Welcome to the last in-season addition of our 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. We’ve been moving these pieces around since February, and the list continues to change with several players surging.
These rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. David Price. Even back in February, $200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price. The 30-year-old was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his new team. The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014. That contract includes an opt-out that could allow Kershaw to begin a new contract with his age 31 campaign. Since Price is already 30, agent Bo McKinnis may not need to push for such a clause.
2. Jason Heyward. Heyward’s strong season has continued since we last checked in on August 6th. Heyward gets on base, shows a touch of pop, and plays strong defense. It’s a valuable package. Since he turned 26 just last month, Heyward’s will be the rare free agent contract that includes mostly prime-age seasons. An eight-year deal would only take him through his age 33 season. As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted recently, an opt-out clause makes sense here.
3. Justin Upton. Upton hit .266/.382/.539 in 152 plate appearances since we last checked in, putting his oblique and thumb injuries behind him. Upton is one player where an opt-out clause seems especially valuable, because it still seems like he could take his game to another level. He’s a 28-home run guy who could become a 35-40 type, and would benefit from the chance to re-enter the market after three seasons. He could get a bigger deal at that point, since he recently turned 28. That could work out for the team too — sign him to an eight-year deal this winter but only have to pay for age 28-30.
4. Chris Davis. Davis can’t be contained, with 14 home runs in 35 games since we last checked in. He has 42 in all. Davis is five months younger than Yoenis Cespedes, and I’m starting to think he has slightly more earning power. It’s an interesting contrast. Davis seems a better bet for additional 35+ homer seasons, yet his rough 2014 season is hard to completely write off. Cespedes brings more defensive value, though his strong marks this year are out of the ordinary. Davis strikes out more, but walks more too. Both players will be vying for seven-year contracts with mid-$20MM salaries.
5. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes didn’t even crack my top ten in February, and now he’s ascended all the way up to fifth. Even when the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Mets on July 31st, he didn’t seem a good bet to finish with 30 home runs. Then he went and smacked 16 in 40 games for the Mets, and he now has an outside shot at 40 bombs. Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal from December 2013 is a good benchmark for Cespedes, who should get more. Cespedes’ contract was modified in September to allow the Mets to have a shot at retaining him.
6. Zack Greinke. Greinke ranked eighth on this list in February, when a five-year deal in the low-$100MM range seemed reasonable. Sitting on an MLB-best 1.61 ERA through 29 starts, it’s time to seriously consider a six-year contract. That’s a scary proposition, since he’s already 31, but the sixth year maximizes his total even if he backs off on the average annual value. Greinke should be able to get past the six-year, $155MM contract signed by Jon Lester last winter.
7. Alex Gordon. Gordon returned from an eight-week layoff on September 1st, having recovered from a groin injury. He says he feels 100%, and is now serving as the Royals’ leadoff hitter. Since he turns 32 in February, a six-year deal seems like the limit. I wonder if he can push his average annual value up to $25MM, netting $150MM in total.
8. Johnny Cueto. In our May power rankings, I gave consideration to putting Cueto ahead of Price, second overall. A July 26th trade from the Reds to the Royals seemed beneficial to Cueto, who became ineligible for a qualifying offer. Cueto began his Royals stint with a 1.80 ERA over 30 innings, but since then, the wheels have come off. He’s allowed 28 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings, including 48 hits of which eight left the park. His ERA has risen a full run in that time, from 2.46 to 3.47. Perhaps something is wrong physically; you may recall Cueto went 13 days between starts this summer due to a sore elbow.
This story isn’t complete yet. Cueto has three regular season starts left, and the Royals are going to the Division Series. Still, Cueto’s last five starts probably took a seven-year contract off the table, and now I’m wondering whether he’ll match Lester.
9. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a 2.66 ERA in seven starts since we last checked in, in what’s become another typically strong season from the 29-year-old righty. He seems on track to become the first Tommy John survivor to reach $100MM, and may actually pass $130MM on a six-year deal.
10. Mike Leake. Leake’s hold on this spot has grown more tenuous, as the righty spent a few weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury. Leake still has a shot at a five-year deal, as he doesn’t turn 28 until November.
Ian Desmond’s season has been all over the map: he was decent in May, very good in August, and lousy otherwise. There’s no real trend except that it’s his worst season since 2011 despite 17 home runs and counting. I imagine some kind of four-year deal is in order, but this one is hard to peg.
Ben Zobrist is finishing strong, hitting .323/.398/.516 since joining the Royals in a July 28th trade. Since he turns 35 in May, a four-year deal will be the limit. Even that will be risky – it’s not like Victor Martinez’s contract is looking good.
