Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.
The projections:
Angels (10)
- Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
- Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
- Connor Brogdon (4.090): $1MM
- Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
- Carson Fulmer (4.018): $1.2MM
- Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
- Jose Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
- Carter Kieboom (3.009): $800K
- Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
- Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM
Astros (16)
- Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM
- Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM
- Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM
- Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM
- Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM
- Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM
- Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM
- Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM
- Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM
- Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM
- Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM
- Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM
- Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900K
Athletics (5)
- Austin Wynns (5.017): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.149): $900K
Blue Jays (7)
- Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM
- Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM
- Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM
- Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM
- Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM
- Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K
- Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MM
Braves (9)
- Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6MM
- Joel Payamps (4.117): $3.4MM
- Jose Suarez (4.064): $1.5MM
- Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2MM
- Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9MM
- Eli White (3.140): $1.2MM
- Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800K
- Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1MM
- Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5MM
Brewers (7)
- Jake Bauers (5.084): $2MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.142): $7.8MM
- William Contreras (4.112): $11.1MM (Brewers hold a $12MM club option with a $100K buyout)
- Nick Mears (4.022): $1.6MM
- Trevor Megill (4.002): $4.2MM
- Garrett Mitchell (3.040): $1MM
- Brice Turang (2.165): $4.4MM
Cardinals (9)
- Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
- JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
- John King (4.148): $2.1MM
- Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
- Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
- Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
- Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
- Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
- Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MM
Cubs (4)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
Diamondbacks (11)
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM
- Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM
- Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM
- Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.55MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM
- Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM
- Michael Grove (3.031): $800K
- Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MM
Giants (5)
- JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
- Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM
Guardians (8)
- Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM
- Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM
- Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM
- Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM
- Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM
- Will Brennan (2.155): $900K
- David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM
- Matt Festa (2.153): $1MM
Marlins (7)
- Anthony Bender (4.153): $2.3MM
- Braxton Garrett (3.168): $1.53MM
- Edward Cabrera (3.147): $3.7MM
- Ryan Weathers (3.066): $1.5MM
- Andrew Nardi (3.053): $800K
- Max Meyer (2.166): $1.3MM
- Calvin Faucher (2.156): $1.9MM
Mariners (10)
- Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
- Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
- Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
- Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
- George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
- Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
- Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
- Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
- Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM
Mets (9)
- Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM
- Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM
- David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM
- Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM
- Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM
- Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM
- Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM
- Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM
- Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MM
Nationals (9)
- Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM
- Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM
- Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM
- Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM
- CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM
- Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MM
Orioles (14)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- Jose Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suarez (3.019): $900K
Padres (7)
- Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
- Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
- Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
- JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
- Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
- Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
- Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM
Phillies (9)
- Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
- Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
- Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
- Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
- Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
- Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
- Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
Pirates (9)
- Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
- Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
- Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
- Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
- Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
- Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
- Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
- Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM
Rangers (9)
- Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
- Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
- Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
- Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
- Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
- Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
- Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
- Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
- Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM
Rays (17)
- Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
- Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
- Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM (Rays hold a $2.45MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
- Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
- Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
- Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
- Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
- Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
- Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
- Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
- Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
- Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
- Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM
- Manuel Rodriguez (2.139): $1.2MM
Red Sox (9)
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
- Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $100K buyout)
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
Reds (14)
- Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM
- Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM
- Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM
- Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM
- TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM
- Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM
- Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM
- Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM
- Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MM
- Brandon Williamson (2.139): $800K
Rockies (7)
- Thairo Estrada (5.153): $3.8MM (Estrada’s contract contains a $7MM mutual option with a $750K buyout)
- Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM
- Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (3.150): $900K
- Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM
- Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM
- Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MM
Royals (16)
- Taylor Clarke (5.148): $1.9MM
- Kris Bubic (5.135): $6MM
- John Schreiber (5.027): $3.8MM
- Jonathan India (5.000): $7.4MM
- Kyle Wright (4.151): $1.8MM
- Kyle Isbel (4.043): $2.7MM
- Bailey Falter (3.138): $3.3MM
- Daniel Lynch IV (3.136): $1.3MM
- Sam Long (3.121): $950K
- Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): $5.4MM
- Angel Zerpa (3.082): $1.2MM
- Michael Massey (3.068): $2MM
- MJ Melendez (3.016): $2.65MM
- Maikel Garcia (2.168): $4.8MM
- James McArthur (2.150): $800K
- Lucas Erceg (2.136): $1.9MM
Tigers (14)
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
- Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
- Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
- Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
- Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
- Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
- Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
- Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM
- Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
- Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
- Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
- Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
- Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM
Twins (10)
- Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
- Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
- Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
- Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
- Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
- Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
- Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
- Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
- Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM
White Sox (3)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
- Derek Hill (3.040): $1MM
Yankees (14)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM
- David Bednar (5.073): $9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM
- Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM
- Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM
- Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K
- Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K
- Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM
- Scott Effross (3.063): $800K
- Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM
- Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM
- Jose Caballero (2.170): $1.9MM
Little confused. Elly has more or as much service time as McLain. Why isn’t he arb eligible?
