By Tim Dierkes | at
Made a minor change to the site today – the front page will now always the 15 most recent posts instead of 10. The Recent Posts section of the sidebar will still contain links to the last 10. It’s not quite a More>> button at the bottom of the page, but it should be an improvement.
Also, you’ve probably noticed the reader polls and Tim’s Take features; I hope to keep those up if the response is positive.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts is set to become a free agent after the 2008 season. The O’s would like to sign him to a deal to cover 2008-09 in the neighborhood of $12-14MM. The two sides decided to focus on two years. Wow, that sounds downright…reasonable. In fact, it’d be a huge bargain. Five-win second basemen are worth significantly more than $7MM a year to a team, but the market undercompensates the position.
The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec notes that Orioles have tons of players up for free agency after the ’09 season – Miguel Tejada, Ramon Hernandez, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Jay Gibbons, Erik Bedard, Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker. If there was ever a time to bring for new management to give this team a complete makeover it’s before the 2010 season.
By Tim Dierkes | at
26 year-old White Sox starter Sean Tracey doesn’t have much chance of making the team this spring, and he hopes Kenny Williams can accomodate him with a trade.
Tracey posted a 4.30 ERA at Triple A last year. His minor league equivalents: 6.27 K/9, 7.73 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, and 10.07 H/9. Pitchers with that kind of control aren’t exactly hot commodities. PECOTA sees about a 10% chance he brings that walk rate under 5.0 per nine in the bigs this year. Tracey throws in the low 90s with unimpressive secondary pitches and profiles as a reliever according to Baseball America.
He’s best known for being berated by Ozzie Guillen for failing to hit Hank Blalock with a pitch last year. Give Tracey credit for trying twice.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Locking up promising young players to avoid their arbitration years has become all the rage these days. It can be argued as win-win, as the player trades some risk for a smaller AAV than he could get going year to year.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Carlos Zambrano himself, his agents and Jim Hendry will resume talks about a contract extension today by phone. Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says the parameters are five years and an AAV between $14.6-18MM. Makes sense, and I imagine a full no-trade would be in there too.
Zambrano had a lot to say yesterday, promising a Cy Young for himself a World Series title for Chicago. He later qualified that last one by saying he’s "almost sure." As a Cubs fan, I enjoy the bravado.
I once attended the 1998 Cubs Convention. That ended up being a playoff season for the Cubs, their first since 1989. I had the privilege of meeting Kevin Tapani. I told him I hoped he’d win 20 games that year (I thus take most of the credit for his career-high 19 wins despite his 4.85 ERA). Tap told me, "it’d be a great season if that happened." It was an appropriate response for a past-his-prime battler. I feel that Zambrano would tell a 15 year-old kid that he’ll win 25 and hit 25 home runs too.
Tim’s take: Zambrano signs a five-year, $85MM extension with the Cubs before the season begins.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Michael Young’s recent contract extension, which 56.6% of you liked, could inform negotiations for Carlos Guillen’s next deal. Guillen is among the ten best free agents available after the 2007 season.
Let’s compare the two shortstops. They have nearly identical body types, though Guillen is a year older. Guillen’s got a touch more power; both consistently hit for a high average. Guillen draws more walks, so he’s in better shape if the batting average starts to decline. Both have questions about their ability to stay at shortstop in the long term. Both are significantly underpaid this year.
The largest difference is that Young is far more durable. That’s a huge factor. If you factor in the health and age difference, it’s obvious Guillen should not get a five-year, $80MM deal. The Tigers seem willing to offer a four-year extension, taking him through 2011. Rather than Young’s $16MM AAV, Guillen should be in line for something more like $14-15MM. He wants to stay in Detroit, so something like 4/52 might make sense. PECOTA would support Detroit making such an offer.
What say you? Guess the length and AAV of Guillen’s contract in today’s MLBTR poll and compare to other readers.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Next up in the team outlooks, the Pirates. Click here to view all the team outlooks.
Dave Littlefield’s contract obligations:
C – Ronny Paulino – $0.38MM
C – Humberto Cota – $0.537MM
1B – Adam LaRoche – $3.2MM
2B – Freddy Sanchez – $2.75MM
SS – Jack Wilson – $5.25MM
3B – Jose Castillo – $1.9MM
IF/C – Ryan Doumit – $0.38MM
IF – Jose Bautista – $0.38MM
LF – Jason Bay – $3.25MM
CF – Chris Duffy – $0.38MM
RF – Xavier Nady – $2.15MM (stomach pain)
OF – Luis Matos – $0.38MM
IF/OF – Jose Hernandez – $0.38MM
SP – Zach Duke – $0.38MM
SP – Ian Snell – $0.38MM
SP – Paul Maholm – $0.38MM
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $0.38MM
SP – Tony Armas Jr. – $3.5MM
RP – Salomon Torres – $2.6MM
RP – Damaso Marte – $2.45MM
RP – John Grabow – $0.8325MM
RP – Jonah Bayliss – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Capps – $0.38MM
RP – Dan Kolb – $1.25MM
RP – Shawn Chacon – $3.825MM
Injured/Minors:
RF – Jody Gerut – $0.85MM
OF – Nate McLouth – $0.38MM
RP – Shane Youman – $0.38MM
RP – Josh Sharpless – $0.38MM
There’s the Opening Day roster as I see it, with a huge assist from Jake at Bucco Blog. Some things could definitely play out differently. We still don’t know the cause of Nady’s stomach problems, and if he misses time then McLouth and Matos can both make the club. Even if he doesn’t McLouth can still beat out Matos. The fifth starter job could go to Chacon or Armas; I feel like Armas has the edge right now. An injury to a kid could make it a moot point. And some combo of Youman and Sharpless could be in the pen instead of Kolb and Bayliss.
