Check out my latest fantasy baseball effort over at RotoAuthority. It concerns a curious lineup decision by manager Ozzie Guillen.
Archives for December 2005
Mets Catching Priorities And More
Talked to my Mets source recently, and their priorities for catcher are as follows.
1. Ramon Hernandez, but only at the right length (three years) and price (maybe $8MM per). The Mets are pretending publicly they’d start the season with Ramon Castro behind the plate. That posturing is similar to the Yankees’ assertion that they could begin the ’06 season with Bubba Crosby in center. Not gonna happen.
2. Bengie Molina, if he takes less cash than Hernandez.
3. Brad Ausmus.
4. Toby Hall through trade.
Ivan Rodriguez is not on the club’s radar due to injury concerns and his salary.
The Mets are likely to trade Jeff Keppinger or Anderson Hernandez and start the remaining player in Triple A in 2006. They have an eye on Mark Grudzielanek to fill the 2B void.
The latest on Manny Ramirez is that the Red Sox are simply asking for too much from the Mets for the slugger. New York is the one serious trade partner for Ramirez and won’t be surrendering Lastings Milledge and Cliff Floyd.
Latest Cubs Rumors – Furcal, Wood, Nixon
As we approach the winter meetings, all kinds of crazy rumors are making the rounds. First and foremost is a possible three-way deal between the Rangers, A’s, and Cubs as reported by Sunday’s edition of the Chicago Tribune. WSCR, a radio station in Chicago, has cited tomorrow’s Phil Rogers column about the trade.
The details: The Cubs send Kerry Wood and $6MM to the Rangers for Kevin Mench. The Cubs would also surrender Todd Walker and prospects and would receive Barry Zito from Oakland. It’s unclear what prospects would go Oakland’s way, although it’s fair to speculate Beane would ask for #1 prospect Felix Pie. Thanks to Alex and Mike for passing it along, and you can read a message board thread on the deal here.
My opinion? Doesn’t sound valid in the proposed form. As mentioned on the Inside The Ivy message board, it sounds more like a Phil Rogers opinion column. Rogers can’t be reached to confirm the rumor. The Cubs have plenty of starting pitcher and outfielder options on the table, and can make a deal without surrendering Pie. Given that Beane holds the cards with six starters, only the Cubs’ very best could entice him. I don’t think this deal happens.
I’ve also been informed that George Ofman from WSCR is reporting that Rafael Furcal will make his final decision by noon CST on December 4th. It’s still unknown which way he’s leaning. It’s well-known that the Dodgers have put in a three-year, $39MM bid for the shortstop. The offer is a smart one and mitigates L.A.’s risk nicely. Given that it could bring Furcal more money in both the short and long term, the Dodgers must be a serious option.
A source in the Red Sox organization mentions that the Cubs have interest in 31 year-old right fielder Trot Nixon. Nixon hasn’t had 500 at-bats since 2002, but he’s hit well when healthy. Nixon mashes right-handers but struggles mightily with southpaws. The Red Sox are rumored to have interest in Corey Patterson.
Thanks to Alex, Mike, Nick, and Cody
Angels Sign Hector Carrasco
The Angels snagged Hector Carrasco, a 37 year-old reliever, for $6.1MM over two years. Considering that Carrasco was waiver bait a couple of years ago, he did an excellent job capitalizing on his freakish 2.04 ERA in 2005.
Carrasco had the lowest batting average with balls in play among any pitcher with at least 80 innings in 2005 – .236. Given that the typical BABIP is more like .300, Carrasco’s luck is likely to run out. Expect an ERA closer to 4 in ’06.
The Carrasco acquisition adds fuel to the fire that the Halos could deal a top reliever like Scot Shields or Brendan Donnelly.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Matt Holliday
As always, RotoAuthority provides a daily fantasy fix for you roto-nerds out there. Today’s feature is a Matt Holliday projection.
Thoughts on Farnsworth and Castillo
Many of you have emailed me concerning the Kyle Farnsworth signing and Luis Castillo trade. I appreciate the tips; rest assured that I’m aware of these rumors and signings and I’ll post if I have anything to add.
Farnsworth has officially signed with the Yankees, although the Rangers’ offer was superior. The Farnz can be a little homer and walk prone at times, but his strikeout rate has never failed to impress. His track record off the field leaves a bit to be desired.
The Twins were the clear victors in the Luis Castillo trade. Minnesota held on to Scott Baker, surrendering only pitchers Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. Bowyer is a young closer-in-waiting who has yet to refine his control problems. He’s walked nearly five men per nine at every level. He’ll close for the Marlins by default. Scott Tyler is a starter with a little promise and shaky control. He’ll likely be converted to relief one day. Castillo was the 9th best 2B in baseball in 2005 and is sorely needed by the Twins.
Cubs Rumermongering: Lowe, Lugo, and Roberts?
I caught a well-respected source shortly before he left for the winter meetings in Dallas today.
