The Reds are offering Yonder Alonso as trade bait in their search for a closer or a No. 2 starter, reports Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown. Reds GM Walt Jocketty has spoken to several teams — including the A's, Blue Jays, Indians and Rays — about Alonso, though we heard earlier this week that the Reds thought Alonso was too much to give up for Oakland closer Andrew Bailey.
Alonso is regarded as Cincinnati's top hitting prospect, if one without a Major League position since Joey Votto is cemented at first base. The 24-year-old has an OPS of .837 in four minor league seasons and hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 plate appearances with the Reds last year.
If the Reds were willing to move him, you would think Alonso would be too much to deal for any closer, not just Bailey. Jocketty has said his club's top priority is finding a starting pitcher this offseason, so while the Jays and Indians have some good young arms, they wouldn't be willing to deal a top-of-the-rotation caliber of starter for which the Reds are looking. The Jays and Tribe also have other options at first base, though Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Matt LaPorta wouldn't be major obstacles if Toronto or Cleveland had a legitimate shot at Alonso. The A's and Reds might not be a match on Bailey, but Jocketty might deem possibly-available pitchers like Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill worthy of moving Alonso.
The most logical match would appear to be Tampa Bay, who has a big hole at first base, lots of pitching and a need for a controllable young talent like Alonso. The Rays could offer Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, though the Reds are more likely looking for a pitcher like James Shields. (Obviously David Price and Jeremy Hellickson are staying put.)
I don’t get why they’d be shopping him for a closer…have they looked at the market recently? Not only that, but it’s a prime example of a team overvaluing the closer position.
Not only that but if Alonso lives up to expectations, he can be a superstar. Alonso for Bailey straight up would be a foolish trade for Cincy. They would definitely have to throw in a Gonzalez or Cahill to the mix. Oakland has a multitude of pitching and an atrocious offense so it would work out well for the A’s to get a guy that can hit. At this point Votto is much more valuable than Alonso at 1B so the deal would also work out for the Reds as well.
So you’re saying Gonzalez/Cahill AND Bailey for Alonso? Lol.
The Reds are hoping some team looks over Yonder beyond the market
when i guy like nathan is getting 7 million a year, its not a great market. you could sign madson for around 10 a year, or a guy coming off a bad season or injury like broxton for probably around 6-7 million plus incentives. or you could trade for a cheaper young guy like bailey who is under contract for a few years, but will cost prospects. I think they should kill 2 birds and trade for Gio and Bailey together. Alonso, one of their catcher prospects, and a few other prospects…. 1 more high level and 2 or 3 mid-level.
Hmm. Do the Cubs get interested (using Garza, most probably)? And if so, does it hold interest for the Reds?
Would Garza and Marmol interest the Reds? Would division rivals approach the deal?
That would be theft for the Reds. An unproven guy at a position they already have an MVP at for a #2 starter and a proven closer.
The Cubs just offered arbitration to Pena and they already have Bryan LaHair, last year’s PCL MVP for first base, why would they be interested in anyone else. I doubt Theo would be all that interested.
Because Pena is a stopgap at best, and Bryan LaHair is somebody working to shed the label of being a AAAA player. Maybe he turns into the next Jose Bautista, but until he does something substantial for a prolonged period of time at the Major League level nobody should bet the franchise on that happening. If they want to give him a chance and find out in what is likely to be a lost year, I’m all for that — but I’m not considering him a long-term solution until then, and I’m sure Theo isn’t either.
Honestly, I wasn’t questioning whether or not the Cubs would want Alonso; the real question is if they would want to use Garza to acquire him. He is the Cubs’ only real trade chip (aside from Castro which is not happening) and there are an awful lot of holes to fill.
pena is not gonna accept it. he can get a multi-year deal in this years market as the 3rd best 1b out there. wait until Price and Albert (re)sign
Daniel Bard..
And why exactly would the Red Sox need another 1B?
Yonder could play some RF 😛 But I was mostly joking.
Ahh. Didn’t sense the tongue in your cheek :p. Maybe Yonder can be their manager?
hey cool idea: dont troll
I hope so, he hasn’t shown the ability to play other position.
WANT.
Well if Brett Lawrie gets you 2 years of Shaun Marcum, Yonder Alonso doesn’t get you 4 years of Gio Gonzalez. Wake me when they start throwing Grandal in the mix.
They’ll probably do something with the Rays.
Minnesota Twins?
Twins have no closer and no #2 starting pitchers, if the Reds are looking for a #5 starter then you’re on the right track.
Scot Baker is a #3 on a bad day
Brandon League and James Paxton (23 year old LHP, 95-99MPH fastball, great slider,, #3 prospect in Seattle) for Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal… Who says no?
Reds with out a doubt
I don’t know about that. That’s a decent trade. They have Mesoraco and Votto at those positions, and with League they’re set at closer, and Paxton a solid starter prospect. Seattle probably would need to add more, but it’s certainly not “without a doubt”
joe l-
definitely without a doubt. neither grandal or alonso would be traded straight up for league and paxton. and no i am not a reds fan. just because they have votto and mesoraco doesnt mean they give away the best players in their system. they are teaching alonso to play LF, so they are not stuck if they hold onto him. Alonso seperately can return a legit #2 starter (with a mid level prospect or 3) like Shields, Gio, etc. that offer is a joke that only could have come from a M’s fan.
Reds though it depends on how they evaluate Paxon’s MLB readiness.
He´s ready for the show, and he´s really good, 12.9 K/9 his last season, 1.85 ERA…
In A and AA. Those numbers don’t exactly translate to MLB numbers. He’s still a year away, minimum. Has a good arm though.
we need an ace….not a prospect
So, Pineda, League, Triunfel and Figgins +16 millions for Votto, Grandal and Alonso makes sense for both sides…
why would the reds trade both votto and alonso?
Sorry, it was a mistake, the package would not include Alonso, only Votto and Grandal for Pineda, League, Triunfel and Figgins with his salary, probably the Reds would have to include Frazier…
i think this would be a major overpay by the reds
Not really, 5 years of Pineda (a #1 pitcher, an ace for the minimun salary), 2 years of Brandon League, 2 years of Figgins (free), and 6 years of Carlos Triunfel who´s an interesting prospect for 2 years of Joey Votto and Yasmani Grandal, fair trade IMO…
pineda for yonder and volquez and juan Francisco?
Volquez is awful, the M´s have problems with K´s so Francisco is not an option and Alonso is interesting but not worth Pineda…
yeah i dont think yonder=pineda either
Add Ackley.
I would pay for Figgens not to be on the roster.
Tell you what, $20 and I can assure you that you’ll never find Figgens on their roster again.
I think it’s too early to label Pineda as a true #1. Great looking pitcher but he threw his FB 65% of the time and the slider 30% of the time. He needs to develop a 3rd pitch once the league sees him a couple of times.
Pineda, League & Ackley for Votto, Grandal & Bailey helps both teams, actually.
So 10 cost controlled years of two proven excellent players at premium positions 1-2 Starter, 2B and a cheap Closer, for an expensive 2 Years of an Excellent player who would arguably be the third best FA at his position right now(Votto), the second best Catcher in the Reds Minors(Grandal) and a poor performing former top prospect? Something tells me the Mariners don’t do that deal
Since when did they fire Jack Z?!?!
And why would the Reds want Figgins? It’s like you’re trying to offset salary for the M’s when in fact, Votto is UNDER market value.
Votto and a lesser prospect for Pineda, Truinfel and League is probably more appropriate.
what a joke! maybe you can trade figgins and pineda for Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Bucholz and pedroia. Seriously people, stop posting your wet-dream trades!
How high do you have to be to think Yonder Alonso will get you an ace?
I really want some of that.
Not one on one but I think he can center one for a #2 type.
I still like five years of Michael Pineda, one year of Brandon League, two years of Chone Figgins and cash for two years of Edinson Volquez and six years each of Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal.
The pitching-poor Reds get two reigning All Star pitchers for two promising but unproven prospects (who are older than Pineda). Figgins (with cash) provides a potential bounce-back leadoff hitter while the Mariners pay over market value for Volquez (and his 2011 ERA of 5.71 and ERA+ of 68). League holds down the closer role until Brad Boxberger is ready.
The Mariners would hope that Alonso develops more than Justin Smoak, who was a higher-ranked prospect than Alonso (who is only four month younger), and Mike Carp, who was the American League Rookie of the Month in August by hitting .313 with six homeruns and 25 RBI after posting a .343/.411/.649/1.060 line in only 251 at-bats at Triple A last season.
um the reds in a half a second. the only guy on their roster who could get a return of both of them would be felix. otherwise hell no!
