The Braves have agreed to a seven-year extension with shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the club announced today via press release. The Relativity Sports client receives a $58MM guarantee.
Simmons, 24, will now be under contract with Atlanta through the 2020 season. The deal covers all of his arb-eligible years and includes two seasons of free agent eligibility. With just 1.125 years of service heading into 2014, Simmons was a possible (but by no means certain) Super Two player for 2015.
Placing in the same service class as recent extension signees like Julio Teheran, Martin Perez, Jose Altuve, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt and Madison Bumgarner, Simmons' guaranteed money tops them all. Indeed, Simmons now sets the high mark for all extensions of players with between one and two years of service, topping Ryan Braun's eight-year, $45MM deal from back in 2008.
Last year, his first as a regular, Simmons sported a .248/.296/.396 line in 658 plate appearances, with 17 home runs and 6 stolen bases. While his hitting stats do not jump off the page, Simmons' defensive reputation is nearly unmatched. Baseball-Reference credited him with a remarkable 5.4 dWAR, resulting in an overall value of 6.8 wins above replacement. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Simmons would increase his value significantly moving forward, of course, if he can retain his power and get on base at a stronger clip.
Simmons gets a $1MM signing bonus. He will make the following annual salaries: $1MM (2014), $3MM (2015), $6MM (2016), $8MM (2017), $11MM (2018), $13MM (2019), and $15MM (2020).
It has surely been a stunning last few weeks for a Braves organization that entered the offseason with a host of talented young players and questions about whether they could all be retained. Added to the recent extensions for Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward (the latter of which did not extend control), Atlanta has now committed just over $280MM to its existing roster in just over two weeks' time.
Though Atlanta reportedly suffers from one of the game's least favorable TV deals, it has signed on for a new ballpark (and surrounding development) deal that promises new revenue. Indeed, GM Frank Wren said recently that expected income from that new endeavor was critical in funding the team's extensions.
Samuel Whitmore tweeted last night that the Braves were set to agree to a seven-year deal with Simmons. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted the contract value. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported the annual breakdown via Twitter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
All aboard the extension train!
Frank Wren is just doing all this so he can sign himself to an extension and no one will notice
The Braves already extended Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez yesterday.
Frank Wren signed one yesterday…
I guess Nigel didn’t notice…
awkward
Old news.
I guess Nigel didn’t notice…
Wow, Braves going lock up crazy with their core guys. This guy has a pure gold glove, but I wonder how his offense will shape up as he fills out. So far the only extension I haven’t loved is the Julio Teheran one. I just didn’t think that was necessary. Good on ya Braves.
I’m glad they extended Teheran. He’s got the potential to be a expensive pitcher down the road.
I’m glad they extended Teheran. He’s got the potential to be a expensive pitcher down the road.
The Teheran extension was probably my favorite one. Gives the braves cost certainty during his arb years and locks him up at a good price for potentially two years at a good price, with a cheap buyout on that second year. This guy is already a solid #2 pitcher at just one full season so we could be could be getting a great deal on those FA years. There’s always risk with injury, unexpected performance decline, etc. but I like the way it weighs against the reward
Not really a risk with injury that everyone talks about. Teams have insurance policies on all their players. The most they have to cover is 25%
Contracts are insured, yes. If a player literally can’t play anymore and has to retire, the team isn’t on the hook for the full amount. But that almost never happens with guys Teheran’s age. The risk here is that he blows a shoulder or needs Tommy John surgery, comes back, and isn’t the same pitcher anymore.
Not True.
Not every player is insured, and every insurance policy is different. It all depends what the team thinks in necessary.
Offensively I suspect his floor is Alex Gonzalez and his ceiling is Martin Prado.
Nice job Braves locking up their young players. I guess we’ll see if it was a wise move in a few years. They’re either going to be good for many years or be saddled with expensive average players down the road. My guess is they’ll be pretty good for the next 5-7 years.
Lol! I can understand what you’re trying to say, but there’s nothing (nothing!) in Simmons’ 1st full season that doesn’t make you leap for joy at this extension, especially when you see what Elvis Andrus secured with TEX. And he already looks better than Andrus (who also came from ATL’s system).
I think Adrus’ deal was all free agent years whereas Andrelton’s are mostly pre-arb and arb years.
A sub-.300 OBP doesn’t make me leap for joy. Nor does his sub .250 avg. and sub-. 700 OPS. He’s great with the glove but his 6.8 WAR (baseball reference) last season is almost exclusively tied to his glove. Again awesome glove work, young guy, but $58 million to a guy with a career .304 OBP at the major league level seems like quite the overpay. For comparison Andrus (who was younger but people seem to forget that) hit .279/.347/.361 for age 22 and .286/.349/.378 at age 23 which is what Simmons was this last season. I would have been much happier with an extension to Minor, Medlen, or Beachy.
The man saved 60 runs in 200 innings. Who cares about his OBP in his first full season. Go back and look at his minor league numbers and you’ll see that he never hit more than 6 HR in 3 yrs and had a .352 OBP, yet he hit 17 HR in his first full season, and his OBP suffered. That should steady out with more of a permanent batting spot, which he didn’t have much of 2013.
