Last year wasn't supposed to be Jose Bautista's contract year. At the beginning of the 2010 campaign, Bautista was a utility player who had never hit more than 16 homers in any major league season and was still two years away from free agency. But his 54 home run outburst has officially earned him a five-year extension. The Blue Jays announced that they have avoided tomorrow's scheduled arbitration hearing and agreed to a $64MM extension with Bautista.
Bautista will earn $8MM in 2011 and $14MM per season from 2012-15, according to the team. The Blue Jays hold a $14MM option for 2016.
As our Arbitration Tracker shows, Bautista filed for $10.5MM and the team countered with a $7.6MM submission. The five-year deal, which resembles Dan Uggla's extension, buys out Bautista's fourth and final season of arbitration and his first four seasons of free agency.
Bautista posted a .260/.378/.617 line for the Blue Jays last year. He reached base like a leadoff hitter (.378 OBP) but his surprising power (.617 slugging percentage) pushed him to the heart of the Blue Jays' order before long. A versatile defender who spent most of last season in right field, Bautista is slated to start the coming season as Toronto's starting third baseman. For more on his unusual arbitration case click here.
Hunter Pence, who has a hearing scheduled tomorrow, is the lone unsigned arbitration eligible player remaining.
Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes first reported that the sides were close to an agreement and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the deal was done.
Two years too many. But these are things you have to do if you’re the Jays, Rays, O’s etc.
I fail to see the relevant property that is connecting the set you mentioned. Surely you don’t mean limited financial resources because that is obviously just false.
rays, jays, and O’s are not favourable among free agents
Plus defender at 3rd and RF. Even played some 1B. Versatility matter Dominican leader in clubhouse, Escobar, Hecchvaria, Encarnacion and other Latin players on their way up. Cannot be a bad thing to have a character guy who led the majors in HR mentoring young up and comers. 10 HR in Sept 09, continued it into 10-11. Not a bad signing at all.
he is not a plus defender. please understand that
why don’t you think he’s a plus defender?
UZR and Totalzone and DRS all agree that he is well below average
I’ve seen multiple posts talking about his above average defense.. Most people who split time at multiple positions, are usually moving to shield their defense.
even with my eyes i can tell that he’s not good defensively. In the outfield he doesn’t take good routes and isn’t quick on his feet. His catching is also a bit meh. At 3B his range is also weak. people overrate his defence because of the arm.
His range at 3B is fine; he just has a tendency to ole (and miss) on hard balls hit straight at him instead of staying in front of them. Not the best quality to have at the “hot corner”.
I agree completely about his right field defense, though. Altogether, he’s probably a -5 right fielder or so.
most metrics say his 3B is below average as well. Many pirates fans who’ve regularly seen him man 3B will agree
I don’t disagree that he’s a below average third baseman. I’m saying he’s below average because he’s not good at balls hit straight at him, not because of a lack of lateral range. That’s just based on my own personal observation though.
Bautista has a rifle for an arm, and his defense is considered a strength…….I think the signing is idiotic, but his defense has never been questioned
you might want to do some research around fangraphs. His defensive capabilities, other than his strong arm, are all below average.
They will regret this decision within two seasons.
Or they might not.
If they do, I’ve got 3 words for you: Los. Angeles. Angels.
Of Anaheim….
regret it within 2 seasons? try the first half of the 1st season
Ikr
I guess compared to Jason Werth’s contract this contract is not that bad.
yes, compared to jason werth’s completely disastrous deal, this is only potentially disastrous
By comparison to Zito, AJ Burnett’s deal isn’t so bad either by your logic.
No, that one is still bad.
Of course it is. Point being that “bad” is “bad” regardless of who is the worst. Just because the Nats/Werth deal was bad it doesn’t justify the next “bad” deal. Not saying that Bautista is one at this point.
I guess the “by your logic” part was skipped over , huh?
we should’ve kept Wells!!!!oneoneone
Hopefully Bautista turns in good seasons in 2011/12. AA could use that as trade bait.
What is with Jays fans NON-STOP talk about trading away players once they get good? Are you a Leafs fan or something? Enough!
Probably because he was virtually unheard of prior to last season. It seems a little naive to expect Bautista to be the real deal. Brady Anderson hit 50, then hit 18. Louis Gonzalez hit 57, then hit 28. Adrian Beltre hit 48, then hit 19. Do you see where I’m going with this? Especially since he hasn’t hit more than 16 prior to the 2010 season. I hope I’m wrong though, renegade, and I hope the Bautista we saw in 2010 is the same Bautista we signed.
Amen
you mean you don’t want to trade away a player past his peak and is about to be on the decline for blue chip prospects?
This guy is a career .240 BA hitter and that is putting it nicely. He had a pretty nice season, I agree. But it’s very unlikely he’ll even do it again. It’s like Blue Jays are just investing in his raw power. This guy will not be the same caliber player next season when pitchers adjust to him; a .240 career hitter does not make key readjustments.
Adjustments have been made, circumstances have changed. Part of the Bautista enigma is that I’m not sure you can legitimately compare the rest of his career to what he did in 2010 and the tailend of 2009. I think it’s only at the end of 2011 that we’ll have an accurate gauge of the guy.
that made no sense…. for starters who cares about batting average when he has that OPS, and what do you mean a 240 hitter does not make key readjustments what does his batting average have anything to do with if he readjusts lol…. even if he regresses 20 homeruns he will still be a middle of the lineup hitter, he is great in the clubhouse apparently and the jays need a new face of the franchise i dont mind the deal… would of preferred less years
Batting average is useless. Try again.
Useless? Do you even watch baseball? Batting average determines how much you get a hit. The higher determines how much of plate discipline a player has or adjustments that player makes. Without his homers, he would just be an expensive utility player.
Yes useless. Plate discipline is more accurately described by OBP and his OBP is routinely 100 points higher than his BA.
You sound really smart. I think you should continue to ignore OBP, defensive versitility, outfield assists, and so on. A .260 batting average trumps all these stats.
Outfield assists are sort of moot since he’s playing 3rd.
No. He’s that good.
one of those things does not belong
And without Roy Halladay’s ability to dominate hitters, he’d be Jon Garland.
Oh god, dude. You just shot holes in your own boat.
AVG still matters. it does determine the type of HITTER you are. OBP counts walks which are nice, but all a walk does it get you on 1st base and does nothing else with any runners on base. I’d rather have someone who is a good HITTER.
With Bautista’s walk rates, no one really cares about his BA. A regression in power is understandably expected, but an OPS of .850 seems reasonible for 2011. That justifies more than $13mil to me.
Thank you. Finally an intelligent comment on this thread.
I think that’s the problem: we really can’t say for sure what his OPS will be. The guy came out of nowhere; before 2010, he was hitting near a .750 OPS. So do we just average that out? That career average would be a .794 OPS. He also isn’t a very good fielder (especially at 3rd) so it’s not like he can make up for the risk with defense.
It’s an interesting move; although, I would like to have seen him do it again for at least another year before giving him a multi-year contract.
I’d rather look at the median of his career OPS and 2010 as a guesstimate for what to expect.
.794 [.895] .995
Still seems high to me, but I can’t expect his OPS to drop 200 points. That’s almost unheard of.
Except that median includes the .995 in the average (so you’re counting it twice)
A 200 OPS drop is not unheard of: Ben Zobrist and Ryan Ludwick come to mind. These guys were also one hit wonders. Although the power surge from Bautista is quite rare.