So the Reds wouldn’t trade a guy – good as he is – that they can’t really use for Andrew Bailey? Cincy’s going to have to figure out that Alonso does them little good playing AAA-ball for another year and the rest of the league is wise. The Reds just aren’t in a position to make a market here.
they will trade him but not for a closer
They can easily dump Heisy and slot Alonzo in a corner spot if they wanted to. But they need pitching and he’s one of their best trade pieces.
Just because he is blocked by Votto doesn’t devalue Alonso anymore than Bailey’s injury history doesn’t devalue him according to A’s fans 🙂
I haven’t watched any Alonso in LF. Is he passable out there? If so some sort of Jurrjens + x for Alonso + x would work out for both teams. Maybe Jurrjens and a good relief prospect like Hoover for Alonso and Janish? With Alonso and Janish our offseason shopping would pretty much be done outside of moving Prado if someone wows us.
He´s not passable in LF, he´s like Adam Dunn but with a backpack, well, he´s awful right there, really, would be a lot of inside the park homers…
A -3.9 for a guy unfamiliar with the position isn’t horrible. He needs time to adjust.
well its pretty horrible in the context of 110 innings. i’ll buy the unfamiliarity a bit, but my first thought is that he may lack the physical ability to play out there, especially in the long term.
no he allowed tony campana to have a inside the park homer at wrigley
I’d want JJ + Prado +Delgado for Frazier + Alonso personally but only if the Braves were confident in Freeman or Alonso in LF and I have heard Freddie’s got a gun.
JJ+Prado+Delgado= superstar return. Not Alonso.
Joey Votto, and even then with Freeman at 1B they would’t be interested
He had some really awkward moments out there, no denying it and it seemed to happen the most in his first trip to an unfamiliar ball park. But there were times where he looked passable … which I could live with as long as he continues to hit the way he did at the end of the year.
JJ for Alonso straight up and then trade him for a LF?
If a team got Alonso for a closer, that’d be a steal.
alonso 4 bailey would work out great for both teams
no it wouldnt…we need a starter…not a closer
fine we’ll package bailey and cahill for alonso and some other prospects of yours
im not sure cahill is an ace…
it says in the article there looking for a number 2 starter
i think they would probably need someone more proven
The artcile is lying. We need a number 1. I’m not convinced Cueto is a true Ace.
I think the article understands that aces don’t grow on trees, and nobody is going to trade one to the Reds for a 24 year old first base prospect.
I can understand why Reds fans want a starter for Alonso, but come on…
Brett Lawrie was a more valuable commodity at the time of the Marcum trade than Alonso is and most people regarded that trade as being pretty fair for both teams at the time it was made. On that basis, expect a starter of slightly less value than Marcum for two years or substantially less value for more years in exchange for Alonso.
That or a really good reliever.
Bailey is a reliever. Top 50 prospects for relievers is never a smart move.
I’d love for the Braves to jump on that. Reds probably want someone better than Jurrjens, and I don’t know that Jurrjens + Prado (if Phillips walks) makes much more sense. If the Reds didn’t like either of those but were willing to take prospects I’d totally trade Delgado plus a low minors something interesting.
Seriously? There’s just no matchup here at all. Where would Alonzo play, anyway? Looks like few think he could even be passable in LF, and we’ve kinda got this first base thing figured out already. Moreover, Phillips is signed (whether he likes it or not) for 2012, so Prado isn’t a trade option… and a Jurrjens trade would command a heckuva lot more than even a top prospect alone – hopefully a decent (proven) Major League bat.
I do think that a Jurrjens-like pitcher is what Cincy would like to get, but unless there’s a Zambrano in their future (no), I agree that the Tampa idea makes a ton more sense.
He’d have to either be able to play in LF, or he’d be an upgrade over Hinske as a bench bat/DH/occasional LF/1B.
If I was to offer, it would be JJ+Hinske for Alonso+ prospect.
They’re not going to trade Jurrjens for a bench bat lol.
He’d start in LF, barring a signing of Beltran or some elite bat.
So not just a bench bat. More interleague means more DH also.
I think Jeff Niemann and Sam Fuld for Alonso sounds fair.
Take away Fuld and you’re set. Niemann is a proven starter in the AL East. Alonso is not as good as people make him out to be.
No matchup? Reds want pitching, Braves have pitching. Braves want a corner OF bat, Alonso “can” be a corner (power) OF bat. And like it or not, no one is as high on Jurrjens as we want them to be because of his peripherals.
Just do Alonso for Bailey already Reds, Alonso is getting too old and no one wants a 1B except Oakland. Bailey is a fantastic reliever, the epitome of a closer and is cost controlled for a while. Both teams win.
i totally agree
Yeah you agree because you’re getting an everyday player for a reliever.
Is Yonder Alonso spanish for Joe Koshansky or Matt Laporta?
except for the fact where the reds get a guy who pitches at most 60 innings for a guy who plays everyday
fine get brad lidge or something and keep alonso at AAA until he’s 29, thats smart
Just like “I have this valuable commodity I’ll trade for less than it’s worth because of reasons!”
or just trade him for a starter….
Jeff Niemann
So the only team interested in the MLB is Oakland? Didn’t know we had real life insider’s on this site.
Who else needs a 1B and has announced they have SP’s available? Just Oakland as far as I’ve seen.
So teams have to announce they have something available before they’re allowed to make a trade? Man this new CBA is killin’ me.
The A’s can keep Bailey and play Daric Barton at 1B.
A closer doesn’t do much good if your team is down by 5 in the 9th inning. Why use Alonzo to obtain a closer the same year they changed the CBA to make sure that a free agent reliever like Madson, Bell, Francisco or K-Rod won’t cost a pick? Just sign one of the FA closers and use Alonzo to fill more pressing needs.
Gio and Cardenas for Alonzo, Hamilton and a mid-level prospect sounds fair.
They dont have the money to sign free agents thats why we are making trades.
A) Starters are more important than closers.
B) Starters are more expensive than closers and if there is a money crunch then it makes sense to use one of your best assets to obtain a starter.
C) Haven’t heard that they weren’t able to add ANY salary and they have about $15-$18 mil off the books from Cordero, Renteria, Hernandez, Gomes and others.
The Rays do…need a 1B and a DH.
Seems to me the Rays already have a Yonder Alonso in the system. His name is Russ Canzler, one year older than Alonso but put up good numbers in AAA this year: .314/.401/.530 vs Alonso’s .303/.379/.498 split between AAA and MLB. Early projections also have Alonso around an .800 OPS for 2012, nothing earth shattering for a first baseman. While having Canzler at 1B isn’t ideal, I don’t see Alonso as much of an upgrade and certainly would not trade Shields for him.
Two bats putting up those numbers is better than what we had last year, and probably keeps us ahead of Boston, and closer to NY.
Yonder Alonso for Henderson Alvarez straight up anybody?
Can’t see Toronto doing that deal. They really like Alvarez and have Lind for now at 1B. He’s obviously not ideal, but I don’t think they’d give up a 21 year old arm like HA for another 1B.
I think the Reds need a more ready-now player, but that would be a fleecing by the Jays if it went through. Alonso is an upgrade over any 1B option they have and Alvarez is no sure bet to even make the bigs and is even having injury issues already. Alvarez makes no sense for the Reds who are trying to win now.
Are you confused as to who Henderson Alvarez is? He’s already IN the big leagues and isn’t hurt. He made 10 starts for Toronto down the stretch.
I’m not saying he’s some superstar, I’m just curious if you’re thinking of a different player
It appears I have. I still think both teams win with an Alvarez-Alonso straight swap even though the Reds are convinced he can bring in a legit #2 starter, when Alvarez isn’t that level yet.
Henderson Alvarez is now the number 3 pitcher for the Jays and every scout on the planet refers to him as Felix Hernandez 2.0. That is how good he is. He throws 100mph and more importantly, he can put the ball on the eye of a pin, anytime he wants. It would cost Alonso plus prospects to even consider moving Toronto’s future ace in 2013, if he doesn’t take over the #1 spot in 2012.
No scout on the planet refers to him as Felix Hernandez 2.0. He just came up young (not nearly as young as Felix, mind you) and his favourite pitcher is Hernandez. But when Felix came up, he already had a hammer curve and slider. Alvarez has no real breaking ball to speak of yet. And Felix was an ace already at the age Alvarez is now.
