I’ve added a new link on the sidebar under MLBTR Features called GM Trade Profiles. So far I’ve looked at Kenny Williams, Brian Sabean, Kevin Towers, and J.P. Ricciardi. Who would you like to see next? Maybe down the road I’ll do the same GM evaluation in regard to free agents and waiver pickups.
Archives for April 2007
J.P. Ricciardi Trade Profile
Tonight I decided to take a look at the trading habits of Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, who was hired in November of 2001.
Ricciardi made an array of trades soon after his hiring: out were Billy Koch, Alex Gonzalez, Paul Quantrill, Cesar Izturis, and Brad Fullmer. His only notable returns from those five were Eric Hinske and Felix Heredia. The Koch for Hinske deal was fairly even, as both players performed well in 2002. I’d consider the Heredia acquisition a mild win. Ricciardi lost in the Izturis/Quantrill deal, in that highly regarded young pitcher Luke Prokopec broke down. He also lost the Fullmer trade, as Fullmer helped the Angels win the World Series while the pitcher Ricciardi received was a bust. [edit: Just got an email outlining the circumstances surrounding the Fullmer trade, and it sounds like Ricciardi won. The salary dump cleared the way for Vernon Wells, and interest in Fullmer was minimal.]
Ricciardi wasn’t too active at the trading deadline in ’02, shipping Raul Mondesi off to the Yankees. The return was a young reliever who did not pan out. He made a decent move in the winter of ’02 to get Cory Lidle for a couple of prospects, though Lidle was pretty lousy for the Jays. Ricciardi traded away shortstop Felipe Lopez a month later, a regrettable move.
At the trading deadline of ’03, Ricciardi sent Shannon Stewart to the Twins for Bobby Kielty. I wonder if he could’ve gotten more for Stewart, but the trade was redeemed when he snagged Ted Lilly from the A’s for Kielty. In the winter of ’03 he stole Justin Speier from the Rockies for Mark Hendrickson and a PTBNL as part of a three-way deal. That fleecing of Dan O’Dowd stands as one of Ricciardi’s best trades. A few months later Ricciardi picked up Jason Frasor for Jayson Werth, a pretty solid move.
Getting Frank Menechino from the A’s for junk was a nice move in May of ’04. Ricciardi made small acquisitions until January of ’05, when he snagged Shea Hillenbrand for a prospect. Say what you will about Hillenbrand, but the prospect sent to Arizona was a complete bust. Of course, Joe Garagiola was manning the club at the time, so it’s not a shock.
Ricciardi kept his John McDonald crush alive in the winter of ’05, re-acquiring him from Detroit. That December he made two big deals: Lyle Overbay for Dave Bush and Gabe Gross, and Troy Glaus for Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson. I consider both to be losses for the Jays. I think this team would be better right now with Bush and Hudson on it.
The jury’s still out on various dump trades Ricciardi made last summer involving Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis, and Eric Hinske.
Judging Ricciardi solely on trades, I think his record is close to .500. Some good, some bad. He loves dealing with old pal Billy Beane, making 8 of his 34 trades with him. Other GMs with whom he’s made more than one trade: Mark Shapiro, Theo Epstein, Doug Melvin, and Dan O’Dowd.
I haven’t looked closely yet but I think once you evaluate Ricciardi’s other GM decisions in tandem with his trades, he’ll come out looking quite bad. He’s let some good players go for little to nothing in Chris Carpenter, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Lyon, and Trever Miller. There are some pretty bad signings on his record too, and the Jays’ farm system is among the worst in the game. Nonetheless, his contract runs through 2010.
MLBTR Survey
I know I did a survey a couple of months ago, but I wanted to run another to get some updated opinions from you. This one’s shorter than before (only nine questions). Please click here to fill it out. I appreciate it.
I know I sometimes move slowly on suggestions but I still want to continually improve the site.
Phils Get Help for the Pen
Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. announced that the Phillies have acquired Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays in return for "cash considerations". The Phillies have started the season 0-2 with both games being lost in extra innings after allowing the Braves to score on the bullpen late in regulation to tie the game, squandering a good start by Brett Myers and a great start by Cole Hamels.
Rosario pitched to a 6.65 ERA in 17 appearances with the Blue Jays last season, but as we mentioned last week, he was having a very good spring. Out of options, the Jays elected to trade him rather than cut someone else from the 25-man roster.
