Dodgers lefty Brett Anderson is set to undergo surgery today on a bulging disk in his back, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports (Twitter links). Anderson is expected to miss three to five months.
The news comes as a major blow to a Dodgers organization that has rolled the dice on several starters with injury questions. Anderson accepted the team’s $15.8MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason, returning on a one-year deal after his first healthy season in recent memory.
This won’t be Anderson’s first procedure for a bulging disk, as he underwent a similar surgery late in 2014. He’s missed time with other maladies before and since, of course, but his back health will now be an even greater question than it had been previously.
While there’s still hope that Anderson will contribute to the staff this year, that doesn’t mean the loss won’t tell. Fellow lefty Hyun-jin Ryu is still working back from shoulder surgery and has experienced some soreness. Brandon McCarthy remains a ways off from returning from a Tommy John procedure. Even the team’s newest MLB additions — Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir — are pitchers who have long-term health questions. Likewise, righty Frankie Montas, who profiled as a young rotation possibility as the season progresses, will miss time with rib surgery. (All that after the team blew up a prospective deal with Hisashi Iwakuma over the results of his physical.)
All that being said, it isn’t as if the club is hurting for options. Alex Wood now looks like a good bet to open in the rotation, where he’s had plenty of past success (despite coming with his own questions given his unusual delivery). Mike Bolsinger and Carlos Frias had their moments last year. The oft-injured Brandon Beachy is back on a minor league deal. Just-signed Cuban free agent Yaisel Sierra could potentially factor in, as could a variety of rising prospects including Jharel Cotton, Chris Anderson, Zach Lee, and top prospects Jose De Leon and Julio Urias.
Anderson, who only just turned 28, turned in 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball last year, more than justifying the risk taken by Los Angeles. Indeed, he was even better than his results by measure of xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46). But he hadn’t even logged 100 frames in a single season for the four preceding years, leading to questions about how his market would develop and aiding his decision to accept the QO.
The talented southpaw will, hopefully, have an opportunity to re-establish his health at some point later in the 2016 season. He could well provide a significant boost at that point, as might McCarthy, and it’s entirely possible that the Dodgers will have plenty of options down the stretch. As things stand, though, he’ll have to battle through another tough medical setback. Needless to say, both his future earning outlook and the possibility of the team benefiting from making a second consecutive QO have taken a hit.
Punch card is full, so atleast this one should be free.
Man and people were blasting me when I said Anderson was too much of an injury risk to count on.
Should have kept greinke
So their OD rotation looks like kershaw, kazmir, wood, Maeda and Beachy.
Granted kershaw is the best pitcher in MLB but that’s a lot of 3-4 guys after him
DeLeon could be called up
or urias – I figure we’ll see him sometime this year with the number of middle/back rotation starters
Great idea. Throw the teenager into the deep end and find out if he can swim.
Jose De Leon isn’t all that young—a late bloomer who has worked himself into better shape than he’s ever been. and is now considered a top prospect.. He’s a 23 yr. old arm who has said his goal is to make the 25 man roster. He could help this year.
And Urias: maybe he gets a 50+ innings in before the season ends. But that arm is considered so valuable, it’s doubtful that he’ll be somebody that the Dodgers turn to. Friedman was cautious with his young pitchers in Tampa and brought them along slowly; there’s no reason to believe that he won’t do the same with Urias.
Why do you think that he brought in so many guys with previous medical issues? He’s gambling that he’ll have enough depth to put off calling up a talent like Urias until next season.
I am aware of De Leon, his history and status. He is probably next in line after Beachy and Bolsinger, and ahead of Urias. But if we do see him (let alone, Urias) it’s because the rotation has become a calamity, again. No real bright side to that, contrary to what some are saying. In reality, few pitchers can make significant contributions in their first season(s) in the majors. Most of them need a lot of preparation to get there, and a bunch of adjustment after they arrive.
