DEC. 17:Ā Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that Cueto doesn’t receive a no-trade clause but will pick up a $500K bonus if he’s moved to another team (links to Twitter). Baggarly adds that the seventh-year option is for $22MM and comes with a $5MM buyout. Additionally, he notes, Cueto still gets the $5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal after the 2017 season.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hasĀ the contract’s entire breakdown (Twitter link). Cueto receives a $5MM signing bonus and a $15MM salary in 2016. He’ll then be paid $21MM annually from 2017-21. Heyman also notes that the option buyout will be given to Cueto in the form of a bonus, should he opt out of his deal,Ā therebyĀ giving him a guarantee of $46MM over the first two years of the deal and, effectively, a four-year, $84MM player option.
DEC. 16: The Giants have officially announced the deal.
DEC. 14:, 3:37pm: The GiantsĀ have made their second significant rotation splash of the offseason, announcing on Monday that they’ve agreed to a six-year contract with right-hander Johnny Cueto, pending a physical. The Bryce Dixon client will reportedly receive a $130MM guarantee and an opt-out clause after two seasons. The contract is said to pay Cueto $46MM prior to the opt-out and also contains a club option for a seventh season, should Cueto elect not to opt out.
With this new contract, Cueto will have the ability to hit the free-agent market again in advance of his age-32 season. As we saw with Zack Greinke this winter, that timing can be highly beneficial to a pitcher. Cueto would have to forfeit a guaranteed $84MM over a four-year term in order to exercise that out clause. While that’sĀ a notable sum, it’s certainly not difficult to see him having a case for more if he pitches up to his previous standards across the first two seasons of the deal.
Cueto, who turns 30 in February, split the 2015 season between the Reds (with whom he had spent his entire career) and Royals, working to a 3.44 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are down, by his standards — the result of some late struggles with the Royals that saw Cueto log a 6.49 ERA over his final 51 1/3 regular-season innings in Kansas City. While health wasn’t said to be an issue for Cueto, he did miss a start with a minor elbow issue earlier in the summer, though the Royals still felt comfortable trading three prospects — left-handers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed — for him, and Cueto was brilliant for his first three starts in Royal Blue.
It’s not certain what the cause for Cueto’s troubles in Kansas City were, though some issues with the placement of catcher Salvador Perez’s target and the adjustment to the American League were oft-cited suggestions for his diminished results. Cueto was inconsistent in the playoffs but hurled a pair of utterly dominant gems (in addition to a pair of shakier outings), capping off his 2015 season and his brief Royals career with a one-run, complete-game masterpiece against the Mets in Game Two of the World Series. The pair of excellent postseason outings likely quelled some of the concerns over Cueto’s health, and this contract, plus his reported $120MM offer from Arizona, indicate that some clubs haven’t been overly scared by his elbow.
Cueto will join fellow offseason signee Jeff Samardzija in slotting behind ace Madison Bumgarner atop a new-look Giants rotation. They’ll be joined by right-handers Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, with 2015 rookie Chris Heston presumably serving as a valuable swingman — taking over the role formerly held by the non-tendered Yusmeiro Petit.
The $130MM guarantee and $21.7MM annual value are a steep price, to be sure, but a healthy Cueto has proven to be worthy of that type of commitment when at his best. From 2011-15, Cueto worked to a 2.71 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 despite pitching his home games at one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly environments: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. In that time, the lone pitcher to throw at least 800 MLB innings and post a better ERA than Cueto’s mark of 2.71 was Dodgers ace and new division rival Clayton Kershaw. One can imagine, then, that moving from GABP to the extremely pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco, would stand to benefit Cueto’s already impressive numbers. (Of course, one could’ve made the same argument about the spacious Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, although Cueto moved to a new league in that scenario.)
From a payroll perspective, the Giants already have about $130MM committed to 12 players, plus a sizable raise coming for first baseman Brandon Belt, who MLBTR projects to earn $6.2MM next season. As such, Cueto’s new deal willĀ push the club’s payroll commitment to around $153MM before factoring in Belt’s new contract. That’s a sizable sum and is within striking distance of last year’s $173MM Opening Day mark. However, San Francisco will see Peavy, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Sergio RomoĀ andĀ Javier Lopez all come off the books following the 2016 campaign, so there’s plenty of long-term flexibility to accommodate a sizable yearly salary for Cueto.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the Giants were making a big push for Cueto. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the two sides had reached an agreement (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the term (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the guarantee (Twitter link). Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the club had confirmed the deal, adding details on the opt-out and club option (links to Twitter).Ā Heyman tweetedĀ that Cueto would get $46MM prior to the opt-out.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NO WAYYYYYY that’s sucks for LA
NL West has added Iwakuma, Miller, Samardzija, and Cueto this offseason, not to mention still having Bumgarner, Kershaw, and Greinke. My poor Padres are going to get no-hit 5+ times this year.
No we still hv ross and cash who both can be electric for at least just one game. Remeber cash with the 1 hitter vs pitt? So i think we will get our first no no this year
Everything does these days, so why should today be any exception?
The sky is not falling for the Dodgers; Jose De Leon is very close to the major league rotation and has the look of a front of the rotation starter. The Diamondbacks or Giants do not have that caliber of a pitcher ready to step in from the minor leagues, so they paid for one from free agency. The Dodgers happen to have two of them.
The big plus for the Giants is that Cueto performed well in the playoffs. He is a 2 plus starter for the Giants.
He was questionable in the playoffs.
You can’t even fathom “questionable in the playoffs” if you can’t get there. I’m not so sure Cueto is the right answer. Giants will look at this contract in two years and notice it’s worse than the one they gave to Barry Zito.
Nothing’s worse than Zito’s contract and his 85mph fastball! Lol!
Nothing is worse than Zito’s contract and his 85mph fastball! Heck, Cueto farts faster than 85mph!!!
lol, nothing could be worse than Barry Zito. What did Cueto do to make you think this? He’s a literal ace of any staff.
