The Orioles are “going hard” after Brewers right-hander Zack Greinke, an MLB executive told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles appear to be the most aggressive suitor for Greinke, but talks are preliminary, Connolly reports. Some believe the Orioles and Braves are most likely to land Greinke, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports.
Brewers president of baseball operations Doug Melvin recently told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that his team is "trying to win games and get back in the hunt." The Brewers may wait until after facing the Reds, Pirates and Cardinals to determine their course of action this summer.
Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette "absolutely" has financial support from ownership to take on salary this season, Connolly reports. Greinke, who’s on track for free agency this offseason, earns $13.5MM in 2012. The Brewers could obtain two compensatory draft picks for losing Greinke to free agency, but no other team has the same opportunity under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.
Duquette recently told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com that he'd like to improve his team's rotation if possible. Top prospects Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy are probably off-limits in trade talks. “They look to be long-term solutions to help the Orioles," Duquette said. The Orioles don’t want to trade young pitching, Connolly reports.
Greinke, 28, has a 3.08 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 108 innings so far this year. Agent Casey Close has had some extensions talks with the Brewers on Greinke's behalf.
Brian Matusz is a possible trade chip for the Orioles, Crasnick writes (on Twitter). The Orioles are "down on" Matusz, who's now in the minor leagues.
Please let this be true !!!!!!
Whattttttt? They Better not be trying to trade Machado or Bundy.
This doesn’t really make sense. The Orioles have completely faded in recent weeks and can’t be considered a true contender at this point. The only way this would make sense is if they got Greinke’s word he would sign an extension with them, which I doubt.
they are 1 game out of a wildcard spot, no?
They hold the second wild card spot. Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are all within two games of it though…
They have the fourth worst run differential in the AL (-28) and have about a 15% chance at the playoffs.
I’m sure the Cardinals had a low percentage to make the playoffs last year too, and the Pirates preseason odds had to be low as well. Games are played on the field, not on computers.
“sometimes improbable events occur, therefore we should ignore probability”
More like “sometimes we should ignore probability”. Winners take chances losers play it safe. No one is talking about selling the farm for Greinke, but a solid package might be worth it.
“sometimes we should ignore probability”
oh this ought to be good. exactly how do you decide which times to do that?
when you think you can win?
how do you determine that? remember, no probability allowed
Obviously your gut tell your. All kidding aside, the desire to win sometimes clouds better judgement. “Go for it all today and don’t worry about tomorrow”, is probably what’s going through Oriole management.
No, It’s gut. But Zack is and the O’s are a good match. Underdogs and under the radar.
It’s called calculated risk. The Orioles are in the playoff hunt for the first time in a long time. What’s wrong with giving up a Arrieta, Matusz, or Tillman for a run with Greinke and the possibility of signing him long term?
I bet you were on here saying the Brewers were stupid to give up the prospects for CC Sabathia, yet none of those dudes ended up being world beaters.
Meanwhile the fan base got behind the Brewers and hasn’t stopped since.
what are you doing
i asked you a very clear, simple question: how do you determine which times to ignore probability?
remember, you cannot use probability in making this determination
As a Nats fan, I know that the infamous Colon Trade of 2002 crippled their farm system for almost a decade. I’d be wary of trading top prospects, especially multiple top prospects, just for one guy in the short term who doesn’t even help that much.
The O’s need a lot more than just a starting pitcher. If I were them, I’d target some guys that could actually help decrease their horrific run differential instead of a single starter.
The Orioles will not be trading Machado or Bundy, there are not any top prospects after that. I’d be surprised if this deal got done. If the Brewers are willing to take on a high potential and unproven arm like Arrieta or Matusz, maybe a prospect like Schoop, it could get done.
LOLOL. I see what ur up to and they can’t answer it of course.. I gonna throw in here what the NE Media would have in the old days.. The Duquette effect.. Count on one /some of his wacky moves to take effect and the magic to take over, or just the opposite.
Apparently my post got moderated for some reason.
Long story short, look at what the CC trade got the Brewers. Nothing wrong with giving up prospects when you have a solid chance at a run. Not every time, but sometimes you have to take a calculated risk.
evasion level: expert
how is that evasion? So I guess in your world, you never trade prospects. Were you against the Red Sox going after A-Gon?
you: sometimes we should ignore probability
me: how do you determine which times to ignore it
you: sometimes you have to take a calculated risk
the universe: what
I am a Pirates fan, and i still believe that they are one or two starting pitchers away from contending. I am not completely sold on Erik Bedard or Kevin Coreia in the rotation. I would llike to see Brad Lincoln get another shot in the starting rotation. He could plug one of the gaps, but they need another left-hander to complement AJ Burnett.
