7:19pm: The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with arbitration-eligible players is set for Thursday, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball reports (on X) that the deadline is 8:00 pm EST.

Initially, that had been set for Friday afternoon. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner notes (X link) that the league and Players Association agreed last month to move it up a day. It’s unclear why that decision was made. In any event, it’ll spur some activity a day earlier than anticipated.

The salary exchange date is not necessarily a deadline for teams to negotiate with their arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players are free to continue talks right up until a hearing (which generally run from mid-February into the beginning of March). It serves as an anchoring point in negotiations, though, and many teams treat it as an unofficial deadline to avoid a hearing. It’ll therefore spur a large number of salary agreements — Cal Quantrill, JT Brubaker and Hoby Milner all agreed to deals this afternoon — and could be the catalyst for a trade or two.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players at the start of the offseason. Juan Soto could top Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting $30MM mark in his final year of eligibility. Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gleyber Torres and trade candidates like Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease are all in line for notable sums in their own right.

Most players who aren’t on a guaranteed contract and have between three and six years of MLB service qualify for arbitration. The top 22% of players in service time with between two and three years also qualify one offseason early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Here are the thresholds from prior offseasons:

• 2022: 2.128
• 2021: 2.116
• 2020: 2.125
• 2019: 2.115
• 2018: 2.134
• 2017: 2.123
• 2016: 2.131
• 2015: 2.130
• 2014: 2.133
• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.140
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

That’s generally not the most consequential cutoff for fans but can be quite meaningful for players. The most straightforward benefit is that early arbitration gives the player a raise over the approximate league minimum salary he’d otherwise have made. It also sets a higher baseline for arbitration raises, offering greater benefits over future seasons in a process designed to escalate salaries year over year.

As Blum points out, this year’s lower cutoff was beneficial for a few players. Marlins outfielder Jesús Sánchez and Yankees reliever Albert Abreu are the last qualifiers with matching service times at the 2.118 stopping point. Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo is narrowly above the mark at 2.119 years. While Abreu and Baddoo are fringe roster players who could ostensibly be non-tendered, Sánchez should comfortably hold a spot in Miami. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $2MM salary. Blum adds that Dean Kremer, Alex Lange and William Contreras were among the notable players who landed just short of qualification.

24 players qualified for Super Two overall. Teams have until November 17 to determine whether to tender contracts to members of their arbitration class.

Read more

AL East

• Orioles (7 arbitration eligible players)
• Red Sox (10)
• Yankees (6)
• Rays (6)
• Blue Jays (7)

AL Central

• White Sox (2)
• Indians (8)
• Tigers (6)
• Royals (8)
• Twins (6)

AL West

• Angels (6)
• Athletics (10)
• Mariners (5)
• Rangers (10)

NL East

• Braves (5)
• Marlins (9)
• Mets (5)
• Phillies (6)
• Nationals (7)

NL Central

• Cubs (6)
• Reds (7)
• Astros (2)
• Brewers (9)
• Pirates (11)
• Cardinals (4)

NL West

• Diamondbacks (8)
• Rockies (4)
• Dodgers (6)
• Padres (13)
• Giants (13)

• First time: Jason Motte
• Second time: Kyle McClellan
• Third time: Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker

Theriot projects for a $3.9MM salary and is likely to be non-tendered.  The statuses of Rafael Furcal, Nick Punto, and Schumaker will be factors, but Theriot makes too much money to continue on as a bench player and he's not the team's first choice at either middle infield position.  Schumaker is a non-tender candidate as well, though he's more versatile than Theriot and projects at a more affordable $3.1MM.  Motte ($1.7MM) and McClellan ($2.7MM) will be part of next year's club.  

If the Cardinals exercise their club options for Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Octavio Dotel, they'll have about $84MM in contractual commitments.  Add $4.4MM for Motte and McClellan and they're at $88.3MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  A $110MM payroll would leave over $20MM in flexibility.  One can certainly picture scenarios where a new Pujols contract fits in, though they'd probably have to take payroll a bit higher to sign Furcal and a few other minor pieces.  A trip to the World Series helps the payroll situation.