Just curious why Beachy > Bolsinger? I’d even ask why Wood or Maeda over Bolsinger too. Bolsinger seems to be getting overlooked, he seems very similar to Mike Fiers not much velocity but still manages to miss bats both seem very underrated.
Because Bolsinger has very obviously the lowest ceiling of that group?
Based on?
Beachy is the better pitcher on paper, but he still has a lot to prove after his two awful starts last season.
What is Beachy’s ceiling exactly a 3rd TJ surgery?
Yeah, Beachy is cooked.
Based on stuff and scouting reports.
Bolsinger posted a 3.62 ERA (3.91 FIP; 3.82 xFIP) in 21 starts last year, with 8.1 K/9. Sure he doesn’t throw hard, but he can still get strikeouts and he keeps the ball on the ground. Beachy isn’t even close to being a sure thing after two TJS.
According to ZIPs, that’s a 7 win player, 3 win player, 3 win player, 3.5 win player, 2.5 win player, and replacement level 5th starter.
Here comes the Jakes Odorizzi trade.
Or Sonny Gray trade
Doubtful…doesn’t somebody have to throw innings in Oakland?
Ha, an Angels fan wants Sonny Gray out of his teams div, yeahhhhnothappening
Odorizzi on the other hand….
Imagine the package gray would bring back for the A’s , deleon and others.
Lol no , Gray is a great pitcher one of my favorites but he’s pitching on somewhat of a rebuild team, he deserves to be on a contender.
or Julio Teheran…LAD trying to resurrect the Braves 2014 starting rotation with Beachy, Wood aboard. Need Medlen, Minor from KC.
If the A’s are rebuilding then why did they sign or trade for Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Chris Coghlan, Ryan Madson, Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski, Liam Hendriks, John Alford, Rich Hill and Henderson Alvarez? Those are all MLB everyday regular guys, known quantities. Rebuilding teams don’t do that. The A’s are not rebuilding. I’d say the Angels are closer to rebuilding than Oakland, but sadly they can’t commit to that because of Trout.
Oakland has prospects in Meisner, Manaea, Chalmers, Overton and Alcantara who might not as highly-touted as De Leon, but are not that far away from him. De Leon’s a 55 prospect, but all those guys are 50. They would need a game-changing blue chip top 5 prospect for Gray, and that would be just to start, because Gray’s still making minimum wage.
The only Gray trade that makes sense from Oaklands view would be Soler, Schwarber, Kendrick and Baez for Gray and Reddick. The A’s are definitely not rebuilding, so they need ready-now guys not prospects if Gray was going to be moved. Not saying he won’t be, but the package they’d have to get offered would have to be massive, like the one I mentioned.
Because Billy Beane is an idiot.
On the radio in SF yesterday, Forst said the A’s have the best overall team they have put on the field in several years and expect to contend. Doesn’t sound like a team that would be trading Gray.
Who is Kendrick? For someone who proposes that trade on a daily basis, you think you’d learn the name of the players you’re trying to steal.
Never wise to underestimate Oaklands potential…more than once they’ve put unpredictable teams on the field and clicked.
Well Said !!!
Oh they lit me up when I said the same thing. I wish we still had the old commenting system so I can find that chain of comments lol
And the first domino falls…
Dodgers are a joke. Glad Donnie got out of there. $15.8 million for Anderson was a disgrace even before his injury. Looks like all that sabermetric garbage is really working out for them. Lol
Incredible how you connected sabermetrics with injuries. Absolutely stunning. First class trolling by southpaw2153 right here, folks.
I was speaking about sabermetrics being a failure to the Dodgers organization in general. Proof of their lack of success in mathematically fielding a quality rotation with a nearly $300 million payroll by rolling the QO dice on a sub-standard pitcher such as Anderson.
I’m sorry if you couldn’t deduce that. Guess you need things spelled out for you. I’ll keep that in mind for any future posts. You’re welcome.
You’re calling them failures before the season even starts? Troll much?
I know you’re an angry, sorry soul, but trolling won’t do anything but make give you a 10-second dopamine rush, and then you’ll dislike yourself for far longer than that. Be better than that. I believe in you.
