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Archives for September 2010

Non-Tender Candidate: Ryan Church

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For the second consecutive season, Ryan Church has played well enough to appear in 100 games, but poorly enough to become a non-tender candidate. Last year, the Braves non-tendered Church instead of offering him anything close to his 2009 salary of $2.8MM and he faces similar uncertainty heading into the 2010-11 offseason.

The Pirates signed Church for $1.5MM and saw him hit just .182/.240/.312 before they traded him to Arizona in July. The 31-year-old has hit well for the D'Backs, as his .279/.354/.535 line shows, but his 48 plate appearances in the desert haven't earned him any guarantees for 2011. 

Church has played all three outfield positions this year, and though he hasn't logged a significant number of innings in 2010, we can say that he is versatile and has posted slightly above average UZRs for seven consecutive seasons. His batting average on balls in play is 60 points below his career mark, but he is hitting fewer liners and more fly balls than usual, so this isn't purely a case of bad luck.

Despite his good at bats in Arizona and his versatility in the outfield, Church won't necessarily see a contract offer from the D'Backs. It won't be hard to find fourth outfielders for $1-2MM through free agency, so it seems unlikely that the D'Backs will offer Church a contract for a comparable amount of money after a mostly disappointing season. Let's see what you think. Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Lilly, D’Backs, Crawford

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On this date in 1990, the Dodgers signed Miguel Cairo as an amateur free agent. These days, Cairo's playing all around the diamond for the Reds, as they approach their first playoff berth since 1995. Here are today's links…

  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly has “veto authority, but he most definitely does not do any of the day-to-day GM work,” according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported earlier in the day that some baseball people see Coonelly as the team’s de facto GM.
  • Ted Lilly and the Dodgers have an understanding that they'll talk about a new deal after the season, when Lilly hits free agency, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • The D'Backs appear to want a GM whose forte is scouting and player development, according to Olney (on Twitter).
  • Houston native Carl Crawford told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he likes Houston and has nothing against the Astros. Crawford, who hits free agency this winter, says his friends see him playing for a winner. Despite their strong second half, the Astros are five games below .500.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that the Blue Jays are being "incredibly open-minded" as they search for their next field manager.

Top Execs Could Shy Away From Mets GM Job

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The Mets may have trouble convincing baseball’s top executives to take over as the team’s next general manager, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets will fire or re-assign GM Omar Minaya after the season, according to Sherman, but that’s the easy part. Sherman reports that chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon has a reputation in baseball circles as a tone deaf, credit-seeking, second-guessing micro-manager who isn’t accountable or self aware.

That reputation won’t make the Mets’ search for a new GM any easier, but they’re prepared to spend, even though they owe Minaya millions after 2010. Former Padres GM Kevin Towers will likely take the Diamondbacks GM job if the money is right and former D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes is hesitant to work for the Wilpons, according to Sherman.

Former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker likes working for the Rays, but those close to him say he would consider the right GM job. Those are far from the only qualified candidates to run a team, but it appears that the Mets will have to fight the perception that Wilpon is a difficult boss as they hunt for their next GM.

Rosenthal On Beltran, Pirates, Pujols, Braves

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There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 2011 Mets from Francisco Rodriguez to Omar Minaya to Jerry Manuel. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Minaya or his replacement,  “would be wise to explore trades for [Jose] Reyes and [David] Wright” this offseason. Here are the rest of the rumors:

  • Carlos Beltran, a player who could become a trade chip this winter, told Rosenthal that he would like to remain on the Mets.
  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly is the team's “de facto GM”, according to some rival executives.
  • Not surprisingly, the Cardinals’ top offseason priority will be extending Albert Pujols, who will hit the open market after 2011 unless the Cards lock him up. It took Joe Mauer and the Twins a while to work out their $184MM extension, so we could be in for a winter’s worth of Pujols rumors.
  • As Rosenthal points out, the Braves could use a big bat to play left field and they'll likely be on the lookout for one this offseason.

Team And Transaction-Only Feeds

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If you'd like to filter MLBTR's information by team or limit it to transactions only, we've got you covered.

In the navigation bar, check out the Feeds By Team dropdown.  Clicking on the name of a team returns all the posts that reference that club.  For example, this page displays only posts with Braves-related rumors.  The newest will always be on top. 

Next to the word "Braves" you'll see an RSS button and a Twitter button.  The RSS button leads here, to the URL you'd put into your RSS reader to receive only our Braves rumors.  The Twitter button takes you to @mlbtrbraves, which shows all posts involving the team.  The MLBTR team Twitter pages are also a place to quickly receive info from team press releases, even if that info is not used on the main site.