1. Price 7/210M
2. Heyward 10/220M
3. Upton 7/175M
4. Davis 5/110M — Whoever signs him will regret it.
5. Cespedes 6/150M
6. Grienke 5/150M
7. Gordon – 5/115M
8. Cueto – 6/156M
9. Zimmermann 6/150M
10. Leake – 5/80M
I’d rather have Davis at those prices than Cespedes.
Davis is Howard 2.0. Mediocre defense, tons of strikeouts, not a great average hitter. All he really brings is OBP and power. Once one of those skills begin to diminish, all of his value is gone. Not to mention he plays a offensive minded position
Howard is an interesting comp. I could see a monster deal with Davis going south after two years or so. But regarding your projected contracts, I do think he’s in good shape for six years. I also thought Hanley was in good shape for five, so maybe I can’t be trusted!
Howard is a perfect comp. As you mentioned, his 2014 campaign is very hard to write off. I also think his OBP is a bit inflated due to his streaky hitting and pitchers respecting his power and pitching around him.
I think the loss of bat speed as he ages will spark a very dramatic decline. We’ve seen that with Howard over the last few seasons.
Best bet for any GM is to stay as far away from Davis as possible.
I don’t think you have ever actually watched Davis play defense. He is a well above average first baseman and a slightly above average outfielder with a strong arm. Compared to Cespedes, he is a better power hitter, a better on base guy, and a significantly better defender. Cespedes may be a better hitter for average, but that is the only tool he has that is better than Davis.
His dWAR is suspect, fangraphs has him between average and slight above average at 1B using UZR/150.
Obviously you haven’t seen much of Cespedes in the OF this year. Excellent range and a much improved glove to go with the cannon arm. Davis doesn’t come close defensively. Cespedes will also lap Davis in a foot race. He’s a much more complete player.
Davis is a very good defensive 1B. And please don’t quote me flawed defensive statistics. He has noting in common with Howard in the field at all. He is not Carlos Santana or Jose Abreu at 1B – he makes plays.
UZR/150 likes his defense at 1B for the last 2 seasons.
The comparison to Howard is more geared towards what he brings to the plate. That is where he becomes too much of a risk.
someone like the Pirates would love to have someone at first base with mediocre defense.
Good job Brixton!
Let us assume that you have it right with the contracts. Which contract represents the best deals from a team perspective?
Best deal on that list (using your numbers)? Cueto, Grienke, Gordon.
I’m a strong believer in Heyward. I think 6 years of him at what hes capable of from 26-31 years old is worth giving him an extended contract.
One of the reasons I put Gordon lower than some expect is because a fair amount of his value comes from his elite LF defense but you would expect that to diminish after 2-3 years. Rarely is their a guy whos in his mid 30s winning an outfield gold glove. Factor that into the tail end of Heyward’s deal.
I’d stay away from Cespedes, Davis and Grienke personally.
Gordon could turn into Torii Hunter in his later years.
Or he could turn into Jeff Francouer. You just don’t know. No team is gonna commit 25M AAV for 6-7 years based on a ‘could.’
As a Cardinals fan I do not want to commit to Heyward. A lot his defensive value comes from his great athleticism. As he ages, his defensive skills will diminish quite rapidly. When that happens, the offense that he brings to the table will no longer justify the money he is going to receive. His early season struggles in April were pretty awful and have destroyed his overall season numbers. He does draw walks but not a clip that would make me feel comfortable doling out the contract he is going to receive. He’s yet another FA I would stay away from and I hope the Cardinals let him walk.
I agree 110% on Davis and the erratic play of Cespedes makes him highly suspect. The rest of your list is probably close…maybe Zimm at 6/132 and Leake 5/90 but that’s kind of splitting hairs.
Heyward is also a plus on the bases. He’s above-average to elite at every part of baseball. It’s a valuable package.
Who’s going to pay Chris Davis nine figures? So few teams need a first baseman that the one who wants him isn’t going to be stupid enough to bid against itself. Though Boras will try his “left fielder” trick.
Unfortunately, history has shown that someone will give him that contract, if not more. Sandoval, Porcello, Shields, Crawford, Upton… the league is littered with contracts that were stupid the day they were signed and have only gotten worse.
Only one of those you listed is a nine figure deal.
I’m not saying that someone isn’t going to pay him. There’s just no opening at first base for any team with a top 15 payroll besides Seattle. Unless the Yankees want to send Tex away, there’s just not enough demand to get him in the range of $140 million.
The Cardinals have a lot of money to spend and nothing exciting at 1B. If they don’t re-sign Heyward, I could see them checking in on Davis.
Assuming Garcia’s option is picked up and Broxton’s isn’t since it’s a mutual, the Cardinals will have 100 million committed to nine players. Which gives them a little wiggle room to sign Davis, but that doesn’t seem like a great way to spend money unless his price comes down.
