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Archives for October 2007

Yankees to Offer Record Setting Deal to A-Rod

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Buster Olney’s got the scoop on Alex Rodriguez:

"The offer could be for something in the range of five years — beyond the three years Rodriguez is already under contract for, from 2008-10 — and perhaps $30 million a year."

If somehow you’re behind in the A-Rod times, catch up here.  Since that post, the Yankees have requested a meeting with their third baseman sometime before his deadline (10 days after the end of the World Series) to announce whether he will opt out or not.

If the Yankees make this offer, it would be to retain the talent in light of Brian Cashman’s firm stance that if A-Rod opts out then the Yankees will not negotiate.  Also, the offer will prevent $21.3 million still due on A-Rod’s contract in subsidy from the Texas Rangers from slipping away.  Whether or not it signifies that other teams would be able to approach this record offer remains up for speculation.

$150MM extension would net A-Rod a colossal $230MM over the next 8 years.  That’s up from his current $25.2 million to $28.75 million/year, edging out Roger Clemens’ $28 million one-year contract.

Rockies Pursuing Ian Snell?

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I hate to tap from the same well twice in a row, but I felt the rumor at the bottom of Jake from Bucco Blog’s post deserved it’s own mention.  Jake writes,

"Lastly, are the Rockies going to go after Ian Snell? One NL exec thinks so.. and hard.

I was surprised when I heard this one knowing the Rockies have a pretty solid core of young pitchers in their farm, but if Dave Holliday does come to work as player development or scouting director, well…"

A lot of teams come off World Series trips with a truckload of veterans and the need to rebuild.  The Rockies are not one of those teams.  In fact, with the added confidence of a pennant (and World Series?), I wouldn’t be surprised if these now-seasoned youngsters kept competitive with the Diamondbacks up-and-coming talent over the next few years; however, they will need more starting pitching to do so (’07 starters had a 4.58 team ERA), especially if the Diamondbacks are focusing on upgrading a rotation consisting of Brandon Webb.  So let’s look at Ian Snell as a fit.

Snell can dominate.  He was arguably the Pirates best starter this year (3.76 ERA, 177 K in 208 IP), edging out Tom Gorzelanny in everything except Wins.  He will turn 26 this Tuesday and just completed his second tour of duty.  He is slated to make near-minimum in ’08, and becomes arbitration eligible in ’09-’11.  Free agency is 5 years away.  For that reason, it seems unlikely a rebuilding franchise would trade this cornerstone.  Still, Jake from Bucco Blog doesn’t consider him untouchable.

And now let’s speculate on the Rockies:  They have one of the deepest farm systems in the game, a key that will keep them competitive in the NL West.  Troy Tulowitzki has got to be untouchable.  But Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas may be at their respective pinnacles of value.  Chris Ianetta, a promising catching prospect, Ian Stewart, Franklin Morales, Jeff Baker… the list of major league ready prospects goes on.  If one team could persuade the Bucs to deal Snell, perhaps it’s the Rockies.  Thoughts?

More on Jason Bay to the Twins

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Yesterday, Joe Nathan said his re-signing was contingent on the Twins remaining competitive.  Today, Jake at Bucco Blog discusses a rumor to that fact:  The Twins’ interest in Jason Bay is real and hinges on whether or not they retain Torii Hunter.

Tim breaks it down here.  Hunter wants 5/75.  The Twins are offering 3/45.  If the they are serious about retaining him and Hunter in fact wants to stay then that discrepancy doesn’t seem insurmountable.  However, if Hunter leaves…

Jason Bay had a down year (.248/.328/.420) and yet almost certain to be dealt by new Pirates GM Neil Huntington this winter.  Shipping Bay is a launch pad for restructuring the Pirates’ system.  Tim notes the viability of a Bay for Matt Garza deal.  He’s signed for a mere $5.75MM in ’08 and an only slightly less mere $7.5MM in ’09, so the Twins would have no financial qualms if Hunter walks.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Southpaw Relievers

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Let’s take a look at the available free agent relievers this winter.  The number following the player is his 2008 age.

Jeremy Affeldt (29) – There seems to be a growing sentiment that Affeldt will get paid decently this winter.  He’s had a big-time walk problem in recent years and didn’t correct it in ’07.  A low hit rate kept his ERA under 4.00…he could be a bust.  He made $1.25MM in ’07 but could get some kind of silly three-year Scott Schoeneweis deal.

