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• Andrew Bailey (5.000): $4.3MM
• Andrew Miller (5.062): $1.9MM
• Franklin Morales (5.007): $1.8MM
• Mike Carp (3.010): $1.3MM
• Junichi Tazawa (3.086): $1.1MM

Bailey's time in Boston did not go well.  He needed thumb surgery early in 2012, making his season debut in mid-August and pitching poorly.  The Red Sox retained him through arbitration for 2013, but also acquired Joel Hanrahan to close.  Bailey took over as closer when Hanrahan hit the DL for a hamstring injury, and was still the closer after missing time himself for a biceps injury.  Bailey lost the ninth inning job in mid-June due to poor performance, and in July ended up needing season-ending shoulder surgery.  It seems that Bailey will miss much of the 2014 season as he recovers, so he's certain to be non-tendered by Boston.

Miller had a solid 2012 campaign for the Red Sox and started off acceptably this year, until enduring a July foot injury that required season-ending surgery.  He expects to be ready for Spring Training, and his price tag is palatable for a situational lefty.  Tazawa was excellent in the regular season and playoffs, and will have a prominent role in next year's bullpen.

The Red Sox have Craig Breslow under contract, so along with Miller, Morales represents a potential third southpaw in next year's bullpen.  Morales began the season on the DL for a back injury, and then strained a pectoral muscle in late April.  The Red Sox stretched him out as a starter as he rehabbed the injury, but his May 30th season debut was his only start of the season.  A shoulder injury put him back on the DL in late June, from which he returned in mid-August.  He pitched in the Division Series and ALCS but was not used in the World Series despite being on the roster.  It's hard to give up on a 28-year-old southpaw who throws 93-94 miles per hour, and Morales is cheap enough that the Red Sox might keep him around for 2014 or at least find a trade partner for him this winter.

Carp was designated for assignment by the Mariners in February, and after interest from the Twins, Astros, Brewers, the Red Sox acquired him, eventually just sending cash in return.  Carp, a left-handed hitter, faced righties in 88% of his plate appearances and authored an excellent overall line of .296/.362/.523.  The Red Sox will be happy to have him as part of next year's bench.

Assuming the Red Sox tender contracts to Miller, Morales, Carp, and Tazawa, they're looking at an estimated $6.1MM for four arbitration eligible players.

• John Axford (3.170): $5.7MM
• David Freese (4.028): $4.4MM
• Jon Jay (3.134): $3.4MM
• Daniel Descalso (3.016): $1.2MM
• Fernando Salas (3.014): $700K

The Cardinals added Axford in a late August trade with the Brewers, and the 30-year-old righty did a nice job in 10 1/3 regular season innings for St. Louis, picking up another 5 2/3 innings in the postseason.  He recorded 19 holds this year, after amassing 106 saves previously in his career.  Saves pay well in arbitration, getting Axford a $5MM salary his first time through.  Axford would be useful to pencil into next year's pen, with Edward Mujica up for free agency and a decent-sized contract and Carlos Martinez being considered for the rotation.  However, Axford's projected arbitration cost is a little steep, making a non-tender likely if the Cardinals are not able to find a team willing to take him on in trade.

Freese represents a tougher decision.  The MVP of the 2011 postseason, Freese hit .262/.340/.381 in 521 regular season plate appearances this year and .179/.258/.268 in the playoffs.  He was quite good as recently as 2012, and to non-tender him seems drastic given a $4.4MM salary projection.  If Freese stays with the Cardinals, it seems likely the presence of Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong will affect his playing time.  The Cards could also trade Freese this offseason.

The Cardinals are a team with few deficiencies, but center field is another potential area of upgrade.  Jay, 29 in March, hit .276/.351/.370 in 628 plate appearances.  At the least, he remains a useful player at $3.4MM.  Jay's situation is similar to Freese: a non-tender seems unlikely, a trade is possible, and he may be pushed for playing time if he stays with St. Louis.  Descalso, meanwhile, seems likely to have a utility role on next year's club.

Salas, 29 in May, was the Cardinals' surprise closer for much of 2011, but spent time in the minors in 2012.  This year, he battled a shoulder injury and bounced up and down from Triple-A.  With a projected salary under a million bucks, the Cardinals might be able to find a taker in a trade if Salas is not part of their plans for 2014.

Assuming the Cardinals tender contracts to Freese, Jay, Descalso, and Salas, they're looking at an estimated $9.7MM for four arbitration eligible players.