I hope you’re right. But $58 million is a lot to assume. If he doesn’t have a rebound to his OBP the contract will look like a massive overpay.
What?!?! Go take a look at the reactions page for this signing and look at what some of the “experts” are saying – not that they’re the final word. His defense really is worth the contract, especially if he gets Super Two status, which is a possibility. He doesn’t have to have a high OBP for this contract to worth it. He averaged a .352 OBP in the minors, but he probably won’t have that in the majors, though he’s hitting for a lot more power. More than likely, expect him to continue to be a contact hitter. Like has been said, he continues to grow offensively, as he did in 2013, this could be easily be major savings for ATL.
The “experts” on the reactions page all assumed two things that made this deal look like good value for the Braves. First, is that Simmons was going to be a Super Two player. Second, and more importantly for this discussion, that his bat will get better and make his value drastically increase. If the second point happens then awesome this will be a steal. If it doesn’t then the Braves are screwed and this will look like a bit of an overpay.
No, you’re wrong. They’re seeing Simmons as having a baseline of having the best defense in MLB at one of the most important positions. If he does improve with his bat – which there’s good reason to believe that considering his power and his history of good AVGs – then that’s icing on the cake.
What you’re overlooking is that Simmons – if he went to arbitration – has the defensive metrics that could have rewritten how defense is valued through the arb process. It’s a shame we won’t get to see what kind of value there is, but I think you’re undervaluing his defense.
The man saved 60 runs in 200 innings. Who cares about his OBP in his first full season. Go back and look at his minor league numbers and you’ll see that he never hit more than 6 HR in 3 yrs and had a .352 OBP, yet he hit 17 HR in his first full season, and his OBP suffered. That should steady out with more of a permanent batting spot, which he didn’t have much of 2013.
You said it yourself, he was worth 6.8WAR, sure it is tied to his glove. But what is different about a guy who’s value is tied to his bat? The risk is there for both skill sets to disolve.
Defensive skills disappear/regress on the whole more quickly then offensive skills. Therein lies the worry. You’re right that however he puts up the WAR its still awesome. But he is due for a regression on the defensive side of the ball. That is what worries me.
I disagree on both points. There is nothing to indicate that he is due for a regression. Could 2013 have been his best defensive year? Of course, but that wouldn’t be a regression. Additionally, what are you going on that defensive regresses faster? I’ve seen no proof of that, but I see quite often guys that have a stellar offensive year and then never live up to that preformance again. Take B.J. Upton for example in 2007. Plus, opposing teams adjust to other players’ offensive skills to take advantage of weaknesses behind the plate, which increases the odds of offensive issues.
Plus, the odds of significant regression prior to age 30 in either skill are quite slim.
I think he is due for a regression just because of how historically good he played. I think regression will happen, the question becomes how much. Obviously he is a outstanding defensive SS so his regression might be nominal. Defensive regression happens earlier because one can not simply generate greater range or speed at their position. But a player at the plate, especially a smart player with a good eye and understanding of pitchers, can start to anticipate pitches a bit more and start their swing earlier to compensate for their declining lack of bat speed and twitch muscles. I’m hoping that his defensive regression is very small and his bat picks up. I just think that for one great year, it seems like quite the overpay. I really hope I’m wrong cause he seems like a really exciting player.
You can get the same kind of defensive growth as well, the longer a player is at a position the better they can get at shifting in the field to different players, routes to the ball, and over comfort on the field at their position.
Possibly, but it is significantly less likely.
This is where we disagree, if Simmons was an outfielder for example that relied heavily on his speed, then I would agree with you.
But Simmons shows great instinct in setting up based on where the pitch is going/how the batter is reacting. These are not skills that regress much. He also has tremendous arm strength that allows him to throw the ball very quickly, which could degrade as he ages, but not until he is on the other side of 30.
Unless he turns in Chuck Knoblauch and suddenly can’t throw the ball where he wants to, he should age very well. And even Knoblauch didn’t implode until post 30.
Excellent news for Braves fans. The team is finally taking the leap into the 21st century by locking up young, homegrown talent early in their careers. This should ensure that the Braves are competitive for years to come.
Rumors:
Ervin Santana signed with Tampa Bay….2 years….32 millions!
The fact that the Rangers offered Mike Olt for Simmons last year tho
And yet they haven’t extended their best player in Heyward….. makes no sense.
Best Player?
Heyward needs to prove himself this season before we give him a huge extension, and he will,
Heyward hasn’t proven himself? a 16.5 career WAR isn’t proving himself? Yet Freddie Freeman who has had ONE GOOD SEASON gets an extension and it’s a great contract?
No, 5th in MVP is not a “good season”. It’s an incredibly great season. And it’s all about trajectory. Injuries or luck, JHey hasn’t had the benefit of an upwards trajectory from bursting on the scene. They want to lock him up – and have approached him multiple times in the past – but it’s difficult to come to an agreement with a player’s reps when he hasn’t had the kind of consistency and upward trajectory to make an accurate financial assessment. That’s why the 2 years are needed.