Elly has 2.118, and cut off for Super Two somewhere around 2.130ish…just falling short most likely.
I checked. McLain’s first game was on 5-18-23; Elly’s first game was on 6-6-23. So Elly just falls short as MarioP mentioned.
Your right. Technically McClain has more service time than Elly. Still a chance Elly can be eligible for Super 2 depending on when the cutoff is.
Elly & Abbott could easily qualify for the Reds
2024: 2.132
2023: 2.118
2022: 2.128
2021: 2.116
2020: 2.125
2019: 2.115
2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139
I know there are a couple of players who could qualify that’s not mentioned here. To me it seems like there are a lot more players who could be super 2 eligible this winter.
It’s the top 22% of the 2 year class (who spent at least 1/2 the 2025 season on the active roster or IL), so the amount of players that qualify doesn’t change by much year over year just the service time required to reach that 22%. Usually about 30 players.
You are right. I think if I’m not mistaken anyone who has 86 days of service time and is at the cutoff or above it becomes eligible.
MLBTR has 37 players listed above as possible qualifiers (if I counted correctly) and the minimum service is 2.136 so the Reds probably got lucky they’ll save some money on those 2 players if these service amounts are all correct. Pretty sure those players will still qualify for money from the pre-arb pool though.
They’ve updated it, now 40 players listed at 2.136 to 2.171 years of service. I’m sure they are right in the neighborhood of the cutoff if not exactly on it.
I averaged all the cutoffs from the last 16 years since 2009 and the average came out to 2.128, so it should be generally around that number give or take.
I wonder if the players union can figure out a proposal to recalibrate arbitration salaries. Guys like
Neto
Langeliera
Turang
Etc
Are getting vastly underpaid.
Probably don’t want to propose recalibration….would certainly suggest the opposite need to recalibrate for the larger number that are vastly overpaid.
There’s an easy way to recalibrate salaries for overpaid players. It’s called non-tender.
Nobody forces owners to offer the contracts they offer. In fact they often bid against each other.
They do have a $50M pool that gets distributed among them to try and lessen the imbalance a little bit
Actually I double checked and this only goes to pre-arbitration players so never mind
The union reps are typically older guys who primarily care about cash for free agent contracts and feel like they’ve paid their dues so should the next wave through.
The solution would be to allow arbitrators to use salaries for all players at a position rather than only players with similar service time. The current system is akin to an appraiser using home values for people who sold after 3 years rather than the current market rate for a home.
Why would MLB agree to pay a guy in his 3rd, 4th, or 5th year based on a player whose salary is based off of 10 or 15 years of service? There’s a reason why it’s based on similar players salaries in that year.
Halos, to take your home analogy in the right direction though would say when you’re looking at comps, you dont usually compare a 50 year old home to a newly built one. You find homes that have been around roughly the same amount of time.
It’s much better to compare the salaries of guys with an equal amount of service time, with the usually corresponding equal amount of wear and tear on their bodies.
I dont see paying a 3rd year player who is super-two off the salary a free-agent 8x all-star got.
It’s particularly important to small and mid-market teams financially as well.
A guy in his 3rd through 5th year is more likely to meet or exceed his platform year. A guy in his 10th to 15th year is almost certain to decline.
I’m a big fan of increasing minimum wage and arbitration salaries. Obviously not to full free agent levels, but to pretend a shortstop coming off consecutive 5.1 bWAR seasons like Neto shouldn’t be compared to all of his peers to some degree is overly harsh.
At the end of the day, whatever the owners give up, or whatever the players give up, will be offset somewhere else. Neither side will give something away for free.
He is compared to a degree though. They look at what guys with his service time got, and, compare his production to what they did for what they earned. It’s how guys keep raising the bar on Arb salaries naturally.
If he’s better than the usual guy for his service time, he’ll make more than them.
LOL. Don’t worry about those guys. They’ll get their payday.
Gosolin just underwent his second TJ, he’s not going to get 5.4 mil. I think he’ll be non tendered. He wont be back until 2027 and the earliest.
He got $5.4m this season. Arbitration salaries don’t go down, so he’ll just get the same number again.