If you'd prefer to monitor only actual transactions, we've got several options.  Our Transactions page shows only posts marked as transactions, such as signings, trades, DFAs, and releases.  You can also get this same info on Twitter and RSS.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Melvin Mora

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There's a limit to how much 38-year-old utility men can earn, and Melvin Mora is doing everything within his power to push that limit as he heads for another round of free agency. He's hitting well and playing all over the place as the Rockies make their annual charge towards the postseason. Here's the outlook for Mora this winter:

The Pros

  • Mora is batting .286/.363/.404 this year, a significant improvement from the 2009 line he posted in Baltimore (.260/.321/.358).
  • The Rockies called on Mora to be their everyday third baseman when Ian Stewart hit the DL on August 26th and Mora has responded by posting an .873 OPS since then, proving that he can still play every day if necessary.
  • He has played first, second, third and left field this year.
  • He won't cost a draft pick, since he doesn't project to be a ranked free agent.

The Cons

  • Mora turns 39 before the season starts, so his chances of winning another Silver Slugger or clubbing 27 homers in a season again are slim. He's a role player at this point in his career.
  • His batting average on balls in play is the highest it has been in five years, despite a career-low line drive rate. Those numbers suggest Mora has benefitted from some good luck on balls in play.

The Verdict

Mora is not getting a multi-year deal this winter, barring a major surprise, but he has likely earned himself a raise from his current $1.275MM salary. It seems like Mora's in line for another one-year deal this winter, but he could earn $2-3MM this time around.

Heyman On Valentine, Macha, Mariners

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MLB executives told Jon Heyman of SI.com that they’d be happy to ignore Felix Hernandez’s relatively low win total and hand him the Cy Young Award because of how well he has pitched this year. Here are the managerial rumblings that Heyman’s hearing:

  • Bobby Valentine would likely be a candidate to manage in the Bronx if Joe Girardi moves on after the season. That seems unlikely, however.
  • Ken Macha won’t likely return to manage the Brewers next year, but bench coach Willie Randolph doesn’t appear to be the favorite to replace Macha. Bob Melvin could be a candidate, as Heyman suggested last week.
  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is on "shaky ground” according to people around baseball. Zduriencik admitted to Heyman that he should have looked into Josh Lueke’s background more carefully before acquiring him from the Rangers.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Xavier Nady

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It's always tough for a player when he hits free agency coming off an injury, but it's even tougher when it's a major injury. That's exactly what happened to Xavier Nady last winter, when he was recovering from his second Tommy John surgery after coming to the plate just 29 times for the Yankees in 2009. 

The Cubs rolled the dice and signed Nady to a one-year deal worth $3.3MM in late January, though incentives based on games started and plate appearances have put another $350K in his pocket this season. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency…

The Pros

  • After a slow start, Nady has rounded into form down the stretch, hitting .317/.351/.423 in his last 131 plate appearances. Not coincidentally, that hot streak almost directly coincides with the trade of Derrek Lee, which is when Nady took the first base job outright.
  • He's now more than a full year away from his surgery and hasn't shown any ill effects. 
  • Nady is versatile, capable of playing first and both outfield corners regularly, as well as third in an emergency.
  • He is not projected to be a Type-A (or even a Type-B) free agent, meaning a team would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Cubs offered him arbitration after the season. 

The Cons

  • Always known for his ability to mash lefthanded pitching (.298/.369/.455 vs. LHP in his career), Nady has hit just .250/.295/.375 against southpaws this year.
  • He's also striking out more than ever, in exactly 27% of his at-bats, and his power numbers are down as well; Nady's .380 slugging percentage is his lowest since 2003.
  • He hit just .225/.298/.344 in 171 plate appearances before taking over at first base full-time, perhaps suggesting that he needs regular playing time to remain productive. 
  • Nady will turn 32-years-old this November, so he's teetering on the edge of his prime and decline phases.

The Verdict

Despite what shaped up to be the worst season of Nady's career, he still has value as a platoon player that won't fall on his face if pressed into full-time duty. It would appear that staying in the NL makes the most sense, but perhaps the more hitter friendly parks of the AL would benefit Nady the most. There's no reason to think he'll be able to find a multi-year deal or get a considerable raise on the open market, so I would expect him to sign for a contract very similar to what he agreed to last winter. 

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 18th, 2010.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.

Talks Picking Up Between Dunn, Nationals

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Talks about a contract extension between Adam Dunn and the Nationals have "picked back up" according to the first baseman, and he says a deal "could happen today." That appears to be a little optimistic on Dunn's part, but we'll let you decide. Here is exactly what he said, courtesy of The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore…

"I do [think I'll be a National in 2011]," Dunn said. "More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."

"Going to free agency doesn't mean I'm leaving here. I'm sure whenever the season is over, I'll have, whatever it is, a month. If things haven't worked out here, yeah, it's going to go to free agency. But that doesn't mean I'm not coming here."

The Adam Dunn contract extension saga has lasted all year long, with both sides expressing interest in getting a deal done only to have nothing in place with the season about to draw to a close. Dunn indicated that he's in no hurry to sign, acknowledging that it's probably a disadvantage for him to agree to a deal without at least seeing what the open market has to offer.

Dunn, 30, is hitting .262/.358/.542 with 35 homers this season. He's gone deep at least 35 times in seven straight years, and right now the ability to hit for power is at a premium around the league. Despite the obvious fit, Dunn reiterated that he does not want to be a full-time designated hitter in the future, something that will work against him as a free agent. 

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