Links to kick off the work week…
- Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo is scheduled to work out for the Diamondbacks today, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Mateo's reps don't share the Cardinals' concerns about Mateo's vision.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Rays came second in the Kelvim Escobar bidding, offering $600K. Unlike the Mets, the Rays saw Escobar as a second half contributor.
- Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post thinks stat lovers themselves "may be the new inefficiency in the market," making Adam Dunn a bargain at three years and $40MM even if his defense doesn't improve.
- FanGraphs' Dave Cameron explains why the Astros and Royals sit at the bottom of his organizational rankings.
- SI's Jon Heyman names his "bests" for 2010, with the Angels getting the nod for the best rotation top to bottom. Heyman also talks about Jarrod Washburn, considered a person of interest for Seattle.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets that the Ms are "still pondering backup catching options from outside." There aren't too many available backstops who can be considered clear improvements.
- In his latest GM's Corner video for FOX Sports, Jim Bowden gathers all the GMs involved in the Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee deals. Alex Anthopoulos mentioned that Ruben Amaro Jr. would not include Kyle Drabek or Domonic Brown when Halladay was discussed at the GM Meetings, but relented on Drabek a few weeks later.
- Dustin Parkes of Drunk Jays Fans says "the team has put its money where its mouth is" by signing Adeiny Hechevarria.
While as a Sox fan, I was a little disappointed in Heyman’s article, I understood most of the choices (best lineup, best top of rotation, etc.), except for his choice of best all-around rotation. I really do think that the Red Sox will prove that they have the best all-around rotation this year; think, that even without Dice-K to start the year, we’ll have Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz and Wakefield. Okay, I guess we have more question marks. But I stand by my teams rotation. Angels are good, but I have a feeling about this year. Red Sox 2010! 😛
Sox have 2 true number one starters in Lester and Beckett. After that there are nothing but question marks. I think the argument could be made quite compellingly that the Red “Sox” dont even have the best rotation amongst “SOX” White Sox have a more balanced and dependable staff top to bottom than the Red Sox
echo….echo….echo…echo…..
Just gonna use 2009 FIP ..
Lester – 3.15/ 3.52 K/BB
Peavy – 2.99/ 3.24 K/BB
Beckett – 3.63/ 3.62 K/BB
Buehrle – 4.46 2.33 K/BB
Lackey – 3.73/ 2.96 K/BB
Danks – 4.59/ 2.04 K/BB
Matsuzaka – 5.09/ 1.52 K/BB
Floyd – 3.77/ 2.76 K/BB
Buchholz/Wakefield – 4.69/4.58 /1.89 K/BB/1.44 K/BB
Hudson/Freddy Garcia – 5.29/3.35/1.56 K/BB/ 3.08 K/BB
Buerhle’s FIP is a little missleading sense he sort of brings gold glove defense to the table everytime he pitches. He would be one of those cases where your better of with era.
First, all of the BoSox pitchers pitch against the Rays and the Yanks – they face better competition more often than the ChiSox do. Second, Lester and Peavy are statistically negligible in difference, but Beckett far outclasses Buehrle, as Lackey clearly outclasses Danks. Third, the use of 2009 stats for Matsuzaka is highly misleading. His BoSox ERA for 2007 and 2008 is roughly 3.65, and he had injuries for all of 2009 due to “preseason activities.” Also, Mats is a contact pitcher, so his K/BB ratio is not intended to be stellar. Finally, Buchholz is either our 4 or 5 starter, and its unfair to lump Wake (also hurt in 2009) in with him. He had a 4.21 ERA for 2009, with a 1.89 K/BB. From 1 to 4, our staff is as good, if not better, than any other in the MLB. Heyman was way off on this part in picking the Angels, although I agree with all of his other analyses (Yanks (infield), Dodgers (outfield) and Phillies (balanced line up)).
But Heyman gave the Angels the best 1 thru 5 rotation, not 1 thru 4 O.o
And still FAILED.
Sox have 2 true number one starters in Lester and Beckett. After that there are nothing but question marks. I think the argument could be made quite compellingly that the Red “Sox” dont even have the best rotation amongst “SOX” White Sox have a more balanced and dependable staff top to bottom than the Red Sox
I’m surprised Jack Z didn’t get the “Best GM” tag. Everyone loves his moves.
Wagner Mateo is a little like Big Foot. You get a sighting every once on a while but there is never any substance to back it up.