Unless he is non tendered and with all of the SP options available to LaD and his injury history, I think he is a very possible non-tender candidate.
Maybe with a minor league deal for 2 mil with various player opt outs as a back up deal.
Well yes, if he gets non-tendered, he’s not getting it. I took corrosive23’s comment to mean he didn’t think the player would get that in arbitration, which he will.
The team can, and very likely could non-tender him, but he still will have been awarded 5.4m in arbitration.
Canuckle – I think, but may be wrong, the non-tendered deadline is first in the process so, if that happens, I don’t think the process ever allows him to ever get 5.4 m in arbitration in 2025.
If they offer, it can go still go down and has in the past but not often but typically not much and only when a player loses most or a full season like TG did and could be a question mark for health going forward.
Right not just a bunch of what ifs – if LAD (who has all medicals) believes he is good to go for 2026, they probably offer and keep as depth / trade piece – they can afford it:
Gonsolin’s 2026 Salary can be reduced by no more than 20% as he received a salary of 5.4 M$ in both 2024 and 2025 (his 2024 salary was 3.4 M$ base + 2 M$ in earned incentives from 2023).
RULE: The club’s offer must be at least the MLB minimum salary, and, in most cases, must be at least 80% of the player’s previous year’s salary and at least 70% of the player’s salary from two seasons back. However, if the player received a raise in excess of 50% by a salary arbitration panel the previous season, a 20% maximum salary reduction from the previous season and a 30% maximum salary reduction from two seasons back does not apply, and the club only has to offer at least the MLB minimum salary.
Mrkism – thanks for the detail on the rule and as it applies to TG based on history.
My query is if LAD elects to offer (doesnt non-tender) as step 1, say that mlb minimum, then the process either becomes a negotiation for a period and if not successful, then submitting to an arbitrator for selecting either side’s number.
Is this accurate characterization of the next steps, or if not, keep educating.
A more likely outcome is signing a 2 year contract for much less than 5.4/per. Maybe something in the 2yr, 6-7m total range, with a 3rd year option of some sort. If a team option, maybe he gets an extra million tacked on, 2yr/8m with say a 7m option with a 500k buyout. If a vesting option, maybe not.
If I’m the Dodgers there is no chance I offer him a big league contract (seeing as how he’s going to miss the entire season in all likelihood and then have the 6 years necessary to achieve FA 12 months from now). I nontender him and sign him to a minor league contract, then this time next year (if he’s looking like he’s near game ready) I purchase the contract and offer him ~4.5 M$ via arb with incentives for the 2027 season.
Agree – I had suggested the minor league contract as well. I’m wasn’t sure if he is set to miss all of 2026 or just part of it.
If all, then we have seen a lot of those 2 year contracts like some have suggested for a little cash for rehab in 26 and get a cheap year in 27 for a gamble.
The estimate I saw was an absolute minimum of 8 months recovery from the time of the surgery which was 2 months ago. So, he’d be back at the earliest end of February 2026. But that’s like the best case scenario and he’d then have to work his arm back into shape….short toss – long toss – mound – game – minors – majors. If he manages to play just 20 days in the majors (or on the big league IL) next year he’d be a 6 year + FA at the end of the year.
Agree he gets non-tendered. At that point, any team that wants to sign him to an MLB deal will wait until they can immediately transfer him to the 60 day IL to avoid clogging a roster spot.
I could see a pitching needy team doing exactly the 2 year w/ option plan you outlined in March.
The rule prescribes what the Dodgers have to offer in arbitration. That doesn’t mean the arbitrators have to award that. Since Gonsolin didn’t go to arbitration last off-season, the Dodgers would have to offer 80% of this year’s salary ($4.3 million). The risk of doing so is that if Gonsolin proposes a small raise (say $5.6 million), he’s likely to get that because the arbitrators have to choose the team’s number or the player’s number (not a number in between) and $5.6 million is closer to the right number (no raise at all) than the Dodgers number. Gonsolin will be non-tendered, unless he and the Dodgers agree on a multi-year deal, like the Guardians did with Bieber, just at a much lower AAV. No one is signing (or arbitrating) a one year deal at a salary north of the minimum with a player who won’t play that season.
Bronx – thanks for adding rule info and yes, I agree that the non-tender and work out is likely option if he is out for 2026 but, I’m not sold on they scenario if he can be available say, in June. I’d say only he and LAD know the medicals enough right now but, when we see the non tender (or not) I think that will be telling what they show.
