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Make Or Break Year: Omar Infante

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When Omar Infante made last year's All-Star team, it surprised most fans, puzzled many and angered some. Utility players don't generally represent their league at the midsummer classic. But they don't generally lead their team with a .321 average and that's exactly what Infante did in 2010.

Doubters will point out that Infante has no track record to support his '10 performance and suggest that luck helped boost his slash line to .321/.359/.416. Infante, who had qualified for the batting title just once before last year, has a career batting average of .313 on balls in play. That figure jumped to .355 in 2010 and his line drive rate dipped, which could mean that Infante's offensive production is due to fall off.

There's more to Infante than his offense, though. He started games at second, short, third, left and right last year and though he has never logged 1,000 innings at any position on the diamond, his infield defense appears to be average. Infante's career UZR sits no higher than 2.4 and no lower than -1.2 at second, third and short, an indication that he can provide MLB-caliber defense at all three positions (the Marlins will likely play him at second in place of the man he was traded for, Dan Uggla).

If Infante continues to play solid defense and comes close to matching his 2010 production, he could position himself for a substantial contract. His former teammate, Placido Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 as a 33-year-old before signing a three-year $18MM deal with the Phillies in 2009. That same year, former utility player Marco Scutaro hit .282/.379/.409 as a 33-year-old and signed a $12.5MM deal.

Infante has yet to turn 30, so he could obtain a multiyear deal as a free agent after the season if he completes the transition from utility player to established regular like Polanco and Scutaro did. If Infante falters, however, his critics will be quick to re-apply the 'utility player' label and his free agency will likely end with a modest one-year deal.

Stark On Nationals, Red Sox, Jay, Phillies

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Jayson Werth told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that he doesn’t hate the Phillies at all and hopes for a warm reception when he returns to Philadelphia for the first time since signing with the division rival Nationals as a free agent. Here’s the latest on Werth's new team plus other rumors from around the league…

  • The Nationals would like to add a veteran to the back of their bullpen.
  • When teams ask about Nationals backstop Wilson Ramos, they’re hearing that the Nats don’t want to deal him because they believe he’s nearly ready to be a regular catcher.
  • The Red Sox have been “quietly poking around” to determine which catchers could become available.
  • The Phillies are looking for an affordable backup outfielder who can play center field and they have targeted Cardinals outfielder Jon Jay.
  • There are no indications that the Phillies plan to deal for a second baseman to replace the injured Chase Utley, however.
  • Though the Mets don’t appear to want Luis Castillo to win the second base job, scouts say he’s their best option by far.
  • The Twins are open to adding relief depth.

Royals Appear Likely To Keep Soria

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The Royals don’t seem inclined to trade Joakim Soria for anything less than an overwhelming offer, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. The 26-year-old closer, who is under team control through 2014, remains a big part of the Royals “today and for the future,” in the words of GM Dayton Moore.

“We do expect to be good at some point in time,” Moore said. “And to be good, it’s important that you’re able to match up over the last three innings of the game. Joakim Soria gives us that opportunity to do that.”

Soria, who has more continuous service with the Royals than anyone else on the team, says he’d likes the youth-oriented path the front office is taking. Unlike former teammate Zack Greinke, Soria wants to stay put. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes mentioned the closer on his list of midseason trade candidates in the American League, cautioning that the Royals were likely to keep him.

Soria said in December that he wouldn’t block a trade to the Yankees, but he later clarified that he meant to indicate that he didn’t plan to prevent the Royals from making a deal if that was their intention.

Teams Calling About Reds Catchers

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Teams have been calling the Reds about their catchers, but their chances of making a deal don’t seem good. GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s not looking to move any of his backstops.

“It’s a strength for us,” Jocketty said. “I really don’t want to take away from a strength. It can be very fragile.”

The Reds recently locked up Ryan Hanigan to a three-year, $4MM extension. He’ll join Ramon Hernandez in the majors this year while Corky Miller and prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal play in the upper minors. But with Hernandez entering a walk year, a trade appears unlikely.

Though Ivan Rodriguez is dealing with an apparently minor calf injury, the Nationals have comparable catching depth and could deal a backstop. The Astros and Padres lost Jason Castro and Gregg Zaun, respectively, so both teams could be interested in dealing for a catcher. As MLBTR's Zach Links recently pointed out, the Angels are a potential match for the Astros.

