Offseason Questions For The NL West
The Offseason In Review series is complete, and now the NL West steps up to the plate for a series of questions.
- Did the Diamondbacks upgrade in going from Max Scherzer to the more expensive Edwin Jackson? Will Brandon Webb supply five strong months and justify his $6.5MM net option price?
- Was it necessary for the Rockies to sign Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street to multiyear deals, since they controlled both for 2009 already? Are the Rockies sending mixed messages at the catcher position, signing Miguel Olivo weeks after extending Chris Iannetta?
- Was the risk of the Dodgers offering Randy Wolf arbitration worth the possible reward of the #36 and #65 picks in the 2010 draft? Can Vicente Padilla fill Wolf's shoes? Did Jamey Carroll's two-year deal represent the best use of $3.85MM?
- Could the Padres have added offense and made a legitimate run at a 2010 pennant? On the flip side, would seriously shopping Adrian Gonzalez during the offseason have maximized the return?
- Did the signings of Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez, Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, and Aubrey Huff for $34.75MM improve the Giants' offense?
Billy Beane Talks To Athletics Nation
General manager Billy Beane spoke to Tyler Bleszinski of Athletics Nation about a week ago. Check out the interview here and here. A few hot stove-related highlights:
- Beane was told the A's were the runners-up in the Aroldis Chapman bidding. He said "I think we got slightly outbid" by the Reds' six-year, $30.25MM offer to the Cuban lefty.
- Center fielder Coco Crisp, signed to a one-year, $5.5MM deal, was considered "good value relative to the cost." Beane admitted that the A's probably will not be able to afford to re-sign Crisp if he has a healthy season. While there was trade interest in Rajai Davis, Beane is looking for continuity.
- Beane was frank in saying that he expects to "follow the cycle" of the last 10-15 years if the team does not get a new venue. That implies trading Ben Sheets and/or other veterans in July if the team falls out of contention, but conversely making acquisitions if the A's are still in the hunt.
- Brad Pitt met with Beane in preparation for the actor's role in the Moneyball movie. Beane described Pitt as "very down-to-earth."
Discussion: Next Young Position Player To Be Extended
In January, MLBTR's Mike Axisa named Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, and Wandy Rodriguez as candidates to be the next young starting pitcher to be extended. Matt Cain, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, and Brett Anderson were among those mentioned by commenters. We forgot to name Scott Feldman and Nick Blackburn, who actually were extended since Mike's article.
Today let's consider young position players who could soon by locked up. Recent signees include Adam Lind, Mark Reynolds, Denard Span, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.
- Joey Votto, Reds: Votto will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season. If the 26-year-old approaches his 2009 production, the Reds will have one of the NL's best hitters on their hands.
- Ben Zobrist, Rays: Zobrist will also be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season. By measure of WAR, he was the best player in baseball last year. The Rays may be inclined to lock him up if he retains 50% of that value.
- Pablo Sandoval, Giants: He won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, so it may make sense to wait.
- Kendry Morales, Angels: Morales is finishing up a six-year free agent contract and will be arbitration-eligible after the season. Like Zobrist, he had a monster '09 and his team will probably wait at least a few months to see more of the same.
- Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince has reported that the Indians would like to sign Choo to a five-year deal with a club option but the Scott Boras client hasn't shown interest as he enters his last pre-arbitration year.
- Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians: Castrovince also mentioned Cabrera as a candidate for an extension. He too will be arbitration-eligible after the season.
- Nelson Cruz, Rangers: Cruz is an interesting case. Though he turns 30 in July, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the season. Given his age, will the Rangers choose the year-to-year route?
- Billy Butler, Royals: Butler told us in November that he's yet to have extension talks with the Royals. Butler, 24 soon, will reach arbitration after the season. Will his power continue to increase in 2010?
- Hunter Pence, Astros: He's been a solid performer for the Astros, but does his .288/.339/.487 career line warrant an extension? 2010 is Pence's first arbitration year, and the Astros will pay him $3.5MM.
- Yunel Escobar, Braves: Though the Braves once pledged not to work with the Wasserman Media Group after the Rafael Furcal drama, I'm guessing that situation won't stop them from discussing an extension with Escobar's agent. The 27-year-old shortstop reaches arbitration after the season.