• Max Scherzer (5.079): $13.6MM
• Rick Porcello (4.170): $7.7MM
• Doug Fister (4.058): $6.9MM
• Austin Jackson (4.000): $5.3MM
• Alex Avila (4.061): $3.7MM
• Phil Coke (5.028): $2.1MM
• Andy Dirks (2.139, Super Two): $1.7MM
• Don Kelly (4.138): $900K
• Al Alburquerque (2.147, Super Two): $700K

Scherzer is a strong contender for the AL Cy Young award, after winning 21 games with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings.  Despite his success, Scherzer's rising price tag and impending free agency have made him a rumored offseason trade candidate.  As a self-described "pretty fanatical fan" of this website, Scherzer will surely be joining you in keeping up-to-date on his situation.  Our projected arbitration salary of $13.6MM would be topped only by Cole Hamels' $15MM in 2012 among starting pitchers, though Clayton Kershaw will speed past both of them if he goes to arbitration.  Scherzer is a 29-year-old strikeout ace represented by Scott Boras who is heading into his contract year.  An extension this offseason is extremely unlikely, unless Scherzer demands Boras to do it and/or the offer is record-shattering.  Boras hasn't had an ace pitcher to take to free agency since Barry Zito seven years ago.

If Scherzer were to sign now, the contract would have to surpass C.C. Sabathia's seven-year, $161MM deal, which is the record in new money for a pitcher until Kershaw signs.  A Scherzer contract would also probably include an opt-out after three or so years.

The Tigers' rotation also includes Porcello and Fister, who both project to jump up to the $7-8MM range.  The most recent extension for a four-plus pitcher was Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal from January.  Fister has a strong case to top that, even if he's not able to get to the $80MM range of Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez prior to the 2010 season.  For all the talk about Scherzer, the Tigers also need to be thinking about big bucks for Fister if they don't want to lose him the following offseason.  Porcello's situation is different, since he was once a Super Two and has a 4.51 career ERA.  Porcello seems more likely to be traded than extended, though they'll probably need him if they move Scherzer.

Jackson's walk rate and power took a dip this year, and he lost a month to a hamstring injury.  He was still a useful hitter and a plus baserunner.  He's locked in for the Tigers' center field job again next year, but an extension seems unlikely since he's represented by Boras.  Avila, the starting catcher, hit under .200 in April, May, June, and August, but posted an OPS over .800 in July and September.  He spent some time on the DL after being hit by a pitch on his forearm, and also endured a concussion in August.  Avila's amazing 2011 season seems well in the rearview.  While the free agent market does offer a potential upgrade in Brian McCann, the Tigers probably do not view catcher as an issue that must be addressed.

Dirks manned left field for the Tigers for much of the season, and seemed exposed with the career-high 484 plate appearances.  Still, he should be retained for 2014.  Kelly, a light-hitting utility player, was retained through arbitration last offseason and was marginally better in 2013.  Though he doesn't project for a raise, his roster spot is in jeopardy.

Coke seems likely to be non-tendered after posting a 5.40 ERA in 38 1/3 innings, in a season that included a DL stint for a groin strain, a minor league demotion in August, and elbow issues.  The 31-year-old was still solid against lefties.  Alburquerque put together an uneven season, with a demotion to Triple-A in May, tons of strikeouts, and tons of walks.  As frustrating as he can be, Alburquerque is a 27-year-old who throws in the mid-90s and misses bats, so he has value at a bit above the league minimum.  The Tigers may consider trading him, but I think he'll be tendered a contract.

Assuming the Tigers tender contracts to Scherzer, Porcello, Fister, Jackson, Avila, Dirks, and Alburquerque, they're looking at an estimated $39.6MM for seven arbitration eligible players.

• Garrett Jones (4.158): $5.3MM
• Neil Walker (3.166): $4.8MM
• Pedro Alvarez (3.085): $4MM.  Alvarez may void $700K club option and go to arbitration.
• Charlie Morton (5.010): $3.9MM
• Mark Melancon (3.098): $3MM
• Gaby Sanchez (4.025): $2.3MM
• Travis Snider (3.091): $1.4MM
• Michael McKenry (2.136, Super Two): $900K
• Vin Mazzaro (3.021): $800K

Though Jones faced lefties in only about five percent of his plate appearances, the left-handed hitter still compiled a dismal .233/.289/.419 line on the season.  He's topped 20 home runs in three of his five years with the Bucs, and can still be a useful platoon bat.  However, with arbitration likely to push Jones' salary past $5MM for 2014, I think he'll be non-tendered.

Infielders Walker, Alvarez, and Sanchez should be in good standing for 2014.  Walker's production remained consistent.  Despite extension talks in the past, the Pirates have yet to extend the Pittsburgh native.  Howie Kendrick's four-year, $33.5MM deal could serve as a model, though Walker would probably have to top $40MM to account for being a Super Two.  Alvarez made the All-Star team and hit 36 home runs with 100 RBI this year, though he also led the NL in strikeouts and posted a .296 OBP.  I'd be cautious in considering an extension, but it's probably a moot point with the Boras Corporation representing Alvarez.  Sanchez did what was asked of him, hitting lefties extremely well while facing them almost 40% of the time.  He'll probably be retained.

