As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the ninth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2020. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player. The Super Two cutoff has been confirmed as 2.115. For players’ actual arbitration salaries, check out our tracker here.
Angels (9)
- Tommy La Stella (5.057) – $2.9MM
- Cam Bedrosian (4.153) – $2.8MM
- Andrew Heaney (4.150) – $5.0MM
- Hansel Robles (4.119) – $4.0MM
- Dylan Bundy (4.026) – $5.7MM
- Max Stassi (3.049) – $800K
- Brian Goodwin (3.019) – $2.1MM
- Keynan Middleton (2.150) – $800K
- Noe Ramirez (2.139) – $1.0MM
Astros (8)
- George Springer (5.166) – $21.4MM
- Brad Peacock (5.165) – $4.6MM
- Lance McCullers Jr. (4.140) – $4.1MM
- Carlos Correa (4.119) – $7.4MM
- Roberto Osuna (4.097) – $10.2MM
- Chris Devenski (4.000) – $2.0MM
- Joe Biagini (3.134) – $1.5MM
- Aledmys Diaz (3.100) – $2.4MM
Athletics (8)
- Liam Hendriks (5.164) – $5.5MM
- T.J. McFarland (5.164) – $2.1MM
- Marcus Semien (5.118) – $13.5MM
- Robbie Grossman (5.060) – $3.3MM
- Mark Canha (4.092) – $4.9MM
- Sean Manaea (3.157) – $3.5MM
- Chris Bassitt (3.130) – $2.8MM
- Chad Pinder (3.047) – $1.8MM
Blue Jays (4)
- Matt Shoemaker (5.166) – $3.8MM
- Ken Giles (5.113) – $8.4MM
- Anthony Bass (5.010) – $1.7MM
- Brandon Drury (3.165) – $2.5MM
Braves (7)
- Shane Greene (5.075) – $6.5MM
- Mike Foltynewicz (4.134) – $7.5MM
- Adam Duvall (3.151) – $3.8MM
- Dansby Swanson (3.047) – $3.3MM
- Luke Jackson (3.019) – $1.9MM
- Grant Dayton (3.007) – $800K
- Johan Camargo (2.137) – $1.6MM
Brewers (6)
- Corey Knebel (4.151) – $5.125MM
- Omar Narvaez (3.089) – $2.9MM
- Orlando Arcia (3.047) – $2.7MM
- Ben Gamel (3.029) – $1.6MM
- Brent Suter (2.161) – $900K
- Josh Hader (2.115) – $4.6MM
Cardinals (1)
- John Gant (3.004) – $1.4MM
Cubs (7)
- Kris Bryant (4.171) – $18.5MM
- Javier Baez (4.089) – $9.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber (4.086) – $8.0MM
- Willson Contreras (3.108) – $4.5MM
- Albert Almora (3.073) – $1.8MM
- Jharel Cotton (2.158) – $800K
- Kyle Ryan (2.139) – $1.1MM
Diamondbacks (7)
- David Peralta (5.120) – $8.8MM
- Nick Ahmed (5.054) – $7.0MM
- Jake Lamb (5.053) – $5.0MM
- Andrew Chafin (5.020) -$3.2MM
- Robbie Ray (5.007) – $10.8MM
- Archie Bradley (4.112) – $3.6MM
- Matt Andriese (4.071) – $1.4MM
Dodgers (12)
- Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
- Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
- Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
- Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
- Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
- Austin Barnes (3.098) – $1.3MM
- Scott Alexander (3.097) – $1.0MM
- Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
- Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
- Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM
Giants (3)
- Donovan Solano (4.081) – $1.2MM
- Alex Dickerson (3.120) – $1.2MM
- Wandy Peralta (2.168) – $800K
Indians (5)
- Sandy Leon (5.144) – $2.8MM
- Francisco Lindor (4.113) – $16.7MM
- Nick Wittgren (3.071) – $1.3MM
- Mike Clevinger (3.041) – $4.5MM
- Tyler Naquin (3.033) – $1.8MM
Mariners (3)
- Mallex Smith (3.125) – $2.7MM
- Sam Tuivailala (3.082) – $900K
- Mitch Haniger (3.048) – $3.0MM
