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Archives for September 2010

Free Agent Stock Watch: Orlando Hudson

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Orlando Hudson is having another solid season, though he has missed time with foot, oblique and wrist injuries. His .284/.358/.402 batting line is more than acceptable for a second baseman and his defense, which has earned him four Gold Gloves, has been excellent, according to UZR/150. (Hudson has a 14.9 UZR/150 in 2010 after posting negative UZR numbers from 2006-09).

The 32-year-old now projects as a Type A free agent and while that status has been an obstacle for Hudson before, the Twins can't offer him arbitration if he still qualifies as a Type A free agent after the season. Minnesota could look to bring him back, but they won't be the only interested team. The Indians and Nationals offered him contracts last year and could have renewed interest this offseason, depending on how they evaluate their internal options. The A's (depending on Mark Ellis' option), Cardinals and Padres could inquire about Hudson's asking price as well.

We don't have to look far to start determining what kind of contract Hudson can expect. He signed a one year deal worth $3.38MM plus incentives two winters ago before signing a one-year $5MM deal last offseason. Hudson's having another good year and if history is any indication, he'll sign another one-year deal worth $5MM or so.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Francoeur, Lilly, Loney

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On this date two years ago, instant replay was used for the first time in baseball history, resolving a fair or foul call on an Alex Rodriguez home run against the Rays at Tropicana Field. Third base umpire Brian Runge originally called the ball a homer, and that call stood upon further review. Numerous umpire gaffes have some clamoring for expanded use of instant replay, but so far Major League Baseball hasn't budged. 

Here's a look at what's been written around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

The Rays’ 2011 Rotation

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The Rays have the second-best record in baseball thanks, in large part, to one of the game's deepest rotations. The team can bring all of its starters back next year, but Tampa Bay is likely facing a lower payroll, so the rotation could line up differently in 2011. The Rays may have to consider trading a starter to clear payroll room and address other needs, but next year's rotation should remain strong.

David Price's evolution has continued in 2010. The former first overall pick has gone from late-inning reliever to Cy Young candidate in his short major league career and the Rays aren't about to trade him. Wade Davis (4.29 ERA) and Jeff Niemann (3.97 ERA) have turned in strong seasons and both figure to be cogs in next year's rotation. The Rays placed the two right-handers on the disabled list last month and Niemann has struggled immensely since returning, but both are expected to be fully healthy by 2011.

Matt Garza and James Shields complicate things. Shields earns $4.25MM next year and Garza could make $6MM or so through arbitration, so the budget-conscious Rays may have to consider trading them – at least that's what some executives suggested to ESPN.com's Buster Olney last month. Shields' team-friendly contract and strong strikeout (8.5 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) ratios should make him appealing in spite of his 4.73 ERA. Garza, who threw a no-hitter this year, has a 3.53 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, so he will appeal to rival teams, too.

It would likely be harder for the Rays to part with either of those pitchers than it was for them to trade Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel or Edwin Jackson, but the club's left fielder, first baseman and closer are headed for free agency. GM Andrew Friedman has to replace (or re-sign) Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano somehow, so he may market Shields and/or Garza, considering their salaries and the organization's depth.

When Davis and Niemann went on the disabled list, the Rays were able to call on Andy Sonnanstine and Jeremy Hellickson. Sonnanstine, who goes to arbitration for the first time this winter, has extensive experience as a starter, but has only started three games this year. Joe Maddon has been using the righty in low-leverage situations, and Sonnanstine has responded with a 4.29 ERA and twice as many strikeouts as walks. 

Sonnanstine may be best-suited for long-relief, but Hellickson appears ready to start in the major leagues. In case his 2.45 ERA and 9.4 K/9 at Triple A weren't convincing enough, the 23-year-old has turned in four dominant starts in the major leagues. The Rays will presumably find a way to work the young right-hander into their rotation next year.

Jake McGee posted a 3.06 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in the upper minors this year, so he provides Tampa Bay with yet another option. Matt Moore, a 21-year-old left-hander, has struck out an astounding 208 batters in the Florida State League and while he's not yet ready for the majors, he figures to rise quickly through the Rays' system.

The Rays have a tremendous amount of starting pitching depth in their organization. Other needs are about to emerge for the team, so it would make sense for them to consider trading Garza and Shields. Both would be sought-after and the Rays would likely have a strong rotation even if they traded one of their more established starters away.

 

Odds & Ends: Jocketty, Pirates, Indians

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Links for Friday, before Cardinals host the Reds in a must-win series…

  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times profiles Reds GM Walt Jocketty. Former Padres GM Kevin Towers has some amusing observations about trading with his longtime rival.
  • If you haven't done so already, visit our Reverse Standings page to see how the 2011 draft order is shaping up.
  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly repeated to Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he is "extremely disappointed" in his team. Asked how safe GM Neal Huntington and manager John Russell are, Coonelly said he is “evaluating every aspect of [the team’s] operation in order to determine how [to] get the club moving in the right direction immediately.” 
  • As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, the Red Sox want 2010 draft pick Anthony Ranaudo to get accustomed to pro ball, but they don't want him to pitch just yet.
  • I previewed the Indians 2011 rotation last month; now Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer makes some predictions of his own right here.

Durbin Hopes To Return To Phillies

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Chad Durbin told Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he “definitely” wants to re-sign in Philadelphia when he hits free agency this offseason. The Phillies seem to want the right-hander back, too. Manager Charlie Manuel says Durbin has “done a tremendous job” and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says the 32-year-old has “done everything” expected of him. But the Phillies have already committed over $140MM to next year’s payroll, so Durbin realizes he may not be back.