He’s a very solid, young arm, but let’s not go nuts.
Have you seen his slider?!
He’s not gonna be as good as Felix Hernandez, but he’s gonna make it close.
I have seen his slider, and it’s VEEERRRRRRRRRRRY inconsistent. It backs up more often than it breaks. He also doesn’t miss nearly as many bats as Felix.
He won’t make it close, but that’s because 99% of the pitchers in professional baseball won’t make it close. He’ll (hopefully) be a top of the rotation guy though.
You and cyberboo are both setting yourselves up for major disappointment if you’re expecting him to be anywhere near the pitcher that Felix is. Maybe he does make it to something close to that at some point, but expecting it is a terrible idea.
No no no, saying he’s gonna make it close is a bit of a mistake on my part – he has the stuff and the potential to make it close; we’ll see eventually… but he’s got plus stuff, and is still very young.
He does have a slider in the works. The Jays back stops were forcing him to throw it the last 5-6 games he pitched. It is a work in progress, but apparently shows promise.
Exactly. “In the works.” It’s VERY much a work in progress and there’s no guarantee that it actually ever becomes a plus or even average pitch
Last year in Seatle, Alverez met Felix (born in same city) and got his input. Mariners’ manager impressed and prized Alverez as a future Felix after watching his came.
That’s not a scout. That’s hyperbole from the opposing manager.
The kid who has never stuck out more than 6.6/9 IP?
The kid who fangraphs has averaging 93.3 mph last year?
Or the kid who threw his FB 72% of the time?
I think you are overhyping this kid. Think Joba. Let’s wait and see before you suggest he’s going to be better than Romero in 2012.
He was clocked at 100 in AA, and he hit 99 at the futures game. His K/9 is puzzling considering the filthy stuff he has, a lot like Jarred Cosart. Jays fans are overhyping him as much as Yankee fans are with Banuelos.
he’s never struck out 7 per 9 in his entire professional career
If you look at Roy Halladay, he’s had similar stuff all his career, and his K/9 numbers didn’t see a substantial increase until Rod Barajas became his catcher in his final season with the Jays…
Not saying Alvarez is going to be as good as Doc, but why the HELL are you knocking a guy for not posting high K/9 numbers? It’s not about strikeouts… it’s about outs.
If you look at Roy Halladay, he’s had similar stuff all his career, and his K/9 numbers didn’t see a substantial increase until Rod Barajas became his catcher in his final season with the Jays…
Not saying Alvarez is going to be as good as Doc, but why the HELL are you knocking a guy for not posting high K/9 numbers? It’s not about strikeouts… it’s about outs.
I just report the facts ‘bro. That’s what was listed at fangraphs. As for Bans, it’s not hype…it’s called a scouting report. No one made a declaration such as “He’s going to be as good as Felix Hernandez or he’ll take over the #1 spot on a staff lead by ROmero in 2012”. That’s hype.
PS- 96 mph isn’t the same as 100 mph but that’s what Nova throws and he doesn’t miss as many bats as one would think. Neither has Alvarez….even in the minors.
He may well be a future star but let’s give more weight to the stats and not just the fact he hit 100 mph on the clock. So did Joba.
wouldnt be surprised if the gun at the futures game is a little generous. in the bigs we saw him run it up there 96-98 on occasion, but generally sitting 91-95.
i think the exciting thing about him is the fact that he has a fairly high floor. plus fastball, plus change-up and plus control should make him an above average pitcher for a long time. if he manages to add the third pitch he could be really special.
he’s really a prospect that came out of nowhere. started as a third baseman, moved to the mound and then just this year found an extra gear in his fastball.
obviously the felix comps are ridiculous, but if it were my decision i would value him over alonso, and by a fair bit too.
Maybe but he is pretty darn good. Mid 90’s 2-seamer/sinking fastball which he can locate well and has a solid change-up. The slider isn’t there yet but he’s shown the ability to throw a lot of strikes, not walk many, and get groundballs. He doesn’t get a whole lot of K’s but he’s got a big arm and induces weak contact. The K’s might come if he can develop that slider into a good pitch but he’ll never be a 8-9 K/9 type guy. If he can get into it 6-7 range, he’ll be excellent.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.. the Reds WILL NOT get a #2 starter for Alonso.
I agree, I don’t know why they think they can…but adding Grandal and other pieces might.
I don’t think anyone is suggesting it would be a one for one deal but certainly he can headline a deal for one.
Last August, at age 21, Alvarez started pitching in the majors. When AA first took over as Jays GM two and a half years ago, he identified Alvarez as their best prospect.
I will be shocked if AA sees Alonso as equal value for Alvarez.
Not clear to me that Alonso really is any better than Lind, Cooper, or EE to play 1B for the jays.
It seems very clear to me.
clean your screen.
i kind of agree. its funny how similar cooper and alonso look when you line them up
drafted the same year, pretty much the same age.
career minor league numbers
cooper .299/.373/.462
alonso .293/.370/.466
both can take a walk, both have shown fringy power (for 1B’s). (i guess it should be noted that cooper maybe had a leg up since he was playing in the PCL this year, and at a good park for lefties in new hampshire last year. I dont know anything about the places alonso played at.)
now it could be one of those things where the numbers dont tell the whole story. just like how brett lawrie’s AA numbers last year werent mind blowing, but it was obvious to people who saw him that he was an elite talent. however there are people like goldstein who view alonso as kind of an average at best 1B. i’m not sure i’d be willing to give anything of value up for him, the jays already have enough average at best 1B’s, and lind and EE still have upside.
Alvarez is going nowhere; he throws 90-94, with the ability to touch 100, with the nastiest moving fastball I’ve ever seen. It’s like Verlanders fastball with sink to it… Don’t believe me… watch the footage…
mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18679735
I watched that game and the Orioles went the whole game without hitting a ball to the outfield. All the outs were via strikeout or ground out. That is how dominating he can be during his career. The guy doesn’t walk anyone either, so he is never beating himself.
The kid looks promising, but shutting down the Orioles isn’t exactly the best way to determine how shut down he can be.
As far as Alonso goes, if the reds want an established #1 or #2 they will have to add to the package. If they want a straight up trade then one of the young pitchers from TB or someone of that same ilk makes sense.
Lind is OK right now. Jays can wait until Votto become available. Alonso is not upgrade to Lind. Lind has 20 or more HRs over last 3 seasons. He has a trade value and Jays can get good return when Votto become avilable. Personnaly, I think David Cooper is much better (PL MVP last year) than Alonso.
man… jays fans like you are the reason ppl hate on jays fans….. cooper better than alonso that has to be a joke… if you are serious then you either havent seen alonso or you over hype jays like crazy lind sucks and so does cooper
to be fair to Lind when he was Alonso’s age he was in his third MLB Season and hit .305/.370/.562 with 35 HR and 46 2B’s if anything Lind’s performance since might make them more hesitant to move proven pitchers for 1B/DH types
I think he was implying Alonso is becoming a “money-ball” player because of unmet expectations. Thus, marketable to Tampa for reasons similar to Cooper being attractive to Tampa.
What the hell has Alonso done? Cooper is more proven in the Minors, and Lind is more proven in the MLB… So you’re either retarded, or just smoking the same stuff the reds are…
Until Alonso completes an MLB season, Lind and Cooper BOTH have a statistical advantage over Alonso.
What the hell has Alonso done? Cooper is more proven in the Minors, and Lind is more proven in the MLB… So you’re either retarded, or just smoking the same stuff the reds are…
Until Alonso completes an MLB season, Lind and Cooper BOTH have a statistical advantage over Alonso.
“with the nastiest moving fastball I’ve ever seen”
Been watching baseball for a year, have we?
Clearly someone didn’t watch the footage…
Play collegiate ball then gimme a call 😉
within that one highlight, he got six outs (2 DP to get out of jams) on pitches down the middle. that’s nothing to brag about, and makes for a very different kind of highlight against a better lineup
To be fair, he throws a 2-seamer/sinking and has good movement on the pitches so if it is down the middle, it can fool some hitters. If I remember correctly, Orioles were pretty hot at that time.
Either way, its not really good to use highlights of his best start to determine anything.
