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Archives for September 2010

Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp

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Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….

  • One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
  • While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
  • Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
  • Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
  • Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.

Twins Designate Matt Fox For Assignment

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The Twins have designated right-hander Matt Fox for assignment, according to a team release. The move clears a spot on the Twins' roster for Ben Revere, who was selected from Double-A.

Fox, 27, made his first big league start this weekend, pitching 5.2 solid innings against the Rangers on Friday night. Revere, meanwhile, was Minnesota's first-round pick (28th overall) in the 2007 draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the team's fifth-best prospect prior to the season. In 406 plate appearances at Double-A New Britain this year, the 22-year-old hit .305/.371/.363 with 36 stolen bases.

Cardinals Notes: Pujols, Ryan, Schumaker, Rasmus

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The Cardinals have slipped to eight games back of the Reds in the NL Central race, and the division title is looking increasingly out of reach for St. Louis. So rather than focusing on this season, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previews the coming winter, asking a few questions about what the team's future holds. Here are some highlights of Strauss' piece:

  • Locking up Albert Pujols is the club's top priority; the Cards will likely have trouble adding another impact bat until they know what sort of money they'll be committing to their top hitter for the next several years.
  • "Strong opinion exists" at the major league level that the Cards' Triple-A and Double-A affiliates won't produce an impact position player for at least the next couple seasons. Strauss points out that the team hasn't signed many minor league free agents in recent years, and that the organization might have to rethink that strategy to provide depth and insurance for the big league roster.
  • The Cards may need to look into acquiring more offense at its middle infield spots, since Brendan Ryan (.573 OPS) and Skip Schumaker (.680 OPS) have contributed very little at the plate.
  • It's still up in the air whether Tony La Russa will be back to manage in St. Louis next season. If he does, there are questions about his relationship with Colby Rasmus. According to Strauss' club sources, Rasmus requested a trade earlier this year due to his frustrations with the Cards' skipper.

Odds & Ends: Van Mil, Werth, Millwood

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A few more Saturday night links….

Non-Tender Candidate: Jose Lopez

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Heading into this season, the 2011 option that the Mariners held for Jose Lopez seemed likely to be exercised. A $5MM price tag for a 26-year-old second baseman coming off a 25-homer season looked like a bargain.

With the season now winding down, however, the Mariners' decision doesn't look quite so obvious. Although he has provided the team better defense at third base than he did last year at second (according to UZR), Lopez's offensive production has fallen off a cliff. After hitting .272/.303/.463 in 2009, the infielder has seen his 2010 slash line slip to .240/.270/.331.

Lopez's down year means that the Mariners must now make a series of decisions this winter regarding his future. First, they'll have to decide if this season was an aberration for Lopez or whether they may have reason to expect more of the same next year. The 26-year-old was never adept at getting on base, but generally made up for it with his power stroke. With only seven home runs in 529 plate appearances this year, he's no longer doing that. Will he be able to get his slugging percentage back up to .450+ in 2011?

If the offensively challenged M's decide they'd like to have Lopez around next spring, they still have to determine whether to pick up or decline his option. Considering Lopez is making $2.75MM this year and his option is worth $5MM ($250K buyout), Seattle could elect to turn down the option and instead tender him a contract in his final arbitration-eligible season. Due to Lopez's struggles, whatever raise he would earn in arbitration should still see him earning less than the $4.75MM it would cost the team to exercise the option.

On the other hand, the Mariners could decide they don't have interest in retaining Lopez and his .298 career OBP at all, declining his option and then non-tendering him. What do you expect the Mariners to do? Click here to vote on their decision and click here to view the results.

Trevor Cahill: Extension Candidate

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Trevor Cahill is still over a year away from becoming eligible for arbitration for the first time, but if the Athletics' past signings are any indication, the team has already started thinking about offering him an extension. More than any other club over the last decade, the A's have exhibited a willingness to lock up their young pitchers very early in their careers, which means an agreement between the A's and Cahill could be on the horizon.

Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Rich Harden, and, most recently, Brett Anderson all inked their extensions with Oakland prior to racking up two years of service time. In each instance, the structure of the contract was similar: with the exception of Anderson, who has a club option for his first year of free agency, the A's never bought out more than the pitchers' arbitration seasons. While there was some risk involved for the team, locking up pitchers so early in their careers, the moves were designed to avoid paying exorbitant raises through arbitration down the road.

