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Abandoned Free Agent Signings

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Eight players signed as free agents for over a million bucks in the offseason have been dumped so far this year.  Let's look at the grisly details.

  • Alex Cora, released by Mets on 8-7-10.  Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal by Omar Minaya on 11-30-09.  Received 187 plate appearances. 
  • Chan Ho Park, designated for assignment by Yankees on 7-31-10.  Signed to a one-year, $1.2MM deal by Brian Cashman on 2-24-10.  Pitched 35.3 innings. 
  • Brendan Donnelly, released by Pirates on 7-29-10.  Signed to a one-year, $1.35MM deal by Neal Huntington on 1-18-10.  Pitched 30.6 innings. 
  • Garrett Atkins, released by Orioles on 7-6-10.  Signed to a one-year, $4.5MM deal by Andy MacPhail on 12-18-09.  Received 152 plate appearances. 
  • Adam Everett, released by Tigers on 6-15-10.  Signed to a one-year, $1.55MM deal by Dave Dombrowski on 12-7-09.  Received 89 plate appearances. 
  • Randy Winn, designated for assignment by Yankees on 5-28-10.  Signed to a one-year, $1.1MM deal by Brian Cashman on 2-8-10.  Received 71 plate appearances. 
  • Bob Howry, released by Diamondbacks on 5-17-10.  Signed to a one-year, $2.25MM deal by Josh Byrnes on 12-28-09.  Pitched 14.3 innings. 
  • Jack Cust, designated for assignment by Athletics on 4-3-10.  Signed to a one-year, $2.65MM deal by Billy Beane on 1-7-10.  This may have been more of a procedural move by the A's, but they were still willing to let him go for nothing three months and zero plate appearances after signing him.
  • Only $16.6MM was committed to these players, so it's not outrageous.  The cases of Cust, Howry, and Winn are curious because they were cut so quickly, while Atkins stands out as the worst signing of the bunch. 
  • Also consider Jeremy Hermida, Akinori Iwamura, and Brian Bruney.  They were not free agents but these offseason acquisitions were also outrighted or released.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Yankees

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A look at the Yankees players who will be arbitration-eligible after the season…

Hughes and Chamberlain are the team's most interesting cases.  Though Joba still has a respectable 3.79 career ERA, his recent work hasn't been great and the time spent in the bullpen has resulted in only 16 career wins.  He won't get a massive salary.  Hughes will be coming off a strong platform year, but his career numbers are similarly limited.  He should fall short of $4MM.

Logan will probably be tendered a contract; it's not too risky and he showed promise against lefties when he was in the bigs.  Gaudin, Mitre, and Moseley are the biggest non-tender candidates.

Will The Cubs Sign Adam Dunn?

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With the caveat that free agent destinations are difficult to predict in August, Adam Dunn and the Cubs are an agreeable match.  The Cubs badly need a left-handed power bat at first base, and Dunn is a fan of Wrigley Field and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, based on comments he made to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  ESPN's Buster Olney guesses that a four-year offer from the Cubs would seal the deal.  The Cubs currently project to have the sixth overall pick in the 2011 draft, which will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down an arbitration offer.

Dunn twice mentioned his ongoing contract talks with the Nationals in his conversation with Wittenmyer.  How likely is an extension?  According to MASN's Ben Goessling, team sources "are skeptical that the Nationals will re-sign the first baseman before he hits free agency."  What's more, one Nationals source says the team's braintrust "loves" Carlos Pena.  Pena has slumped to a .213/.338/.439 line in 2010, but he won't require a four-year deal.  As a Scott Boras client, I wonder if Pena prefers a one-year pact.

Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox

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A look at the Red Sox players who will be arbitration-eligible after the season…

Okajima stands a good chance of being non-tendered as the Sox try to revamp a portion of their bullpen.  I expect Theo Epstein to shop him around in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline.  As for Cash, Boston would probably non-tender him and try to re-sign him to a minor league deal if they want him back.

Ellsbury seems to be on thin ice in Boston, while Papelbon is having his worst season.  Both players are trade candidates.  It might be wise to wait for Ellsbury to rebuild value.  Papelbon presents a tricky situation.  He's still a useful reliever, and could return to greatness in 2011, but the cost may approach $12MM.  The Red Sox have to decide whether to trade him, keep him, or even non-tender him.