I think he can be a really good pitcher. He’s got the stuff, poise and throws tons of strikes and he is just 21. I don’t know if he will get there but he’s got the potential.
anybody can get away with a sinker over the middle sometimes. that doesn’t make it any less of a red flag
as you mentioned, the kid has a plus fastball, good control, and the potential to develop a plus slider. he’s very young and has a high ceiling. that’s a lot of positives and that’s all anyone should be saying. this stuff about 100 MPH and “nastiest fastball ever” and “felix hernandez” is just goofy
Agreed, that’s a lot of exaggeration from some of the Jays fans. I lol’d at the “nastiest fastball ever” comment.
Probably young kids….and if so….for them, it would be “nastiest fastball ever” lol
100 MPH is not an exaggeration…
Clearly you’ve never watched a game where he’s pitched, his fastball may not be the “nastiest ever” but it has the most movement I’ve seen in recent memory… (there are other guys with good heaters, but you get the idea)
Let’s not get nit picky here.
Just finished sweeping Boston if I remember correctly.
Highlights were just to showcase the movement on his fastball.
Pineda, League, Triunfel and Figgins +16 millions for Votto, Grandal and Frazier makes sense for both sides…
Hehe, what? That makes sense for both sides of Seattle, maybe. That package wouldn’t be enough to get Votto alone, let alone Votto, Grandal and Alonso.
Triunfel’s star has really faded, League is a reliever and Figgins is terrible. Pineda is obviously legit, but you don’t trade a perennial MVP candidate, his top prospect replacement AND a good catching prospect for that.
Alonso would not be in the package, only 2 years of Votto and Grandal for Pineda, League , Triunfel and Figgins, maybe Vargas or Beavan too..
grandal would not be a free agent after two years….we just drafted him
2 years of Votto, Grandal is still in the minors
oh okay
Seems I misread it. My apologies.
Either way, Votto doesn’t go for a young stud pitcher and a bunch of filler. He would go to a team that had 2-3 star pieces, if at all.
LOL. So does that mean a team like Colorado can trade Street, Stewart, Field, and some cash for Ackley, Hernandez, and Moore?
See now Cincy is a place I could see Gio going. Alonso + would make sense for both teams.
ya but they would have to give up alonso plus some other good prospects
Sure, but Cincy really needs pitching, and Oakland really needs a 1B (and offense in general).
yepp i agree
i dont know if they would take him with his issue with walks
haha dude look at his era and k number the guy is solid haha u think there going to get lyk a halladay calliber pitcher for him they wont
no but im just saying the reds already have issues with walks…it would be interesting and i dont think they could get halladay for him, but their looking for a 1 or 2 guy and have a good enough farm to give up some people to get one
aight i gotcha
im sure they would bite though
The best the Reds will get for Alonso straight up will be a Number 3-4 starter, and a C+/B- level prospect.
thats why i said give up some ppl, not just yonder
Yeah, I know that that is a concern with him, but he is still a pretty good pitcher and is a lot better than what the Reds currently have. Plus Alonso is blocked (and currently being shopped) so if they could get Gio for Alonso plus a couple other guys I think it would be a good deal for them.
Alonso, Grandal and Homer Bailey probably get Gio & Andrew Bailey.
i could see this happening
That’d be pretty interesting actually.
Mmm, I don’t know. Didn’t they ask for at least Morrison or Stanton for Gio as a starting place? Those are two proven players (if only somewhat in Morrison’s case), and Alonso and Grandal are both just prospects, albeit ones with high potential. I think if they’re giving up both Gio and Bailey they would ask for at least a little more than those three.
Buster Olney said the A’s never asked the Marlins for anything and the teams hadn’t done anything other than have preliminary talks. Who to believe? I dunno man, its hot stove season where journalists literally make things up and lie to create stories. I’d be pretty happy if I got paid to write a wishcasting article and have mlbTR pick it up and run it like it actually really was happening!
I doubt that. I personally think Beane will get quite a package for Gio, probably one at least as good as the one your offering for Gio and Bailey both. They’ll go in seperate trades to maximize the return unless the Reds offer up much more then what you have here. I personally think Gio will end up in pinstripes for a package including Montero and one of Banuelos/Betances. As much as I can’t stand em, they could probably offer the most impressive package of both position players and pitchers.
Gardner, Montero, one of the B’s and another player could get the Yankees just about any young SP they wanted. If they swap those 4 for Gio as an A’s fan I’d be so excited, thats really the ultimate turnaround I think of that’s in the realm of possibility.
Or the Reds could offer Jay Bruce for Gio straight up and I’d be equally as happy.
The Yankees are never going to trade Montero AND one of those young pitchers for Gio Gonzalez. If they packaged those players, they can do better than Gio.
I don’t see what the big deal with Yonder Alonso is… as far as I’m concerned he’s a AAAA guy; in 1340 AB’s in the minors, he’s only hit 36 dingers…
He’s not that good.
Yonder’s career has been really similar to Youkilis’ to this point actually. Beane absolutely loves those guys.
I do not think Gio Gonzalez is worth Yonder; there would have to be a lot more coming back from the Reds side if the A’s were to make a deal.
The Reds are over hyping and over valuing him.
As a Jays fan, I compare him to Travis Snider; who’s younger, has had more plate appearances in the minors, and posted a higher OPS.
What the Reds are doing is basically setting the market value for a guy like Snider, who could end up being more valuable.
If the Reds think Andrew Bailey isn’t enough for Alonso, then what could the Jays get for Snider…
MiLB Stats:
Alonso 24 (4 seasons): 313 GP, 1340 AB, 345 H, 36 HR, 179 RBI, .293 BA, .370 OBP, .466 SLG, .837 OPS
Snider 23 (6 seasons): 439 GP, 1887 AB, 508 H, 73 HR, 325 RBI, .306 BA, .379 OBP, .522 SLG, .901 OPS
Discuss!!
Snider has proven that he has struggled at the major league level and Alonzon (given it’s a small sample size) has had a great showing thus far?
OBVIOUSLY, Alonzo has much to prove but right now the Reds are selling high. It’s what Snider HAS proven (that he’s been overmatched) vs what Alonzo has yet to prove and right now Alonzo has more trade value.
Besides, Blue Jays are usually the number one buyer when a player like Snider is placed on the trade market.
Snider’s battled injuries, and an old-ass manager (Cito) who didn’t give him playing time when it was due…
Alonso… well, you spelled his name with a Z so that shows how much you know 😉 (J/K)
Once they both complete a full season at the MLB level, we’ll see – but as of now, based on numbers alone, Snider appears more valuable.
I couldnt care less how he did in the minors, he raked it in his month he was up here. I say hes worth more than bailey but less then say wade davis.
Kevin Youkilis in the minors: 1421 AB’s, 31 HR
Kevin Youkilis in the majors: 3206 AB’s, 129 HR
Power isn’t always a thing that hitters develop right away. You need plate discipline first.
yonder for justin masterson?
and what?
Yonder / Frazier / Bailey for Masterson / Chris Perez
Orioles get him.
Gonzo and Cahill benefit greatly from Oakland’s ballpark, pass.
Getting one free out every time through the order should even things up.
Its pretty dumb to write off 23 and 25 year olds who are already regulars. They are so far from their ceilings its not funny.
Alonso/Grandal/Heisey to Tampa for James Sheilds
Reds get a front line starter to make their top 3 Cueto/Shields/Leake
Tampa fills two big holes at 1B and C with cost controlled prospects, one who is ready, another who is near ready, and they get a versitile 4th OF who can play all 3 spots and provide power off the bench.
so we have no lf then
Sorry, didn’t read all the comments before posting below…pretty much the same thought as yours.
I’d prefer- Alonso, Mesoraco and Stubbs
CalvaryCougar’s comments are hilarious. Everybody is throwing ideas into the open, and all he’s doing is shooting them down because HE [assumption, correct me if I’m wrong though] doesn’t like them.
Who in the world WOULD you trade Alonso for? Verlander? Felix? Sure…Anyway, Alonso holds less value to the Reds than he does to any other team, really. He’s blocked, no other way around that point. Ship him out while his value is at its highest. And yes, that might be for a closer, albeit a very good one.
no im just saying from watching the reds all year i know what their needs are, and its a starter, plus im just having some fun!
Well according to my boy over at Yahoo, he’s saying they’re gonna include him in a package for a closer if it comes to that also. And I hate labeling pitchers as #2 or #3 or something.. Simply because one starts in that slot doesn’t mean he’s talented enough to pitch directly behind the ace. So what constitutes as a #2 to you might be far different than any other definition Jocketty would propose.
closer is the 2nd issue we face, finding a starter is the first. walt just said this
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t value closers anywhere NEAR a starter. But if Jocketty wants to hand over Alonso for a mere closer, hey, I wouldn’t say no to giving you Brandon League + something else.
above, “about Alonso, though we heard earlier this week that the Reds thought Alonso was too much to give up for Oakland closer Andrew Bailey.”
