After the Rays were eliminated last night, left fielder Carl Crawford told Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune, "I don't want to leave. Everybody knows that. I like it here, and I've made that known and wish something was able to be worked out." Crawford added to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times today that it's a "high possibility I probably won't be back next year." With the Rays lowering payroll, he's out of their price range. Let's take a closer look at his free agent case.
The Pros
- Crawford is a well-rounded offensive player. He hit .307/.356/.495 this year with 19 home runs, showing the best power of his career. He's a burner on the basepaths, typically good for 50+ steals at a success rate above 80%.
- He's one of the game's best defensive outfielders in left field.
- Crawford is a relatively young free agent at 29. Perhaps he'll age better than most due to his athleticism.
The Cons
- The contract will be a major commitment - at least five years and more than $15MM per season. Crawford is the best available position player, and it wouldn't be a shock if bidding reached seven years and nearly $20MM per season. Most $100MM deals have been regrettable.
- Signing Crawford will cost a draft pick, as the Rays will offer arbitration and he'll turn it down.
- Crawford will probably remain in left field. If his speed slips and his slugging percentage suffers, his power could be below-average for the position.
The Verdict
MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named a slew of potential Crawford suitors in August, but the Angels, Red Sox, and Tigers are perceived as the early favorites. Crawford could be the first position player to sign for $100MM+ without a 20 home run season on his resume.
If there were any way possible for CC to return to the Rays, he wouldn’t be a free agent. He wants to stay in St. Petersburg but obviously the money restrictions are preventing that from happening, therefore, he’s going to be playing with Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter in the OF rather than Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton.
If these guys “really want to stay” then they would stay away from the $100mil payrolls that cause them to have to go to big markets. I don’t believe for a second that he truly wants to stay. He wants the most money.
There is no reason why he can’t take a lower salary to help the team if he really “loves” it and wants to stay.
It’s just him being PC on the subject w/ out saying “Screw y’all, I’m headed for the $100mil”
That’s obvious and why he has to leave. I don’t blame the guy for wanting to set up him and his family for life and onto future generations. You would do the same thing.
No reason to hate the guy for doing what he’s supposed to do in this situation. He probably really does want to stay, it’s been his only organization and he’s got a lot of friends there. But you, me and everyone else on planet earth would leave for the amount of money he’s going to leave for. Would you stay at your current job because you liked it there if a competitor was offering you double the money? Me either. Would you rather have him come out and say he’s all about the money and couldn’t care less where he plays? He’s smarter than that. Basically, give the guy a break.
I don’t hate him, I think he’s a great athlete. But when you’re talking 25-50million dollars – I’d stay. Sure. No joke. I can live off that the rest of my life.I’m just sick of the PC game, I’d rather them just say, I’m going to go where the $$ is.
It’s not like the Rays are going to offer him $100,000 a year. Even if he has to do a 2-3 year deal to see if they can keep the team together and make it to the WS and finally win one for the 12,000 fans that show up…
Baseball needs a salary cap.
Actually of the 22 contracts signed for 9 digits I figure:
6 were really regrettable – Lee, Hampton, Zito, Wells (despite his turn around this year), Soriano, and Arod (from the perspective of the team that signed him).
4 were/are successes – Pujols, Giambi, Manny, and Jeter
8 are too soon to tell – Holliday, Howard, Santana, Cabrera, Sabathia, Teixiera, Mauer, and Arod (the new contract)… but it should be noted that the fan bases like the deals so far.
The last 4 are Brown, Griffey Jr., Helton, and Beltran… and I figure those are all debatable.
Brown isn’t debatable. He was one of the worst pitching contracts ever along with Barry Zito.
His last 2 years were forgettable but during his contract he had an ERA of 3.23, a WHIP of 1.16, 7.7 K/9, and a 3.31 K/BB. So during his contract he was pitching pretty well. So I’m having trouble putting him in the same pile as Zito and Hampton.
The Arod thing cant be included in regrettable for a few reasons, that contract is signed by the yankees, any other team even with him playing like he has since arriving in NY would be bad but because they are the yankees and can absorb contracts like that its not sweat of their backs. Also he was Key in their WS last year…I wouldnt put his contract in the regrettable, maybe if there were a category of “sorta regrettable but not at the same time” then yes…
beltran due to his recent injuries and troubles with the mets team over all i would put in regrettable
Same with santana, the guy is on the obvious down side of his career( which means he is turning into an above average pitcher haha) is also probably regrettable..
I put ARod’s contract that he signed with the Rangers in regrettable because I think from the Rangers perspective it is. From the perspective of output, it’s a success. So yeah, it’s point of view.