He didn’t have anything on which way Rafael Furcal is leaning, but he did confirm that the Cubs’ offer of five years and about $50MM is on the table. This is nothing new, but now you have one more source authenticating the fact that the Cubs guaranteed the fifth year. Some sources have claimed that the Cubs came out of the gate with 5/50, but in reality their initial bid was four years and $38MM.
The Cubs are still in on Juan Pierre. You’ve surely heard mention of interest from the Yankees, White Sox, and Padres lately. Just a reminder that the Cubs do indeed have Pierre on their radar currently.
We’ve been talking about Milton Bradley for a week now, and talks are heating up with L.A. Another name the Cubs are seriously considering is Derek Lowe. Lowe had a resurgent year in Los Angeles, and Hendry would feel much safer being able to pencil in 32 starts from him for ’06. You can never have too much pitching.
Here and there, you may have heard that Carlos Zambrano could be had in a trade. That’s absurd, of course.
Will Carroll mentioned in his Mill today that the Braves will snag Julio Lugo if Furcal departs. It works the other way too – the Cubs will be hot on his trail if Furcal re-signs with Atlanta.
Finally, the Cubs are thinking about dealing for Dave Roberts to help out as a sort of utility outfielder. The Padres have little need for him at this point.
Attention NBA Fans
I’m looking for someone to help me on a new project involving the NBA. If you fit these criteria, drop me a line.
– Huge basketball fan
– Availability of 5-10 hours per week
– First-rate writing skills (journalism majors or bloggers might be good fits)
– Decent connections in basketball would be helpful
Kris Benson Trade: Update
Wondering what’s up with that seemingly inequitable Kris Benson for Jorge Julio deal that fizzled last night? My Mets source has the scoop.
"Mets are hanging onto Benson for now. Rumor of the deal being close to completion was leaked to NY Post so that other teams who may have interest in Benson could come back to them with a better offer next week."
This is the same source that gave me the Billy Wagner deal, so I’m confident in his take on Benson.
Seems the Mets played the Post to test the waters. Many analysts wrote the inequity of the deal off as a salary dump, but cutting $5MM isn’t really going to change the way the Mets do business. The club floated the idea of dealing a decent #3 starter for a lousy, overpaid reliever, and it’s likely that a starting pitching-starved team tops Jorge Julio. The Angels are one team that can be considered to have a surplus of solid bullpen arms and a possible need for a starter like Benson.
The Current Closer Market
Let’s take a peek at the Roto Authority Top 50 Free Agents List, which I finalized on October 25th. Before you scoff at my Tom Gordon to the Marlins prediction, remember that no one foresaw this fire sale. Looking back over the list, I’m reminded just how hard it is to predict where these guys end up. I’m almost starting to respect Steve Phillips. Wait, no I’m not.
Now that Gordon has signed, we’re left with Trevor Hoffman, Todd Jones, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, and Bob Wickman on the free agent market. I suppose Rudy Seanez could serve as a bargain-basement closer as well (he’s old, but had a 12.9 K/9 in 2005). Jose Mesa and Ugueth Urbina will probably find work too.
The trade market consists of Danys Baez, Keith Foulke, Miguel Batista, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike MacDougal, Scot Shields, Aaron Heilman, and Chris Reitsma. If things go wrong in Los Angeles, Eric Gagne could be on the block by summer ’06.
You’ll find a nice summary of closer depth charts over at The Closer Watch.
Teams that might be in the hunt include Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Diego.
If you lost count, that’s 8 teams and 5 decent relievers with the official closer label available via free agency (less if Wickman retires and Dotel and Farnsworth work in setup roles). Baez will be dealt, but two or three teams may be left standing without a chair. It’s tough to determine how stable Chris Ray, Keith Foulke, Fernando Rodney, Jose Valverde, and David Weathers are in their pseudo-closer roles.
I’m surprised that more teams aren’t following the blueprint set out by the White Sox, Brewers, A’s, and Rockies. These teams all thrust unproven arms into their 9th inning role and were rewarded with millions of dollars to be spent elsewhere.
Who will be the Derrick Turnbow or Bobby Jenks of 2006? Chris Ray could probably handle the 9th inning as well as any free agent. Jose Valverde threw in his vote in the form of 66 excellent innings last year. Aaron Heilman, Mike Gonzalez, and Scott Linebrink all have the credentials to step right into a closer role next year if given the opportunity.
Linebrink, for instance, is more than ready to inherit Trevor Hoffman’s job. Look at his performance since joining the Padres:
| HR/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | IP | |
| 2003 | 0.74 | 7.6 | 1.27 | 2.82 | 60.2 |
| 2004 | 0.86 | 8.9 | 1.04 | 2.14 | 84.0 |
| 2005 | 0.49 | 8.6 | 1.06 | 1.83 | 73.2 |
I believe that when all of these three and four year deals come to roost near the end of the decade, the idea of paying an aging 9th inning guy $9MM to throw 75 innings will start to lose its luster.