It’s not improbable for the Orioles or Pirates to be winning right now, their run differentials aren’t great but all it takes is one or two blowouts either way to skew those numbers. You can’t base what you do on the talking heads from ESPN or fans who always want the team to go “all in” every year, the GM needs to take a look at the team and make a reasonable move or take a chance if they really believe. Baltimore has a lineup good enough for them to stay in it for a while, especially if Markakis comes back soon, and getting a stud pitcher would help them out so much.
I don’t think it would be smart for the Orioles to trade Bundy or Machado for Greinke, but I don’t think they should have to. We’ll see what the value is for hired guns I guess this year since there’s no draft pick compensation, there’s really nothing you can compare them to.
it’s very easy to throw around agreeable phrases like “take a look at the team and make a reasonable move”, but that’s not advancing your case at all
what we’re after here is how to determine which moves are reasonable. tons of work has been published on what winning teams look like and in what environments they emerge. all of that work suggests a team like the 2012 orioles is unlikely to remain a winner this year
what counter-evidence do you have beyond “well, sometimes improbable things happen”?
I’m not going to sit here and define “calculated risk” for you. You look at what you are giving up, and what you may get in return. A formerlytouted prospect who may have flamed out (Matsuz, Arrieta, or Tillman), for a half season of one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball + a small chance of resigning him. I’d take that every time.
Then again, I was never afraid of getting off the porch and mixing it in.
okay listen up men. i called this meeting today because we’ve got to calculate the correct time to ignore all the calculations
let’s start by naming all the trades we can think of for no particular reason at all. i figure that should clear things up nicely
You can pretend like that’s what I’m saying all you want. I don’t get my jollies off making smart Alec comments on messageboards. Bottom line is that the Orioles have a chance to win, and can improve those chances by giving up some pitching prospects that aren’t exactly predicted to be top of the rotation starters. In my eyes, i see that’s a risk worth taking. Apparently you don’t.
have a chance to win this year…and a better chance to win in the following years, provided they don’t to something short-sighted and ignore probability
In the AL, there are two wild card spots that could be had from many different teams if they make the right moves. It looks like Texas and the Yanks have their divisions pretty much locked up, and there is a big heap of teams like Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Anaheim, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox all in the hunt for two spots. Despite the preseason projections for the Orioles, they are in the thick of things right now and are tied for the second wild card spot. There is no magic formula right now to determine how the Orioles or any other team is going to perform for the rest of the season, so if they see a trade they see fit, they should pull the trigger.
All of these teams in the AL should be competing with each other for the majority of the season and if Baltimore or any of the others acquire a valuable player like Greinke, it will greatly increase their odds of sustaining their success and getting ahead of the pack.
I don’t think either of us are asking them to abandon their future and trade two of the top 10 prospects in baseball for a rental, but if they trade is within reason, this is the time to make a move.
so you are basically taking the position that the odds are unknowable then
that’s a fine position to take, i guess, but it won’t win you much money. there’s a reason oddsmakers and baseball executives operate the way they do
as much as we all love the variance inherent to the sport, it isn’t just a toss up
Players perform very differently from year to year, and I think it’s hard to buy into preseason odds because they rarely seem to work out in any sport. There are some teams that are flat out loaded like the Yankees and Rangers, but there are many things that can’t be predicted, or are simply overlooked. I don’t think anyone seen the Blue Jays losing 3/5 of their rotation in one week, and I just feel like there are so many crazy things that can and do happen in baseball every year.
Before the conversation goes even longer, I just feel like if Baltimore believes they have a fair offer for Greinke they should take it, because there isn’t one or two teams in the wild card race that is significantly stronger than the others and a pitcher like Greinke can possibly have the Sabathia/Brewers effect on a team.
The best teams on paper rarely win championships in any sport, many different things can happen. In hockey, the Kings were garbage in the regular season. The Giants were horrible midway through the NFL season, and there was no reason to believe the Super Bowl wouldn’t have been New England vs Green Bay, but luck and the unexplainable plays a huge role in every sport.
we aren’t even talking about preseason odds here, though
my position isn’t that the outcomes are predetermined, so the fact that improbable events sometimes occur isn’t a challenge. in fact, improbable events always occur…a small percentage of the time
nonetheless, you can’t build a strategy based on exceptions
i mean, you can. but you won’t make money. and you won’t build a successful franchise
posted response on page 3
So. Every year there is a team that has a less than 20% chance to make the playoffs and does.
therefore i conclude all teams with a 20% chance to make the playoffs should trade prospects for rentals at the deadline. simple logic you guys i should totally be a gm
How do you know he is a rental? Has he said he would never sign with Baltimore? Are you opposed to trading for any “rental” or just in this instance?
Well if ESPN says they only have a 15% chance they should just pack it in. Same place that had them losing 100 games this year. Run differential doesn’t count for playoff spots. Wins do. You can win a bunch of 3-2 games and lose a bunch 14-3 and still make the playoffs.