Odds & Ends: Brazoban, White Sox, Baker

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More links for Monday, as Jose Bautista becomes the first major leaguer to hit 40 home runs this season… 

Red Sox Claim Johnny Damon

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9:36pm: Damon repeated after tonight's game that he's leaning toward staying in Detroit, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (Twitter links). Damon's gut and his teammates are telling him to stay in Detroit.

3:45pm: Damon hasn't decided whether he'd accept an assignment to Boston, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck, who notes that the outfielder has about 48 hours to make up his mind (Twitter link).

3:09pm: A no-trade clause does not necessarily give a player the right to prevent his team from handing him over on waivers, according to an MLB Players Association official who spoke to MLBTR this afternoon. In many cases, a player has a non-assignment clause that would prevent trades and waiver claims. However, not all players with no-trade clauses can prevent their teams from handing them over on waivers.

In other words, Damon's ability to prevent the Tigers from handing him to the Red Sox depends on the wording in his contract.

2:51pm: Damon told Ed Price of AOL FanHouse he's not inclined to go back to Boston (Twitter link).

2:28pm: The Red Sox claimed Johnny Damon off waivers from the Tigers, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  The next question is whether the Tigers will work out a trade with the Sox, dump Damon on them for nothing, or pull him back.  Damon can veto a trade to the Red Sox.  Of Damon's $8MM salary, about $1.8MM remains.  Heyman opined earlier today that he believes the Tigers would let Damon go if a deal cannot be worked out.

Damon played for the Red Sox from 2002-05, but had an acrimonious departure and signed with the Yankees.  The Red Sox would be getting a diminished version of Damon this time, but he'd still be useful with Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury currently on the disabled list.  The Sox may have made the Damon claim to block the Rays or Yankees, but they know it is possible they end up with the player.

Damon, 36, predictably saw his power slip with the switch from Yankee Stadium to Comerica Park.  He's hitting .270/.355/.409 on the season and has logged only 268 innings in the outfield.  He profiles as a Type B free agent after the season, but an arbitration offer seems unlikely.

The Indians’ 2011 Rotation

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Fausto Carmona will be starting for the Indians next year, but after him, there's a lot of uncertainty in Cleveland's projected rotation. The team's 2011 options are generally young, promising and unproven; here's a more detailed look.

Mitch Talbot has probably pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot for 2011 and the early returns are good for Jeanmar Gomez and Josh Tomlin. Both Gomez and Tomlin have ERAs under 4.00, but neither pitcher has started more than six games, so manager Manny Acta can't pencil them into his 2011 plans quite yet. David Huff has started regularly for the Indians, but opponents have hit him hard, so the Indians recently demoted him to the minors. Justin Masterson has followed up a strong 2009 season with a mediocre 2010 campaign (5.33 ERA) that probably doesn't guarantee him a rotation spot next year.

It seems like Carlos Carrasco has been around for a while, but the right-hander is still just 23. Carrasco has spent the season at Triple A Columbus, where he has a 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 143.1 innings. It seems like Carrasco, who the Indians acquired in the Cliff Lee trade, will be ready to start for the Indians in 2011.

Like Carrasco, Corey Kluber joined the Indians organization after the Tribe traded away a veteran starter. The Indians obtained Kluber, who is now pitching at Akron (AA), in the Jake Westbrook trade. The 24-year-old right-hander has a season ERA of 3.61 with 9.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, though most of that came when Kluber was in the Padres organization.

Let's not rule out Zach McAllister, who the Indians acquired for Austin Kearns. The 22-year-old posted a 5.09 ERA at Triple A and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer noted on Twitter tonight that the Indians may call McAllister up in September.

Two other prospects are just as promising, but not quite as ready. Hector Rondon broke out last season with a 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in the upper minors, but the 22-year-old righty hasn't pitched since May because of forearm tightness. He is not a sure thing, but could start for the Indians at some point in 2011.

Alex White is holding his own at Akron in his first pro season. The 2009 first-rounder has a season ERA of 2.57 with 7.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 across two levels. He doesn't turn 22 until this weekend, so the Indians may want him to pick up more minor league seasoning. Some 2009 draftees – Mike Minor and Mike Leake come to mind – are already contributing in the majors, but most players take more time to develop.

The Indians also have depth in the upper minors in the form of 22-year-old left-hander Scott Barnes and 23-year-old right-hander Paolo Espino. Barnes has posted 8.0 K/9 and a 4.57 ERA at Akron and Espino has a 4.25 ERA between Akron and Columbus.