Joe Kennedy (29) – Interesting year for Kennedy, who pitched for Oakland, Arizona, and Toronto.  He made 16 starts for the A’s.  He walked more than he struck out.  If there’s a positive, it’s that he allowed only 9 HR in 110 innings. 

Ron Mahay (37) – Mahay was part of the Teixeira deal, and he pitched well for both clubs.  Like a lot of these guys, his control is poor.  But he only allowed 4 HR in 67 innings and posted a 2.55 ERA (again on the strength of a low hit rate).  He made $1.2MM this year.

Trever Miller (35) – He was very good in ’06 but his command slipped this year en route to a 4.86 ERA.  He made $1.3MM.

J.C. Romero (32) – The Phils picked him up after the Red Sox released him, and he did a nice job with a 1.24 ERA in 36 innings.  But his success was owed to an absurdly low and unsustainable hit rate of 3.72 per nine innings.  Romero still walked a ton of hitters, as is his custom.  Romero’s agent has talked to the Phils but isn’t optimistic.  He should get at least $2MM per year from some team.

Ron Villone (38) – He wasn’t really much worse than any of these other bums.

There are others to consider as well, vets like Mike Myers and Eddie Guardado.  There’s no reliable Jamie Walker type here, but Mahay may be the best of the bunch.  Any team that gives a three-year deal to any of these types probably doesn’t know what it’s doing or has too much money to spend. 

Odds and Ends: Abreu, Beckett, Helton, Schilling

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Friday afternoon rumor tidbits…

  • The Indians will probably let Kenny Lofton leave while exercising Joe Borowski’s $4MM option.  No big surprise there.
  • Nor is it a surprise that the Yankees are heavily leaning towards exercising Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option.
  • From the what might’ve been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett.  One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish.  Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP).
  • From that same department – Tom Gage notes that the Tigers once nearly acquired Todd Helton for Tony Clark.  There were many Clark rumors from 1999-2001 before the Red Sox claimed him off waivers.  I heard Buck and McCarver talking recently about how Helton is not a product of his home park.  For the record Helton has hit .368/.474/.668 at home in his career and .304/.409/.515 on the road.  He probably belongs in the Hall but it would be a lot tighter if his career OPS was .924 instead of 1.014.
  • Nick Cafardo makes his case for the Red Sox to re-sign Curt Schilling.
  • A scouting look at Hiroki Kuroda, plus other Japanese pitchers who may come over (hat tip to MetsBlog).  Jason Churchill estimates a three-year deal for Kuroda at $9-11MM per.
  • How would you like to face a 125 mph fastball?

Giants Interested In Kosuke Fukudome

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According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Giants are "seriously interested" in Kosuke Fukudome.  The Padres will be in on him as well.  Shea picked up this chatter from Japanese media at the World Series.

McCovey Chronicles is cautiously intrigued, but only around a 3/24 level.  Mike Plugh has speculated that Fukudome could cost $12-15MM over three or four years, but that was written in May.  Fukudome saw his power production decline and finished the year with elbow surgery.  Still, .294/.443/.520 is a great baseline even if it translates to 15 HR power.

This isn’t the first time the Giants have been linked to Fukudome.  Susan Slusser mentioned the possibility in early September.  Other teams said to be in the mix: the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, White Sox, and Padres.  I’m sure that list will continue to grow.  Perhaps the Yanks will exit the picture since they plan to exercise Bobby Abreu’s option.

Carlos Silva Wants Four Years

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UPDATE, 10-26-07: Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune debunks Walters’ report of the offer.  No offer has been made to Silva, though 3/21 sounds like a reasonable starting point.  Christensen also has some Torii Hunter tidbits regarding a cryptic quote he made.

FROM 10-24-07:

Charley Walters notes today that the Twins offered Carlos Silva a three-year deal worth slightly more than $7MM per year.  That offer attempts to equate Silva with Miguel Batista, Adam Eaton, and Jason Marquis from last year’s free agent starting pitcher class.

However, Silva wants a four-year contract.  Rightfully so.  Last year Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, and Jeff Suppan received four years or more.  We can toss out the unique situations of Igawa and Dice-K, leaving Lilly, Meche, and Suppan as Silva’s comparables.  Silva is younger than any of them and his fine 2007 sets the bar at four years, $40MM.  Stretching that to $42-44MM would not be ridiculous.  Silva shouldn’t be compared to the three-year group given his age, effectiveness, and health.