It's possible that, given injuries to Harden and Anderson after they signed their extensions, the A's will be more inclined to go year to year with their current crop of young starters. If the club is still willing to assume the risk inherent in long-term extensions though, players like Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, and especially Cahill could benefit.

After throwing six more shutout innings today, Cahill ranks third in the American League in ERA, his 2.72 mark bested only by Clay Buchholz and Felix Hernandez. Cahill, 22, has improved his peripherals across the board this year, including a walk rate of 2.7 BB/9 and just 0.8 HR/9. There are a couple of red flags for the former second-round draft pick; he doesn't strike out many hitters (5.1 K/9) and his ERA is two runs lower at home than on the road. Still, he has been the undisputed ace of the staff this season, and the A's would be doing well to lock him up at an affordable price.

When considering what sort of contract offer would be appropriate for Cahill, the A's and the pitcher's agent will likely have different ideas for comparisons. Oakland could point to Fausto Carmona, who signed a long-term extension following a 2007 campaign (3.06 ERA) that earned him Cy Young votes. Carmona's deal guarantees him $15MM for his final four years of team control, and includes affordable club options for each of his first three free agent years.

Cahill and his agent would probably prefer to align the right-hander with Ricky Romero, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Lester, who signed extensions worth about $30MM over five years – four of team control and one of free agency. Cahill isn't as dominant as those pitchers, relying, like Carmona, more on groundballs than strikeouts, but his age and his comparable peripheral numbers work in his favor.

Given Oakland's preference to lock up its young pitchers for their arbitration years, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the two sides reach an agreement this winter. A deal worth a little less than $20MM for Cahill's final four years of team control could make sense for both the team and the 22-year-old.

Rosenthal’s Full Count: Managerial Searches

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Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports has his newest Full Count Video up, focusing this week on managerial searches around the Majors. Let's dive in:

  • The Braves may pursue their top candidate — believed to be recently fired Marlins skipper Fredi Gonzalez — prior to the end of Bobby Cox's tenure. If the Braves make a deep playoff run, they may look to lock down Gonzalez before other teams, such as the Cubs, can get their hands on him.
  • The Marlins want their next manager to have a "more dynamic personality" than Gonzalez. Rosenthal names Bobby Valentine, who says he doesn't know what happened previously with Florida or what will happen in the future, Jim Fregosi, Wally Backman, and Larry Bowa as candidates.
  • Mets general manager Omar Minaya is telling friends that he knows his time is running out. The Mets are likely to move Minaya to a scouting role and promote assistant GM John Ricco. However, if they go outside the organization, some names to remember are former Rangers and Indians GM John Hart, and Dan Jennings, a longstanding Marlins executive.
  • There have been rumblings of Hart taking over the job in Baltimore as well, but there's no indication that Andy MacPhail is on his way out.
  • Rosenthal quotes an MLB executive as saying Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is "under siege" in Seattle, given that a Seattle Times report this week claimed Zduriencik knew more about Josh Lueke's criminal record than he let on before they acquired him in the trade for Cliff Lee. Rosenthal says that it's unlikely the Mariners act so quickly in dismissing Zduriencik, but if they were to do so, that Jennings, a former Mariners scout, and former Padres GM Kevin Towers could be fits.

Kepner’s Latest: Astros’ Future, Jackson, Pirates

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Tyler Kepner of the New York Times has some odds and ends from around the baseball universe; let's take a look at some of the highlights:

  • The trades of players like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt signify that the Astros have finally moved on and are looking ahead. Wandy Rodriguez is the only remaining player who played in the 2005 World Series with the club.
  • General manager Ed Wade refuted speculation that he prefers to trade with the Phillies, the team for which he served as general manager from 1998-2005. Instead, he simply says that the Phillies provided the best offers to improve the Astros. Wade has traded both Oswalt and Brad Lidge to Philadelphia.
  • Wade praises first-year manager Brad Mills for keeping the Astros focused after a 17-34 start to the season. Houston went 17-12 in August and has recently swept both the Phillies and Cardinals.
  • Edwin Jackson is happy to be in Chicago on a fresh start. “It’s like a new season,” Jackson said. Earlier today we heard that Daniel Hudson, one of the players the Diamondbacks received in the deal, is experiencing similar enjoyment in Arizona.
  • Kepner points out that the pitchers acquired from the Yankees in recent years haven't panned out for the Pirates. Ross Ohlendorf has experienced some success, but Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen have both disappointed. All three came to Pittsburgh in the trade for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. It's worth pointing out that the other component of that trade was Jose Tabata, who has played very well in his first taste of the big leagues this year.