Play hard, don’t miss a lot of time. Put up some big numbers. And you’ll get paid.
Look at Freeman’s previous seasons. 0.7 and 1.8 WAR. Yes, last year he was good, but he needs to put that up for a couple more years. Wheras if you look at Heyward, he posted one win less than Freeman while being injured and playing in 109 games. Heyward has been good every year. Freeman has been good in one year and pretty average in his other two. But it’s Freeman who gets the 100 million extension.
And this is why WAR shouldn’t be used. If you think Heyward is the Braves best player (remember, consistency makes a player too) then I’m not even going to bother to debate it. You’re just simply wrong.
Hey, at least I can provide stats to backup my argument. You are saying that you’re right just because you’re you.
How bout Freddie Freeman having a better year than Heyward has ever had. A top 5 finish in the MVP voting. Jason Heyward hasn’t even batted .280 in a season yet. Hasn’t hit .270 since his rookie season. Struck out 152 times in his last full season. Couldn’t stay healthy last year.
Being hit in the face by a pitch. Totally Heyward’s fault. Batting average is a terrible stat. Also, MVP voting is totally arbitrary. It’s like gold glove voting. How many of those does Jeter have yet anyone with half a brain knows that Jeter is quite possibly one of the worst defensive SS ever, in the history of baseball. Heyward, even with the injuries has but up great numbers WAR included. Not to mention he played out of position during parts of the second half this past season in CF. By your argument then for a lot of the 2000’s Chipper Jones should have stayed healthier for him to justify his hefty contract. Take a seat champ.
Batting average is a terrible stat? Haha you nerdds make me laugh. Don’t cry cause I knocked your precious WAR stat. Jeter is not one of the worst defensive SS’s ever. He had a terrific jump throw that most SS’s out there can’t even make. I’m not saying the injuries are Heywards fault, but they happened. And he hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant a long term deal. Hence why the Braves haven’t offered him one at a time when they’re giving EVERYONE them. Don’t cry cause I knocked your favorite player. I didn’t even knock him. He just doesn’t deserve a long term extension yet and the Braves GM agrees with me. Plus he plays RF, the easiest position in the game to play. Chipper got those big deals cause of what he had done for the franchise. Not to mention he was a great hitter, and a very good one in the Postseason.
Batting average is a terrible stat. That is why GM’s don’t use it to evaluate players. Jeter is a terrible SS. His jump throw was needed because he was so consistently out of position/could barely get to balls hit his way. Heyward isn’t my favorite player. But more importantly, why do you hate player evaluations that give you more information? Every team in baseball uses sabermetrics extensively. Oakland, Tampa, Texas, Boston, and St. Louis use them with great effect. Lastly, RF is not the easiest position to play on the field. LF is. Hence why the worst defensive outfielders on a team are always in LF. The ball tails towards you in LF and tails away from you and towards the foul pole/seats in RF. If RF was the easiest, then why, when he played in the outfield, did Gattis play LF instead of RF. Seriously, have you ever watched a baseball game?
Oh I’ve clearly watched a lot more than you. And played too. And RF, to me, was the easiest. I preferred to have the bail tail, instead of being a line drive right at me in left over my head which is the toughest ball to field IMO. It’s funny how wrong I am yet the Braves GM, a guy who you say uses all your sabremetrics stuff you’re throwing out, agrees with me to wait on Heyward. Advanced stats do not tell how a hitter is going to hit in the Postseason, which to me, is the most important thing. You must be an A’s fan. Just happy to be comepetitive but not actually win anything.
Okay so explain to me these two things then. If RF is so easy then why was Gattis always put in LF? And secondly if advanced stats are so wrong why does every team in baseball use them extensively?
Both corner outfield spots are the easiest to play in the game. There’s not that much of a difference. I found out, from PLAYING, that RF, to ME, was easier. I was more comfortable there. Again, a line drive hit right at you over your head is the hardest ball to field. I preferred the ball to tail.
With advanced stats, I’m not saying don’t use em. But they aren’t the end all be all. This guys just saying sign him long term cause of his WAR. That’s crazy to me. Freese’s advanced stats are probably bad, but he basically single handedly won the Cardinals the WS. Isn’t that more important than WAR? Advanced stats don’t measure hustle, heart, work ethic, if you’re a true baseball player or not (which you would know who’s a real player if you ever played. Not saying you haven’t, but again, you’ll know what I’m talking about if you’ve played.). Is Matt Carpenter really the 6th best position player last year? Cause he is according to WAR. Nice, solid player, but come on. If you were building a team, he wouldn’t be the 6th pick. No way.
LF is typically a bit lower on the defensive spectrum, so should be easier. That said, it really depends on the ballpark. All parks are different, and many right fields are way easier.
I agree. Definition has to do with the ballpark. I probably got a little lazy with my assumption considering I’m a Yankees fan and that I always preferred playing RF over left.