Hey southpaw2153 – the Dodgers were 2nd in the MLB in starter WAR last year (18.0) and 2nd in xFIP (3.25).
Before you complain more about sabermetrics – here’s an old school stat for you – 2nd in ERA (3.24). The rotation wasn’t an issue – and with the fantastic depth they have built this year, it likely won’t be again.
But don’t let facts get in the way of a good argument, right?
Mathematically, you’ve fallen short.
And before you say “oh but they don’t have Greinke anymore”, I implore you to look at the arms they have available, and the arms that are one step closer to the show. This farm hasn’t been so stocked in..well, I can barely remember. But again, their turnaround from the ground up is counter-productive to your trolling.
Also, I’m glad Donnie got out of there too. Maybe now we might have a Manager.
Anderson out until after the All-Star break at the earliest and more likely all season and Ryu already being shut down before he even pitches. If Ryu can’t come back, and it’s looking likely that he can’t, the Dodgers are stuck with an Ace in Kershaw and a bunch of back of the rotation starters. That doesn’t bode well for a championship season. With an unlimited checkbook and a deep farm system they could trade for another starter, but from Friedman’s comments that doesn’t seem likely either. With several more fragile arms on the pitching staff, the Dodgers are one or two more inevitable injuries away from meeting the dismal over-under Vegas has set for them.
Why is it looking “likely” that Ryu can’t come back?
You seriously think Greinke is going to be replaced by Kazmir and/or Maeda? Keep dreaming. Only time will tell but, I say Dodgers finish 3rd or 4th in their division. All the prima donnas in that clubhouse are going to chew up and spit out Roberts. Maybe Zaidi or one of the other 5 former GMs can go manage with their calculus books and abacuses. Lol.
Dan, what are you, the mlbtr post police? You don’t like my opinion so I’m a troll? Riiiggghhttt.
I can tell in the short time I’ve been on this site that if you’re not a believer in sabermetrics, which I’m not, then you’re attacked. Buncha fantasy league nerds that think talking in mathlete makes them baseball savvy. Bring it on.
Southpaw123 is this conversation’s equivalent of the Trump campaign.
Sabermetrics are not something you can believe in. It’s the application of stat analysis to evaluate players/performances.
Next you will tell us evolution has a basis in science.
Yours is the only post that speaks the truth about LA starters. Their poor quality depth makes them unfit for playoff success. With all that money at their disposal this is the best they could do?
Did you say the same thing about KC starters?
It’s typically Kershaw that gets lit up in the playoffs
Did he have to take a physical to sign the qualifying offer? Not saying he was hurt prior to it, but maybe.. lol
Only two days ago the LA Times ran a long piece on how Dodgers’ trainers worked with Anderson on the core strength issues that led to his first back surgery. Anderson was talking about the huge difference these workouts made in how he felt and pitched last year. So to believe what you suggest, requires the assumption that the Dodgers and their trainers were unaware of his history and were not training him appropriately. Neither of which are true, of course.
orrrrrr…..he’s made of actual glass.
It could take one false move covering first to cause a disc bulge…people with disc issues tend to have reoccurring “new” issues…like jenga.
Not kidding myself into thinking that anyone will actually read it, but this is what both the team and the player were saying just two days ago.
latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-brett-and…
Read your link. I wonder how much of that article was in the can for spring training filler?
As much as his core might not be strong…no matter what he does…he’ll have ongoing back issues. This isn’t something that’s correctable…maybe treatable between bouts. But his body can’t take the strain of pitching without facing that inevitability. At this point it’s about getting what value is there when it’s there.
I feel for him. I suffered the same condition from age 14 on and played well into my 20s…I’ve had multiple serious surgeries and the pain is a constant.
I don’t know about it being canned reporting but for certain it tells us the Dodgers were aware of his back issues, were training him accordingly, and both the player and the team felt he’d the corrections required, as evidenced by his performance last season. No pain was reported. The point being, the comments we are seeing here now about the how the Dodgers “should have known this was going to happen,” are based on basically no information, a lot less than someone would have by simply reading this article.