• First time: Robby Hammock, Micah Owings, Gerardo Parra, Ryan Roberts
• Second time: Brad Ziegler, Sean Burroughs    
• Third time: Joe Saunders, Miguel Montero

Hammock ($900K), Burroughs ($600K), and Owings ($800K) are likely non-tender candidates.  Hammock was barely on the Diamondbacks' 40-man roster, so they probably won't feel the need to keep him there.  Burroughs was outrighted in June and re-added, so he could be expendable.  And while Owings was useful on the surface, he's a pitcher the team could non-tender and try to re-sign to a minor league deal.

Parra, a potential Super Two, projects to earn $1.7MM.  Roberts projects for the same, and we have Ziegler at $1.8MM.  Montero should make a decent buck at around $5.3MM.

We project Saunders for $8.7MM, which might be high for an innings guy who shouldn't be expected to repeat his 3.69 ERA.  D'Backs GM Kevin Towers indicated recently that a non-tender or trade is possible, depending on the team's budget and their confidence in their younger pitchers.  I think Towers would find a team willing to tender Saunders a contract.

If Parra, Roberts, Ziegler, Montero, and Saunders are retained, the total should be around $19.2MM.  If Willie Bloomquist and Henry Blanco return at their mutual option prices, players under contract will earn $30.758MM for a total of about $50MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  A return to the $70MM payroll range would leave around $20MM in flexibility, with the subtraction of Saunders potentially bringing that amount closer to $29MM.

Towers told Nick Piecoro he doesn't see "big, big needs" for his team but wouldn't rule out the right marquee player.  As a team free of eight-figure commitments, the D'Backs have the flexibility to make a major addition this offseason.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Casey McGehee, Nyjer Morgan, George Kottaras, Mitch Stetter
• Second time: Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Josh Wilson
• Third time: Shaun Marcum, Carlos Gomez

Kottaras, Stetter, Wilson, and Parra appear to be non-tender candidates.  Parra missed all of 2011, eventually needing elbow surgery, and he'd be owed a minimum of $960K if tendered a contract.  The other three are in the $700-800K range, so a case could be made for keeping them.  Kottaras was viewed as expendable by the Brewers when they outrighted him in April, though he ended up being useful in limited duty.  Stetter missed most of the season with a hip injury, while Wilson didn't do anything noteworthy.

We can't rule out the possibility of a McGehee non-tender, but a trade seems more likely.  The 29-year-old third baseman had a lost 2011 season, but he hit .291/.346/.477 over 1,064 plate appearances the previous two years.  At a projected $3.1MM, some team will want to give him a shot.

Marcum is the team's most expensive arbitration eligible player at a projected $6.8MM.  Peers such as Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, John Danks, and Joe Saunders project in the $8-9MM range, so we'll have to see if they lift Marcum up a bit.  Loe ($2.8MM), Morgan ($1.9MM), and Gomez ($1.8MM) should also be tendered contracts.  Gomez had a rough year, missing time with a broken clavicle, but at $1.8MM his defense should make him worth retaining.

Including buyouts for Yuniesky Betancourt and Francisco Rodriguez, the Brewers have about $58.58MM in contractual commitments for 2012.  If they retain McGehee, Morgan, Loe, Marcum, and Gomez, that'd add $16.4MM for a total of about $75MM.  Assuming a steady payroll, that'd leave less than $9MM in 2012 flexibility before accounting for minimum salary players.  McGehee's salary could be shedded, but without a payroll increase the Brewers do not have much room to spend this winter.  

• First time: Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Nate Schierholtz, Eli Whiteside, Emmanuel Burriss
• Second time: Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla
• Third time: Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Keppinger, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Vogelsong     

With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Giants are tied with the Padres for having the biggest group we've reviewed so far.  The difference?  Lincecum projects to earn about as much as all 13 arbitration eligible Padres combined.

Lincecum is primed for a historic arbitration case, as I explained in detail in May.  At that time, one agent told me, "This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."  The $19MM figure mentioned by agents at the time holds up under Matt Swartz's arbitration projection system, which predicts $19.2MM assuming Lincecum is working from a $14.1MM base in 2011.  No matter what the exact number, Lincecum will set an arbitration record unless he signs a multiyear deal.  He's open to another two-year contract, and I think something like $35MM would be a good deal for the club.  Keep in mind that Lincecum will otherwise be arbitration eligible one last time for 2013.

