In March, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd explained the double-edged sword of Jorge de la Rosa's 2010 performance, talking to Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post:
"I'm not that concerned that we wouldn't have a shot to keep him at the end of the year. Now, if he goes out and wins 17 or 18 games, that's going to be somewhat problematic. But I hope he does, because that means we're going to be in pretty good shape."
O'Dowd did not face that good kind of problem in 2010, as De La Rosa missed ten weeks with a torn tendon in his finger. The lefty still hopes to re-sign with the Rockies, as he told Jim Armstrong and Troy E. Renck:
"I would love to come back. I really like it here. But I don't know if it makes sense for them to bring me back."
From the Rockies' point of view, it's still difficult to know what to expect from De La Rosa moving forward. Since returning from the DL on July 9th, he's got a 4.82 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and eight home runs allowed in 52.3 innings. His groundball rate remains high, so his home run rate should come down.
In March Armstrong said the Rockies offered three years and about $11MM to cover the 2010-12 seasons. Now he and Renck say De La Rosa actually rejected a two-year offer in the $9MM range, with a club option for '12. The pitcher earned over 60% of that amount in 2010 alone, so his agent at TWC Sports was right to advise turning down the Rockies' offer.
David Price, Francisco Liriano, and C.C. Sabathia – those are the only other lefty starters who have a harder average fastball than De La Rosa this year (70 inning minimum). De La Rosa doesn't turn 30 until April, and he'll rival polar opposite Ted Lilly as the best free agent southpaw available after Cliff Lee. De La Rosa could find upwards of a three-year, $24MM offer, but it's always scary to sign a guy walking a batter every other inning.
I know they have a lot of other priorities, but I think that De La Rosa would look great in a Cardinals uniform. I think another lefty in that rotation really helps out and Dave Duncan is great at working players through control issues.
That said, the Cardinals have a lot to consider when it comes to internal contracts so I don’t think they are ready to dole out contracts to outside players.
I think the Rockies should try to retain him.
-wtk
De La Rosa isn’t that great… easily replaceable.
he just managed to win 16 games last year, while pitching very much like an average pitcher.
If he had finished with a 13-11 record, no one would care about him.
He’s sort of an AJ Burnett type (Strikeout pitchers, AJ had 17 wins in Toronto… but then again, Burnett had success in Florida)…
although, De La Rosa did show streaks of being quite good, and his numbers were noticeably better on the road… perhaps if he leaves Colorado, he could develop into a 3rd starter or something around that
perhaps. . but with long term deals being the rule not the exception, free agent markets have been pretty thin in recent years, leading to average to slightly above average players getting star contracts. He’ll easily get the $24/3 deal suggested above.
Teams will bid on Lee in huge numbers, only 1 team will get him, the rest will look to jorge and ted to fill needs.
Agreed.I think Lilly is clearly better (and more proven of course) and he’ll get AT LEAST a 3 year/40m… probably something more around 4 year/54m
No way Lilly gets that much. Yes, he is very good, but he has injury history and he isn’t your typical #1 or #2. I’d say something like 4/40 million at most.
What Injury history?he’s averaged 32 starts over the 4 season span of 2006-2009and has been basically healthy all this year.There’s no reason why he shouldn’t get around 4 year/54m…that’s still cheaper than other pitchers of similar levels like A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and John Lackey… and Lilly is probably better than all of them right now, or compared the 1 year before these guys signed the contracts…Here’s the 4 seasons prior to the contracts for all these guys…Lilly 2007-201052-34
3.61 ERA1.12 WHIP3.31 K/BBBurnett 2005-200850-38
3.80 ERA1.28 WHIP2.68 K/BBLackey 2006-200955-33
3.50 ERA1.24 WHIP3.02 K/BBLowe 2005-200854-48
3.59 ERA1.23 WHIP2.63 K/BB
No. He was injured for a majority of this season.
Majority? He has started 23 games… Majority would imply that he should have at least 47 starts, when in fact he’s only missed about 6 starts.
Lilly will be 35 entering the 2011 season, same as Lowe was entering the 2009 season. Their contracts should be comparable. Though I think most other teams saw Lowe’s contract as excessive, and teams seemed more conservative in ’09-’10 than they were in ’08-’09. Lowe had absolutely zero injury history when he signed that contract, as well.
A.J. and Lackey were both 31 years old when they signed their last contracts, a good 4 years younger, so I don’t think they compare as well.
My guess is Lilly receives 3 years/$40m with an option for a 4th year.