WAR does have problems, one significant one is that it can fail to account for an inconsistent showing in UZR. That said though avg is not a terribly great stat. It is very liable to a impossibly lucky babip year. And doesn’t show everything. AVG is supposed to show how often a player doesn’t produce the out, but it fails to account for walks, which are very important.
Obviously BA isn’t a top notch stat. But for a guy like Jeter, having a .312 lifetime BA is a darn impressive stat to me. A one season Batting Average obviously doesn’t tell much of a story. But if guy has .300 career BA in the postseason, I find that very impressive.
Yes, .312 is impressive. Also sample sizes is important for postseason. Jeter has 650 ab so that is impressive. Other players that have 10, 40, even 100 spread out over a 5+ year career, I don’t put much stock in.
OBP is generally more important to a team though. A single is more valuable than a walk, but the gap isn’t very big. Fans like hits, but when you should be looking at players that aren’t going to be making outs, rather than the player that has those flashy hits, but is swinging at everything. Also, players that have good plate discipline tend to have better late careers. If you swing at everything and lose your bat speed pitchers are going to give you junk.
Being hit in the face by a pitch. Totally Heyward’s fault. Batting average is a terrible stat. Also, MVP voting is totally arbitrary. It’s like gold glove voting. How many of those does Jeter have yet anyone with half a brain knows that Jeter is quite possibly one of the worst defensive SS ever, in the history of baseball. Heyward, even with the injuries has but up great numbers WAR included. Not to mention he played out of position during parts of the second half this past season in CF. By your argument then for a lot of the 2000’s Chipper Jones should have stayed healthier for him to justify his hefty contract. Take a seat champ.
Refer to my comment above
Yes, there’s a risk. But again, upwards trajectory. Rather than going by the market trend of paying for what a player has done, ATL is paying for what they think a player WILL DO. Again, risk involved. But they know their players better than anyone, which speaks volumes about the scouts that not only identified these stars when they weren’t that, but the ability to identify these players in limited MLB time, dismissing the criticisms and putting trust in the fact that going by their makeup, they can improve. Freeman shows that. JHey does too, but his slumps have inspired the same sort of confidence so far. It’s not a swipe against JHey, but it’s also the fact that 1B usually get overpaid.
PS ellsbury played hardand put up big numbers but missed alot of time. He still got paid.
Sure, but there is a difference between an extension and a FA signing – especially when the checks are coming from a Steinbrenner (which is Latin for “overpay”).
Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552/.928 32HR 105RBI in 2011 has stolen 72 bases in a single season. Hit .298/.355/.426/.781 in his walk year lead the league in SB for the 3rd time with 52 SB in 2013. So to say the least that is a terrible comp.
Heyward has played below his potential and expectation thus far. You have to remember he was the most highly touted prospect coming to the majors. So far he has battled injuries and been pretty inconsistent.
That being said, Heyward has still been really good and he is going to have a massive season in 2014. Top 10 in MVP. The Braves will give him a huge extension in 2015.
What year has he battled injuries outside of last year? Also how has he not lived up to expectations? His rookie year was good, and he was great in 2012 and would have been better this year if he had not been injured. Are you expecting him to be Mike Trout or something? a 16.5 career WAR in 532 games is pretty good if you ask me.
Hate to break it to you but WAR is not the end all be all to a debate.
Never said it was, but it is the best overall stat for brief analysis.
Analysis should never be brief. You can’t look at one number and say a guy is great or not. That’s ridiculous.
Never said I did. I use other stats as well, WAR is just the most convenient for a quick reference.
How bout 6 for 40 in the postseason with 16 K’s and 1 BB. Postseason #’s are pretty important right?
well seeing as the postseason accounted for maybe 1/20th of his at bats this year, it’s not a big deal. I guess Trout sucks because he has never made the playoffs.
It’s not that the Braves don’t want to pay Heyward. By all indications he was priority #1, and they could only come to an agreement on 2 years. From what I have read, it seems that he wants to put up one fully healthy really good season before signing an extension, or he wants to be paid as if he has already done so.
Honestly, if I could sign him for Freeman money/yeas for the FA seasons, I would do it yesterday. I’d bet the Braves would too–ideally they would extend him for $20-22 mil per FA season and have the contract expire when he’s 30. That way he still hits FA at a pretty young age, and can cash in with a big deal.
Injuries in 2009 in the minors, 20 games in 2010, 34 games in 2011, 58 games in 2013. So yeah every year but 2012 is your answer
UZR is inconsistent year to year, which showed on his WAR in 2012. His batting stats for that season were really not that spectacular.
Heyward has been a top 10 OF since he got called up. Hes been plenty good.
Heyward’s WAR comes from defense at a corner OF spot. He had an identical stat line as Stephen Drew. Without that last 20 days of being possessed he was hitting .200. You don’t give a guy 20MM for that. The same way you don’t pay Justin Upton for his first month of last season.
He signed a 2 year contract already. He more than likely won’t sign an extension, because his value isn’t where he wants it to be, and the Braves aren’t quite yet convinced he can stay healthy for a full year, because that’s been an issue. The 2 year contract allows them to make sure he’s definitely worth the big contract by the time he’s ready for FA.
