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Piniella Hints That Bradley’s A Goner

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Cubs manager Lou Piniella hinted on ESPN Radio today that Milton Bradley will not play another game for the Cubs (via ESPN Chicago). The talented outfielder has two years and $21MM remaining on his contract, but Piniella suggested Bradley will spend those two seasons elsewhere.

"Now we try to find somebody else," Piniella said. "I know Jim [Hendry, the team GM] will work very hard at it."

Piniella is hardly the first one to suggest that Bradley will likely continue his career with another team. The Padres could have interest in Bradley, but the Royals won't bite. Ken Rosenthal suggested this weekend that the Giants, Rangers, Rays and Mets could all have interest in the 31-year-old.

The Cubs manager also criticized Bradley for his total of 40 RBIs. Bradley often hit second, so he didn't have as many opportunities to produce runs as some, but he failed to capitalize when given the chance; only eight of the 266 players with at least 300 plate appearances drove home a smaller percentage of runners than Bradley, who brought home just a tenth of those who reached base ahead of him.

Free Agent Market: Closers

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Looking for a free agent closer to fill your team's ninth inning void?  Let's examine the market.

  • Saves are in large part of function of opportunity, but I'll note that Trevor Hoffman leads free agent closers with 36.  Fernando Rodney has 35.  Hoffman and Rodney also rank first and second in save opportunities.  Rodney leads with a 97.2% success rate, and Hoffman is next at 92.3%.
  • Hoffman leads with a 1.76 ERA.  Then it's Valverde at 2.08, LaTroy Hawkins at 2.20, and Mike Gonzalez at 2.49.  XFIP leaders: Rafael Soriano at 3.00, Gonzalez at 3.52, and Hoffman at 3.62.
  • Soriano leads free agent closers with a 11.89 K/9.  Gonzalez is next at 11.07, and Jose Valverde checks in at 9.69.  Kevin Gregg also whiffed more than a batter per inning (9.31). 
  • Hoffman has the best control, with a 1.94 BB/9.  Then it's Hawkins at 2.35 BB/9, Soriano at 3.10, and Valverde at 3.29.  Rodney is the riskiest at 4.74 BB/9.
  • Best home run rate: Hoffman (0.35 per nine), Soriano (0.74), Gonzalez (0.87), and Valverde (0.87).  Rodney is the only real groundball artist at 56.4%.
  • Hoffman is the toughest to hit at 6.00 per nine.  Soriano (6.32), Valverde (6.40), and Gonzalez (6.84) were also stingy.  Hoffman is also your BABIP leader at .237.
  • Gregg threw the most pitches at 1305.  Hoffman had the least at 696.
  • Valverde and Rodney have the highest average fastball velocity at 95.9 mph.  Hawkins and Wagner averaged 94.2.
  • Billy Wagner didn't close this year, but he'd like to in 2010.  He's returned from Tommy John surgery to post 22 strikeouts against 8 walks in 13 innings.  Other free agent pitchers with closing experience: Luis Ayala, Danys Baez, Miguel Batista, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Betancourt, Chad Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Kelvim Escobar, Eric Gagne, Tom Gordon, Bob Howry, Jason Isringhausen, Jorge Julio, Brandon Lyon, Troy Percival, J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, Justin Speier, David Weathers, and Eddie Guardado.  Kiko Calero also merits consideration.
  • Type A free agents: Wagner, Valverde, Gonzalez, Hoffman, Soriano, Hawkins, and Gregg.  Rodney is a Type B.

Will Yusei Kikuchi Choose MLB?

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Yusei Kikuchi may decide this week between Japanese baseball and MLB, according to Bobbie Dittmeier of MLB.com.  As Dittmeier says, the hard-throwing 18-year-old southpaw would "become the first high school player to bypass Japan's draft and sign with a Major League organization."

Dittmeier says the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Braves, Rangers, Mariners and Indians have reportedly scouted Kikuchi.  She passes along a Kyodo News quote from Kikuchi's high school coach indicating the pitcher is 50-50 on his decision.

NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman has covered Kikuchi extensively.  Back in May, Newman explained to MLBTR the differences between Kikuchi and Junichi Tazawa.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Sabean, Weeks

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Tuesday linkage:

Mariners, Felix To Discuss Extension After Season

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The Mariners have agreed to sit down with Felix Hernandez's agent after the season to discuss a multiyear contract extension, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  Felix's agent, Alan Nero, stressed the lack of urgency since Hernandez is already under team control through 2011.  Nero certainly knows that Hernandez's maximum payday would come from going year-to-year two more times and then putting a 25 year-old ace on the free agent market.

Baker speculates that Hernandez's 2010 salary will shoot into the $10MM range, since it's the pitcher's second arbitration year and he's finishing a breakout season.  Baker notes:

If Hernandez and the Mariners do reach a long-term deal, buying out his final two arbitration years and extending him three to five beyond that, he could become Seattle's first $100MM player.  The Mariners say they want a deal, but have previously implied that Hernandez's camp is reluctant to sign beyond 2011. So far, the two sides have yet to even hammer out parameters for their talks.

If Baker's read is accurate, it means Hernandez is willing to sacrifice financial security and gamble that he'll remain relatively healthy for the next two seasons.  Most promising young starting pitchers have not chosen that route.  If Felix does, his free agent contract may be historic.  C.C. Sabathia owns the record free agent contract for a pitcher: $161MM over seven years, signed in December of last year when Sabathia was 28.