Snider and McKenry are on thinner ice.  Snider, a former first-round pick in '06, had a chance at running away with the Pirates' right field job but failed to produce and battled injuries.  There's a decent chance he's non-tendered, especially since he's out of options.  McKenry surprised with a dozen home runs in part-time duty last year behind the plate, but a knee injury that eventually required surgery ended his 2013 season in July.  Even if Tony Sanchez gets the backup nod next year, McKenry seems cheap enough to retain in Triple-A for depth.

Morton had Tommy John surgery in June 2012 and made his 2013 season debut a year later.  The 29-year-old groundball pitcher put together a strong 116 innings, posting a 3.26 ERA.  Now he's entering his contract year, so the Pirates must decide whether to try to extend him.  The Bucs might want something like two years and $12MM or three years and $20MM, plus a club option in either case, since Morton has yet to reach 175 innings in a season.  If Morton plays out his contract year and approximates his 2013 success over a full season, the price will rise quite a bit and he can avoid option years. 

Melancon had a breakout year in the Pirates' bullpen, making the All-Star team and posting a 1.39 ERA in 71 innings.  He racked up 16 saves when closer Jason Grilli went down, plus 26 holds as Grilli's setup man.  As good as he was in 2013, I don't think there's a need for the Pirates to pursue an extension unless it's very team-friendly.  Mazzaro rode a 52.2% groundball rate to a strong relief season, and should also have a spot in next year's pen.

Assuming the Pirates tender contracts to Walker, Alvarez, Morton, Melancon, Sanchez, McKenry, and Mazzaro, they're looking at an estimated $19.7MM for seven arbitration eligible players.

• Justin Masterson (5.108): $9.7MM
• Drew Stubbs (4.047): $3.8MM
• Michael Brantley (3.131): $3.7MM
• Marc Rzepczynski (3.132): $1.4MM
• Vinnie Pestano (2.133, Super Two): $1.3MM
• Josh Tomlin (3.069): $1.1MM
• Lou Marson (4.036): $1MM
• Blake Wood (3.079): $800K
• Frank Herrmann (2.147, Super Two): $600K

Masterson will be entering his contract year in 2014 and projects to earn a strong salary his last time through arbitration.  He made his first All-Star team in 2013, and posted a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings overall.  His last start came on September 2nd, as he was knocked out by an oblique strain and assumed a relief role upon his return because he did not have time to build up his stamina.  Masterson had two sub-4.00 ERA seasons out of four in Cleveland, although he has not yet put together one with a strong strikeout rate and a walk rate below 3.0 per nine.  If the Indians are to extend the 28-year-old groundballer this offseason, a five-year deal between those of John Danks ($65MM) and Jered Weaver ($85MM) would make sense.

Tomlin had Tommy John surgery in August last year, and spent most of his season in the minors after finishing rehab.  The Indians may see fit to non-tender him.

Brantley had a decent year, although he hasn't done anything that would warrant a multiyear extension.  Stubbs seems stretched as more than a fourth outfielder, and with a $3.8MM projection, the Indians should consider non-tendering him.  Marson's season was ruined by an April collision, after which he battled a neck sprain and shoulder injury.  He appeared in only three games, and is a candidate to be cut loose.

In Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, the Indians have four arbitration eligible relievers.  Rzepczynski joined the Indians in a July trade with the Cardinals and was excellent in 27 appearances for the Tribe.  He's penciled in to next year's bullpen.  Pestano, once the heir apparent to former closer Chris Perez, battled an elbow injury and lost velocity this year, and was optioned upon the Indians' acquisition of Rzepczynski.  Pestano still qualifies as a Super Two, and is still worth retaining for 2014.

Wood, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2012, was claimed off waivers by the Indians from the Royals last November.  He remained in the minors after his rehab stint ended, though he earned a September call-up due to solid work in Triple-A.  Though he has control issues, Wood is probably worth the roster spot.  Herrmann had Tommy John in March of this year, picking up service time in 2013 while spending the entire year on the DL.  He would also be cheap to retain.

Assuming the Indians tender contracts to Masterson, Brantley, Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, they're looking at an estimated $17.5MM for six arbitration eligible players.  However, it is far from certain Stubbs, Tomlin, and Marson will be non-tendered, and they represent an additional potential $5.9MM.

• Clayton Kershaw (5.105): $18.2MM
• Kenley Jansen (3.073): $4.8MM
• A.J. Ellis (3.151): $3.2MM
• Ronald Belisario (3.151): $2.3MM
• Drew Butera (3.018): $700K
• Scott Elbert (3.069): $600K
• Mike Baxter (2.129, Super Two): $500K

Kershaw easily has the largest projected salary of the 200+ arbitration eligible players.  Furthermore, his projection tops the largest arbitration reward in MLB history, Prince Fielder's $15.5MM in 2011.  Cole Hamels set the record for a pitcher with $15MM in 2012.  We had to invoke the Kimbrel Rule in limiting Kershaw's raise to $6.9MM.  

