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Archives for November 2005

Mark Buehrle To The Cardinals

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Disclaimer: this one is pure speculation.

Over at the premiere Cardinals blog, Viva El Birdos, lboros dropped a very intriguing name: Mark Buehrle.  There haven’t been many published reports of Buehrle being available.  Here’s the logic behind the Buehrle idea according to commenters Demetre and lboros.

Demetre: There really isn’t anything concrete about Buehrle being available (I don’t think) except for his unapolegitic, vocal, native STL love and desire to be a Cardinal at all costs.

Its about as pre-ordained a cardinal pitcher-to-be as i can remember outside the system.

lboros: the Buehrle is pure speculation on my part, but based on two considerations:

  1. He’s due to be a free agent in 2007 and almost surely will leave Chicago, as Reinsdorf won’t pay big money for him.

  2. Reinsdorf is well known for blowing his teams up. A few years back he even dumped half the team when they were only 3 or 4 games out of 1st place. If the sox aren’t doing well at midseason, Reinsdorf may be tempted to get frugal, and get what he can for Buehrle.

This is very sound logic (although it comes from a couple of die-hard Cards fans). 

If the White Sox are looking to trim payroll and get the best value for Buehrle before free agency, the Cardinals would be the ideal trading partner.  Jocketty’s Mark Mulder trade set a precedent that he’s willing to give up top prospects for proven pitching.  If Jocketty made Jason Marquis and Anthony Reyes available, I think Kenny Williams would pull the trigger on this blockbuster.

What do you think? 

 

Matt Morris Receives Offer From Giants

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It’s no great mystery, but my sources have confirmed that the team with the three-year deal on the table for Matt Morris is the San Francisco Giants.  The deal is expected to be in the range of $24MM. 

Morris is projected to go 11-13 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for the Giants in 2006.

Thanks to Alex S. 

Luis Castillo To The Mets

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Our suspicions from yesterday have been confirmed: Luis Castillo is definitely on the trading block.  Many sources mention the Mets’ interest in the second baseman.

The names we’re hearing coming back from the Mets are shortstop Anderson Hernandez and/or second baseman Jeff Keppinger (via the Palm Beach Post).  Alex Gonzalez won’t be returning to play shortstop in Florida, and the Marlins are less than confident in their top prospect at the position, Robert Andino.  If the Mets would give up Hernandez, the Marlins would probably pull the trigger.

While Yusmeiro Petit is probably out of the question, the Mets could part with young righthander Gaby Hernandez.  Hernandez looked fantastic in A ball in 2005 while still a teenager.

Luis Castillo is a top ten second baseman and perfect top-of-the-order hitter.  His defense is superb and he’s due $5MM in 2006.  The Mets aren’t the only team interested in his services – the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Twins are all in the running.

Thanks to Ben K.

 

Beckett Trade Nearly Done

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It’s being reported in the Dallas Morning News that John Danks will be the prospect sent over by Texas and the deal is near completion.

While lefthanded, Danks doesn’t have the same upside as his Double A Frisco teammate Thomas Diamond.  Both starters struggled in 2005.  Danks gave up a ton of hits, while Diamond had major control problems. 

John Danks Career Statistics

Click here to see our 2006 projections for Josh Beckett as a Texas Ranger.

The Salary Dump All-Stars

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With all the bad contracts and salary dumps on the way this offseason, I thought it’d be fun to create the Salary Dump All-Star Team.  These are the worst contracts at each position, based mainly on 2006 salary.  The salary below is just ’06.  I used Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the figures.

This group would cost over $150MM next year, and I left out the bench and bullpen.  Disagree with a choice?  Leave your thoughts in the comments.

C – Jason Kendall – $11,000,000 – Scott Podsednik, but with a bigger paycheck and catcher’s gear.  And less speed.

1B – Phil Nevin –  $10,000,000 –  I know Jim Thome and Todd Helton are paid more, but Nevin doesn’t seem to have anything left after hitting .237.287/.379 in ’05.

2B – Alfonso Soriano – $10,000,000 – That salary is just a guess, as Soriano figures to get a decent raise from his current $7.5MM salary through arbitration.  The 36 HR look great, but the atrocious defense and .309 OBP don’t.

SS – Cristian Guzman – $4,200,000 – He’s got the lowest salary on the team.  But both Guzman’s glovework and offense took a nosedive and he’s a huge detriment to the team.

3B – Mike Lowell – $9,000,000 – The Marlins are so desperate to dump Lowell’s salary that they may let the Rangers explore the potential of 25 year-old Josh Beckett.  Some have whispered about steroids when talking about Lowell’s massive decline…but isn’t it possible that he simply lost it?

RF – Magglio Ordonez – $15,000,000 – This deal really didn’t make sense for the Tigers.  Magglio’s power numbers were way down in his initial half-season with Detroit.

CF – Ken Griffey Jr. – $12,500,000 – Maybe Griffey finally earned his salary in 2005.  But he still has to go, not that Dan O’Brien understands that.

LF – Ryan Klesko – $10,000,000 – The Padres would be ecstatic to get this one off the books. 

SP – Chan Ho Park – $13,000,000 – The posterboy for bad contracts.  And for getting photographed in compromising positions.