Felix Hernandez’s No-Trade Clause

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Mariners ace Felix Hernandez can block trades to ten teams, and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned eight of them: the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, and Phillies.  Morosi adds:

We shouldn’t infer from that list that Hernandez wants to avoid large-market clubs. Rather, astute players (and agents) will often protect against trades to high-revenue teams, because those clubs (a) are most likely to be interested in acquiring expensive players and (b) have the wherewithal to offer financial inducements that encourage players to waive the clauses.

Hernandez, 25 next month, is owed $70.5MM over the next four years under the contract he signed in January of 2010.  Many teams would salivate if he were made available, but GM Jack Zduriencik recently told SI's Jon Heyman, "He's not going anywhere.  We've got him. We'll keep him. We're not going to move him."

I don't see any reason to doubt Zduriencik or expect him to change his mind.  2011 may be a regrouping year for the Mariners, but they're surely expecting to contend before 2014.

Delaying Free Agency

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Some teams don't concern themselves with service time manipulation, for example the Braves in the case of Jason Heyward last year.  Others are all about it, taking great pains to ensure the player's free agency is delayed by a year and that he avoids Super Two status.

By my calculations, the MLB regular season is 182 days long this year (March 31st through September 28th).  172 days of service time represents one year, so a team just has to make sure their top prospect makes his MLB debut at a point where it's impossible to accrue more than 171 days.  In 2011, that point appears to be April 11th or later.

For example, if the Mariners feel Michael Pineda is ready to join their rotation, they can at least wait until April 11th to call him up.  This would ensure he's eligible for free agency after the 2017 season at the earliest.  Call him up on April 10th or earlier, and if he stays in the Majors continuously you only control him through 2016.  Jesus Montero, Zach Britton, and Matt Dominguez are a few other top prospects in the running to break camp with their teams and have their service time clocks start on March 31st.  Brandon Belt and Brett Lawrie, meanwhile, appear ticketed for Triple-A. 

The best recent example of a possible intentional free agency postponement is the Rays' Evan Longoria, who started the '08 season at Triple-A and spent 13 days there before making his big league debut.  He ended up accruing 170 days of service time in '08, two days short of a full year.  Rays players were unhappy when Longoria was reassigned, but executive vice president Andrew Friedman said service time considerations were "virtually irrelevant" in their decision because the Rays expected to sign the third baseman long-term.  Longoria didn't get much Triple-A seasoning that year, but his April 12th call-up was necessitated by Willy Aybar going on the DL.  Whether Longoria would have gotten the call had Aybar's injury occurred three days earlier, we'll never know. 

The Rays managed to lock Longoria up to an unprecedented contract less than a week after his debut.  But in that contract, 2014 represents his first free agent year, when it would have been 2013 had he broken camp with the team.  As it stands, Longoria gave the team club options on three free agent years.  Had he been called up a few days earlier, the contract might only allow for options through 2015 instead of '16.

Regardless of their intent regarding Longoria's debut, the Rays at least couldn't be accused of trying to prevent him from going to arbitration four times as a Super Two player.  That may have been the plan for Jay Bruce and Matt Wieters, though the Reds were probably surprised to see Bruce eligible for Super Two status with two years and just 125 days of service time.  Super Two manipulations may be more trouble than they're worth, especially with possible changes coming in the next collective bargaining agreement.

AL East Notes: Bowden, Chavez, Cliff Lee

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AL East notes, as Jon Lester gets the Opening Day nod for the Red Sox…

  • Michael Bowden told WEEI's Mike Petraglia he knows he has a slim chance to make Boston's bullpen, so he hopes to create an opportunity for himself in Triple-A.  The 24-year-old former first-round pick could be a nice trade chip for the Red Sox should a need arise; he could start for another club.
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane explained to Joel Sherman of the New York Post why he felt Eric Chavez was on a Hall of Fame career path when he locked up the third baseman for $66MM seven years ago.  Now 33 and operating on a minor league deal, Chavez appears likely to have his contract purchased by the Yankees to begin the season.  In a blog post, Sherman notes that Andruw Jones, unlike Chavez, "is creating no buzz in Yankee camp."
  • Talking to Brian Costello of the New York Post, Yankees GM Brian Cashman responded to Cliff Lee's comment that "it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older."  Lee never raised that issue to Cashman, who concluded, "It doesn't really matter.  It was a marriage that was not meant to be. That's life."