He threw a CG in the World Series, cut it out with “questionable” thats just wrong. Bumgarners 2014 was the exception, not the rule. He wasn’t all that good in his small stint in the AL in the regular season but last I checked the Giants aren’t in the AL.
You need to look at more than just one start in the playoffs against a Mets offense that was obviously vulnerable.
His post-all-star break numbers were poor (4.76 ERA in 13 starts). Two of the other three playoff starts were bad (6 IP 4R, 2 IP 8R).
Plus the constant excuses of Perez not giving him a bad target were preposterous. I can’t wait to hear what the excuses will be this year. I think the best thing about this signing is that it keeps him in the NL for the next 6 years so he’s not further exposed to the AL.
De Leon has’t pitched an inning above double-A yet, so you might want keep that pencil sharpened. Gaping holes in the rotation with nobody to fill them, yet they passed on Cueto, Prince, Grienke and Miller. Face it, the Whiz Kids decided to throw this season into the dumpster in the service of making more profit for the Dodgers. Please don’t ask me to like it.
The same “fans” who crucify teams for not signing exorbitant contracts, are the same ‘fans’ who will crucify them 4 years down the line when thosee enormous contracts start looking horrible on the books.,
I am a red sox fan i think i know how it feels to hate big contracts i hate that they signed pablo never liked him hanley i can deal with but thank god you dodgers took crawford he was awful
Nobody, not even Greinke, is going to replace that 1.66 ERA. Iwakuma is great when healthy (which is significant, I know). The move to NL will only help his numbers. Urias should be on the way, even though expectations should still always be tempered with rookies and the like. A full season of Seager SHOULD be better than Rollins last year. Puig SHOULD be better this season. Maybe Joc can find some middle ground in his play last season. I’m guessing they’ll get a different bullpen baller since Chapman fell through.
And I know you don’t care AT ALL, but it makes it easier for neutral parties to cheer for LA when they aren’t the Other Evil Empire. It’s a breath of fresh air for the rest of the nation. I may even buy a hat so I can finally channel my inner Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez on the softball field.
Uuuggghhhh!!!!. Why does the name of former Mariners’ #2 pitcher and current Dodgers’ #2 pitcher require approval. What part of that name am I missing that is bad?
Nobody, not even Greinke, is going to replace that 1.66 ERA. HISASHI is great when healthy (which is significant, I know). The move to NL will only help his numbers. Urias should be on the way, even though expectations should still always be tempered with rookies and the like. A full season of Seager SHOULD be better than Rollins last year. Puig SHOULD be better this season. Maybe Joc can find some middle ground in his play last season. Iām guessing theyāll get a different bullpen baller since Chapman fell through.
And I know you donāt care AT ALL, but it makes it easier for neutral parties to cheer for LA when they arenāt the Other Evil Empire. Itās a breath of fresh air for the rest of the nation. I may even buy a hat so I can finally channel my inner Benny āThe Jetā Rodriguez on the softball field.
Take that moderator
Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez… the only Dodger I’ve ever liked.
Him and Jim Eisenreich.
We must be resetting his HOF eligibility clock every time we watch The Sandlot. I figure he’s a unanimous first ballot HOFer.
Benny was recently arrested in real life! Maybe he’s been hanging around with Puig! Bad influence! Haha!
Oh, so you think that saves you the trouble of dealing with facts?
Why dont you like Iwakuma? He’s really good and going from AL to the NL usually works out pretty well for a lot of players. Ryu is really good too. Wood and Anderson both have really high ceilings they can still hit as well.
Kershaw-Iwakuma-Ryu-Wood-Anderson/McCarthy
Bumgarner-Cueto-Samardjia-Peavy-Heston/Cain
Greinke-Miller-Corbin-Ray-Bradley/De La Rosa/Anderson
I still the Dodgers look like the best team of the three, especially if healthy.
Yeah Blue Sky and the two stooges keep passing on everyone else…the way it looks now the Dodgers won’t break 80 won games this new year…then they should trade the the GM & Friends!!!
I’m in agreement. This is gonna be a long 2 seasons ahead.
One of the beautiful things of baseball is you never know who is going to emerge out of nowhere to be a star? Look at the Mets this year with deGromm, Syndergard, Harvey. & Matz who stepped up to win 41 games. Who could have guessed? Or that Jake Arrieta would win 22 games and the Cy Young?
Just to confirm, you are comparing a minor league rookie to cueto and Greinke.?
No? Did I do that? Let me know where I did. If I was comparing any two players I guess it would Greinke and Hisashi, but I wasn’t. I was more so “comparing” (for lack if better word) the Dodgers of 2015 to the Dodgers of 2016.
If Urias isn’t in the majors by the end of June it means that the back end of the rotation is doing well, which is obviously good news for the Dodgers.
Scratch that. I now think you were responding to a previous comment.
16 starts at AA doesnt mean he is very close, his BB rate doubled upon his promotion. he is a september call up at the earliest, arms go slower than bats.
Good luck using those pesky facts to support an argument.
Dodgers rotation would be even better if they’d actually call Zach Lee up
It sucks in the short term that a division rival signed a good pitcher, but I wouldn’t have signed him either
Me either, but then I don’t own a baseball team.
The Dodgers have Cotton, DeLeon and Urias in AAA. I’m sure the Giants would much rather have that than the risk involved with Cueto. While I agree that there is a certain level of risk aversion here, them losing the offseason because of it is ridiculous.
I agree
De Leon is in AA. Friedman has already said not to expect Urias in the majors in 2016. In fact nobody in that troika is expected until 2017.
Yes and De Leon is starting the season in AAA. Striking out 13 per 9 innings will do that. You’re correct in thinking they wont start the year in the rotation. If any of them excel in AAA as they have at every other level then you’re fooling yourself if you think they wont make the call. They don’t “expect” isnt the same as they “wont”..
So IOW, spin the big Wheel of Fortune, and pray. It’s a plan. Sort of.
