11:44am: The talks between the Mets and Reds regarding Bruce “may have lost momentum,” ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. Cincinnati is “having second thoughts” about the package being proposed by New York, per the report. Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that New York has concerns both with Bruce’s salary and his inconsistencies at the plate.
11:36am: It’s possible that the Mets could add two hitters today, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. In addition to Bruce, the club is pursuing other options. We’ve heard discussion that the team could look at rental players like Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Will Venable, and Martino notes all three as hypothetical possibilities.
9:48am: Rental outfielders are still in play for the Reds, but they won’t move Wheeler for a rental, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). One specific rental that’s still in play for New York is Justin Upton, but Bruce remains their primary focus at this time.
9:22am: The Mets are still working on other outfield options, David Lennon of Newsday tweets.
8:38am: The clubs are reviewing medicals on Bruce and Wheeler, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (Twitter links). He adds that it remains unclear whether other players are involved.
8:11am: The divide between the clubs as of last night was whether or not Wheeler alone was sufficient to get a deal done, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweets.
7:44am: The Mets and Reds continued to work towards a deal that would send outfielder Jay Bruce from Cincinnati to New York, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Reports emerged yesterday indicating that the Mets were indeed pursuing the left-handed-hitting slugger.
There is a growing sense in the industry that something will get done, Rosenthal adds. Though he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, Mets righty Zack Wheeler is said to feature prominently in discussions.
Bruce, 28, is back to posting his typically excellent production at the plate. He’s slashing .257/.341/.486 on the year and also fits the Mets’ desire for future control over a significant outfield addition. While he isn’t really an option in center, as New York is said to prefer, the club could consider utilizing Curtis Granderson as at least a part-time option up the middle while shifting the recently-extended Juan Lagares into a less regular role.
I really don’t see why the Reds would do this. Bruce’s contract is a bargain, he has 2+ years of control, and the Reds are overflowing with rotation options now.
Probable 2016 Rotation:
Bailey
Disco
Lorenzen
Iglesias
Stephensen (Reds #1 prospect – dominating lately in AAA)
On the cusp:
Finnegan
Lamb
Moscot
Fill-ins:
Holmberg
Where does Wheeler fit in? All those players have tons of control as well.
*Stephenson. Did they remove the edit feature?
This trade doesn’t really make sense for the Mets either since their lineup is already left handed heavy, and they already have two hitters that are the same type of hitter as Bruce (Granderson and Duda).
Another Granderson/Duda would be just what the Mets need, since those are the only two players on the roster with OPS+ over 100.
Soon to be three! d’Arnaud is back today. Plus, technically, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe.
I don’t really understand why teams want Wheeler so badly. I like him a lot and want the Mets to keep him (unless they get a good deal), but he won’t even pitch until mid-2016 and probably won’t be fully ‘himself’ until 2017. But then you have to factor in that you don’t necessarily even know what you’re getting with him as he’s still developing.
The Mets already have him, so keeping him isn’t much of a risk, and combining him with what they already have at SP could potentially be incredible. But I’m not sure why other teams seem to really want to take on this risk.
At this point, I’m pretty sure the Reds are looking at 2016, at least, as a rebuilding year, so Bruce’s control is less of a factor. As for where Wheeler fits in, some of those names will fail, some will get injured, and some will be traded.
The Reds are overflowing with back-end rotation options.
Disco, Lorenzen, Iglesias all project as 3-4-5 types. Bailey is fresh off injury, not exactly ace material. Finnegan projects better as a reliever than starter, and it’s optimistic to pencil him in. Stephenson is a great piece with top-end starter potential, but not there yet.
Bruce’s contract is pretty solid, but Wheeler would fill in comparably to Mike Leake.
Rule #1: you can’t have too much pitching. For the Reds’ case, who are looking beyond 2016-17 to compete, youth wins out.
I don’t like Bruce straight up for Wheeler, though.
I completely agree, slasher016. Along with Votto, Phillips, Cozart, and Frazier, I think Bruce should be viewed as a franchise mainstay unless the Reds can get something incredible. Yet another pitcher — and one recovering from Tommy John at that — doesn’t rise to the level of “incredible” in my opinion.
Reds can’t win this year, and I don’t think 2016 looks good either. For a team that is realistically planning to compete no sooner than 2017, moving Bruce for a young arm to contribute in and beyond 2017 makes sense.