Silva’s supposed status as a Type B free agent should make him more attractive as well.  Last summer, teams such as the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets had trade interest in him. 

Epstein “Sure” Lowell Will Be Re-Signed

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Here’s what Theo Epstein had to say on Mike Lowell last night:

(Re-signing Lowell is) a priority for the offseason, and I’m sure we’ll be able to get something done.  We have a desire to keep him here a long time. He’s a core member of the organization. It’s just not the time to talk about that.

Does a long time mean three years?  It’s hard to see Lowell accepting a deal for two.  Lowell didn’t want to talk about the situation either last night, understandably.  But his reaction to Epstein’s comments was reserved.

If the Red Sox win the World Series, perhaps the Red Sox will be "forced" to go beyond what they consider a reasonable number of years, as happened with Jason Varitek.

Could Reds Pursue Prior, Wood?

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Dusty, Prior, and Wood back together again?  Chris De Luca’s article today discusses the possibility, though it should be classified as speculation.

New Reds manager Dusty Baker apparently keeps in touch with his former 1-2 punch, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.  Baker would like to know exactly what was wrong with Prior’s shoulder, if he is going to be blamed for it.  As a 22 year-old in 2003, Prior ranked third in the game in Pitcher Abuse Points per start.  Wood ranked first (and rankings don’t take the postseason into account).

De Luca notes that the Cubs are likely to non-tender Prior, who would have to be paid at least $2.86MM otherwise.  I’ve contended that Prior remains worth that small investment for 2008, but De Luca’s sources speculate that he might not be ready until June.  That would change things.  There’s been some speculation that Prior could sign with his hometown Padres if the Cubs cut him loose.

As for Wood, he looked solid in 24 innings after experiencing a miracle recovery.  De Luca suggests that Wood, who is a free agent, would have to go to another team if he desires a chance to start again.  A lot of folks are advocating Wood as some kind of swingman bargain this winter.  I’ve always been a fan of the guy, but counting on/paying him for even 50 innings from him is very risky.

Coco Crisp For Kelly Johnson?

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UPDATE: O’Brien spoke to "a person who should know" with the Braves and this one’s not happening.  I think we were all skeptical from the start.

There’s a rumor making the rounds: the Red Sox may offer Coco Crisp to the Braves for Kelly Johnson.  Right now this is fourth-hand information – Buster Olney allegedly said it on a radio show on Wednesday, and one Braves fan heard the report and posted a comment to David O’Brien’s AJC blog.  O’Brien hadn’t heard the rumor himself, but found it plausible.

This is an interesting proposal to examine, whether or not it’s legitimate.  Let’s try to figure out how each team would view this.

Johnson turns 26 in February.  He was a shortstop in the early minors, but had become a left fielder for the Braves when he came up in ’05.  That’s an interesting conversion.  It was likely tied to his elbow, on which he had arthroscopic surgery in early 2006.  The elbow was still barking in May of that year, leading to Tommy John surgery.  After non-tendering Marcus Giles last winter, the Braves had Johnson learn second base and used him there in ’07.  Johnson responded with a breakout .276/.375/.457 line (16 HR, 79 walks in 147 games).  Trading Johnson might be reason to keep Edgar Renteria.  Seems more sensible to trade Renteria. 

Even if the Red Sox aren’t sure where to use Johnson or even whether to keep him, this would be a nice acquisition.  Could his surgically repaired elbow handle demanding throwing positions like third base or even shortstop?  Does he have the range for short and would the Sox move Julio Lugo to the bench?  Or maybe Dustin Pedroia could move back to short for ’08 and Johnson would remain at second base.  Bottom line – Johnson is cheap, good, and could improve the infield somehow.

The Braves won’t try Jeff Francouer in center next year; they’re highly likely to acquire someone to fill Andruw’s void.  Crisp is less risky than most of the free agents out there given the modest $11MM committed to him for 2008-09.  His offense doesn’t add much, while his defense this year has received accolades.  Still, the Braves would be adding more than $4MM in salary for ’08 with this swap.  We aren’t sure yet how much the Braves plan to increase their $84MM payroll.  Adding Tom Glavine would have to cost around $10MM alone, and the Braves want another starter beyond him.

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