He had 1 more arbitration year so it’s not like there wasn’t another option.
The only way the Blue Jay lose is if he posts another great year (better than 2010) so he would ask for a lot more. Even then, do they actually lose? A) they could rest easily about Bautista’s improvement and B) he would be a much more tempting trade candidate if they chose to trade him.
Now, if he posts a more mediocre season like many suggest he will (or maybe a good but not great season) then he would probably cost less. Again, the Blue Jays would have a bigger sample size to evaluate his true talent.
Right now, they’re basing most of the deal on his career year which is usually unwise.
I don’t know what market you’re looking at, but to my mind, if Bautista has a season in 2011 something like 30-35HR, 850+ OPS, he’d be looking at a lot more than 5@65M. This deal allows the Jays to hold onto a good player, without turning into an albatross if the player busts. The FA deal he would’ve got with another good season would’ve been way more risky for the team, and I doubt they would’ve signed him.
I think you’re using this year’s market and projecting it for next year.
There are a lot more interesting names that are FA’s compared to this year. This year we had Crawford, Werth and… the rest.
Next year, we have (according to Cot’s contracts) OF’s: Beltran, Cameron, Cuddyer, DeJesus, Drew, Guillen, Kubel, Ludwick, Pierre, and Willingham (Not to mention top hitters that aren’t OFers like Pujols and Fielder)
Obviously, some of these guys will be resigned and each has his own weaknesses; however, I don’t think the market will be as barren as last this year’s.
Bautista isn’t going to provide defensive value so he needs to average 850 OPS+ to make the deal worth it.
If he is a bust, then those 5 years isn’t an “albatross” like Wells but it isn’t anything to sneeze at either. Again, only the very best players post good WAR numbers year after year. There are many more players who are one hit wonders or players like Huff that do great one year and just flunk the next year.
The guy wasn’t even a regular before 2010 and now, some fans have him at 850+ OPS? I just don’t know. I’ve seen a lot more flukes than bench players “who just find it one day”… It’s not impossible but I would have liked to see more proof. (at least two seasons)
Yes, he could post the same or better numbers, but he could also very well drop back to his 750 OPS. That’s the problem here — figuring out whether it is more fluke than talent.
He didn’t have another arb year left – he’d be a free agent after the 2011 season, which is why the Jays couldn’t just wait to see how he did this season. Assuming he does anything close to 2010, once he hits the open market he should have been able to make a lot more money.
I meant the 2011 season. The Jays do have a period to resign the guy before free agency. If he gets off to a blazing start, he would’ve been a good trade candidate. (and, probably not as attractive with this 5 year deal since a trade team needs to commit so many years)
The OF market for 2012 isn’t that small compared to this year’s. Which is more likely, him posting a 900+ OPS or him going back to about 750 OPS?
I think he needs to average at least 850+ OPS to make this deal worthwhile since he isn’t a very good defender.
I don’t know, I think waiting another year would’ve been better. (Although, this isn’t a terrible risk and AA deserves the benefit of the doubt after getting rid of Wells)
How can you not? His career average is 200 points less…
A dropoff in OPS of .200 points is just as unlikely as an increase. The latter actually happened, and considering the rarity of it, I find it unlikely for it to fluctuate down hill as violently.
the problem is that a .850 OPS is not reasonable. we have no clue what kind of hitter he will be
There are plenty of clues. They’ve all been on display since the beginning of September 2009.
and his inability to hit has been on display since his debut until september of 2009
Which is also a clue. The problem is to evaluate the clues. It is not the case that we have no clue.
well my use of the word “clue” was more in term of how we can’t predict the level he’ll perform at
Thats a joke. Do you think pitchers and opposing teams went all of 2010 not making adjustments? Look at the monthly breakdown. He had a huge preseason and the pitchers made adjustements and he started off slow. Then he adjusted and had a huge May and June. Then a slow July and a huge August and September. The only difference this year is the fast that he may be pitched around a little more often. He is a beast end of story and barring injury, will still be a 35hr/100rbi/.260/.360 guy this year. Throw in 100+ walks and like I said, you have a beast with a cannon for an arm in the outfield or above average defence at 3rd base.
Well worth the contract.
It’s time to find out.
Lots of money for a guy with one good season under his belt. Hopefully the Angels will find this deal “tolerable” in two years.
AA will likely back load most of the contract into the 5th year. That way, in 4 years when the Wells contract is up, we can pass along Bautista.
Ha.
this is the deal
2011: 0 M
2012: 0 M
2013: 0 M
2014: 0 M
* traded to LAA for Mike Trout
2015: 65 M
It never gets old, does it?
They had to do it. If they settle on arbitration and he puts up even 30hrs then they are competing against other teams and probably giving him more money and maybe more years ala Werth. I think it is a good contract for now but we will see in 3 years.
I hope the Blue Jays and Orioles do better than the Yankees
I hope for world peace as well. None are happening.
that really shouldn’t be a joke
Based on this comment I believe we can expect world peace within 4 years.
good luck, hope it works out.
It was either sign him now or risk Bautista having another huge year and let him get competing offers from other teams.
$65 million doesn’t hurt. We saved 86% million from Well’s contract, so apply those savings here and overall we’re still in the plus.
I agree it’s too much money, but if the huge jump in production is a result of better plate discipline (he had 50 more walks then his typical season) it’s not preposterous to think he’ll be a consistent .850 ops guy with 30-35 hrs. The Jays needed to spend some of the money they freed up to justify shedding it in the first place.
So it’s 5yr/60 instead of 65?
Could be a great, fair or a terrible deal for the Jays.
I like and trust Bautista swing and he played well in September 09 so I can’t help but think he can continue hitting 30+ bombs.
If he can put up 30 per yr, and 100 rbis with a 270-290 avg itll be worth it. He dont have to hit 54 to make him worth 10 million- 12 million. That puts him worth 20-25 million
270-290? he had .260 in 2010 and that was a career high. he’s more likely to be .250ish hitter. that’s not bad if your Adam Dunn putting up significant HR, but when your not even getting 30 it hurts and not worth the money Bautista is set to get.
walks tho.
Heres an idea… stop assuming and watch the season pan out… its tough i know, but this contract could be great , and if it isnt itwont hurt the jays that much anyways, do you think they needed to get rid of wells? NO , they did because halo’s were desperate, money isnt an issue with the Jays, this is peanuts for them even if he only performs half as good as last season.
@PlayLikeReed
Ummmm.. outfield assists? Really?
-disqus really doesn’t like me making replies..
hey, its not the most sexy stat, but his argument was “Without his homers, he would just be an expensive utility player”. Im just pointing out some the areas where Bautista was at or near the top of the league.
OF assists can sometime be misleading. But watching him play last year showed he was a great outfielder with a cannon of an arm. As John Farrell put it, the BoSox viewed him as a “premier right fielder” last year. Farrell also said that they as a pitching staff made a lot of adjustments to Bautista last year, and he kept hitting them over the fence.
This is a stupid deal. I mean he will not live up to the season he had last year. That was his best year, now it’s ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE
He’s not getting paid as if he was going to repeat last year.
No kidding, some dumb comments here..do people realize what 54 HR, strong obp, and plus defense are ACTUALLY worth?? If he was paid to replicate 2010 he would of commanded 7/150
If they thought he was going to repeat what he did last year they would have been paying him Pujols-type dollars.
coolstorybro?
sorry, ouch!