Sox need to make a splash and get this guy. They missed out on Teixeira last year, Crawford is young, plays hard, and fits into Boston’s defensive mindset. If Boston lets him go to the Angels or whoever (cough Yankees), Boston will have a nice outfield of Ellsbury, Kalish and Drew/Cameron in 2011, then Drew/Cameron are gone in 2012.
Werth is a Boras client—Boston is not too eager to deal with him anymore.
Sign Crawford, trade Ellsbury to San Diego w/ Lars Anderson, Daniel Nava and a couple other high prospects not named Kelly, Rizzo or Reddick for Adrian Gonzo, shift Youk to third and there you go.
Or keep Ellsbury, sign someone like Pena/Overbay until Rizzo is ready, then your outfield for next 3 years is Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish.
I don’t want to see Boston take their chances with the young kids (Kalish, Reddick, Nava) because they’re unknowns, while Crawford is a known star. The Sox need guys who can produce when they need it.
Nobody wants Nava, and how many times do you guys have to be told that you aren’t going to get top tier talent for garbage prospects
Ok you know what, every freaking fan base has a group of people who make dumb trade proposals. Get over it and stop pretending all Sox fans are morons.
Not all, but most Red Sox fans are morons. The trade proposals that come out of Red Sox fans mouths are unrivaled. Ellsbury = Agon. Right. Ellsbury’s been reduced to a throw in at this point. Include that with a GM who’s strength is not negotiating, well, then you’re not left with much…
I agree, I’ve seen people offering Bowden and Lowrie, but come on. I know Ellsbury is coming off a down year, but it’s more injury, not production. How low do you think his stock is? Are you telling me that other GM’s aren’t seeing him after 2009, arbitration eligibile for 1st time, and are not interested? Again, the clock is ticking on Gonzo. Unless SD wants to make another push in 2011 (totally possible), the more the hold Gonzo the less return to expect.
Then Gonzo goes to FA, SD gets 2 picks and the Sox can sign him anyways LOL
You aren’t improving your stock by saying Ells is a throw in. He was injured for the 2010 season, made $496,500 in 2009, and is coming off of a 70 steal season his last full year. Far from a throw in.
“trade Ellsbury to San Diego w/ Lars Anderson, Daniel Nava and a couple other high prospects not named Kelly, Rizzo or Reddick for Adrian Gonzo”
A couple of things here… Ellsbury and Anderson’s stock are both down and Nava is anything but a prospect. He’s a 5th outfielder. That trade offer would have Hoyer laughing too hard to say “Hell no.” Any Gonzalez trade includes Kelly and Rizzo and then some.
Please, please, not another winter of “A-Gon to the Sox for Reddick, Kelly, Bucholz, Nava, and Anderson rumors”.
Sorry, unless you run the board, you’ll just have to deal with it.
Okay?
I was hoping we would never see those crazy Reddick for A-Gon rumors ever again!!!!!!!!!!!! Somebody help me!!!!!
Geezum way to overreact. Listen, none of us are MLB GM’s so let’s try to remember that before you flip out.
Of course Nava isn’t the centerpiece (what a world THAT would be).
Purple-yes, I agree the price would be high, probably Kelly and/or Rizzo. Though Ellsbury may be down (that’s debatable) because he was huge in 2009 and 2010 was a fluke/wash because of injuries. I think some combo of Ellsbury/Rizzo and a couple more could get it done.
He’s the thing: the clock is ticking on SD. They know Gonzo isn’t coming back. The longer they wait, the less teams will give up for a 3-5 month rental. No matter how much you argue people, a Gonzo trade makes sense.
The question is, will Crawford be able to play in front of more than a few hundred fans on a daily basis?
The Red Sox should sign Crawford, then flip our surplus of outfield prospects for bullpen help or any of the other huge holes.
I love the fantasy land you Yankees fans and Red Sox fans live in. Boston is not getting Adrian Gonzalez, and I don’t see Crawford going to either the Red Sox or the Yankees, they both have commitments to their outfield. I see the Tigers, Braves, and Angels going after this guy, with one of those three landing him.
What commitments do the Red Sox have to outfield?
Drew and Cameron are GONE after 2011. That’s $20M that comes off the books. All the others are prospects or Ellsbury (arbitration)
Oh, is Cameron still around? I know he is under contract for 2011 but who is to say he will be able to play next year? He certainly didn’t play much in 2010. He will be 38/39 and still experiencing the same age related medical problems he developed in ST, 2010. I do have to admit that his signing was one of the worst made thus far by Theo Epstein & Co.