Arb salaries can in fact go down…20% from the past year is max.
It doesn’t mean they automatically get that amount. The dodgers would be fools to give him 5.4 when he wont pitch the entire season,and was out all of 20204 for the previous surgery. They will non-tender him
Orioles
Non-tender Mountcastle (he’s about 1.2M cheaper than I was guessing, but not worth this either)
Non-tender Cano – he’s lost it. I bet he’s cheap enough the Orioles do it though.
Try to sign Bautista for a 2 year deal where Year 1 is cheap, buy out a year of arb – very likely won’t pitch in ’26
Tender the others
Could cut loose Castillo and Carlson to save 3M
Yeah, Carlson is worthless.
I can see them keeping Castillo for cheap bullpen option.
Carlson probably still in the mix for 4th OF (Cowser, Beavers, and General Soreness still ahead of him) despite the fact he has not shown he can hit on a sustained basis. He’s out if they pick up the rumored right handed power hitting OF type that General Soreness was supposed to be.
Going off of the fact they volunteered to pay Mateo alone $3.4M in 2025 for .177 and 6 errors in very limited action.
Touche
Mets fan here. I’d take Castillo back.
Mountcastle is a prime trade candidate, won’t get much but it’ll be better than nontendering him.
I agree, but I think that ship sailed in the winter of 2023-24. Now teams will wait out the Orioles. Other teams don’t want him at the arb salary either. Maybe a mid level prospect is the best you can hope for now, as much as his value has diminished.
This list makes me think middling relievers are paid too much and catchers are paid too little.
Didn’t realize Tyrone Taylor has another year of control. Cool
Nate Lowe a non-tender candidate
ang – Yep he sure ain’t worth $13.5M.
Lowe has two probable outcomes. 1) they sign a non-arb deal before decisions on the non-tender are due to carry him as a bench piece if not a starter depending on the rest of the offseason. 2) the more likely choice is non-tender him, i dont see him having a hot market. Then circle back to him if necessary.
He’s the same player as Triston Casas, so it could come down to whether Breslow can trade Casas early in the offseason. Breslow certainly didn’t sound like he was committed to Casas at the position, but I also can’t imagine he’d be non-tendered if his salary would be under $2 million as the article predicts.
GaSox – I think between KC, Romy, Casas they’ve got first base covered.
I still am hoping for Alonso though.
phillies – Defensively they are polar opposites (no pun intended).
Lowe has a great glove, Casas should burn his.
I’d take Alonso as my DH but that means trading yoshida which I know you’re not big on.
I wouldnt want Alonso to own a glove if he’s on a team i was running, put it in a glass box painted ‘break in case of emergency’
And you know my feelings on Casas LOL
The sweet autumn smell of non-tenders
How is JP Sears worth more than Mason Miller? I get he is a starter but he is really really bad.
JP’s been around longer and as a starter has pitched considerably more then Miller (558.2 IP vs. 160 IP)
He only gets 100 k more which is a reflection of his much less effective performance. If he was anywhere near Miller’s performance, he’d dwarf Millers offer, because starters always get more then relievers.
Thanks, that makes sense. I know the Padres will pick up his option because they need starters but I wish they wouldn’t. Batters thank their lucky stars when they see him on the rubber.
I dont think we keep Sears.
@Vegas I think they’ll keep him because they just acquired him and it’s not like you can go out and sign a legit SP in free agency for $3.5M.
$3.5M certainly feels like an overpay for him based on what we saw this year but they get an offseason to work with him and SP is an area of need that is expensive to acquire. ZIPS projects him for ~150 innings of 4.44 ERA, which seems optimistic based on his recent performance but if you can get something like that out of him this amount makes sense for a backend guy
One of the reasons that Forst said played into their willingness to trade Miller is that he had asked them to be used as a starter in 2026. Getting DeVries had to help too.
He is a year up on service class it looks like
Tanner Houck will miss 2026 with TJS, and then only have one year left before free agency. His 40-man spot over the offseason IMO would be better served by selecting a Rule 5 like Sandlin, Drohan, or Uberstine.