Marlins (4)
- Jonathan Villar (5.113) -$10.4MM
- Jose Urena (4.040) – $4.0MM
- Adam Conley (3.147) – $1.6MM
- Jesus Aguilar (3.082) – $2.5MM
Mets (9)
- Marcus Stroman (5.148) – $11.8MM
- Jake Marisnick (5.132) – $3.0MM
- Noah Syndergaard (4.149) – $9.9MM
- Steven Matz (4.099) – $5.3MM
- Michael Conforto (4.043) – $9.2MM
- Edwin Diaz (3.121) – $7.0MM
- Seth Lugo (3.082) – $1.9MM
- Brandon Nimmo (3.042) – $1.7MM
- Robert Gsellman (3.042) – $1.2MM
Nationals (6)
- Hunter Strickland (4.163) – $1.9MM
- Michael A. Taylor (4.129) – $3.25MM
- Roenis Elias (4.069) – $1.9MM
- Joe Ross (4.018) – $1.4MM
- Trea Turner (3.135) – $7.5MM
- Wilmer Difo (3.016) – $1.2MM
Orioles (5)
- Mychal Givens (4.069) – $3.2MM
- Hanser Alberto (3.085) – $1.9MM
- Miguel Castro (3.079) – $1.2MM
- Richard Bleier (3.074) – $1.1MM
- Trey Mancini (3.015) – $5.7MM
Padres (10)
- Jurickson Profar (5.165) – $5.8MM
- Kirby Yates (5.021) – $6.5MM
- Greg Garcia (4.083) – $1.7MM
- Zach Davies (4.020) – $5.0MM
- Austin Hedges (3.166) – $2.9MM
- Luis Perdomo (3.086) – $1.0MM
- Matt Strahm (3.064) – $1.5MM
- Manuel Margot (3.012) – $2.1MM
- Hunter Renfroe (2.165) – $3.4MM
- Dinelson Lamet (2.130) – $1.7MM
Phillies (7)
- J.T. Realmuto (5.038) – $10.3MM
- Jose Alvarez (5.035) – $3.0MM
- Vince Velasquez (4.086) – $3.9MM
- Hector Neris (4.068) – $4.7MM
- Adam Morgan (4.017) – $1.6MM
- Zach Eflin (3.018) – $3.0MM
- Andrew Knapp (3.000) – $800K
Pirates (9)
- Keone Kela (5.000) – $3.4MM
- Michael Feliz (3.169) – $1.2MM
- Jameson Taillon (3.110) – $2.3MM
- Chad Kuhl (3.079) – $1.4MM
- Adam Frazier (3.075) – $3.2MM
- Joe Musgrove (3.063) – $3.4MM
- Josh Bell (3.053) – $5.9MM
- Trevor Williams (3.027)- $3.0MM
- Erik Gonzalez (3.007) – $800K
Rangers (6)
- Danny Santana (4.140) – $3.9MM
- Delino Deshields (4.109) – $2.4MM
- Nomar Mazara (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Rafael Montero (3.138) – $900K
- Nick Goody (3.105) – $1.1MM
- Joey Gallo (3.103) – $4.0MM
Rays (6)
- Mike Zunino (5.165) – $4.9MM
- Tommy Pham (4.107) – $8.6MM
- Chaz Roe (4.094) – $2.2MM
- Oliver Drake (3.045) – $1.1MM
- Tyler Glasnow (2.158) – $1.9MM
- Daniel Robertson (2.134) – $1.1MM
Red Sox (7)
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150) – $11MM
- Mookie Betts (5.070) – $27.7MM
- Brandon Workman (5.051) – $3.4MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (4.130) – $9.5MM
- Matt Barnes (4.110) – $3.0MM
- Heath Hembree (4.106) – $1.6MM
- Andrew Benintendi (3.062) – $4.9MM
Reds (6)
- Trevor Bauer (5.158) – $18.6MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (5.062) – $5.2MM
- Michael Lorenzen (4.159) – $4.2MM
- Curt Casali (3.151) – $1.7MM
- Travis Jankowski (3.148) – $1.2MM
- Matt Bowman (3.021) – $900K
Rockies (7)
- Scott Oberg (4.063) – $2.0MM
- Jon Gray (4.062) – $5.6MM
- Trevor Story (4.000) – $11.5MM
- Tony Wolters (3.161) – $2.0MM
- Carlos Estevez (3.022) – $1.2MM
- David Dahl (2.162) – $3.0MM
- Kyle Freeland (2.144) – $2.4MM
Royals (2)
- Jorge Soler (4.143) – $11.2MM
- Mike Montgomery (4.089) – $2.9MM
Tigers (5)
- Daniel Norris (4.073) – $2.9MM
- Michael Fulmer (3.157) – $2.8MM
- Matthew Boyd (3.136) – $6.4MM
- Buck Farmer (3.083) – $1.1MM
- JaCoby Jones (2.125) – $1.4MM
Twins (9)
- Ehire Adrianza (5.131) – $1.9MM