The Red sox managed to win 89 games during the season recently concluded with the core of its batting order shelved before the stretch run got underway. Likewise, their preseason designated #1 starter, #2 starter, #5 starter and two middle inning relievers were lost to injuries, or played mediocre baseball, for much of the season. As for Ellsbury lets not forget that he was a .300 hitter who stole 70 bases in 2009. Not too many table setters in the AL can top that…. I doubt the Red Sox want to let him go. Oh, BTW, I agree …’NO” to Gonzalez in Boston. They all ready have an all-star 1st baseman..in Youkilis. They may need a 3B but the jury is still out on whether Beltre will go back….
This guy is my pick for being the singlemost game-changing player available right now. He’s highly underrated (if that’s possible). We all know what a leadoff man is supposed to do, but he’s a leadoff man and then some. For one thing, from seeing him play since his rookie year, he’s an absurdly great LFer. He seems to catch everything in the air to his side of the field.
I thought Crawford doesn’t like to lead-off?
I think Crawford = Angels
I’m guessing the Angels get one of Crawford or Beltre but not both. I’d say LA gets Crawford and Beltre stays in Boston.
You would be correct, Sir. I’m betting $100 says Angels sign Crawford for 5 at $100mm.
I hope that $100 is in American currency, because I’ll take that bet. It’s a perfect fit, but the Angels have much bigger issues than their OF, like, their bullpen.
yep
Hmm, I don’t know. If the Angels are increasing their payroll I could see them signing both, not that I would like them to, but I think Beltre will get what he wants because he will for sure test free agency once more and the Angels will be waiting.
Also with the Angels- one of the Cons is not an issue for them since they don’t have to give up a draft pick
Well, they do, just not a 1st rounder.
The Braves should really make a good effort to sign Crawford but I just don’t think Liberty Media will allow it. Instead Wren will be forced to pick through the retreads for a bargain baseball player.
He’s a guy whose “true” offense is somewhere in the .800-.850 OPS area but who could as easily stick up a .700 as a .900. He’s a guy who looks less than fluid in the field but always seems to grade out well on the various defensive metrics as well as in scouts’ notebooks. He’s a guy who relies as much on blazing speed as everything else in his toolbox put together for his value as a player.
He’s Eric Byrnes.
Granted, he’s Eric Byrnes hitting free agency two years younger, but he’s also played a lot more games than Byrnes had when he became a FA.
One bad hammy, and Crawford’s all done. Beware.
One bad hammy, and Crawford’s all done.
Or another pick-off throw to his balls.
Here’s the thing. Look at FA available in 2012. It’s a pretty sparse list. Unless you want to roll with guys like Ronny Cedeno, Jack Cust or Ryan Ludwick.Theo has a chance to get Carl Crawford. I think he goes with it despite having Cameron and Drew, both injury prone. Kalish starts in AAA. Crawford in LF, Ellsbury in CF and Cameron/Drew in RF. 2011 OF of Crawford LF, Ellbury CF, Kalish RF. Reddick is 4th OF. If Ellsbury/Kalish/Reddick dealt obviously someone else will be in the picture.
Pick 2 of these 4:Crawford/Werth, Beltre, Martinez,Ortiz. That’s what the Sox can afford.They need bullpen help, and space under the CBT limit for deadline deals. If they move Matsuzaka for prospects, you get to choose three.
Nice.
I like Beltre is gone as he wants West Coast. Martinez, I would love to have him back but I think Sox might get outbid. That leave Ortiz’s option and Crawford.
That said, I would love Martinez back, but they may go with someone like Napoli or Buck from what I’ve heard/read.
Sparse? Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols?
All FA next year.
Sorry, I was looking at OF available, not overall. Yes, you are correct regarding those 3.
While he didn’t state it, I think he is talking about Outfielders….
He’s headed for the Angels…for more money than Torii Hunter makes.
I don’t think the Tigers should pay that kind of money for a 29 year old player whose value is heavily based on his speed. Speed declines, always. Power, not so much.
Think the 32 year old Vince Coleman. Would you want to be paying him big money?
The only thing Coleman had over Crawford was speed and a good set of Golf clubs, so it’s not a good comparison.
I was going to comment on something that you touched base on: just how much value Crawford “really” has. Fleet-footed players tend to lose it in their early 30s and Carl is set to turn 30 soon. He comes with a risk since guys like the aforementioned Vince Coleman, and need we look at Chone Figgins? begin to dry up. He could develop into a Tim Raines type, but Rock had a much more compact, powerful build than Crawford, who is more lanky like Coleman and Figgins. Raines adeptly changed his style from 70+ steals a year in his 20s to decent power and solid BA in his latter years. The question for every GM is whether they feel Crawford will be another Coleman or another Raines.
