The expectation is that this summer’s trade market will be largely devoid of quality starting pitchers, but last-place Tampa Bay could change that. The Rays, who are 33-47 and 10 games out of a Wild Card position, are discussing putting some of their young starters on the block well in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). One member of the group unlikely to go anywhere is underachieving right-hander Chris Archer, whose team-friendly contract might be too difficult for the Rays to part with, per Rosenthal.
With Archer probably staying in a Rays uniform and top prospect Blake Snell seemingly a poor bet to go anywhere, that leaves Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore as rotation members Tampa Bay could shop. Each is likely attainable if the right offer comes along, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported Saturday afternoon.
Odorizzi, who has backed up a respectable ERA (3.91) with solid strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (8.59 and 2.96, respectively) across 94 1/3 frames this year, has already drawn interest from the Marlins. In 468 2/3 big league innings dating back to 2012, Odorizzi has held his own – 3.80 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 10 percent infield fly rate – though his 34.5 percent grounder rate (39.2 percent this year) is well below average. The 26-year-old right-hander is playing this season on an ultra-cheap $520,700 salary and has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Smyly, 27, has run up a sky-high strikeout rate for the second straight year (10.09), improved his walk rate from 2.7 to 2.24, and continued generating a large amount of infield pop-ups (13.5 percent). Nonetheless, the southpaw’s run prevention has taken a significant hit. Through his first 96 1/3 innings this season, Smyly has recorded a 5.33 ERA – which is more than two runs worse than the excellent 3.11 mark he put in 66 2/3 frames last year.
Notably, Smyly missed a large portion of 2015 with a torn labrum and opted against season-ending surgery in favor of rehabilitation through rest, which proved successful then. However, research done for MLBTR during the offseason by Bradley Woodrum and Tim Dierkes showed that Smyly remains at relatively high risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery. That could hurt his value, then, even though he logged a 3.45 ERA, 8.51 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 55 starts with the Tigers and Rays from 2012-15 and is on a palatable salary ($3.75MM) with two more arbitration trips on the docket.
Moore has mimicked Smyly in having trouble preventing runs (4.67 ERA ) despite amassing strikeouts (8.61 per nine) and limiting walks (2.62), though he’s coming off a terrific June in which he threw 38 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball. The former top prospect was an eminently useful starter from 2012-13 before injury issues – including April 2014 Tommy John surgery – kept him sidelined for the vast majority of the previous two campaigns. Moore, who’s making $5MM this year, has three affordable club options of $7MM, $9MM and $10MM left on his deal before he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Rangers are reportedly among the teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.
Given the youth and team control Odorizzi, Smyly and Moore offer, their presences on the block could hugely impact the trade deadline. Several playoff contenders (other than the aforementioned Marlins and Rangers) are likely to be on the hunt for starters, which should put each member of the trio in demand.
one of the three starters mentioned (Moore, smily or ordorizzi) to texas for Ryan Cordell (of) and Ronald Guzman (1st baseman) both having good years in AA
Those two guys probably wouldn’t fetch Smily or Odorizzi and would most likely be too much for Moore.
give me a trade proposal from the rangers side….
Dillon Tate would be a pretty fair return for Odorizzi
Or not…
Even though I don’t think those pitchers are pitching really well now there is no one else really on the market pitching wise. And with so many teams looking for starting pitching I think the return is going to make a lot of people go, whoa! Not Shelby Miller whoa but still I think the Rays could get a significant return
Wait the same Tate who totally faded as the draft came close and the one who is struggling in the minors. Let’s be honest Tate has upside but he’s at A struggling. League wise ok but he’s not ok as an advance college pitcher.
Don’t be surprised if Tate or Ortiz is the Rays target for any one of them. All are under team control through 2019.
I don’t think the pitching market is going to be as barren as all of the writers would have us believe. There is already speculation that these 3 will be available as well as likely candidates such as Hill, Santiago, Hellickson, Santana, Cashner, and Liriano. As well as a few that could be had for the right price like Gray, Pomeranz, and Ross (if he comes back in time). Plus, teams like the Yankees could trade pitchers like Eovaldi and Pineda. High end arms are going to be few and far between though. We have been spoiled with trades of Lester, Price, Samardzija, Hamels, and Cueto the last couple of deadlines. This year I think only a few mid rotation and back end starters get moved.
The Brewers could look to trade a SP, but the problem is that they don’t have any top of the rotation type players that a lot of contending teams would seek. A guy like Jimmy Nelson could potentially fit on some teams though. But I don’t think it’s super likely to assume that would be viable either.
For a ML starting pitcher? LoL
I think it’d be best for the Rays if Odorizzi and Smyly could pitch well enough to where they’re prime, desirable trade chips. They don’t come with any cost certainty with them, something crucial to the Rays
I know some teams don’t like divisional trades but the O’s should look to acquire one of the lefties. Their pitching has been terrible and they need help immediately
And trade what? Baltimore has almost no trade bait
They have more than what people are aware of
So what do you suggest as the return then?
Anything would have to include Mancini and Cisco, and then some. The O’s have a few pieces, they just need to be prepared to use all of them in order to secure a worthwhile pitching upgrade.
Like???
I’m sorry, but no team has more than people are aware of. Every roster tied to that team can be examined on the internet by any person willing to do due diligence.
I’m NOT saying the Orioles have no pieces in their organization that would be of interest to others, but I’m only saying that the comment you made makes no sense. I will also say that because of the lack of depth in the orioles system they likely won’t be able to make big name splashes for quality pieces. They do have a few good pieces however that might land them a mid-quality type upgrade. The real question is do the O’s feel it is worth giving up those few pieces?
Depending on who they go after would most likely include a package with Mancini, Walker, possibly Mountcastle and Cisco depending on the return. Other names could be Miranda, Reyes, and Maybe even Bundy, just since it looks like he is starting to turn into a solid bullpen piece that’s getting closer to starting.
Lol Dillon Tate for any of those pitchers is unlikely.
I don’t think so at all. Who else are you going to get that’s out there? Teheran will cost much more and there are a lot of teams that need starting pitching which will only build the asking price. And they are under contract for several more years. No reason for the Rays to trade them for insignificant pieces. Better off just holding on to them if that is the case
Teams don’t go looking for starting pitching at the deadline because they’re thinking of what might happen in the 2021 World Series. There aren’t going to be a lot of quality ML starting pitchers coming available and Texas won’t be the only contender trolling for what’s there. Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto from the AL East alone will be out there.
The Rangers won’t get one of those 3 guys for cheap. They’re all under team control for 3 more seasons so its not a 2 month rental.
Tate or Ortiz at a minimum for any one of the three plus another lower level chip for Moore who has more ML experience and very team friendly contract (no risk of big arbitration bucks). Be more realistic and thinking that a kid at AA is more important to a team trying to win a World Series this year than a ML starting pitcher.
I can see the rangers getting Andrew Miller, but that might cost them Brinson or Gallo, I guess the cubs asked on him and they said they want Schwarber in return.
that is the first response that has made any sense…I love how everyone seems to overvalue their team’s prospects for 3yrs of some very decent arms…Smyly is a red flag, though. I think his drop in production may be tied to a potential injury – he’s missing a lot of fb up and not getting on top of his pitches.