- Trevor May (5.012) – $2.1MM
- Eddie Rosario (4.120) – $8.9MM
- Miguel Sano (4.066) – $5.9MM
- Byron Buxton (3.160) – $2.9MM
- Taylor Rogers (3.145) – $3.9MM
- Tyler Duffey (3.074) – $1.1MM
- Jose Berrios (3.044) – $5.4MM
- Matt Wisler (3.042) – $1.0MM
White Sox (5)
- Alex Colome (5.118) – $10.3MM
- James McCann (5.028) – $4.9MM
- Leury Garcia (5.025) – $4.0MM
- Carlos Rodon (4.168) – $4.5MM
- Evan Marshall (3.090) – $1.3MM
Yankees (9)
- James Paxton (5.151) – $12.9MM
- Tommy Kahnle (4.131) – $3.0MM
- Gary Sanchez (3.086) – $5.6MM
- Aaron Judge (3.051) – $6.4MM
- Chad Green (3.050) – $1.4MM
- Jordan Montgomery (2.153) – $1.2MM
- Luis Cessa (2.131) – $1.1MM
- Gio Urshela (2.127) – $2.2MM
- Jonathan Holder (2.124) – $800K
way too much for cuthbert & jacob barnes. Both of those players could be outrighted off the 40 man because the royals need to free space to re-instate three players that are on the 60 day injury list. They also need to make room for any players that need protected from the rule five draft. I have no objection to the projected Mike Montgomery amount.
Glad this has your approval
I don’t think you understand what’s going on here. It’s their projected model. They aren’t speculating on non tender candidates. They input players numbers and prior salary and the model spits out a projected salary for this year.
I do understand & I personally don’t think that cuthbert is going to receive any money in arbitration because the royals may need his roster spot to reinstate someone from the 60 day.
Cuthbert will get non-tendered:
i think you’re right.
Aren’t Rob Refsnyder and Blake Swihart eligible for arbitration?…..or is that execution?…..
Both of them are currently free agents
Refsnyder is definitely not since he didn’t accumulate any MLB service time in 2019. Not sure on Swihart, but did he even finish the season on a 40-man roster? If not, he also wouldn’t be eligible
I checked the minor league transactions page the other day, it says Swihart elected free agency at the end of last month along with a bunch of other guys. And Baseball Reference says Refsnyder became a free agent august 26.
No way Owings, Gorkys, or Wright get tendered. On the fence about Leon and Hembree, and $11M for JBJ seems way too high. Assuming the Sox drop the first three, they’d be left with a little under $10 Million to work with, dropping all six would leave them with almost $25 Million. This is gonna be interesting.
11 mil for a 2 WAR player is not crazy. Id be shocked if the Red Sox dropped him
It’d be shocking, but considering how much emphasis there’s been on cutting payroll it wouldn’t be out of nowhere.
JBJ is marketable even at that price if they choose to go that route. ERod shows while relievers are making more and can make good money, a top of the rotation starter will still make a killing. He’s always had potential but due to injuries mainly never lived up to his potential. Good for him but he’s still a risk with that knee.
Kenny Williams always gets his man! Even if it’s usually a few years late.
If I’m not mistaken, the surgery ERod had 2y ago was to fix the continual kneecap dislocation issue he has had during his professional career and he hasn’t had one since.
