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Cubs Could Face Major Changes In 2010 Offseason

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The Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan suggests that unless the Cubs have success in 2010, the team's roster could face a dramatic overhaul next winter.  Another disappointing season like their 83-78 performance in 2009 could lead to a rebuild, which must just thrill fans of a team has gone over a century without a World Series title. 

Sullivan notes that the Cubs' core of stars are all in their 30's, so let's take a look at the ones perhaps most likely to leave Chicago should the team struggle next season.  Manager Lou Piniella is on the last year of his contract, and would almost certainly not stick around for a lengthy rebuild.  Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee are free agents, and Lee has already said he doesn't want to begin negotiations on an extension during the season.  Perhaps the most intriguing case is that of Aramis Ramirez, who has the option of voiding his contract after the season or remaining with Chicago and earning $14.6MM in 2011.  (MLBTR's Tim Dierkes broke down Ramirez's situation last month.)

On the surface, the Cubs losing three of their top players and their veteran manager doesn't look like good news.  But, if the worst happened and all four left, the Cubs would suddenly be left with a lot of open money with Lee, Lilly and Ramirez all off of the books.  The trio is set to earn a combined $40.75MM in 2010 according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, and if Ramirez opted out of his contract, that would free up the $14.6MM owed to him in 2011 and the possible $16MM that he could earn in 2012 should he reach his vesting options.  

The Cubs would still have a lot of money tied up in the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano in the short-term.  But, with the Lee/Lilly/Ramirez millions to spend and a minor league system ranked seventh in baseball by ESPN's Keith Law, a rebuilding process under a new manager (and probably a new general manager) might not be too long or painful.  It could give Chicago a chance to invest in some younger talent rather than re-sign Lee or Lilly.

Discussion: Elijah Dukes

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In the wake of his surprise release from Washington last Wednesday, it may be time to wonder if Elijah Dukes' major league career could be finished.  The outfielder's legal and personal problems have been well-documented, but Dukes had seemingly straightened himself out since being dealt from Tampa Bay to Washington in December 2007.  Over the winter, the Nationals decided that the services of James Williams (an advisor hired by the club to watch over Dukes) were no longer needed, which seemed to be the final sign that Dukes was ready to be a regular major leaguer.

Dukes had been dealing with a knee injury and had struggled at the plate and in the field during spring training, but according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, Washington GM Mike Rizzo said that the move had been in the works for a while: "This was not a knee-jerk reaction on several Spring Training at-bats. We spoke about this throughout the winter internally."  Given that the Nats awarded Dukes the starting right field job before spring training began, this statement seems curious.  Rizzo stressed that Dukes' release was a baseball-related decision only, but Ladson noted that Rizzo also said the team would now be "a more cohesive, united group."

In 1879 minor league plate appearances over six seasons in the Rays and Nats' systems, Dukes hit .280/.369/.451 — numbers that showed promise that he could develop into a solid major leaguer, especially when he delivered an .864 OPS in 334 plate appearances with Washington in 2008.  That OPS dropped to .729 last season as Dukes battled a number of injuries and couldn't stay consistent at the plate or in the field (a -9.6 UZR/150 in the outfield according to Fangraphs).

This drop in performance, combined with Rizzo's claim that he couldn't find a trade partner for Dukes, could mean that Dukes' extra baggage has finally outweighed his potential.  (Or, it could simply mean that clubs just wanted to wait for Washington to release Dukes, rather than give up a player for him.)  It will be interesting to see which, if any, team gives Dukes one final chance and signs him to a minor-league contract.  At the very least, Dukes should catch on with an unaffiliated minor league club by the summer and have try to prove himself worthy of the big leagues on the independent circuit. 