Reality police: banking a season on rookies breaking through into key positions is a formula for failure. It works, but only for the team owners, on a financial basis. If you’re weary fans looking at 28 seasons of no parades, then it’s a little less charming.
And putting 100+ million on a guy coming off his worst season in 4 years isn’t spinning the wheel? If LA didn’t have contracts with similar burden like Crawford’s then this would look less troubling. FA is a crap shoot just like anything else. Except its an expensive one and possibly crippling as well.
The reality police forgot that the Dodgers tried this route when Malone took over and it failed. Miserably. They also forgot the Giants threw in Bumgarner and Posey in 2010 and won the WS.
I am not concerned with making the team’s bottom line, only with them winning. Seems to me the Giants won in other seasons even when they were “burdened” with “crippling” contracts. The fact is the Dodgers could easily afford to sign the big-ticket starter they need, but they’d prefer to keep the money. Some fans are always going to defend the team pocketing the difference. I am baffled by the logic. The simple fact remains the Dodgers passed on everybody who could make the team better, and the result is a weaker team in 2016, almost without question.
I neither said nor implied the bottom line had anything to do with winning. The idea that any team will ever just spend to oblivion is obviously not reasonable either. I said that signing a guy to a big contract does not immediately result in more wins. I also pointed to facts that countered your argument and you conveniently ignored them.
But you continue to use words like crippling, burden, and oblivion, as if they should not be interpreted as implying any knowledge of the team’s financial resources. Of course the bottom line doesn’t point to winning, it points to the bottom line, which is what I am saying they are trying to increase. Winning does not appear to be the plan, at least not in 2016. That would be 27 years and counting.
So here is what we know: $8B in media money, guaranteed. Ticket prices increased. When the team needed a legitimate third starter and setup man to put the team over the top, they failed to get it. The team failed in the postseason, again. This next season does not look better, it looks worse. Did I say 27 years and counting. Oh yeah I guess I did.
If your argument is the Dodgers chances are improved this year by virtue of their great offseason moves, then I would be greatly interested in the details. Otherwise, I don’t know what you are saying, other than we need to root for ownership’s bottom line.
BlueSky, it seems like Dodgers and non-Dodgers alike are trying to console you. Would it make you happier if we just let you be mad for a while?
I just said and you agreed that spending does not equate wins. Then you argue you want more spending. For what? You say rookies cant take important positions, then I bring up a team that started a dynasty doing just that, and you ignore it. You seem to want to spend just to spend and assume that means anything. LA just had a payroll pushing 300 million and hit the links earlier than the cheaper team they had the year prior. If spending to spend is your argument then.I wish you were my uncle come Christmas. If spending ment winning then last season should be proof thats false.
No one is comparing anyone to Greinke or Cueto. And the Dodgers spent an absurd 315 on payroll last year, which they said themselves was far beyond what they would spend in the future. No one cares about the Guggenheim Partners’ bottom line here; it’s just an acceptance of reality that ownership has some financial ceiling in its expenditures and the money might be better spent elsewhere. The Dodgers have four starters in the rotation, another close to majors option in Jharel Cotton, two potential guys coming back from injury (Ryu and McCarthy), a couple of long-relievers (Frias and Bolsinger), an elite prospect making his debut in 2016 (De Leon), another in 2017 (Urias), and two other young kids with considerable upside (Holmes and Alvarez). Not spending 130M on a guy with a creaky elbow or 200M plus on a 32 year old doesn’t exactly strike me as a terrible decision.
It’s also a little ironic that you would even complain about an ownership group looking out for its bottom line when their payroll blew away the rest of the field by significant margins.
Although we’ve downgraded from Greinke to Iwakuma, we’re inevitably going to sign someone to upgrade from Bolsinger/Latos in the fifth spot (Leake or Maeda, for example) and trading for an elite lefty reliever like Andrew Miller or Jake McGee seems like a better than 50% proposition right now. Having Seager for a full year at shortstop instead of Rollins is going to be another major upgrade. A deeper rotation, upgraded bullpen, and a huge upgrade at shortstop sounds good to me.
Anyone who is remotely happy with this offense must not have paid attention lasthma season. Even with a middle of the pack bullpen, and the current starters, we don’t make the playoffs. Turner and Grandal are hurt, Utley is old, Crawford is injury prone, Puig is inconsistent, Pederson is an unknown, and the rest have VERY little heart. Also, we have no leadoff guy and nothing has been done to shore up the bullpen yet.
This season is a disaster waiting to happen.
I am not complaining about the team looking out for their bottom line. I expect that. I am complaining about fans who think they need to look out for the team’s bottom line.
No fan is looking out for the bottom line. Every dollar not spent is a dollar that can be spent elsewhere and some think the money will be better invested in other players. In three years for example, while Cueto and Greinke are still making 25-30M as 35 year olds, the Dodgers can use that money to go after guys like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Chris Sale, or Josh Donaldson. I like spending money on generational talents in the prime, not top of the market prices on simply the best available player that particular year.
Wonder for how much.
Its a 6 year deal, probably just guessing maybe a Zito type contract but with a opt out clause I’m guessing.
Don’t want to be the guy spoiling it for the guys here but
Shark and Cueto
Two guys coming off of their worst years.
I know there’s reason to be optimistic and all but man are they a risk.
4.1 fWAR last year. By no means his worst. And even if it were, coming off a 4.1 WAR is not coming off a bad season.
Biggest risk is health, but it’s the same risk you get with any long-term deal.
Let me phrase it differently then.
Two guys coming off of off years.
Super gamble none the less right?
Like guys coming off down or slightly down years is so much more of a risk than a guy coming off a big year. Check Greinke’s stats after his last huge year; he was good for roughly 5 rWAR over the following two years, which there’s no particular reason to think Cueto won’t produce just next year.
4.1 WAR isn’t an exactly an off year. He struggled with elbow stiffness and a rough outing in KC.
Samardzija is a gamble, yes. Cueto’s gamble is purely with his health.