Giants GM Brian Sabean admitted to reporters in September that the team will probably not bring all 13 arbitration eligible players back.  Sanchez, with a projected $5.2MM salary, would seem a prime non-tender candidate.  However, Sabean suggested Sanchez would be in the rotation mix next year.  Sabean said Keppinger "might be a luxury item" for next year, since Freddy Sanchez is under contract.  At a projected $2.7MM, I think the Giants will be able to make a trade if they feel Sanchez is ready.

I think Torres at a projected $2.5MM is a candidate to be non-tendered.  Fontenot ($1.3MM), Whiteside ($700K), and Burriss ($600K) are on the bubble as well.  That leaves Sandoval ($3.2MM), Vogelsong ($2.5MM), Ramirez ($2.3MM), Casilla ($1.9MM), Romo ($1.3MM), and Schierholtz ($1.2MM) as players you can expect back in 2012.   

If Torres, Fontenot, Burriss, and Whiteside are non-tendered, the remaining nine could cost the Giants an estimated $39.5MM.  Sabean expects a $124MM payroll.  The team owes $72.433MM to players under contract, if Jeremy Affeldt's buyout is excluded but Aaron Rowand's salary is included.  Add the arbitration group and we're up at $112MM, $12MM shy of Sabean's payroll figure, before minimum salary players are considered.  The Giants expect to re-sign Affeldt, and perhaps a center fielder/leadoff man.  That might be all they can afford, but as Sabean indicated, the team's flexibility will hinge on how much money they allocate toward retaining their top pitchers.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Clayton Kershaw
• Second time: Tony Gwynn Jr.
• Third time: Matt Kemp, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo
• Fourth time: Andre Ethier

Should Kershaw win the Cy Young award, our model projects a record-shattering first-time pitcher salary of $8.4MM.  Tim Lincecum had two Cy Youngs under his belt when he submitted for $13MM against the Giants' $8MM figure in February of 2010.  We know Lincecum would have gotten one of those two figures had he not signed an extension.  Kershaw's agents, the Hendricks brothers, could position their client as Lincecum Lite.  Kershaw won't have the two Cys but he will have almost 120 more innings, seven more wins, and pretty much the same ERA Lincecum did.

Kemp could bring an MVP award or at least a lot of votes to the arbitration table.  Matt Swartz's work for MLBTR has shown that MVP and Cy Young awards boost salary more for first-time arbitration eligibles, so Kemp's huge payday may come mostly from his stellar stats.  The model projects a $16.3MM salary for Kemp, though admittedly a $9.35MM raise might be a tough sell for his agent Dave Stewart.  Matt explained to me, "There's just no one in recent history who has the kind of AVG/SB combined with the HR/RBI like Kemp, so he’s basically getting a Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard raise and a B.J. Upton/Corey Patterson raise at the same time."  Matt notes that the Kemp and Kershaw projections have the widest error bars, because there is so little precedent for them.

Ethier will be well-paid as well; he projects at $10.7MM.  That represents a pretty small raise from the last year of his two-year deal, as Ethier was lacking in counting stats this year.  A few days ago, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Jim Bowden he's not inclined to trade Ethier.  Colletti said in September he'd love to have Loney back; we think the first baseman could get $6.5MM in arbitration.  Kuo, a non-tender candidate, projects at a salary reduction to about $2.5MM.  Gwynn is on the bubble as well; he could make $1.1MM in arbitration.

If all six arbitration eligible Dodgers are retained, the total could reach a staggering $45MM.  But if Loney, Kuo, and Gwynn are deemed too expensive at arbitration prices, that'd trim about $10MM.  Cot's Baseball Contracts shows contractual commitments totaling $46.2MM for 2012, including $11.5MM for Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones.  Even the high-end arbitration estimate puts the Dodgers around $90MM before accounting for minimum salary players, and that's $30MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll.  Further savings could be found through trades or non-tenders, or reduced salaries in long-term deals for Kershaw and/or Kemp.  The team's ownership turmoil figures to result in a reduced payroll, but Colletti seems to think he can afford some significant free agents.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time:  Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish    
• Second time: Edinson Volquez, Jared Burton, Bill Bray
• Third time: Nick Masset

I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K.  The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.

Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts.  A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K).  Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him.  The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.

If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM.  Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM.  GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler
• Second time: Ian Stewart
• Third time: Ryan Spilborghs

Having signed Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Hammel, Matt Lindstrom, Chris Iannetta, and Carlos Gonzalez to multiyear deals, the Rockies are left with only four arbitration eligible players.

