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Archives for January 2011

Cafardo On Blanton, Beltre, Indians, LaRoche

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe names ten teams who might reap the benefits of bargain shopping as the winter winds down. The Rays, Mets, Yankees, and Angels top the list of clubs Cafardo thinks could make discounted moves in the coming weeks. Here are the rest of his hot stove notes:

  • While the Mets will be hunting for affordable starting pitching options, don't expect the Phillies to trade Joe Blanton within the division.
  • The Angels are making sure they don't bid against themselves on Adrian Beltre, and could eventually land the third baseman for a lesser price than Scott Boras is seeking.
  • The Indians could make some more moves if they want to continue stockpiling prospects. Other teams would have interest in players like Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and Fausto Carmona, while Cleveland would "love to trade" Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner.
  • The Nationals "know it’s tough to get players to buy into the future of the team," writes Cafardo. As such, they may eventually commit to Adam LaRoche for the three years he's looking for.
  • Jim Masteralexis, Manny Delcarmen's agent, says several teams are interested in his client, and Cafardo warns not to bet against the Rays.
  • Carl Pavano may make a decision this week, and it appears that while he'd prefer to return to Minnesota, the Nationals will offer the better contract. Of course, we already saw one top free agent pitcher choose comfort over more guaranteed money, when Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies.

Poll: The Designated Hitter Market

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The market for designated hitters has been slow to develop this winter, meaning that a few intriguing veteran bats are still available. When we looked at MLBTR's top 15 remaining free agents this week, three of the top six names were designated hitters, with another likely DH, Johnny Damon, also cracking the list.

Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Damon all appear capable of contributing solid offensive production in 2011. Of the four, only Damon had a 2010 OPS below .841, and he still reached base at a .355 clip, right in line with his career rate. Considering their defensive limitations and the fact that they're on the wrong side of 35, it seems unlikely that any of these four will land multiyear deals. While the values may vary, one-year contracts in designated hitter roles appear probable for all four players.

Taking into account that likely variance in salary, here's tonight's poll question: if you were an American League GM in search of a DH, which player would you prefer to add? Who will provide the most bang for your buck in 2011? Ramirez, Thome, Guerrero, and Damon are the most intriguing names out there, but there are also a few under-the-radar DH candidates available, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows, so be sure to take that into consideration as well.

White Sox Eyeing Soriano, Done Spending?

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While "there seems to be interest" in bringing Rafael Soriano to Chicago, the White Sox may not have enough cash left to seriously pursue the right-hander, reports SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

The White Sox have made well over $100MM in contract commitments so far this offseason, re-signing Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, as well as bringing in Adam Dunn and Jesse Crain. As a result, they have "little if any" spending money at the moment, according to Heyman.

Soriano appears poised to land a multiyear deal that exceeds, if not Mariano Rivera's $30MM agreement with the Yankees, at least Joaquin Benoit's $16.5MM pact with the Tigers. As Heyman points out (on Twitter), signing Soriano would be a great way for Chicago to replace the non-tendered Bobby Jenks, but the Sox will have to find some money before they can be considered a legit suitor for the market's top closer.

MLBTR's Dan Mennella examined Soriano's market on Thursday, while earlier in December, we asked MLBTR's readers where you thought Soriano would sign. Nearly 13% of over 13,000 respondents picked the White Sox.

Possible Fits For Grant Balfour

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Earlier this week, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted that only four free agents who'd cost a draft pick to sign remain on the market. Because Adrian Beltre, Rafael Soriano, Carl Pavano, and Grant Balfour were Type A players who turned down offers of arbitration, teams signing them will have to surrender a high pick in the 2011 draft.

While parting with a draft pick wouldn't be a huge price to pay for signing Beltre, Soriano, or Pavano, the same can't necessarily be said about Balfour. The right-hander ranks 12th among our top 15 remaining free agents, whereas Beltre, Soriano, and Pavano grab the top three spots, respectively. Even in an offseason that has featured many lucrative deals for bullpen arms, giving up a first- or second-round pick for a reliever who's just one year removed from a 4.81 ERA is risky.

Which teams will be willing to take that risk and pursue Balfour anyway? Let's try to find some potential fits….