5 years!? dude is 30 now and coming off an incredible career season.
F’n ridiculous! that money could have been much better used at someone who was more reliable.
I have loved the moves AA has made while GM, but this one is questionable.
what happens when hes hitting .250 (or under) with 20-25 HR? ..and this is at age 30. what happens when he is declining more?
$60 MIL for 5 years is roughly $12 MIL a season. what?! the Jays offered him $7.6 MIL in arbitration and Bautista requested $10.5 MIL ..so the Jays instead of giving him the $10+ he wanted, they go HIGHER? I feel like I’m hearing Will Ferrell sitting on the couch in the movie Step Brothers.. WHAT!?
if the Jays really wanted to give hi a long term contract, they could have had him cheaper and for less years.
after Bautista signed this and calmly left the room and got alone, he was jumping up and down like a kid.
I hope the Jays don’t regret this TOO MUCH.
I’d hazard a guess that this contract only pays him in the neighborhood of that $10MM mark this season and backloads the contract, just like most longterm contracts do. Assuming 5/65 is right, 9MM, 11MM, 14MM, 15MM, 16MM or something like that.
I hope its front loaded, considering the jays have so much room in there budget it wont aftect them this year and will only make things easier in the longterm, ive never understood why gm’s dont front load contracts sometimes.
because it’s better to pay someone later than it is now? paying 13MM per is paying more than paying 9 MM now and 17MM in the last year of the contract.
Thanks for the math lesson… My point was , for the Jays it would make sense to front load it considering they dont need the budget room that badly this year. Over time it will allow for alot more room as the contract goes on , and if he needs to be traded , the less he’s making the better.
Why should they overspend this year then? If they’re not going to produce a winning product then there’s no reason to increase spending. They obviously plan on contending within the next 4 years, and with Bautista in the heart of the order, so that’s where the money goes. Spending money just because you have it is an awful business model, and this team is just that: a business.
edit- The way it’s written, maybe my other post didn’t get my point across clearly. 9M 11M 14M 15M 16M is the same monetary value as 13*5, but by putting the big numbers later in the contract, the jays are allowing themselves that flexibility in the next 2-3 seasons, since 16M today != 16M 4 years from now.
It would make sense to front load it considering they dont need the budget room that badly this year. Over time it will allow for alot more room as the contract goes on , and if he needs to be traded , the less he’s making the better. I repeated it because i dont think you read it properly… or read it at all. but it doesnt matter considering the deal is already annouced at 8-14-14-14-14.
I read it, it’s just wrong. It doesn’t make sense to spend more money now, when they don’t need it. The more they spend this year, when they are not contending, the smaller their profit is. A penny saved is a penny earned, or some other cliche that fits here.
And how would you have spent this money specifically?
PUJOLS
“the Jays offered him $7.6 MIL in arbitration and Bautista requested $10.5 MIL ..so the Jays instead of giving him the $10+ he wanted, they go HIGHER?”
You’re comparing apples and oranges. The two numbers exchanges were for a 1 year deal (in arbitration). The Jays are buying out 4 free agent years. If he was a FA coming off that year, how much would he have gotten paid?
“if the Jays really wanted to give hi a long term contract, they could have had him cheaper and for less years”
How’s that? Maybe by signing him long term back in 2010, but who’s to say that was even possible. Today, how could they have had him cheaper and for less years? If they’d only offered 2 yr / 16 mil, why would he accept?
Ouch…should have waited…
The chances are that another good season would see him walk. And even if the Jays tied him down, it would be at a huge price that would still make people itchy.
This contract is a straightforward, aggressive gamble. I like it.
Waited until when? He’s a FA? The Jays had a window between now and the end of the season to negotiate exclusively with him. There’s clearly some risk – if he regresses a ton during the 2011 season, he probably wouldn’t get this kind of contract (though who knows what a desperate team would pay him based on his 2010 and based on the relatively weak class of OF free agents), but if he plays well in 2011, there’d be little chance for the Jays to get him at this price.
OF assists can sometime be misleading. But watching him play last year showed he was a great outfielder with a cannon of an arm. As John Farrell put it, the BoSox viewed him as a “premier right fielder” last year. Farrell also said that they as a pitching staff made a lot of adjustments to Bautista last year, and he kept hitting them over the fence.
damned if you do damned if you dont situation. If he hit the way he did for the last season and half again this year, he would have gotten way more on the open market. If he reverts back to 2008 levels, then you ask if the season was a fluke, or who he really is…
Either way this is the deal that will define AA as a GM, becuase ultimately, he made the call, and he believes Bautista is the real deal.
He’s gonna look like a genius or a fool.
Agreed, though from looking at most things AA has done, I wouldn’t bet against any of his decisions.
I guess at 5pm we’ll hear AA’s justification for the deal, as well as some of the details that we don’t necessarily have as yet. Is it 60 or 65M? Are there options and are they the club’s, the player’s, or mutual, and for how many years? Is there a no-trade clause, and how extensive is it? What are the details about this “charitable work” component? Etc.
Bautista seems to me a very confident, determined and dedicated player. There is risk in any deal (the player could suffer a catastrophic injury), but I wouldn’t bet against Bautista making this signing look like a steal for the Jays over the next few years.
Typically with all of the Jays big signings there is at least a donation to the Jays care foundation, it is part of their dedication to the city of Toronto, it has been standard in the Wells, Hill, Romero, Halladay signings over the last couple of years. I know Romero had a $100,000 donation as part of his latest contract. I would imagine at least 100,000 or more being written into this contract as well.
I’m actually thinking more. Especially with him starting a charity of his own.
Most deals are insured against major injury to the player. So even if he has a catastrophic injury it is not like it is going to handcuff the payroll flexibility. Just their facial hair dominance.
As an aside, even if there was no insurance, I really don’t think eating 12+million a deal would be the end of the world for the Rogers Corp.
Hi Jon.
I’d just like you to know, that you’re absolutely killing it in this thread. You should feel good about yourself. If you don’t mind, please continue this streak of awesome posts, which, at my count, is at 80 bajillion consecutive B+ grade or higher.
I’d also like to congratulate you on not being completely braindead, much like the high majority of posters in both Bautista threads over the last couple days.
-Grady
You need good players to compete with Boston and NYY. Jose qualifies as someone who is “good enough” to play for a division winner.
How many 30-35 homer guys have 54 HR ceilings? How many prospects in the Jays system have this ceiling? In ANY system?
Jose does. He’s proven it too.
Agreed, eventually you gotta keep the pieces that you believe will be apart of the team that gets there. Potential 30+ HR with a good arm RF/3B heck maybe he’s a legit 50+ then the Jays have one serious player on their hands. I have a feeling Bautista is gonna be definitely with the contract and then some. It’s already a pretty fair price.
Though admittedly like most Jays fans I was hoping for a 3/30-40 MIL but I still like this one too
What would the Jays do for a 3B or RF next year if they chose not to extend Bautista and he goes and does something like 370obp/540slg/910ops in 2011? They would either have to 1) sign him to way more years at way more money or 2) Let him walk for picks and fill the hole with JUNK. There is no one on the possible 2012 free agent list for a RF that is worth anything even close to Bautista. How does filling RF or 3B (I’m thinking Lawrie starts 2012 at 3B) with crap, help the Jays compete when their young players are entering their primes???