As an Angels fan there is no way that I would suggest that the Angels have the best 1-5. I think the rotation is solid but unspectacular. Would have felt a lot better with Halladay instead of Saunders.
I do agree that this obsession with having A number 1 guy or top 2 is vastly overrated. Those games at the beginning of the series count the same as those at the end. Having good starters in the 4/5 spot will make a difference.
Having a number 1 guy or top 2 really matters in the postseason.
Correct but the goal is to 1st get to the postseason, once your there anything can happen (offense/player gets hot, SP/bullpen gets cold, defense makes an error or 2)
Oh, and locking up Dunn at 3/$40 would be about the stupidest thing the Nats could possibly do. If they can trade Dunn and get ANYTHING for him they should. The man belongs at DH and nowhere else. Why can’t writers get it. A run scored offensively is negated by a run given back defensively. Dunn is an outstanding power hitter and a tremendous asset on offense. It’s too bad that his glove work is soooo incredibly poor.
What makes it worse is that the Nats are wasting resources by paying him $12m this year. The fact is, the Nats are a bottom 5 team, with or without Dunn. Save your $12m and put that towards pieces that make sense from a long-term perspective.
The Angels?!?!?!?! How did the Braves not even get considered for this?!?! Oh, I know why. Because every so-called “expert” out there only goes by what happened in the previous year and absolutely nothing else matters. Derek Lowe has been one of the best pitchers in the 2000’s possessing the rare talent of being an established ace as well as a franchise closer but oh yeah that’s right, he had an off-year didn’t he? Oh silly me. And Tim Hudson is another one who has proved himself over and over and over again but that’s right he was recovering from Tommy John surgery most of last year so the two games out of seven he won in the last couple months don’t matter either right? Of course not. And God knows we can’t forgive Kenshin Kawakami for not being able to adjust right away to American baseball and lifestyle after playing Japanese ball for 13 years!!!!! And with Jair Jurrjens…WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?!?!?!? The dude won 14 games with horrid run support, it averaged 3.1 runs per game when he pitched!!!! And Tommy Hanson won 11 games through HALF A YEAR!!!! Had he been up all year the poor kid would have hit 18-19 EASY!!! But no Mr. Heyman, you are correct. Go ahead and name the Angels as the best rotation…idiot.
I don’t think the Angels should be number one, but there are enough legitimate concerns about the Braves to hold them out of the top. Lowe didn’t just have a down year. He had a down year with markedly lower velocity while turning 36 early in the season. I believe in Hudson coming back, but are you really counting on 200 innings from him? Kawakami was never advertised to be more than a solid back of the rotation starter, and that’s what he was.
IF Jurrjens or Hanson takes a major step forward (and I like and love them, respectively) AND either Hudson or Hudson is able to pitch like it’s 2008, while no one gets hurt, that’s a top five rotation, easily. I just see more likelihood elsewhere.
The comment I posted on Cameron’s article at FanGraphs about the Royals:
Pretty bad article with almost no basis to anything you say.
1. Scott Podsednick will not be playing center field. There are 3 or 4 other CF on the roster that can play it better than him, and they will play there.
2. By CHONE Projections, we’re projected to have, i think it was, the 6th best rotation in the MLB? (Bob Dutton, Kansas City Star)
3. We easily have a top 15 farm system by any measurement, and often, especially just about every ranking for the ’10 season, puts the Royals to have a top 10 farm system.
3b. In just about every top 100 prospects list, Royals are usually up top with a couple other organizations for most prospects in the list. Aaron Crow, Mike Moustakes, Noel Arguelles pretty much make most of them. With Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, and Eric Hosmer looming some.
4. I think we can all agree Betancourt sucks, but as it seems so far we didn’t lost anything with Cortes (It’s not like he’s done good this spring either — even we bashed him), as well as there were reasons why he was traded. Nevertheless, Betancourt is a better option at Short than Willie Bloomquist, who isn’t an every day starter, no matter what. But trust me, Every Royals fan, Dayton Moore, and Trey Hillman are praying for Aviles’ swift recovery by May, or earlier.
5. Taken from what I posted earlier about Jason Kendall and some exec calling him a downgrade from Olivo:
“On the Kendall issue, overall he might have been a downgrade considering he can’t hit, but the organization took a “On Base and Defense” approach. Kendall fits that motto, though not in a Joe Mauer type of way, but compared to Miguel Olivo, he’s just incomparable in both skills.