It does indicate talent level. The Orioles have over performed in the first half and it would take a radical change in performance or dumb luck for them to not take a sharp decline in the 2nd half.
A team in their position should not be going all out for what looks like a rental.
Yea but sometimes talent doesnt play up to itself. Its not like teams like the Yankees never lose 1 run games. Look at the Rangers they just got swept by my White Sox. I think they lost the season series to them 5-2 or 5-1 I cant remember. Im sure no one including myself thinks the Sox are a better team than Texas. Sometimes those stats just get in the way of themselves from actually evaluating a team.
O’s are 17-24 since May 19 and have dropped to 8th in team ERA. Pitching HAS to be their priority right now, whether for the rest of this year or the future.
@ Zebradune
This trade would make sense if the Orioles are thinking about keeping Greinke long term.
Baltimore has trouble attracting free agents (no offense to the O’s fans). However, Orioles will target Greinke in the coming offseason, it will be worthwhile to make a trade for him now. If Greinke enjoys playing for Baltimore, it will only boost the chance of having Greinke re-sign with the O’s.
I know this type of situation has two big ‘ifs’:
1) Balitmore first must successfully trade for Greinke
2) Greinke must enjoy his time with Baltimore.
It doesn’t always work out (ex. 2008 Brewers and Sabathia), but at least this time there will be no New York Yankees in the bidding.
It does seem like a worthwhile experiment.
Let’s hope the Brewers lose a bunch of games right after the ASG and the Braves land Greinke. Definitely need another starting pitcher.
If the braves lose the series againist the phillies, mets and giants, they will sellers at the end of july.
doubtful they lose all three series more doubtful they sell..who would they get rid of? freeman heyward and simmons are staying put ugglas got 3 years left chips done afer the season prado has turned his doubters the other way and mac while they wouldnt trade him would be hard to trade anyways with his price tag
Braves aren’t going to be sellers. You can forget about that silly thought. Braves already have a nice line up 1-8 and a few guys such as McCann & Freeman have been slumping so far this year but have shown signs of breaking out the last few games or so. They just need an Ace such as Greinke and perhaps a bullpen arm for support. Frank Wren is a lot smarter than that I hope. Have faith. Braves have too much talent on the team to just give up on the season.
Hopefully, Atlanta is not going ‘soft’ on him.
If Machado and Bundy are off the table, JUST WHO WOULD THEY OFFER? There’s Schoop, but he’s not a headline piece, and… uh…. uh…. yeah.
LJ Hoes is raking at Triple-A. Throw in an arm from the “cavalry” like Arietta and that should be enough.
Hoes is who I was thinking of, too. I know he’s moved all around the field lately, but I wonder if he can play CF? We really need an upgrade in CF. Schoop, Hoes, and one of those arms (Areitta, Britton, Tillman, Matusz, what have you) might be enough.
Did your post also need to be approved because of LJ’s last name?
are you referring to a trade for randy wolf? that might get it done…
Greinke’s value is really suppressed (as is Hamels) by the new CBA, as whoever trades for him won’t get compensation picks if he walks at the end of the season. Unless BAL can get Greinke to agree to sign an extension (I see hell freezing over first), then there is no reason to trade a really high valued prospect to get him. I think the in-season paid price for Greinke or Hamels will be a lot less than most folks think. I’d venture that Schoop is the most valuable piece they’d need to give – I wouldn’t put Machado or Bundy anywhere near the discussion.
…then if they aren’t trading anyone of value, how can they be going ‘hard’ after him?
Dunno…FWIW, I wasn’t suggesting that BAL couldn’t throw Bundy or Machado to MIL, I just think it would be foolish to do so if they can’t sign Greinke long-term. If MIL gets half of the value back for Greinke that they gave to get him, I think that’s a good haul for them. That said, one can never predict how another team can drive the market, especially one not expected to be a contender (i.e. the Orioles).
For some reason the lengthy response I had written got lost upon posting…but you’re right, BAL may very well be offering Machado or Bundy for Greinke. I was only stating that, if they can’t sign Greinke long-term, I wouldn’t do it, based on the new market/CBA dynamics.
Even if a team trading for Greinke can’t get draft pick compensation, the Brewers can. So the asking price starts as the equivalent of two first round picks and goes from there.
If you look at what the brewers gave up, they have to be looking for one of those guys in a trade for greinke straight up. They gave away Escobar and Odirizzi, pretty much their top prospects in consecutive years. Not to mention Cain who still probably projects as a solid back up outfielder.
You really need to lower your expectations. Brewers got 2 years of control with that package vs. the <1/2 year of control whoever gets him will be getting. It's not gonna be an equal return.