Actually it says they DON’T think Bailey is worth trading Alonzo. That would indicate that while Bailey is a good closer they think Alonzo is worth more than a closer and would instead prefer to use him to fetch a starter.
I propose, Alonso, Grandal, Wood (Or Bailey), and a low level for Shields.
Cincinnati then saves money on a closer by NOT trading for Andrew Bailey, being wise by moving Sam Lecure to the closer role as a great in house option till boxberger is ready. Make Heisey the everyday left fielder, the guy dominated in just the few at bats he had!
Cincinnati Reds opening day lineup
2bPhillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
RF Bruce
3B Rolen
LF Heisey
CF Stubbs
C Mesoraco
Rotation
Shields
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Chapman
Pen
Long reliever Bailey or Wood (Whichever isn’t traded)
Boxberger
Bray
Ondrusek
Arredondo
Masset Or Jeremy Horst (Need another lefty)
Closer- Lecure
Andrew Bailey isn’t going to be expensive anytime soon, if ever.
Yeah but he’s still money in general. No reason to pay for a closer (The most overrated position in baseball) when Lecure can do it for SUPER cheap till Boxberger is ready.
Andrew Bailey is arbitration-eligible this offseason.
Angels anyone?
Sign CJ Wilson then trade Ervin Santana and possibly someone else for Alonso?
They could then dump Abreu and would have probably more than $10M in salary relief from he and Santana to go after a legit closer. Trumbo moves to 3B and Morales becomes full-time DH.
SS Aybar
2B Kendrick
RF Hunter
DH Morales
3B Trumbo
1B Alonso
LF Wells
C Conger
CF Bourjos
Would that work?
The deal makes some sense, but you would want Alonso to DH… he’s even slow at first base…
Wait, Trumbo at 3B? What evidence at all is there that he could play third?
Didn’t Alonso play a little 3B this year? Not saying he is any good (probably terrible), but if his defense is passable i could somewhat see it happen.
Trumbo is not going to be a regular player on a good team going forward. He’s essentially the second coming of Mike Jacobs. Angels would be best to trade him while his value is high.
Also what did you do with Abreu, Trout & Callaspo?
He could be. He’s continuously trying to improve. His swing doesn’t have as many non-fixable holes in his swing compared to Jacobs.
As I said above, dump (cut/release) or try to trade Abreu. DiPoto (new Angels GM) and Scioscia said if Trout doesn’t outright win a starting OF job in spring, that he would start the season in AAA.
Callaspo becomes a bench player.
You’re joking right? Comparing HA to Verlander & Felix… He’s a number 3 starter, with a little bit more upside. He throws hard, but flat…hence his very low k/9. Besides, the Jays have at least 4 more starters, with as much and likely more upside, only a year behind Alverez’s schedule.
I’m not saying I would trade him for Alonzo, but don’t act like he’s the next Cy Young.
His fastball is the exact opposite of flat. It moves like crazy. The reason he doesn’t get many Ks is the lack of a strong breaking ball at the moment.
Last season, at age 21, Alvarez was the youngest pitcher in the majors to get at least a 1.0 WAR. Not bad for a guy called up in August.
My advice is to watch out for the guy. He will impress.
* edit * to keep things in perspective, I must qualify info with Madison Bumgarner being 9 months older than Alvarez. So, although not as good as Bumgarner, Alvarez is still impressive.
Alvarez isn’t even close to Bumgarner. The Blue Jays have 4 -5 pitchers in the pipeline that project to be as good or better than Alvarez…that makes him expendable. To be an ace, like everyone on here seems to be projecting him to be, you have to be able to strike guys out. Alvarez can’t do that. He’s #3 starter, 2 at best. Which is fine, more than fine! But stop acting like he’s the next Felix or Verlander, you’ll only disappoint yourself.
While I don’t pretend to know Alvarez’s future, he posted a 5.7k/9 which is better then a couple of years Halladay posted while he was a Jay and finished top 5 in CY voting. If Alvarez can develop a third pitch he should be able to drive his k’s up pretty decently. If not he’ll be put in the ‘pen.
Nope…wasn’t trying to imply Alvarez, 1.0 WAR pitcher at age 21, is the same or better than Bumgarner, a 5.5 WAR pitcher at age 21/22.
However, getting 1.0 WAR at age 21 in 10 starts is nothing to dismiss. Not many pitchers do this well this soon.
At age 21 Joba had a 0.9 WAR for 24 IP during his September call up. He averaged 97 mph on his FB. See how that’s not enough to go on?
PS- I was and am still a big fan of Joba but you MUST temper some of these statements with some rationale.
Sure…and I remember 21 year old Balor Moore in 1972 having an impressve rookie year for Montreal Expos and never impressing afterwards. I don’t think it is necessary to add “no guarantees or promises” qualification to an impressive 21 year-old prospect. I am confident it is implicitly understood by most on this board.
You’re joking right? Comparing HA to Verlander & Felix… He’s a number 3 starter, with a little bit more upside. He throws hard, but flat…hence his very low k/9. Besides, the Jays have at least 4 more starters, with as much and likely more upside, only a year behind Alverez’s schedule.
I’m not saying I would trade him for Alonzo, but don’t act like he’s the next Cy Young.
alvarez does not throw flat at all, he gets a ridiculous amount of sink hence all the groundballs. he cant strike guys out because he lacks a really good breaking pitch (tho he does have an excellent change).
i definitely wouldnt give up alvarez for alonso, the kid is above average at worst and with some work on his slider he could be elite.
To get Shields would take Votto. Other players can be mixed in, but it’s certainly not going to be Shields for Alonso. The Rays aren’t going to re-sign Shields anymore than they will Votto, but they have a surpluss in pitching, so they would move Shields for an impact bat. Alonso is not going to be an impact bat.
It wouldn’t be for Votto….Alonso, Grandal or Mesoraco, and a couple of more prospects.
Wow, Shields has one good year and all of a sudden he’s worth an entire farm system.
If this was offered Shields wouldn’t be on the Rays right now I can assure you.
You apparently haven’t seen Shields pitch much, it’s not that he’s had one good year, it’s that he had a bad 2010…his other years have been pretty solid, and even 2010, his numbers were seriously elevated because of his worst 3 starts. Look at his numbers and pull his worst start from them, and the reconfigure his stats, they’ll look solid.
Plus, a top of the rotation starter in the ALE, is usually much better elsewhere. There’s a reason they call him “Big Game James”.
“Pretty solid.” There you go. You said it yourself. He had one awesome season in a “pretty solid” career. You want the Reds to pay for 2011 James Shields when there’s a good chance they’d get pre-2011 James Shields.
Pretty solid in that division puts you in the CY race elsewhere(Ian Kennedy anyone?)
Pre 2011 Shields is still a 1 or 2 on a lot of teams.
I have watched him pitch which is why I made that comment. He’s only had one all-star type year which would even remotely garner such a trade scenario.
Being “pretty solid” is VERY different especially when we’re talking about several top tier prospects, two of which would start for TB immediately.
“To get Shields would take Votto.” LOL. Look at Shields’ career pre-2011. One good year and now he’s worth an MVP first baseman? Nope.
Shields’ career xFIP is 3.66, averaging 225+ innings last 5 years in AL EAST. Even at his worst year 2010, his xFIP was 3.55. Matt Garza(2010 FIP 4.31, 2011 FIP 2.98) and Vasquez (2010 FIP 5.57, 2011 FIP 3.59) tell being solid in that division means a lot.
Too much hype on Alonso. He managed some good numbers for tiny sample in big league. But his minor numbers are nothing special. Every advanced stats show that he is capable of 15-20 homers at maximum given his minor stats. His September line is OPS .750. His BABIP this season was .387. Bill James predicts Alonso number as average of .277 with 11 homers for 2012. Alonso playing LF is like Adam Dunn playing LF with full body armor carrying kevlar inside. OPS .750 ~ .790 guy playing LF with nightmare defense, who is soon to be 25, some Reds fans have high expectations at him but seriously, he is no more than Travis Snider as of now.
When will these people realize that getting Andrew Bailey for Alonso straight up is actually a trade that heavily favors the Reds?