3 million for Chris Owings is way too much. He was terrible with The Royals & was not worth what they paid him!
The Red Sox will non tender Owings, Wright, Hernandez G, and probably Leon. They may also non tender Hembree but I doubt it. There is no way they non tender JBJ. The only way they get under the lux tax is if they trade Mookie or JDM opts out. If JDM opts out they will still be very close and still may not be able to get under unless they don’t add anyone except from within the 40 man.
I think Garcia is non-tendered and you could make an argument for Heaney to be non-tendered too.
Part of the reason the Angels are always short of pitchers is Heaney is always hurt. I think a Kyle Gibson type could come in and at least throw 160ish slightly below average innings and actually be dependable for similar money.
There is no way Heaney gets non-tendered at $5 mil, and there is no way you’re finding a “dependable starter” for $5 mil on the market.
There’s a glut of mediocre pitching on the market. Some innings eaters guys will get $5 million or less per year
I think keeping Heaney is a pretty easy call. Not great, always hurt, but worth the $5m gamble that he’s able to combine being effective and healthy.
Garcia/Bour/Tropeano are goners. Some possibly on Smith and Stassi depending on what we do at C. I lean towards keeping both
Stassi will be out for most of spring training after having hip surgery
Yep. Still think they keep him if he recovers fully. An elite framer/defender for under $1m is good value
Heaney made 30 starts in 2018
Non-tender Tropeano? You bet? Garcia? In a heartbeat.
Heaney? Nope. At bare minimum, you sign him and then work a trade, since numerous teams would love to get LH SP with Heaney’s upside for $5M.
But you don’t trade him, either. Not over a $5M salary. 2019 was the “off” year to be expected post-TJ surgery. I expect a very good 2020 from him.
If the White Sox agree too give Yolmer Sanchez 6.2 million they will be the laughingstock of baseball oh wait a minute they already are!
The Orioles say hi
The tigers worst the worst team in baseball with a worse farm system than Baltimore at last check.
Who does Chris Davis play for again???
Tigers have a lot of high quality pitching prospects coming. The offense will be their issue. I could see Detroit being solid in three years hard to see that with Baltimore.
Technically Chris Davis plays, but…..
Isn’t he due for a performance bonus? A few years back I had a long argument with one of Baltimore’s bloggers that Davis was only preforming because of the prescription he was taking. (that was and then wasn’t approved by MLB) Adderall
What? Sanchez is an elite defender that has been worth 5 fWAR the last 3 seasons.. While they can let him go, retaining him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. He has value as a backup.
Sanchez will be cut loose if he doesn’t accept around $4M.
Yolmer is currently making $4.62M. I don’t see the case for a raise right now. BRef has his 2019 season at 2.1WAR down from 2.6 in 2018.
Villar is a useful baseball player, but I don’t think he’s worth $10M to the Orioles. I don’t exactly see him as a non-tender candidate, but it’s just more incentive to move him this offseason for another “change of scenery” or “what if he got 500 ABs” kind of guy.
he is worth way more than that. o’s should trade him and get more prospects.
No way the Phillies can, will, or should pay Hernandez and Franco that amount of money.
Phils have stuck around with Hernandez for this long, so they will probably keep him. 11 mil isnt really that much of reach given the money they have and how much an equivalent replacement will cost. Doubt they give Kingery the job outright after he hit .243 from June on.
No way A’s pay Profar or Treinen that much money. They can do a lot more with $14 million saved.
Yeah. Like extend Marcus
Many players getting solid raises but two stand out that are grossly underpaid.. Javy Baez and JT Realmuto!
Excellent point, especially in these days of whining about salaries. There’s about 10 players I’d give a long term contract to, and Baez and JT are two of them.
whining? as if you’d work for pennies!
If those pennies added up to millions of dollars,i would
in about 100 years getting meals at soup kitchens.
Is 1.3 Million enough for Bird to cover all his doctor bills?
But wait, won’t Greg Bird be the main piece by Yankee fans in a trade for a TOR pitcher?
Yeah I assume they will non-tender him and he’ll try to catch on somewhere else…but where?
Bird and Ellsbury make me long for the days of Carl Pavano’s durability.