Fair enough…
Burnett was 32 to start the 09 season though
pitchers wtih a short track record very seldom get long-term deals. He has been floating around for awhile but this is the first success he has experienced. I have a hard time seeing a smart GM making a 3 year 8 Mil per commitment to him. Wolf, Blanton, and the other slightly above avg mlb pitchers gettign the nice deals at least had a few years of success not 1 1/2
Unless you’re looking at his wins/loss total, which is completely idiotic in itself, you can’t say he’s enjoyed only 1.5 years of success, his era has been under 5 the last 3 seasons. So if he has been the same, pretty average pitcher the last 3 seasons, how can you suggest that he doesn’t have the track record to garner a 3 year contract like wolf, blanton ? Considering your whole argument was based solely on that fact, pretty much chalk it up as wrong.
you said his ERA under 5 the last 3 years like it was a major accomplishment. Dude has less of a track record than both Blanton and Wolf had. Their ERA’s were in the 3’s and 4’s not “Under 5”. Think twice before you call someones post idiotic when you follow it with that. He will not get 3 years and 8 mill on the open market. If he gets a 3 year 16-18 year deal he should pull a hamstring running as fast as he can to sign it
you tool. Why don’t you try some reading comprehension.. No where did i state that De La Rossa is god’s gift to pitching. if you read my original post, it sais that AVERAGE pitchers get above average contracts because of a thin FA market.. you rebuttal with oh he’s only had 1.5 good years so won’t get a contract like that. and I rebutted saying that he has been pretty consistent the last 3 years so your theory is disproved. I mentioned he’s had an era under 5 the last 3 years to prove his consistency which is what you were arguing, not his skill. Again reading comprehension dingbat
you must be 12 or younger. He isnt even an average pitcher. League avg ERA in the NL is 4.11 over the last 3 years. His avg ERA over the last 3 years has been over 4.7. Career ERA over 5.00. Dude isnt a league avg pitcher. FA market is thin, no doubt about that. He won’t get paid “just becasue he is the best of the crap available” This off-season you will see a lot of trades as opposed to poor finiancial investments in less than proven commodities. You realize that Armando gallarga has better numbers than De Larosa over the last 3 years? Guy is a number 4 or 5 starter.
You just argue for the sake of arguing. I’m done with you little girl. like i said reading comprehension classes would be a great investment for you. And yes he will get paid because he is the best of the available crap, that is my point and the fact that you cant understand that leads me to believe that you are in way over your head and intelligence.. but i guess you think you know more then Tim too right?
wow, you are proof that the world is getting dumber. Don’t know more than anyone. Just presented facts that show he isnt even league avg. Go back to homeroom.
again, reading comprehension
I think he deserves that money or more. The guy, when healthy is definetly above average starter. From June 4th of last season until the end of last season he was the best pitcher in Basebal and he just hasn’t been healthy pretty much all season. I think it’s going to be really exciting and intruiging this off-season determining where Hip hip Jorge goes. I think the Tigers and Padres might be decent fits.
pirates should pick him up
is PNC pitcher or batter friendly??? i cant remember which way that plays…
It is Visiting-Team Friendly.
-wtk
your wrongsurprisingly for a team that is 42 games under .500 were only 7 games under at home
42-84 overall and 29-36 at home
Pitcher friendly to left, left center, center, and somewhat right center. Right is definitely hitter friendly.
However i wouldn’t mind seeing him in a bucs uni next spring. He would be at the top of their rotation that is for sure.
He’d be a good fifth starter for the Tigers next year–pull a Brandon Lyon, pitch great for one year, and then flip that into a better multi-year deal.
Jorge De La Rosa is a good pitcher, he can become much better if he goes to St. Louis, but i’d have Ted Lilly over him any day.
the question and gamble for anyone signing JDLR is will he bounce back to 2009 form when he FINALLY put it all together, or was that some kind of arbitration, and the finger injury setting him back?
He’ll be a huge risk/huge potential
If you look at his 2008, and 2010 stats they are pretty comparable to his 2009 stats.
Pretty sure you meant aberration.
no…last year was a negotiation…. yeah I meant aberration, sorry
Tim, what’s De La Rosa’s average fastball compared to Jonathan Sanchez’s?
In the time it took you to write this, you could’ve looked it up yourself.
fangraphs . com
I think he’d be a great fit for the Mets. A good middle of the rotation starter that can fill the last open spot in the rotation. The move from Coors to Citi would only help him. Santana/Pelfrey/Niese/ De La Rosa/ Dickey with Mejia waiting in the wings would be very good.
If De la Rosa would lower his walk rate to something in the 2.8-3.0 per 9 IP (instead of 4.2-4.3) then he would become a very valuable pitcher. As a Rockies’ fan it’s maddening to watch a guy with his stuff try to nibble on the edges instead of just going right at the hitters.
That said, in his time with Colorado his cumulative ERA+ is 100, so he’s right at league average in that department. He has allowed less than one hit per inning (369 H in 390.1 IP) and right at one strikeout per IP (394). If it weren’t for 183 walks in that same time frame we’d be talking about a guy who would have likely posted ERA’s in the low 3’s and would be looking at an even more significant payday this off-season.
I think he’ll come back to Colorado, ultimately, for about that 3 years and $24-25 million mentioned earlier.