- Adam Jones, Orioles: Jones fell just short of Super Two arbitration-eligibility for 2010. The Orioles will look for continued growth.
- Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks: Drew will be paid $3.4MM in 2010, his first arbitration year. The D'Backs will have to deal with Boras if they want to sign Drew.
- Kurt Suzuki, Athletics: CSNBayArea's Mychael Urban reported in March that extension talks for Suzuki are already underway. The A's catcher will be arbitration-eligible after the season.
- Carlos Quentin, White Sox: Quentin passed on an offer from the Sox around the time they offered four years and $14MM to John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Quentin signed for $3.2MM for his first arbitration year, and is looking to replicate the health and success of '08.
Offseason Questions For The NL Central
With the offseason and our team-by-team reviews in the books, we're asking questions of each club. Let's try the NL Central.
- Limited by the Milton Bradley situation this offseason, did the Cubs add enough pitching in Carlos Silva and John Grabow?
- Will Reds free agent signings Orlando Cabrera and Ramon Hernandez be upgrades over Paul Janish and Ryan Hanigan? Did the short-term gain of freeing up 2010 payroll justify adding two years to Scott Rolen's contract?
- Will Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom effectively replace LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde at the back end of the Astros' bullpen? Will free agent additions Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz lead the way in a stellar run prevention season, offsetting an apparently weak offense?
- Despite bad pitching contracts on the books, Brewers GM Doug Melvin committed $50MM to four hurlers. Will the Brewers at least cobble together an above-average staff for 2010?
- Should the Pirates have gotten something in return for Matt Capps or held on to him until his value improved? At the price of $4.85MM and Jesse Chavez, did they overpay for a year of Akinori Iwamura?
- Could the Cardinals have re-signed Matt Holliday for significantly less? Will Brad Penny blossom under Dave Duncan and justify a hefty $7.5MM guarantee?
Discussion: Brad Hawpe
At the beginning of baseball's offseason, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said that while he was willing to listen to trade offers for Brad Hawpe, the team had no desire to move its right fielder. With the Rockies looking like a strong playoff contender, there's a good chance they'll maintain that stance throughout the 2010 season. On a Colorado roster with a loaded outfield, however, Hawpe will be an interesting case going forward.
An underrated source of offensive production, the 30-year-old has been extremely consistent for the Rockies, compiling a .288/.384/.518 slash line and averaging 25 homers over his last four seasons. His play in the outfield is another story. Hawpe's -25.9 UZR/150 last season was a league-worst mark among qualifying fielders, but was actually an improvement over his -46.6 UZR/150 in 2008. Given his poor defense and his struggles against left-handers (.243/.337/.438 in 2009), Hawpe will likely cede some playing time to lefty killers Dexter Fowler and Ryan Spilborghs.
Hawpe will earn a reasonable $7.5MM salary this year. His club option for 2011, which he could void in the event of a trade, is a little pricier, at $10MM (with a $500K buyout). The Rockies could decide at year's end to decline Hawpe's option, turning instead to their younger, cheaper talent. The team has no shortage of outfield options, including Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, Fowler, and Spilborghs.
If you were O'Dowd, how would you handle Hawpe in 2010? Is he a trade candidate this season? Is his offense strong enough to make up for his defense? Are his services worth the $9.5MM it would cost the Rockies to retain him for 2011?
Odds & Ends: Giants, Beckett, DePaula, Aubrey
Some links on what promises to be one of the best days of the year…
- Chris Haft of MLB.com writes that the Giants' bench is lacking in right-handed bats, though he doesn't suggest they'll look to make a trade.
- The Red Sox have expressed reluctance in the past to sign pitchers to long-term contracts, but MLB.com's Ian Browne notes that Josh Beckett's extension means the club has four important starters under team control through 2014.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Beckett extension was directly motivated by the Red Sox' rivalry with the Yankees.
- Beckett told reporters that he focuses on the security that comes with his extension, not the money he could potentially have obtained on the open market, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- The San Francisco Chronicle had some nice things to say about MLBTR in its business report. Check it out.
- The Mariners remain the favorites to sign Dominican pitcher Rafael DePaula, according to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
- Michael Aubrey cleared waivers and was outrighted to the minors, according to an Orioles press release. The team designated Aubrey for assignment last week.