Don’t forget don’t forget your good friend Mr. Kevin Brown
I like Yolmer, but he is gone from the White Sox.
Leury may be gone too, if they decide to stick with Goins, and someone for RF.
At that price for Yolmer, I agree that he’s not going to be on the team next year. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bring him back on a multi-year deal with a cheaper AAV. Seems like a White Sox kind of move.
I don’t see them letting Leury go at that price. He can play anywhere on the field except C (probably could figure it out), and they don’t have a better option with that kind of versatility.
Leury and Yolmer would make fine backups. Leury has the versatility and Yolmer is an elite defender at a couple of positions. The White Sox are not going to choose Goins over Leury. as he barely played the final month of the season. I could see Yolmer going though.. Mendick might stick as a backup and Madrigal and Robert will be manning 2B and CF at some point in 2020.
So many thoughts
1) That is an insane amount of money for Trevor Bauer! Wow…. I figured he’d jump to $16.5M or maybe $17.1M but a raise of $5.6M with his ERA!?
2) Seems like if Betts’ arbitration salary could reach $30M, and he hasn’t hit FA yet and no FA has earned more than $35M in a single season thus far (do we count Nationals players with their $10M per year deferred off the major deals, since Strasburg’s 2019 salary is officially $39M or so?) then the system is a bit broken. I know guys can earn a lot their last years of arbitration and then go to a stagnant market, but if he’s gonna make nearly $30M he might try to ask for $35M and balk at $30M a season but who’d be crazy enough to pay him that much? Who needs him that badly? Maybe Texas? Maybe the Angels? Do the Padres try again?
So my question is this: What will Betts be worth?
3) At first I thought ‘wow, those Yankees arbitration numbers are low!’ but it occurs to me all of their players have extensive injury histories leading to limited playing time, limiting their value to the team, limiting their arbitration salaries.
I think they all go year to year. If they signed extensions now, the players would be at a disadvantage at the negotiating table and the Yankees could strongly argue for cheaper overall deals. Not saying all the Yankees players want to make $30M a season, but if you’re the richest team in baseball and you win championships and it’s standard to pay championship level players $20-30M a season for 5-10 years a pop, I don’t see how the Yankees just go year to year with all these guys- what, do they hope their farm system reloads every 5-8 seasons so they can stay relatively low budget except for occasional pitching, etc.? I know, I know, they traded for Stanton not that long ago, but baseball mentalities change seasonally and what made sense about Stanton when they traded for him might not make sense anymore except that he’s got an untradeable contract he will not be opting out of. It looks like they’ve let their other expensive guys run their course and talked so many people into cheaper or shorter term deals…Then again they also seem to pay their guys in the final year of arbitration…I realize none of them have been Mookie Betts or anything thus far, but they’re clearly some of the best players in the league also if they go year to year and get modest arbitration salaries, they have a better chance to earn more if they prove to stay healthy an entire season…
Like, if they signed extensions now, with their patterns, I imagine it’d look like:
Judge: 3 years/$31M ($6.5M, $10.5M, $14M)
Sanchez 3 years/$27M ($5.5M, $8.5M, $13M)
Urshela, I could see them trying to sign him to a team friendly extension: 3 years/$15.5M ($2.5, $5.5, $7.5)
BUT if they went year to year and everybody actually stayed healthy, played the entire season or only missed games to be rested and assuming nobody’s playing ability craters…
Judge: 3 years/$38M ($6.5M, $13M, $18.5M)
Sanchez: 3 years/$35.5M ($5.5M, $12.5M, $17.5M)
Urshela: 3 years/$21M ($2.2, $6.8, $10M w/ $1M buyout on $15M option)
I love guessing at these contracts and even I’m not comfortable giving any of the Baby Bombers a very long term deal *except* for Gleyber Torres…. Who I am weirdly worried feels like the type of player to not try as hard if his money is secured. Like I have an urge to suggest they go ahead and lock him up to a 13 year/$350M deal but I also haven’t seen the Yankees stick with a guy who panned out at that level since, what…. ever? Have the Yankees ever had players like Torres, Judge or Sanchez, even with their history of great HOF level players in those positions?