I keep reading this, but have seen absolutely zero evidence of it. A team looking to acquire pieces, in order to bolster their chances of getting to the postseason, does not have leverage. The Brewers will keep him before they deal him for garbage, because they would receive picks. I’m not calling Schoop garbage, obviously, but they would need to include much more. Orioles fans won’t want to hear it, but Machado for Greinke is the only way I see a deal getting done.
Schoop, Hoes, Delmonico, Esposito, Wright, Bridwell.
Four of those six get it done.
Correct on evidence, since this is the first deadline deal period to arrive since the new CBA was approved. No one is quite sure how this will all work out. I only speculate (and that’s all it is at this point) that no mega-prospect gets dealt in this kind of deal this July, unless the team receiving the MLB stud has a deal in place for them long-term. Otherwise, you’re right Aaron – I’d keep Greinke (same will apply for Hamels) and get the picks.
I’m betting this is the way these deals will pan out. Without a top prospect return, they won’t get done. Some teams will be willing. I like watching Greinke pitch, so I’d be happy seeing him finish the year in Milwaukee. That said, I would rather see him in an O’s uniform over the Braves – mainly because they have Machado… but also sending him to the AL would be a plus.
they still recieve the pick
Until we see an actual trade of an elite pitcher, none of us know where to set the value under the new CBA. It’s all individual conjecture. Value will be set by whatever team feels that Greinke or Hammels is the missing piece (or the missing piece for a rival) and what they’re willing to pony up. The more teams involved in this, the more the Brewers are going to be able to drive up the asking price.
No Machado or Dundy, then no deal. You don’t get a #1 starter for a bag of balls and peanuts. The Brewers can keep him and still hope to sign him. If not, they get a #1 and a compensatory pick. No reason to trade him for less than that. Some of these teams need to worry about the now while they are good. These prospects may not help you in 2-3 years if you are going against Boston, TB and New York.
“they get a #1 and a compensatory pick.”
You get a 2nd round pick if someone signs him who falls in the lower 50% of teams with winning percentage, along with a comp. pick and the Brewers had better remember that.
I’d say the chances of that happening are fairly minute, wouldn’t you?
No telling really with Greinke. He may prefer a small media market as a FA. Not saying he will, but he just might. If he does? Throw out the large market NYY, Boston big bidders. LAD, LAA doesn’t need him anyway and there goes the heavy hitters. Philly can’t afford to spend with Hamels a FA.
5 of the biggest markets gone. Now this is just **if** Greinke is looking at small market teams and any of those are in the top tier. What if he chose.. Houston as a guess and they surprisingly spent? KC and they thought he would return and push them over the top? Even the Fish if they thought letting Sanchez go and replacing him with Greinke?
Just anything is possible and it has happened before. lower half team, nabs premier FA and original team just gets a 2nd rounder + compensatory pick.
The “Greinke can’t pitch in a big market” thing has been embellished to the point that it’s just become silly. He will go to the highest bidder. The highest bidder will not be KC, and it won’t be Miami with the way this season, and their fan support, or lack thereof, is turning out. A big spender will spend big… and the big spenders are almost always in the top 50 percent, solely due to their… yep, big spending. Cubs being the obvious exception… poor Cubs.
Miami, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, all fit the profile for Greinke
Houston, the 4th biggest city in the US and growing? Only one team in the city? That Houston? Small market?
Payroll wise? You bet it is. Same with the Miami Marlins.
Just because the areas are huge, does not mean these teams are “large market” in terms of spending on talent in the previous years and that is what was basing it on.
You can have Dundy just not Bundy.
Al Bundy sells shoes.
Right and Dylan Bundy and his older brother Bobby Bundy pitch in the Orioles minor league system.
San Diego fans were saying the exact same thing about Jake Peavy a few years ago. Guess what happened. Peavy was traded for a nice package of prospects but nowhere close to what Padre fans were expecting. And Peavy had longer than 3 months left on his contract. You are not getting guys like Machado/Bundy from the O’s or Simmons/Teheran from the Braves. You will get something like Matusz+ from the O’s or Minor+ from the Braves. Get used to it.
I prefer Minor a million times over Matusz
Not sure what is Matusz problem. He was suppose to be better than Minor if I’m not mistaken. He still has time to break out but how long until he figures out how to pitch is the question.
Wait a minute….Manchado and bundy are off limits? and the orioles dont want to trade young pitching? so who are they gonna trade? JJ Hardy? Mark Reynolds to play first so they can throw hart back in the OF? if manchado and bundy are off the table i hope the brewers then would ask for Adam Jones or Weiters. and if their top two prospects are off the table then hell the yankees need to offer up Ramiro Pena, Cervelli, Phelps, and Cito Culver. for giggles throw in banuelos.
JJ Hardy for Zack Greinke + Carlos Gomez
I would jump off the roof of Miller Park.
Greinke is not an ace anymore.