Big time overpay if this deal includes Wheeler. Bruce is nothing but mediocre at best outside of Great American Ballpark. Plus that contract will affect future moves for the Mets and block Conforto until 2018 when Grandy and Bruce would expire.
For his career Wheeler has 100 ERA+, meaning exactly average. Bruce’s OPS+ this year is 125, meaning 25% better than league average. Both of those stats factor ballpark, so you can say what you want about his splits, but that’s factored in already.
It’s not what Wheeler did in his first full year, it’s that he has the potential to be an ace like the other 4 young Mets starters.
Bruce, on the other hand, has a career .743 ops away from Cinci. .100 OPS points lower than he has at Cinci. That’s enough to make you hesitate giving up a young controllable potential upper rotation guy when Harvey could possibly walk in a couple yrs. Not to mention how much Bruce’s contract could hinder the Mets moves and block a top prospect in Conforto.
However if you look at his OPS over the past 3 years his home OPS is .785 and on the road is .762. His career OPS is scewed by his first three years in the majors where his home OPS was between .150-.200 points higher.
100 OPS points worth of home-road split is nothing. Completely normal and most hitters have something very similar. The home-road thing is way overblown even in extreme cases like Coors. In lesser cases like this it’s literally nothing.
That’s not how ERA+ and OPS+ work and is a common misunderstanding of the stats. ERA+ is 100*lgERA/pitcherERA then adjusted for context. So while it would be close to say if a pitcher has an ERA+ 120 it doesn’t mean he’s better than 20% of the league but the leagues average ERA is 20 percent higher.
OPS+ is calculated 100* (OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG – 1). Think of it as OBP+ plus SLG+ (minus 100 to get it on that 100-is-average scale). So an OPS+ of 120 really means that the sum of how much better the player’s OBP is than league average, and the sum of how much better the player’s SLG is than league average, add up to 20%. So Bruce’s OPS+ means his SLG and OBP are ten percent higher than league average. I’d say OPS+ is a far better way to tell us what kind of player we have than ERA+ plus is to tell us what kind of pitcher we have.
Maybe they plan on flipping one or two for a hitter? Hell we got Travso and Howard down in the minors. We got winker on the edge of the majors. Yorman Rodriguez. Now we got this kurey nella apparently pretty good loading up on pitching I do think we need some Hitters hell Chapman to the Dbacks might happen and the reds want alot in return wonder if it could be Bradly another pitcher he’s there top prospect.
Makes no sense to get Wheeler. Go after Nimmo or Conforto.
What a downer – from Gomez to Jay Bruce?!?
Wish the Mets just asked the Astros’ doctors about Gomez and executed that trade.
Bruce is batting .247 away from his bandbox home park. The Mets don’t need another sub-250 hitter – especially at the cost of Wheeler.
Batting average really? Is OBP is .337 on the road and .345 at home. Not a big difference there.
Bruce opened up the season batting .181, if you take away his road at bats from April he has been hitting .272 on the road since.
Umm … batting average tends to be LOWER in small ballparks, not higher.
If anything, the Reds should be adding corner outfield options. Winker doesn’t look nearly as ready as everyone thought he would and that’s just left field. Get rid of Bruce and our best RF option is…?
The Reds obviously don’t care who the right field option is. They are in rebuild mode and at the earliest may compete is in 2017.
This just in. The Mets should have appealed the game yesterday because, Upton and Kemp were pulled from the game in the 8th inning and miraculously they batted in the 9th inning???? Can anyone explain this nonsense. Just further proof the Mets get burnt from the umpires over and over again.
furthermore, Imagine if the umpires were a littler more fair with calling balls and strikes for Mets pitchers? I can. Degrom, Harvey and Syndegard would have sub 2 era’s.
If I’m a Mets fan I’d rather trade Montero + a prospect (Nimmo??) for Upton. I think Wheeler can be a good 3 or 4 starter with the Mets. With this current Mets core of starters, I can’t see Montero being any more then a 5 starter/long man. In regards to Bruce vs. Upton: I know Upton is the rental and Bruce is controllable however Upton bats right-handed and the Mets have more then enough Bruce-type players (Granderson, Duda). I think a RH bat is a better fit for them.