It used to be a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would throw money at everything and everything. Now it feels like they really try to make deals, they stick to a budget, they only make actual rare exceptions…. Do they really try to sign Torres, Sanchez, Judge, etc. to long term deals? They can’t get those guys for $10M AAV like they did with Hicks and Severino. It just isn’t gonna happen…. right?
The Yankees went a long time going year-to-year with players still under team control. They broke with that this year with Severino and Hicks, and both guys were hurt all year.
I don’t know if that will impact their decision on long-term contracts for guys like Torres, Judge, or Sanchez, but it could, especially since there are multiple years of team control remaining.
I do not share your concern about Torres’ work habits.
Urshela is the most likely guy to sign an extension, I think, since he’s the guy who can be signed on the (relative) cheap.
I don’t know why I felt that way about Torres. I’m sure I am wrong. It’s probably PTSD from previous stud power hitting prospects that looked amazing and never panned out or fizzled due to injury and/or poor conditioning. I recognize Torres may be a generational talent that doesn’t compare to guys like Jesus Montero, Tyler Austin, Greg Bird, etc.
I know, they’ve only ever broken it for certain players and they typically do try to sign them to team friendly deals. Cano’s deal was a steal for the team, to the point it affected their negotiations with him when he hit FA. Gardner was heading into FA when he signed his extension, right? And it was probably below market. Now that I think about it, they’re actually pretty judicious with their extensions, they only do them in special cases and they spend most of their money in FA and unfortunately, the vast majority of their homegrown talent from the last, oh…. 20 years….have not panned out in their system or at all. Phil Hughes was allowed to walk, for good reason and was over paid his final Yankee season.
They do have a habit of quickly re-signing good second half trades to mid-market extensions that rarely work out… Chase Headley 4 years/$52M to be a virtual non-factor. J.A. Happ $17M AAV and if he stays healthy and isn’t traded, could really be a 3 year/$51M deal, which isn’t small change and he won’t have really been worth that level of pay…. picking up Bobby Abreu’s $15M option….Obviously they traded for Encarnacion and make the decision on that $20M option/$5M buyout.
I keep thinking about Cashman’s comment a while back regarding FA last year, something to the effect of: We’ve got a lot of guys of our own to take care of in a few years.
Who is the last guy the Yankees extended or signed long term that truly worked out? As far as I can remember, Cano was the last long term successful position player and Chapman has been their best overall FA signing since the Winter of 2008 when they signed Sabathia, Burnett, Jaret Wright (!!!), and Teixeira… I know they’ve traded for massive contracts-
I also know they signed Hicks and Severino to cautionary deals for both sides. The players give up potential larger paydays for the guarantee, which, given their years, turned out to possibly be the best decision either could have made for themselves. I’m sure they were also talked into being loyal to the Yankees, giving a hometown discount because being a Yankee is part of the pay, which, if they go ahead and win a ton of championships with this group, was a justified statement, but again, I don’t think they can justify that stance to Judge or Sanchez or Torres, guys who, if they went through arbitration, looked out purely for themselves, stayed pretty healthy and made it to FA know they’re all looking at insane fortunes and the Yankees wouldn’t really have any ground to stand on if they’re arguing to keep the team together by staying affordable when everybody else PAYS their super stars….seems like the biggest issue overall is a team surrounding All Star calibre players with enough equal talent to get them to the post season and support their individual stellar performance. Nationals finally put it together this season after dropping Harper and adding even more pitching, while Harper had a typical season for himself and was on a basically slightly better than .500 club, ironically, for that sweepstakes.
Anyway unlike most other over priced clubs or clubs with one or two high priced players, the Yankees have the financial means to pay everybody, basically, and everybody whom they’d pay have the ability to take them to the post season and beyond every season for the next half decade…
I guess in the end I think they should give out Dodgers style contracts. Short term 3-5 year deals for most guys with modest AAV’s and low pay in the beginning but A-List annual salaries toward the end of the deals. Like Justin Turner’s deal.
I don’t know why I’d be more comfortable with the team locked up, because I recognize the Yankees can pay everybody seasonally and still compete and it’ll be fine. Shrug.
I don’t think that will effect the Yankees’ decision to sign long-term extensions for young controllable players. Guys like Sevy and Hicks are young enough to have trade value even if they hadn’t played all year.