There seems to be a general feeling that Kershaw has little chance of reaching the open market, because the Dodgers have the money and intent to sign their ace long-term within the next 12 months (and preferably before the 2014 season begins).  The largest contract ever given to a pitcher remains the seven-year, $161MM deal C.C. Sabathia signed with the Yankees nearly five years ago.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported progress in June between the Dodgers and Kershaw on a seven-year deal worth more than $180MM, with other proposals under discussion such as $250MM over 10 years and $300MM over 12 years.  In August, Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers and Kershaw were close to a seven-year, $210MM deal that would have included a player opt-out clause after five years, from which the Dodgers backed off.  This month, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about a $300MM lifetime contract the Dodgers had offered earlier in the season, perhaps the same one to which Rosenthal referred in June.  Players must file for arbitration on January 14th next year, with figures to be exchanged on the 17th, but I imagine the Dodgers and Kershaw will be willing to talk about a long-term deal up until Opening Day.

Closer Kenley Jansen posted another fine season, though perhaps his first 30-save campaign will come in 2014 assuming he owns the job from the start of the season.  There is no extension model for three-plus closers, so the Dodgers and Jansen would have to forge new territory to get a deal done.

Ellis' production declined from 2012, to .238/.318/.364 in 448 plate appearances.  The team could consider trading Ellis to open up a pursuit of Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Butera, a backup type acquired for depth at the trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered.

The Dodgers picked up Baxter from the Mets on a waiver claim this month, suggesting they'll consider tendering him a contract.  He'll make something around the league minimum, so it's really about how they want to use the roster spot.  Elbert, a 28-year-old lefty reliever, had Tommy John surgery in June and is a non-tender candidate.  Belisario was not particularly good this year, with ERAs around 8.00 in June and September.  He did have a 3.97 ERA overall and the Dodgers liked him enough to use him in the playoffs, so he's probably safe.

Assuming the Dodgers tender contracts to Kershaw, Jansen, Ellis, Belisario, and Baxter, they're looking at an estimated $29MM for five arbitration eligible players.

• Craig Kimbrel (3.066): $7.25MM
• Kris Medlen (4.137): $5.9MM
• Freddie Freeman (3.033): $4.9MM
• Jason Heyward (4.000): $4.5MM
• Chris Johnson (3.144): $4.2MM
• Mike Minor (2.138, Super Two): $3.5MM
• Jonny Venters (4.000): $1.625MM
• Jordan Walden (3.043): $1.5MM
• Jordan Schafer (3.121): $1MM
• Elliot Johnson (3.028): $900K
• Brandon Beachy (3.014): $900K
• Cristhian Martinez (3.158): $750K
• Paul Janish (4.115): $725K
• Ramiro Pena (3.089): $600K

Kimbrel's arbitration case is so incredible, we created a rule around it to limit his salary.  Since his salary could escalate like no other reliever's has before, the Braves could try to get out in front of the situation and sign him to a multiyear deal.  It's difficult to imagine buying out his three arbitration years for less than $25MM, and free agent years could cost $13MM apiece.  There is no template here, and the safe bet for the Braves is to go year-to-year.

Medlen followed up his stellar 2012 with a strong 3.11 ERA in 197 regular season innings.  A Tommy John survivor, Medlen is quietly closing in on free agency after the 2015 season.  If the Braves want to lock him up, Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal could be a starting point.  The arbitration cases of Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, and Doug Fister will be relevant to Medlen this winter, as all of them are in the four-plus service class.

The Braves may also want to look into locking up Minor, who achieves Super Two status after posting a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings.  Gio Gonzalez, also a Super Two at the time, signed a five-year, $42MM deal prior to the 2012 season, which is still a record for a two-plus pitcher.

Beachy doesn't project to earn much his first time through arbitration, as he has only 267 2/3 career innings and only 111 over 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.  He's still not all the way back, with arthroscopic elbow surgery being done in September.  He'll be in the Braves' rotation mix next year if healthy.

Freeman put together an MVP-caliber year at first base, hitting .319 with 23 home runs and 109 RBI.  On an extension, he'd easily be able to top Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM deal, which will be four years old come January.  RBIs pay in arbitration and free agency, and Freeman has 203 over the last two years.  He may just go year-to-year and watch his salary rise rapidly from our already-solid projected starting point of $4.9MM.  Though the Braves have traditional extension candidates in Kimbrel, Medlen, Minor, and Freeman, they have rarely done these types of deals.  Brian McCann's 2007 contract is the most recent example.

A year ago, Heyward was one of the game's best young players not signed to a multiyear extension.  Though he had another strong season, he missed time due to an appendectomy, hamstring strain, and fractured jaw in 2013.  He'll play at age 24 next year and seems primed for a big season.  Johnson, meanwhile, contended for the NL batting title and finished with a .321 average.  Unlike this year, he won't have to worry about having a platoon partner at third base to begin the 2014 season.