- Check out this two-sport star: the White Sox hired former Chicago Bulls GM Jerry Krause to oversee the team's scouting in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPNChicago's Bruce Levine.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette points out that the Pirates will have the lowest Opening Day payroll in baseball and asks when the future starts for the Pirates. His answer? Once Pedro Alvarez takes over third base at PNC Park. If all goes well for Pittsburgh, that could happen before midseason.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times has the Mariners' payroll at about $89MM, a little higher than USA Today's $86.5MM figure.
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that speculation that the Rangers are looking for reasons to fire manager Ron Washington is "silly."
- As Jeff Powalisz of the Boston Globe points out, Boston's free agent acquisitions are already contributing.
- Matt Stairs will become the first modern-day position player to suit up for 12 different teams when he takes the field for the Padres, as MLB.com's Corey Brock points out.
Ramon Vazquez’s Future
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reported yesterday that the Pirates have designated Ramon Vazquez for assignment. Though the move allows the team ten days to attempt to trade Vazquez, it is more likely that the infielder will be released. In that case, a new club could acquire Vazquez at a reduced cost, with the Pirates on the hook for the remainder of the $2MM he is owed in 2010.
Trade rumors surrounded Vazquez for most of the winter, with the Orioles and Rangers mentioned as possible suitors. Both teams have added utility infielders of their own in recent weeks, meaning any interest they had in Vazquez has probably diminished. However, there are still clubs that could be in the market for a cheap utility man. ESPN.com's Rumor Central points out that the Mets or Mariners might have a place for Vazquez, if or when the Pirates release him.
Vazquez signed his current two-year, $4MM deal following a 2008 campaign in which he hit .290/.365/.430 in 347 plate appearances with the Rangers. While his career numbers (.254/.328/.350) suggest lesser offensive production, Vazquez still has some value coming off the bench and playing second base, shortstop, or third base. Freed of his $2MM price tag, Vazquez should be able to catch on with another club looking to add versatility to their bench.
Brandon Moss Clears Waivers
Brandon Moss cleared waivers and was optioned to Triple A Indianapolis, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Pirates designated the 26-year-old for assignment a week ago, and had to put Moss through waivers since he's out of options, but no team claimed him.
Moss, a corner outfielder who was acquired in the Jason Bay trade, hit .236/.304/.364 last year in 424 plate appearances for the Pirates. He has been a better than average defensive outfielder in the majors, according to UZR.
Nats Content With Right Field Platoon
We've seen them connected to Jermaine Dye and heard that they've discussed trading for various outfielders, but the Nationals are in no rush to add a right fielder, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. The Nationals expect to rely on players in the organization if the Willie Harris–Willy Taveras platoon doesn't work out. Utility player Cristian Guzman, who has been playing in right, and Mike Morse are among the players GM Mike Rizzo could turn to.
The Nationals haven't had any talks with Dye, though the Brewers had interest. Ladson reports that the Nationals would not be willing to offer Dye much money.
Average Opening Day Salary Remains Steady
3:00pm: USA Today, correcting an error in their original report, now say the average player salary this year is $3.27MM, an increase of less than one percent from last year.
9:10am: The players on Opening Day rosters around the majors are making 17% less money this year than they did last year, according to USA Today. On average, players earned $3.2MM last year, but that figure is down to $2.7MM as the new season begins. Players are still earning lots, but their salaries dropped more this year than in any year since 1988, when USA Today started its survey. Let's run down some of the reasons why salaries are dropping:
- The weakened economy has slowed spending down for the past couple offseasons. Braves president John Schuerholz told USA Today that "the economy has affected all of us." When fans spend less, teams bring in less revenue and have less to spend on players.
- As Cubs outfielder Marlon Byrd points out in the article, teams are relying on lots of young talent. Players are at their cheapest before they hit free agency, so the emphasis on youth could be lowering salaries.
- Teams are more conscious of defensive stats and people like Bill James believe younger (and therefore cheaper) players tend to play better defense better than aging ones.
- Front offices are becoming more risk-averse and are less likely to hand out multi-year deals to anyone other than elite players.