One positive for the Mariners is that Nero also represents Jon Lester, who signed an extension with the Red Sox in March buying out all of his arbitration years and one free agent year while giving a club option on a second. 

As for Hernandez's 2010 salary, I believe the current record for a pitcher in his second arbitration year is Cole Hamels' $6.65MM salary for 2010.  It's an imperfect comparable since Hamels was a Super Two player and that salary comes in the middle of a three-year contract.

Jeff Francoeur Craves Multiyear Deal

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Mets right fielder Jeff Francoeur would like to discuss a multiyear deal with the team to buy out his arbitration years, according to Newsday's David Lennon.  Francoeur, 26 in January, has a .308/.333/.491 line in 291 plate appearances for the Mets since coming over in the trade with Atlanta.

Francoeur is already under team control through 2011.  Given the limited sample of playing time, the Mets might be inclined to focus on a 2010 contract.  Francoeur earned $3.375MM in '09, and he shouldn't expect a huge raise as a second-year arbitration player for hitting .277/.306/.418 overall.  Even if Francoeur offered to sign a two-year, $8MM contract, the Mets would be guaranteeing unnecessary millions.

Miguel Angel Sano Lowers Asking Price

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Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano has lowered his asking price in recent weeks, according to MASN's Steve Melewski.  The Orioles admitted "things have stepped up" in their talks with Sano, but a gap remains.  (Just a week ago, Orioles president Andy MacPhail characterized the talks as on the backburner.)  Melewski heard eight to ten teams are in on Sano, perhaps large-market clubs like the Yankees and Red Sox included.  Melewski believes Sano may sign in October.  The player's age remains unconfirmed, but he's saying he's 16.

The Pirates were the frontrunner for Sano a few months ago, but Sano's agent turned down their $2.6MM offer (ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. reporting).  Since then, Wagner Mateo's $3.1MM deal with the Cardinals was voided.

Discussion: Felix Hernandez

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There are few young pitchers in the majors today more talented than Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, and the Mariners know it. There has been talk that the team intends to make a strong effort this offseason to sign Hernandez to an extension, but they did listen to trade offers for the right-hander in July. The M's have Hernandez under team control until 2011, when he becomes eligible for free agency for the first time.

The 23-year-old is a Cy Young candidate this season, posting a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 224.1 IP, while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Considering his age, his production to date, and his affordable contract (at least for two more years), it's hard to think of many players whose trade value will be higher this winter.

This brings us to tonight's discussion question: should the Mariners be shopping Felix after the season? They're set to finish in just third place in the AL West this year, but they've made strides after winning only 61 games in 2008. The Angels potentially could lose some of their main contributors (John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero) via free agency, and the Rangers' ownership uncertainty raises questions about their financial flexibility for 2010. Next season could be a prime opportunity for the Mariners to make a playoff run, rather than to deal their best player for rebuilding pieces.

On the other hand, without a couple of new bats in 2010, the Mariners' offense, which this season ranks dead last in the American League in OBP and SLG, won't give Felix and the rest of the staff the support they need to contend. Plus, the haul Seattle could demand in exchange for Hernandez would be massive.

So what should the Mariners' next move be? How much do they offer Hernandez to stay in Seattle? And if he turns down their best offer, do they open the floodgates for trade proposals?

Odds & Ends: Griffey, Harden, Guzman

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Let's have a look at a few evening links….

  • John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune notes that the uncertainty regarding Ken Griffey Jr.'s future with the Mariners could make for an uncomfortable PR situation, given Griffey's popularity in Seattle. We've already heard that Griffey would be open to returning and that the Mariners would not reject the idea. McGrath rightly points out though that it would be a mistake to bring the 39-year-old back as the same middle-of-the-order DH he was this year, since he has hit just .214/.323/.395. If the Mariners do retain Griffey, McGrath says it has to be a pinch hitter and part-time player.
  • After earlier reports that the Cubs might not be interested in retaining Rich Harden, we get a follow-up from Keith Law at ESPN.com wondering what type of deal Harden might get. Law compares Harden to Brad Penny, suggesting that, like Penny, the Cubs righty may not be able to secure a multi-year deal because of health concerns.
  • Bill Ladson of MLB.com blogs that Cristian Guzman is still unsure about playing second base for the Nationals in 2010. GM Mike Rizzo and interim manager Jim Riggleman requested the move, feeling that Guzman "no longer has the range to play shortstop."
  • The White Sox should consider keeping Jermaine Dye, according to Matt Meyers of ESPN.com. Although he acknowledges that the outfielder's declining slugging percentage and subpar fielding make for a scary combination, Meyers contends that Dye is a better fit in Chicago than anywhere else, since he could replace the departed Jim Thome as the team's full-time DH. Dye would like to return and Ozzie wants him back too, but the Sox aren't about to pick up the $12MM option just because it's the best fit for Dye.
  • Corey Brock at MLB.com talks to San Diego Padres' GM Kevin Towers about the focus on speed for the Padres. Towers believes there is such a thing as a "PETCO Park player," and that athleticism is a crucial characteristic for playing in the spacious ballpark. Given this approach, it'll be interesting to see who the Padres might target from this offseason's free agent pool.
  • Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Pittsburgh Pirates' win this afternoon once again clinched the No. 1 pick for the Washington Nationals in next June's draft. The Pirates and Baltimore Orioles are still in the mix for No. 2.

Elias Rankings Update

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At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats.  Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league.  The rankings cover a two-year time period.  They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither.  If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year.  Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law.  Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors.  Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 27th, 2009.  The rankings will change over the remainder of the season.

View the latest Elias Rankings below.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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