Turning to the Braves' bench, Schafer battled injuries but was a useful fourth outfielder.  Infielder Ramiro Pena was off to a nice start until a shoulder injury ended his season in June.  He hopes to be ready for spring training after having surgery.  Elliot Johnson joined the Royals as the player to be named later in the James Shields–Wil Myers deal, after being designated for assignment.  He was the team's regular second baseman at times, but was designated for assignment again in August.  The Braves claimed him off waivers, and he was their starter in the playoffs at second base over Dan Uggla.  Though Johnson wasn't particularly good in 2013, I think the Braves will keep him given the uncertainty with Pena.  Janish has a low salary projection, but seems likely to be non-tendered after giving way to Johnson this year.

Finishing up the Braves' sizeable group, Walden, Venters, and Martinez are also up for arbitration.  Walden is secure after posting a 3.45 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 in 47 innings.  Venters had his second career Tommy John surgery in May, and faces a lower success rate than those who had the procedure once.  We project his salary to stay at the $1.625MM he earned in 2013, though as we saw with the Royals and Felipe Paulino, a slight pay cut is possible.  Venters stands a decent chance of being non-tendered.  Also on thin ice is Cristhian Martinez, who had shoulder surgery in July.

Assuming the Braves tender contracts to Kimbrel, Medlen, Freeman, Heyward, Chris Johnson, Minor, Walden, Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Beachy, and Pena, they're looking at an estimated $35.15MM for 11 arbitration eligible players.       

• Brett Anderson (5.000): $5.5MM.  Arbitration eligible if team chooses $1.5MM buyout over $8MM option.
• Jed Lowrie (5.111): $4.8MM
• Seth Smith (5.119): $4.3MM
• Brandon Moss (3.160): $3.8MM
• John Jaso (4.032): $2.2MM
• Josh Reddick (3.050): $2.2MM
• Jerry Blevins (4.081): $1.5MM
• Daric Barton (4.030): $1.4MM
• Pat Neshek (5.159): $1.2MM
• Jesse Chavez (3.108): $600K
• Scott Sizemore (3.046): $600K
• Fernando Rodriguez (2.142, Super Two): $500K

Anderson is the team's most interesting case.  After a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, we are not projecting an arbitration raise for the 25-year-old southpaw, so we're going with his 2013 salary of $5.5MM.  His 2013 salary, however, was part of a four-year deal Anderson signed in 2010.  For 2014, the A's have the choice of an $8MM option or a $1.5MM buyout, and GM Billy Beane told reporters including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle it's likely the option will be exercised.  If the A's instead decline the option and pay the buyout plus our projected arbitration salary, they could save around a million dollars.  However, declining the 2014 option would nullify a 2015 option for $12MM (which also  has a $1.5MM buyout).  It appears, then, that the A's find it worth $1MM or so now to have the ability to retain Anderson for 2015 at $12MM.  That's curious for a guy who hasn't reached 100 innings since 2010 due to injuries, but perhaps the A's will end up trading Anderson this winter anyway.

Position players Lowrie, Moss, and Jaso are on solid ground for 2014.  Lowrie stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his career, and enters his contract year looking for a repeat.  The A's could look into a team-friendly extension, if Lowrie prefers financial security over playing out 2014 and reaching free agency.  Even shielded against lefties, Moss smacked 30 home runs as the team's primary first baseman.  Also avoiding southpaws, Jaso did his job, ranking second in on-base percentage among all catchers with at least 200 plate appearances.  His season ended with a late July concussion, but he should be OK for 2014.

Reddick saw his power sapped by an April wrist injury, for which he is having offseason surgery.  The A's will retain him.  Smith's production slipped this year, and even against righties his slugging percentage slipped to .408.  He came up big in the division series with a home run against Anibal Sanchez, but at $4.3MM next year I think the A's will non-tender him.

Blevins and Chavez have modest salary projections and should be part of next year's bullpen.  Neshek's ERA was down to 2.10 at the end of June, after which point he posted a 6.75 ERA in 12 innings and was designated for assignment.  He remained in the organization and had his contract purchased in September, but seems likely to be non-tendered.  Rodriguez joined the A's from the Astros in the February Jed Lowrie deal, but needed Tommy John surgery in late March.  Though he's arbitration eligible as a Super Two, he doesn't project to make more than the league minimum, so the A's just have to decide if they want to use a 40-man roster spot on him.

The A's retained Barton through arbitration last offseason for $1.1MM, but designated him for assignment as spring training ended.  He was outrighted to Triple-A, found his way back to the Majors in May, and then was designated and outrighted again.  He came back in August and even made the postseason roster over Nate Freiman.  Barton posted another OBP over .400 in Triple-A this year, but I think the 28-year-old will be non-tendered this time.  Sizemore is also on the bubble after re-tearing his ACL a few games into the season.

