NOV. 13: The Astros announced (via Twitter) that Rasmus has accepted the offer and will return to the club in 2016.
NOV. 12: Outfielder Colby Rasmus will become the first player ever to accept a qualifying offer, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that he’ll take the one-year, $15.8MM deal extended to him by the Astros.
Rasmus, 29, slashed a productive .238/.314/.475 over 485 plate appearances last year. He also swatted 25 home runs while playing solid defense all over the outfield. And Rasmus reversed his traditional platoon splits, hammering lefties to the tune of .252/.364/.471 (in 140 trips to the plate).
In some ways that represented a big year for Rasmus, especially when combined with a torrid (but short-lived) post-season run. In truth, though, it really only affirmed his standing. His on-base percentage did drop below .300 in an injury-plagued 2014, but his power numbers were good enough that he still put together the second of three consecutive seasons with better-than-league-average production.
Rasmus will presumably spend most of his time in left, flanking center fielder Carlos Gomez. Slick defender Jake Marisnick may take some plate appearances against opposing southpaws.
Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said recently that the team was hopeful that Rasmus would accept, and it appears he’ll get his wish. The club will neither gain nor lose any draft picks. Rasmus will be treated like any other free agent who has signed a deal, meaning that he cannot be traded without consent until June 15th of 2016. (Click here for more of the rules governing the qualifying offer.)
The $15.8MM sum is a lot on an annual basis, to be sure. But it’s hardly an earth-shattering sum in this day and age. And Houston will benefit from the fact that it need not commit to Rasmus beyond next season, allowing the club to re-assess after the year. Of course, some planning will be required: both he and Gomez will at that point be eligible for free agency, and the team has dealt away several significant prospects (Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana were sent in the Gomez trade) who might have been ready to step in.
Over the three prior years that the qualifying offer system was in place, no player ever took the deal. As we’ve often discussed here at MLBTR, it rarely makes sense for a free agent to do so, since in most cases preserving the possibility of a multi-year deal is worth the risk — especially given that many players will still end up with a chance at a similar one-year deal as a fallback.
But as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained on Tuesday in his outlook piece for the Astros, Rasmus seemed an unusually likely candidate to accept the one-year offer. While he’s still young, the Excel Sports Management client faced a competitive market situation and was not quite a full-time player last year. After failing to find a home with the Cardinals and Blue Jays, he seemed to fit in well in Houston. And it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have an opportunity to re-enter the market next year. While there are still some quality outfielders among the crop of expected 2016-17 free agents, it’s not as deep a class as the current one.
Looking elsewhere in the free agent market, players such as Denard Span and Gerardo Parra figure to benefit from today’s decision. While they are entirely different types of players, both are left-handed hitters who move up a peg in the outfield market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Not surprising, that was a stretch in the first place. Still young enough to get a nice deal after this year too.
Ohh God I hope Kennedy doesn’t accept.
Don’t think Boras will let him
There have been instances where Boras’ clients *do* accept one year deals.
– Maddux (Feb. 2003)
– Soriano (Dec. 2009)
And back then, the free agency compensation rules were a lot looser too.
Well, he ‘let’ Wieters do it. Dumbfounded.
What is a realistic contract for him?
Of all the players the Yankees traded away over the years we have not missed Kennedy. They say he isn’t going to accept so hopefully he is stinking up someone else’s rotation next year before he is relegated to long relief somewhere.
Meeh, I had this pick in my free agent contest. Now it’s wasted.
My first thought too
I had colby rejoining the stros too, and he did, why is that wasted pick :o?
Because everyone can still edit their picks. So everyone will have this one correct if they’re smart enough to edit.
Big IF
Not wasted, more like never granted. (He would have had problems with the QO attatchment. Sox or Mariners never got a pick for Stephen Drew or Kendrys Morales. Stros knew someone would accept it. 3 now apparently.
I’m not sure if Rasmus is worth $16mm but I am glad he’s back. I was hoping he’d sign a 3 yr. $36mm contract and hang around.
Or $25/2 but he’s betting on himself and thinks 2 good seasons will get him more. I like optimism!
Good move for player. Most money he could get.
Bad move org. He’s not worth that amount. There will be more productive players available on one yr. contract for less (like Cruz was)
some would be tied to draft picks. this is the smarter move.
If he plays as well as he did last year, he is absolutely worth $15M
if a platoon OF is worth 15MM, how much are the Astros expecting to pay the starters? This was a dumb move by the team. Right up there with the 20MM per year the Red Sox paid Porcello.
No such thing as a bad 1-year deal
It’s a one year deal. If he plays like last year, it’s a good deal. If he plays terribly, it’s a one year commitment. It was worth the risk to extend him a QO.
there was no risk as they killed his market the moment they offered it. no team was going to give up a draft pick for a 4th OF. David Murphy was at a 9 MM team option and the Angels declined it, and he was BETTER.