Mozeliak won’t do it. Too dangerous.
I really don’t see why they’d go after Davis when they can get a 30 HR bat at 1B for MLB min in Matt Adams. Plus Brandon Moss has another year
Adams does not have 30 HR power. Adams profiles more as a James Loney type hitter.
And you are correct on Moss. Assuming he is not traded or released, the Cardinals do have him for one more year.
Umm, Matt Adams? Not sure what your definition of “exciting” is, but he seems like a cheap Chris Davis, to me.
He has been looking competent in the OF, too. DH is also an option for him. He doesn’t have to fit at 1B.
Little too early to knock Shields’ contract. The rest I think is fair.
As for Davis, there is enough demand for a 1B of his power that someone will give him the money he is seeking. 1B has been a pretty weak position the last few years.
That’s the thing though, there really isn’t that much demand at 1B right now. Most teams with money have them already.
Don’t agree at all. Boras will have 6-10 teams bidding on Davis that have the money. The first 3 that came to my mind…..
Giants – a power LH bat behind Posey, move Belt to LF. Won’t hit 40 HR’s playing home games in that park though.
Angels – they need a strong LH, run-producing bat. He can rotate between 1B and DH with Albert, play some corner OF.
Yankees – can they count on Teixeira staying healthy? He can rotate with Tex at 1B and DH. Got that short RF porch. A perfect player for Yankee Stadium.
And A-Rod goes where? He DHs everyday. You can’t just exclude their most productive hitter.
And when have the Yankees had trouble fitting in highly paid players? Their old veterans get injured all the time. Davis can play 1B, LF, RF. or DH. You think Teixeira , Gardner, Ellsbury (when he’s hurt Gardner plays CF), Beltran and ARod are not going to miss any games in 2016? And Teixeira’s contract expires after 2016 as does Beltran’s.
Albert is not DH’ing. The Angels do desperately need a lefty power threat, but it will be an OF or 3B, not 1B/DH. They’ll probably trade for someone like Bruce or Cargo, and then play in FA for pitchers.
Davis can play LF or RF. And Albert can play some 3B. Scoscia is known for moving some players around defensively.
Right now David Murphy is batting clean-up. That cannot continue. And they are not a team that can afford to give up a couple of prime players/prospects to take on a bat – their roster and farm system are not that deep. They will be in touch with Boras.
Scoscia is creative but there is absolutely, positively, no way that Pujols will play 3rd. He’s barely passable at 1B these days. Given his knees and total lack of mobility there are NO options for Albert except DH and 1B.
As for moving Davis to the outfield … I suspect that all teams will be a little weary of having a guy they pay $100M+ to play out of position. You don’t shell out $25M a year for a guy that could possibly play a different position.
Davis will play 1B. He’ll be paid very well. But he won’t be getting paid by the Angels.
You’re forgetting Davis can play 3b and OF in a pinch
I know I’m supposedly way undershooting here, but I wouldn’t give any more than Cruz was offered last offseason. He’s just so inconsistent
Davis is quite an acceptable left fielder, actually. Not every day, but it works.
Acceptable, fine, but if it’s not every day it’s not a major selling point. He still needs to be marketed as a first baseman.
Price is interesting but how can he get 30 million a year. That is 1 million dollars per start. Assuming 100 pitches per start that is 10 THOUSAND dollars per pitch.
It is much worse if Toronto signs him with the 75 cent Canadian dollar.
$30MM a year for the current version of David Price is a solid bargain! It’s the tail end of that deal that evens it out.
Not for a 30 year old pitcher. No one’s a bargain with the amount of mileage on that arm and his age. $30m is too much to risk one “pop” reducing his value to zero.
I’m talking about what he has done each of the last several years, has easily been worth $30MM per. I do understand his future is not guaranteed.
Good pitching mechanics, solid durability, good track record in any type of park – definitely worth it. He’ll tail off towards the end of the deal but that’s price teams have to pay to get top tier talent. In Price’s case, I can see him still being a productive pitcher towards the end of his deal given his tools. I have to agree with Tim that $30MM as an AAV is fair value. I’m thinking 7 years at least $220 MM. Question now is who gives him that kind of coin? Cubs? Dodgers? Yankees?
Red Sox. Seems like their kind of splash.
Price relies heavily on his fastball. He won’t be able to “reach back” in the coming years to get out of jams any more. He’s dominant now, yes, but he will become the current version of Verlander.
…but he’ll still get overpaid, by some schmuck team.
He doesn’t rely on his fastball as much as he use to in order to dominate. He could turn out to be like Verlander, but I think it is unlikely at least for the next few years.
