Fantasy baseball never stops, in my opinion. That’s why I try to write something new at RotoAuthority every day. The latest posts:
Archives for September 2007
Boras Starting Lohse Pitch Early
We’ve been interested in Kyle Lohse for a while now, anticipating his upcoming free agent payday. I wrote an extensive post about him in April of this year. One can easily paint a picture of a hothead who couldn’t hack it in the American League.
Not if you’re Scott Boras though. Here’s Boras’ spin:
- "I think Kyle Lohse is going to be very (attractive) because he’s one of the few guys that are in that batch of 27-, 28-year-old arms." Lohse turns 29 in a few weeks.
- "And the other thing about Kyle is, he’s been durable." This is true – Lohse has never been on the DL. Though he’s only topped 200 innings once in his career, in 2003.
- "He’s pitched in the playoffs." Mostly in relief, but he did toss 12 solid innings over 2002-04.
- "He’s got a resume a lot of teams will look at because he’s been successful." Lohse has been above average in the National League, that much is true.
Lohse could return to the Phillies, but it looks like he’s headed to the highest bidder. I don’t fault him for that. In April I said that his contract could fall between Jason Marquis’s 3/21 and Gil Meche’s 5/55. The midpoint? Ted Lilly’s 4/40. Lohse has called the AL "arena baseball," so look for him to stay in the NL. The Cubs and D’Backs have a strong relationship with Boras, while the Padres, Braves, Astros, and Giants aren’t big fans.
Garland Expects To Be Traded
Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times has some quotes from 28 year-old White Sox starter Jon Garland. Basically, Garland expects to be traded this winter. Cowley also pokes fun at Garland’s laid-back attitude, which seems to be a sore spot in Chicago.
If nothing else, Garland is consistent. He’s never been seriously injured. His strikeout rates are usually around 4.8 per nine each year. He typically has good control. The most random part of his stat line is hits allowed, as you would expect. A hit-lucky year in ’05 had some thinking he could be an ace. That performance helped him snag his three year, $29MM contract.
Garland will make $12MM in ’08 in the last year of the deal. I’m not sure that the White Sox can afford the hit to their staff, but they probably need to take some chances if they are to win next year. Garland can help fill holes while clearing a nice chunk of payroll. Last we heard, Kenny Williams would seek two relievers in return at the least. Among teams with recent interest: the Red Sox, Rockies, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies.
Who’s Retiring?
We’ve seen many stories in the last few days where players stated when they planned on retiring. Let’s review.
- Gary Sheffield will be done after his upcoming two-year deal. That’ll take him through the 2009 season and age 40. Sheff believes his shoulder will hold up that long, but I’m skeptical.
- Here’s an option we didn’t discuss: Moises Alou. He says he’ll retire if the Mets don’t pick up his $7.5MM option for ’08. Playoff heroics could encourage them to do so; Alou can still mash when he’s out there. 2008 will be Alou’s age 41 season.
- Rudy Seanez has had a good year for the Dodgers and wants to play in ’08 as a 39 year-old. He’ll stick with the West Coast, probably the Dodgers or Padres again.
- Reggie Sanders could be Seanez’s teammate next year. If he plays, it’ll have to be for a winning West Coast team. The Kansas City Star also mentions that the Royals were set to receive Melky Cabrera for Sanders last year before Sanders got hurt. Is that true? Wow.
- As we’ve written, Omar Vizquel wants to come back to the Giants next year.
- Cliff Floyd’s a 34 year-old in a 40 year-old’s body. He’ll probably retire if and when the Cubs win the World Series this year. In the unlikely event the Cubs don’t win it all, they’d be Floyd’s first choice for ’08. Otherwise he might consider a guaranteed deal to play in the AL (DH would make sense). Family concerns might cause him to retire regardless though.
- Mike Piazza wants to return for his age 39 season. No hard feelings if the A’s don’t want him back. The NL is up for consideration if he’s physically able to play catcher.
- We covered the Tom Glavine options here.