That added to the fact that some veteran presence, mainly for Wil Myers, was needed.
Nevertheless, the money was too much, I think everyone will agree on that, and that’s why it’s considered a bad signing, but not a downgrade over Miguel Olivo’s ridiculous ball-blocking skills (when you have Hochevar and Farnsworth throwing, you need a wall back there), and his constant sub 300 obp.”
6. You say Dayton Moore will trade players before they have a chance to come up? Who has he traded? [I put an X next to their name if they right before or right after the trade were arrested] [I put a Y if they suck] (X)(Y)Burgos for Bannister?..(Y)Buckner for Callapso..(X)(Y)Cortes for (Y)Betancourt..Teahan for Getz and Fields..(Y)Berroa for Juan Rivera
Then you have the Nunez for (Y)Jacobs and Ramirez for Coco trades looming around. Both questionable obviously. The Ramirez-Coco trade was the better one of the two but ended up the worse…Leo had a good year when traded but it’s not like he’s had much prior success before 08, and it’s not like he did much good in the NL.
You give Dayton Moore and the Royals no credit for turning a farm that was 24th when he took over for top 10. You give them no credit for building one of the best Latin America scouting systems in baseball. You didn’t give him much credit for one of the damn best extensions baseball has seen in Greinke. You don’t get them any credit for Rule 5’ing Joakim Soria (hell you didn’t even mention his name..in an article about the overall team..no sense huh?)..You didn’t get Dayton any credit for the extension he got Soria at. (But I mean, Considering the Astros are 30, I’m sure you loved Kerry Wood’s contract, he fits in well with FanGraphs thinking)..You failed to mention Noel Arguelles but you like to mention Scott Podsednick (in a totally misguided attack). You gave him no credit in the Teahan trade.
Giving the Royals 29th is a joke. Sure, in the end of the day, unless the team can prove otherwise, they aren’t very good. But hell above the Nationals, Pirates, and Indians at the very least. Padres fall in around there as well.
I mean it’s obvious in every article you write about Kansas City that you and FanGraphs are no fans — but before actually publishing it on the site, you should try to maybe..not be so biased due to your personal “hate” for Dayton and the organization.
royals? top 10????? also, i’d probably rather be an indians or nationals fan over a royals fan.
Top 10 farm system, and yes. Ranked #9 by Keith Law. #10 by Baseball Prospectus.
And thats just a matter of personal opinion — but if you look at it from a structural point of view: With a 10 farm system, an ace(Greinke), a closer(Soria), one star hitter(Butler). A #2 and a #3 (Meche, Bannister), above avg. hitters (Callapso, DeJesus), We’re much closer to a competing than the Indians, and possibly the Nationals (Though, the Nationals have a very nice offense, however, their payroll is also climbing daily)
bannister at 3 is a pretty big stretch but i do like some of their players. Disagree about the nationals though. They have good young pitching too. In a couple of years that rotation could be Lannan, Strasburg, and Zimmermann.
lol oook there
Another swing and miss by Heyman. The Angels? I don’t see how four number-three starters makes you the best rotation in baseball. Or is it two twos and two fours or fives? Saunders has had two years of inflated win totals and only one year of actually being very good. Pineiro’s success has been in the National League, working with Dave Duncan, with good defense, and dangerously low strikeout rates. Hell, I’d take “Felix and Lee, then Run and Flee” over them. It’s not about a team needing an ace. It’s just that there are so many teams that do or could have two really great pitchers that it’s hard to side with a team that doesn’t have one pitcher close to an ace. Maybe you get Santana and Weaver to duplicate their best years, but is that any more likely than Halladay raping and pillaging the national league while Hamels bounces back and the rest of the rotation holds its own? Is it a better bet than the depth and upside of either Sox team? Or the Yankees?
Not sure if the Phillies belong in the discussion. They’re average/mediocre behind Halladay and Hamels, and that’s if Hamels regains his ’08 form.
I’d say compelling arguments could be made for the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and Braves over the Angels. But I think Kazmir has lost it and Pineiro won’t be as good as last year…
The Angels at worst are solid (But 4 of their 5 starters are entering the age group where Pitchers most often take the next step which is the late 20s) If 2 of these pitchers improve at all this rotation is scary. Pinerio at 5 is just absurd. Also the talks that Pinerio will regress without Duncan are warranted, but if you look at him on film his delivery has changed and he relies heavily on his defense instead of trying to K batters (which he used to do. With so many games against the Mariners and A’s offense, I like his odds to stay in teh smae ERA area.