Plus, I believe his representation is believing that free agency is going to be better for him, and will want to take him there in a couple years, but we’ll know more after this year.
It takes two to tango, Eric. You think the Braves didn’t offer something longer than two years? Heyward is only two years away from free agency, and my guess is his agent advised him that he’d be better off waiting because he’s already viewed as a very promising, slightly injury-prone player. If that continues, his value won’t decrease. He can only help himself by playing out the next two seasons and taking his chances in free agency.
Well I’m not complaining. I want him to come to Boston, it just confuses me why he wasn’t locked up longer and earlier.
If you were a Braves fan, you’d know they tried.
Meh
Heyward is JD Drew without that one mammoth season
Great when healthy, which is about a quarter of his playing days
it depends what standard you want to use, but you can easily make the argument that Simmons is the Braves best, most valuable player. He just put up nearly a 7 WAR season, something Heyward has never come close to, especially not this past year. Personally, im not a WARmonger, but there you go.
It all depends on what kind of WAR you use. I use fWAR because I feel it’s the most accurate measurement, and according to it Simmons put up a 4.7 WAR. I assume you’re using baseball reference WAR, Simmons bWAR is inflated because of his humongous dWAR. He is due for defensive regression, just because logic says you don’t put up one of the greatest defensive seasons in history twice in a row. I’m not saying that the Simmons extension is bad. I’m just saying Heyward deserves one more than anyone.
I’m beginning to think you are Heyward in disguise. Heyward needs to prove himself before he cashes in.
Also, I don’t think the Braves should extend him. I think they should trade him in 2015, at the deadline.
I don’t really like him for us long term.
Don’t understand the at the deadline part. Not that I really want to him trade, but if I did I would trade him prior to next season preferably this season at the deadline if his numbers are up to maximize his value. Especially if Gattis was hitting well and Bethancourt was deemed ready.
Trade deadline = better haul from a team who needs that one last piece.
Not during his last year of control when they won’t be able to extend a QO. Sure if they are out of contention in 2015 and have no common ground, but I really can’t see this happening.
Yeah, defense is the biggest part of Simmons’ value. The bad thing is, it can’t reliably be measured, so that’s why I say “You can make an argument”…
Id really like to see Heyward extended like the others. I wouldn’t say he’s more deserving of it though. He’s on a team with alot of good players.
I think it is more so because Heyward has already priced himself out of the Braves range. Sad as it is to say.
They tried too actually but he turned down an extension in 2012.
I would guess they try to sign him to one after the year if he has a good year, but i dont think he accepts.
He will be the hardest to keep.
Quit beating this dead horse. Heyward doesn’t want to sign one. It’s that simple. They’ve tried two years in row. He wants to put himself in position for the biggest payday possible. They’ve said so. If Heyward didn’t have a say in the matter, he would’ve been locked up a long time ago.
Wow! Wren, you already got an extension. You don’t need to prove yourself.
As a Braves fan, this is the best extension so far.
He’s an amazing defender (saving 60 runs in just over 200 games – wow), who somehow, may still improve on defense. I don’t see it with his bat, but if he’s averaging 5+ dWAR a year – you can leave your bat in the dugout.
hard to improve when your not only considered the best in the mlb, but also just turned in the best defensive season all time.
He has pretty solid contact skills, just got caught up in trying to upper cut everything last season in an effort to hit everything out of the park. Should be an above average hitter if he can cut that out. Maybe similar to Martin Prado. That’s probably his ceiling. Hopefully he can get closer to that next season. Just have to wait and see. Either way, he’s probably the most entertaining fielder I’ve ever seen, and that includes Andruw Jones in his prime.
Another great deal locking up a player in their prime years ages 24-31 seasons without breaking the bank. He will only continue to get better offensively and is already one of the best shortstops defensively today.
Beware–Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro might make you think differently.
Gotta throw Jose Iglesias in there too
Except the difference there is Simmons is defense first, he hasnt already peeked offensively like those two.
Yeah, no.
I read your statement as arguing Andrus and Castro are in the conversation for best def SS. I believe you are saying their extensions have not worked out as well as orginally thought?
Yep.
One of? No, THE best defensive SS today, and perhaps ever, if he keeps it up.
Crickets from the folks who were critical when I said Simmons would also get extended.
Simmons had one of the greatest defensive seasons in the history of baseball last year! great news. His defense alone is worth every penny.
Minor on deck?
I don’t think any team has had a better offseason than Atlanta. Sure the Yanks and other teams got more new players, but Atl is going to be very good for a very long time.
I guess the Braves were determined to get all their extensions finalized at the same time, because otherwise the timing seems odd to me. Obviously he’s a great defensive shortstop, but he put up the best dWAR of all-time last season and that isn’t likely to repeat. His value next offseason is much more likely to be lower than higher. Why not wait?
Except not, because if you watch him, he is that good defensively, and he should get better offensively.
I agreed that he’s good, but defensive WAR is probably the most volatile stat there is. I don’t know that anyone is a true-talent, every-year putting up the best defensive WAR season of every time player. It’s just not that likely. And he could get better offensively, but his approach leads to a high infield fly % so it’s far from a sure thing.