Trading Bruce for Wheeler would be a monumentally terrible move for the Reds. Trade a cost controlled all star bat in his prime for a pitcher we don’t need coming off TJ surgery? All while hitting is practically impossible to come by? Stupid.
Bruce is controlled through 2017 after which he will be a free agent. The Reds won’t be able to compete until 2017 at the earliest. Wheeler has the upside of a #2-3 starter, and is a groundball pitcher which is enormous.
I don’t like Bruce for Wheeler straight up, but a young Wheeler is worth more than a more expensive Bruce
Can the Rays get in on this. They have Karns who has been as good as Wheeler and he comes with more control and no current injury. Add a minor league batter and make it happen Rays.
The Mets don’t need a lefty bat. As far as the Reds, the need all the pitching they can acquire. They have no real pitching depth and need a quality starter.
The Reds have a ton of pitching depth, see the first post…
The Reds have a ton of back-end pitching depth*
How many teams have 3 #1s? Let’s be real here. Disco, Lorenzen, Iglesias are mid-rotation pieces. Bailey and Stephenson have TOR stuff.
That’s some quality sphincter sourced information right there, Reds are loaded with pitching.
Not only are the Reds completely loaded with pitching, they have an absolute dearth of offensive power in the minors. Bruce is one of their most productive pieces, is an excellent defensive outfielder, and has very reasonable contract terms for the next two years. It’s insane to dump him for another (injured!) pitching prospect.
I would give the reds Nimmo and Wheeler in return for Bruce and Chapman.
I’m sure you would but there’s absolutely no way the Red would do that. These aren’t pending free agents.
Hope the Mets can maybe expand on this deal and snag Chapman in some way
Niese and Murphy on the block. The Yankees can get involved and we can have a three way trade. Mets get prospects and trade said prospects and Wheeler to the Reds for Phillips, and Chapman.
The trade for Bruce would have been done if, all it were, was Bruce for Wheeler.
The Mets are always opaque, but money is always a driver for them. Maybe they look at Wheeler as damaged goods that they don’t want to pay for–and he will be Arb-eligible for the 2017 season, and his time on the DL recovering is eating up service time.
He’s making like $500k. His time on the DL keeps his Arb price down. If they were worried about money, they wouldn’t be trying to trade him for a guy who makes 25x his salary in Jay Bruce.
I think they don’t like dead money, regardless of the amount. And they may have an insight into his recovery, and perhaps they have doubts, so they flip him for Bruce, who can always be traded again. Bruce costs but can play, and he can be bundled with someone else. Wheeler is a asset–he’s just not an asset that anyone can accurately value, or use right now. This time next year, his recovery (or problems with it) would become clearer, and maybe he wouldn’t merit a Bruce
Good points. I fully expect them to play Cuddyer (regardless of his actual performance) full time both this and next year for this very reason.
This would 100% vindicate the Mets. There’s a reason MIL sold Gomez at his lowest value in years. If the Mets get Bruce, it proves that they were willing to spend money.
I’m not sure that vindicates anything. Houston has a history of finding medical defects. And the prospect haul for Mil was pretty good. Fangraphs says “another team in the race has determined Gomez should be able to help them. That team is paying a lot for the privilege.”
Mets do what they do. They have made some good trades over the last few years, some good signings, and some odd ones. Generally they are on the uptick.
So, if this goes through, they’ll have four corner OFs (when Cuddyer comes back) in Cuddyer, Conforto, Granderson, and Bruce. Cuddyer/Bruce/Granderson would be a horror show in the outfield, and it also leaves Lagares and Conforto on the outside looking in. You’d have to do a bit of maneuvering to find time for Lagares/Conforto (unless you just don’t play Cuddyer) the rest of this season and all of next season. I don’t get it.
Bruce is an excellent right fielder — plays his position well and has a cannon for a throwing arm. If this horrible deal goes through, the Mets will be fine if they don’t play him in center.
Yeah, I’m more worried about Granderson in CF and Cuddyer in LF.
What if the Reds traded Bruce and Byrd for conforto and nimmo. Bruce is controlled through 2017 and Byrd potentially in 2016 if his option vests. This would give the mets two power bats from each side of the plate (Bruce a lefty and Byrd a righty).
This would vastly improve the Mets playoff chances this year and next and allow them to keep their young stud starters intact. I like it from both sides. Allows the Reds to rebuild and the Mets to win in the near future with their young controllable starters.