Wow. One more example for me to use as to why WAR is the most useless “stat” ever. Johnny Cueto in 2014:
20-9; 243.2 IP; 8.94 K/9; 2.4 BB/9; 46.2% GB; 2.25 ERA; 3.30 FIP; 3.21 xFIP
4.6 WAR player
Cueto in 2015
11-13; 212 IP; 7.47 K/9; 1.95 BB/9; 42.5% GB; 3.44 ERA; 3.53 FIP; 3.78 xFIP
Somehow still a 4.1 WAR player despite a CLEARLY obvious WAY worse year.
Keep using WAR to put a value on a player, people…… it *clearly* makes perfect sense. I wish I could type me rolling my eyes…… I guess I just did.
WAR’s just another stat to consider as well.
I don’t think the executives just look at this to make their minds.
One stat I like is quality starts. A pitcher who consistently gets into the 6th and 7th innings is probably doing something right…
I’ve posted this 1000 times I think, but WAR for pitchers is a work in progress. It is based on FIP and FIP doesn’t accurately represent all pitchers. Cueto is one of those pitchers. He’s outpitched his FIP every single year of this career and most years it wasn’t even close. So you can’t take WAR for much for Cueto. There’s a handful of pitchers that pretty much always outpitch their FIP.
To chicubbies1, are you basing his 2015 being so very much worse than his 2014 on anything more than ERA and k’s and W-L? Your post didn’t mention how many home vs away games he pitched in each year, the quality of teams he pitched to in each year, the rest he pitched on in each year, the games vs each league he pitched to each year, etc. You want to discount a state but you’re just as if not more simplistic yourself in your analysis.
WAR is all around a “work in progress” pitcher or position player. Unless you truly believe Kiermaier is actually a 7+ WAR player with his .260 BA and .300 OBP. According to WAR Kiermaier is one of the premier players in the game, up there with the likes of McCutchen, Votto, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Rizzo, etc. WAR is a horrible metric and is insanely overused, not only by fans on here, but especially in the media. I blame brillo pad head Brian Kenny. He is as big a homer as Harold Reynolds IMO. Sorry, watching MLBnet right now.
I think WAR drives me crazy just because of how overused and misused it has become. Even the homer network (ESPN) uses it on their “stat leaders” page on their website. MLB network plasters it all over the place the second a player’s name is mentioned. I never thought I’d say this, but I side with Harold Reynolds and his stance against WAR. IMO a made up number would be just as accurate. The fact not a single sole other than the Bill James minions calculating these stats can actual calculate it makes it even that more questionable IMO. If you need several pages to explain how you derive a stat it isn’t a stat anymore and just an arbitrary number. Defensive runs saved is another stat that gets me twitching with annoyed anger, haha.
how in the world did baseball fans ever get along without WAR? We had no way of knowing Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson were the best players in the game in their eras, did we? Maybe instead of HR, RBI and BA on the scoreboard, they’ll put a player’s WAR….because without it, we can’t possibly know Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt are great hitters!
ChiCubbies1,
I agree with you 100%. I hate WAR and find it to be a completely useless stat. The reason I find it useless though is because I am a math person (mechanical engineer). I understand how to calculate most of the modern stats and find them so much better than the old days of Avg and Rbi’s.. I rail against WAR whenever I can especially for pitchers. The reason I think so many others use it as their immediate take that stat is because it is so easy to understand.. To them someone with a 5 WAR means he provided 5 more wins to his team over an average player. Not everyone is a math whiz and as individuals we are all good at different things. I have grown to appreciate WAR for one thing; once I see someone throwing a WAR stat out in trying to make a point, I stop trying to debate with them. It shows me right away that they don’t understand most of the more valuable stats. Does it make them any less of a fan? Nope. It does show me that they are at least making an attempt to modernize their thinking. The stat I wish fans that do not understand how it works would stop using would be FIP for relief pitchers. My stomach starts to churn when someone brings up FIP in determining which “closer” (yeah I hate the term closer too) is better. It is a fact that pitchers are at their best (get most of their k’s and are not hit very hard) the first time through a lineup and around the 3rd time through is when they start to get knocked around. How can you predict how a pitcher will do when they never go through a lineup once, let alone multiple times.. When the Kimbrel trade happened a couple of weeks ago I was shocked at how many people used WAR and FIP to determine his value the last couple of seasons. Sorry about the rant. I will shut up now..
You may never read this, but I just want to make one [pretty big] correction to what you said, and I’m certainly not trying to argue with you. I bet you DO already know this, but the next time you make this argument I don’t want it to be negated by using a wrong definition. Just lookin out…
WAR is Wins Above REPLACEMENT level. “Replacement level” does not equal “average.” Replacement level equals close to the bottom of the barrel. There are certainly some players with negative WAR, but they aren’t going to last long.
This year, “replacement level” were guys like Evan Gattis, Jay Bruce, Melky Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Jean Segura, Nick Castellanos, Logan Morisson.
I’m not going to calculate the Average, but if we take the 141 qualified position players and take the mean (instead of average) we have about a 2.6 WAR player. Those are guys like ARod, Brandon Phillips, Brett Gardner, Daniel Murphy, David Ortiz, and even Ryan Braun was at 2.8 with a pretty solid season.
So again, I’m sure you do know this, but the word “average” over “replacement level” changes everything quite a bit.
And actually, taking the mean of only qualified players doesn’t work because I took out a lot of the lesser players and therefore raised the mean. So the mean should be less. But you get the idea.
From fangraphs, “League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR…”
Could have saves myself a little time.
Chicubbies, it’s obvious from your posts that you don’t value defense, but most MLB teams and front offices do. It really starting happening when teams like the Rays were playing with and beating the big market teams even though their players had less RBIs and lower batting averages. It’s going to be a rough few years for you because I know your coach highly values defense. So much so that you’ll be able to argue all day about why player X with more RBIs should be playing over no hit player Y.
not as big a risk as doing nothing and calling up a bunch of prospects or resigning lincecum and vogelsong hoping that they will somehow eat innings – before the signings rotation pieces didn’t exist – in a lot of ways the biggest risk here is still cain
6/130, opt out after 2.