Hard to think George Kirby is projected at 5 million even though he’s been around for 4 seasons
That dude is going to win a Cy Young one of these years. Great pitcher.
wow. there are some players that are gonna be ‘non tendered’-not worth the projections.
go figure: Arozarena goes from $11+ to 18+
while Varsho (250ish ab’s/20hr/50ish rbi’s) goes from $8.2 to 9.7. D dosnt pay appparently
3.9 WAR is worth $18 million and 2.7 WAr is worth less
how would that apply to a 1st or 2nd year arb player? Neto- 5.1 war is not getting 18M.
so war is not the only metric to use to figure arb #s
Arozarena is a 4th time arb player. You also changed your post after I responded. Originally you didn’t mention Varsho. WAR is certainly one of the metrics used to determine arbitration raises.
Another one is how they compare historically to other players in the same arbitration class. They don’t compare 2nd time arb class to 4th time arb class. They compare past 4th to 4th to determine the percentage of the raise.
Another is how much they earned the previous season. Arozarena earned $11.3 million. Varsho $8.2 million
Varsho has a 2.8 WAR because he only played 71 games. That time missed to injury plays a huge role in how much of a raise he will get in arbitration.
outinleft-
I agree with you.
Its other comments that throw WAR out there as the reason for a certain players $ increase without mentioning other criteria.
I agree that defense doesn’t pay very well, but Varsho missed 91 games.
Yet Taylor ward hit 30 bombs with 100++ rbi’s and his is $13.7
Wonder who some of the bigger non tender candidates are going to be this winter
Lowe without a doubt
Jonathan India will probably be on that list too.
Tigers should tender everyone except Ibanez. They have lots of cheaper replacements for him.
I agree about Ibanez as the Tigers upper minor league is stocked with infield talent…..the only other player on that list that I think has a chance to be non tendered is Foley. Guess it depends on how the rehab of his shoulder is going.
By reading through the list, Ibañez and Foley came into my mind as non-tender candidates as well. It may also be less due to money rather than roster spots.
Gruß,
BSHH
I feel like the Mets will tender all of those players. Kranick, Megill, and Garrett will be injured but those salaries are peanuts. Same with Brazobán. That salary is too low to worry about his ups and downs. The savings on Stanek leaving covers most of all four of those guys put together.
I wonder if Doval will be a non-tender? Yikes, just after the Giants got a haul for him.
Nah. The Yankees have two years of control left on him.
Only $6M+. That’s not overly expensive for a good RP.
I just have this sinking feeling the Pirates are going to non-tender Colin Holderman and he’s going to figure it out with another team. I’ve seen him pitch. He still has great velocity and movement, just can’t execute and locate anymore. Really strange given he was solid with the Pirates up until the 2024 break.
mlb1225
On most teams they would keep him but not the Pirates. I expect Bart and Suwinski to be non tendered also. Anyone over a million can be easily replaced by Cherington/Nutting in their minds. Don’t care about winning.
If the number gets too high you will be traded like Bednar. They don’t even care about how little the return is, just want to get that salary off the books.
No reason to get rid of Bart yet. Suwinski is more likely than Bart to be nontendered, he’s out of options and has been awful for 2 seasons.
A 30 year old that they have little invested in (Vogel) coming off a bad year, yeah he’s probably a strong candidate for nontender.
And they absolutely should non tender holderman. Who cares if he figures it out somewhere else, he’s been bad for the past 2 seasons here. They have plenty of other young, higher upside arms that can get the innings and more than likely perform much better. “Just can’t execute and locate anymore” you said it yourself. That’s kind of a huge part of pitching if you didn’t know.
I am confused not difficult to do to an old man. I keep reading that Randy Arrozarena is a FA. Then there is this Arb eligible stuff. It confuses me. I also see that Seattle has started negotiations or whatever is legal to do now. There is common interest in him coming back on a multi year contract. How does this all work? If Arb eligible he would get less than what he could get for multi years. Sorry baseball contracts are some of the most convoluted confusing contracts in sports.
I know we signed Robles until ‘27. If he could start the year hot again but stay healthy and stay close to as he was at the beginning of this year he will be an even huger steal. Then we can bring Montez up to spell the guys in the OF and DH. If that happens either Canzone or Raley are out of a job. Not sure if they have options left or not. I would keep Raley and trade Canzone. He got a little hot and should have some decent trade value.
-compassrose-I took my meds today so take yours to see if it helps with the confusion, it does for me haha.
Arozarenas service time as of 01/2025 is 4.129. He will be a free agent after 6yrs of service time. Id like to know where you continue to read he is an impending FA after the 2025 season.
