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Edwin Diaz

Edwin Diaz Helped Off Field With Right Knee Injury

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Star reliever Edwin Díaz was carted off the field after tonight’s World Baseball Classic contest. The Mets closer threw a perfect inning to save Puerto Rico’s 5-2 win over the Dominican Republic and injured his right knee while the team celebrated its victory on the mound (video provided by Fox Sports MLB). The Mets announced he’s going for further imaging on Thursday.

Díaz was helped off the field by trainers without putting weight on his right leg. He was helped into a wheelchair and taken off the field in a surreal scene, one which turned from jubilation for the Puerto Rican players and fanbase into dismay. Players from both teams were visibly distraught by the injury, with Díaz’s younger brother Alexis Díaz breaking down in tears as Edwin was taken off the field.

Obviously, it’s far too soon to know the extent of the injury. Marly Rivera of ESPN tweets that Díaz was evaluated at the stadium by an on-site orthopedic specialist. Andy Martino of SNY tweets that he also went in for x-rays on Wednesday night.

Needless to say, a serious injury to Díaz would be a massive blow for the Mets. The 28-year-old righty is the sport’s best reliever. He’s coming off one of the greatest relief seasons in recent memory, throwing 62 innings of 1.31 ERA ball while striking out more than half his opponents. The Mets retained him this offseason on a five-year, $102MM contract days before the start of free agency. That marked the largest commitment to a relief pitcher in MLB history.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Mets Re-Sign Edwin Diaz

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November 17: Jon Heyman of The New York Post provides a full breakdown. Diaz will make $17.25MM in 2023 and 2024 with $5.5MM deferred with no interest. He will get a bump to $17.5MM in 2025 with $5.5MM deferred. Then he’ll get $18.5MM in 2026 and 2027 with $5MM deferred. The club option is for $20.4MM and has a $1MM buyout.

November 9: The Mets have officially announced the deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has more details on the deferred money, noting that it will be $5.5MM per year for the first three seasons and then $5MM per year for the last two. This means his CBT number will be $18.6MM (Twitter links).

November 6: The Mets have kicked off the off-season in spectacular fashion, inking superstar closer Edwin Diaz to a record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal. The deal comes with a $12MM signing bonus, full no-trade clause and has a team option for a sixth year which could take the total value of the deal to $122MM. Diaz will also have the ability to opt out of the contract after the third season, when he’ll be approaching his age-32 season. $26.5MM of Diaz’s salary is deferred. Diaz is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract takes one of the top free agents off the board before free agency opens on Thursday afternoon, and it also sets a new standard as the biggest contract even given to a relief pitcher in terms of both total value and average annual value. Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM contract was the previous benchmark for total value, while Liam Hendriks’ ongoing three-year deal with the White Sox had given him the previous AAV high of $18MM.

Diaz, 28, was lights out for the Mets in 2022, tossing 62 innings of 1.30 ERA ball. He struck out more than half of the batters he faced, while walking just 7.7% of batters. He gave up just three home runs all year, and converted 32 of his 35 save opportunities. His fastball/slider combo has always been a nightmare for opposition batters, but he leaned far more heavily on his slider in 2022, going to it 58.1% of the time against his usual usage in the mid-30s, and the results were staggering. He led the majors in reliever ERA, strikeout rate and reliever fWAR. The strikeout rate was so dominant it tied Craig Kimbrel’s 2012 effort for the third best strikeout rate of qualified relievers in MLB history. Only Aroldis Chapman’s 52.5% mark in 2014 is better, but that came against an 11.9% walk rate, well above Diaz’s rate this season.

Though Diaz established himself as the best reliever in baseball this season, the deal does present a fair degree of risk particularly given Diaz’s career as a whole has been something of a roller-coaster. After being drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Mariners, Diaz emerged as powerhouse arm out of Seattle’s bullpen. He averaged a 2.64 ERA over three seasons in Seattle, highlighted by a phenomenal 2018 season that saw him notch 57 saves, while posting a 1.96 ERA and finishing eighth in AL Cy Young voting. That prompted the Mets to acquire him that off-season, sending over their own top prospect Jarred Kelenic and taking on the bulk of Robinson Cano’s hefty contract to get him. That off-season blockbuster also featured Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista.

The deal looked a shocker initially, as Diaz pitched to a 5.59 ERA in his first season in Queens. He maintained his strong strikeout rates, but struggled mightily with the long ball, giving up an average of 2.3 home runs every nine innings. He could have been an outside non-tender candidate that winter, but the Mets stuck with him, and their decision paid off immediately. Diaz bounced back in the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, curing his long ball problems and posting the best strikeout rate at that point of his career. He experienced a slight dip in 2021, posting a 3.45 ERA, although advanced indicators such as FIP suggested his performance was largely in line with his previous season (2.48 in ’21 against 2.18 in ’20).

Diaz has become a legitimate superstar of the sport in Queens. His performance speaks for itself, but his entrance to trumpets at Citi Field captivated all of sports and sparked a number of other theatrical entrances that look to mimic the atmosphere that Diaz’s entrance creates. While no reliever is a sure thing, Diaz is the best in the game at what he does, and Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness make money a non-issue when it comes to signing, or in this case re-signing, the game’s top talent.

