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Who Could Be Released This Month?

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With certain contracts, there comes a time when a team would prefer to pay the player to go away and free up a roster spot.  For example, two years ago the Tigers ate $14MM in releasing Gary Sheffield and the Phillies assumed $8MM to let Geoff Jenkins go.  Here's a look at some big money players who I think stand a chance of being cut this month.

  • Oliver Perez, Mets: one year, $12MM.  A team insider told ESPN's Adam Rubin three days ago that Perez is highly likely to be released.  Today Perez allowed three runs in the first inning of a split-squad game and followed that with a couple of scoreless frames.
  • Luis Castillo, Mets: one year, $6MM.  Rubin wrote that Castillo "appears destined for the same fate" as Perez, despite the team's unsettled second base situation.
  • Carlos Silva, Cubs: one year, $13.5MM.  The Cubs are only on the hook for $8MM to Silva this year, as they're receiving $5.5MM from Seattle.  The Cubs' last two rotation spots are too early to call, but if Silva continues to pitch poorly in his next few outings and isn't amenable to long relief, the Cubs might have to let him go.
  • Armando Galarraga, Diamondbacks: one year, $2.3MM.  The D'Backs would only be on the hook for roughly $380K if they release Galarraga by the 15th, whereas Zach Duke's salary is guaranteed.  If Aaron Heilman or Barry Enright makes the rotation, Galarraga or Duke would have to slide to the bullpen or be released.
  • Barry Zito, Giants: three years, $64.5MM.  Most teams would be thrilled with a low 4.00s ERA from their fifth starter, so the idea of releasing Zito was strange from the start.
  • Aaron Rowand, Giants: two years, $24MM.  The Giants have a crowded outfield, and cutting Rowand makes sense.  They've also got Nate Schierholtz, who is out of options.
  • Milton Bradley, Mariners: one year, $12MM.  Bradley's legal issues aside, Spring Training seems to be going well enough for him.  He's even playing center field today.  This one is hard to call right now.
  • Danys Baez, Phillies: one year, $2.75MM.  Baez had a rough first year for the Phillies, but he can probably squeeze his way onto the Opening Day roster.
  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates: one year, $5.6MM.  Doumit isn't generating much trade interest, but releasing him would be a last resort and probably won't be necessary prior to Opening Day.

Quick Hits: Rockies, Pagan, Phillies

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Links for Tuesday, as fans receive good news on Justin Morneau and concerning news on Carlos Beltran…

March Trading

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March trading typically involves out of options players, former top prospects, and spare parts, but these players can have a major impact.  Here's a look at the players acquired via trade during this month over the last few years, with the help of MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.

2010

2009

  • Sergio Santos (Giants), Chris Stewart (Yankees), Luke Gregerson (Padres), Eulogio de la Cruz (Padres), Curtis Thigpen (Athletics), Ronny Paulino (Giants and Marlins), Hector Correa (Giants), Jack Taschner (Phillies), Chris Burke (Mariners), Rudy Darrow (Braves), Josh Anderson (Tigers), Jeff Keppinger (Astros)
  • The Giants' 2009 acquisition of Santos is an interesting story.  According to Yahoo's Jeff Passan, he was dealt to San Francisco with the caveat that if the Giants couldn't play Santos every day as a shortstop, they'd send him back to Chicago to start a conversion to pitching.  He was indeed traded back to the Sox on April 1st and made the team out of Spring Training the following year, tossing 51 2/3 innings of 2.96 ball with 56 strikeouts in 2010.
  • Gregerson was sent to the Padres to complete the December '08 Khalil Greene deal with the Cardinals.  Clearly that pickup was a big win for Kevin Towers.  Paulino, Taschner, Anderson, and Keppinger also spent significant time in the bigs in '09.

2008

  • Henry Arias (Reds), Brad Salmon (Royals), Mike McCoy (Orioles), Justin Huber (Padres), Todd Redmond (Braves), Tyler Yates (Pirates), Ramon Ramirez (Royals), Jose Marte (Diamondbacks), Dustin Nippert (Rangers), Jair Fernandez (Twins), R.A. Dickey (Mariners), Matt Kata (Pirates)
  • Yates, Nippert, and Dickey spent significant time in the Majors in '08.  Dickey landed with the Mets as a free agent in December of '09 after a stint with the Twins, and took off with a 2.84 ERA in 174 1/3 innings.
  • The Royals acquired Ramirez from the Rockies in March of '08, sending Jorge de la Rosa to the Rockies a month later to complete the deal.  De La Rosa's career took off with the Rockies, culminating in a $32.5MM deal in November of last year.  The Royals sent Ramirez to the Red Sox in November of '08 for Coco Crisp.  Crisp might have been a solid acquisition for Kansas City, but shoulder surgery interrupted his season.

Ng Leaving Dodgers For MLB Job

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10:42am: Ng still hopes to become a GM one day, she told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times.  She also said that the Dodgers' ownership turmoil was not a factor in her decision to leave.  Her 13-year stint with the Dodgers will run through Opening Day.

7:50am: A couple of former GM candidates are now working under Joe Torre in MLB's restructured baseball operations department.  Dodgers vice president and assistant GM Kim Ng is leaving the club to become MLB's senior vice president of baseball operations, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.  And former Diamondbacks assistant GM Peter Woodfork will also work under Torre, reported Bill Madden of the New York Daily News yesterday.  Both Ng and Woodfork have interviewed for GM jobs in the past.