"It'll be something that's tough," Durbin said. "If somebody is offering two or three years, it'll be hard to say no to that to take a one-year deal where you really want to be."

Amaro says the Phillies have not yet discussed the possibility of signing Durbin, who now earns $2.125MM, to a multi-year deal. Durbin has averaged 60 appearances per season from 2008-10 in Manuel’s bullpen. His 3.63 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over that three-year span are respectable, but not irreplaceable. 

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes showed last month, the Phillies have handed out more years than necessary before, so perhaps Durbin will get to stay in Philadelphia on a multi-year deal as well. If not, other teams will show interest on the open market. Durbin now ranks as a Type B free agent, so he won’t cost other clubs a draft pick, but the Phillies will get one if they lose Durbin after offering arbitration.

 

Heyman On Fielder, Kemp, Mets, Jeter

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In his latest column for Sports Illustrated, Jon Heyman writes that the waiver trade deadline was a dud outside of the Manny Ramirez claim by the White Sox.  Even though the waiver trade deadline was somewhat quiet, this offseason should bring us plenty of interesting storylines.  Here's what Heyman has in hot stove news..

  • The Brewers are still holding out hope that they can re-sign Prince Fielder.  Meanwhile, others in baseball believe that they have virtually no chance of retaining the slugger.  Milwaukee's chances of hanging on to Fielder took a hit when the Twins re-upped Joe Mauer for $180MM.  Fielder wants at least that much but it's likely too rich for Milwaukee's blood. 
  • Heyman hears that Matt Kemp is seeking a deal with the Dodgers similar to Nick Markakis' contract.  Markakis inked a six-year, $66MM extension with the O's in January of 2009.  In fact, as a center fielder with power, Kemp sees himself as more valuable.  However, the soon-to-be 26-year-old knows that he won't get that kind of deal with the Dodgers.
  • Speaking of the Dodgers, Heyman says that it's tough to envision Ted Lilly approaching the $12MM salary he got from the Cubs.
  • Mets GM Omar Minaya has told friends that he enjoys scouting and talent evaluation.  Heyman wonders aloud if this is a precursor to Minaya has accepted that he will be assigned to a new position.  Some in the organization wonder if owner Fred Wilpon traveling to the minors with assistant GM John Ricco means that the Mets intend to elevate Ricco to the GM position.  It's possible, however, that Ricco was just assisting on a scouting mission.
  • It's hard to quantify Derek Jeter's value to the Yankees though early guesses of him earning $25MM per season in his next contract seem high at the moment.
  • Unsurprisingly, Heyman writes that Texas will non-tender Jeff Francoeur this offseason.

Discussion: Adrian Beltre

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Last month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined some potential suitors for Adrian Beltre's services this offseason.  The 31-year-old should have no shortage of opportunities coming his way this winter after his resurgent 2010 campaign in Boston.  It seemed unlikely before this season that the former Dodger and Mariner would reach the necessary 640 plate appearances to activate a $10MM player option for 2011, writes Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal, but with a month to go and just over 100 plate appearances needed, it now seems probable.

Many people in the baseball world, including Buster Olney of ESPN (via Twitter), believe that the Scott Boras client will decline the player option without much thought.   After all, Beltre could land a three- or four-year deal on the open market this winter.  Our own Tim Dierkes writes that the veteran may start the bidding at about $50MM over four years.

Will the third baseman rake in more than $10MM per season on a multi-year deal?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Wakamatsu, Lilly, Delcarmen, Rays

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Links for Thursday night..

Dodgers Will Seek Big Bat, Catcher This Offseason

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The Dodgers hope to lure a bopper to Los Angeles this winter in order to shore up the middle of their lineup, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.  Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has already acknowledged that adding a big bat will be a top priority this season.

There are some intriguing offensive options that will hit the open market this season including Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, and a trio of former Dodgers in Jayson Werth, Paul Konerko, and possibly Adrian Beltre.  While those players will all come with hefty price tags, the Dodgers will have as much as $38MM coming off of their payroll at season's end.  That's money that the club could use in free agency though Gurnick writes that Colletti is more likely to get a power hitter via trade.

Gurnick also writes that Los Angeles needs a starting catcher, adding that Russell Martin was a question mark even before breaking his hip.  The backstop has seen his offensive production drop significantly in the last two years, hitting just .249/.350/.330 with 12 homers.

Nationals Notes: Hudson, Morgan, Norris

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Let's take a look at some Nationals tidbits courtesy of MLB.com's Bill Ladson..

  • Recently, Ladson said that he would be writing about the Nats possibly signing Orlando Hudson for the third year in a row.  However, the Nats beat writer now believes that the club has its second baseman of the future in Danny Espinosa.  Pat Corrales, the team's senior assistant in player development, believes that the 23-year-old is the best all-around player in the organization.  Espinosa was promoted to Triple-A Syracuse in early August and has posted a .295/.349/.463 slash line in 24 games.
  • One reader asks if the Nationals can find a way to get beleaguered outfielder Nyjer Morgan's head back into the game.  Ladson isn't sure why Morgan has been struggling this year but says that he could see Washington dealing him this offseason.  Unsurprisingly, however, he doesn't envision the club getting much in return.  People in the organization have said that he should be a fourth outfielder, an idea which likely wouldn't sit well with the 30-year-old.
  • Even after acquiring Wilson Ramos from the Twins for Matt Capps, Ladson says that the Nats should hold on to fellow catcher Derek Norris.  The Nats have historically had trouble with their depth at catcher and could use the security of having Norris in the fold.  The former fourth-round pick was ranked second in the Nats' farm system by Baseball America heading into this year, ahead of Espinosa, Drew Storen, and Ian Desmond.

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