Personally, I’d sign him to a three year deal–four max–but I’m certain his agent will try to land him a huge, long-term deal that whoever bites will regret around 2013.
vince coleman and carl crawford are to very different players. you must be an angels fan if you are saying that he should go to the angels but the tigers shouldnt get him because. you also have this mixed up. POWER DECLINES, SPEED, NOT SO MUCH. look at dave roberts, he was in his 40s and still fast. gary shefield wasnt hiting HRs all the time at the end of his career, but he was still quick
Crawford is a good player. There is no question. But, just for the heck of it lets compare him with someone who is equivalent to him on speed. Brett Gardner. Crawford will be earning based on his speed and defense and not his power so my emphasis will be on that. Here are the numbers this season: G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPSCrawford:154 657 600 110 184 30 13 19 90 47 10 46 104 .307 .356 .495 .851Gardner : 150 569 477 97 132 20 7 5 47 47 9 79 101 .277 .383 .379 .762As you see from the numbers Crawford is clearly ahead in power numbers (though this was his career high). But the argument is speed and defense. On closer observation you can see that they are not that different from Gardner. Equal in steals, Gardner has higher OBP and way ahead in BB’s. Crawford SO’s a lot as well. Crawford leads in 2B and 3B’s but one thing to notice here is that Gardner has 477 AB’s compared to 600 AB for Crawford. That’s almost 25 2B’s and 9 3B’s for Gardner if he has 600 AB’s and definitely more SB’s. In conclusion, I am in no way saying that Crawford is bad player and doesn’t deserve big bucks. But IMHO he is not worth 100 M and if he is then Gardner is worth atleast half of it and i’m sure no one is going to give him that.
Exactly. Which is why I’ve been trying to explain to my dad(who says the Yankees need Crawford) that Gardner can pretty much do what Crawford does minus the power. But of course someone will proably get out their sabermetrics and prove why Gardy isn’t going to keep this up.
Players, believe it or not, get paid not just because of their ability, but also because they are just plain big names.
With that 314 foot right field, even Crawford could hit 20 hr’s annually. I don’t see why the Yankees would bother paying big $ for left handed sluggers now…
the biggest difference is that in a full season in NY, Crawford would hit .300+ with 20 HRs, 30 2Bs, and 15 3Bs, while Gardner would hit .275 with 5 HRs, 25 2Bs, and 5 3Bs. He is just an average hitter, although he gets on base at a good pace.
The only comparison is that they play LF and steal 50 bags a piece.
You’re really missing something here. The ONLY thing that is even comparable about Crawford & Gardner is their speed and position. Gardner is a career .268 hitter, who has absolutely no power whatsoever (.367 slg) and isn’t expected to get much better than what he is right now. Crawford hits .300 every year and slugs .450-.500. They just both happen to be really fast outfielders who happen to play LF instead of CF. They are not even comparable batters at all. He also doesn’t “strike out a lot.” The average MLB players strikes out 125/600 atbats.
Is there any reason why Crawford has always been a LF and not a CF?
My guess is BJ Upton took better routes to the ball when he was moved from SS to CF. When Crawford was in CF his UZR/150 was quite good, when he got regular innings atleast.
some guys don’t feel comfortable in CF because the ball comes straight at you. He did say he prefers LF longterm to keep his legs fresh. This is what the Sox were going to do with Ellsbury, but he got hurt. Same with Rickey Henderson
Actually I’m a Tiger fan praying DD commits Ilitch’s $$ elsewhere.
Since you are a Tiger fan, remember Lou Whitaker, a skinny slap hitter with speed in his 20’s, a thick left handed power hitter in his thirties.
The Dave Roberts example doesn’t help your argument. He is in the top ten of worst all time free agent contracts, a classic example of a team overvaluing speed. The Giants ended up eating the last year of that fiasco.
There are old guys with power everywhere you look: they are valuable until they lose their bat speed. An extreme example is ex-Tiger Matt Stairs. Sheffield was valuable in his forties only because of his power, and when it declined below twenty homers a year it wasn’t worth all the drama to keep him around.
If Carl Crawford is wearing the English D next year it will be a big 2011 plus for the Tigers. But 2013 and beyond might not be pretty. I’d rather pay Adam Dunn for 35 homers as a DH, let Raburn play more, consider Jason Werth after Boras scares off the other 29 teams with excessive demands.
My argument boils down to: let someone else overpay for this declining asset.
I want the Giants to sign Crawford. He would fit in that ballpark perfectly. You’d probably see tons of triples and a few inside the park homeruns. Also he doenst look bad slide in at the 3 hole in our lineup which has very little speed in it.