It’s the first move in what could be a busy off-season for the Mets. Both their rotation and bullpen will significant addressing. Diaz was set to join Tommy Hunter, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams as relievers headed for free agency, while Mychal Givens has a mutual option for next year, meaning they effectively have to rebuild their bullpen entirely. Diaz is a major piece of that, but the Mets will still be heavily active in the relief market this winter. On the rotation side of things, Chris Bassitt has already declined his mutual option and will be a free agent, while Jacob deGrom is expected to confirm he’ll opt into free agency in the coming days. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option with a $3MM buyout, while Carlos Carrasco has a $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout, so the team could be seeking a number of starters as well. That’s not even getting into the offensive side of the ball, where the Mets will lose outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin.

It shapes up as another busy off-season, and one which could see the Mets payroll soar to even greater heights. Cohen has never seemed too concerned with the payroll, but RosterResource has the Mets payroll at $251MM for 2023 currently, although that figure doesn’t assume deGrom will opt out. Even so, the team spent $282MM in 2022 on player payroll, and there’s definitely a path to them spending that or more in 2023 if they’re serious about competing in the tough NL East.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report that Diaz and the Mets were close to a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the deal was done and included an option, opt-out and no-trade clause. Tim Healey of Newsday had financial details of the option year and the time of the opt-out. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had details of the signing bonus, while SNY’s Andy Martino reported about the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals

The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.

2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal

Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.

3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest

It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.

The Opener: Diaz, Injuries, Rule 5

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With the World Series in the rear-view and the offseason officially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Edwin Diaz Sets Records With New Mets Pact

The first major signing of the offseason occurred yesterday evening, with the Mets re-signing star closer Edwin Diaz to a massive five-year, $102MM contract. Diaz now becomes the first relief pitcher to ever secure a nine-figure deal, and the first with a deal of an average annual value north of $20MM. Diaz secured that contract by having a platform season for the ages, throwing 62 innings to a 1.31 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.90 FIP. While the Mets have plenty more to do in rebuilding the bullpen as Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Mychal Givens depart for free agency, the Diaz re-signing serves as an important first step in that process. The record-setting contract also serves as a reminder of owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to flex financial muscle, which will be important as the Mets look to re-sign or replace players such as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo this offseason.

2. World Series Teams Examine Injuries

Though the 2022 World Series is now a thing of the past, the participants must now turn their focus to the injuries they suffered throughout the season that had been ignored in favor of playing through the postseason run. Most notable among these, of course, is Bryce Harper, who suffered UCL damage in May, with surgery this offseason a possibility. For the World Series champion Astros, three players have injuries to worry about entering the offseason: Alex Bregman suffered a broken finger late in Game 6 on Saturday, Yuli Gurriel missed Game 6 after a sprain to his MCL, and Martin Maldonado played through both a broken hand and a sports hernia this postseason, the latter of which will require surgery according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Bregman’s injury has the least question marks surrounding it, as he will reportedly be ready for Spring Training in 2023. More details could be announced regarding the rest of these injuries in the coming days.

3. Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview, the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft is November 15th this year. Seeing as there was no R5 draft last offseason, teams will likely have more players to protect than usual, which could lead to roster crunches across baseball. This could also lead to some players getting cut from 40-man rosters a few days ahead of November 18th’s non-tender deadline, and some minor trades such as yesterday’s Sam Hilliard deal between the Rockies and Braves. Overall, with these dates being earlier on the offseason calendar, fans should expect a larger quantity of winter moves to happen in this first week of the offseason than in recent years, though said moves won’t necessarily be at the top of the free agent market.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

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The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

NL East Notes: Dombrowski, Phillies, Duquette, Diaz, Mets, Ibanez

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Dave Dombrowski’s contract as the Phillies’ president of baseball operations runs through the 2024 season, and it contains a special clause that would allow him to leave if offered a job with an expansion team in Nashville.  However, in the wake of the Phils’ run to the NL pennant, there is obvious interest in keeping him in Philadelphia for many years to come, and an extension looks to be in the works.  “There’s not a chance that we’ll let him get away,” managing partner John Middleton told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Before Dombrowski finally agreed to speak with the Phillies in the 2020-21 offseason, Nightengale reports that the team had narrowed it search for a new front office boss down to Twins GM Thad Levine and former Orioles/Red Sox GM Dan Duquette.  Levine was known to be a top candidate at the time of the search, but Duquette wasn’t previously known to be on the Phillies’ radar at all.  Since parting ways with the Orioles after the 2018 season, Duquette was linked to the Pirates’ GM search before Pittsburgh hired Ben Cherington.

More from around the NL East…

  • Edwin Diaz is one of several prominent Mets players slated for free agency, but the Mets “believe they have the best chance to keep” Diaz of anyone in that top-tier group, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes.  Re-signing Diaz might well cost the Mets the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, but Diaz’s case for such a deal is pretty sound, considering his excellent performance.  Since an increasing number of teams are reluctant to pay top dollar for relievers, this could give the Mets something of an advantage in keeping the All-Star in the fold.
  • Also from Heyman, he reports that Raul Ibanez spoke with the Marlins about their managerial vacancy, though Ibanez took himself out of the hunt “due to family considerations.”  Ibanez has spent the last two seasons working with MLB as a senior VP of on-field operations, and previously worked as a special assistant in the Dodgers organization after retiring from his playing career.  Though he doesn’t have any managing or coaching experience, the widely-respected Ibanez has surfaced as a managerial candidate in the past, though he has consistently declined interviews.  Talking with the Marlins perhaps represents some softening on Ibanez’s stance, though since he lives in Miami, it is possible he saw this specific job as a unique opportunity.  The Marlins announced Skip Schumaker as their new skipper on Tuesday.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

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