Odds & Ends: Konerko, Kuroda, Astros, Morgan

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A few links to check out while we wait to see if Jon Garland can halt the Padres' eight-game losing streak and get his team's season back on track…

  • The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo wonders out loud (via Twitter) if Paul Konerko could be a fit for the Red Sox in 2011. That speculation, of course, likely depends on Adrian Beltre's future in Boston.
  • In a piece for MLB.com, Sarah D. Morris opines that the Dodgers should re-sign Hiroki Kuroda, even though the team's financial situation makes it unlikely.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) draws the parallels between this year's Astros and last year's Padres, pointing out that both clubs traded long-time stars at the deadline for young players and payroll savings, then went on to have strong second halves.
  • Olney also notes that given his disappointing season (.255/.314/.315) and recent suspension troubles, Nyjer Morgan is hurting his chances for future employment. FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi also chimed in on the subject.
  • The Nationals plan to call up Cuban defector Yunesky Maya following Monday's game according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Washington signed the 28-year-old righthander early last month.
  • USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently sat down for a chat with Dan Hudson. Among other things, the righty said it's nice to be with a team that wants him. Hudson was traded from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for Edwin Jackson before this year's deadline.

The Twins’ 2011 Rotation

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Anchored by a resurgent Francisco Liriano and a surprisingly strong campaign from Carl Pavano, the Twins currently sit sixth in the American League with a 4.10 ERA from their starting rotation. The rest of their rotation has primarily consisted of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Brian Duensing. Let's take a look at how things could shake out for 2011.

The Twins offered Pavano arbitration last year, and the jury was out on whether or not offering it was the right move after he accepted. Pavano's $7MM has been a steal for Minnesota though, as the right-hander has already thrown 189 innings of 3.52 ERA ball. Only Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have posted marks better than Pavano's 1.5 BB/9, and his 3.34 K/BB ratio is 18th in the Majors (with Liriano and Baker ahead of him). The Twins will certainly offer Pavano arbitration again — he currently qualifies as a Type A free agent. He may decline and seek multiple years on the free agent market, but there's also the chance that he finds those multiple years in Minneapolis, where he and his signature mustache have developed a cult following.

Liriano is arbitration-eligible for a second time and figures to see a nice raise on his $1.6MM salary this season. If the Twins are convinced of his health, they may look to lock him up before 2011 as they did with Baker pre-2009 and Blackburn pre-2010.

Baker's extension has been far more successful than Blackburn's, who temporarily lost his rotation spot to Duensing after being optioned to Triple-A Rochester in late July sporting an ERA of 6.66. Since returning, Blackburn seems to have gotten back on track, though. Slowey saw similar struggles early in the summer but came back to post an ERA just over 4.00 in July and August, including a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts before hitting the DL recently.

Duensing has been a breath of fresh air to a rotation that failed to acquire what many thought was a much-needed starter at the deadline. Overall, through 99 innings, Duensing's posted a 2.09 ERA and has a nice 2.0 BB/9. His 83.2% strand rate and 4.14 xFIP suggest he's due for some regression, however. Still, he offers the Twins some insurance in case Pavano departs, but who else could they call on?

Minnesota drafted Kyle Gibson in the first round of 2009, and he's risen quickly through the minors, reaching Triple-A in just one season with an overall 2.96 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9. Considered a potential Top 10 pick, he fell to the Twins at 22nd due to concern over a stress fracture in his arm. Baseball America ranked him as the game's 22nd-best prospect on their mid-season rankings.

Jeff Manship has filled in admirably for the Twins in long relief and spot starting in 2010, posting a 2.38 ERA through 22.2 innings. Like most Twins pitchers, he's not big on the strikeouts, but he limits his walks well.

Glen Perkins is another former first-rounder for the Twins, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with the organization to some extent after nearly filing a grievance over his service time in 2009. Perkins has struggled tremendously with a 5.88 ERA in Rochester this season, while allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings with the big league club. David Bromberg, the Twins' #9 prospect entering the season, has a 3.75 ERA through 151.1 innings in the upper minors as well.

The Twins stand to enter 2011 with Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, and Duensing, though the latter two could be pushed for competition by someone like Gibson early in the season, or could give way if Pavano returns. Their pitching depth may not feature many top-of-the-rotation type arms, but should allow them a solid, consistent rotation through and through.

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