I would have let this guy walk.
What a stupid, stupid signing.
It’s not like he’s getting a $250m deal here. And there’s nothing stupid about giving a guy a healthy contract after a barnstorming season.
I mean, how bad do you think he will be not to earn his $12m salary?
if he got 250 M it would be beyond catastrophic.
It isn’t stupid because we paid him lotsa cash after one barnstorming season, but because he was crap for 5 years previously
I’m sure he could earn 12 M/year easy. But 5 years? really?
But this is the same argument that has been persisting since September 2009!
When he mashed in ’09, it was because he was hitting against AAA players. When he mashed in ST in ’10, it was because the pitchers were experimenting. And every month in the 2010 season there was talk about the imminent regression.
I’m not saying that he couldn’t flop in 2011 and beyond, but continually going back to his past just isn’t helpful. It tells us absolutely nothing…I mean, if we went purely on past stats, nobody would have said he’d put up the numbers he has over the past 18 months. We have to see what he does in 2011 to make an accurate assessment, but if the Jays believe in him and want to hold onto him for a decent price, now was absolutely the time to make that commitment.
As for the five years, we need to hear the devil in the details first. But even if it is a full five years, Bautista has an athletic body that should age better than most. 35 isn’t quite an ancient age – I’d be far more concerned if he was going into his late 30s.
bautista relies on reflexes and bat speed rather than true power. I don’t think those last long in to the 30’s
I like how so much of your negativity relies upon your skills as a talent evaluator.
negativity = realism donchaknow
What is “true power” comprised of if not bat speed? What other means is there to apply force to the baseball? Just wondering . . .
Most power hitters stay capable until their age 36-37 season.
is this based on data over the last what 10-15 years, during the so called steroid era?
I’m not sure how that’s relevant. Testing is rigorous now and if you don’t believe that it probably won’t be a lot better in 5 years. His power numbers likely won’t decline based on bat speed. His body will begin to break down on the field however, especially playing on turf.
There’s no shortage of 35+ yr old power bats in the MLB to support my point.
I don’t really have anything to go by. I have just heard people connected with baseball in the past say that before the steroid era players mid 30’s were not continuing to put up major power numbers. if steroids were a major effect that allowed players in their mid 30’s to still put up significant powers numbers and there is now strict testing, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see those numbers not be the same as they ahve been through recent years.
You could end up being right. I guess my stance is I’m confident that his power drop off, if it happens due to age, will be in the final year of the contract. In general it’s really hard to compare 15 years ago to today for training, nutrition, coaching etc. That has more of an impact on bat speed, as a whole, than the odd instance of HGH use. That of course is my personal feeling, not fact.
All that aside, I don’t think he’ll eclipse 40 homers again in his career. I’d love to be wrong, I just don’t see it. Short of injury though, I don’t see him hitting less than 20.
Inflation adjusted his salary, like it or not, is right where it should be. I’m ok with the signing because I trust AA but I would have preferred trading him last year than deal with these types of signings.
Why are you so negative? Why dont you wait to judge the contract in a year or 2, before saying its a horrible signing? What if he’s a 30+ hr hitter and he keeps the rest of his other stats close to how he hit last season for 4 of those 5 years? Is it still a horrible deal?
what do you mean by a 30 HR hitter? .800 OPS? .850? .900? theres a huge gap between those levels
What if he’s a 30+ hr hitter AND HE KEEPS THE REST OF HIS OTHER STATS(YES THAT INCLUDES OPS) CLOSE TO HOW HE HIT LAST SEASON for 4 of those 5 years?
well technically it’s impossible to maintain that OPS while losing 20 home runs
Gee i missed where i said maintain, do point it out for me… and technically its not impossible, what if he had more hits and walks and less homeruns?, his obp increases while his slg% decreases, i have to teach you many many things young grasshoppa.
you said all his other stats remain the same (YES INCLUDING OPS)
anyways, if his HRs are to drop from 50+ to 30+ (roughly 20 hrs difference), his SLG would decrease by at least .050. you think he’s gonna have an OBP of .400+?
no, no i didnt , i said they stay close, as in not far away from… my god your dense.
its a good thing you’ve got the edit button huh
…and you would forever be known as the worst GM in history when Bautista keeps up his pace.
much worse have happened. He’s not Albert Pujols for god’s sake
Bautista is going to hit 50 again this year? Don’t think so.
From a radically different, and entirely naive perspective, there’s this: Guy hit 54 HR last season after five below average seasons in the majors. For that he gets $65 million to play another five seasons. Fairy tale story.
Boring. Way to come up with an original idea.
Fairy tales can come true, It could happen to you, If you’re . . .
But you’re not, are you?
How is this radiacally different or entirely naive?
i’d rather invest a guy like jose bautista, than a guy like miguel cabrera.
ha, good one
Umm fail?
AA makes his first mistake as Jays GM. Why take the money you save on Wells and put towards a fairly unproven commodity? I don’t believe Bautista will earn this contract in the end. It’s a giant risk, and overall for a player like Bautista I don’t feel it’s worth the risk. I know he costs a bit more, but for the money I would’ve much rather of had Beltre, who can play a great 3B (a need for the Jays) and can do more things overall than Bautista. That’s just an example though…I just hate this deal for the Jays, and I don’t know why they did it. They must REALLY believe that Baustista is legit, which I don’t think he is.
its not really a mistake, its just much too player-friendly. If that was calculated, then i can’t call this a mistake. But its not a good deal either
It’s a mistake to guarantee 65mil to a player that has exactly one good Major league season, and is 30 years old. I just hate the risk, nobody REALLY knows what Bautista is. He could go back to hitting 20HR’s over the next 3 years for all we know, it’s a crapshoot that I don’t like at all. At least if you let him play half the season and he’s showing that he can do the same type of things you can begin to negotioate with him, and if he asks for more then that’s fine because you have a much better idea of what Bautista really is.
i agree, but even if he falls back to pre-2010, his market value isn’t too far off from the guaranteed money. That still doesn’t make this a good deal at all though.
We don’t know that it’s a mistake. I think Dave Cameron crunched the numbers and figured that it was a fair value deal, and that’s factoring in a significant amount of decline. So yeah, it could be a mistake, or it could be very profitable…but what we should see it as is an aggressive gamble, and I think that reflects well on AA. Too many timid GMs out there.
If you read Dave Camerons article, he said he would not have done the deal. Read the entire article, I totally agree with his assement. There’s is too much risk involved, and they could have had him under team control for a year at around 9mil per season. He also says that the Jays are essentially paying him the same type of money that V-mart, Dunn and Konerko got in the off-season, all well more established players than Bautista. I hate this deal as a Jays fan.
I did read Cameron’s article in full. But unlike you, he didn’t *hate* the deal. The best that could be said is that he was ambiguous about it and would have erred on the side of caution. However, that wholly overlooks the possibility that Bautista would sign with another team.
This is just about locking up the franchise face for a few years. It’s really not a hate-worthy contract; it’s not nearly approaching a back-breaking, future-compromising 9-figure deal.
How is an annual salary of 12 million a giant risk?
Furthermore, I am sure that a horde of better talent assessors than you gave AA their opinions regarding what they viewed Bautista’s future as. Even if he regresses to 30 HRs, 350+/-OBP, .850OBP, he is still probably worth the 12 million, particularly given his defensive versatility and leadership/popularity in the club house.