Well, the Dodgers could have been anticipating the likelihood. This type of chronic injury csn come from nowhere. Discs deteriorate and basically chain react. He could have been fine one second and herniated the disc in an instant. Take how well he,typically does when healthy and then ask why he had to take a qo? It’s chronic…and always will be. He’ll be back…but he’s not someone that can be counted in.
I’m sure they anticipated at least the possibility of somebody going down early and Ryu not being ready on opening day.. Beachy was their insurance policy. But the last thing anyone wants to do is try to collect on their insurance policy.
This is the first time I ever saw a player claim he would have a great season in spring training.
Maybe the Angels could build a trade around CJ Wilson for Andre Eithier. Of course cash would probably be in the deal as well.
With the dodgers taking on both contract, so it can help the angels out. But what if cj wilson is healthy has a great spring, and weaver does not
The Dodgers aren’t going to eat both their contracts just to help out the Angels unless they get more back. In a straight swap, I could see the Dodgers agreeing to take on Wilson’s contract and eating, at most, half of Ethier’s remaining contract while the Angels are responsible for the other half. The money is too much on Ethier’s side to justify eating all of his contract and Wilson’s without getting back additional compensation.
If they do that , prolly still puts the angels over the luxury tax
Maybe not for this year, its not like the Angels are getting $50-$60 million slapped onto their cap this year for taking on Ethier. The Angels could propose something like they take Ethier’s cap hit this year and the Dodgers take Wilson’s (which is a few million dollars spared by the Angels I think). After that, the Dodgers and Angels would have to work out some payment plan for Ethier. Angels could take on the whole thing but they would need additional compensation, Dodgers could take on the whole thing but they would also need additional compensation. So probably the ideal way, for both sides, is that the Dodgers eat half of the remaining contract and the Angels eat the other half with maybe some additional minor pieces being swapped.
Coming up next, alien abductions.
Sierra with that 6.10 ERA in Cuba, don’t think he’s an option any time soon.
bet he wishes he didn’t “bet on himself” and take the QO this offseason.
Why? He gets $15M to sit at home this year.
Okay fine but you know as well as I do that his plan was to rebuild value towards a multiyear deal next year. Now he’d be lucky to offered a minor league contract in 2017.
Like the $10M “minor league deal” he took from the Dodgers last year after he hadn’t cracked 50 innings in 3 years?
Anderson is injury-prone. But he’s repeatedly proven that he’s a quality starter when healthy. Teams will continue to hedge bets (for decent sums of money) on him being healthy. Especially if he comes back in August/September and rattles off 40-ish innings of sub-3 ERA pitching.
The only injury to which he is arguably prone is the back issue, which is the only one that has recurred. A couple of the others were flukey, to say the least. Chronic issues are a much more significant deal than a random injury here or there. Even if he returns and pitches well for a couple of months (a big if) he’s still going to have the chronic back issue cloud over his head, if only because the Dodgers thought they’d addressed it.
It’s always going to hang over him, but again, you’re talking about a guy who’s still under 30, who’s a lefty, and who’s proven capable of throwing above-league average innings. Somebody’s still going to take a flier on that, and they’re going to pay pretty well to do so.
It depends, just not a lot. If he misses most of this season the back issue will be a huge red flag, and it will still be pretty big warning sign even if he manages to pitch for a couple of months. Not only is his back problem now apparently chronic, it seems whatever the Dodgers did with him in training last year wasn’t enough to prevent the recurrence. Why would some other team think they could change that outcome?
Well if he didn’t take the QO, there’s a possibility he still could have been a free agent right now. There’s also a possibility he would have gotten a multi-year deal. It’s something we don’t know, but like BlueSkyLA said, it was at the time smart of him to take so he can rebuild his value
Unfortunately this injury comes to no surprise, at least to me. Anderson has thrown a grand total of 499 innings the past Six seasons.