The Reds want starters? Alonso would probably get you Josh Outman & Graham Godfrey or something. Not Gio or Cahill.
Just because the guy doesn’t get you a starter straight up doesn’t mean you should trade him for a reliever instead. He could definitely headline a deal for a Gio or Cahill type pitcher, which is what I think the Reds will likely do with him.
His minor league numbers look mediocre because he broke his wrist. It takes over a year to regain power after that injury. Those MiLB numbers are what the projection systems use, and the computers don’t account for things like his wrist injury. When you say “Bill James predicts” what you really mean is “Baseball Info Solutions’ projection system predicts Alonso (sic) number (sic) as average (sic) of .277 with 11 homers for 2012.” Bill James has nothing to do with the projection system, they just use his name.
Wade Davis for Alonso.
Alonso’s September line is .287 .323 .423. His career high homer number was 12. Without any lucks being involved, realistic expectation for Alonso would be .280 .340 .440 with average to mediocre defensive play at 1B. Which has some values, but even that would require when-all-goes-well plus not even close to all star caliber 1B.
I still think Yonder, Grandal and Juan Francisco for Shields and one of McGee/Howell/Gomes is a good trade.
Where would Francisco play? Not 1st (Alonso), 3rd (Longo) or OF…
Do they need a DH?
Yes
Then Francisco can be their DH, where he is best suited.
Alonso, Grandal, and a third spec (Corcino?) for Shields…
I think that’d be too much. Corcino lit up Low-A and is arguably their best pitching prospect. That’s three “A” prospects, if you will, for Shields. I think a “B” prospect in place of Corcino would be enough though since they are already getting Yonder and Grandal.
Alonso – B+, Grandal – B+, Corcino – B prosepcts.
It’s to bad the Mn Twins have let their talent pool get vortex’d to hell. They could really use some of the Reds Prospects (Todd Fraizer, Alonso, and Fransisco amungst others)
I don’t even know if Liriano would get back 2 of those 3 ….hell maybe not even 1.
Anyways, the problem here is about value and market. Everyone in the league knows that the Reds have to ‘poop or get off the pot’ on Alonso…another year in the minors would pretty much solidify his spot as a AAAA player. Someone earlier showed that he isn’t a
big bopper and a 20 HR season is likely his peak…but he should be a .310+ hitter with limited power and is a defensive liability, anywhere not 1B.
They finally came out and made him available….awesome. But it’s about 2 years to late.
Once Votto had his breakout season they should’ve put the word out then. Waiting has
not only limited their choices (as teams that may have been interested have either developed their own prospects or went out and signed F/A’s) but it’s also limited their
power in any trade.
They want a #2 for him…but they may have to settle for a #3 (or give up another big
named prospect like Grandal /Messarasco (unlikely)) just to get something back for
their 2008 draft misstep when they should’ve nabbed Gordon Beckham.
If the Rays wanted Grandal and Alonso and something else for Shields…I think they
have to do it. The Rays have a bevy of arms on the bring of being MLB ready and
Shields already has a ton of innings on that right arm. Right now that’s my odds on
favorite to “win” any Yonder derby.
Yea, I agree with everything you said. Alonzo is obviously not a outfielder so they need to move him (needed to move him years ago) and the Rays match up well.
Danks + Thornton for Alonso + good pitching prospect
You’d hear Kenny Williams laughing from coast to coast, if the Reds offered that.
Top lefty starter, top lefty reliever for a top 1B prospect that is being blocked and serves only as trade bait to the Reds + a good pitching prospect.
Sounds solid to me. White Sox would probably have to kick in a little cash for Thornton though.
Why would they trade him when they are getting him to train to be a LF this offseason? Then they would need a LF again. This makes no sense at all and I really doubt they will trade him unless the deal is HUGE! (Where we get three of your top prospects and one or two of your top pitchers)
Stop throwing in all of the Reds top prospects hoping they will trade them all for one of your teams bums. It makes no sense at all. And the Reds don’t make trades like that anymore. We got rid of Wayne Krivsky remember?
funny guy right here
1 top prospect = 3 top prospects + 2 ML ready pitchers? No team would do that for Votto much less Alonso.
Tell you what, Lind used to be a LF. Him for Alonso straight up. Not so fun on the other end of crazy is it?
Carlos Marmol + Matt Garza for Rolen, Yonder, and a pitching prospect.
Cubs will get a 3rd baseman and 1st base man and Reds get a cheap closer and very good #2.
You want Marmol? Heaven help the Reds!
Sold!
The Cubs are rebuilding so what would they want with Rolen? Marmol and Garza separately should net a good return.
Let’s see if Epstein “games” the new system. If so, he holds onto Garza and gives him min qualifying offer (approx $12.5) in his free agent year to get Type A compensation.
He’s better off trading him vs waiting to get a pick.
in what alternate universe is marmol cheap?? the guy gets $7mill next year and almost $10mill the year after.
the universe where Rafael Soriano, KRod, and Papelbon exist
haha touche
Shields + Barnese (C+) + Fleming (C+) for Alonso(B+), Grandal(B+), Hanigan and Corcino(B).
Why do teams need two catchers? Is this a new development in baseball?
for the reds, hanigan is mentoring mesoraco. we dont know that mes is a sure thing and hanigan is the best back up catcher in baseball. he’s cheap, he hits okay, and manages pitchers really well.
Why would you trade for two catchers in the same deal? Who would that leave besides Meseroco to catch for the Reds? (Hernandez probably isn’t going to resign).
I think maybe a three way deal between the Braves, Reds, and Rays would work out for all three teams. Alonso to the Rays, Jurrjens to the Reds, and BJ Upton to the Braves. Atlanta would have a LF who is right handed, has speed and power, and Upton could always move to CF if the Braves fail to resign Bourn. Upton needs a change, and I think moving from the AL East into the NL would be a good change for him. Alonso could go to the Rays and instantly become their everyday starter at 1b, which is a position they are in need of badly. Jurrjens goes to the Reds, and becomes their #2 starter they say they are looking for.
Bourne & Upton both reach free agency in the same year.
I’d rather have Alonso ,even if he’s another LH bat and a poor LFer, then Upton
My idea for a direct trade: Jurrjens and Hinske (clear up roster space) for Alonso+ prospect.
Yonder Alonso for Joel Hanrahan. 🙂
The Pirates would be crazy not to offer that. Although I don’t think the Reds will want to trade within the division. I’d be willing to add Alex Presley or Charlie Morton or a prospect like Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson or Robbie Grossman to get Alonso.
Wandy Rodriguez for Alonso?
Doesn’t sound that crazy to me. Last year, Shaun Marcum got you Brett Lawrie and Carlos Villanueva.
Villanueva? He was a FA signing I believe. The trade was Marcum for Lawrie straight up.
Villanueva was dealt three days before the Lawrie/Marcum swap for a PTBNL.
Yep…and PTBNL got removed in Marcum/Lawrie trade
Not that I doubt you, but, baseballref doesn’t show that. I’m happy with that deal either way though.
Yep…I know it isn’t recorded in baseball-reference.com. But, I did hear it on the radio on the day of the Marcum trade.
baseball-reference.com doesn’t have anyone listed for PTBNL. So, it either got overlooked or addressed in another deal. If it was overlooked, hopefully there aren’t any Brewers fans reading this thread. 😉
fair offer. but like the other guy said, houston would have to eat some salary there
I can understand if the rays trade shields. The rays owe him a lot next year and they like to go cheap. However, if they do trade shields, then the reds have to add at least a reliever that has major league experience alongside alonso. that is just my opinion
they absolutely do. it’s not your opinion, it’s a fact. cordero is overpriced and his numbers last year are very deceiving. they’ll get AT LEAST one back of the pen reliever if not two before ST
Something involving Davis or Niemann for Alonso makes sense for the Rays and Reds.
If Jays trade Alverz for Alonso, that will be a foolish decision. Even in Votto’s trade , I will not give up Alverez. Knowing that Reds are trying to trade Alonso, Alex should now try to match up Cooper with teams that Reds are discussing so Jays can get more returns for Cooper than Reds get for Alonso.
hanrahan for alonso
Pedro Alvarez and Hanrahan for Alonso and a mid level prospect?