Yep, enjoy Frankie for one more year.
Tribe will most likely trade him after….or during?
Why is there such a large variance between Judge and Bellinger?
Looking at career PA, H, HR, .BA, R, RBI.
AJ – 1718, 387, 110, .273, 290, 246
CB – 1841, 443, 111, .278, 292, 288
Do first year arbitration players get their career looked at? Or their most recent season? Or both? With a focus on most recent year (CB better 2019 than AJ)
5.4 war vs. 9.0?
Can play multiple position also comes into play. Also i would suspect averaging 155 games a year over the last 3 years vs 125 with the last 2 years being just barely over 100 probably factors in as well.
These salaries are getting redic for some of these players. When the qo is less than a player gets in arb. You’re not supposed to make the money in arb you get it after.
we’ve known the QO to be broken since the Keuchel and Kimbrel debacle started. everything about it does not work.
except allowing small market team owners get richer.
So which was better… the old system of a/b list FAs that automatically require top pick forfeiture…..
Or the QO where less FAs are affected, and, can only be saddled once, with a chance to choose a 1yr contract instead?
signing FAs should never lose you a pick id say. discouraging teams from signing free agents at all is silly.
Garcia, Bour and Tropeano will probably be non tenured. Or at least should be.
Tropeano’s not making nearly enough to be non-tendered. if he can get healthy he will be worth it easily, and the Halos certianly need all the help they can get at SP.
Disagree on Tropeano. Why pay $1m for someone who’s neither healthy nor good. He’s really shown nothing to suggest he can contribute at the top level
He did before he underwent Tommy John
You don’t pay for promise shown in 2016…
Tropeano is out of minor league options. Is always hurt.
I just can’t see the Reds paying that much for Trevor Bauer with his meh career stats (except for one season) and the other baggage that comes along with having him.
they will, but why no one thought last year could have been a fluke i do not know. his 2019 numbers are fairly similar to his 2012-2017 ones.
In what world is Addison Russell due a $5.1M salary?
Replying on a couple Cubs:
*Addy Russell Received a modest 390K raise on his first trip through arb negotiations due to his marital problems seems totally right and accurate. How he is going to get a 1.7MM raise in a season where he only played 82 games with a .237 BA, .699 OPS and 0.1 War is beyond me. I would imagine if the Cubs can’t negotiate less than 4MM prior to the tender deadline. he will be shopped and then non-tendered if no taker is found.
*Javy Baez going from $5.2MM in his 2nd trip through arb to $9.3MM in his third trip is a very healthy amount! He is in no danger of anything based on his upside, relative youth and magic tricks in the field and in the box. BUT ~ This sure isn’t the inexpensive Cubbies of 2016 when everything players like Baez did was a gift based on their league minimum contracts.
Kyle Schwarber: $3.39 agreed upon in his first trip through arbitration and projected to go all the to $8MM for the upcoming campaign? More than double? I totally understand arbitration is a very outdated machine that rewards health and production, but this sure seems like a prohibitive number. I don’t mind all players getting rewarded, especially Cubs. But the way Theo Epstein is operating after firing maddon, I now fear when a player starts to make money, they could be gone too.
Other thoughts:
Heaney at 5MM is a no brainer! You will not get 150+ innings for less(provided he stays healthy).
Betts is going to make the Red Sox sacrifice a lot of possible additions this season and lose him anyway. See Bryce Harper for most recent example of holding on to a player and not receiving any compensation and him walking, leaving you high and dry.
the same one where he made 3.4 MIL this year and arb figures go up each year. I could say maybe not to 5.1, but the difference between that figure and what he actually makes will probably be less than the league minimum.
Almora, Happ, and Russell seem like guys that simply won’t be on the team next season. All for separate reasons..
Almora~ Time to cash in that chip since he seemed to not get the playing time he was expected to get, and he is an amazing defender. Maybe that is partially Maddon’s fault for not trusting him, but better to cash him in as the upside is still there due to him not playing daily as was expected by last season. The allure of him reaching his potential somewhere else might still be in the offing.