I’m betting the opt out will be at minimum after yr 3 if he has one.
I would think so – this is a big win for cueto if you consider he gets to pitch in a pitcher’s park with an opt any time after 2 years – meaning that he has 2 years of pitching in one of the worst hitters parks to increase his stock.
Good deal for both sides. Cueto gets a solid AAV and can opt out in two years to test the market. Giants get a top of the rotation arm for two seasons. If Cueto pitches well enough over the next two seasons to want to test the market, the Giants should have arms coming up through the system to take the spots vacated by Cain and Cueto in 2018.
Good stuff for the Giants. Good fit for the park and I’m sure the fans will love him. Health is the only question…but what are the Dodgers doing?
And the Cardinals fans and players breathe a sigh of relief.
Dodgers are still winning the division
Only if they get another impact pitcher.
Which also would likely mean an LDS exit
To the Cardinals
They really might make a deal for Fernandez now wow.
Nope, Indians much more likely.
In what world are they winning the division? Lol, you’re putting entirely too much on Iwakuma, Anderson and Ryu. Greinke = 2 of them. Where is the hitting coming from? Don’t say Joc until Joc proves he can hit over the Mendoza. You need a full year of Seager. Who is playing second? Third is who? Turner? Outfield is an oft injured Crawford, Puig who may or may not be there next season and Andre the Giant Ethier. Oh yeah and Agon is getting older now younger….
Lastly, have they fixed the bullpen? Doesn’t look like it
Dam this NL West gonna be a big fight between Giants DBacks and Dodgers just like what happened between Cubs Pirates and Cardinals last year
Gonna be a competitive division that’s for sure.
Will be fun to watch.
You’re counting out the Rockies I take it?
I think everyone, including the Rockies, are counting out the Rockies in 2016. I just hope they make it back to the playoffs in my lifetime.
They’re open to selling Blackmon / Cargo for young ones.
This should be enough to think that they’re rebuilding perhaps.
Shame they can’t really compete in the tough division.
They have great talent in Dickerson / Arenado / LeMahieu.
They just don’t have a rotation at all.
I’m guessing they want to go the Braves and Phillies rout and
rack up on pitching prospects from this point on.
stop being greedy you had 2007
You must be a Dodgers fan to lump them in here…
No man, you heard me right. Dodgers got the best pitcher in the game, a nice outfield, good catcher in Grandal, one of the best 1B these past seasons, Seager who seems like he is ready for the MLB, and an also great option at Justin Turner for 3B. They still have all the money to get more free agents.
Great idea! Throw all their money at what’s left of the free agent market. Nobody left to throw the money at that would constitute a response to what the D’backs and Giants have done this off-season.
And the Giants have 3 World Championships in 6 years. Game. Set. Match over the Dodgers.
Should be a fun division to watch next year. Right now, the dodgers look like the weakest of the three, but I never count them out, they know how to get it done in the regular season. I’m betting that they add someone like bauer or go after one of the remaining free agents before the offseason is up. I’d also put money on them adding an impact player at the deadline.
Except the 3rd place Cubs in the NL central were still 4 games ahead of the 4th best team in the whole national league.
If we can somehow do a cheap 1 year LF deal with Bryd, I think this has the chance to be a solid off season
I’d like to see them do that and maybe add someone like Kelly Johnson or bring back uribe to have a veteran infielder on the bench
Steve,
Let me know when you’re sending that crow so I can get my bib ready.
So Cueto will win a ring in back to back seasons on 2 different clubs!
Oh snap! Shots fired!
This is very good for the Giants.Cueto will help that team a lot.
Nice job SF Giants! Another player that the Dodgers were interested in but they loose out.
YEAH!!!!!!
Bum
Cueto
Shark
Peavy
Cain
I like it!
imo, Shark, Peavy, and Cain are all enormous question marks.
Even Cueto is too after that second half performance he put up last year.
Peavy’s replacement level and will probably miss 5-10 starts. That’s his MO now.
Cueto’s less concerning than Shark and Cain.
Call the Braves for Teheran.
Referring to the Dodgers!
And pirates and Cubs can any one say bidding war. And if it pirates my bloke buster trade it will more possible
loser.
As a Braves fan, the Dodgers should call the Indians before the Braves. Atlanta’s not budging this offseason on demands.
Based on the rumors. the Indians haven’t exactly been reasonable.
Really Great NEWZ……and the Dodgers are still playing pocket pool with themselves and claiming…”we got irons in the fire???”……….YEAH…WELL I HOPE YOU BURN YOURSELVES!!!
Tell me it doesn’t look like the two STOOGES aren’t just waiting for all the decent talent to be gone and then say…”…there’s no one out there better than we already have…so we’ll just stand pat”….”Maybe Clayton can pitch 4 times a week???”
I haven’t heard the phrase “playing pocket pool” in about a decade, good one.
On topic, doesn’t the club option in 2017 mean that SF can just bail after one year if Cueto busts?
Supposed to say “club option for a seventh season,” and in my haste, I botched it. Apologies — pretty egregious error on my behalf.
No problem, I was just very confused haha
Steve, you do a great job. Errors happen. Own it, and let us bust your balls in two or three years when you finally make another.
No it doesn’t look like that…AT ALL! IT looks like the Dodgers GM is a smart man who isn’t willing to extend ridiculous contracts that probably aren’t going to work out. Only deal I would have signed this offseason was the one for Heyward and I would have made the opt out mutual.or not given one at all
Great deal for a pitcher who should profile really well in AT&T. I really like the 2 year opt out too. Sets them up for signing one of the huge free agents set up for the 18-19 offseason.if he opts out.
