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2011 Vesting Options

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Vesting options are always fun for hot stove junkies to follow during the season.  Last year we had Kevin Millwood's $12 Million Out and the Tigers allowing Magglio Ordonez's pricey option to vest.  2011 vesting options to watch this year:

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels: $9MM option vests with 55 games finished.  Fuentes has finished 55+ three times in his career, last year included.  Fernando Rodney will be lurking.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves: $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals: $2MM option vests with 45 games, but reverts to a club option with a left arm or shoulder injury.
  • Matt Cain, Giants: $6.25MM option vests with 182.3 innings or 27 starts.  The Giants will exercise this even if it doesn't vest, as the alternative will be going to arbitration with Cain and potentially paying him more.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians: $11MM option vests with 55 games finished.  A trade into a non-closing job could affect Wood's bank account.  That's three closers whose GF totals we'll be monitoring. 
  • Alex Cora, Mets: $2MM option vests with 80 starts.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers: $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances.
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds: $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.
  • Note that a game finished is given to the last non-starting pitcher of record.  Also, thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Will Jason Heyward Make The Braves’ Opening Day Roster?

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David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution makes a prediction: "Jason Heyward is going to be the Braves' right fielder on opening day."  Heyward, the top prospect in baseball, is impressing observers in every way possible this spring.  Still, he is only 20 years old and has just 50 games experience above A ball.

Projection systems, looking only at Heyward's minor league stats and not the scouting reports, call for something around a .330 OBP and .425 SLG from Heyward in the Majors in 2010 (CHONE, ZiPS).  A computer would give Heyward more minor league seasoning, under the theory that he's a lateral move from Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and Eric Hinske.  Keeping Heyward in the minors for even two weeks would buy the Braves another year of control, similar to what the Rays did with Evan Longoria in 2008.  If the Braves really wanted to save money, they could hold Heyward in the minors until mid-May to avoid Super Two status.

The Braves may feel, however, that Heyward is likely to exceed automated projections.  They may consider intangibles such as the potential fan reaction to sending Heyward down.  They may simply decide that winning is the only priority, and a full season of Heyward gives them the best chance to win.  O'Brien has heard nothing about service time manipulation from Braves officials, "publicly or privately."

O'Brien brings up an interesting point: maybe the Braves already have designs to "make a multi-year contract offer well before [Heyward] hits arbitration," reducing the importance of Heyward's service time.  Longoria certainly didn't take offense to the Rays' approach; he inked his team-friendly extension less than a week after his big league debut.

Rangers Acquire Edwar Ramirez

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The Rangers acquired reliever Edwar Ramirez from the Yankees for cash considerations, tweets Jack Curry.  Ramirez had been designated for assignment on February 28th to clear a spot for Chan Ho Park.

Ramirez, 29 this month, whiffed 10.6 per nine in his 98.3 career big league innings with the Yankees.  Walks and home runs were a problem, though not nearly as much in recent Triple A stints.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Mets.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Mets came into the offseason with needs at left field, first base, catcher, the rotation, and the bullpen.  GM Omar Minaya's approach: one big move and tons of little ones.

Bay was the major expenditure; his option has a decent shot of vesting and turning this into a five-year, $80MM deal.  The Mets also surrendered the #57 overall draft pick.  Should the Mets be praised for giving Bay three fewer years than Matt Holliday, at about $643K less per year?  Or did both teams overcommit, given an apparent lack of comparable offers?  Perhaps in both cases, the Mets and Cardinals feared that their targeted sluggers would could sign short-term deals elsewhere and they'd be left with nothing.

Though I initially liked the Escobar signing, it's already looking like a waste of $1.25MM.  In hindsight, he deserved a minor league deal.  I still like Minaya's approach to the bullpen with the low-risk signings of Igarashi, Calero, and others.

Minaya committed $1.9MM to catchers Barajas, Blanco, and Coste, which at least looks good compared to the $6MM deals given to Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall.  The Mets are probably lucky that Bengie Molina didn't take their one-year, $5.5MM proposal, but they deserve faint praise for not offering a second year.

It looks like Daniel Murphy (.274/.328/.429 projection) has the inside track on the Mets' first base job, with Jacobs in camp as a backup plan.  Minaya never seemed too keen on tossing $2MM at flawed but more interesting bats like Troy Glaus and Russell Branyan, nor did he make a play in the $6MM range for Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche.