  • Orioles: They are said to have a "definite interest" in the righty, and their first-round pick in 2011 is protected, meaning they'd send a second-rounder to the Rays if they signed Balfour. They've been linked to Kevin Gregg in recent weeks as well, and seem unlikely to add both pitchers, so an agreement with Gregg could potentially take them out of the running.
  • Rays: It was no sure thing that Balfour would turn down their arbitration offer – they appeared willing to bring him back. They're still in the market for late-inning relief help, and Balfour would be a fit if the price was right.
  • Nationals: Draft pick compensation shouldn't be a concern for Washington; they added extra picks when Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox, and have already parted with their second-rounder due to the Jayson Werth signing. As such, they'd be giving up a third-rounder if they added Balfour, and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes identified the bullpen as one area the team could still address this winter.
  • Athletics, Pirates: Both clubs have a little money to spend, as shown by Oakland's pursuit of Beltre and bid on Hisashi Iwakuma, as well as Pittsburgh's handful of free agent signings. They also both have protected first-round picks. Billy Beane hinted after the Josh Willingham trade that the A's might look to add a reliever, while the Pirates had some interest in Octavio Dotel before the veteran agreed to sign with Toronto.
  • Yankees, Twins: Both teams would have to surrender their first-rounder to sign Balfour, which makes them unlikely suitors. Still, the Twins have already lost Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier to free agency, so they could use some relief help. The Yankees don't necessarily have a pressing need, but they've been linked to at least one reliever recently, in Brian Fuentes, and it's never safe to write them off on any free agent.

Last week, over 56% of about 5800 MLBTR readers voted that Balfour would land a multiyear deal somewhere. I agreed when I examined Balfour's free agent stock on the heels of Joaquin Benoit's $16.5MM deal, expressing optimism about the 33-year-old's chances of landing a multiyear contract worth at least $10MM or so. Although that's still a possibility, many of the teams we expected to be in on Balfour have addressed their bullpen in other ways. And as Tim pointed out when discussing Fuentes, a shift toward a buyer's market may occur as the spring approaches.

Several Teams Interested In Brian Fuentes

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SATURDAY: Having added Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox appear out of the running for Fuentes, tweets Heyman. However, the Rays, Yankees, and a handful of other teams are still showing interest.

THURSDAY: The Rays appear to be very interested in Fuentes and are pursuing him, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.

TUESDAY: SI's Jon Heyman pegs the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, and Mets as teams with some interest in free agent lefty reliever Brian Fuentes.

If Fuentes is still looking for Scott Downs money, as ESPN's Buster Olney suggested 12 days ago, many of those eleven teams will drop out.  I'm skeptical the Red Sox would sign Fuentes, as he'd be a luxury and they'd be hit with a 30% added tax.  The Blue Jays appear close with Octavio Dotel, the Rockies just added Matt Lindstrom, the Brewers signed Takashi Saito, the Yankees added Pedro Feliciano, the Twins have big commitments to Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, and the Phillies and Mets appear nearly tapped out on payroll.

The Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Yankees, and Mets do seem destined to add relievers, though I can see a shift toward a buyer's market a few weeks from now.

Rangers Agree To Terms With Venezuelan Shortstop

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Venezuelan shortstop Rougned Odor has agreed to terms with the Rangers for $450K, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.  The left-handed Odor can also hold his own at second base and many scouts feel that he will transition to the other side of the bag.

At 5'10", Badler writes that Odor stands out for his simple, compact stroke and advanced feel for hitting.  Some who have seen the middle infielder recently say that he has increased his speed, as evidenced by his time of 6.62 seconds in the 60-yard-dash.  Earlier this year Baseball America projected that Odor would be one of the ten best-compensated free agents from Latin America.

Discussion: Lefty Relief Options For The Mets

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In December of 2010 (gosh, it seems like so long ago) the Mets lost two left-handed relievers to free agency when Hisanori Takahashi signed with the Angels and Pedro Feliciano hooked on with the Yankees.  Since then, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com notes, the Mets haven't signed any lefty bullpen help to offset those losses.  We've heard plenty about the club's plans to search through the bargain bin for a starting pitcher, but what southpaw relief options do the Mets have?

The Mets have been linked to Brian Fuentes who would certainly go a long way to help bolster their 'pen.  The tall left-hander turned in a 2.81 ERA last season with 8.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in his walk year.  However, unless the Mets plan on expanding their budget, they likely won't have room to sign Fuentes and the starter that they're after.