Not saying they shouldn’t have extended him, I just don’t understand how they don’t benefit much more from waiting a year. The arbitration process doesn’t exactly highly value defensive WAR, historically.
He makes a lot of contact, so if he has a big BABIP season, he’s probably a lot more expensive next year, even if his dWAR falls by 1/2.
How many players have their best season in their first full season in the pros? Not many. Why would you think that a talent like his couldn’t be better especially knowing that he’s not fully matured physically?
17 HR/one of the best def seasons ever in his first full season. How much is Stephen Drew asking for?
I mean, it’s not like he’s that young. He’s 24. That’s maybe a few years away from his offensive peak, but defense tends to peak early so he’s likely to be at his best in that area right now.
And Stephen Drew isn’t…especially relevant? Simmons is 5 years from free agency, that’s an immense difference in terms of how the market works. (Also, Drew doesn’t seem to be especially overwhelmed with offers, at present.)
Drew is relevant now because that’s what a shallow SS market looks like now. Sure, it won’t be that way when Simmons was supposed to hit FA, but SS is always a shallow in terms of talent depth.
And you’re right in terms of his defense, but though he has unbelievable range, he still could lose a few steps and be the best SS def with his arm – he grew up pitching and was readily clocked at 95+ MPH – hands and footwork.
Simmons defense isn’t likely to decay unless he has injuries. He doesn’t rely on speed, but rather amazing instincts and a arm that many pitchers would kill for. Some of the best defensive SS in history like Ozzie & Ripken had their best defensive seasons well into their careers. When talent evaluators and the defensive stats agree on a guy, he just might be that historically good defensively. Also, his low 2013 BABIP and age suggests that he might have offensive improvement left.
I mean, it’s not like he’s that young. He’s 24. That’s maybe a few years away from his offensive peak, but defense tends to peak early so he’s likely to be at his best in that area right now.
And Stephen Drew isn’t…especially relevant? Simmons is 5 years from free agency, that’s an immense difference in terms of how the market works. (Also, Drew doesn’t seem to be especially overwhelmed with offers, at present.)
Big gamble for 2 years of FA
Gamble is pitching and hitting. Fielding doesn’t slump. They just locked up the best defender at the most important position on the field.
He was already locked up for 5 yrs…why guarantee 58mil
Especially when Simmon’s best skill, otherwordly defense, doesn’t pay in arbitration.
But record setting defense paired with 20-25 homer power at a defensive premium position does though.
Easy there, he’s not going to hit 20-25 hrs on the regular.
I’m generally pretty pessimistic, but I can easily see Simba averaging 20. He hit 17 his first full season after only hitting 6 in the first 3 months. He has strong power potential, maybe not elite, but definitely has the potential for 20.
I’m generally pretty pessimistic, but I can easily see Simba averaging 20. He hit 17 his first full season after only hitting 6 in the first 3 months. He has strong power potential, maybe not elite, but definitely has the potential for 20.
who knows, he had a surge in ISO% second half.
You are correct about defense not paying in arb. The other side of that coin is that his representatives would make the case to the arbitrator that his defense is historic (same argument Kimbrel would have made in arb). So in a historic situation, it’s more of a roll of the dice in arb.
If a WAR of 1 is worth $5M, and Simmons continues to put up similar numbers in regards to offense and defense, Braves are going to get roughly $164M valule for nearly 1/3 the price.
1 WAR is probably worth $6-7M after this offseason, thanks to the huge contracts handed out to free agents. This year’s inflation is huge, but not surprising given the fact that every team just received a $25M bump in revenue.
-C
I don’t think so. I think he’d win in arbitration hearings, and they found common ground. I’m happy w/ it.
Roughly $8M per Gold Glove. Yesshh please
Man the Braves are getting stuff done! Must be cool to be a Braves fan right now.
Cool isn’t the world brochacho. Congrats on the Homer Bailey extension 🙂
Know whats not cool? Being a Nats fan. The day after we learn the floor for a Zimmermann extension is 6/$105 and that Desmond turned down a 7/$85-$90 extension we have to watch the Braves extend another guy.
You can still smile every 5th day when you watch Fister pitch.
With all due respect, this is how it feels to watch you guys draft another cyborg prospect or make another solid yet unexpected free agent signing or trade. I mean no offense by that.
I dont feel bad for you because you got Fister for nothing haha
No, feel bad for us. Fister is just a third guy 2 years away from FA who would make bank on the open market. Throw in Strasburg, Harper, and even a guy like Clippard and you can see the predicament Nats fans are in. We’re gonna lose some of our favorite players, guys who have made it fun and semi-not shameful to be a Nats fan. Such a sad, sad realization.
Boras’d.
This is amazing. Keeping all of these guys together is soooo important.
It’s hilarious how little the Braves fans know about the team they support.
This should be good. Please explain.