Odds & Ends: Gonzalez, Scott, Phillies, Indians

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A wrap-up of some items as we head into the weekend…

  • Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle wonders if the Athletics erred in dealing promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado.
  • MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli says that the Orioles are holding off on any potential Luke Scott trades until they see if Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold are healthy and can handle regular roles.
  • Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock tells MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that the team isn't looking at free agent relievers to fill in for the injured Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero: "We're keeping our eyes open, but we're not actively pursuing. People are calling us more than we're calling them."
  • The Indians have no interest in the recently-released Elijah Dukes, reports The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes.
  • Speaking of the Tribe, they announced in a press release that seven players were optioned to their minor league camp, the most notable of these being top catching prospect Carlos Santana.  Indians GM Mark Shapiro told Hoynes that Santana was being sent down to work on his defense, but noted that Santana will "be on an accelerated program" due to his impressive bat.  The ESPN Insider Rumors page speculates that the club may have made the move to delay the start of Santana's major league service time.
  • In the wake of Cliff Lee's suspension, abdominal strain and possible DL stint, Dave Cameron of the U.S.S. Mariner blog notes (via Twitter) that signing Jarrod Washburn as a replacement wouldn't work since Washburn wouldn't be fit for the start of the season anyway.
  • MLB.com's Marty Noble covers several topics in a reader mailbag, including how Mets prospect Fernando Martinez "is less likely trade bait now" than he has been in the past two years.
  • Arn Tellem, Hideki Matsui's agent, was originally told by the outfielder that he wanted to play in the majors for 10 years, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Matsui is about to enter his eighth season, and though his current contract with the Angels is just for the 2010 campaign, I suspect the 2009 World Series MVP will last that full decade.

Astros Not Interested In Beimel

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7:28pm: FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) passes on this quote from Beimel's agent, Joe Sroba: "Talks with [the] Mets have fallen apart.  Beimel is re-open to consider all clubs and willing to be flexible."

10:31am: Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez that his club is "more than adequately covered" with the relievers they have, so don't expect the Astros to pursue Joe Beimel (Twitter link). New additions Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom lead a bullpen that could include Tim Byrdak, Jeff Fulchino, Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias on Opening Day.

Beimel, 33 next month, has suitors even though the Astros don't need him now. The Mets and Rockies are interested in the lefty, who has yet to hear from the A's. Beimel told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he is open to signing with the Rockies.

As Tim noted yesterday, Beimel was still effective against lefthanders last year, as his 7.62 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 against them suggest. He walked more righties than he struck out, however.

Dmitri Young Retires

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Marvin Goodwin of The Oakland Press reports that Dmitri Young officially announced his retirement last night at an event in Waterford, Michigan.  Young made the announcement as he was introduced as the new vice-president and senior advisor of baseball operations for the Frontier League's Oakland County Cruisers. 

Young last played in the majors in 2008, when he posted a .280/.394/.400 line in 180 plate appearances with Washington.  The two-time former All-Star has battled wrist, back and quadriceps injuries over the last two seasons and told The Washington Times' Mark Zuckerman last September that he was trying to get back into shape but would take the winter to think about whether or not he wanted to keep playing.

St. Louis drafted Young with the fourth overall pick of the 1991 amateur draft.  In his 13 years in the majors with the Cardinals, Reds, Tigers and Nationals, Young hit 171 career home runs and had a very respectable career line of .292/.351/.475 in 5252 plate appearances.  According to Baseball-Reference.com, the 36-year-old Young made just over $52.8MM in his career.

Heath Bell’s Trade Value

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4:59pm: Former Padres GM Kevin Towers told Jim Bowden of FOX Sports that he would ask for Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere or Angel Morales from the Twins in return for Bell if he were still running the Padres (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked the three outfielders first, fifth and eighth among Twins prospects heading into the season.

FRIDAY, 1:34pm: Whether it happens now or in July, the Padres are likely to entertain trade offers for their All-Star closer. Heath Bell has value and the Padres don't appear ready to contend for a playoff spot so GM Jed Hoyer will presumably consider trading the right-hander. The Twins are eyeing Bell, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and more teams will want relievers by late July. 