Rafael Soriano’s Contract

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Opt-out clauses and player options often result in no-win situations for teams, as in the cases of A.J. Burnett and J.D. Drew in offseasons past.  Both players were performing well enough to opt out and score much bigger contracts, a path that C.C. Sabathia could follow after the 2011 season.  My initial reaction when Scott Boras negotiated two opt-outs within Rafael Soriano's three-year, $35MM deal with the Yankees was that the team made a major concession.  However, upon a closer look I'm not so sure.

The most baffling aspect of Soriano's contract is the suggestion that his $11.67MM average salary represented a drop in his price tag.  If that's a discount, I can't imagine what Boras was asking for at the beginning of the offseason.  In January, it wasn't even clear that Soriano had a second serious suitor.

Soriano

Had he not saved 72 games over the last two seasons, I imagine Soriano's salary would have been around $6MM a year, about half what he got from the Yankees and the going rate for a top setup man.  Closer inflation is the reason I don't expect Soriano to opt out of his contract at either of his chances.  If he puts up a strong 2011 season but saves fewer than ten games, what team would pay him more than the two years and $23.5MM left on his contract?  If Soriano sets up for Rivera in 2012 as well, what team would offer him more than $12.5MM for one year?  Soriano needs to hope for relief contracts to take additional leaps forward in the next two offseasons.

The main benefit to Soriano is the chance to try for a longer term after the '11 or '12 seasons.  But if you factor in a reduced setup man salary on a new deal, I'm still skeptical that he'd risk opting out.  A strong 2011 might allow Soriano to find a three-year deal for around $25MM, but that's not a big enough improvement over the two years and $23.5MM that would remain on his current deal.  Getting three years as opposed to one after the '12 season has added appeal, but the Yankees backloaded Soriano's contract so that it'll still be a tough choice for him.  For Soriano to have a clear reason to opt out at either point, he may need to be coming off a season in which he dominates and racks up 30+ saves.  Since Rivera is 42 now, that is possible.

Soriano is an injury risk, and I've seen the argument that the opt-out clauses ensure he'll remain with the Yankees if he suffers a major injury.  That would have been the case anyway on a normal guaranteed three-year deal.

Aside from the Yankees bidding against themselves, the biggest concern about the Soriano contract is the potential erosion of GM Brian Cashman's autonomy, as he was said to be opposed to signing Soriano due to the loss of the #31 overall draft pick to the Rays.  Co-owners Hank and Hal Steinbrenner and team president Randy Levine reportedly made the final decision to sign Soriano, though Wallace Matthew's source insisted:

"Cash has not lost one iota of credibility or autonomy over this. There has been no loss of faith in him at all. Cash is in charge of all baseball operations, but he would never in a million years tell you ownership doesn't make the final decisions. It's their money, not his."

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League/International Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Chris Antonetti's first offseason as Indians GM marked the second year in a row the team spent about three million bucks on free agents.  As opposed to the Pirates and Orioles, the Indians were not willing to spend money on free agent placeholders.

Durbin

The Indians flipped Kearns for Yankees prospect Zach McAllister last summer, and that might be the plan if any of the veteran signings are having decent years at the trade deadline and the team is struggling.  Durbin (pictured) is a solid reliever, and getting him for $800K is good value.  I liked the minor league deals for Johnson and Buck, as both have upside and opportunity if they can get healthy.

Can the Indians become the surprise contender of 2011?  The offense will ideally be elevated by full seasons from Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana.  Position player reinforcements could arrive in the form of top prospects Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Nick Weglarz, and Cord Phelps. But even if we optimistically grant the Indians an above-average offense, to contend they'd need breakout performances from pitchers such as Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco, a strong debut from Alex White, and improvements from several of the relievers behind Chris Perez.  It's a lot to ask. 

The Tribe's farm system ranks seventh in baseball, according to Baseball America, which praised the club for having best 2010 draft of any team.  They're stocked at both the lower and upper levels of the minors.  This is a club that will get better in a hurry, even if 2011 is not the year.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Midseason Trade Candidates: National League

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We outlined our American League trade candidates here; let's head over to the National League.

The Mets and Pirates strike me as two teams unlikely to contend in 2011.  The Nationals, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all made win-now type moves this offseason, but at least a few of these teams will be below .500 on July 31st.

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