Anyway, the payroll looks to be in the $40MM range, with maybe another $5MM going to buyouts and some players not listed. If the Bucs find themselves in a magical season, one player away, I think they have the payroll flexibility to add a $10MM guy via trade. They could import a difference-maker like Ichiro or Carlos Guillen.
It looks like Sanchez will play second base, if for no other reason than Wilson won’t play alongside Castillo. Castillo will try to win the third base job and wait to see if Wilson can be dealt.
LaRoche was a big-time addition, and a move I liked. LaRoche, Bay, and Sanchez may be the only regulars providing above average offense. Paulino and Duffy could join that group, but I don’t think anyone can really say that with any certainty right now.
It follows that this club will have to rely on its starting pitching to win. If all four kids stay healthy and show typical growth, it could be a damn good and affordable staff. Contact guys like Duke and Maholm can post nice ERAs if they get good defense behind them.
The starters may need to go deep into the games, as the pen was weakened by the trade of Mike Gonzalez. Without getting too deep in the numbers, the 2007 bullpen for this team looks subpar. On the other hand, relievers are quite volatile.
I can only see starting pitching as a clear strength for this club. Well, that and a lack of huge contracts. The team could make a run for the division but probably won’t; they should focus on keeping the young starters healthy. Andrew McCutchen could add some star power in ’08, and the Bucs could selectively purchase some free agents heading into that season.
By Tim Dierkes | at
UPDATE: In a related story, Jon Heyman of SI.com lists a slew of teams that inquired about Rodriguez’s availability this winter: the Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Heyman says the White Sox and Dodgers were the most persistent. None of the offers went anywhere given Rodriguez’s unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause.
Bob Raissman of the New York Daily News has an imposing mustache as well as some insight into Alex Rodriguez’s next possible destination. The article involves Lou Piniella in his underwear as well as a lot of crying and one tender kiss. I found it touching.
Anyway, Raissman believes, based on an upcoming HBO interview with Rodriguez, that a reunion with Lou Piniella in Chicago would be a dream come true for him. Rodriguez responded to the idea thusly:
"He’s on a different team in a different league. My memories of Lou are in the present and the past, not the future."
This is not the first time Rodriguez has been connected to the Cubs. Last July, later confirmed by other sources, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke news of the team’s trading deadline interest.
I would imagine that Rodriguez would not play shortstop for the Cubs for the duration of his 5+ year contract. More likely to me: A-Rod plays shortstop for three seasons, through 2010. At that point, Derrek Lee’s contract will be up and Aramis Ramirez might be ready to shift to first base. Ramirez is a Cub through 2011 or 2012.
Tim’s take – Chance of Alex Rodriguez signing with the Cubs in the ’07-’08 offseason: 15%.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Recently, I mentioned that a cool stat would be a pitcher’s percentage likelihood of throwing a no-hitter. Little did I know, Bill James devised this exact formula.
I plugged in Matt Cain’s career numbers. His chances of throwing a no-hitter in any given start are 0.27%. Not too bad! Nolan Ryan’s chances in any given start were 0.35%.
So after figuring that out it’s just a volume game. If Cain makes 100 career starts, we should expect 0.27 no-hitters. It follows that if he makes 364 career starts and maintains his hit rate, he should be expected to throw exactly one no-hitter. (Let’s not get into his hit rate worsening after his peak right now).
Can Cain make that many career starts? I honestly have no idea, but it seems reasonable on the surface (about 13 seasons). John Smoltz is his top comparable, and Smoltz is at 429 starts so far. However, a lot of promising young guys never sniff 300 career starts. Browsing Cain’s top ten comparables, only two have reached 300 (Smoltz and Andy Benes, although Josh Beckett has a shot).
Still, I think it’s fair to say that over the life of his new contract, it’s nearly a coin flip that Cain tosses a no-no.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A reader recently wrote:
Could you guys comment on the Ryan Howard contract? He was signed today for 900k. I know he’s only in his second full year, but that seems cheap for a 50+ HR guy. I guess I’m unsure of his arbitration status, I assume he is not eligible and this contract is just a sign of good faith?
It is a sign of good faith; the salary ties Albert Pujols for the largest ever for a guy with less than two years service time. Howard is not yet eligible for arbitration, though the Phils have talked about signing him to a long-term deal to cover those years. The Phillies had no obligation to pay Howard more than the minimum salary of $380K. Plenty of young guys earn $400K or less (Scott Kazmir, Robinson Cano, and Garrett Atkins come to mind).
As MLB.com’s Ken Mandel says, Howard had no leverage. Just like when he had his agent, Larry Reynolds, demand a trade from the Phillies in the spring of 2005, when he had less than 30 days Major League service time but was blocked by Jim Thome. (That article actually talked about moving Howard to left field – ha!) Howard later fired Reynolds (Harold’s brother) in favor of Casey Close.
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