Do you think the Giants would just sit it out and not try to re-up with Cueto, or roll the dice and hope you land one of the pitchers in 2018 if he does opt out? I am assuming Cueto would only opt out if he has two good-great years. So assuming he does I dont see anyway the Giants dont try to resign him and wait on the 18-19 like you suggested. I think they would have to take the plunge and try to resign Cueto..
it also gives time to the farm – 2 years and you can see what happened with beede, bickford, stratton, black, blackburn, etc if they stay as starters and don’t get used as trade bait – so long as cueto does well and rides the free market at that point you might have a guy to bring up – that is around when cain’s contract is up too if i am not mistaken.
The 2 year opt out belongs to the player not the team. It’s a mistake that has been corrected in the article.
The extra $10m is only about about $4m because of the tax rates.
Nowhere in America has a 60% tax rate. Stop listening to the talking heads on tv.
Arizona state tax is 0%
The difference is in state and local tax for the entire contract, not just the $10m difference.
12.8% of the entire $130m in CA = $17,940,000
10.3% of the entire $120m in AZ = $12,360,000
That’s a $5,580,000 difference.
Stop assuming people are sheep because you can’t follow along.
Income tax is 0% like g55s said. I was looking at a different tax. That makes his contract worth $7,940,000 less with SF.
Well even that is wrong because players have to pay based on where their team is playing, so AZ players play a lot of games in Cali, so have to pay Cali state tax,, it evens out about 50% of the difference (because they play half their games out of state). Add to that, the fact that state income tax is deductible from federal income tax, and its even lower. So the difference is more like 3M.
Oh I assure you I can follow along. Also states taxes are deducted from federal taxes so the math is nowhere near as simple as you just calculated. Let’s just admit you were wrong and move along
Dedudcted from federal income my apologies
I believe you pay tax in the state you play for. If he pitches in wrigley he pays Ill tax if next start in cincy pays Ohio tax . Called days of duty tax or isn’t there a jock tax?
Here;’s an article on the subject; it’s not surprisingly a bit complicated, but I think we can all agree that unless you feel generous toward your Public State and Local Organized Crime Family, it’s a good idea to play in a state/local jurisdiction with a low tax rate. baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12784
Giants still need a bat but, do they have the moves for one?
Stackin that rotation! If Cain can get it back together we could be dangerous!!
This came together quickly. Clearly this didn’t exactly blow Arizona’s offer out of the water.
The opt-out after two years is what makes this deal a lot more attractive for Cueto. Not sure if the DBacks included that in their offer, but I don’t think they did.
From Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports
Total money spent on starters this offseason: $943,300,000. Add in relievers, and teams have spend $1,120,950,000 — $1.12B — on pitching.
Andrew Friedman and the boys seem pretty risk averse.
Don’t know what they plan to do with an aging offense and a weakened rotation
but it feels like they need to do more to contend in the division.
Wonder what their options are from this point on?
Talk with Leake and really look hard for bullpen help. Unless help from the kids comes sooner than expected, their rotation will be significantly weaker. Think they’re gonna crazy glue their fingers crossed.
Friedman looked like a guy who made sound moves with the Rays
but I guess they were mostly sellers back then.
Wonder if he can pull off some trades as buyers
now that he needs to win every year.
You are assuming they really care. The Dodgers raised ticket prices and have their media money in the bank. Now they can down on the expense side and make more profit. And why not, if the fans don’t complain?
I think he’s starting to pull a Cashman move on the Dodgers.
While I’m not arguing they need to make moves, the term aging offense seems inappropriate. Grandal is 27, Pederson is 23, Seager is 21, Puig is 25, those 4 are pretty young and all starters. Turner is 31, which is prime years. 2B is a question mark with Peraza possibly getting a shot to win it in spring training next year over Utley, Peraza is 21, even if Utley wins it at age 36, he doesn’t figure to be a major piece of their offense. Eventually they will need to find a new 1B and LFer, both are 33. Disregarding 2B, the average age of position starters on the team is 27. If Utley wins it as expected, on opening day the average age will be around 29, not exactly old.
Aging offense? Grandal. Seager, Pederson, and Puig are all fairly young/in their prime. That’s half their offense.
As for the rotation? I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign Leake. There’s also still other more affordable options in Chen, Gallardo, Kazmir, Latos, Fister, Lincecum? (last 3 could/should possibly be had on 1 year deals), and……… Cliff Lee. Point is, they still have options. It’s not like Kershaw and Wood. People in LA seem to be down on Wood just because he struggled upon arrival. He’s been a solid pitcher though his whole career. I bet he bounces back in 2016. Brett Anderson was also decent last year. No they don’t have 2 Aces anymore…… welcome to the rest of the league.
We’re not down on Wood. He’s a 3-4-5 starter depending on the team. He could be useful, but he is not what the Dodgers need.
Am I reading this correctly that the 2017 club option allows the team to opt out after just 1 year? So it’s basically a pillow contract with a pre-negot contract tacked on?
He can opt out after 2 years.
It could be beneficial to both parties, or just to Cueto, all depending on how Cueto pitches.
well Cueto’s opt out would be after 2017, but Crasnick’s report indicates the team can opt out before the 2017 season, if they chose to.
“Johnny Cueto’s deal with #SFGiants is for six years and $130M with an opt out after 2 years.” twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/676516261862514688
Is there another report from Crasnick? I can’t imagine any FA would sign a deal that allows the team to opt out of guaranteed money if they wanted to.
According to Crasnick, the club option is to add a 7th season.
That error is on me, and my brain swapping “seventh year” and “2017” for some reason. The contract is six years, $130MM with a two-year opt-out and a club option for a seventh season. Cueto gets $46MM from 2016-17.
That means the Giants are out on Alex Gordon
He’s not guaranteed $130MM if there’s a club option after 2017…
The team option is for the 2017 season. He is only guaranteed 2016 unless the team picks up the 2017 option. He could be a free agent again in 2017.