The Mariners can sign him to a contract extension that takes over arb years & any amount of FA yrs, like they did with Cal. If Cal didn’t sign before the season, he would be arb eligible but the M’s bought out 3yrs of arb plus 2 or 3 yrs of FA, if my math is right.
FO said they are interested in bringing back impending FA Naylor but want to wait for the season to conclude. If they are interested in buying out Arozarenas arb yrs and FA yrs Id think they’d wait for the season to end like with Naylor.
Montes has 282 PA in AA, there’s no way hes on the opening day roster in 26. I would keep Canzone (2 Options) over Raley (0 Options) hes younger, cheaper and doesn’t need to be platooned.
compassrose- Canzone is still pre arb. Raley will be in his 1st year. Raley could be moved-overloaded in OF. I would like to see Randy extended- good year in LF for Sea- best production in LF in a long time.
Arrozarena isn’t a FA until the 2026-27 offseason. Maybe he gets a QO after 2026, Montes could be ready by 2027 as a starter in LF.
OK thanks guys I am understanding this more now. The service time is what confused me but then I remembered holding players to give them another year for the team. Which was not fair to the player. Was great for fans since we got our player longer without having to worry about them not signing back. Which is a problem here in Seattle.
I got lazy and didn’t look up Canzones contract. I think I mentioned whoever had the most options left would stay. Or thought it but maybe didn’t write it.
Montes depending on his spring has a small chance to make the team out of ST. Would have to be a great ST. He is more than likely to be called up mid season. Seattle has called up players from AA skipping AAA altogether. I think it is to miss the long ball craziness of the league. I believe AS break is around the time to call him up. I have been wrong many times before and will be wrong again. Thanks for the reminder and help.
shouldnt Derek Hill from the White Sox be on the list?
What has Taylor Ward ever done to deserve almost $14 million in arbitration
He’s roughly a 2.75 bWAR player. That’s about the right price.
Yep. Decent hitter who’s not a great fielder. But 116 OPS+ and 2.7 bWAR will get him paid
Sosa at $3.9 million has outplayed Bohm at $10.3 million, and deserves an everyday job more than Bohm at this point. Castellanos will be a $20 million righthanded bench bat next season, so I’m not sure they need a $10.3 million one as well. I doubt Bohm gets non-tendered, but I bet he gets traded for a mid-level prospect.
Looks like Imanaga pitched his way out of having the club 3/57mil option picked up. He’ll have to decide whether to stay for 15mil rebound effort in ’26 or elect FA.
The Brewers Civale to White Sox for Vaughn trade is the gift that keeps on giving. It appears the White Sox sending him to triple A has docked his service time enough to add-on an additional year of control.
India received $7.05M this year. Even after a poor season, I think he is due for a bigger raise than that.
Why? He had another poor season.
0.4 bWAR and an 89 OPS+. He will be lucky to not get non-tendered.
WAR is not the main factor in projecting arb #.
Neto- 5.1 war= $4.1 arb. vs
Arozarna: 3.9war = $18.2
Neto is in arb1 and Arozarena is in arb3. Arbiters have their own formulas to help make decisions.
Looks like the Phillies will do a 9 for 9 with the players listed. Am good with that.
Brewers missing Monasterio & Perkins.
Even if Monasterio picked up a full season (which he didn’t since he began the year on optional assignment), he’d be below their currently projected Super 2 cutoff. Same thing with Perkins, he’s below their currently projected cutoff. Neither of them are arb eligible this winter if that cutoff stays where they think it will.
What is MLBTRs projection for the Super 2 cutoff? Perkins I believe gained a full year of service time and therefore ended at 2.133 which is definitely a possibility he qualifies for Super 2.
2.136- they have 40 players listed at or above that figure.
Thank you! I was actually genuinely curious cause I didn’t know if I missed something in the article
You guys are EDIT were missing Brandon Williamson though, he has 2.139 – so he’d meet your cutoff. He meets the requirements for Super 2 status as he spent more than 1/2 the season on an MLB roster or IL.
Does anyone have an idea as to who some non-tender candidates would be for the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Tigers, and Rays?
Looking at the Giants predictions and I can’t see why Ryan Walker would get more money than Patrick Bailey. They have exactly the same amount of service time, and Bailey is a GG catcher while Walker has been a part-time (and recently ineffective) closer.
He’s an obvious non-tender candidate anyway, but what prevents Tyler Zuber of the Marlins from being arb eligible? Seems to me that he easily has enough service time to be a Super Two player.