Yeah, I said in November that he was best exploring the market for a multi-year deal. I thought he was coming off of a healthy year, and should’ve parlayed that into the largest guarantee possible, but, like you said, it’s possible that his market could’ve been killed. But personally, I would’ve turned it down
Not many teams would have likely given a long term deal of any value to a player with chronic back issues. That’s a chronic issue.
I know. I was thinking something along the lines of 2 for 25-28, something near what Estrada got. He and his representatives looked though and decided that he probably couldn’t get that I guess. I’m not questioning the decision to accept the QO, just saying that’s what I would’ve expected
He’s made $30M+ in his career, and he’s owed almost $16M this year. I think he’ll survive missing out on a “multi-year deal.”
Regardless, he probably lands $8-$10M on a 1-year deal next year, and if he’s healthy, he gets paid again the following season.
All told, he’ll come away with $24-$26M for 2016-17, compared to Gallardo securing 3/$33M from B-more.
I’d bet money that Brett Anderson’s year-to-year-with-injuries situation out-earns Gallardo’s 3-year guarantee.
I didn’t mean to imply that he won’t “survive” the one-year deal, but I’d be surprised if he gets 8-10 million next year, especially if he doesn’t pitch this year
He’s 28 this year. He’s lefty. And he’s capable of throwing above-league-average innings.
On a one-year commitment, there will be suitors for that. The more there are, the higher the price tag climbs.
Possible. I know Rich Hill got 6 million because he’s left-handed and had 4 great starts, but I could see Anderson’s market falling if he misses all year. If he comes back after the All-Star break and pitches at his career norms, he’ll have no problem reaching those numbers, but I’m not ready to bank on Anderson getting and staying healthy at this point
This makes it official: Anderson takes the reigns from Rich Harden as the #1 the “Most Glass-Made player in MLB, 2000-onward era”.
RIP sweet prince, your twitter is still funny.
Not sure if he has passed Carl Pavano yet. But, it is close.
Depends on how many years you go by
4 year span:
Carl Pavano from 2005-2008 (with the Yankees) – 145.2 innings
Anderson from 2011-2014 – 206.2 innings
However, if we make it a 6 year span
Pavano – 2005-2010 – 566 innings
Anderson – 2010-2015 – 499 innings
We’re Ben sheets and josh Johnson nominated for this prestigious award too?
Here’s the breakdown, career earnings at end…..
Sheets: between 151-237 IP 6 times, 6 seasons of less than 141 IP, $52.2M
Pavano: between 199-222 IP 5 times, 9 seasons of less than 136 IP, $71.5M
Johnson: between 157-209 IP 4 times, 8 seasons of less than 87 IP, $50.5M
Harden: between 141-189 3 times, 6 seasons of less than 128 IP, $23.6M
Anderson: between 175-180 2 times, 6 seasons of less than 112 IP, $46.3M
that didn’t take long, was it hurt in camp? we need starters and need to deal from the minors. I want to win now. trade puig for pitching because he is a headcase and waste of talent
Because Puig would bring back so much at this point. It’s not going to happen at this point. There will be options if they need them at the deadline. The guys you want aren’t available they just won’t be. Grey won’t be Fernandez won’t be. They’ll be held onto until winter. At this point Anderson isn’t so much a loss. Kersh, Kaz, Maeda, Wood, and Ryu (when ready just have to be solid). We might see Cotton and DeLeon later in the spring.
Andre Eithier and cash for CJ Wilson?
That could work but Eppler will say we like our pitching depth and not trading it
I’d be surprised if the Dodgers do that. I think the Dodgers plan on keeping Ethier. Pederson, Thompson, and Puig are question marks, Crawford shouldn’t be counted on for anything, and Van Slyke is just an average player. I think they’d be better suited holding on to Ethier rather than trading for a guy who would have a hard time holding a rotation spot once Ryu comes back
Angels need an outfielder , Dodgers could use another pitcher. Ryu could have a set back.