Stewart and Spilborghs are non-tender candidates.  Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd recently said he's willing to give Stewart another opportunity, implying he will pay the $2MM or so that will be required if the third baseman is tendered a contract in December.  Two months remain until the non-tender deadline, however.  There is a case to keep Spilborghs at an approximate $2MM despite his 2011 struggles.  The 32-year-old had been a very useful fourth outfielder prior to this year and may have trade value at that price.

As a potential Super Two, Fowler projects to fall in the $2MM range as well.  Smith, who would be around $2.6MM, has been mentioned as potential trade bait should the Rockies sign an outfielder.

Cot's Baseball Contracts shows the Rockies have about $61MM owed to players under contract for next year.  If all four arbitration eligibles are retained, they'd be around $70MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  The Rockies would have around $13MM in 2012 flexibility, though as much as $18MM more could be cleared if the team non-tenders or trades Stewart, Spilborghs, Smith, Huston Street, and Ty Wigginton.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Clayton Richard, Jeff Fulchino, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson
• Second time: Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez
• Third time: Jeremy Hermida

With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date.  It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.

The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates.  September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so.  Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K).  There are reasons to retain several of them.  Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010.  Gonzalez plays capable defense.  Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.

Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground.  Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery.  There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.

I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM.  The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield.  Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered.  Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Randy Wells, Blake DeWitt
• Second time: Geovany Soto
• Third time: Matt Garza, Jeff Baker, Koyie Hill

Hill is the most likely non-tender in this group.  However, he'd only get a mild raise to $850K, and it's quite possible the Cubs keep him around due to defense, familiarity with the pitching staff, and other intangibles.  

Wells ($2.2MM), Soto ($4MM), and Baker ($1.4MM) had disappointing seasons, but should be part of the 2012 club.  DeWitt showed enough promise to be worth $1.2MM.  Garza represents the Cubs' headline arbitration case, and we project $8.7MM for him.  Jeremy Guthrie and John Danks will be current comparables for Garza.  There is not much recent precedent for a pitcher with this type of track record to make it to his third arbitration year.

If the Cubs retain all six of their arbitration eligibles, we project $18.4MM in total salary.  Assuming Ryan Dempster exercises his player option and Aramis Ramirez doesn't get a new contract prior to his option decision, the Cubs have around $91MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  If payroll remains in the $134MM range, the Cubs would have around $40MM to spend in 2012 salaries.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

• First time: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann
• Second time: John Lannan, Michael Morse, Doug Slaten
• Third time: Tom Gorzelanny, Jesus Flores

Slaten battled a sore elbow this year, tossing only 16 1/3 innings in the Majors.  At $900K he'd be cheap to retain, but he is a candidate to be non-tendered.  Flores' shoulder injury knocked him down the Nationals' catching depth chart, and they could look to trade him before the December 12th non-tender deadline.  We project a salary of around $800K, so some team will likely take a chance if the Nationals don't.  Gorzelanny cleared waivers in August, indicating no team found him a good value at a $2.1MM salary this year.  Next year it'd be around $2.8MM through arbitration.  His strikeout and walk rates in 15 starts this year were solid, though his suitors may wait out the Nats to see if they tender him a contract.

Lannan ($4.8MM), Morse ($3.7MM), Zimmermann ($1.8MM), and Clippard ($1.7MM) all project to be relatively affordable and part of the 2012 Nationals.  The four players project to earn a total of $12MM next year.

Including that $12MM, the Nationals have about $57MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  Holding payroll steady at this year's $68MM wouldn't leave much flexibility, but the Nats are capable of going beyond that number in their offseason quest to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder. 

• First time: J.A. Happ, Alberto Arias
• Second time: None
• Third time: None
• Fourth time: Humberto Quintero

Having traded Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger in July, the Astros are left with few arbitration concerns.  Arias has missed the last two seasons due to shoulder issues, and is likely to be cut loose.

Happ will be tendered a contract, and should land around $2.3MM. Quintero has at least been a consistent backup catcher, and it'd cost $1.2MM to retain him.

Add $3.5MM for Happ and Quintero to the team's $47.25MM in 2012 commitments, and the Astros are around $51MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  They entered this season with a $77MM payroll, so there's room to tinker on the free agent market and perhaps add some veteran placeholders.