Right — error on my part. The club option is for a seventh season, and apparently I hastily transposed that 7 in “seventh” to “2017” when typing. Apologies. It’s been updated.
Six years, $130MM with a two-year opt-out and a seventh-year club option. $46MM over th first two years of the deal.
The opt out after 2017 was pretty predictable, but a team option for 2017 is very interesting. I don’t think the Giants are certain he is healthy.
I agree….that’s the weirdest clause I’ve ever seen in a while. I guess it’s really a 1 year deal with a 5 year option?….LOL
Good for Johnny, but I’m still concerned about the elbow.
Does anyone know how close the Giants payroll for 2016 is to the Dodgers now? I can’t see it being to far off.
The Giants are still below the luxury tax level, so not close in dollars
Giant(s) Mistake.
The Dodgers are the only team having a worse offseason than the Cards.
Both teams are proven winners. ESPECIALLY the Cardinals and this is coming from an Astros fan. I applaud both groups for sticking to principles
Exactly. If the Cards and Dodgers are both passing up on these high-cost, long term contracts to the over-30 crowd of pitchers, that might be telling you something..
Gooood Luck Cueto!!!
Wow. Good signing for both sides. About 100% chance Cueto reestablishes his value and opts out.
I don’t understand all these opt out clauses from the teams perspective. I don’t see how it benefits them much. Other then maybe being the deciding factor for someone to sign there?
Backloaded contract so if the player opts out, the team gets him for cheap during his best years.
Why wouldn’t the team give im the opt-out? It’s actually safer for them…. You’re paying for his remaining two prime years while hoping that he opts-out. Let another team pay for the downfall…
And if he declines he doesn’t opt out and the team is stuck with the bill. Opt-outs only protect the player’s interests.
And if he opts out you lose the asset, which is a substantial loss. You could have traded him, or just enjoyed a productive SP for a cheap price (especially in this case, as the contract is front loaded).
There is no scenario in which a contract with an opt out is better for the team than a contract without one. None. It’s a mathematical certainty.
If he opts out, you gain back a tremendous asset: $87 million.
Players get everything now. If they rock, they can opt out. If they suck, the can continue eating their current team’s payroll. If I were a team, I would want there to be opt outs on my end too, not just the player’s end.
Even if he “sucks,” he’ll opt out, as the contract is front loaded. The only way he doesn’t opt out is if his elbow or some other body part goes kablooey.
He may or may not suck the first two seasons, but he doesn’t have the stamina to pitch effectively much more than that. SF will be stuck with whats left of his contract and Dr. Andrews may have another patient.
If a player wants to sign a contract with a team opt-out, I’m sure they can… I don’t know why they would, though.
“Players get everything now” well, they play the game after all, aren’t they?
In this case the team got an opt out after 1 year if he sucks or isnt healthy.
Man this sucks. I really liked Cueto and enjoyed rooting for him with the Reds and the Royals. I didn’t care when Samardzija signed with the Giants because I have never liked him anyway, but this one hurts. Oh well, I guess it’s better than being a Dodger or a Diamondback, but not by much.
Such is the nature of baseball that Cueto’s arm will continue to degrade and Samardzija may never realize what so many expect of him. Could very well be a double-bust.
This is going to be a fun year to watch the NL.
Cueto is a solid bet. Wouldn’t be surprised if he delivers more value than the marquee pitchers. The Dodgers need to bite the bullet and trade for Sale, Carrasco or someone in that class.
or go out and see if they can get that Japanese pitcher. taking a risk on a unknown is better then giving up alot in a traded.
And what have my Padres done while all these NL West teams are busy getting markedly better? Nothing, other than (over) spend on an aging, injury-prone Matt Kemp last year (via trade). Ugh.
I think they’re slowly trying to slide into a rebuild mode without actually telling anybody. Or they are just lost.
As for Ceuto, well maybe he’ll get another shot at a World Series ring this upcoming season.
No, but seriously, do the dodgers plan on doing anything this off season besides watch everyone else in the division make moves?
well chapman was theirs till that news came out. dodgers can still go out and get some decent pitching if they wanted. there still a guy from japan. which you hear little about. i see the dodgers going after him. off season still pretty young and dodgers will make moves in due time.
Why would any team sign a contract with a player “opt out” clause unless it was a two way opt out(player or team)?
It gives the player leverage.
Not to mention, if Cueto opts out going into his age 33 season, the Giants save $87M. That’s incredibly valuable as well.
Sigh … not it’s not. There is no possibility that the Giants are better off with the opt out than without it. Opt outs favor players, period, end of story.
You think a team would be mad that they get $87M back? Especially considering the fact that not a lot of FA contracts are good after a few years.
If a player opts out, it’s because he thinks he can make more $. If he can make more $ than he is signed to, he has a positive value. If he has a positive value, you can trade him for more than nothing.
The player would only opt out if he was playing well enough to get more than the $87M left. If he could get more, he’d be more valuable to have at that price than lose. If he falls apart and isn’t worth the money, he wouldn’t opt out. The other guys are right, opt outs almost never work in favor of the teams. It’s a significant value to the players that teams give to drop the AAV down a bit.
Him thinking he can make more money doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be *worth* more money though.
There are an awful lot of pitchers in baseball history who pitched well at ages 30 and 31 and less well from ages 32-36. As a Giants fan, I’ll be thrilled if he pitches well enough to justify opting out and then let some other team take on the risk of his decline years.
BINGO seamaholic! Think Grienke would have opted out if he had gone 6-11 this season? The Dodgers would have been on the hook like SF was with Zito!
I have long asked this question
Because “opt outs” are the new no trade clause. It’s just something to sweeten the deal to get a player signed for slightly less money.
I like how people are acting like teams will be destroyed over a single player’s contract. Pretty sure all if not a majority of MLB team owners are ALL Billionaires. I think they can afford these $20+….. $30+ million players. If not they wouldn’t make the offer. I mean even the Marlins owner is filthy rich and refuses to spend on his team…… until he feels like it, and then it is for only 1-2 years. Trust me, every team owner could probably afford a 120-130M payroll, at least…… they just choose not to.