Reading some of the comments, stuff like “Heyward isn’t the best player on our team, WAR is terrible just because”
or “Freeman is the greatest first baseman in the game right now, ignoring the fact that he has had just ONE good season and a really high BABIP to boot”
Heyward is not the best player on our team. And Freeman is not the best 1B in the NL. Not yet at least. I think you’re exaggerating quite a bit to create a point that doesn’t work or exist.
Heyward has to prove he can stay on the field before he can be considered top 3 even on the team.
the fact that there are multiple variants and calculations of WAR kinda punches a hole in your argument that it’s the only stat that matters.
Right now? Freeman is the best player. In terms of ceiling? Heyward is the best. Freeman is definitely in talks for the best 1st baseman in the game.
I’d actually rate Simmons as the best player on the team right now, but a good argument could be made for Freeman, Heyward, or Justin Upton. I like them all, and hope they can extend Heyward too.
You’ve already said that you’re a red sox fan! You probably don’t watch the braves as much as us braves do! If you watched everyday you would see that Freeman is consistant and improving every year. Heyward is a really good ball player and if he can stay healthy he could be a great one! He has a chance to be a real star, but to be a real star he needs health. To say that he is the braves best player isn’t being fair. He could be! I believe he will be extended.
That’s true, I don’t watch the braves as much as their fans, but I can look at stats which are far more accurate than the eye test. Apparently Braves fans don’t care about stats and factual things like that.
If you were a Braves fan, you would know they approached Heyward for an long extension.
lol @ look at stats.
What a homer.
The braves and Heyward both said they want to wait and see how he does the next two years!
The braves and Heyward both said they want to wait and see how he does the next two years!
And this comment is in regards to what?
I love the process the Braves are going through, of locking up the core. The risk involved is high of course, however it could pay dividends down the road as well. I really do wish however that both Minor and Heyward would be extended for 5 years or so.
I may be ahead of myself, but what kind of contract do you guys see for minor at this point? I was thinking a 6 year 80-90 million dollar deal. A 13-15 annual salary seems right to me if he continues to improve as he has. I have always been incredibly high on Minor though, I am well aware that some don’t share the same views on his ceiling.
He seems like a 2-3 to me. He qualified as a super two so we have him for the next 4 seasons. Since he agreed to 3.85 this year I would think the rest of his arb would be valued around 6.5, 9, 12 (currently, could certainly increase year to year). I’d be all for up to 6/65 or so which would include guaranteeing this year and buying out two free agent years. He’s still too far from free agency to net 80-90 Mil. Bailey got 105M and he was three years closer to FA.
The logic you have makes total sense, like I said, I might value him much more than his real value. I really think a strong lefty presence in a staff is vital.
I agree on the lefty presence. It really helps to break up the righty starters and change the preparation for the opponent. Would really like to see him locked up. I think most average fans really under value him.
Now for Minor and Melden!
Nothing extravagant for Medlen please. He’s average.
I mean, if pitching outstanding for the Braves 2 seasons in a row is average… He’s been better than Homer Bailey has for the last two seasons and he just got $105 million.
I’ll gut punch Wren if he gives Medlen anywhere close to 105 mil.
Exactly.
Medlen turned the gas on in the second half of last season once again, boasting a 2.38 ERA and a 2.86 FIP (2.90xFIP) improving his K rate to (22%) and his BB rate to (4.7%) in the process after still a solid first half of the season. The dudes going to get a really really nice contract if he can go 200 IP back to back seasons as projected. He was better than both Minor and Teheran in the 2nd half of the season. He is certainly above “average”.
In your opinion. In mine, he’s average at best. He’s also failed to come up when it matters.
Minor > Medlen.
I highly doubt he’ll ever, ever, get $100mm. If he does, it won’t be from Atlanta.
You do realize that an actual prototypical “average” starter in the majors is an ERA around 4 or ERA+ at 100?
Some people’s expectations can be too high…
Exactly, and Medlen had an ERA+ of 124 (above average) and an ERA- of 84 also above average last season with ~200 IP.
You don’t have an understanding of the market if you don’t think Medlen can’t get $100mm.
And Justin Upton.
I would say Minor not Medlen
I love Simba, but this nearly doubled what I expected on an extension. Personally I don’t care how much they spend on any given player, but I sure as heck hope Liberty Media plans on adding about 60-80Mil to that payroll over the next few years or Simba and Freeman are going to have to be superstars by 2017-18
good thing Simmons is signed thru 2020 and Freeman 2021
Wren just said that there will be more extensions!
Medlen, Minor and JUp are the only real candidates left. Maybe Avilan?
Uggla and BJ up next… No, but seriously Braves are showing how to get things done. Congrats to them.
I laughed and cried at that statement….
Only if it’s for a small amount. You don’t want to extend non-closer bullpens arms. They’re a dime a dozen.
Great job braves.
Wren has done a stand out job getting these deals done. Even if some of them don’t pan out, getting this many players under cost certainty really helps the organization.
Given what Peralta got, and what Drew is looking for, I don’t mind that price for his free agent years.
All of these extensions are great for our beloved Braves. Hopefully Minor is next.