HAHAHA no
That’d be a travesty of a trade for the Mets. As a Reds fan, I’d love that.
Mets have to give something to get something…Bruce is valuable and is controlled for 2.5 seasons. Byrd is a vast improvement over what the mets already have this year as well. Getting an injured Zach Wheeler is decent but I think the Reds can do better.
Byrd would have nowhere to play. You have Conforto, Granderson, Cuddyer, and Lagares. Throw in Bruce and there’s no room for Byrd.
How’s Cuddyer and Lagares workin’ out?
Pretty amazing that the Giants traded 6 years of Wheeler for .5 year of Beltran, while the Mets are trading 4 years of Wheeler for 1.5 of Bruce. We’ll see what other pieces are involved though
So the Reds are looking for a rental outfielder? I guess after the romping of my buccos last night, they are all in now.
I like this trade aside from Jay Bruce batting left-handed in a lefty dominant line-up as far as production is concerned. He has a higher OBP than Upton right now and has 3x the controllability than Upton. I would have definitely loved Gomez and didn’t particularly like dealing him for Santana though at the time, Mets faithful were pretty ecstatic to get him. If it’s Wheeler for Bruce straight up then I like it. I see a lot of people ripping on Wheeler but at 25 years old, there’s still upside. One bullet dodged is dealing with Scott Boras in the Gomez trade.
Like the addition of Bruce, a legitimate power bat who is still very young and could very well still have finest mlb service years ahead of him.. But if it’s at the expense of wheeler not so thrilled. Now if sandy can somehow pull off acquiring Bruce and upton for wheeler and some other lesser known prospects I thing this would be an ideal situation.. Mets honestly are 2 bats from serious contention.. Add in d’arnaud and possible wright returns.. You would have a very formidable lineup and shutdown rotation heading into the playoffs..
Get ready met fans… Sandy about to get you 2 more bats.. Here comes Bruce and cespedes / upton.. Chapman too..
What makes you say that?
Pure speculation.. The mets have the pieces to get something like this done.. The chapman addition I don’t realistically see happening.. But I can easily see mets getting Bruce and either rental player.. If I’m sandy I’d give an awful lot for Bruce and chapman..
If the Reds are so loaded with prospects (pitching and hitting) why are they terrible?
Phillips is not a keeper. He’s the one guy I would move.
They’re not loaded with hitting prospects. They need a lot more. Why aren’t they competing? Primarily injuries. #2 starter, catcher and SS have been hurt basically the entire year. The bullpen has been downright terrible outside of Chapman and Hoover.
Phillips is still very good defensively, while being miscast as a leadoff hitter. They overpaid him, and that is why he is still around. Contract aside, he is a serviceable bat at the bottom of the lineup and will help any defense. The Bullpen is a mess and the lack of hitting with runners in scoring position are huge issues. They have lost a number of games late, and seem to be in a lot of close games overall. It is a rough way to play.
Glad the Reds are having second thoughts. Maybe Walt reads MLBTR?
+1
The Reds are a quality arm or two in the bullpen away from contending (Provided the young pitchers progress as expected and Mesoraco recovers). They do not need a complete overhaul. What they have done with two expiring contracts has been very good so far.
#LOLMets
This is great news, unless the Mets cave and give the Reds Conforto and/or Nimmo.
Mets just need to get the bat already. Seems like they’re being extremely stingy and giving other teams headaches when trying to do trades. I’m a Mets fan and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up getting burned and left with nothing the next couple hours.
Mets lost momentum. Isn’t that their life story?
Braves could trade Andrelton Simmons for Zack Wheeler.
Oh, lost momentum on that deal. We live in a different world than we did 15 seconds ago. We want Zack Wheeler and David Putney!
If the Mets had real owners, they would just bite the bullet and make a package deal to the Rockies for Reyes and Carlos Gonzalez. They are expensive 2016 and 2017, but the Mets pitching is cheap until then. Trading for CarGo and Reyes gives them 2 years to develop hitters to replace them cheaply, when Harvey, DeGrom, and Syndergaard start to get more expensive.
Mets lineup
SS) Reyes
2b) Murphy
LF) CarGo
3b) Wright, once healthy
RF) Granderson
C) D’Arnaud
1b) Duda
CF) Lagares