Word came recently that MLB was firing VP of umpiring Mike Port, VP of administration Ed Burns, and senior specialist of on-field operations Darryl Hamilton in what Madden's MLB source called a "bloodbath."  Madden says Woodfork's main responsibilities will be with umpires, while Ng's will be player-related.  Madden notes that the changes shouldn't be seen as Torre's moves, as they were in the works before his hiring.

Trade Candidate: Jo-Jo Reyes

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The Blue Jays have four out of options players with less than five years of big league service time, according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm: Rajai Davis, Dustin McGowan, David Purcey, and Jo-Jo Reyes.  Davis and Purcey are expected to make the team and McGowan will start the year on the DL, leaving Reyes as the one member of this group who is on the bubble for Toronto.

As Chisholm explained on February 28th, Reyes is currently part of a four-man battle for the last two spots in the Blue Jays' rotation, along with Jesse Litsch, Marc Rzepczynski and Kyle Drabek.  Reyes could wind up in the bullpen instead.  The Blue Jays risk losing Reyes if they can't find a spot for him on the 25-man roster, as he's out of options.  Reyes struggled in his first Spring Training appearance, but pitched well on Saturday with three scoreless innings.

Reyes, 26, was acquired by the Blue Jays from the Braves in the July Yunel Escobar trade.  Baseball America regarded him as the Braves' eighth-best prospect heading into the 2007 season, calling him a "thick-bodied lefthander who does a good job of keeping hitters off balance."  Reyes has only 194 big league innings to his credit, as he's dealt with injuries and command and control problems. 

One team exec I spoke to feels that Reyes would not clear waivers, as a lefty with decent stuff.  He doesn't think it will come to that, as the Blue Jays can probably find a trade partner if they don't have a spot for the southpaw.

Madson Hopes To Remain With Phillies

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Scott Boras clients don't always chase the last dollar on the open market, as evidenced by reliever Ryan Madson's three-year, $12MM extension signed in January of 2009.  Madson was entering his walk year after turning in 82 2/3 innings of 3.05 ball for the Phillies in 2008, and Boras was reportedly in favor of Madson taking the deal to provide security for his family.

Madson remains one of the best set-up men in the game, posting perhaps the best numbers of his career in 2010 despite missing time for a broken toe suffered after kicking a chair.  He'll earn $4.5MM plus incentives in the final year of his contract.  At 31 years old in August, you'd expect a Scott Downs-type offer being required just to start the conversation with Boras about Madson.

Madson has a couple of goals, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer: he wants to finish his career with the Phillies, and he'd like an opportunity to close.  Gelb believes there is probably room in the Phillies' payroll for Madson and Brad Lidge, but not both, after this season.  Regarding Madson's career success rate of 45% in converting save opportunities, GM Ruben Amaro said, "He hasn't proven it yet.  We think he has the stuff to do it."

The Phillies have not been shy about taking care of business ahead of time, so perhaps Madson is a candidate for a $6MM a year extension along the lines of Matt Thornton.  Thornton, however, is four years older than Madson, so there's a case for the latter to get at least three guaranteed years.

Jays, Brewers Head List Of Dominican Signings

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The Dominican Prospect League has announced several more signings:

  • The Blue Jays signed 17-year-old outfielder Francisco Tejada for $150K.  With the move, all 30 teams have signed a player out of the DPL.  The press release refers to Tejada's "high athletic ceiling," citing his speed and arm.
  • The Brewers inked 17-year-old third baseman Estervin Matos for $100K after a strong offensive performance in the DPL.
  • Additionally, the Mets signed righty Miguel Angel Bautista for $10K, the Nationals signed righty Deury Vazquez for $30K, and the Diamondbacks signed American-born middle infielder Jesse Liriano for $10K.

Mariners Sign James Paxton

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It took a year and a half, but James Paxton finally got paid. The Mariners announced the signing of the 2010 fourth round pick and, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, the deal is worth $942.5K (Twitter links) 

The Blue Jays selected Paxton 37th overall in the first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't sign him. The left-hander turned down slot money (approximately $874K), according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (on Twitter). Paxton spent the 2010 season with the Grand Prairie AirHogs of the independent American Association after the NCAA ruled that he wasn’t eligible to resume his college career at the University of Kentucky. 

Though most draftees have to sign by the middle of August, the deadline doesn’t apply to college seniors or players drafted out of independent leagues. ESPN.com's Keith Law first reported that the sides were close to a deal and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times first reported the agreement.

Quick Hits: Choice, Royals, Feliz, Posey, Lawrie

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If you're a fan of top prospects and rookies, then this Quick Hits post is for you. Here are today's links…

  • Oakland's 2010 first rounder, Michael Choice, is wowing scouts in Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Peter Gammons of MLB Network hears from a trusted scout that Choice has the bat speed, strength and athleticism to become a "monster" (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked the 21-year-old third among Oakland's prospects heading into the season.
  • One GM says the Royals are so deep in talent that they can still be in it in 2013 if a couple of their top prospects miss, according to Gammons (on Twitter).
  • Neftali Feliz has said he's most comfortable closing games, but Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'll continue stretching the 2010 AL Rookie of the Year out to see if he can make it as a starter, according to Anthony Andro of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram (on Twitter).
  • The Giants and last year's NL Rookie of the Year, Buster Posey, agreed to a one-year deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  He tweets that the deal is worth $575K.  That's about $150K more than the Giants had to give him.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi that Brett Lawrie has looked “very good.” The Blue Jays, who acquired Lawrie for Shaun Marcum over the winter, like the infielder’s work ethic, tools and drive.

Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011

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Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:

  • Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
  • Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
  • Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.

Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.

  • Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
  • Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.

Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.

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