Veterans such as Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, and Ron Mahay could probably be had on the cheap.  We know that Dennys Reyes will come at a reasonable price after he almost inked a one-year, $1.1MM deal with the Phillies.  Rubin also floats the names of Tim Byrdak and Randy Flores as possibilities.  While none of these players would be a particularly flashy acquisition, all of the Mets' in-house options are surrounded with question marks.  Trying Oliver Perez in relief is one such option, but his recent play in the Mexican winter league has been less-than-impressive.  If you were in Sandy Alderson's position, what direction would you go in?

Odds & Ends: Lee, A’s, Tigers, O’s, Dodgers

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The first batch of links for 2011…

  • MLB.com's Bryan Hoch wonders if waiting on Cliff Lee could come back to bite the Yankees.
  • The A's still have the cash to continue adding offense according to Jane Lee of MLB.com, but the problem is that the free agent market is thinning. Oakland has added David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Hideki Matsui this offseason, but their bid for Adrian Beltre looks to have fallen short.
  • MLB.com's Jason Beck reminds us that both Tigers' manager Jim Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski aren't under contract beyond the 2011 season, and their fates could be a package deal based on the team's performance.
  • Meanwhile, Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com notes that Andy MacPhail of the Orioles is in the same situation as Dombrowksi.
  • MLB.com's Todd Zolecki says that even though GM Ruben Amaro insists that the Phillies don't have enough financial flexibility left to make mid-season moves, we basically have to see it to believe it.
  • Right now, the plan for the Dodgers appears to be to see what the in-house candidates can do in left field platoon before making another move, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.
  • In a series of tweets, ESPN's Buster Olney says the Orioles liked Adam LaRoche, but not enough to give him a three-year contract. Manager Buck Showalter likes having a good defensive first baseman, which is what Derrek Lee is, and his one-year contract also gives them some flexibility going forward. 
  • Olney and Tom Haudricourt of The Journal Sentinel (via Twitter) wonder if the O's will make a run at Prince Fielder next offseason, while Haudricourt speculates that the Cubs could be in that mix as well. They signed Carlos Pena to a one-year deal earlier this offseason.
  • MLB.com's Tom Singer wrote about the surprising clubs that are making big moves this offseason, namely the Brewers and Nationals. 
  • In a reader column at the Detroit Free Press, Casey Caid says the Tigers are just one starting pitcher short of serious contention.

The Youngest Free Agent Available

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The rules state that a player must accrue six full years of service time before they are eligible for free agency, and as a result we see very few players hit the open market in their mid-20's. Alex Rodriguez become a free agent as a 25-year-old in the 2000-2001 offseason, and if wasn't for his recent contract extension, Felix Hernandez would have been a free agent next winter at age 25. Clearly, those two are the exception and not the rule because of their rare talent.

Players can still become a free agents without having six years of service time though, but their team would have to non-tendered at some point. That's what happened to Lastings Milledge this offseason, and he is currently the youngest free agent (with recent and substantial MLB time) on the market at 25 years old. Born on April 5, 1985, he'll turn 26 about a week into the 2011 season. 

It wasn't too long ago that Milledge was one of the game's very best prospects. Baseball America ranked him as the ninth best prospect in baseball prior to the 2006 season, a year after they dubbed him the 11th best. The Mets were never shy about aggressively promoting prospects under Omar Minaya, and Milledge made his big league debut at age 21. He was traded to the Nationals during the 2007-2008 offseason, then traded to the Pirates before the 2009 deadline. In 1,655 career plate appearances, he's a .269/.328/.394 career hitter, hardly justifying his reputation as a top prospect.

Because he is still just 25 and theoretically on the upswing of his career, Milledge could have more to offer a team than some of his fellow free agent outfielders. The best of that lot includes guys like Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, and Scott Podsednik, all of whom are on the wrong side of 30 with their best years clearly behind them. Milledge's strikeout rate has continued to improve throughout his career, and he's maintained a batting average right around .270 since 2008. The power isn't there yet, but it's usually the last tool to come and he still has some time left to grow into it.

Milledge could be useful to a big league team right now because he has some defensive versatility, capable of playing both outfield corners as well as center in an emergency. UZR doesn't love his defense, but it takes thousands of innings at a position before the stat stabilizes and becomes reliable. He has also hit left-handed pitchers pretty well in his career, a .289/.363/.435 batting line. We know the Yankees are looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, but the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies could be other clubs in that mix as well. 