Maybe he ends up only being worth 50 million over five years. Even then, that’s not such a big risk given that he could prove to be worth much much more.
Or he regressed back to a 15HR hitter and this deal is terrible. That’s the thing about Bautista, nobody really knows.
let me point you to the part where jon said that better talent evaluators than you gave AA their opinions regarding Bautista’s future. It’s the first line of the second paragraph in the post above the one I quoted.
better talent evaluators also told Ricciardi to lock up wells and rios
sigh…
*unshun*
Ricciardi should have put more money in to scouts then.
Hint- the wells deal was fine when it was signed, and the Rios deal was, and is currently, also fine.
*reshun*
no the wells deal wasn’t fine when it was signed. neither was the rios deal. Both were very player-friendly. So is this deal.
you just cant admit when your wrong can you lol its hilarious actually.
This is the last time I’ll bite. Show your work please.
well lets see, the Jays finished 2nd in the AL East in 2006. They were IN CONTENTION.
They had good enough pitching to build on, so they sign soon-to-be-FA Vernon, who’s had four good seasons in a row and a 5.7 WAR year in 2006, to a ridiculously expensive, but needed for contention, contract.
2007 turned out to be dissapointing, but since it was mostly due to injuries, the Jays thought that 2008 could still be a contending year.
Alex Rios, coming off of 2 good years and a 4.7 WAR season in 2007, is also signed to an expensive long term deal to complement Wells in the lineup.
and we all know what happened after that
The Jays were in CONTENTION. They were willing to take risks on busting on their long term deals if it meant playoffs or world series. Financially, its not a good tactic, but it made sense.
Now for Bautista.
The Jays are coming off of an 85 win season, but many players had career years and the pitching was surprisingly healthy.
The Jays let go of Downs, trade away Marcum, plan to give away Wells for nothing but actually get something back, and do not sign big free agents or trade for top players. It seems like the Jays are going to let their young team develop and grow the farm.
Then they sign 30 year old Bautista to a 5 year extension.
why? The Jays seem to be playing for at least 2 years to the future. Why sign a veteran a for top dollars to a long term deal? Also, why guarantee so many years for a player coming off of one great season?
This deal could be a steal or a bust. But what do the Jays gain from Bautista playing well? If Wells and Rios played extremely well even for the first few years, they could have helped the Jays get to the playoffs. Realistically, Bautista will probably play at above average level for 2-3 years, then be average or below average, so he should play well for the first few years of the contract. How does this benefit the team? It doesn’t. The Jays won’t be competing when Bautista plays well, and by the time the Jays are competing, he probably won’t be as productive a player. Unless Bautista is traded to get better MLB players or prospects, Bautista’s signing is only useful in making the fans happy. Happy fans =/= playoffs = final goal.
but you probably won’t read this and just call it trolling.
you’re overthinking it. Either they’re worth the WAR or they’re not. The whole point of signing a contract for the longterm is whether or not you think they’re going to be worth the value that you assign to them in the contract. If Bautista gives them 16 WAR this season and is then 0 WAR for the rest of the contract, they still got their money’s worth, regardless of age or how badly they need him. They obviously signed him to 5 years because they thought that they can gets 12.5WAR out of him. If they do, they got their money’s worth. If they don’t, they didn’t get their money’s worth. (they’re also probably contending next season fwiw).
The Wells deal came, as you said, after 4 good seasons. 4 good seasons is grounds for an extension. I’m glad we can (kind of) agree on this. The thing with Vernon is that, similar to Bautista, nobody could have predicted the direction his career was going. Vernon became worse than old-Jose, and Jose became better than new-Vernon.
Vernon, being a top 5 prospect for his final 2 minor league years, was expected to be a monster. When he became a monster for those 4 seasons, he was age 28, entering his prime. A +5 win player entering his prime should be paid the big bucks. Without knowledge of the future, any GM who could afford it would have paid out that extension to keep him in town. Results don’t really matter in this case, since there was no possible way of knowing, at the time, that he would become a bust instead of getting better. At 32, he’s supposed to still be really good.
Rios is… well… just worth the contract. In terms of $/WAR, having put up 9.5WAR in his 26-27-28 seasons, with +defense, +arm and +speed, this one’s a no-brainer. 2009 was an outlier. Similar to VW, he was a 6th ranked prospect and there was no reason to believe that he was going to start sucking, not to mention become hated by the TOR fans.
No matter TOR’s opinion of him, he’s put up 9.5 WAR over that contract and is a legit 3-4 win player at age 30, which matches his projection all along.
Having a 5 win guy and a 4 win guy locked up longterm looks like trying to contend to me.
One last, final, spectacular shun forever. Nice knowing you. Enjoy being wrong for the rest of your life.
no, no, no. A deal is not solely based on how much the player produces.
signing a top free agent at a rebuilding phase is stupid.
signing a stop gap in the middle of contention is stupid.
signing wells/rios in the middle of contention makes sense (didn’t say its a good deal)
signing bautista in the middle of rebuild doesn’t make sense (didn’t say its a bad deal)
No, they didn’t. It was the president of the team that insisted they sign Wells. It was not the GM or the scouts.
As for Rios, he does seem to have talent. He just manages to waste it.
not a bad deal considering it isn’t 65M and only 60M. i mean if uggla and his “defense” can get 5/62 bautista and his 25-30 HR, 90RBI, good OBP, and good arm should be well worth the 5/60.
This is another bad contract for the Jays, Jose had one good year his career average is .244 and he hit half his career HRs last year. I would have given him three years max. AA had the Wells money burning a hole in his pocket. The Jays could have saved some of that money and made a good run at Fielder a proven star power hitter.
Did not mean to “Like” that because you clearly don’t know what you are talking about.
click “like” again.
Uggla has been an offensive threat for more than just 1 season, Bautista hasn’t.
uggla consistently gets on base and hits for power
bautista? consistent?
I would have been fine with a 3yr/40mil contract. I don’t like the extra years at all.
You’re ‘fine’ with 3/40 but ‘hate’ 5/60? It’s really not that much of a leap, is it?
A lot can happen in 2 years
considering Bautista is already 30, there could be a significant drop off from 30 to 35. especially considering there was a significant jump from 29 to 30.
it’s not about what you’re fine with though. it’s about the player and the organization. if both were fine with 3/40 then they probably would have just gone ahead and done 3/40
i would’ve been fine with 3/50 even. I just hate the years.
Exactly. It’s a giant risk that Toronto didn’t need to do. Use that money in the off-season to land a big fish that’s proven. I hope i’m dead wrong about this deal, but I highly doubt that Bautista is a 13mil player throughout this contract. For all we knows he turns into a 5mil player as early as next year.
You have to take it for what it is; a gamble. Just like picking prospects and drafting players is a gamble. Bautista has been solid since the end of ’09, which is encouraging. Other teams (Red Sox most notably) were somewhat aggressive in pursuing Bautista if I am not mistaken. Even John Farrell said that the Red Sox had made adjustments to Bautista in ’10, and he was still hitting the long ball.
There is just as much upside to this deal as there is downside. I’m excited for Bautista, and I hope he can keep his stride. I’m also worried, as you are, that he will regress to his previous form. I think taking to either one side is asinine. Better to stay middle of the road so to speak.
