Approximately 196 players were eligible for arbitration when the offseason began, but as our Arbitration Tracker shows, just eight remain unsigned as of today. Here's the latest on those players…
- David Ortiz, Red Sox – Filed for $16.5MM, team countered with $12.65MM. Ortiz is still hoping to work out a multiyear deal before a hearing.
- Mike Napoli, Rangers – Filed for $11.5MM, team countered with $8.3MM. Napoli's hearing is scheduled for Wednesday, and the two sides are focusing on a one-year deal before looking long-term.
- Adam Jones, Orioles – Filed for $7.4MM, team countered with $5MM. A hearing is scheduled for Friday, but there is a sense that they could settle before then.
- Casey McGehee, Pirates – Filed for $2.725MM, team countered with $2.35MM. The two sides are still negotiating, but a hearing is scheduled for Thursday.
- Garrett Jones, Pirates – Filed for $2.5MM, team countered with $2.25MM. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained how his case is linked to McGehee's earlier this month.
- Jose Veras, Brewers – Filed for $2.375MM, team countered with $2MM. There has been no progress in talks and the club expects a hearing.
- Casey Janssen, Blue Jays – Filed for $2.2MM, team countered with $1.8MM. There has been no update on the right-hander's status.
- Alexi Casilla, Twins – Filed for $1.75MM, team countered with $1.065MM. We haven't heard much about Casilla this offseason.
If the Ortiz/Red Sox case goes to arbitration look for the Red Sox to come out on the short end. I think Ortiz wins in that case for no other reason then the Sox low balled him with a $12.65MM offer ($150K increase over his 2011 salary). I still think there is better than a 50% chance the 2 parties come to an agreement around $14MM to avoid arbitration.
Agreed. If I were the Sox I would have offered $13.5M. Let’s be honest, though, does anyone (other than Ortiz) think he will be worth anywhere near $16.5M in 2012?
I have a feeling for just that reason it wont be settled prior to the hearing. Ortiz knows they lowballed and has a really good shot at winning.
“Got a question about salary arbitration? Ask Tal Smith. Smith, a longtime front office executive, is regarded as an arbitration expert. He handled his first case for the Yankees in 1974, the year Major League Baseball adopted arbitration, and has since founded a consulting firm that helps teams prepare their cases and make an argument……………….“The fact that he’s being offered slightly more than what he made last year at an advancing age,” Smith said, “I think that in itself is pretty good.””
Sorry, but I don’t buy the last thing in quotation marks. I think I could go along with that if Ortiz numbers had gone done. But that really isn’t the case over the last 3 years Ortiz has had at least 600 PA’s, right around 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s and in 2011 his BA, OBP, SLG% and OPS were all higher than in either 2009 or 2010. Sorry but I have to go with Ortiz’s number in this case if I’m only given a choice of 1 or the other.
I think Ortiz, Napoli, and G. Jones win, McGehee, Veras, Janssen, and Casilla lose, and Adam Jones settles for around $6.75M
If Ortiz wins in salary arbitration, I think it will be his last year in Boston. Both sides are uncomfortably boxed in right now. If he loses, he’s still over 12 for this year, so there’s no reason for him to sign a multi-year deal at anything less than 2/24 (a lot more than the 2/18 they offered). If he wins, then you would either have to offer three years, or two at something like 2/28-30-but he’s proud and wouldn’t want a pay-cut in year 2, and I don’t think it’s likely to happen. For this year Ortiz is in the driver’s seat, but I think longer term, Boston will have the upper hand, because he’s too expensive for a pure DH, and may find that out in 2013. They won’t make the mistake of offering arbitration a second time, regardless.
I thought once the decision was made, it was final? Meaning that if the Sox win, Oritz is immediately given the one year $12.65M deal, and that’s that. Same thing if Ortiz wins, but with obviously the higher number.
If you are Boston, and you are paying the higher number, I see no real incentive to negotiate anything beyond 2012 at that point. At Ortiz’s age, he could get hurt, or break down, during 2012, and then you’re stuck.
Lets be honest, I think the Sox were hoping that Ortiz would decline arbitration. Since he accepted, I think the Sox are content to play out 2012 with him, and then NOT make an offer next year at all and just part ways.
Bottom line, unless Ortiz produces, and is healthy at the end of 2012, AND is willing to return for less than $10M, this is likely the last year you see him in Boston.
Completely agree with you. I should have been clearer. The arbitration decision (if it gets that far) is final. What I meant to say was that, in this case, the arbitration process probably prevents the two sides from reaching a multi-year deal and may mean that Ortiz is playing his last year for the Red Sox. For 2012, Ortiz is either going to make $12.65MM or $16.5MM. But for 2013, I agree that Boston isn’t going to want to pay him that much. Right now, it could go three ways. Either they settle somewhere in the middle, they go to the hearing, or they do a multi-year deal. Doing a multi-year deal is hard. Because Ortiz is guaranteed no less than $12.65 with a shot at $16.5MM, there’s no incentive for him to do a two year deal for much less than $25-28MM, and I can’t imagine the Red Sox wanting to tie themselves up that way. Once the arbitration is done, either way, it’s likely that the Red Sox will see this as a one year arrangement-there’s no longer any incentive for them to go more than one year. It’s quite possible that if Ortiz continues to play after 2012, he will see his salary follow the path of Damon, with the market valuing his services at increasingly lower levels. The offer of arbitration gave Ortiz leverage for 2012, but while he’s going to be paid a great deal of money for 2012, he hasn’t, as of yet, been able to parlay that into a large long term contract.
Considering Ortiz numbers and age, I see him getting a salary close to 15M. Maybe 14.75M.