Any team that signs Milledge will not only have him for the 2011 season, but also for the next two as an arbitration-eligible player as well. He's out of options, meaning he'd have to clear waivers to go to the minors, but that could be taken care of with a minor league contract. Milledge has just 580 total plate appearances at the Triple-A level (scattered across four seasons, no less), so perhaps a trip back to the bush leagues could do him some good. If he wants to ensure a return to the big leagues at some point, he could insist that an opt-out be included in his contract. Established big leaguers often have these clauses put in minor league contracts, and it allows them to elect free agency if they're not back in the majors by a certain date.

Milledge's age compared the rest of his free agent cohorts makes him an intriguing option. He's not far removed from top prospect status and won't require an arm and a leg to sign. If he flops, it would be an easy move to back out of given the minimal commitment. But if he starts to live up to his potential, whatever team signs him would have Milledge at a below market for the next three seasons. For some teams, it might be worth the risk as opposed to hoping an aging veteran fights off Father Time for another year.

Jack Of All Trades: Esteban Loaiza

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As the year 1971 prepared to close, and Nixon Now's 1972 dawned, a baby named Esteban Loaiza entered the world in Tijuana, Mexico. This Baby New Year would go on to pitch for eight teams over 14 seasons in the major leagues. Three times, he was traded for in July, with teams counting on him to pitch them to the postseason. The results were, at best, a mixed bag.

Loaiza signed as an amateur free agent with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1991. He made the jump from Double-A in 1995, and pitched until July of 1998 with Pittsburgh, putting up similar numbers to his production for the remainder of his career- a 4.63 ERA in Pittsburgh, compared to a lifetime 4.65 ERA. At that point, the Rangers decided he'd be the perfect addition to their stretch-run pitching staff, dealing infielder Warren Morris and pitcher Todd Van Poppel to Pittsburgh for Loaiza.

The trade didn't really work out for either team. Morris had a strong 1999, witn 15 home runs and a respectable 98 OPS+ at second base, but his career utterly disintegrated from there. The Pirates tried to make Van Poppel into the star everyone thought he'd be back when he was drafted in the first round of the 1990 draft. Alas, after a 4.95 ERA at Triple-A in 1999, the Pirates let him leave via free agency.

Meanwhile, Loaiza did not provide the pitching the late-90s Rangers so desperately needed. In 14 starts for Texas following the trade in 1998, he pitched to an unsightly 5.90 ERA, allowing 15 home runs in 79.1 innings, and didn't get a posteason start in an ALDS sweep by the Yankees. He improved to a 4.56 ERA in 1999, earning a Game 3 assignment in the ALDS, but Texas got swept by the Yankees again.

In 2000, the Rangers slipped out of contention early. This time, the Toronto Blue Jays sought Esteban Loaiza as the answer, shipping pitcher Darwin Cubillan and infielder Michael Young to Texas for Loaiza. With Toronto just 1.5 games out of first place, Loaiza should have been the difference. He pitched to a strong 3.62 ERA in 14 starts, but the Blue Jays finished the year 32-34 and 4.5 games behind the Yankees. As for Texas' haul, Cubillan didn't provide any value, but Michael Young and his six All Star games, 158 home runs and multi-position versatility certainly did.

Loaiza spent 2001 and 2002 in Toronto, posting an ERA over 5.00 each year, then signed with the White Sox in 2003. He was spectacular, pitching to a 2.90 ERA and finishing second in the Cy Young voting to Roy Halladay. He returned to previous form in 2004, but the Yankees saw an opportunity to acquire a starting pitcher and rid themselves of Jose Contreras, a huge disappointment. The Yankees shipped Contreras and cash to Chicago for Loaiza on July 31, 2004.

Once again, dealing for Loaiza didn't help. He pitched to an 8.50 ERA in 42 1/3 innings for New York, and the Yankees memorably came up a pitcher short in their ALCS collapse against the Boston Red Sox. The White Sox straightened Contreras out, and his 204.2 innings of 3.61 ERA pitching helped thee White Sox to their first World Series victory since 1917.

So what can we learn from the saga of Esteban Loaiza? One thing, mainly. If the best pitching help on the market is Esteban Loaiza, you might as well not make the trade. 

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