Torres – CF
Sanchez – 2B
Crawford – LF
Posey – C
Huff – 1B
Ross – RF
Sandoval – 3B
Uribe – SS
I would rather have a better defensive SS but doesnt look like there are many out there. So I guess we’ll make due with Uribe.
Wow, Crawford hitting in front of Posey. If Panda regains his 2009 form you SF has a sick 3-4-5 possibility, plus w/ his speed in the field….yikes!
No, he has to go to Boston hahahah
I hate the “THis guy is getting $100 and I’m at least half as good as he is so I should $50 arguements”. Therefor, Gardner is a bad comparison.
Crawford is a great ballplayer and his game is basically three components: Speed, Power and Defense.
As he gets up in age his speed is going to diminish in all probability. A leg injury related injury can sap his speed as well. His power might even increase as he matures but he will probably never be more than a 25 hr guy. I personally can’t see anyone giving him a 5/$100 mil deal. If an injury affects his game in year 3 then that team could be paying an elite player salary but getting a Johnny Damon production (.280/.350 10-15 hrs and 15 SB). Just very risky IMO.
I doubt the Yanks are going to be in on this guy but I agree w/ the teams most of you mentioned (Red Sox, Angels, Tigers). The Sox make the most sense to me as they CAN NOT go into 2011 with Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew as their regulars. I could see CC/Ellsbury/Drew w/ Cameron as the 4th OF though.
However, in a dream world, if CC dropped down to say…….4/$60 range an OF of Crawford/Gardner/Granderson w/ Swisher at DH would be incredible. Won’t happen…..shouldn’t be thought of for more than 5 second….but sigh….that would be an incredible defensive OF.
Nobody was comparing what kind of money they make… and Gardner is actually a good comparison, and to tell you the truth, a betterlead-off hitter just because theynearly matching speed+much more plate discipline for a higher OBP. And I don’t know why you think Crawford has power ad a component in his game, if he did, he would probably be a top 10 player in all of baseball. Thy guy had to average around 13-15 HR, which is a decent number but doesen’t really put power in as a component.
I didn’t mean to mislead the conversation in the focus of salary. However, as much as I love Gardner’s game and WOULD NOT pursue Crawford because I think we don’t need him, he is a much better ballplayer than Gardner is right now. I mentioned CC”s power because he hit 19 hrs last year. I didn’t say he was a prolific power hitter but he does have power. His combo of speed and power is what makes him so special. No one had elite speed (40+ SB) and as many HRS as Crawford last year. As he gets older I can see him racking up less SB but adding a little more power. He could still be a solid 20/20 guy at age 32-33. My only question is would he be worth $20 mil per as a 20/20 guy? Probably not
He’s never been a 20-20 guy. He can’t add power, he’s probably going to decline, thus decreasing power. Speed and Defense is pretty much 80% of hi game. The power is 20%. I’m not saying Brett is a better player than CC, but it’s a good comparison. Most of both guys’ game is speed and defense, and I believe bob of their WAR’s were over 4, so it’s good comparison, no more no less.
He was 19/47 last year. 1 hr away from being a 20/20 guy. What I’m saying is that once his speed decreases I could see him swinging for the fences a little more to try and offset the speed loss. I’m not advocating him being offered a huge contract though because I still think $20 mil per is too much.
Oh and I guess Posada isn’t the full-time DH? I don’t want to see him catch more than 2 games per week, and neither do most yankee fans. Swisher wouldn’t like the idea of being a DH too, IMO.
Yeah, I made it clear that it would never happen or even be seriously considered. I was just dreaming of a OF of CC/Gardy/Grandy. Yanks don’t need it and it won’t happen.
The most frustrating thing about hearing Boston fans talk about obtaining Agonz is that they act as if there somehow is a limited pool SD can turn to. Agonz is only signed for 1/$5.5 mil. He has no trade clause and the Padres could careless whether or not the team he goes to has a legit chance at contending. It would make ZERO sense but even the Pirates could make a play for him.
A scenario that NO one has mentioned is the Rays. Yes they have to consider keeping their prospects for long term competitiveness but what if the frustration of this post-season causes them to roll the dice for 2011? They can easily shave $35 mil off by letting Pena, CC, Soriano and others walk.
How about this:
Rays trade Reid Brignac (24 w/ 5 years of control), Matt Joyce (26 w/ 4-5 years of control), Wade Davis (25 w/ 5 years of control) and then some 3 piece combo of Alex Colome, Alexander Torres, Nick Barnese, Alex Cobb, Wilking Rodriguez and Jake McGee.
for Agonz and Heath Bell
From that the Padres get a possible starting SS and RF in Brignac and Joyce and a mlb starter in Davis in case they want to let Young or Garland walk. The Rays still have a good rotation with Price, Garza, Shields, Hellickson and Neiman. They still have an OF of Jennings, Upton and Zobrist and IF of Evan, Bartlett and Rodriguez w/ Agonz replacing Pena’s defense and power at 1B? Also, they still retain a couple of top prospects lead by Matt More and Tim Beckham.