Since the A's expect to pick up Anderson's option, we won't include him in our arbitration estimate.  If the A's tender contracts to Lowrie, Moss, Jaso, Reddick, Blevins, and Chavez, they're looking at an estimated $15.1MM for six arbitration eligible players. 

• Neftali Feliz (4.064): $3MM
• Mitch Moreland (3.067): $2.7MM
• Alexi Ogando (3.114): $2MM
• Neal Cotts (5.041): $1.5MM
• Craig Gentry (3.084): $1.1MM
• Adam Rosales (4.049): $900K
• Travis Blackley (3.026): $600K

Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and was activated from the DL in September this year.  He's expected to remain in the bullpen in 2014, and could ascend back to the closer role at some point.  His salary remains low for now.  Ogando's role is undecided for 2014, but injury issues could relegate him to the bullpen again.  Cotts was an incredible story, and should again be an asset in the Rangers' pen as he enters his contract year at age 34.  Cotts hasn't earned much in the game and seemed close to retirement at one point, so it's possible the Rangers could tack on a year at a modest salary.

Moreland, 28, is a tough tender decision.  With a .232/.299/.437 line in 518 plate appearances, plus a DL stint for a hamstring injury, he didn't have the breakout year in 2013 for which the Rangers had hoped.  Jose Dariel Abreu is off the market, but the team could look at free agents like Kendrys Morales, James Loney, Corey Hart, and even Mike Napoli for first base.  If they make an acquisition prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, a trade or non-tender of Moreland will become more likely.  Gentry had an excellent season in limited duty, and will have a role in next year's outfield.

Rosales bounced around between the A's and Rangers multiple times this year, and will probably lose his 40-man roster spot again.  Blackley was removed from the Astros' 40-man roster in August, but was acquired by the Rangers and had his contract purchased.  He's likely to be non-tendered as well.

Moreland is an unknown at this point, but if the Rangers tender contracts to him, Feliz, Ogando, Cotts, and Gentry, they're looking at an estimated $10.3MM for five arbitration eligible players.

• Luke Hochevar (5.151): $5MM
• Greg Holland (3.028): $4.9MM
• Eric Hosmer (2.146, Super Two): $4.1MM
• Emilio Bonifacio (5.066): $3.3MM
• Felipe Paulino (5.163): $1.75MM
• Aaron Crow (3.000): $1.9MM
• Chris Getz (5.035): $1.3MM
• George Kottaras (4.149): $1.2MM
• Justin Maxwell (3.017): $1.2MM
• Luis Mendoza (3.063): $1MM
• Tim Collins (3.000): $1MM
• Brett Hayes (3.017): $900K

In Holland, Hochevar, Collins, and Crow, four mainstays of the Royals' excellent bullpen are arbitration eligible.  Holland was flat-out dominant, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 1.21 ERA with 47 saves and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.  With a few more seasons near that level, he could get expensive in a hurry.  There aren't any recent closers who signed extensions with three years of service, but Brian Wilson received about $19.5MM for his three arbitration years.  Hochevar finally found his calling in the bullpen and was almost as good as Holland.  While he's approaching the market price for a setup man, keeping him in front of Holland and shortening games to seven innings again next year is surely appealing to the Royals.  

Collins and Crow had problems with free passes and scuffled at times in 2013, but are penciled into next year's pen as well.  Collins is a southpaw, but otherwise the Royals are deep in right-handed relief and may be able to use part of the surplus in a trade.

Mendoza won the Royals' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, but was demoted to the bullpen in July.  He was used sparingly in a mop-up role and was hit hard in his six relief appearances to close out the season.  A non-tender is possible despite his low projected salary, or he could be traded.  Paulino underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012, allowing the Royals to pull off the rare salary decrease in arbitration.  His rehab efforts this year were cut short due to a cyst in his shoulder, on which he had surgery in September.  The Royals will be able to bring him back one more time for around the same salary, and if his recovery is going well, it's probably worth doing.

After a lousy 2012, Hosmer bounced back with a strong campaign just in time for the first of four potential arbitration years.  I'd suggest an Allen Craig or Billy Butler type of extension, but Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, and he's never done that type of deal.  Elsewhere among the Royals' position players, Bonifacio and Maxwell will have roles on next year's team, with strong showings after coming over in summer trades.

Though they would be cheap to retain, Getz, Hayes, and Kottaras are non-tender candidates.  Getz won the Royals' starting second base job out of Spring Training, but was optioned to Triple-A in June and missed time with a knee injury upon his return to the Majors.  Hayes, a November waiver claim from the Marlins, was on and off the 40-man roster this year and was third on the Royals' catching depth chart.  Kottaras, a January waiver claim from the Athletics, won the backup catcher job out of camp and held it for the season.  It seems likely Hayes will lose his 40-man spot again, while Kottaras may stay on as Salvador Perez's backup unless the Royals decide they need an upgrade.