- We’ve also talked about Andy Pettitte’s plan: Yankees or retirement in ’08.
Giants Hope To Bring Vizquel Back For ’08
According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, there are "strong indications" that the Giants want Omar Vizquel to man shortstop for them in 2008. Vizquel is earning $4MM this year; perhaps $3MM or so would get it done for next year. Vizquel would like to come back. If his goal is 3,000 hits, though, that will take at least three more seasons.
Retaining Vizquel is not what I suggested in my Giants Needs and Luxuries post a few days ago. I understand that Vizquel’s sparkling defense helps the pitching staff and his veteran leadership can’t be measured. (Though one could make the argument that the pitching staff would be equally if less directly helped by a shortstop with some offensive value).
My ’08 Giants are committed to rebuilding, and that means giving Omar’s 600 plate appearances to a young player. Even if the Giants don’t specifically have a shortstop prospect ready to go, they can get more ABs for Kevin Frandsen if Vizquel isn’t around. I likened it to Ryan Theriot, who also probably doesn’t have the arm for a long-term stint at shortstop but can get it done. Or, the Giants can attempt to trade for their shortstop of the future this winter.
All that said, keeping Vizquel for ’08 wouldn’t be terrible. I wouldn’t do it, but there are sensible reasons to bring him back at a discount for one more season.
2008 Club Options
My, how things change. Check out this post about 2008 club options, written back in April. It’s time to alter the predictions on many of these with most of the 2007 season in the books.
Ivan Rodriguez – $13MM with a $3MM buyout. Sounds like this will be Exercised, based on the latest reports.
Adam Dunn – $13MM with a $0.5MM buyout. Redleg Nation urges the Reds to pick this up, and I agree. Then again, Dan Graziano said a month ago it’s "hard to see" the Reds exercising it. At the least an exercise-and-trade seems in order, but then Dunn would have full no-trade protection until June 15th. I say it’s Exercised, even if Jay Bruce is awesome.
Marcus Giles – $4MM. No chance. Declined.
Juan Uribe – $5MM. This is still up in the air but I think the White Sox will move on, whether to David Eckstein or Miguel Tejada. Declined.
Cesar Izturis – $5.45MM. I was impressed and surprised that the Cubs didn’t give a ton of PT to Izturis just because he was the return for Greg Maddux. I can’t see the Pirates’ new GM exercising this, in any case. Declined.
Geoff Jenkins – $9MM. He’s been sitting against lefties a lot, and has had an OK year. But this seems too steep even as an exercise-and-trade. Gabe Gross is ready for regular duty, so look for Kevin Mench to be non-tendered as well. Declined.
Bobby Abreu – $16MM with a $2MM buyout. Exercised, as discussed earlier.
Jose Guillen – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout. The smart move would be to exercise this and then move on in ’09, but that won’t work because Guillen can void it and forfeit the buyout. Which he would. Why even have the option then? Last we checked the Mariners were working on an extension with him. Declined.
Shawn Green – $10MM with a $2MM buyout. Even at an effective $8MM this is easily Declined. Green may choose to retire if no one wants him to play regularly.
Randy Wolf – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout. Wolf signed a below-market deal to play in L.A. last winter; he could’ve gotten two or even three years guaranteed. The option will definitely be Declined but Wolf hopes to return at a lower salary.
Paul Byrd – $8MM with a $0.25MM buyout. After ’06 I thought this was an easy decline, but it’s the complete opposite given Byrd’s fine season and various struggling Indians. Exercised.
Kris Benson – $7.5MM with a $0.5MM buyout. Rotator cuff surgery knocked him out this year. Declined.
Odalis Perez – $9MM with a $1.5MM option. Finished for the season with a knee strain. Regardless he’s not worth $7.5MM. Declined.
Jason Isringhausen – $8MM with a $1.25MM option. The Cards want to scrap this and give him a deal for 2008-09. So technically it would be Declined.