You should understand then how the rest of baseball feels when in October yanks fans pencil in top free agents in their next year roster.
The thing is there is a limited pool, but not due to money, it’s due to prospects and the fact that it’s a one year rental for some teams. Sure the Rays could go after Agon, they certainly have the farm. But with their budget getting slashed I seriously doubt Gonzalez could factor into their 2012 plans and I’m betting their going to be looking into their long term plans rather than simply the 2011 campaign. So in summary, yeah the Rays have the means but I doubt they’d do much more than ask about the price tag.
I think a more interesting scenario is one that’s been mentioned before: The Orioles. They certainly have the farm and the team has indicated they’re willing to spend to become competitive. Of course this all comes down on what is possibly a 50-50 chance the Pads even entertain offers. I’d say maybe 10 teams have the means and the will to trade for Agon.
Imagine if the O’s somehow pulled down Gonzo AND signed V-Mart. I think you could see the O’s rise in the East rather quickly.
That’s a lot to give up for one year and two draft picks (if compensation for FA remains the same under the new CBA after 12/11).TB can’t extend him. which is why BOS, CHW and TEX would be the frontrunners. They can afford the players/prospects, and they can afford the extension, which could be part of the deal.
That leaves alot of holes open for the Rays future+it’s only one year of AGon. This is probably the Rays future rotation.PriceHellboyM. MooreWade DavisAlex Colome/Alex Torres/Jake McGeeThat would leave trades open to Jeff Niemann, and any other guy who isn’t used in the rotation. Their Starting nine is gonna beOF- Desmond Jennings, B.J. Upton, Matt JoyceInfield- Evan Longoria, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, 1B(hopefully Alonso)Catcher- John JasoYoung core of kids who would contend, that’s why the veterans, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and James Shields need to be traded for prospects to clear up space. I would also try to trade B.K. Upton and take your chances with Ben Zobrist, while getting another outfielder from B.J. Trading for AGonz and Heath Bell for all of those prospects is ill advised.
I don’t know if anyone mentioned (I scanned quickly) but the fact that SD GM Jed Hoyer used to be assistant GM with the Red Sox, some feel that it may be easier to deal with the Red Sox. That and the fact that Boston covets Gonzo and are usually the most linked to a trade. Also, Gonzo fits a need for Boston-a middle of the lineup slugger, 1B who plays good defense (kinda an alternative to Teixeira?).That’s an assumption of course as Hoyer knows the Red Sox system in and out. So of course he’ll probably start w/ Kelly, Kalish, Rizzo…..ect hahaha
I can make arguments both ways as to why Hoyer being the GM of the Pads makes it easier or harder for the Sox. Truth is, probably neither.
Hoyer also loves lowrie, so a lowrie/ ellsbury or Reddick/ Bowden and anderson deal should be more than enough to land Gonzo…Move youk back to third which is his natural position.Then ship dice k to the mets for beltran and make a stab at Cliff Lee or at least an effort to keep him from the Yankees. David Ortiz time is running out .Signing v-mart WOULD BE NICE. but if he is a no go make a run for Adam dunn. He could still get 500 at bats between dh/first/ and right …Cameron is all done . even if we dont trade ellsbury if the dkay deal can go through package beltran with those prospects to sd for gonzo…could you imagine.
1. Ellsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Youk
4. Gonzo
5. Dunn
6. v-mart / saltalamacchia
7. Drew
8. Crawford
9. Scutaro
Starting 5
Lester
Bucholz
Lee
Lachey
Beckett
Reddick, Anderson, and Bowden are nobodys, they would just be fillins. it would take Ellsbury, and probably two of Rizzo/Kelly/Iglesias
and there is no way on earth that Crawford would bat 8th, do you watch baseball?
YF dude, I’m so in.
i’m rosterbating the Rays right now! and scanning lists for DH/lLF fits/deals
that may be the only major holes left with this plan (and those, really, are among the easiest spots to fill)
i don’t think this would drain the Rays longterm. i don’t think this comes back to haunt them like Teixiera from Texas did the Braves. (also think it’s a good deal for SD if it doesn’t get topped)
besides, who knows how much of a future they have in TB anyway? apparently nobody wants to go to that warehouse they play in and it’s a guess whether even a new park would solve it.
say what you want about the Marlins — they have two freakin’ World Series wins in a nanosecond-percentage of time that, say, the Cubs, Indians, others have.