The Phillies are expected to make another roster move in order to create room on their 25-man roster for Rosario. Since Zack Segovia will be needed to start a game against the Marlins this weekend, it’s likely Joe Bisenius or Clay Condrey will be the odd man out.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
K-Rod Cheating?
I know it’s not a trade rumor, but this is worth a look. Derek Zumsteg, author of The Cheater’s Guide To Baseball, may have uncovered some shady behavior on the part of Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez. He’s got screenshots of the mysterious substance over at his blog. Derek mentions in the comments that the Rangers complained to the Commissioner’s Office after the game.
It seems that thus far, the mainstream media either didn’t notice the story or chose to ignore it. Halos Heaven comments on the possibility, asking why teams didn’t uncover this years earlier. The problem is that everyone affiliated with this little situation seems to root for an AL-West team, so biases may sneak through.
UPDATE: The Rangers found out about the allegations yesterday, but did not contact the Commissioner’s Office. Through some other means, perhaps just by browsing the web, MLB found out about it today and is investigating.
Loney Would Welcome Trade
Consider it a polite trade request. James Loney’s agent, Joe Urbon, suggested a trade to the Dodgers as a possible option.
I am not sure what good can come of the request/public statement. If Ned Colletti is going to trade a very promising young player, he’s going to do it on his own terms and timetable. Loney’s agent going public isn’t going to force the team into action. Ryan Howard, once trapped in a similar situation, made a trade request and it mostly served to damage his image. 58 home runs has certainly erased that though.
Who could use a slick-fielding 0-3 first baseman with a .295/.351/.470 PECOTA? The Orioles could, though they’d have to unload a few corner types first. The Red Sox or Yankees could use him too. He’ll probably stay put but could be the top trading chip if Nomar is healthy and the Dodgers need something this summer.
Twins, Nathan Talking Extension
According to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Joe Nathan and the Twins have had "positive discussions about a contract extension."
The deal could run through 2011, enabling Nathan to spend at least a couple of seasons at the new ballpark. It sounds like Nathan won’t let talks run into Spring Training 2008, which will precede his walk year.
By 2009, the Twins probably will have already gotten the best of Nathan’s career. But as long as he stays healthy he should be closing when he’s 40. His skills could deteriorate and he’d still be a top five closer. If PECOTA were to sign him for 2009-11, it’d offer about $34MM. Since he likes Minnesota and wants to stay, the Twins might be able to complete a deal in that range.
Any Stats People Out There?
This is a question better geared for my RotoAuthority blog, but I figured I’d throw it out here. I feel ashamed for having to ask this, since I completed at least a couple of statistics classes in college. Oh well.
The question: what’s a valid sample size for us to use to judge a baseball player’s season? Let’s assume 550 ABs for a hitter and 200 innings for a pitcher. When do the 2007 numbers start to become predictive of the player’s entire season? 200 ABs, 75 innings? Beats me.
I am so far removed from "real" stats that I don’t know where to begin. Anybody out there know how to mathematically decide to cut bait on a player? Give your thoughts in the comments, or else email me at rotoauthority@gmail.com.
Zambrano Talks Cool Down, But Not Over
One person near the negotiations between Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs for a contract extension said that both sides have agreed to let things "cool down".
But that’s not to say the possibility of a deal has been greatly reduced. Zambrano and his agent have decided to extend the deadline for completion of the deal "indefinitely". Originally, the Zambrano camp had placed a deadline at Opening Day, but has since backed off of that given the news that the Cubs parent company, the Tribune Co., will be sold and that the buyer will then sell the Cubs in the offseason.
Both the Cubs, Zambrano and his handlers are saying that they think a deal can still be worked out despite this turn of events.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
Cantu to Durham Confirmed
Confirming what Buster Olney heard a few days ago, infielder Jorge Cantu will report to AAA Durham in time for Thursday’s season opener.
But that’s not to say he wouldn’t prefer to be traded. "I’m not a minor league player," said Cantu. That’s all well and good, but Cantu does not have enough service time or the type of contract that would force the Devil Rays to trade him.
Even in 2005, when Cantu was at the height of his powers, he did not get on base at a good rate, rarely taking walks. With the young position player talent the Devil Rays have, Cantu has his work cut out for him to return to Tampa Bay.
Maybe that’s why he thinks a trade is a good idea.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