SP – Eric Milton – $8,500,000 – How is it that every casual baseball fan knew this would end up terribly, but Reds’ management didn’t?

SP – Carl Pavano – $8,000,000 – They’re the Yankees, so they can do stuff like this.  But A.J. Burnett for similar money will be a much better investment. 

SP – Matt Clement – $9,500,000 – You can blame the injury, but his strikeout rate was way down last year.  Might be league average from here on out.

Closer – Keith Foulke – $7,250,000 – This was certainly not a bad contract.  But the Red Sox would be happy to get out of the final year of the deal. 

Dotel’s Agent Confirms Cards’ Interest

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Octavio Dotel’s agent, Dan Horwits, confirmed late Saturday that the Cardinals have been in contact with his client.  According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch article by Derrick Goold, more than a dozen teams have inquired about Dotel.

Of course, regular visitors of MLBTradeRumors.com were privy to this information early on Thursday, long before the newspapers picked it up.  The scoop came via our favorite source, a New York barber in the know about Dominican players.  In addition to St. Louis, the Mets would like to fit Dotel into an 8th inning role, and the Indians are looking for an insurance policy should Bob Wickman not return.

The Post-Dispatch article left out the most pertinent fact – that Dotel is hard at work on a merengue album.   

Beckett and Lowell for Blalock

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I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the huge blockbuster that might go down today.  Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post told us late last night:

"In what could be the first step of a major housecleaning in Florida, the Marlins and Rangers are close to completing a trade that would send Beckett and Lowell to Texas for third baseman Hank Blalock and a top pitching prospect, two baseball sources said Friday night.

The Marlins are asking for either left-hander John Danks, Texas’ first-round pick in 2003, or right-hander Thomas Diamond, the team’s first-round pick in 2004."

The article goes on to say that the deal could fall apart if Texas refuses to include either pitching prospect.  My guess is that the Marlins are demanding Diamond, who has a higher ceiling than Danks and could project as a #2 starter.

Both pitchers had lackluster years after being bumped up to Double A.

This may signal a widespread salary dump for the Marlins.  We’ve all heard the rumors around Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Pierre.  One name I haven’t heard much is Luis Castillo.  You have to figure Castillo is on the market as well with a weak 2B free agent class.   

Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn

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There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger.  I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.

Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination.  We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter.  I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.

De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin.  The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn.  GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.

It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable.  Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder.  GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn.  Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often.  The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter.  The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago. 

A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds.  We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd.  Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control.  One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is. 

If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar.  He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.   

Scott Eyre Signs With Cubs

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As has been reported in many places, the Cubs inked Scott Eyre today to a two-year deal with an option for the third year.  It’s one of the first free agent signings, and Eyre will certainly solidify the Cubs’ pen.

If you think $3MM+ per year is a little much for a lefty reliever with a 4.52 career ERA, you’re probably right.  The Cubs are paying a premium for the safer choice by signing the 33 year-old.  The deal still looks to be better than the three year pact Hendry gave to Mike Remlinger.  Eyre should have at least one or two solid years for the Cubs.

Hendry’s initial moves this offseason were summed up nicely by Bleed Cubbie Blue commenter zambranofan: 

"Hendry has been filling the roster with players who fit typical roles…and overpaying slightly for them.  $3M a year for a LOOGY?  $2.5M a year for a backup middle infielder?  $3M a year for a sixth starter and swing man?"

It’s the quick fix approach to building a contender, and it should be an active offseason for the North Siders.  This will be a significantly different team in 2006.

Thanks to Ben K.

Mets, Indians, Cards Contact Dotel

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In recent years, Octavio Dotel has whiffed batters at a ridiculous rate, sometimes approaching 13 per nine innings.  While tough to hit in general, Dotel has been prone to the home run and too generous with bases on balls.

The colorful Dotel went down this summer with a strained right elbow, and by June Dr. James Andrews was wrapping a tendon from his leg around that same elbow.  Interestingly, the tendon was long enough to be wound three times around the elbow, giving Dotel superhuman strength.  Well, I’m not sure about the strength but it was wrapped three times.

Dotel elected for the surgery against Oakland’s wishes, and a door was opened for Huston Street to become Rookie of the Year in 2005.  Dotel was one of the first free agents to file, and has declared in the past that he’d be happy to pitch in a setup role if need be.  He even volunteered to play for free.

Dotel was ranked 31st on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents list, and Boston was picked as his likely destination.  Now comes word of three other teams interested in Dotel’s services, courtesy of an unusual source.  My source’s barber (in New York) is apparently friends with Dotel, as they knew each other back in the Dominican Republic.  The barber informed my source that Dotel has been contacted by the Cardinals, Mets, and Indians.  The best part, straight from my source:

"He also told me that Octavio is working on a record, not a record for saves or strikeouts or anything, a merengue record.  He is supposedly a great singer. Seriously."

There you have it.  It might sound a little far-fetched, but have fun with it.  My honest opinion is that this report is accurate and truthful.  St. Louis seems the most likely choice, as the club has shown great patience and has been rewarded with rehab projects like Chris Carpenter.

Thanks to Dan K.

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