David Murphy is nowhere near as good as Rasmus anymore. The Angels declined his 9MM option because he’s sub-replacement level. In the last three years, Murphy has earned almost 0 WAR. In the last three years, Rasmus has earned almost as much WAR (~8.5) as Murphy has over his 10-year career (~10).
Its a smart move since the loss of a pick would hurt him. Now he stands a good chance of being traded at the deadline so the Astros can unload some salary and he will not be burdened with costing a team a draft pick.
Its also possible the Astros negotiate a 3 yr deal at a lower AAV
Why would they trade him in the middle of a playoff race? (which they will be in next July)
Have to wonder if they have the arms.
Contending teams don’t trade Major League contributors.
That assumes that the Astros don’t stumble, and that he contributes, which he doesn’t always do.
To balance salary in a big deal they might
Smart move by Rasmus considering he probably wouldn’t have gotten anything close to that on the market.
Couldn’t agree more.. and I thing after the Cardinals Alex Reyes got a 50 game suspension he needed to act quick. This guy is the biggest pot head in the league and if drug tested, he would be done-ZO.
Because of the long hair?
MLB is different than MiLB. You dont get suspended for pot in the Majors. You just pay a fine. And there is no limit to how many times you can test positive.
Great move for the Astros, since Gordon would have cost much more and tied down payroll for multiple years. The salary is high, but if it doesn’t work out the Astros aren’t tied to a long term deal.
Colby Jack was a big part of the playoff push, fits in well with the young core and even when he’s having cold streaks at the plate, he’s valuable in the field.
With this move, you can bank on Carter and/or Gattis being moved.
In your eyes, which of the two is more likely to be gone?
Knew he would accpet the QO! He had to go practically begging for a job last seaon. MLBTradeRumors had him pegged at 3yrs $39M which I knew was way over his market. He’d be lucky to get $15.8M over 2 years on the open market.
Lotta teams wish they had signed him to that deal.
was rooting for the cubs to do it last year, could have used valbuena for a bullpen arm that way, who knows if the year goes the same then though.
He had to accept as it far exceeds his true value. Guess it helps both sides.
Called it. Smart move for Rasmus to accept the QO.
Someone finally took the offer! It seems like a good decision for Rasmus. A few of these instances and teams will start to think twice about offering them. That would actually work in the players favor because guys who aren’t top free agents get hurt by having a draft pick attached to them. It is limiting the number of teams, offers and free agent dollars they can get. As a baseball geek, I’m excited about this.
I have a question. Can the Astros give him another qualifying offer after next season, or no?
Yes they can
A “productive” .238.
Have we sunk to such low standards that you call that productive AND deserving of 16 million dollars a year?
couldn’t agree with you more. unfortunately, everyone here’s standards are pretty low. waiting for someone to recommend 100 mil for him.
Or just a lot of fans here look more into a player than a single stat like batting average.
Batting average isn’t everything. He was worth 2.8 war this year. It’s about 7 mil per win so he was worth about 20 mill, so yes he is worth 16 mil.
The “WAR is worth X million dollars” conversation doesn’t really make any sense at all. If the Cardinals signed Jason Heyward for 45 million a year, you wouldn’t say “well, gee, that’s what he was worth last year.”
Its different because Jason heyward is going to cost a team 10 years. This is only on a one year deal so there’s no long term commitment so yes. This is a good deal.
Heyward might cost a team ten years, but if so he will play for that team for ten years. Short term is really only a good deal for a team when they have a better controlled option waiting in the wings.
Its not a literal war=money, stop being so ardent.
a 113 OPS+ played all 3 outfield positions serviceably, and mashed 25 homers. More to players than just a single hand picked number.
Serviceable just doesn’t describe a 15MM salary. I am not seeing people point at “a single hand picked number” other than the QO. Could have had David Murphy for 9MM or less, and let the better fielder Marsnick cover CF.
As I said above, Murphy is terrible, but ilikebaseball’s point is that he was a serviceable defender in all three positions. Plus he wielded a pretty above average bat and hit a lot of HR.
Free Pick!
Lunhow was lying through his teeth though.
I do believe you made an error in the story. He cannot be traded without his permission before June.
I did leave that out in my haste. Corrected.
Interesting move by Rasmus. He took a one year deal to rebuild value, and then took the QO after he had earned a multi-year deal. He probably could have signed a longer term contract if he wanted, but you’ve gotta like it when a player has enough confidence to bet on himself. Next year’s free agent market for outfielders may be more to his liking, and if he has a good season this year he’d might be able to do better. Last year he was easily worth 15.8 million on the free agent market, but whether a team would be willing to give him an AAV in that neighborhood isn’t certain.