I hope that is a joke about the Jones/Wieters thing because hell would freeze over before that happened.
I think a good package of Matusz, Avery, and Schoop could get this done for Greinke.
He is a solid pitcher but he is no Verlander or Kershaw though and shouldnt demand top of line prospects
your kiding right? he has been nothing but good for Millwaukee he is currently 9-2 with era just over 3 saying hes not a ace anymore is like saying Cain sucks.It will cost you at 1 of your golden two to get him
Machado+Avery+Schoop
YEAH RIGHT.
Cain is dominant every damn year.
Greinke is far from a Cain.
Hammel is just as good as Greinke this year will you say he is better?
You are not getting top prospects for a #2 or #3 guy
I dont know why, they have all the makings of last years pirates.
Maybe they are trying to be agressive because they dont want to be like the pirates. That being said, if they give up too much I will be quite sad
Considering orioles played well till the break last year. Pirates will fade trust me
The O’s were 36-52 at the break last year. That’s playing well?
Pirates are 46-36 and on a 4-game winning streak and the they lead the NL Central by 2 games over Cincinnati. They are finishing off their series in grand style. Can anybody stop them except themselves? Not one player is carrying the team right now. All 25 are stepping up at different times in different games. Can any other team boast such a complete effort? The Pirates are putting an exclamation point on the phrase, “There is no I in team.”
They swept the Astros im not convinced yet.
Goes to Jays. You heard it here first.
for lawrie?
The only way the O’s get Greinke if they don’t trade Bundy or Machado is if the Brewers think they can straighten out Matusz or Arrieta. If they do, then I think they have to seriously look at a package that includes both of them along with 1 or 2 of Schoop, Bascom, etc
Brewers don’t want Projects, they want Prospects!
We the Brewers Better get a lot back in return!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bundy and Machado are not going anywhere. Too important to future.
TMI
Matusz or Arrieta? Do you want Wolf? The Brewers will require big name prospects in return or they won’t deal him. If you want a cheaper rental, there are Garza, Marcum and Dempster.
Lol Exactly, you don’t trade away a 28 year old ace without receiving highly coveted prospects in return. The only way this trade happens is if Bundy or Machado are apart of the deal.
O’s are not foolish enough to give up a top ten prospect, especially with no comp. Trading rules have changed, players have more value based upon control and compensation. That is why Garza has more trade value now than Greinke or Hamels.
Garza won’t get you to the playoffs, so how is his value higher?
no way in hell. Bundy and Machado are worth a lot more than .5 years of any ace.
This.
When was the last time Baltimore made the playoffs? Do you think your chances will be better in the next 5 years with Boston NY and TB? I don’t think so.
Considering the fact that there’s an extra playoff spot in the mix, I do think so.
Garza isn’t a rental he is isn’t a FA till the end of the season.
:EDIT
I meant to put not a free agent until after 2013 season.
something like a matusz, schoop, averey, arrieta, and a lj hoes type of deal
For two months? Good luck with that.
I doubt they want Arrieta, that guy looks like a lost cause. If they had NO other offers, I could see them settling on Matusz, Britton, and Schoop. That’s if no one else offered anything, period.
The Brewers pitching coach is rick kranitz, and he came up with matusz, arritea etc. so he could have a lot of impact on who the brewers want.
And I’m sure he knows those guys aren’t top of the rotation guys.
But he might also be cocky enough to think he could fix them.
Matusz plus one of thise maybe
As someone else here mentioned, I think we’ll be surprised at the returns that sellers get in this year’s deadline deals. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see nearly as many deals as we have in years past.
First off, the new CBA rules really make three month rentals nothing more than three month rentals.
Second, the new wild card spot can give fringe teams that would have sold in years past more of a reason to hang on to their veterans, or even to become buyers. Look at the AL. There are really only three teams that are out of it right now, with the rest of the teams sitting within 3.5 games of a playoff spot. The NL is a bit more separated, but only four teams are more than 8.5 games out at this point.
This summer is going to be really interesting, to say the least.
Oh, and on this topic, the O’s have the pieces to get Greinke without trading Machado or Bundy. They would just have to give up just about every other legitimate prospect that they have. Jonathan Schoop, L.J. Hoes, Nick Delmonico, Jason Esposito, Mike Wright, Parker Bridwell. Considering the new CBA rules, I wouldn’t be surprised if four of those six could get it done.
I think the Braves would be willing to give up more to get Greinke than they normally would in a deal like this because there is a great chance for a long-term deal.
The Braves held on to their top prospect last year to make a deal. That prospect has gotten shelled this year. So much for prospects.