An opt out is most beneficial for low market teams that dont want 2 spend a lot of money. In hopes of luring a solid player in, hoping he performs and then opts out.. Making the potentially big long term contract a smaller few year rental
You could make a case that Cueto was the best free agent pitcher, including Price and Greinke.
Well, not including Price, I’d argue. But yeah, he’s about the same level as Greinke.
You could make the same argument for the other 2…… still searching for your point.
I could make a case that Lucky Charms beats Cocoa Puffs and Cinnamon Toast Crunch.
Lucky charms do beat them, but none are Reeses Puffs.
No you can’t. Price and Greinke are both better and less of an injury risk. Having said that Cueto’s very good too and this two year deal should work fine for the Giants, unless he gets hurt.
Well, this is a much better signing than Shark. Considering what Price, and especially Greinke got, this is a great signing for the Giants.
…… unless there is something wrong with his elbow and 10 starts into the season goes down and finds out he needs Tommy John surgery. But yeah…. it looks good on paper today.
This contract is less expensive than I thought it would be. Paying $23 million for the first two seasons even with the opt out is about as little risk as a team that brings Cueto on can reasonably hope for. I was expecting something around an AAV of $25 million. Not a huge discount but its something.
It would have been $25m if not for the opt out. That’s about what an opt out is worth.
He was seeking an AAV of $25 million to begin with. There was always going to be an opt out
All part of the negotiation. No team “wants” to do it, but in this market the players have all the leverage. I suppose they could have thrown more money at him. But it’s great for the player. If Cueto is doing better than expected he could opt out like Greinke. If he is stinking it up or gets hurt, he plays out his contract and calls it a career.
Buddy..I was going to engage you here, but your writing just sucks to much. I’m not a grammar-spelling Nazi. I don’t go around correcting everyone but this is just to much to hurt my eyes over
Sorry mods. I didn’t think about that word. Just thinking context
One word: What?
Breathe dawg!
Well thats a fine wall of text if i do say so myself!
Whole lotta words right there…
This guys been writing up these weird long posts forever.
Just leave this guy alone.
TL;DR
Poor Leake. Seems like a guy who just wants to pitch near his home and is willing to take less to that. Yet, no one on the west is looking to sign him. Dbacks should offer 3 year 40 million deal and see if he accepts. He is quickly falling through the cracks
Leake is no ace, but he is easily overlooked at time in my eyes.
Dude is only 28 and has a career 3.88 ERA while calling Cincinnati home for nearly 6 seasons.
My brain shut off at “world series”.
Mine shut off at “i say”. Even foghorn leghorn has a better grasp of the English language.
Mine shut off at “i say”. Even foghorn leghorn has a better grasp of the English language
Think this is a great deal for the Giants if he stays healthy.
Cueto is only 30 and has a career 3.30 ERA, while spending his career in a hellish park for pitchers in Cincy.
Call me crazy, but I think the Giants are better than the D-Backs at this point. And they may not even be done, may get a guy like Upton or Cespedes to play left field.
The D’backs made better upgrades but Giants have in fact upgraded and I feel that Cueto will be fine back in the National League. On top of that before the changes the Giants were probably still a better team on paper so, no you’re not crazy to say the Giants right now are a better team than the D’backs. At this point I’d say it’s really a matter of opinion.
I’m sure ALOT of D-Backs fans would call me crazy.
If you said the opposite, a lot of Giants fans would call you crazy.
C’est la vie.
How are the gladies better they have NO OFFENSE
The Giants scored more runs than the Dodgers last year. On top of that their offense isn’t changing by much. Sooooo….
Wow Dodgers don’t get Greinke, Price, Cueto, Miller or Zimmermann.
Not sure if Kershaw, Ryu (health concern), Anderson (health concern), Wood (look at that delivery) and Iwakuma (34 years old) can compete now.
At this point, they should consider Leake.
The Dodgers will do much better than Leake.
It’s amazing how teams sign 30-something pitchers to long-term contracts,, get stuck with an albatross around their necks for 2-3 years and then seemingly just can’t wait to do it again.
I mean i would love to see the red sox to offload pablo somewere then next year move hanley to dh then sign encarnacion to play third
gladies OVERPAYING for one below average pitcher and one above average ..so you got two average pitches and are stuck with them for 4-6 years THANK YOU
Fascinating–a two year opt-out. Giants probably rooting for two very high caliber years, to be followed by an opt-out, to be followed by vigorous bidding, to be followed by “I loved my time in San Fransciso, but…”
I’m fine with that haha… then Giants don’t have to pay him in his declining years š
with more and more pitchers being sign dodgers could have a good shot at getting that Japanese pitcher if they wanted. a 3 year at say 40 mill for him could look better then the 6 year deal for cueto.
I’m from the East Coast and have never been to SF. I nearly went to the last Championship parade. Looks like I need to start looking ahead. Get me Gordon too and I’ll buy the tickets! Go Giants!
Bandwagon much?
That, and one that doesn’t understand how money works
if dodgers sign another starter lets just get hideo nomo 2.0 and call it a day. he will cost what 20 mill plus a fair like 3 year 30 mill or something close to what ryu got. i just thunk it be better to get him then to pay alot for starter in a trade.
Lol Maeda is being predicted to get 60-80 mil good luck with that price
Not the 2 guys I would have went for, but I trust my team.
Holy cow, a lot of hate for the Dodgers rotation in here. WAR projections still see their rotation as the best in baseball for 2016. You can certainly quibble with that if you want, but it’s pretty hard to call a rotation led by Kershaw and Iwakuma a major problem.
Where you getting those projections from?
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&t…
i like how the picture is a picture of santiago casilla with johnny cuetos head lol
it would have been funnier if it was affeldt with cuetos head