The Indians signed Carl Pavano and Kevin Millwood to short-term deals in recent years, so they could make similar offers this offseason. MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince wrote today that he "wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians shop for a free agent veteran to eat up some innings." Perhaps Westbrook could return to Cleveland, where he has spent most of his pro career. After the Indians traded him, Westbrook suggested he'd be open to re-signing in Cleveland. 

The Indians will head into 2011 with a promising but unproven group of prospects and young major leaguers, so when Chris Antonetti takes over as GM after the season, he may look to sign an innings eater to complement the team's stable of youngsters.

Randy Flores Clears Waivers

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Rockies left-hander Randy Flores cleared waivers, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). The Rockies designated the reliever for assignment Friday, so they still have the rest of this week to work out a trade. If teams aren't interested in trading for Flores, the Rockies will likely release him.

Flores makes $650K this year before hitting free agency this offseason. Just $150K remains on his salary, so you won’t find cheaper options out there. The 35-year-old has a 2.96 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 27.1 innings for the Rockies. 

Joey Votto’s 2011 Salary

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The Reds may or may not offer Joey Votto an extension this winter, but he's setting himself up for a massive raise, even if Cincinnati doesn't offer a long-term deal. Votto leads the National League in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage and is second in RBI and third in home runs. He's just three homers and three RBI away from leading the league in every triple crown category and has a 1.023 OPS since the All-Star break, so he's showing no signs of slowing down.

The Reds have enjoyed three-plus seasons of dirt-cheap production from their first baseman, but that's about to change. Votto goes to arbitration for the first time this winter and he's comparable to a group of first basemen that earned significant raises in their first seasons of arbitration.

To determine how much Votto can expect to earn in 2011, let's compare his numbers to the ones some current first basemen had entering their first seasons of arbitration. Here are the stats Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira had leading up to their first arbitration seasons, plus the salaries they ultimately agreed to. 

  Reds Votto
 

Please note that Fielder, Teixeira, and Pujols signed multi-year deals that included their first seasons of arbitration. 'Age' shows the player's age at the time of the signing, not his current age.

Votto’s rate stats are comparable to Cabrera’s, but Votto has played significantly fewer games than Cabrera had. Fellow-Canadian Justin Morneau had similar homer and RBI totals to the ones Votto has now, but worse rate stats.

Howard and Morneau, both super twos, parlayed MVP seasons into substantial raises, but Morneau settled for a modest $4.5MM salary, whereas Howard signed for a record-setting $10MM. Votto, an MVP candidate this season, could ask for something in between. It would not be unreasonable for him to seek a $7MM salary through arbitration this offseason if he keeps hitting like this.

Clayton Kershaw: Extension Candidate

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It's becoming common for teams to sign promising young pitchers to extensions, but the Dodgers haven't locked up their young arms with the same frequency as other clubs. Instead, they have generally obtained starting pitchers through free agency this decade (Darren Dreifort, Andy Ashby, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda are some noteworthy pitchers to sign with the Dodgers as free agents since 2000). 

It's not easy to develop pitching, and the Dodgers haven't had an overwhelming amount of young starters worth extending, but that's no longer the case. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have become two of the team's best pitchers, so they are candidates for extensions this winter. 

The last pitcher to sign an extension was a young left-hander, like Kershaw. It's possible that the Ricky Romero extension – a deal that was based on the ones Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo signed – becomes a model for a contract between Kershaw and the Dodgers. Here's how Kershaw's current numbers compare to the ones those three starters had when they signed their respective deals:

Clayton Kershaw
 

The pitchers are comparable, but Kershaw stands out. He is younger than the other three pitchers were when they signed extensions, he has a lower ERA, more starts and innings, a better strikeout rate and fewer hits allowed per inning pitched. Kershaw's walk rate is the one blemish on his record, but he's walking fewer batters than ever this year (3.9 BB/9). 

Romero, Lester and Gallardo were heading into their final pre-arbitration seasons when they signed their respective deals, all of which were worth $30MM or so. This winter, Kershaw will also be entering his final pre-arbitration season, but he will be in position to seek more guaranteed money. After all, he has pitched more innings, posted a better ERA and struck out more batters at a younger age. The Dodgers would do well to lock Kershaw up to a five-year $30MM extension, but Kershaw's representatives would have reason to ask for more.

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