I heard he wasn’t interested in playing a whole lot longer so maybe he didn’t want a long contract
There is no bad one year deal. Good deal for both team and player.
History. He will be in the record books forever.
I wonder if this doesn’t change some thinking about the QO. The system is clearly flawed–although it’s a marked improvement from the older classification-based process which had a limited relationship to actual value. In the past, the QO was a drag on only certain player’s salaries–the mid-tier free agents or the older ones. It didn’t really act as a floor. Houston would never have made an offer this large to Rasmus without the lure of the pick. In the past, it’s been the players complaining. Now, I wonder if you won’t see ownership starting to grumble at bit.
If ownership is grumbling about someone accepting a QO, there’s an easy solution, Don’t offer the QO!!
It’s pretty simple for the team, really. All they have to do is ask themselves “does this player have value on a 1 year $15.8MM contract?” If yes, you offer the QO, if no, you don’t.
We aren’t disagreeing. The QO for a player who isn’t really worth the QO amount is basically a challenge trade between the player and management. The owner has to be willing to accept the possibility of overpay in order to get the draft pick, the player has to be fairly certain he can do better on the open market. Rasmus is a peculiar test of it–it’s a bit like the three-year signing of Milton Bradley–you know you are paying for potential, but there’s definitely downside risk. The Owners, being good businessmen, generally prefer situations with as little economic risk as possible. Until Rasmus, making a QO was pure profit.
Wonder how this plays out in the clubhouse where he has reportedly had issues in the past
in the past? his whole one season in houston? people grow, people change. not too mention la russa just didnt like his dad.
There were problems in St. Louis and Toronto.
Gomez (for a full season), Rasmus, and Springer is a very good outfield. If Luhnow gets his closer Astros are good to go.
if Rasmus is worth 15MM caddying for Gomez, how much do you think this just increased the future cost of Gomez? Thank you Astros, from the other MLB teams.
I don’t think he’s worth 16 a year but he wants to retire young, he’s comfortable in Houston and they could trade him after June. It may work out and if it doesn’t, it will be chalked up as a bad signing. Why are people angry about it. It’s not Your team or Your money.
I am kind of surprised how many people think this is bad for the Astros. It was a no brainer that Rasmus would except this offer. I am pretty sure Jeff knew this when he basically forced Colby’s hand in taking the offer. His market dropped to almost nothing when a draft pick is attached to him. Plus he would come no where close to $15.8MM per season on the open market.
From the Astros standpoint it was a great move. The money spent on Colby is unarguably higher than what he is worth, but it’s a one year deal. It does not handcuff the Astros anyway shape or form. They can still go after a top of the line starting pitcher on a multi year deal. All they have to do is defer a little money from this seasons salary to the rest of the contract. No big deal.
The Astros get to keep Colby who was not only a decent performer during the season (and a flat out stud during the playoffs) he was also a great clubhouse presence for the young club.
Such a smart move by Rasmus, next offseason the FA OF market consists of: Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, Josh Reddick and…no one else notable. He will make so much more money next year, as well as getting $15M this year.
If you look at the QO from the perspective of what it actually is its an extension, in extension deals players go for AAV over years, in free agency they target more years over AAV. I doubt the QO will stay around long term though too many owners have turned it into a tool to mess with free agency or just accumulate picks, I’m not sure that was ever its intended purpose I am probably wrong though.
Seems to me the QO is doing more or less what it was designed to do, which is give teams losing a player to free agency a modest advantage in retaining them, either by offering the QO or signing them back longer term. We can argue about whether the teams ought to have that advantage but this was obviously an important enough issue that MLB made it a feature of their collective bargaining with the players. No doubt it will come up again when the current contract expires but history suggests that the compensation system might be tweaked again but it will not go away.
Which is why I think they need two tiers of QO one as it is now and a second that is maybe 10 million and a later round pick attached, which teams would be more comfortable handing out with the expectation of it being signed to say guys like Span or Fister. It very likely could go away in the next CBA it is not set in stone as staying by any means.
Nothing is set in stone of course, but obviously some form of free agent loss compensation is important to the owners, or they would not have made it part of CBA negotiations. Since the demise of the reserve clause the entire negotiation between the players and the owners is over how they divide up the revenue pie. As fans we really don’t have anything to say about how it’s done. I’m simply saying that it seems ownership values this feature of the CBA so while they may well agree to changes, they are unlikely to just let it go away.
One thing this also does for Rasmus is guarantee him a roster spot — most likely a starting spot out of ST — on a team on the rise that figures to make the playoffs next year. No guarantee he would have gotten a better offer elsewhere from a legit contender. He has also burned a few bridges around the league, so his market was that much smaller.