceed the Dice-K expenditure. 

It's your turn: out of Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Reyes, Wilson, and Darvish, how many $100MM+ expenditures do you expect for the 2011-12 offseason?

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Aardsma and Rodriguez are the primary non-tender candidates.  Aardsma's salary in arbitration would remain close to $4.5MM and can't go below $3.6MM.  Since he had Tommy John surgery in July, that wouldn't be good value.  Rodriguez is a $700K type player, but he hasn't done anything noteworthy this year.  Kelley also projects for $700K.  Fully recovered from Tommy John, I think the Mariners will keep him around for 2012.

Vargas and League should each land in the $4.2-4.5MM range for 2012.  They're both trade candidates, especially League having saved 34 games and counting.

If Kelley, Vargas, and League are retained, that should add around $9.4MM to the team's commitments, bringing the total to about $69MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  That'd be about $26MM short of the 2011 payroll, so the team has flexibility.

Free Agent Stock Watch: David DeJesus

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When the Athletics acquired David DeJesus last winter, the outfielder's stock was at a high. Although he appeared in only 91 games in 2010, DeJesus posted career highs in average (.318), OBP (.384), and OPS (.827), and played his usual solid corner outfield defense. Unfortunately for the A's, DeJesus has followed up that performance with perhaps the worst season of his career. In 125 games with Oakland, the 31-year-old has hit .236/.322/.369, his OPS dropping nearly 140 points from a year ago.

AAH110506105_Athletics_v_Royals It's likely little consolation to the A's that the main piece they traded for DeJesus, young right-hander Vin Mazzaro, took a step back this year in Kansas City. Mazzaro still has time to turn things around for the Royals, while DeJesus figures to become a free agent in a matter of weeks.

As our latest Elias projections show, DeJesus comfortably ranks as a Type B, so he won't cost a draft pick even if he turns down arbitration. Of course, with a salary of $6MM this year, DeJesus might be a good bet to accept an arbitration offer, given this season's performance. The payroll-conscious A's could probably only offer arb to the outfielder if he agreed to decline it in order to net them a draft pick. Either way, DeJesus figures to hit the open market.

This year's class of outfielders isn't particularly stacked, so despite his down year, DeJesus should draw interest. His batting average on balls in play (.271) is 45 points below his career mark, and his walk rate (9.1%) matches a career high, suggesting that he's a candidate to bounce back. It wouldn't be the first time he came back strong after a disappointing year – he followed up a subpar 2007 season (.722 OPS) by hitting .307/.366/.452 in 2008.

So what sort of contract could make sense for both DeJesus and an interested team? Carlos Pena's deal with the Cubs could be an interesting comparison. The two are very different players, and DeJesus won't earn the $10MM the Cubs are paying Pena for a year of his services, but their career trajectories are similar. Pena entered free agency for the first time last year coming off his worst season, and elected to sign a one-year deal, presumably in hopes of rebuilding his value and landing a multiyear contract this coming winter. The approach seems to have worked – Pena's OPS has jumped 100 points in Chicago this season, setting him up nicely for the offseason.

For DeJesus, a one-year deal playing in a better hitter's park than Oakland's could be the most effective way to rebuild his value and earn a bigger payday down the road. Given the outfielder's promising peripheral numbers, the team that signs him could very well be getting solid value for 2012.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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