Happ~ Having not signed his tender sheet due to the fact that he thought he was worth way more than the offer, and then not even making the team out of spring training and spending the great majority of his season down on the farm should be enough for Theo to shop him before he gets an even bigger head. I can see Theo shedding his minor arb number and years of control for something more useful for a team trying to get over two disappointing seasons.
Russell probably won’t bring much in a trade due to the fact that Theo has no leverage with a guy who has not ever hit consistently and has been suspended and most of his press coverage has come in a negative light. My thinking is, there could be a lot more useful ways to utilize $5mm.
Along the same lines ~ I imagine moving Heyward and his 4 years and $96MM while eating his deferred $20MM signing bonus(2024-2027)would be more to the liking of Theo, while trying to retain Castellanos and using a portion of that money to get a more offensive CF. Chatwood fits this narrative as well…….
Only way they move Heyward is to flip for another bad contract. Nobody is just gonna take him and his money. He isn’t Encarnacion or Greinke.
I doubt Almora is much a chip.
I agree that Heyward is not easy to move, that is why I said I am sure “it is more to Theo’s liking” to move him. The only difference between this offseason and all others, for the purpose of moving Heyward is the fact that every year up until now, he has had full no trade rights. This year he has limited no trade rights, he has to choose the teams on his no trade list for the first time. No, I am not saying it will be easy at all, personally I don’t think it is even possible without a major offing of cash and a prospect heading out with Heyward for a team to even consider taking him on. But, for the first time as a Cub, Theo will be able to shop Heyward without getting his approval if he even got close on a trade. If by some miraculous turn of events Theo finds a taker for Heyward that is not listed on his blocked list, Heyward’s contract is moved without Theo ever having to sit down and ask him for his approval, which still won’t likely happen, but as a Cub fan, I had to dream, and I see the dreams continue(lol).
This is so far off. Do you even do comparable contacts. Embarrassing to even put on this website.. joke
We are all waiting with bated breath for mrgreenjeans’ arbitration predictions.
Embarrassing for Mlb trade rumors to put this out
The only embarrassment I see are your two repetitive comments.
Really interested to see what Jorge Soler does in the models versus the actual hearings. He’s going to opt in as an arb2 player even though it’s his first time. 48 home runs off a $4.5m platform salary.
I think there’s a good chance the Royals extend him and make it moot, but very intriguing contract situation.
We need to add that projection. Should have it soon.
Does today’s performance effect Foltynewicz arbitration value?
It’s safe to assume that Addison Russell and Yolmer Sanchez will be non-tendered by their respective Chicago teams before the December 2nd deadline. Russell has become a non-productive distraction on the Northside while Sanchez will lose his starting job to top 2B prospect Nick Madrigal in 2020.
I can see the White Sox re-signing Sanchez for something considerably less than his projected $6.2MM arbitration salary to become a utility infielder next season but Russell has certainly worn out his welcome with the Cubs.
18.6 million for a pitcher with a 4.48 era and a 4 plus era for his career. Hopefully the Reds flip him this winter. They won’t get a lot with that salary attached to him.
Oh please. FO just brought Driveline on board. Give me an angry, focused Bauer with something to prove working with his kind of analytical approach. He’s not going anywhere and he’s going to kill it.
I’m keeping an eye on Cincinnati this off season. Not sure how much Driveline has to do with Bauer, as they’ve admitted to work this year primarily in the minors. I do like Bauer’s leadership, but the Reds competing in 2020 is expecting too much.
Bauer stated he is only interested in signing one-year contracts for the rest of his career. I think they should trade him and try and get a prospect and use the money for a player they can get for a longer term. White Sox could be a good match.
Peralta, Lamb and Gas Can Bradley for $17,000,000 combined. 2 words. See ya
I think BOS takes 2020 to retool. I can see them letting Martinez walk (if he opts out) and trading both Betts (possibly LAD) and Bradley (maybe Mets, Rangers). Wouldn’t be surprised if they really went crazy and fielded interest in Sale or Bogaerts. Rebuild the farm and reinvest the funds when ready to be legit contenders again.
JD Martinez opt out date has come and went he did not opt out, he does have another opt out next year
Re Tigers, Hardy, Stump, and Hicks elected free agency and don’t belong on this list, do they?
They all stink