You people need to understand, Alonso’s value is not just in his potential, which I dont think anyone can argue, is very high. Sure, as some have pointed out, its a small sample size, but value is not only in what you get, or what you give up, but also in what the player costs you AFTER you have him. He is under team control for 3 more years and wont be arbitration eligible until AFTER next season, and thats only IF you play him every day, right away. So basically, any team that gets him, gets a great shot at a ML first baseman w allstar potential for minimal financial investment. Thats worth a lot… no? Reds just need a team with a top 3 starter that the team has a ready replacement for.
Gio Gonzalez is under team control for 4 more years, why is Alonso only 3?
Alonso is not eligible for free agency until 2018. You get six years of Alonso. He has practically no service time.
Who are you calling “you people??”
Hahaha…. touche’
I have a lot to argue here. His career minor league OPS is .837. Alonso is really overrated. I can and will argue that his potential is not very high. He can be a good player, but the team getting him does not have a “great shot at a ML first baseman w all-star potential.” Do you know how good other first basemen in baseball are? When is he beating out these other guys for all star spots? ALONSO= OVERRATED.
In the minored leagues, OBP is more important than OPS because SLG sometimes takes time to develop, not everyone is Mike Stanton and those who do have high SLG often do not have good plate discipline. Alonso is only overrated in that the Reds think he’s not worth Andrew Bailey.
Daric Barton, and Brett Wallace considering how the Jays gave up Wallace to get Gose I doubt they overvalue those kinds of bats. Especially since they have a Yonder Clone in Cooper
dude, pete, you gotta give it a rest. an injury prone reliever is not worth one of our best prospects that can give us 5-6 years of solid ~.800-.850 OPS. A small market team can only afford to trade that type of talent for talent and price unattainable on the open market. andrew bailey is not that guy.
An .837 OPS would make Alonso the A’s best player by a wide margin once Willingham leaves….
There is a huge difference between playing home games in Oakland and in Cincinnati.
For pitchers also. Gonzalez made 21 of his 32 starts in Oakland, Seattle or Anaeheim. Three big pitchers ballparks.
Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren did close to the same thing. I don’t feel it hurts the value of those pitchers.
Not sure what you dont understand about the words “shot” and “potential”. His value is exactly that a “great shot”. If you dont think he has a real shot to make an allstar team in his career, you dont know much about him. As far as “how good other 1B are” I guess you are referring to Gonzales, Howard, Fielder, Votto, and of course Albert (just off the top of my head). Well, Alonso is 24, my guess is that Votto and Fielder will be the only 2 still around (or playing at at really high level) when Yonder reaches his prime, and thats a big maybe w Fielder considering his weight issues. So I guess Ill concede that Alonsos chance of being selected to an AllStar team is pretty much nill in 2012. As others have noted though, he would be under team control for 6 more seasons. Which brings me back to my original point, his value is also in his contract status. But, if you don’t see how trading someone you have control of for say, 2 years, for someone you would control for 6 years affects trade value balance, well, that’s a whole other baseball economics discussion……
I think it should also be noted, that Alonso, a 1B almost exclusively, was drafted by Walt Jocketty right AFTER Votto finished 2nd in ROY voting (who is also a 1B exclusively). So either he didnt believe in Votto, or he really believes in Alonso. I would guess its a little more the latter. Jocketty misses from time to time just like everyone else, but he did draft the best 1B (and perhaps the best hitter) of all time. I think you can almost “bank” on the “potential” aspect of Alonso.
Shields is a bargain with 3 more years on his contract. He’s gonna make 8 mil next year and that goes up a couple mil a year the next two. He is the heart and soul of the whole team. Shields offsets the immaturity of Longoria and Upton and sets an awesome example for the stable of talented young starters the Rays have. As a Rays fan I would much rather trade Price whos next three years will cost more than Shields.
I agree, but who has the farm system to trade for Price?
I think Red’s beat writer estimated they will have about $8-12M available once the dust settles on their young arb guys. So I’d agree that swapping their best trade chip(s) for a closer is not wise when their stated priority is to get a top of the rotation starter. Of course if they can renegotiate Phillips salary down via a 3 year deal, that could free up some more from an anticipated $83-85M budget which could lead to the opportunity to just sign a free agent closer.
3 top prospects and two of your top pitchers for 1 decent prospect. Wow. So you want the Rays to trade you Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Alex Torres, Wilking Rodriguez and Brandon Guyer for Casey Kotchman ?
I am just saying, I can’t see Walt Jocketty giving him up without it being a huge deal. Krivsky would have had the deal done already and sent 5 of our top prospects for bag of balls but Jocketty is not like that. If it happens it will be a + for the Reds just as much as it is for the other team or teams involved.
I’d love to see the A’s trade with both the Yanks and Reds:
Yonder Alonso & Yasmani Grandal for Brandon McCarthy & Andrew Bailey
Brett Gardner & Jesus Montero for Gio Gonzalez & Kurt Suzuki
2B: Weeks
CF: Gardner
1B: Barton
DH: Montero
LF: Alonso
RF: Taylor
C: Grandal
3B: Sizemore
SS: Pennington
Alonso stinks in LF but Gardner has excellent range so it offsets it. A’s could sign the old fave Ramon Hernandez to hold down the fort if Grandal’s pace to the bigs is slowed down. If Barton is done then Montero or Alonso can move to 1B. The A’s should trade Chris Carter to a team that isn’t contending and can afford to give him 500 AB’s to see what he’s made of, Baltimore or Seattle are fits and I’m sure both teams have once highly regarded yet frustrating prospects in their farms who need a change of scenery too.
Why would you want Barton on the team let alone batting 3rd???
Because he’s very good and tried to play last year when he needed shoulder surgery and he never stopped getting on base anyway despite having lost significant bat speed (because he needed to have shoulder surgery). He’s also an amazing defender who made Pennington and Kouzmanoff look like Gold Glovers. Its all about whether or not he can rebound from the surgery though, which he’s no lock to do, that’s why you have Alonso and Montero right there.
I WOULD RATHER HAVE BRANDON ALLEN IN LF HE PLAYS GOOD D AND ALONSO AT 1B
haha barton will not be playing first next year but id forsure love to have montero. Thatd be a great trade if we traded gio to yanks for montero and another prospect possibly.
No range offsets Alonso in left, unless you have Gold Glovers in CF and Right and give up the right field line. Even then he still has to throw the balls he does get to into the infield. Im not saying he cant play left in a pinch, but if you are trading for him to make him your starting LFer…….. ugh.
Would about a Guthrie and Gregg For Alonso and Frazier deal, maybe with cash going somewhere too?
No suprise, the reds need pitching.
reds fans are funny like Marlin fans. First trading for Gio will cost you many players not just a 1b prospect. Second almost every team in baseball wants Gio since a young proven starter with team control is premium value. So why would the A’s take the first offer? Ante up and the best offer that trumphs all others will get him. This is no cost cutting dump but a team looking to stock pile prospects. Alonso would be only 1 piece of 4 more players. If it sounds to high don’t worry some other team will give Beane what he wants.
The A’s can also just hold onto Gio for another year and he’d still have 3 years of team control left. The Brewers traded Lawrie for 2 years of Marcum, so Gio is worth a lot more than that now, in a year and even in two years time.
Prospects are always risky, you can look at Brandon Wood but then you can look at Craig Kimbrel or any guy like him. I’m a Rays fan and I want Yonder. I really want Grandal also but then Shields enters the conversation so Reds fans, probably know the answer already but whats better?
Neimann/Davis for Alonso
Shields for Alonso, Grandal, Fransisco(time to put him at DH or even 1B and get this guy some real AB’s)
If the Reds make a trade with Alonzo they will have to get a top pitcher, I like Shields for Alonzo and Grandel.
The rays should trade shields before he regressed back to his 2010, and 09 numbers.
Shields posted xFIP’s of 3.85 in 2009, 3.55 in 2010, and 3.25 in 2011. It was more like he was unlucky in previous seasons and finally pitched up to his potential in 2011. On top of this he did it in the AL East facing the Yankees and Red Sox a bunch of times. Look at what happened to Garza and Edwin Jackson once they got out of the AL East. Shields is better than both, and the Rays know this. That’s why they traded Garza last year (and now have a top 20 OVERALL prospect in baseball in Hak Ju Lee) and held onto Shields.
With the market so thin for Shields the Rays will hold onto him for 1 more season to prove all the doubters wrong.
Jurrjens and a prospect for him?
Reds need one thing right now…a top of the rotation starter. Their regular line-up is set and moving Alonzo still leaves them with three fulltime OF’ers(Heisey, Stubbs and Bruce). They can always add a 4/5th OF’er who can play defense through FA if needed. And they could probably patch together a back end bullpen as well on the cheap(like the Rays did).