Buying high looks like. Grienke’s having almost a career year this year, I personally wouldn’t go after someone like him. I would rather get someone who’s having a bit of an off year but will be controllable…hmmm-honestly the Padres have some really awesome pieces – Clayton Richard, not a pitcher obviously but Quentin’s a great, cheap RH rental in a contract year
Clayton Richard’s 4.14 road ERA doesn’t seem like it would translate well to a hitter’s park in the AL East.
The only Padre I would give up anything of value for is Chase Headley.
Not sure. On the one hand playoff teams need high ceiling players, on the other if Richard reminds you of Pettitte that was a pretty good playoff pitcher. Finally he’s got 2 years of control left. With Grienke youre trading for 1/2 season coming off his 2nd best first half ever
Career year? Other than last year and the year he won the Cy Young.
last year wasnt that great, not Cy Young great anyway but whatever
I wouldn’t necessarily say that. I think you can expect several more years of low 3 ERAs
schoop, delmonico, and matusz could get it done. but imo the orioles should go after a guy that would take less prospects, can’t see greinke re-signing with Os.
Agreed, or someone who would take that many prospects but would remain under team control for longer.
yeah they should actually look into prospect for prospect deals. of course guys that are close to the majors.
What if the O’s are just saying they are “Going hard” after him just so it will force the rest of the teams in the AL East to feel the need to increase their offers. It’s a smart play. Force your rivals to empty out their respective farm systems of quality talent knowing full well Grienke will walk at the end of the season.
The Yankees and the Red Sox aren’t going to be in on Greinke because Greinke doesn’t want to play there. Not with the problems he’s had in the past.
Dylan Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball right now and the future of the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff. He will not be getting traded for a pitcher who is going to be a free agent after the season. Machado is a shortstop who the Orioles have invested a lot into. The extension given to JJ Hardy could make Machado expendable as he is still a few years away, but I’ve seen him get some very high remarks and player comparisons. At 20 years old, he is definitely someone the Orioles should be holding onto. Have guys like Brian Matusz and Zach Britton completely fallen off of a cliff? With the new CBA rules, either of those pitchers along with a guy like Schoop could get a deal done. Whoever trades for Greinke will not get compensation. This really limits Greinke’s value on the trade market. A lot of fans here who are saying things like “well Bundy and Machado have to be available or no deal will be made” are not understanding what the new rules have done. The Brewers would be smart to pick and choose players from the Orioles who fit their need. With the addition of the second wild card, more teams will feel like they are in it and although the Crew may not come away with a Bundy or Machado they can still throw Greinke out there and see which teams offer Major League ready caliber players who can contribute soon.
Then Greinke just won’t get traded.. other teams might not get compensation but the Brewers DO! They aren’t gonna trade him away for one decent guy and a scrub major leaguer. They want one elite prospect because they feel they can at least get that in next years draft if Greinke leaves.
From what sources I have read, The Brewers will trade Greinke if they are unable to sign him to an extension. The Brewers have said this publicly and you can not blame them. In a season where they are 38-44 and suffering due to the loss of Prince Fielder they would trade Greinke for players they want, rather than watch him sign elsewhere and only come away with potential draft picks. Greinke, regardless of how dominant he is and how well he can pitch, is only a mid season rental. The new rules highlight that. The Brewers can get solid, not elite players in return and still come away with a good deal that benefits them.
It still has to be better than a first round pick and a comp pick and enough to offset the ticket sale drop. So yah it’s going to take blue chip prospects or they will just hold on to him it’s not rocket science
Have guys like Brian Matusz and Zach Britton completely fallen off of a
cliff? With the new CBA rules, either of those pitchers along with a guy
like Schoop could get a deal done.
If that’s all it takes to land Greinke, I can think of 29 other teams who would make a more impressive offer.
As could I, but the title says Orioles does it not, so we have to speculate on Orioles packages. When I or anyone else mentions players like Matusz, Britton, Arrietta, Avery, Schoop, Hoes etc. its not to definitively say they will be in the package but their names are mentioned because they seem reasonable and likely in any proposed deal that doesn’t include Bundy or Machado. Last year, Machado would be expendable. This year with only .5 years of control on Greinke, he should not be.
Personally (and this is my own opinion) I do not see the Orioles as a fit. If they “go hard” for him, great but the Braves are the ones who make the most sense to me given their supply of young pitching talent.
I had a 3 paragraph write up as to why the Orioles aren’t a fit for Greinke, but scrapped it due to the meme “obvious people are obvious.” Some key points though:
• Orioles farm is top-heavy, and not deep (yet). Trade Bundy or Machado and your farm is decimated. Schoop hasn’t had a good year in AA, but he still has some value – just not the same value as those two guys. Their farm is becoming less top-heavy for every draft that passes, but it’s going tot ake a couple more years before they should look at acquiring talent IMO. The Rangers are a great example of this, and I feel that the Royals could be doing the same very soon.
