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Archives for October 2007

Twins Exercise Nathan’s Option

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An easy decision for Bill Smith – the Twins exercised Joe Nathan’s 2008 option for $6MM today.  Nathan will earn about half the salary he’s worth, but we haven’t heard any complaints from him.

The two sides have talked on and off about an extension for some time now.  I have to think 4/40 would be the bare minimum home team discount Nathan would accept.  Spending even that kind of money on a closer doesn’t seem to be the Twins’ style, so maybe they will explore a trade.  It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Nathan just play out his last season as Torii Hunter did.   

Twins Rumors: Hunter, Silva, Slowey

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A couple of Minnesota writers offered speculation today on the Twins’ plans.  Let’s discuss.

  • La Velle E. Neal III expects Torii Hunter to file for free agency today.  Meanwhile Ed Thoma sees the White Sox, Rangers, and Cubs as the top contenders.
  • Neal likes the idea of trading for Coco Crisp to play center for the Twins.  Personally I would search for a more offensive-minded guy, but as Neal says Crisp could work if big improvements are made at 3B and DH.  Thoma expects the Twins to fill this void by trading Boof Bonser or Kevin Slowey, with the Mets, Rays, Reds, and D’Backs as possibilities.  That seems to imply a deal for Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Rocco Baldelli, Ken Griffey Jr., or Carlos Gonzalez.  Actually Griffey seems unlikely…Ryan Freel maybe?  You tell me.
  • Thoma also predicts that the Twins extend Johan Santana for 5/100.

Boston Globe Notes: Schilling, Kuroda

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A few notes from recent Boston Globe articles…

  • Curt Schilling recently posted at Sons of Sam Horn regarding his future.  Nothing has changed – he’d still like a one-year deal from the Red Sox but failing that he wants to join a winner or play for a team with young pitchers to tutor.  He mentions that "dollars will be a significant factor" if he leaves Boston.  The SOSH threads can be found here and here.
  • Sounds like the Cubs were more than just interested in Hiroki Kuroda last winter – they may have made an offer.  He considered a deal with the Cubs but stayed in Japan for personal reasons.  The Cubs and Mariners are considered the top contenders for him this winter.

A-Rod Aftermath

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Lost in the shuffle of Alex Rodriguez’s opt-out media frenzy – the Yankees should be able to snag some nice draft picks for him.  They’ll undoubtedly offer him arbitration, and he’ll decline that offer.  If that does happen and he’s signed by the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox, the Yankees will get that team’s first-round pick.  The Giants and Dodgers’ first round picks are protected however.

Joel Sherman names the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers as teams to watch in this bidding war.  Kat O’Brien adds the White Sox to the mix, while Peter Abraham adds the Giants.  My best guess is the Halos.  Another thought – does it have to be Lowell or A-Rod for Boston?  Couldn’t it be both if they believe Rodriguez can play a capable shortstop?

The Yankees’ Next Third Baseman

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Peter Abraham hasn’t taken much time to move on from Alex Rodriguez, already listing out his third base possibilities for the 2008 Yankees.

Abraham starts with the one viable free agent option in Mike Lowell.  He adds three trade candidates in Joe Crede, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Beltre.  And he finishes with two internal candidates in Wilson Betemit and Robinson Cano.

They should all be on the radar although I don’t see the Mariners parting with Beltre.  Anyone else we can add to the list?

Among free agents, only Mike Lamb remains as someone who could be league average.  The Yanks could always sign Lamb and make their splash elsewhere, like with a Johan Santana trade.

Other trade options on my mind and in the comments of MLBTR readers: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen, Chad Tracy, Mark Teahen, Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Aramis Ramirez.  Tejada and Ramirez seem unlikely for various reasons, but this is meant to be an inclusive list.

I like the Crede idea (interesting that he’s a Boras client).  He had back surgery in June and hopes to be ready for the start of the season.  He’ll be earning around $5MM in a contract year.  How about some sort of Crede for Johnny Damon swap?

Alex Rodriguez Opts Out

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Let the hot stove insanity begin.  Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his contract with the Yankees, according to Scott Boras.  The timing is odd – most folks expected A-Rod to wait until the November 10th deadline.  Boras must be confident that multiple clubs will turn this into a historic bidding war.  The Red Sox will certainly be flush with cash with another World Series win.

The reasoning cited by Boras is suspect – uncertainty over Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte.  Also interesting is that Boras did not communicate the decision to Brian Cashman directly, rather leaving a voicemail for him.

Just yesterday Buster Olney was saying the Yankees were set to offer Rodriguez a five-year, $150MM extension to result in a total of $230MM over eight years.  The sides never met and the offer was never officially made.  As you know, the party line from the Yankees has been that they would not negotiate with Rodriguez if he opted out and they lost the Texas money.  If the Yanks can’t sign Mike Lowell, maybe they’ll attempt to trade for Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, or Miguel Tejada. 

The Rangers save more than $20MM in payments on the contract, increasing their chances of signing Torii Hunter.

Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard

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Sunday morning minor rumor collection…

  • There’s always some skepticism from readers regarding Charley Walters rumors.  Nonetheless I’ll report that he names the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams that will bid for Torii Hunter.  I don’t see the Braves getting involved at $15MM per.  And are the Dodgers ready to move Juan Pierre to left field already?  The other clubs named seem reasonable.
  • As expected, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Antonetti for their open GM position.  No doubt it’s an attractive position but you have to wonder what kind of autonomy he’d have with Tony La Russa around.
  • Larry LaRue makes the case for the Mariners tendering a contract to Horacio Ramirez.  He also notes that Jose Guillen is as good as gone and the Ms won’t consider A-Rod.
  • Speaking of that guy, Bill Price suggests the Mets should sign him and move David Wright to first base.  Carlos Delgado I suppose would be a very expensive pinch-hitter in 2008. 
  • Nick Cafardo expects the Orioles to shop Miguel Tejada this winter, which would surprise no one.  But he’s also hearing that Erik Bedard could be available.  Trades of either might be unpopular with the fanbase.  The trade market for starters could be hopping if Johan Santana, Bedard, and C.C. Sabathia are made available.
  • Joel Sherman says Koji Uehara is a free agent, but we have heard differently.  Anyway, the success of Hideki Okajima may create a minor bidding war for Hitoki Iwase.

Should Cards Pursue A.J. Burnett?

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Viva El Birdos has a well thought-out discussion of the prospect of the Cardinals trading Chris Duncan for A.J. Burnett.  I have a few thoughts to add.

In my opinion Burnett effectively has a one-year deal, only worse.  That’s because he has the ability to opt out after the 2008 season.  So one of two things will happen:

1. Burnett is healthy enough to pitch 170+ innings, opts out, and secures a four-year deal somewhere.

2. Burnett is not healthy enough to pitch 150 innings and chooses to accept the $24MM owed to him over the 2009-10 time period (I consider 150-170 innings a gray area).  If a team trades for Burnett, endures an injury-plagued ’08, and is then saddled with further burden, that’s worse than a straight-up one-year commitment like Jon Garland’s. 

My other thought is that Duncan is not a fit for the Jays.  They’re locked in with Lyle Overbay at first and Frank Thomas at DH.  Between Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Alex Rios, the outfield corners are covered.  The Jays’ biggest need is a shortstop, also a need of the Cardinals.  I suppose Duncan could be part of a three-way deal. 

A takeaway, as noted at VEB, is that Burnett may well be the one available pitcher with #1 potential not named Johan Santana.  Another good point of theirs – he’s probably worth $12 mil as a 165 inning pitcher.

Needs and Luxuries: San Diego Padres

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As promised, here is the Padres’ entry in the Needs and Luxuries series.

C – Josh Bard
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Matt Antonelli
SS – Khalil Greene
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF – Scott Hairston
CF – Jason Lane
RF – Brian Giles

SP – Jake Peavy
SP – Chris Young
SP – Greg Maddux
SP – Justin Germano
SP –

Setup: Heath Bell
Closer: Trevor Hoffman

Needs

The 2007 Padres were 15th of 16 NL teams with a .322 OBP.  They were 12th with a .411 SLG.  Those numbers may be misleading – looking only at road games, the Padres were 6th in OBP and 3rd in SLG.  Still, you’d like to have a few regulars top a .760 OPS at home next year (no one pulled it off in ’07).

Center field, left field, and second base are question marks heading into ’08.  There are viable in-house options.  Antonelli was named "the best second base prospect in the game" by Kevin Goldstein after a breakout year.  He played college ball; he’ll be 23 in April.  He’s only got 49 games of Double A experience under his belt, so the Padres could bring in some veteran competition this spring.

Hairston and Lane are both interesting outfield candidates, perhaps for a left field platoon.  If Hairston can stay healthy he may finally establish himself as a regular.  Kouzmanoff could enter the LF mix as well with third base prospect Chase Headley coming on strong.  Intriguing one-year option: Barry Bonds.

As for center field, that’ll be filled from the outside.  Kosuke Fukudome could play there for a year and shift to right field after that.  Kevin Towers may make a huge one-year offer to Andruw Jones; Boras has scoffed at the one-year idea but you never know.  Trading for Coco Crisp doesn’t make sense; the Friars need to add offense.  Aaron Rowand could be a consideration.   

It’ll be interesting to see how Kevin Towers fills his fifth starter spot.  He could sign Josh Towers if he’s non-tendered.  He could go for rehab projects like Matt Clement, Mark Prior, or a million others. 

Luxuries

Towers continues to create solid relievers out of nowhere.  Many have seen success vanish after San Diego, but there will still be a market for guys like Heath Bell (1.46 ERA in 49 road innings).  The Padres could use Bell to pursue Adam Dunn or Jason Bay.  It would take more, but that could be a starting point.

Kouzmanoff or Hairston could also be expendable.  Chase Headley hit .330/.437/.580 in 433 Double A at-bats and plays solid defense (Kouz does not, by most accounts).  Kouzmanoff has more value than Hairston right now, and this is a great time to have an extra third baseman.  The Twins and Phillies could have interest.  After an awful April, Kouzmanoff hit .303/.355/.504 in 110 games.

The Padres entered ’07 with a $58MM payroll, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see $10-12MM added to that.  Expect one major acquisition this winter, with Fukudome the favorite.

Giles Released, Snelling Claimed

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Some odds and ends to catch us up in the minor-moves department:

  • ESPN reports Marcus Giles was released by the Padres after an abysmal .229/.304/.317 in 420 at-bats.  They declined his $4MM club option and bought out his contract for $500,000.  He joins the 2B free agent market on the lower end of the talent spectrum.
  • The Mercury News notes Oakland OF Chris Snelling was claimed off waivers by Tampa Bay.

Posted by Nat Boyle

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