Mark Ellis – $5MM option with a $0.25MM buyout. Ellis has had a solid year, hitting .276/.339/.437 with 17 HR in 529 ABs. He’s also known for playing fine defense at second base. But the A’s are cost-conscious and could fill the position internally with Donnie Murphy. Ellis at $5MM might have some trade value given the fairly weak market for second basemen. I’ll lean toward Exercised.
Octavio Dotel – Player option to reach $6.1MM if he reaches 25 games finished (currently has 23). Club may void option if he exercises it. This is an interesting scenario. Dotel got $5MM guaranteed last winter when he was a huge question mark. Would he set his own value at $6.1MM? And if does, would the Braves as well? Dotel’s player option is like Jose Guillen’s where in all likelihood it means nothing. My guess is that Dotel opts for the open market, hoping for a 3/18 deal on par with Danys Baez’s. Declined.
Steve Trachsel – $4.75MM with a $0.1MM buyout. Normally I would say this is an easy decline. But in this day and age, 160 innings of 4.75 ERA ball might be deemed worth it by some clubs. Probably not though – Trax is still probably valued close to this year’s $3MM salary and wasn’t a hot commodity last winter. Declined.
Opinions? Borderline players I’ve missed?
Yanks Likely To Exercise Abreu’s Option
Bobby Abreu has a $16MM option for the 2008 season with a $2MM buyout attached. Effectively, it’s a $14MM decision for Brian Cashman. Despite an awful start to the season, Abreu has solid counting stats and a .287/.367/.454 line overall. Since June 1st, he’s hitting an elite .320/.398/.548 in 347 ABs. Abreu will turn 34 in March.
According to both Buster Olney and Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, the option is a virtual lock to be picked up. Most teams would be very eager to sign Abreu on a one-year, $14MM deal, and that’s what this amounts to. Abreu would be much easier to trade than Johnny Damon, if Cashman wants to take that route.
Wolf Hopes To Return To Dodgers In ’08
According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Randy Wolf would like to return to the Dodgers for the 2008 season. Last winter, the Dodgers snagged Wolf on a below-market $8MM deal with a $9MM club option for ’08. Wolf expects them to decline the option. His season was abbreviated by shoulder surgery.
As Hernandez mentions, the Dodgers appear to be set with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Chad Billingsley, and Esteban Loaiza for the ’08 rotation. But how many times have we seen a team go all year starting only its Opening Day five? Wolf at $4-5MM is an excellent signing. He says he feels like he didn’t even have surgery.
The Dodgers should sign Wolf, and then use he or Loaiza in relief until a spot opens up. Penny always wears down; maybe the Dodgers could use their sixth man to get him an extra day’s rest more often. Billingsley might pitch around 150 innings this year, meaning you wouldn’t want to take him past 180 in ’08. Loaiza and Schmidt are both obvious health risks. Hopefully Ned Colletti doesn’t pass on a bargain-priced Wolf to add depth for ’08.
Terry Ryan To Step Down
This was unexpected. Twins GM Terry Ryan will step down from his post after the season with 12 years under his belt. The Twins have a press conference scheduled this afternoon.
I could write a novel trying to dissect Ryan’s actions. But in recent years he’s made more poor choices than wise ones. He’s repeatedly signed bad veterans in lieu of giving jobs to ready young players, and has often failed to fill key needs via trade.
Blue Jays, Stairs Talking Extension
39 year-old 1B/LF/RF Matt Stairs is having a remarkable year – he’s hitting .310/.385/.591 in 303 ABs for the Blue Jays. Granted, he’s been sitting against lefties most of the time, but he’s still been the Jays’ second-most valuable offensive player behind Alex Rios. And he’s earning less than a million bucks this year.
Stairs, a Canada native, would like to return for 2008. According to the Toronto Star, talks have begun. It definitely makes sense to keep him around for $2-3MM. He can help out at both outfield corners, first base, and DH. Bringing Stairs back for ’08 might encourage the Jays to non-tender Reed Johnson, a possibility mentioned in the team’s Needs and Luxuries post.