• Orioles are a feel-good story, but are probably overachieving. I don’t know if they can continue their success for the rest of the season, and no one even expected it in the first place.
• Mortgaging what little there is of the farm for the 2nd WC is just bad management. Indirectly proclaiming your team is “going for it” for a 1-game playoff, and then (if you) lose without getting into the “real” playoffs is a good way to get yourself fired.
The Brewers need position players. Not pitching. They’ve drafted a slew of pitchers the last couple years and traded just as many position playing prospects (Brantley, Lawrie, Escobar, LaPointe) during the same time period.
The Brewers need pitching. They have 3 starters that are free agents. Their #1 picks from last year are struggling and still 2-3 years away if they even make it. What positions are open in Milwaukee? SS.
Definitely a SS, plus a long term answer at 3B, RF (if Hart moves to 1B) and CF
At pitcher they have Fiers already up and performing, and Thornburg who is a Top 50 MLB prospect. Then there’s Peralta, Jungmann, Bradley, and Lopez. They have drafted pitching-heavy for two years in a row (until this draft). They’ve lost a ton of position players through trade. That’s where their need is.
Nick Amhed, Edward Salcedo, Joey Terdoslavich, Mike Minor, Tyler Pastornicky, and maybe Randall Delgado.
Take 2 or 3, of those players, Minor and Delgado can’t be on the same package, and if you choose Delgado you can only choose 1 more player not named Mike Minor.
Yah cause minors value is sky high lol every team loaths the change to get a quad A pitcher that has failed at the major leugue level!!
I don’t know if I want Greinke, the more I think about him, I am thinking he’s a malcontent. Plus, what if he gets hurt? He got off on the wrong foot with the Brewers when he was playing Basketball during the 2010-11 off-season and cracked a few ribs. Thus delaying his debut as a Brewer. While the Orioles are in great need of a true # 1, I just don’t know if Greinke is going to be this savior that some O’s fans think he will be. Plus, if he doesn’t re-sign with us, then what are the O’s going to do? Duquette didn’t sign one big name free agent during his first off-season. What makes you think he will doing anything different in the next to replace the talent lost in this trade? The Orioles have lots of warm bodies, but little with any kind of leadership qualities.
I love the Thome trade, we just need more like that rather than shooting for the stars and hoping for the best with a Greinke like player.
This.
The O’s definitely need more aging veterans in the twilight of their career instead of top of the line players in their prime.
/sarcasm
Hahaha, I am still standing by “Thome Like” Trades. We need them to help us to get into the playoffs in 2012.
Thome has been solid so far and I expect him to produce thru the end of this season.
Also, if the Orioles can find players like David Freese, John Jay, Cody Ross and so on, I would be content!
I mean look at the gobs of money spent on Prince Fielder, so called top of the line talent, and they still aren’t playing .500 ball.
Thome’s hitting .211 with four singles. He’s struck out eight times and walked twice.
If that’s your definition of “solid”, I don’t know what to tell you.
Machado and Matusz for Grienke and K-Rod. Lets get it done
no
You should totally be the GM! YOLO
I sure as heck hope we don’t do that.
I hope you’re kidding…
Deal!!!!
I can’t wait until the Brewers trade him for 2-3 top 50 prospects and then resign him in the off season. That is going to be great. He hasn’t lost a game in Milwaukee in a year. That matters to pitchers. Milwaukee will have the money, because Krod and Wolf will be gone. They may resign Marcum cheaper than initially expected.
Can I have some of whatever you are on?
Greinke fetched exactly zero Top 50 prospects when he was 26 with three years of team control on his deal.
How, exactly, is he going to fetch 2-3 Top 50 prospects at 28 with three months of team control on his deal and no draft pick incentive for the team that acquires him?
No, they got a + defender at short and a pitcher who is now in aaa ready to break through to the majors. hmmm… and a former 1st round pick with a mid 90’s fastball that likes to smoke the reefer
if the braves lose the phillies,mets,and giants series then you guys can have uggla,hudson,hanson,minor,venters,hinske,diaz, wilson. oh and mcann. nothing else, we will throw in fredi and frank.
The Braves have more to offer then the Orioles. I figure Atlanta can offer Minor, Salcedo, Graham, Pastornicky, and another pitcher. That gives the brewers two good pitchers, two middle infielders, and a restock to their minor league system.
If the Braves have more to offer than the Orioles, they should offer more than that. Because the O’s can easily top that offer without including Bundy or Machado.
Mike Minor has a career 75+ ERA and shows no signs of putting this together. And the Brewers would want him because why?
The Rangers have a much better group of players they could offer the Brewers than either the O’s or Braves. If they seriously get in the bidding, it’s over for those two teams unless they pony up some of their top tier minor league talent.
Yep.
If the Rangers go all in on a trade, I would expect them to go for Hamels though.