12 million is not a giant risk here. To turn into a 5 million player, he would have to lose his OBP, his slugging percentage, his defensive versatility, and his beard. It is not just losing home runs. A lot would need to go wrong for that to happen.
look, no one cares about the 12 million per year. But how good is he going to be at thirty four? thirty five?
Look at Rickie Weeks. Huge dissapointment over his 5 years prior to this 1 and when he finally gets to where they want him to be, he doesn’t have half the season that Bautista did.
Rickie Weeks was also a top 10 prospect, and had his breakout season at age 27. He plays a premium position too.
You’re right, it’ll be more like 60.
Seems odd to me that a guy who never hit more than 16 HR’s in a season all of a sudden hits 54.
Ouch 14 mill a year for 5 years is a little much to pay a guy who magically started to hit the ball. He had more homeruns last season than his past 4 years combined…
I hope this pays off
Id take him in the 5th-6th round in fantasy
No, it’s $64 million over 5 years. $14 mil per season would be $70 million.
Pretty risky considering he has had only one good season, though what a season it was.
Anyone who now says Justin Uptons deal is bad, should now calm themselves.
HAHAHAHAHA
so nobody?
New to the site?
no really, Upton’s deal wasn’t terrible. it wasn’t good, but it wasn’t bad.
If you can somehow lookup Justin Upton threads on the site, youll see what I’m saying.
Do you mean that Upton’s deal is bad for Upton? If so, sure, he could have definitely signed a much more lucrative deal. If not, ban.
dammit disqus
Makes you want to punch a hole in the universe, doesn’t it? This is the only site Disqus has given me problems.
edit
I feel bad for you guys in Toronto, not just because you live in Canada but this guys wont him more than 20 home runs next year.
HAHAHAHAHA
I feel bad for you. Period.
I dont know what you mean… eh?
Really an Eh joke? wow your pathetic.
Well, thankfully no one really cares about you and your incomprehensible statements.
Stop trolling here.
dont feel bad, we are very happy to have both canada and bautista
are you sure that this guys wont him?
Well..yeah It sucks that we live in Canada but.. atleast we have Health Care.
First bad move by AA, 14 per season is too much for a guy who has done this once ins his career in my mind. It should have been a base salary between 8-10 million, with incentives to get it up to around 14. He could very well fall back down to what he was pre 2010.
Or he might not , and youll look like a fool like the rest of the commenters here, and jays fan will all laugh and say told ya so.
It’s not a bad move. Something like taking on Vernon’s contract was a bad move. This is a gamble, one which may or may not work out. But let’s see first, eh? I think this contract says more about AA’s style than it does his judgement.
Fair point, I just don’t think it’s his best move
Doesnt matter your ownership has enough money to put the Yankees out of business but apparently he doesnt watch much baseball.
apparently you don’t do enough thinking
I don’t even understand what this statement is supposed to mean.
It means your ownership is loaded as in, has a lot of cash but they dont watch to much baseball. This means he spends his money in dumb ways such as this contact and or Vernon Wells.
“54 home runs? Sign him up!”
interesting. I didn’t know beeston told ricciardi to lock up wells
The only thing worse than a troll is a troll who writes at a grade 4 level.
I’m also confused by this comment. If you were referring to Ted Rogers, he certainely doesn’t watch much baseball, mainly because he’s dead.
rip
Fangraphs.com predicts 34/90/90. If he can do that at 3b or RF he’s definitely worth that salary but if not, well then that’s the risk.
Those are weak positions relative to others (LF, 1b) which probably explains his $13/yr salary. I’d feel more comfortable with $10-11/yr but then again the difference is what, John McDonald salary? Ha.
good deal for all parties, bautista gets his first big contract and the jays pay him like a very good but not elite player. bautista is potentially elite, so this could be a steal.
with moderate regression he is worth every cent of his contract, and if he regresses enormously then the deal is still not big enough to hamstring the jays down the road.
Ahhh yes. A return of commonsense. Thank you, thank you. It is always refreshing to see.
this right here is why the Blue Jays don’t win and wont win. you can have a GM make incredible moves, but one bad move and the team is handcuffed. just like the Wells contract.
but but but Bautists was so great in 2010?? ..AND? ..why does that mean the team has to lock him up for FIVE season? where the hell did they pull 5 from?! the Jays could have had this done for no more than 3, then if they wanted him longer, make the 4+ years team options.
he is entering his age 30 season, with only 1 great season. I think the money sucks. $14 MIL is too much for what he WILL do, but even if you forget the money, the 5 years is terrible! most would think Bautista is going to regress in 2011, the deeper 2010 stats are just ridiculous. so lets just assume he can still maintain 30+ HR in 2011. can he really be expected to maintain those numbers over 5 years? and if you say yes, based on what???
you want a player comparison. how about Carlos Pena. wasn’t really a big threat, then in 2007 he had .282/.411/.627/1.038 with 46 HR. that line is better than Bautista, and that was his age 29 season. the Rays then locked him up for THREE years at $24.12 MIL(08-$6, 09-$8, 10-$12.12). I would say Pena’s power ability is/was more than Bautista because he had done it in the past, but Pena’s AVG dropped off the table over the 3 years.
what happens in 2013 when Bautista is putting up around 20 HR and .250 AVG while being paid $14 MIL? I’ll tell you, the Jays will be stuck because nobody(not even the Angels) will want to trade for that contract. them the Jays will be paying $14 MIL for a player who won’t be producing the way he is being payed, and that leaves less money to spend elsewhere when the team expects to contend.
this isn’t as much about the money per season(even though I don’t like that), but more so the length. FIVE years for someone who had ONE great season.
Or Brady Anderson… baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderbr01.shtml
You have just made everyone on here realise how how ignorant you are lol no one will read your novel of garbage. You definately put the Special in SpecialFNK
based on??
do you really think it was wise to go FIVE years for someone who had ONE great season, and the player is now 30 years old.
if you disagree, please explain.
back loading the contract was stupid. the contract should be front loaded if anything. the player should be happy because the money is the same, but it gives the team the option of trading the player if needed. good luck trading Bautista later in the contract when he is getting up there even more in age.
I read the first line of your original post, and the first 5 lines of your reply before needing to stop, since you clearly have no idea what you’re talking about and there is just too much drivel.
EVERY multiyear contract is backloaded. it’s because 14M today is worth more than 14M 5 years from now. [edit- obviously not every… most tho. And I don’t think I’ve ever seen a front loaded contract in my life.]
And this contract, in no way shape of form, handcuffs the bluejays.
edit- No, thats trolling, I’m gonna read the whole thing. Not sure why, but let’s give it a go.
If they could have signed him to a 3 year deal, they probably would have. Given that they signed him to a 5 year deal, without club options, they obviously believe that it’s the right play.
The money doesn’t suck. He needs to be worth 12 WAR over these 5 years to be worth it. 1 WAR has gone up in price by $.5M in each of the last two years… maybe AA is on to something…
“What happens in 2011 when Bautista is….” What happens when he doesn’t? If you can see in to the future and give us Bautista’s exact stat line, why aren’t you a GM? The Bluejays ownership is one of the richest companies in the entire world, and by far the richest in baseball. If they’re really worried about winning and need money really badly to contend, they’ll supply it.
Free agents don’t just line up to come to Toronto. If they ever want to contend, they have to lock up the current talent that they have and start winning with that; maybe then FA’s will start showing up. Until then, this is about as good as there is right now.
Please go get a helmet.