Pitchers most often take the next step in their late 20s? Shenanigans.
Hey Farva, what’s the name of that restaurant you like with all the goofy sh*t on the wall and the mozzarella sticks?
I feel like a broken record saying this, but, yet ANOTHER bone-headed article by Heyman.
At least some of the stuff he wrote this time actually made sense. But Angels for best rotation? Yeahno.
Every GM should boycott Bowden’s show on sheer principle. The fact that he held the same job that they currently occupy is a pathetic statement to General Managers in every sport. The man is a clown.
nice work by heyman….he should check out the braves. Even without vazquez they probably had the lowest combined era in the majors last year. Im a yankee
No. The Dodgers did.
seriously heyman….the number 2/3 pitcher in your best rotation had a 4.6 era….Saunders is a stud……….
Finally someone sees the Angels rotation for what it is. 1-5 they have the best rotation on paper. But the Red Sox and Yankees are right there as well. There are a lot of teams that have a better 1-2 punch. But those teams 3-5 fall off pretty quick. I think if they tighten up the playoff schedule so that the Yankees don’t play 15 games in 29 days where CC started 5 of those 15 games, then you have to look at pitching depth rather than riding 1 or 2 pitchers throughout the entire playoffs. Starting the season a little earlier too would eliminate the horrible weather in NY as well. Still scratching my head as to how they built a 1.3 billion stadium with no retractable roof. Especially considering the Yankees will most likely be in the playoffs most years sheerly based off of the amount of payroll they spend.
If Saunders and Santana pitch like they did last season, Jered Weaver can’t go 211 innings again, and Pineiro performs like he did his last few tries in the LA, they don’t sniff the top five, let alone the best 1-5 in baseball. And I don’t see what’s so unlikely about that. Weaver vastly exceeded his previous high in innings, Saunders has had one very good year in the majors, Pineiro struck out less than four and a half guys per nine in the NL last year, and Santana has sucked two of the last three years.
Saunders has had one very good year in the majors? When has he ever had a losing record in the majors? His 4 seasons, which amounts to 3 full seasons, he’s 48-22 with an ERA a little over 4. He’s not a dominant strike out pitcher like Lincecum or others, but he wins when he’s on the mound. That’s the point of playing a baseball game isn’t it? To win? Last time I checked the the teams with the most strikeouts, lowest WHIP, lowest ERA, or the highest K/9 don’t get a win. But Saunders wins 68.5% of the time he pitches. I’d like to see more than a handful of other pitchers that do that. And Weaver is 51-27 with a 3.73 era and wins 65% of the time. All of their starting pitchers have winning records. What more can you ask for? It’s not a lock that they will be good. Santana has to find a way to get back to 2008 form, and Kazmir has to find his stuff again too. And Pineiro, he will probably be a decent number 5 guy in the AL like he’s always been.
The Angels are exactly why pitcher wins aren’t a valuable stat. In a four team division, where the A’s and Rangers have been rebuilding the past few years and the Mariners were run by Bill Bavasi, the Angels had the easiest road to racking up wins of any team in baseball. Wins mean your team outscored the other team. Great for the team, but it can mean anything for the pitcher. Saunders won as many games as Zack Greinke last year. You know what that means? Nothing at all.
The entire AL West was also busy racking up wins against the AL East last year. Three of the four teams from the west had winning records against the east with the A’s only two games under.
If Manny comes back strong our outfield is clearly the best in the Game.
The Pen is top 3, number 1? Iffy.
Yeah. I have my doubts the Dodgers bullpen will as good as last year (when, statistically, it was the best in baseball)… but it should still be in the top 3. A lot will be riding on whether Belisario gets his visa and Kuo’s health. Troncoso also has to regain his 1st half ’09 form. He was mediocre the 2nd half.
But the Dodgers also have a ton of quality arms that could make an impact in the bullpen. Elbert, Wade, Leach, Monasterios, Guerra, Link, Schlichting and, if they’re willing to add him to the roster, Lindblom could be dominant.
“Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Rays came second in the Kelvim Escobar bidding…”
Or first depending on how you look at it.