Minor is actually regressing. He leads the NL in Home Runs allowed and his WHIP is still an ugly 1.42. Pass.
I would think the Angels might be in on him since Haren is not pitching like a co-ace and went on the DL. Not sure what their system looks like. What about Detroit? Being a White Sox fan I HOPE they dont but it makes since for them. I would definitely see them losing one of Turner or Castellanos though. The Tigers should trade Porcello Turner/Castellanos Ramon Santiago Raburn to the Cubs for Garza/Dempster/Barney and build a package around either Turner/Castellanos for Greinke. If they want to win this year that would be the way to be serious.
Wow… Why?
they really want that 1 game playoff game apparently
I guess so
The red sox are going to throw a party at crawfords house to watch it!!!
cool
I think it’s more that we need A pitcher. Just one starter who can help next year. With Wolf, Greinke, and Marcum leaving, we can fill in Fiers, Estrada, and one of Peralta, Thornburg, or the guy acquired in a potential trade.
SS is a HUGE need all throughout the organization. We have a couple prospects, at the very low levels, but that’s it. Other needs are 3B (someone to be ready once Aramis leaves in 2 years), RF (if Hart stays at 1B and/or leaves), CF (anything is better than Gomez/Morgan platooning), and RP (bullpen sucks, not much bullpen depth in the minors, either).
I think a package of Schoop, Tillman, Hoes, and Delmonico would get it done. I think the Brewers will definitely ask for Machado and/or Bundy, but I highly doubt they move, unless the Orioles are super desperate.
EDIT: For some reason, this comment was taken completely out of context and did not post in response to the comment I was responding to. But, it’s still mostly relevant as a stand-alone comment.
Yeah, Bundy is invaluable!!! He’s the highest ranked pitching prospect since… oh, Brian Matusz.
Career year in 2012…? His Cy Young year was one of the greatest seasons in the history of baseball. Best since Pedro’s prime years.
(notsureifsrs)
I understand you point and it obviously makes sense, but I don’t think
it’s totally insane to take a chance on winning if your team already has
a good record at this point in the season. I guess you believe Tampa
Bay, Boston, and Anaheim are much better and will simply run away with
the race, but as I’ve said, there’s no way to know for sure, and shaking
things up and adding an ace like Greinke can change up everything, or
they can just regress and fall back into last place. That’s the most
amazing thing about sports, the unpredictability.If St Louis would have simply thrown in the towel last season, they would have never won, but if San Francisco was more conservative, they wouldn’t have traded away their top prospect and extra money on Carlos Beltran. It’s obviously a very hard decision either way.
I believe H.A.M. would be the proper verb to describe the orioles pursuit of greinke.
Frank Wren needs to pull the trigger here and deal…you can not let this slip away
The problem is Brewer fans view Grienke as #1, cause in Miller Park he’s been pretty awesome. GM and scouts as a #2AAA. The Brewers are going to get someone they can sell to fans as a return for Grienke – who that is – hell if I know. He’ll either be ML ready the next day or soon after. But the Brewers aren’t going to get some awesome prospect laden package for a half year of Greinke. Frankly, I don’t see Greinke going anywhere until PHIL and Hamels figure out whats going on. In every pitching universe, Hamels is probably a legit #1. The Brewers will get a near MLB ready prospect and some combination of two or three B and C level prospects, which probably means some off an organization Top 10 Prospect List and then maybe someone from AA that the org. getting Grienke isn’t excited about but the Brewers see something and someone struggling in A.
Can I buy some of what u have? Greinkes numbers are Better than hamels and Im a hamels fan!!! Whip is about the only meaningful cat. Hamels is better in how many cy youngs does hamels have?? Not an ace lol thank the lord you are not a gm as your baseball insight is a joke!!! I also talk with two scouts all be it mostly minor leugue but I sent them your comment so they could get a good chuckle as both view him as an “ace” and they actually only view 6-7 pitchers as an “ace”
after what i saw today with grienke throwing the ball because he didnt run hard enough to first to take the throw, I dont want a little cry baby on the braves who throws temper tantrums because someone legged out a hit on him. God what a whiner, no, not in atlanta, let him and his temper go somewhere else, glad he got thrown out of the game for such a display.
Greinke started his career 13-28 with a 5.00+ ERA in three years. Maybe Matusz is a fit for a trade and could blossom in Milwaukee. Matusz, Schoop, Avery? I’d do it if Greinke is healthy and willing to sign an extension. Not sure I’d take the package if I were in the Brewers’ shoes. The new CBA is going to change the entire dynamic of trades, so nobody can tell what sellers will accept but, certainly, buyers won’t be offering as much as they have in past years. Here is the one player I guarantee the Orioles will not trade: Matt Wieters. Case closed. Don’t even bother talking about him. There’s probably a better chance the Orioles trade Machado than Bundy.