With all the uncertainty in the Mets' rotation, I expected them to sign two starters to big league deals.  Instead, they added a couple of fifth starter candidates on minor league pacts in Takahashi and Fogg.  I don't blame the Mets for not topping Oakland's $10MM offer to Ben Sheets, but they could've been more aggressive on Joel Pineiro or Jon Garland.  The Mets have a probable rotation of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Jon Niese – and I have no idea how they'll perform or how many innings they'll provide.

The Mets are comparable to their division rival Marlins, aside from the $80MM payroll difference.  The teams project to have similar offenses, granting full health for both clubs (though I downgraded Carlos Beltran's projection slightly for the month-plus of Angel Pagan we'll see).  Both clubs also have unpredictable rotations.  I won't rule out the Marlins and Mets as contenders, but the Braves and Phillies have fewer question marks.

Viciedo Switches Agents, Positions

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White Sox director of player development Buddy Bell recently told reporters he envisions the first few years of Cuban prospect Dayan Viciedo's career panning out like those of another former defector fresh off of a breakout season, Angels first baseman Kendry Morales. Viciedo may be taking the comparison to heart, as not only has he been taking grounders at first during spring training, he has also changed agents from Jaime Torres to Scott Boras, writes ESPN's Jorge Arangure, Jr.

If Viciedo switched permanently from third to first, he would immediately become the team's top prospect at the position just as Paul Konerko enters the final season of his five-year, $60MM post-World Series contract. The question is whether the move is more than just a preseason experiment. Arangure passes along an unenthusiastic quote from the player through his translator: "My position is third base. But I'll play wherever they tell me." Viciedo seemed more upbeat when he spoke in Spanish with the Nuevo Herald's Luis Rangel:

"Although I haven't played much in that position, I'd feel fine if the change eventually materialized. I don't think I'll have problems. If they ultimately ask me to play as a starter, I'll do it."

Viciedo has yet to see Triple A action for the White Sox, and his .280/.317/.391 line at Double A Birmingham last season wasn't first base heir-apparent material. A .313/.350/.464 second half looked more promising, though still well below the power numbers Morales showed at all levels of the Angels system. And though Viciedo's defense at third base didn't garner rave reviews, trainer Jesus Gallo tells Aragure that his off-season work was geared specifically toward slimming down the bulky prospect and making him lighter on his feet in preparation of a move to first.

While Viciedo isn't the first Cuban player this offseason to jettison the agent who worked with him from defection through signing, his choice of Boras may ultimately send a more powerful message to other prospects than, say, Aroldis Chapman's switch to Hendricks Sports Management or Morales' move from Hendricks to Boras. Viciedo, according to some Cuban baseball experts, wasn't viewed on the island as a top-level talent like Chapman, and the $10MM contract he signed in 2008 caused many other Cuban players to seriously ponder their potential value for the first time.

Joe Nathan May Need Tommy John Surgery

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Twins closer Joe Nathan has a torn ulnar collateral ligament, tweets Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.  Christensen's colleague La Velle E. Neal III tweets that Nathan will wait a few weeks and try to pitch with it.  If that fails, he'll miss the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery.

As you might expect, the Twins "are considering contingency plans at closer," tweets Christensen.  It's not easy to replace a 2.00 ERA and 40 saves, which is why the Twins are paying Nathan $11.25MM this year.

The Twins have a deep bullpen; I profiled a few backup closer options a week ago.  If they decide to look outside the organization, Jason Frasor, Heath Bell, and Kerry Wood have closing experience and might be available.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports assesses the Twins' situation in this column, suggesting "the loss of Nathan transforms the Twins from AL Central favorites into mere contenders."

Odds & Ends: Smoltz, Pedro, Cardinals, Percival

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Links for Monday…

Hank Blalock Agrees To Terms With Rays

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Hank Blalock and the Rays have agreed to terms on a minor league deal worth $925K, plus $350K in incentives. The deal will allow Blalock to opt out if he's not in the majors, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com.

Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times reported (via Twitter) that the sides were near a deal and added that the deal should be finalized soon (via Twitter). Heyman reported that Blalock was deciding between the Rays and Marlins and later added that the infielder was in "serious talks" with the Rays before noting the specific details (all Twitter links). 