Shields may be their best move and giving up Alonso and Grandall seems fair. They would only be adding 6.5 million in payroll for 2012 w/Shields. If they wanted another piece(like maybe Brandon Gomes for the pen), they may have to add someone back the Rays could use…Neftali Soto,Ryan Lamarr or a strong young arm from the organization.
When we completley rebuilt our bullpen in 1 year (props Friedman) 2 big keys were the 2 prospects that stepped up and got later into games as the season went on, that was Gomes and McGee. Rays are loaded with starters but unless they want to waste their talent in the pen instead of trades either getting them in the rotation or another teams rotation, they are still a little weak in the pen. Gomes has to stay.
The more emotional option, Joey Votto to Toronto, is a now or later proposition. Votto is a Free Agent in 2014 and Toronto is his Hometown. Yonder Alonso is a Free Agent in 2018. Having him at 1B on a Team, Cincinnati, with a core of Cuban National players is the better option in my opinion. I believe Votto will leave anyway. In a small market town, Cincinnati, this Team will not generate enough cash to keep him out of Free Agency. Trade him now or lose him later. Yonder Alonso, I predict, will generate better statistics at the plate and 1B is his natural defensive position.
Makes a lot of sense, but, the best chance to win may be now with Votto, Phillips, and a healthy Arroyo at the back end of that rotation. If they can add a guy who can solidify the front of the rotation, and Votto, Phillips, Bruce play well, they have a shot. There are some good young guys on that team, but to date, Bruce and Cueto are the only ones to put up legitimate ML numbers. They have those guys now (PLUS Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Arroyo). To hamstring this club in favor of a (hopefully) better club in 2015 would be a shame.
Q: Would the Reds be better off trading Alonso?
Kevin Goldstein(ESPN writer for Baseball Prospectus):
Yes. I think he’s an over-rated prospect.
Q: How is Alonso overrated?
Kevin Goldstein: 1B only guy w/only avg bat at best for the position and debatable power ceiling.
Getting a top of the rotation starter with Alonso would require Tony Reagins
or Jim Hendry type GM. As we know already, AA, Freidman and Theo are tough
to negotiate. Plus, leverage is on their hands since they do not have to sell their
elite pitching and market goes crazy for quality pitching right now. Presumably,
it would take a moon to lure top of the rotation pitcher.
I would say Alonso, Grandal and two middle level prospects would be required
to lure either one of Garza, Shields and Gio.
Yep, it took the Cubs’ #1, #4, #10, and #11 prospects to get Garza. Will take at least as much (if not more) to get Shields.
It would take more. Garza came off a solid year, Shields came off an All Star year where he finished 3rd in Cy Young and he’s signed pretty cheaply through 2014.
I really think the Reds should ask Tampa for Matt Moore. Alonso only has 90 at bats. Moore only has a few starts although one was in the playoffs. Tampa gets the better deal because Moore only plays every fifth game.
Reds would do this in a second, Tampa not so much. Rays will move Price or Shields, Moore will be staying put.
ROFL. Moore is the #3 prospect in all of baseball. Alonso not even a top 100 prospect.
Oh and maybe the Rays should trade you Shields, Price, Moore, AND Hellickson because that only covers 4 out of every 5 games.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA…oh, you were serious?
I have no interest in any of the A’s pitchers- their stats are protected by their park.
A couple things:
1. Alonso’s minor league numbers were hurt by a broken hamate bone in mid 2009. It typically takes one year for the power to fully come back from this injury. So by 2011 he was fully healed and hit .303/.379/.498 in 446 AB’s across AAA and the MLB for an OPS of .877. That’s pretty damn good at any level.
2. He played his home games in AAA in a park that heavily favors pitchers. Many players in the Reds organization have seen power spikes when coming from AAA to the bigs. Stubbs and Votto just to name a couple. Its not all GABP. Its Louisville Slugger Field plays a role in the HR spike too.
So if you really examine the facts and are not just lazy and take the easy route, the signs point to Alonso’s power being underrated. He may not hit 40 HR a year, but 25 is certainly reasonable. And to the one guy who said he was not even a top 100 prospect, really? I mean really? He’s been in the top 100 the past 3 years. At least verify what you are saying so you don’t make a fool out of yourself. Last thing that drove me nuts on reading this thread. Not a single Reds fan here thinks Alonso alone is worth an ace. The article isn”t saying thats what the Reds will offer. Any fan with common sense knows Alonso will be a piece, the main piece, but not the only piece. But just because Alonso isn’t worth a 1 or 2 himself doesn’t mean he has no value either. The extremes that people have is frustratingly mind-boggling.
1. No scouters said Alonso is capable of 25 homers in big league.
See his scouting reports and Kevin Goldstein comments. He may
improve and reaches 25 homers one day but for a guy who never even
hit 15 homers in any given season predicting him hitting 25 homers
does not seem right. If he is like, say, 23 yrs old then I may agree
but this dude is fully developed in physical and already 25 yrs old.
2. Louisville Bats, AAA team for Reds. Their home park’s HR rate
was… 3rd (2009), 1st (2010), 2nd (2011) So your point that
Alonso played at park that heavily favors pitchers, very very wrong.
Alonso is of course a top 100 prospect. He was #73 pre-2011 and
I do not think his value has been diminished since he put up some
good numbers between AAA and short sample at big league.
He does have great value but it may require two other prospects at
his level to lure #1 or #2 starters.
1. He hit 17 HR across AAA and MLB last year so yeah…he has hit more than 15 in a season. See also my comment of the wrist injury that drained his power. And as for the scouts opinions. They seem split. Just because one person says he thinks he doesn’t have much power doesn’t mean they all do. There are still plenty who think he has 25 HR potential.
2. Their home park HR rate is not that high. The numbers you used were the TEAM HR rates. VERY BIG difference there. Before you call me out you might want to check and make sure you use the right statistics. If you find a way to find actual park HR rates for MiLB parks more power to you. But until then get your stats and facts straight. What I do know is multiple Reds have seen power spikes once getting to the Majors. Stubbs, Votto, Heisey, and even Alonso saw at least small power increases over the minor league numbers. So yes I do expect an increase of Alonso’s power numbers from his minor league numbers. So my point is not very, very wrong. Your point is very, very wrong.
I really dont think the Reds are looking for a #1, even if they found someone to trade them a #1 for Alonso, they cannot add the payroll. They feel pretty good about Johnny Cueto maturing enough to be their #1. He has the long term contract to prove it. A #2 would be nice if a younger, salary controlled guy, but thats high cotton. Teams dont trade salary controlled 2s. I really think they would take a solid 3, reliable, innings eater that has a good ground ball ratio. Someone not making a lot of money and with min 2yr control. They could slot that player in the 2 for them and revisit the rotation later in the year as guys like Leake and Chapman develop. I guess what Im saying is, the slot they want to fill is the 2, but dont necessarily need a guy pitching in the 2 now.
Just to add, the ground ball ratio is key, that, and not walking people. The Reds are good defensively so balls in play are fine, so long as they are kept in Great American Small Park. Reds gave away about a half dozen games last year on BB followed up by HR.
joel hanrahan and grab bag an arm for alonso. not going to happen in the division, but the pirates need a 1b and i’d say no one is untouchable short of mccutch. so what if he’s 24? thats potentially 10 more years (potentially). i’ll take him over $8.5 for lee.
you want a closer under control. done. you want a good young arm, grab morton or karstens. dont tell me that they’re not 2’s, you have bronson arroyo and his guitar slotted there.
see chart
alonso’s value to the reds——-> here
red’s fan’s thoughts———>here
his real value——->here
oakland fan’s thoughts——>here
alonso’s value to the rest of the league——. here
I think the Rays should shop Hellickson. He came up at the first of the year which started his arbitration clock a year early. He is destined to be a super2. His agent is Scott Boras. I think we should sell while his stock is high. A year of scouting him creates an advantage for the hitters. He has a great mound pressence and a very good change-up. I am not sure he will be able to make the necessary adjustments to have another steller year. I’m not sure we have a catcher that has a good consistent game plan or one that can control the running game. Both play on a young pitcher’s mind. Boras has a silver tongue and should be avoided like a plague IMHO.
I understand now that the Chicago White Sox are interested in Yonder. Will take P Jake Peavey. We may have to add someone else with Yonder, but this would make since for both teams.