What happened with delusioned ownership/management in Toronto since the 92 93 will never, ever take away Joe Carter’s home run. (Or, even, Devo’s non-triple play!). The Jays went for it and did it.
As much as I hate saying this to any YF, you know how sweet it is.
And some teams could careless about extending Agonz and are interested in a 1 year deal. Not sure why that’s being missed. Clearly, plenty of teams have traded away considerable talent to get a guy for 2 months much less two years. You can reason whether or not it was a smart move but it happens.
Cliff Lee to Seattle and then to the Rangers.
Sabathia to the Brewers.
Texeira to the Braves and then to the Angels.
FREAKIN’ Xavier Nady to the Yankees.
Matt Holliday to the A’s and then to the Cardinals.
Add to the fact that the Rays have tons of redundant talent, have about $35 mil coming off the books and Agonz and Bell can be had for about a total of $10-12 mil for 2011 and it’s not so absurd. Besides, the point was that Sox fans paint a picture that only the wealthy are going to be in on Agonz when in fact, all 29 teams could easily afford his salary for 1 year and I don’t think anyone would argue he would be well worth it on the field and in terms of generating more fan support and marketing $$$$$. Agonz has no leverage and can’t block a trade so it’s open season. Yet, Sox fans make the arguement “Well SD can be stupid if they want to but who else has the prospects, the need and the money to extend Agonz and give him the $$$ he wants”? In reality, having the need and the prospects SD want are the ONLY criteria for consideration.
Sabathia, and the second trades of Lee, Holliday, Tex were all trade deadline deals to teams that were already clearly in the playoff race and actually all of the teams had the financial ability to attempt to hold onto them… yes even the Brewers, remember they did have a bid on Sabathia. The Tex trade to the Braves is also something completely different since he had a year and a half on his contract and I believe the Braves traded him when they determined they’d couldn’t sign him long term. The first Lee trade was again to a team who could afford him in the long run, they traded him when it was clear they could get something better. The first Holliday trade… ok let’s face facts, everyone knew Beane was going to flip Holliday at the deadline hoping he could find some desperate team willing to give up a ton of prospects. As for Nady… why is he in this conversation?
All these examples are completely different that giving up a lot of prospects for a one year rental. And as I already said, it’s possible for the Rays to make a run at Agon but it’s one hell of a gamble. The Rays success has been built more around shrewd buy low deals, trades of players to help them in the long run, and talent coming in from the farm… do you really think it’s likely they’ll risk a dent in their farm to gamble everything on 2011? At the trade deadline, it will be a different story because there will be less variables, the layout of the contenders will be complete and the Rays will have a better understanding of their chances to get to the World Series. But at the beginning of the season, no, I don’t see it happening.
If, and I still stress if, Agon goes on the market during the offseason then yes, from San Diego’s perspective they’re going to take whoever makes the best offer may it be from the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Rangers, the Rays, or the freaking Royals. But you can’t tell me that every GM who is thinking about making an offer isn’t asking the questions “How could Adrian Gonzalez help us in the long run?” and “Which is better in the long run, this group of prospects or Adrian Gonzalez?” A lot of the teams with lower budgets are going to look at their prospects and say he’s not worth the rent.
As for the marketing argument… if the Rays already have trouble selling seats I doubt a single player that’s anyone but Albert Pujols will change things.
My edit button doesn’t work. What I meant was “plenty of teams have traded away considerable talent to get a guy for 2 months much less ONE year”.
I always feel as if you should be able to defend a trade proposal so here goes:
“Sabathia, and the second trades of Lee, Holliday, Tex were all trade deadline deals to teams that were already clearly in the playoff race and actually all of the teams had the financial ability to attempt to hold onto them… yes even the Brewers, remember they did have a bid on Sabathia”.
None of the teams made an attempt to extend any of the players traded for prior to the trade so they made the trade HOPEFULL that they could extend but by no means was there a guarantee. You can see the sense in trading for a player for a 2 month rental and giving up a bounty but you can’t see the sense in a team 1 win away from advancing to the ALCS making a move to try and make another run in 2011? At least from a power perspective Agonz can replace the HRS lost by the loss of Pena and CC and gives them a legit MOO bat to go with Longoria. Under my trade scenario the Rays would still have one of the best pitching staffs in the AL with Hellickson replacing Wade Davis, with Bartlett and Rodriguez as regulars @ SS and 2B thus making Brignac expendable and the OF w/o CC still has Zobrist, Upton and Jennings. Still more than enough to compete in the AL East and be a wild card contender.