Now, this talk about the better player is debatable. Freeman or J Hey. Hmmmmm. Maybe Evan or Simmons could be number 3. Let me start a new debate. Personally i think the choice for the third best player is between J Hey and Gattis. Freeman is clearly the Braves glue. My stance is simple, improvement every year vs. declining. The 2 year extension for Heyward could simply be holding the spot for our next great right fielder in the farm system. The best extension was by far Kimbrel’s. Congrats to the Braves office for locking up the best RP and SS.
Next great RF??? Do you realize how shallow Braves OF farm system is? And you’re not going to easily replace JHey, who even during his struggles at the plate, has elite defense that should slot him in CF, if we hadn’t a diva (BJ Upton) that would go Joan Crawford on everyone if there was a corner OF next to his name in the batting order.
And I realize how deep the farm is on pitching which 25 or so other teams lack. Heyward’s lack of speed and first step attribute doesn’t quite cement him in center.
And I realize how deep the farm is on pitching which 25 or so other teams lack. Heyward’s lack of speed and first step attribute doesn’t quite cement him in center.
I like the deal. Good shortstops are very hard to find, and he’s a wizard with the glove who can hit a bit (and maybe improve.) The Braves aren’t tied up past his 30’s. Boras might disagree, but I’d do this one over Drew any day,
Is now or later a good time to remind people that Elvis Andrus got 8 years $120million?
While it would have been interesting to see if defense ever pays, this was a great extension for the Braves.
The verdict is in- it pays about $58 million dollars
Other than Fredi Gonzalez getting a premature extension, this offseason has felt like Christmas morning for Braves fans. The only thing that would make this offseason complete is if Liberty actually sold the team to someone dedicated to trying to win a World Series year in and year out instead of using the team as a tax shelter.
Defence (clap clap) defence (clap clap) defence
I predicted around 7/65, so less than i thought.
Solid deal.
And You get an extension! And you get an extension! Everybody gets brand new extensions!!
Should any Braves player that didn’t get an extension this year come to camp with a chip on there shoulder??..
With teams like The Yankees and Dodgers out there and factoring in all of the TV revenue deals. It is smart to lock up these guys before they can even contemplate talking to another team.
Also, this gives our core a chance and expand the chemistry as we watch these Baby Braves (who fielded the youngest team in MLB last season) grow before our very eyes.
If anyone actually believes the defensive metrics on Simmons then I have oceanfront property to sell you.
Disagree with all the negative votes on this one. Defensive metrics are far from perfect… too many factors to build a proper algorithm.
Yup. They’re pretty flawed. I doubt Simmons is better than Ozzie Smith in the field.
Should make for a good excuse in 6 years as to why Atlanta hasn’t won… “oh well, they’ve been together for forever, this is finally the year…”. Too bad these guys didn’t do anything in the NLDS and don’t rise to the occasion. Enjoy the death bed Braves fans.
How did SF do in the NLDS last year? Oh, that’s right, they weren’t in it! 😉
SF assembled a dynasty that has won 2 WS in in the last 4 years. ATL only made the playoffs twice in that span and were mediocre. No argument on your part.
All good things come to an end. We’ll see how many more they win. I do like the Giant’s style of play, but when I think dynasty, I think Cardinals or Yankees(of old, of course).
The Braves actually made the playoffs in three of those four years and have 22 more wins than the Giants in that span.
-C
How many world series rings do you have then? Done counting?
Two rings aren’t a dynasty. On top of this you seem to be forgetting the main point of this article… YOUNG TALENT. Hate to hate if you want to… but your time will be wasted.
You do know that Atlanta was the 3rd youngest team in baseball last year don’t you? And all the injuries and 2 of the core players struggled. That they made it to the post season at all and won a lot of games says a lot about the braves! Oh how did the giants do in the playoffs last year?
No way J. Upton gets extended. He’s under a team friendly deal and is easily tradeable if the Braves are going to lose him by 2016, which seems likely with all the extensions getting done to system talent.
If Upton got a big extension, then there’s no chance Heyward is going to be here in 2016. Both are free agents in the same offseason and well positioned to get top dollar.
The thing I take out of this extension bananza; the Braves have done an amazing job scouting and developing players.
Less than 9 mil AAV? For 7 years? Huge steal for the Braves.
Frank Wren doing work!
this is a smart move, you sign them to long extensions when they’re young and by the time they become a free agent at 30-31 or so you let another pay them stupid money and watch as they fail to live up to expectations on the wrong side of their career. This should be standard operating procedure for small-mid market clubs.
Should be standard operating procedure for any club that wants to be successful. The Rays have been the best example of this in recent years.
I cannot believe that the Braves can have such a long range view that they could see that Simmons would be worth what they are agreeing to pay him. What about his year last year would indicate this kind of value.
Oh I don’t know… how about that he just had arguably one of the best defensive seasons of all time?
Am I the only one who thinks this is an “overpay.” I put that in quotes because it’s an overpay in the sense that the whole point of these early extensions is to underpay. It just seems to me that guys like Braun, Goldschmidt, Bumgarner, and Altuve should not be being outpaid by a guy like Simmons.