IMO there is a huge difference in $14 now compared to $14 MIL in another 2-3 years. after unloading the Wells contract the Jays have plenty of room for salary in 2011. the Jays will also not be contending in 2011. I assume the Jays would like to contend in the coming years. so what happens when Bautista is regressing as he ages into his 30’s but he is still making $14 MIL a season? that leaves less money to spend where needed THEN when it’s needed more than it’s needed now. if the Jays could have front loaded this contract Bautista would still be getting the same overall money, but he would be getting most if it in the early years when the team can afford it more and Bautista is still possibly maintaining the level of what he would be getting paid.
your opinion does not override inflation, no matter how hard you try to get frontloading a contract to make sense. Most contracts are backloaded because it’s the about the same hit to a team to pay $10 now and $12 in 2 years.
Also, I assume you didn’t read my edit of the last post, since I was kind of rude and hilarious and right. If you didn’t, go do so now, I’ll wait here. Ok? You’re back? K, good. Let’s continue.
This deal doesn’t handcuff the Blue Jays, no matter how good or bad Bautista plays over the next 4 years. You wanna know why? Because they’re going to compete soon. If they compete, which they will (top 5 farm system!), Rogers, the richest ownership in baseball, will provide the funds to supply this team with whatever it needs, as long as it makes sense.
Rogers has the ability to spend more money on the team, but they still don’t have an unlimited payroll like other AL East teams.
it could handcuff the team if Bautista does regress back to his former level. that could be a big IF, but still possible. if in 3+ years Bautista’s numbers are something like he had in 2009/2007/2006 then he would not be producing up to the level he is being paid. then in order for the Jays to put up the offensive numbers it could take to be contending they could possibly have to look to an additional player to produce the numbers that Bautista was expected too and that would cost more money.
I mentioned this early. Rogers company is rich. they should have the ability to raise payroll. but, Rogers #1 priority is to the Rogers customers. Rogers customers aren’t going to want to be losing money just to see the Jays payroll rise.
how do you know they won’t pay up? such an insider. Again, 14MM is not that much for a team with the richest owners in baseball, whether they’re invested in the teams’ success or not. THIS IS NOT THE VERNON WELLS CONTRACT, IT WILL NOT HANDCUFF THE TEAM. Make sense please.
it doesn’t matter how rich the owner is. the ownership of the Blue Jays also owns the Rogers business. I have no idea how the Rogers business is doing, but I guarantee you that if the Rogers business is not making a profit they would not be taking money away from there to put into the baseball team. it’s still a business and a team should not be willing to risk losing money to “maybe” field a more competitive team.
every owner in baseball is rich, they have to be have been able to afford the team. so why does every owner not increase payroll to $100+ MIL?
because then it’s not being a smart business? there’s a certain threshold in which driving so much money in to a team without increasing income stops them from making profit. This is called math, where 3-4= -1, and so on.
This one here might take a little more work, but stay with me. If ownership is saying “we will supply the money if there is a winning product on the field” (which Rogers is saying btw), they probably see some kind of profitable situation there (this would be the opposite of the above equation, or 3-2= +1), but until then, they’ll have to figure it out with their current budget.
Here’s something crazy though: if you raise payroll, you have to also raise your income in order to secure a profit. Wild, right? Well, if you need higher income, then you probably need to sell more tickets to your games. The only way I can think of doing that is to win some games, since nobody wants to go see their team lose, which explains the garbage attendance in Toronto, despite being the 6th (?) biggest city in North America. Remember when the Jays used to win a lot in the early 90’s? If not, go look at some old videos or attendance stats, or something. They put out a winning product on to the field every night (with the highest payroll in the league) and were rewarded by shattering attendance records.
As for your strawman that you posted, not every team is ready to compete, and thus, shouldn’t boost payroll by 100MM. That would be a bad business model. Spending money != competing. KC isn’t competing, and they have a really low payroll. NYM isn’t competing, and they have a high payroll, which is why they’re a complete joke of a franchise. Not only that, but if every team increased payroll by 100M, then we’d all be exactly where we are now.
Idk, I’m probably just getting trolled. I’m getting off the internet for the night.
Guess how many games the Jays won last year.
Guess what they’re attendance level was.
People at Toronto aren’t gonna show up to see 85 or even 90 win teams. They’ll show up when they get to the playoffs. Bautista unfortunately doesn’t get us much closer to playoffs.
Special probably is trolling you.
At least the Vernon Wells deal made sense. The Jays were in contention mode.
The Jays aren’t competing now. They won’t compete until about 2013, when prospects from their good farm system are actually ready to produce. Why are they paying bautista for 2011 and 2012 when they won’t need him until 2013, and he won’t even be as good by then.
At least the Vernon Wells deal made sense.
Hi Frank,
This comment slipped past my eye. I won’t address this point, since I’m ignoring you for the rest of my life after today. I’d just like to draw your attention to a post ~50 replies from now; a reply that okbluejays started, in which you claim that both the Wells contract and the Rios contract are bad. If you haven’t noticed, that is in direct contradiction with the quoted above.
Good luck squirming your way out of this one.
(in before “just because it makes sense doesn’t mean it’s a good contract”)
well… you just made my point didn’t you?
no.
(in before “just because it makes sense doesn’t mean it’s a good contract”)
that means that you were going to say that (i.e. not me), and that I was going to show you all the ways that you’re wrong. which I did.
uhh no. you just proved my point that a deal that makes sense isn’t neccesarily a good deal. The Brave’s side of the Escobar/Gonzalez deal, for one, made sense, but it wasn’t a good deal.
explain how this is wrong.
Wow you got owned AGAIN lmao you are my favourite on here, dont ever leave!
i got “owned” on an internet forum? well jeez, maybe i should go sulk now.
based on believing that he can be a very good player. the same talent evaluators who gave us our strong minor league system believe that bautista is no fluke, and apparently the red sox think he can do it again too.
shut up man. he’s rude but he made valid points. You’re just rude and being stupid
shut up , man! lmao
I’ll give you a quarter if you go away
You think i wont take it?! Wheres my damn quarter already!
you’re still here
Wow! I think AA overpaid… I thought Bautista wanted 10mil a year, and Jays were offering 7mil. What happened? If he can repeat, deal is ok. But that is a big “if”. Personally, put Fielder in a Jays uniform for the same price!
Yeah, Fielder laughs at that deal.
I think it would have taken more to get Fielder, but he is someone who I thought would have been a MUCH better option.
meh, rather throw tonnes of money at Pujols instead. Fielder’s body scares the hell out of me
that was the arbitration figures. They met halfway between those numbers for this year and then he got his raise for the next 4 seasons.
Ok, so I was a little off… “Fielder is looking for at least eight years and $200MM or so when he hits free agency after the season” – MLBTraderumors.
Geeze, everything seems so inflated. I remember when Kelly Gruber was making about $60,000
I find it interesting that no one really considers the possibility that Jose could still get better. Sure, its highly unlikely that he’ll hit 54 or more HRs again, but his BA and defense still have room for improvement..
How easy is it too uppercut a breaking ball on the low outside part of the plate?
how easy is it to throw that for a strike?
exactly, his approach wasnt rocket science last year. he looked middle-in until he got to 2 strikes and laid off practically everything on the outer half, even if it was a strike. to get him out you practically have to paint the outside corner every time.
his strength is that he forces pitchers to be predictable and very accurate by taking away the inner half of the plate.
but still, he’s due for regression. His OBP shouldn’t drop too much, but his SLG is going to drop a significant amount.