“The Tex trade to the Braves is also something completely different since he had a year and a half on his contract and I believe the Braves traded him when they determined they’d couldn’t sign him long term. The first Lee trade was again to a team who could afford him in the long run, they traded him when it was clear they could get something better. The first Holliday trade… ok let’s face facts, everyone knew Beane was going to flip Holliday at the deadline hoping he could find some desperate team willing to give up a ton of prospects. As for Nady… why is he in this conversation”?
So you failed to negate anything I said. I showed you numerous examples of teams that were willing to trade away nice packages for 1 year or 2 month rentals. In this case they would have an elite player for 1 full year. I mentioned Nady because the Yanks traded away an elite prospect in Jose Tabata and a medocre prospect in Ohlendorf for 2 months of Nady. Teams desperate to compete do desperate things.
Again, I’m not saying they would do or should do it, just offering a scenario where an expected team could surpsrise us all. The A’s/Holliday was a similar situation and there’s nothing to say that the Rays couldn’t do the same thing and flip him if they aren’t in the thick of things next year.
“The Rays success has been built more around shrewd buy low deals, trades of players to help them in the long run, and talent coming in from the farm… do you really think it’s likely they’ll risk a dent in their farm to gamble everything on 2011”?
As metioned, they still can retain all of their regulars…
Garza (until 2013 or 14) SP
Shields (options until 2014) SP
Neimann (2014-2015) SP
Price (2014 I believe) SP
Hellickson ( 2015-2016) SP
Longoria (2015) 3B
Upton (2013) CF
Zobrist (2014) RF
Jaso (2015 or 2016) C
Bartlett (2012) SS
Rodriguez (2015) 2B
Jennings (2015-2016)
In the trade proposal I made I suggested that in addition to Joyce, Davis, Brignac that they add a combo of 3 from Alex Colome, Alexander Torres, Nick Barnese, Alex Cobb, Wilking Rodriguez and Jake McGee. That still 3 leaves 3 top pitching prospects along with Matt Moore (their #1 ranked pitching prospect behind Davis and Hellickson in early 2010) and Tim Becham (the #1 pick overall in 2007 and their #8 top rated prospect). So with those two and the 3 left over they’ll still retain most of their top 10 prospects (factoring in Jennings, Davis, Brignac and Hellickson graduating to the majors).
“If, and I still stress if, Agon goes on the market during the offseason then yes, from San Diego’s perspective they’re going to take whoever makes the best offer may it be from the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Rangers, the Rays, or the freaking Royals. But you can’t tell me that every GM who is thinking about making an offer isn’t asking the questions “How could Adrian Gonzalez help us in the long run?” and “Which is better in the long run, this group of prospects or Adrian Gonzalez?” A lot of the teams with lower budgets are going to look at their prospects and say he’s not worth the rent”.
Many teams might evaluate their farm, find rednundantcy at certain positions and feel that he might be worth the risk, especially if they play in divisions that they might find “winable”.
The Rays would have almost the exact same team AND can replace CC with Jennings, Pena w/ Agonz and Soriano w/ Bell and still come out saving about $14 mil.
CC ($10 mil) vs Jennings ($400k) = $9.6 mil saved
Pena ($10 mil) vs Agonz ($5.8 mil) = $4.2 mil saved
Soriano ($7.5 mil) vs Bell ($4 mil but due an arb increase) = $0 savings probably
Let walk, cut, non-tender possibilities= Hawpe, Qualls, Shoppach, Navarro, Aybar, Kapler, Sonnastine, Baldelli = $8 to $10 mil saved and could be replaced by players making league minimum.
“As for the marketing argument… if the Rays already have trouble selling seats I doubt a single player that’s anyone but Albert Pujols will change things”.
This arguement wasn’t really directed towards a Rays scenario but no one could argue that the Rays would send a message to fans that they are contending to win something in 2011 and would help retain what they had vs losing what they could during a 2011 rebuilding year.
Again, my bigger point was to show how Agonz could go to any team regardless of the teams budget restraint. He has no leverage to ask for a contract and can’t block a trade so that opens it up beyond just the major market teams.
I’m pretty sure the Rays would want to trade Bartlett first. He’s a veteran, and he could net alot more in a return, and Brignac had no injury history like Bartlett. Furthermore Bartlett is also going through arbitration, which would make him too expensive for the Rays. I’ve also heard Andrew Friedman talk about making Brignac thir future shortstop.
Carl Crawford will sign with the Astros n play along side his best friend Bourne. 1.) Bourne CF 2.) Crawford LF 3.) Pence RF 4.) Lee 1B 5.) C Johnson 3B 6.)Keppinger 2B 7.)Castro C 8.) Manzella SS 9.)Pitcher