Assuming the Royals tender contracts to Hochevar, Holland, Hosmer, Bonifacio, Paulino, Crow, Kottaras, Maxwell, and Collins, they're looking at an estimated $24.35MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

• Mark Trumbo (3.027): $4.7MM
• Jerome Williams (5.049): $3.9MM
• Tommy Hanson (4.114): $3.9MM
• Ernesto Frieri (3.101): $3.4MM
• Kevin Jepsen (3.163): $1.4MM
• Juan Gutierrez (4.035): $1.1MM
• Peter Bourjos (3.062): $1.1MM
• Chris Nelson (2.122, Super Two): $1MM

Trumbo projects for a healthy salary his first time through arbitration, with career numbers of 95 home runs and 284 RBI and a platform year with 34 homers and 100 knocked in.  His flaw is a .299 career on-base percentage, which should improve if he holds onto gains in his walk rate and his batting average recovers.  There is value in a player with Trumbo's profile, especially at $4.7MM.  I wouldn't be too aggressive about a long-term deal, though, and a healthy Albert Pujols would give the Angels the depth to consider trading Trumbo.

Bourjos is another trade candidate.  This year a hamstring injury and wrist fracture each cost him over a month, with September wrist surgery ending his season.  Angels GM Jerry Dipoto showed faith in Bourjos as his starting center fielder entering the season, and if Trumbo, Pujols, and Josh Hamilton are rotated through the designated hitter spot in 2014, there's room for everyone to start.  On the other hand, MVP candidate Mike Trout is more than capable of handling center, making a Bourjos trade possible.  Bourjos' value is at a low point after the injuries limited him to just 55 games in 2013, but he's also quite affordable his first time through arbitration and should remain cheap beyond 2014.

Frieri notched 37 saves in 2013, so he'll get paid through arbitration despite allowing 11 home runs with a 3.80 ERA.  Agents of relievers like Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Brian Wilson are surely hoping the Angels will throw some money at the ninth inning this winter, pushing Frieri to a setup role.  Regardless, he's worth retaining at his projected salary.

The Angels' bullpen also includes arbitration eligible relievers Jepsen and Gutierrez.  Jepsen, 29, averaged almost 96 miles per hour on his fastball and whiffed a batter per inning in 2013.  He also allowed 41 hits in 36 innings, missing time due to a lat strain and emergency appendectomy.  With a $1.4MM projection, he's worth retaining.  Gutierrez, another hard thrower, won a spot in the Royals' bullpen out of Spring Training but was designated for assignment in July.  The Angels added him on a waiver claim, and he posted a 5.19 ERA for them in 26 innings despite striking out 9.7 per nine innings.  His spot on the 40-man roster seems tenuous, even with a low projected salary.

Williams was again a useful swingman, but with his salary projected to nearly double, the Angels might consider non-tendering him and using the funds elsewhere.  Hanson is a certain non-tender, after missing significant time due to a personal matter, hitting the DL for a forearm strain, and getting a demotion to Triple-A.  At just 27 years old, Hanson's former promise may earn him a big league contract on the free agent market, if his health checks out.

With two years and 122 days of Major League service, Nelson represents the unofficial Super Two cutoff for 2013.  With a projected salary only $500K over the league minimum, that's not a big factor in the Angels' tender decision.  Nelson joined the Angels from the Yankees on a May 18th waiver claim, but was designated for assignment less than a month later.  He remained in the organization after accepting an outright assignment, and after finding his way back to the bigs hit the DL for a hamstring injury.  Expect him to be cut loose by the Angels.

If the Angels tender contracts to Trumbo, Frieri, Jepsen, and Bourjos, they're looking at a projected $10.6MM for four arbitration eligible players.

• Jim Johnson (5.165): $10.8MM
• Chris Davis (4.061): $10MM
• Matt Wieters (4.129): $7.9MM
• Bud Norris (4.068): $5MM
• Tommy Hunter (4.066): $3.1MM
• Brian Matusz (3.156): $2.1MM
• Nolan Reimold (4.004): $1.2MM
• Troy Patton (3.150): $1.2MM
• Steve Pearce (4.116): $1.1MM
• Chris Dickerson (3.133): $700K
• Dan Johnson (3.168): Contract includes $800K club option for 2014.  If declined, MLBTR's projected arbitration salary is equal to the league minimum $500K. 

Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman.  It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012.  Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well.  

This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise.  Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM.  The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM.  We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras.  Can Boras get there?  After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis.  Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras.  Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014.

On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well.  This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan.  Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year.  This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities.  There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well.

That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever — his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs.  Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role.  The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons.  This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014.  "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market.

Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%.  The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements.  Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate.  The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage.  Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015.  It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish.

Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise.  He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot.  Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds.  He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable.

The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training.  He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances.  I think he'll stick around. 

Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates.  Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues.  Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.  He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September.  Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team.

If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players. 

• David Price (4.164): $13.1MM
• Matt Joyce (4.123): $3.7MM
• Jeff Niemann (5.022): $3MM
• Jeremy Hellickson (3.045): $3.3MM
• Wesley Wright (4.105): $1.4MM
• Sean Rodriguez (4.133): $1.3MM
• Jake McGee (2.127, Super Two): $1.2MM
• Jose Lobaton (2.138, Super Two): $1MM
• Sam Fuld (3.140): $900K
• Cesar Ramos (3.003): $700K

Price projects to have the third-largest salary of any arbitration eligible player, and he'll go to arbitration again after the 2014 season.  He missed over a month with triceps tightness this year and came back much improved, posting a 2.53 ERA in his final 18 starts with a K/BB ratio near eight.  The 28-year-old is far superior to any free agent starter and one of the best in baseball.  He told reporters on an October conference call he expects to be traded this winter, perhaps due to his rising salary, diminishing team control, and the precedent set by the Rays with James Shields and Matt Garza.  Indeed, a blockbuster deal this winter seems likely, and if Price lands with a new team, that club will surely have interest in locking him up barring further health complications.  I anticipate something in the range of five years and $125MM, if the contract includes his final arbitration year.  Otherwise Price could wait, re-establish his health in 2014, and use Clayton Kershaw's next contract to leap past the $135-140MM in new money guaranteed to Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

The rest of the Rays' arbitration class is more pedestrian.  Joyce continued to serve as a useful platoon outfielder.  Rodriguez, Lobaton, and Fuld held down lesser reserve roles, with Fuld facing at least some threat of a non-tender despite another low salary projection.

Starters Hellickson and Niemann project for similar salaries.  Despite improved peripheral stats, Hellickson's third season was his worst in terms of ERA, with a 5.17 mark.  The Rays sent him to the minors for a brief period toward the end of the season, which was used as a break since the organization never intended to have him pitch at a lower level.  Hellickson is likely penciled into next year's rotation, especially if Price is on the move.  Niemann has missed most of the last two seasons, and had shoulder surgery in April this year.  Another $3MM guarantee would be risky, so a non-tender seems likely.

Wright, McGee, and Ramos are up for arbitration in the bullpen, and all seem in good standing after decent seasons.

Assuming the Rays tender contracts to Price, Joyce, Hellickson, Wright, Rodriguez, McGee, Lobaton, and Ramos, they're looking at an estimated $25.7MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

• Brad Ziegler (5.122): $5MM
• Gerardo Parra (4.145): $4.2MM
• Joe Thatcher (5.019): $2MM
• Tony Sipp (4.138): $1.4MM
• Daniel Hudson (3.117): $1.1MM
• Josh Collmenter (3.000): $900K
• Matt Reynolds (3.046): Avoided arbitration.  $550K for 2014, $600K club option with a $50K buyout for '15

Due to the struggles of the team's other relievers, Ziegler ascended to the Diamondbacks' closer role in July and ended up recording 13 saves and 11 holds.  He projects to earn a nice $5MM salary in his contract year, and it seems possible the D'Backs try to tack on an additional season.

Parra had one of the quietest 4.6 win seasons you'll see, due mainly to his exceptional defense in right and center field.  Defense doesn't generally pay in arbitration, but if Parra picks up another Gold Glove award he might see a salary boost from it.  He also set career bests with 10 home runs and 79 runs scored.  Parra's skillset is destined to remain undervalued, but with free agency coming up after 2015, an extension might be wise for Arizona.

Thatcher was the biggest name the D'Backs received for two-plus years of Ian Kennedy, and he had several rough outings in the weeks following the trade.  The team would look pretty bad in cutting him loose this winter, but a non-tender or trade remains possible.  Sipp seems a good bet to be non-tendered following a lackluster season.  Collmenter, working full-time in relief for the first time, put together a strong 92-inning campaign and will be a part of next year's bullpen.

Hudson had Tommy John surgery in July 2012 and was close to returning this summer when he unfortunately re-tore his elbow ligament.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic talked to Reds chief medical director Tim Kremcheck in June, who said the failure rate of a second Tommy John procedure is in the 40-50% range.  In that article, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers suggested Hudson has a better chance of returning as a reliever this time.  As Hudson later noted to Piecoro in September, "I’m in a pretty weird situation going into my first year of arbitration."  In that article, Towers talked about being creative in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline, and Hudson says he would like to stay.  If nothing can be worked out by the deadline, a non-tender does not seem out of the question.

There is a good amount of uncertainty with Hudson and Thatcher.  But if those two plus Ziegler, Parra, and Collmenter are tendered contracts, the Diamondbacks are looking at an estimated $13.2MM for five arbitration eligible players, plus $600K for Reynolds to bring the total to $13.8MM.