The Scott Boras client will make substantially less than the $6MM the Rangers paid him last year. The Marlins were the only other team linked to Blalock recently, but apparently did not make an offer.  Blalock told the Tampa Tribune (Twitter link), "Well, I didn't have any other choice. So that's why I'm here."  Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times tweets that Blalock's opt-out clause is for April 1st.

Blalock, 29, hit .234/.277/.459 last year with the Rangers, adding 25 homers. Blalock, who hasn't played more than 39 games at third since 2006, split his time between first base and DH in 2009.

Discussion: The Future Of The Rays

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In a piece for MLB.com, Hal Bodley discusses the challenge of maintaining competitive balance in baseball, using the potential payroll cut facing the Rays as an example. According to owner Stuart Sternberg, Tampa Bay may have to cut player salaries from over $70MM in 2010 to the $50MM range for 2011.

Bodley's article focuses more on revenue sharing and competitive balance around the league, but for our purposes, let's examine the Rays' specific case. In perhaps the scariest division in baseball, spending significantly less than the Red Sox and Yankees, will the Rays realistically be able to compete past this season?

A look at the 2011 free agent list reveals a few major contributors who could be entering their last year in Tampa, including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano. The club still has a strong young nucleus that includes Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, and David Price, among others, but losing a third of their starting lineup and their closer would sting.

Could the team bring back one or two of those major free agents? Crawford, Pena, Burrell, and Soriano alone will earn over $36.5MM in 2010, so even taking into account next year's arbitration raises and reduced payroll, the team could have some negotiating flexibility with that money off the books. Or they could let everyone walk, pile up a few compensation draft picks, and spend that extra money elsewhere.

So, if you're running the Rays, facing a significant payroll cut for 2011, what's your approach? If your team is slipping from contention by the trading deadline, do you shop Crawford and other players? Which potential free agents, if any, do you attempt to bring back next season?

Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.

Major League Signings: None

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

This was a typical Marlins offseason on the surface – no money spent on free agency, no arbitration offers to departing free agents, and a couple of salary dump trades.  Still, the work of president Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill warrants a closer look.

The Marlins are known for pulling relievers off the scrap heap and getting good performances.  Calero, Donnelly, and Brian Sanches were last year's minor league deal success stories.  Chances are the Fish will squeeze the best out of MacDougal, McClung, Turnbow, and Veras, and they risked nothing.  Lindstrom didn't have much trade value, as the best player the Marlins received was Jimenez (the eighth pick in the Rule 5 draft).  Lindstrom is only costing the Astros $1.625MM this year, and you have to wonder if the Marlins sold low.  In hindsight, the Marlins were right not to offer arbitration to Calero, who could only find a minor league deal and would have done better accepting arb coming off a 1.95 ERA.

Don't blame the Marlins for trading Hermida; he would've been a non-tender candidate for most teams.  The Marlins are in good shape with a Chris Coghlan–Cameron Maybin–Cody Ross outfield.  Credit Beinfest and Hill for hanging on to Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, as trading either probably would've hurt the team's chances in 2010.  There is some debate as to whether Type B free agent Nick Johnson deserved an arbitration offer, but that might've saddled the Marlins with a contract bigger than the $5.75MM deal he signed with the Yankees.  I'll reserve judgment on the Marlins' choice not to bring in a different veteran first baseman, as Gaby Sanchez comes with a passable .270/.356/.430 projection.

The Marlins had no problem investing in young talent, as they locked up Josh Johnson for four years and showed a willingness to offer $20MM to Aroldis Chapman.  It'd be overly simplistic to link either pursuit to the January 12th joint statement about the Marlins' use of their revenue sharing funds; the Johnson signing and Chapman offer were already well in the works.

Let's not get too crazy with our Marlins praise, though.  Have they "consistently made every effort to put the best product on the field," as president David Samson said in the statement?  The Marlins could point to their highest payroll in five years, a figure that will continue to rise.  But a legitimate competing team would've at least added a starting pitcher or two, as the Marlins are all question marks after Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.  I won't count out a management team that coaxed 87 wins out of $37MM last year, but on paper the Marlins don't appear to be contenders.

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