Thank you for understanding that my comment was meant to educate myself by reading what you obviously have previously read. I suspected that since you’re not a Jays fan (or a mlb scout) that you must have based your post on something concrete. Thanks for not seeing my username and going all “oh no he didn’t (with a “finga” snap)!!!!” on me.
yay disqus hates you too
People tend to forget Bautista played great baseball at the end of 2009 and carried it over to 2010. I feel confidant he can hit 30-35hr and flirt with 100rbi.
hear hear!
there are big IFs with this.
IF Batista can main production like he did in 2010, then the deal is great because most players who put up production like Bautista did in 2010 are being paid a lot more. question is, CAN he maintain 2010?
IF Bautista regresses “some” but still produces at a good level for each of the next FIVE seasons, then the deal will be good because he will be producing at a good level.
IF Bautista regress back to pre 2010 level from 2011 on, OR if he regresses in another 2 years closer to pre 2010 level ..then the deal is terrible because you will be paying him $14 MIL a season for numbers similar to what he put up in each season that was not 2010.
what is more likely?
I know they spend. I was just razzing the guy (and others) who brag about how much money the Rogers Corp has. Almost all owners are filthy billionaires but having the money and having the willingness, or even the fiscal ability, to spend a lot are all different things.
There are filthy rich owners who won’t invest in their teams and there are filthy rich owners who due to attendance can’t afford to overspend if making a profit is their 1st priority. It’s still a business right?
Wow….my team has almost 100 years worth of history and hundreds of players so of course our incidents are going to be bigger than the Jays. I’m not going to atone for every incident just as I’m not asking you to defend Bautista. I never said he was a bad guy. What I am saying is that any batter that attacks a guy because they threw inside is a baby. BIG DIFFERENCE if they were thrown at behind their head or something where they were clearly head hunting.
you’re on a roll today
and I had 2 other comments w/ zero flag words that still haven’t posted. One even had a good Chi McBride quote. D@mn disqus. Is this Egypt? (just kidding, don’t shut me down man).
please shut him down… it will be jokes he will have nothing to do all day
Rogers is publicly traded. It doesn’t matter how large of a company it is. If they raised the Jays’ payroll without it having a positive-cashflow rationale, they would breach their duty to the shareholders.
Rogers is publicly traded. It doesn’t matter how large of a company it is. If they raised the Jays’ payroll without it having a positive-cashflow rationale, they would breach their duty to the shareholders.
The Blue Jays just give out bad contract after bad contract…..the price you have to pay to get people to come to play in Toronto. And play in one of the worst half empty ball parks in the majors. My perdiction another loosing season.
Frank Thomas signed a 2-year, $18 million
BJ Ryan signed a 5-year, $47-million
Vernon Wells signed a 7-year $126 million
Alex Rios signed a 7-year contract for a guaranteed amount of $69,835,000
Jose Bautista signed for 5-years 64 million
bold prediction old chap! They’ve already told everyone that they’re not competing this season. A+ detective work tho.
they had a winning season last year…
Normally I don’t comment on people’s spelling or grammar because, well, I just don’t care. But the fact that you butchered a 5 word sentence is forcing me to step in here.
My perdiction another loosing season.
Seriously?
VERY VERY, happy for bautista he deserves it after a great great season .He proved he could be in the everyday lineup by responding with 54 bombs ‘, wow ! league leader hopes he could keep it going , wish him the best for him and his family .
testing, testing.
effing disqus
…….ha…..ha……ha
meep
meep
does escobar really project as a longterm option?
He will hit better than hechevarria with similar defence
I can’t believe I just read all this argument.
@ Frank: yes it is. Also, when you say that there’s a difference between a good deal and a deal not making sense, are you basing a deal’s efficiency on a GM’s/player’s inability to see in to the future? Because that’s absurd. There’s a difference between what a player does produce and what he’s projected to produce. What Alex is saying, and what I think you’re missing, is that Vernon Wells was projected to produce at least 7 years and $126Mil worth of value, therefore the signing of 7/126, in a vacuum, is absolutely justifiable. Vernon Wells not producing that value has nothing to do with whether or not it was a good signing at the time.
secondly, how does the Bautista deal not make sense? He was under another year of team control, so his 2011 salary is (roughly) what it would have been, extension or no extension. There is no payroll jump this season. Beyond that, this deal signifies to me that they are ready to contend, and are probably ready to contend in 2012, as was the plan all along.
@Alex: You’ve said three times now that you’re done with this twit. Please hold up that side of the bargain. You know he’s just going to keep tarding the thread up regardless. At least if you stop acknowledging him there’s one less person feeding the trolls. You’ve made a lot of great points throughout, but this is just a no-win situation.
Hmmm, i see disqus is having some fun with us. This belongs on page two during the shorter of the two really long arguments.
Well my point was that wells was paid superstar money, the even at the time he was only above average. If they were expecting him to get better then I suppose it is justifiable, but it was still way too expensive.
I see the Jays not ready to contend until 2013. That’s just my belief so we can agree to disagree on that. By then, I don’t think Bautista will be very valuable
Historically are there any comparable players who hit 59 HR’s in their 1st 1,754 AB’s and then hit 54 in 569? I can’t think of anybody even close, except for the oft mentioned Brady Anderson.
Yes, Jose Bautista. There only has to be one to create a historical reference point.
it’s not as horrible as everyone makes it sound. cuz the thing is other teams were scouting him and reports said the sox wanted him before they got crawford so clearly they saw something they liked. AA had to sign him now or he’ll lose him forever. If bautista puts up another good year, u’re not going to get him at this price again. AA would either have to pay out the ass for him or let him go in free agency.
if he has another good year, then no one will say anything bad about the signing and AA can keep him or use him for trade bait. If he has a mediocre year AA would have only slightly overpaid for him. Cuz i dont think he’s going to hit less than 30 hr’s this year so 12-14 mil a season is not as horrible as it sounds. and he can always be traded if he hits over 30. also consider that AA ends up getting him for 8 mil this year when the arbitration offer was 7.6 and jose’s was over 10. this year alone AA paid 400k to potentially save over 2 mil.
another thing to consider is that he’s buying out a bunch of bautista’s FA years so thats always going to cost u more money. by contract end bautista willb e 35 and probably wont be able to command that salary again so if u’re bautista u’re going to be asking for as much as u can now and AA realized he could either do the deal or bautista will leave next season. considering bautista hit 54 last season with 100 walks and that fact that he’s a mentor to an all star shortstop you just brought in with another highly rated shortstop in the farm system, AA had to keep bautista on the payroll.
AA saved some money too cuz the initial reports all said 65mil when it turned out to be 60. But for the doubters, look at what AA has done in a year, dont doubt this deal until we see what happens.
It is to laugh reading these comments from wannabe’s. Stick to your board games geeks.
Reality is that the naysayer’s said all the same things about Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan
etc. before they even had their first decent year in the bigs. Mechanical changes can and do drastially change players. That’s why good coaches make a difference. I think Cito Gaston has done to Bautista to what he has done with others such as a certain fast no-hit center fielder who was a lynch pin in the glory years. He was labeled good field no hit. He became the best leadoff hitter of his time-with power no one ever suspected he had. Continue on boys. Laffin in Manitoba.