You two need to look at what Verlander has been doing since he got healthy. “Becoming Verlander” may not be what you think it is.
It is probable that a team could get BOTH Zimmerman and Fister for less of a financial commitment than Price. That would have been a crazy idea in April.
Chris Davis has been inconsistent, in that we have no idea when he’ll get hot, if ever as shown in 2014. I would like to think he gets 4yr 85-90Mil and goes to a AL West team.
Love to see Davis at Coors Field. Rockies have no 1B next year and will likely have loads of cash. He could hit 50 easy.
I think they’d rather just go with Rosario.
I may be in the minority here, but I think the Orioles would be smart to re-sign Davis. The guy has been spectacular since he moved to Camden and has established himself this year as more than a one-hit wonder.
They let a 40+ HR guy walk last year, don’t make the same mistake again. Those guys are rare and valuable these days.
It was a solid article and hard to fault……other then Sobrist should be in the top 10, somewhere. He’s the perfect player for so many teams starting with the Nationals and Cubs.
But the sad thing is, short of Price and Gordon, I think any teams giving those players big bucks for 5 or more years will get burned the majority of the years they hand out. I think Heyward will be fine if he stays with the Cardinals, but playing in the Cardinals system and their atmosphere is heaven for veteran players…..they’re never asked to do anything more then their job, no one expects them to carry the team. I don’t see him doing what he’s done this year if say, he goes back to the Braves.
IMO the best 2014-15 free agent signing based on a player helping his team the most while signing for reasonable money and years – is Kendrys Morales. There will be a Morales this year, and Zobrist may be it.
I agree with you there. This FA class doesn’t get me excited at all. Too much risk involved.
The mid and small market teams cannot afford to pay and chance any of those guys. But the teams with large cash flows will step in……they always do.
When has this ever NOT been the case?
Signing FA’s is inherently risky. The best are players that are usually approaching 30. They will demand 6-8 years. Every team knows that the decline phase really kicks in during their early 30’s. You are paying for peak past production but instead will typically only receive a few years of solid value followed by many years of decline.
Matt Holliday is a perfect example of a long term big money contract working out.
Is he an example, or THE example? Can you think of any others?
Manny Ramirez for the Red Sox. Huge deal at the time and despite the attitude, worth every penny.
The question was “when has this ever not been the case?” Holliday is one good example. A-Rod’s first contract is another good example.
I think that Greinke could record some historic free agency money. The Dodgers play the “money is no object” card and I doubt that they will want to see Greinke going elsewhere. I could easily see them going 6 or 7 years @ over $30 million per year. Teams like the Cubs and Yankees could help push that number up.
Why not? The Dodgers have become the Steinbrenner Yankees.
2 questions come to mind:
1. Is there so much money in the game that all of the Top 4 SPs will get $100M+ each?
2. If so, then why not pay more to get Price (the best) instead of “settling” for Cueto or Zimmerman?
I am not convinced that all four will get what they want.
1. Yes.
2. Because if every team who needs a big pitcher started bidding for 1 guy, the difference between Cueto’s deal and Price’s deal will be more drastic because everyone was driving up Price’s money.
AZ just signed a mega TV deal and need that cleanup guy in RF.
Pollock in 2-hole, Goldy, Cespedes, Lamb and more would be very interesting.
They have Corbin, Bradley, Shipley and Chase as rotation depth, so I hope they go after Cueto with Yeonis.
Gabby Guerrero would do great playing behind Cespedes and grooming his contact skill.
I just don’t think Cespedes will leave the AL unless he thinks this is his last deal. DH helps players like him who’s had soft tissue concerns
I dont know. I value defensive metrics and war, but I think Jason Heyward is ovverrated. His bat is not that special and HD badly timed a catch at the wall Saturday against the reds. I would rather invest in Cespedes or Upton.
Am I alone in thinking that Heyward’s play will earn him his next contract and not his age and defense? Bats get paid but not slightly above average ones just because they happen to be 26. $100 MM? Sure. But he SHOULDN’T get 200 .
Another factor should be inconsistency. This year, Heyward has had 4 good (not great) months. His Braves years had similar ups and downs. Don’t see 8-10 years when you don’t know which Heyward you’ll get. And don’t see $20 million per year for a good (not great) player.
I’m surprised that Greinke is rated so low when he’s a serious candidate for the NL Cy Young and has been pitching lights out all year. I also think Heyward is overrated; I understand the age differential, but Heyward is not the difference-maker that Greinke is.
How any team an give Gordon $20 million a season is beyond me. He’s not a game changer, on the wrong side of 30, and coming off an injury marred season. He’s mediocre. I wouldn’t offer $10 million.