Bell compares favorably to the group of relievers that signed the biggest free agent contracts this offseason. He had a lower walk rate (3.1 BB/9) and more saves (42) than Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Mike Gonzalez and posted a higher strikeout rate than everyone except Gonzalez (Bell: 10.2 K/9, Gonzalez: 10.9 K/9).

Valverde, Lyon, Rodney and Gonzalez all signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more, but Bell makes just $4MM this year. Next year, he's in line for a raise via arbitration if, as expected, his club tenders him a deal. Bell's ability and salary make him a valuable commodity on the trade market, but it's not clear what that translates into for the Padres.

When the Orioles traded George Sherrill last summer, they were working with a similar player. Sherrill was making less ($2.75MM) and the Dodgers acquired him midseason, but he was nonetheless effective, cheap and controllable through 2011, like Bell is now.

The Orioles acquired Josh Bell – now ranked by Baseball America as the organization's number two prospect – in the Sherrill trade. The third base prospect has "above-average power and a good approach" and projects to be Baltimore's third baseman before long, according to BA. Given their closer's contract status and ability, the Padres have every reason to ask for a top prospect in any trade.

Two Clubs Interested In Boof Bonser

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At least two teams are interested in Boof Bonser, sources tell Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. McAdam hears that the Cubs and D'Backs are interested in the right-hander. Bonser is out of options, so the Red Sox would have to attempt to put him through waivers if they want to send him to the minors.

The D'Backs are looking for starters, but Bonser is far from GM Josh Byrnes' only choice. Even within the AL East, there's plenty of selection. The Blue Jays (Dana Eveland and Brian Tallet) and Yankees (Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin) could deal pitching, too. 

The 28-year-old Bonser missed all of 2009 after shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and torn rotator cuff, but he has shown promise so far this spring. The Red Sox don't have room for Bonser in their rotation, but McAdam says he could make the team as a long reliever.

Bonser, who was part of the A.J. Pierzynski trade in 2003, has a 5.12 ERA in 391.2 big league innings, with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. This winter the Red Sox acquired Bonser from the Twins for Chris Province.

Dunn Has No Deadline For Extension Talks

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Adam Dunn doesn't want extension talks to drag into the summer, but he doesn't have a deadline and would be open to continuing discussions once the season starts, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Dunn makes $12MM in the last year of the two-year $20MM deal he signed last offseason. He would like to work out an extension, but says he's flexible to a point.

"If we are close to getting something done and it drags on for a couple into the season, OK," Dunn said. "But I don't want it to drag on until the All-Star Break or things like that."

He'd prefer not to hear his name in trade rumors this summer, but hasn't given Nats GM Mike Rizzo a firm date by which the possible extension must be finalized.

"It's not a deadline," Dunn said. "There is progress being made, but I don't want distractions during the season."

Like Dunn, Rizzo doesn't see Opening Day as a hard, fast deadline for an extension. Rizzo characterized talks between the two sides as "amicable and upbeat" yesterday. 


Odds & Ends: Crawford, Alvarez, Mauer, Aumont

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Some links for your Friday…

Heyman On Mauer, Beckett, Lowell

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Jon Heyman of SI.com expects Joe Mauer and Josh Beckett to re-sign with their current teams. Here are the details from his latest column:

  • Heyman hears that Joe Mauer and the Twins are willing to work on an extension once the season begins. Apparently Mark Teixeira's eight-year $180MM deal is a comparable for the Mauer talks.
  • According to a person involved in the talks, Beckett is seeking slightly more than the five-year $82.5MM deal John Lackey signed.
  • Heyman doesn't think the Red Sox can expect the Marlins to pay as much as of Mike Lowell's salary as the Rangers agreed to take on in December. The Rangers were going to take on $3MM of the infielder's $12MM salary before concerns about Lowell's thumb emerged.

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