Yeah they could use a pitcher, but taking on both contracts for a marginal SP doesn’t make sense to me. It’s possible, but I think the Dodgers could just deal a lower prospect from their loaded farm system for a cheaper back-of-the-rotation guy
Tyson Ross and/or Andrew Cashner on their way up the freeway in part 2 of the LA=SD trade express? Shields makes sense too for LAD.
Tyson Ross for Urias and who else, because any trade for Ross is going to start with whomever is the top prospect in that system. 3 or 4 for 1 trade. So who are the other 2-3 prospects the Dodgers would be sending the Padres way after Urias?
The Dodgers won’t be moving Urias straight up for Tyson Ross.. They didn’t move him when they had rotation issues before, why would they do it now when they have the most depth they’ve ever had?
This isn’t Dave Stewart.
El-oh-el.
I see the cubs making a package for tyson ross at the trade deadline
Because of the kids. They called me Mr. Glass.
It’s a sad state of affairs when people think Anderson is a quality pitcher. I guess being able to breathe combined with throwing left handed is considered quality these days. He is a #5 or #4 starter on his best day, and that’s if he can toe the rubber. His career #s are unimpressive. Yay for mediocrity.
I’d like to think the rotation would be
Kershaw
Ryu
Kazmir
Maeda
Wood
Maybe when McCarthy comes back they go with a 6 man rotation unless someone gets hurt and that does seem to always happen and if it doesn’t then maybe when everyone is healthy they use one of them as trade bait for a reliever. Just my guess at what would it should happen. I like that rotation I listed way better than the ones I see people posting
Because ryu is out til june no one is including him.
All I can say is “thank God the the Depth”
While I am not a Ddgers fan and I understand they have plenty of money to absorb this kinda loss MLB really needs to make some changes when it comes to long DL stints like this. Players that make millions to sit on the bench for 5 months is a kick in the face to the ones who work every day and earn way less in some cases. What they should do and I know it wont ever happen is a player should only be paid half of what they make while on the DL. This way the team can utilize the other half to find a replacement. With how players are being paid of late most teams will not be able to absorb a loss like this when pitchers are making 30 plus million a year now. If a small market teams looses 2 pitchers that are being paid 16 million a year or a position player making 20 million a year how do they find the funds to bring another player on board? It is not like a guy making 16 million a year is gonna have life changing problems if they only get to make 8 million while sitting on the bench for the year after TJ surgery. Player should be forced to take out insurance policies to cover this loss for them and not the teams. Now for people to tell me how this will never work for what ever reason LOL
I completely agree with you, Mark. Seems ludicrous to keep paying injured players their full salary. Used to be done via insurance. Does anyone know if insurance is still a thing for these amounts? I read that they no longer insure the highest paid. What about the 10 million bucks per year guys?
If you didn’t have to pay injured players their full salary, you 1. wouldn’t get previously injured players on short term deals, and 2. not get them at a discounted price.
Teams factor the possibility of injury into the contract that they offer. If you disagree with a specific decision, that’s one thing, but that’s the teams fault.
For the big contracts a lot of teams take insurance policy out on these guys. Don’t feel to bad for teams. They end up getting a portion of money back on deals.
Quite right, teams insure against these losses, so it the contract won’t be total dead weight. The real story is the vacancy in the rotation.
The news today if anyone is still interested is that the team rated Anderson’s chances of a recurring back issue at 10%. They took the gamble and it came up snake eyes.
What the hell?!? Spring training has barely started and we lose a starter already? Imagine that, it’s Anderson. You Know, for an elite athlete and only 28, this guy sure does get hurt way too much. He was getting hurt at 25. Why do teams keep investing in these guys? Worse, in today’s market, they get annual raises. Please don’t be a horribly long season…
Do you have to write a full article each time for him, or can you just change the dates, and length of time like an ad-lib fill-in-the-blanks story?
Did I just dream Kazmir getting traded to the Braves in the salary dump deal?